So first of all, I just wanted to let everyone know that I facebook messaged just about every state medalist I could find and asked them if they would like to share anything about their states experience for the blog. Some stories from these responses will be coming out soon. If you would like to contribute your thoughts on states, even if I haven't contacted you or you weren't a medalist, feel free to message me and I can add your thoughts into the posts I will be making over the next week or so.
I will be breaking down the races in the near future, just giving my opinions on things and looking back at old rankings and predictions and seeing what stands out. I just want to learn a little bit more about the meet (since I was not there unfortunately) beforing going to in depth.
But now that I got that housecleaning out of the way, I want to talk about next year. Yes, this year just ended, but heck, I love talking about speculatory things, rather than pure facts so I will start off my states coverage with what this means for the future.
I'll start off with AA because quite frankly, we are picking up right where we left off. 24 out of the top 30 runners return for next cross country season, and 22 of those returners will be Seniors in 2012. The entire top 5 is back, which includes Brendan Shearn, who has been dominate this season, only losing at Paul Short.
The defending champion has to be the favorite to win the next season. However, Ryan Smathers was the top returner a year ago, coming off an excellent track season, yet he could never put it together this season and finished 5th for the second straight year.
Brendan certainly made a more significant jump than a lot of these runners, Williams and Smathers and Mullen all beat him a year ago at states. Luke Jones also made a pretty sizable jump to the front, taking 2nd place, losing by just 2 seconds, and giving hope for maybe a surprise in 2012.
The boys from Northeast Bradford are both back, and although Jewett seems to race very well all season, the state course has bested him now on 3 occasions. Sam Williams, meanwhile, has excelled on the course, and has potential to surprise people on race day.
And how about Barrett Kemp? He achieved a lot this season as well and although he didn't quite pull through at states, he was still a top 15 finisher (13th) and really made noise all season (a couple of guys had him as an upset pick to win the championship).
Heck, its hard to keep track of everyone coming back so there are going to be names left out, but I'll throw down one more: Hunter Johnston. Really made a lot of great improvements this season and at the beginning/middle of the season he really looked strong. He faded down the stretch, but with an extra season under his belt he could definitely make noise at the state championships.
Defending champs Quaker Valley lose 3 out of their top 4 while North East, Holy Redeemer, Masterman, and Canton return 3-5 out of their top 5, Canton returning all 5. Redeemer doesn't have the front runner North East has which will come in handy. District 3 champs Anville Celona return their entire top 5 including 2 state medalists. A bit off an off day for their normal #3 man really cost their team at staes.
Now on to the AAA scene, where things will certainly be a bit harder to digest. A lot of guys still return, especially out front with 3 out of the top 4 guys coming back, including defending state champion Conner Quinn. Quinn didn't get to the top the same way Shearn did, he was a pretty big upset. Now the question becomes will he be a Shawn Cavanaugh and Ian Gottesfield or a Craig Miller.
Quinn will have his handsful next year with probably my break out performer of the year Dan Jaskowak. I will say it now officially on record, this kid is legit. I didn't believe it, I wrote him off all season, but he was 2nd at the state championships over a lot of very talented runners and he will not be afraid of the big stage next year.
You can make a strong argument Jaskowak, not Quinn, will be the favorite in 2012.
Brent Kennedy's 7th place finish at states is the highest finish a sophomore has had at states since Vince McNally in 2005 (3rd). Kennedy becomes the top returner out of the WPIAL, which has produced state champion Ryan Gil and Footlocker Finalists Rad Gunzenhauser and Zach Hebda (along with Gil) over the previous two seasons. I wasn't surprised to see Kennedy up this high, he's been mixing it up with the top guys all season, and eventually things were going to click.
Now how about the PCL guys? The top two finishes by PCL individuals ever at the state championship were turned in by Tom Coyle and Dan Savage. Coyle, who had previously bested Savage twice in a row at Belmont, may have made a tactical error going to the front so early in the race. Meanwhile Savage leaves as one of states biggest surprises, running a very smart race.
This is Coyle's first real season mixing it up in XC. For Savage this also a somewhat new experience, although he was a top runner on a top team a year ago. Certainly these two have not had the previous seasons of work guys like Conner Quinn have had, which should make things interesting in a season.
Still can't count out guys like Jeff Groh and Max Norris who had big District races, but struggled at states. They have a lot of potential to make noise in 2012.
Alec Kunzweiler catapulted into the mix for state champion in a season as well, after a relatively low key season in comparison to the other guys out front, Kunzweiler stayed under the radar until finally popping his 14th place finish at the state championship. He was 9th at the District 3 Championship just over a week earlier.
This is Kunzweiler's first real cross country season where he has been this competitive after a break out track season last spring, similar to the aforementioned Coyle of LaSalle.
North Penn was the surprise state champions in 2011. Surprise probably isn't a strong enough term to describe the upset they pulled over the nationally ranked Cardinal O'Hara squad. However, North Penn got a lot of preseason talk. I said myself I thought they were underrated in the preseaon polls. I thought they would peak at the right time and I thought they would give Henderson a run for their money at Districts. But they didn't quite do that. So I jumped off the bandwagon and I got stunned at States.
But the point is, they didn't come from complete obscurity to take the title. They had three very good runners out front and they built around those guys through to 6 guys. And they returned practically their entire top 7 coming into the season. So yeah we knew they'd be good.
So Cardinal O'Hara, the best team all year besides states (when admittedly it matters most) returning 4-5 of their top 5 (I am fairly convinced Bilotta is a Senior this season and that's a type-o, but he was listed as a Junior at Distrits too so perhaps I missed a memo somewhere) is going to be very good yet again. They should be the favorites next fall for the state title.
However, North Penn will still be good, returning MacCauley and host of youngsters with valuable championship experience. Also their school is huge. They will find guys. I don't think North Penn will even be District champs in a year, but you just can't rule a team like this out at the beginning of the season.
North Allegheny loses A LOT. There young guy Seel got some valuable experience to compete tough next season, but let's be honest here, they are going to struggle to mix it up with top teams in the WPIAL, let alone the stae, on paper. But hey, they are also huge and always good, so who knows what we will be saying after track season.
The team to watch in 2012 will be the West Chester Henderson boys squad. They return their top 3 from districts (all sophomores) and their #3 from states, while they also will get back stud 2010 freshman Reiny Barchet from injury. These young sophomores will now all be experienced juniors, aging in a very good system. Russell and Haugh learned a lot this season. I didn't expect them to have a huge showing at states this year with their lack of experience, but next year they should be very dangerous.
And hey how about CR North? Emery gets sick and has a rough finish to the season but the team still pulls out a 6th place finish at states. They are another very well coached team and they return a lot of weapons including Emery and Ross Wilson and James Zingarini who had very impressive stretch runs and great finishes at states. CR North returns their entire top 5 from states.
Its kind of a similar story down the board, out of the top 10 teams, all but Holy Ghost Prep (10th) return at least 4 guys. CR North returns 5 out of their 5, O'Hara returns 4 to 5 out of their top 5, 11th place finishers Cumberland Valley return their entire top 7, LaSalle and Henderson return their top 3 etc etc. The point is the team title should be very competitve next year after a somewhat down year this season (132 points to win the title is a decent amount in my opinion).
-train
Results of the Prediction Contest
So I had a pretty decent year prediction wise, I was fairly good on some guys and obviously took a huge swing and miss on others, but I guess we can worry about that later on when I analyze these races and let you know what things surprised me and which things I was wrong about, etc (thankfully there were not too many things I was wrong on, but there were plenty). Right now I just want to post up some shout outs to the guys who beat me in the prediction contest here on the blog.
So I got 19/25 medalists on both sides, 38/50 overall so thats not to shabby for me personally. I was pretty happy. On the AA side we had just one entry: "that AA guy" and he nailed it, getting an impressive 20 out of 25 medalists.
Congrats to "that AA guy".
On the AAA side we had much more entries and I apologize if I miscounted anyone's entries, but no one scored any higher than I did for these predictions. A bunch of guys came close, and one poster had the same number as I did, 19. He did not leave his name, but he was the only one to predict his medalists in alphabetical order. So congrats to you sir on a well predicted meet.
Great job by everyone who competed, and thanks again for making this a great state meet. Still lots of coverage on the way from etrain and the blog so stay posted for this upcoming week.
So I got 19/25 medalists on both sides, 38/50 overall so thats not to shabby for me personally. I was pretty happy. On the AA side we had just one entry: "that AA guy" and he nailed it, getting an impressive 20 out of 25 medalists.
Congrats to "that AA guy".
On the AAA side we had much more entries and I apologize if I miscounted anyone's entries, but no one scored any higher than I did for these predictions. A bunch of guys came close, and one poster had the same number as I did, 19. He did not leave his name, but he was the only one to predict his medalists in alphabetical order. So congrats to you sir on a well predicted meet.
Great job by everyone who competed, and thanks again for making this a great state meet. Still lots of coverage on the way from etrain and the blog so stay posted for this upcoming week.
Results of the etrain states fantasy draft
I redeemed myself after a pretty poor showing last year. Great job by all the participants, really fun year, hope we can do it again next year.
2nd Rob (104)
Steiner- 5
Harriman- 10
Savage- 4
Deluca- 48
Hertzog- 37
Rotz
Miller
Collins
9th Jae (205)
Magaha- 6
Ferruzzi- 64
Strynkowski- 45
Felts- 76
Willig
Seel
Kunzweiler- 14
Padgett
4th Brendan (117)
Norris- 32
Mountain- 21
DiSilvio- 22
Israel- 16
Williams
Todaro- 26
Stone
Siegel
6th Quinn (134)
Hibbs- 13
Replogle- 24
MacCauley- 17
Haugh- 46
Wilson- 34
Zatlin
Horgan
Haky
7th Jake (143)
Quinn- 1
Wilkinson- 19
Davis- 30
Kane- 58
Huemmler
Trimble- 35
Linse
Smart
5th Demetrius (122)
Jaskowak- 2
Moran- 15
Russell- 27
Muldoon- 42
Emery
Downs
Zigirani- 36
Nictora
8th Jonah (160)
Runco
Coyle- 8
Kuchta- 29
Lednak
Appman- 20
Pastore- 49
Fisher- 54
Lang
3rd Chris (104)
Willig- 9
Kennedy- 7
Groh
Wakely- 25
Pondel- 23
Martin- 40
Luoco
Bollens
1st Jarrett (93)
Kelly- 3
Burke- 12
Katora- 41
Billotta- 11
Tellin- 28
Ausel- 39
Schettler
Campbell
2nd Rob (104)
Steiner- 5
Harriman- 10
Savage- 4
Deluca- 48
Hertzog- 37
Rotz
Miller
Collins
9th Jae (205)
Magaha- 6
Ferruzzi- 64
Strynkowski- 45
Felts- 76
Willig
Seel
Kunzweiler- 14
Padgett
4th Brendan (117)
Norris- 32
Mountain- 21
DiSilvio- 22
Israel- 16
Williams
Todaro- 26
Stone
Siegel
6th Quinn (134)
Hibbs- 13
Replogle- 24
MacCauley- 17
Haugh- 46
Wilson- 34
Zatlin
Horgan
Haky
7th Jake (143)
Quinn- 1
Wilkinson- 19
Davis- 30
Kane- 58
Huemmler
Trimble- 35
Linse
Smart
5th Demetrius (122)
Jaskowak- 2
Moran- 15
Russell- 27
Muldoon- 42
Emery
Downs
Zigirani- 36
Nictora
8th Jonah (160)
Runco
Coyle- 8
Kuchta- 29
Lednak
Appman- 20
Pastore- 49
Fisher- 54
Lang
3rd Chris (104)
Willig- 9
Kennedy- 7
Groh
Wakely- 25
Pondel- 23
Martin- 40
Luoco
Bollens
1st Jarrett (93)
Kelly- 3
Burke- 12
Katora- 41
Billotta- 11
Tellin- 28
Ausel- 39
Schettler
Campbell
Friday Stat: State Medalists
I figure since this has been the main topic of discussion for everyone trying to put together last minute entries into the contest, a little bit of a stat breakdown of how things have gone in the past won't hurt. I'm sorry AA kids but this next section is going to be exclusively AAA, it's what I know best and I know all the medalists of the last 5 years in order by pure memory so that will speed up the process a tad. First I'm just going to start off listing the medalists by school, in terms of which school is most prevelant. One * means Junior year, two means sophomore year. These are the medalists from the last 5 years:
West Chester Henderson (8)- Aldrich*, Ferry, Jervis, Aldirch, Kellar**, Kellar*, Kellar, Andrews
North Penn (7)- Montijo, Miles**, Hoagland, Miles*, Bernitt*, Miles, Bernitt
Coatesville (7)- Dawson, Panulla, Dawson, Ward, Leonard, Mahoney, Rosato*
North Allegheny (7)- Jacob*, Jacob, Taylor, Gil**, Gil*, Gil, Steiner
North Hills (5)- Kush*, Silienks*, Hebda, Kush, Silienks
Altoona (5)- Endress**, Fischer, Endress*, Endress, Replogle*
Hatboro Horsham (5) - D. Hibbs, Topper, S. Hibbs**, S. Hibbs*, Quinn**
Boyertown (4)- Weller, Dennin*, Dennin, Kelly*
Perkiomen Valley (3)- Tarsnane*, Tarnsnane, Perozze
Unionville (3)- Springer, Burkhardt*, Fischer
Wissahickon (3)- Miller, Crits, Farrell
Seneca Valley (3)- Stauffer*, Cipro, Stauffer
CR North (3)- Wallace, Campbell*, Campbell
Tunkhannock (3)- Ayers**, Ayers*, Ayers
CB West (3)- Jones*, Jones, Scarpello
CB East (3)- J. Izewski*, J. Izewski, A. Izewski
West Chester East (2)- LaColla*, LaColla
Mt. Lebanon (2)- Gunzenhauser, Moran*
Lower Merion (2)- Furcht, Berman
Conestoga Valley (2)- McNally**, McNally
St. Joe's Prep (2)- O'Sullivan*, O'Sullivan
Pittsburgh Central Catholic (2)- VanKooten, Gasior
Whitehall (2)- Kacyon*, Kacyon
Parkland (2)- Stepp, Gillette
LaSalle (2)- O'Kane*, Trainer
Grove City (2)- Kildoo**, Kildoo
Dallastown (2)- Lockwood, Moyer
Meadville (2)- Ross, Steiner**
Bishop Shannahan (2)- Bodary*, Bodary
Carlisle (2)- Hurston, Pope
Strath Haven (1)- Speare
Baldwin (1)- Bishop*
Valley View (1)- Wilkinson*
Central Dauphin (1)- Schrom
O'Hara (1)- Garrity
Father Judge (1)- Kehl
Crestwood (1)- Micikas
Gateway (1)- Krystek
Dubois (1)- Plaszenski
Exeter (1)- Greth
CB South (1)- Gregor
Upper Dublin (1)- Palmisano
Holy Ghost Prep (1)- Pierce
Owen J Roberts (1)- McClimmon
Hazleton Area (1)- Guest
Red Lion (1)- Kareis
Neshaminy (1)- MacDonald
Blue Mountain (1)- Reilly
Cedar Cliff (1)- Johnston
Canon Mac (1)- Gregory
Hempfield (1)- Hull
Governor Mifflin (1)- Mohn*
Indian Valley (1)- Monroe
Gettysburg (1)- Beegle
So now that we got this massive list out of the way, just to prove the point of where most medalists have come from, I'm going to lay down some other stats about these 125 guys. For starters lets look at a Districts breakdown.
D1- 19+18+8+8+8 =61
D2- 1+0+2+1+2 =6
D3- 1+3+3+4+2 =13
D6- 0+0+1+3+2 =6
D7- 2+4+4+5+7 =22
D9- 0+0+1+0+0 =1
D10- 1+0+1+1+1 =4
D11- 1+0+3+1+1 =6
D12- 0+0+2+2+2 =6
Clearly District 1 has been slighlty inflated by the first two years (2006 and 2007 where they snagged a large majority of the medalist spots). District 7 is the next most prevelant, coming on strong the past couple years, and District 3 is also ahead of the curve. It is worth noting that the PCL did not join the PIAA until the 2008 season. Assuming they keep up their pace of 2 medalists a year they would be at a total of 10, making them the 4th highest district in terms of medalists.
Now we will check in on the classes of the individuals who recieve medals.
Freshman 0+0+0+0+0 =0
Sophomores 0+2+4+3+1 =10
Juniors 7+5+6+9+6 =33
Seniors 18+18+15+13+18 =82
This one is obvious. Experience and age and developement helps you perform well on the tough states meet course. About 2 sophomores a year meadal at the big dance, and a freshman hasn't done it since McNally. Seniors from the big districts are usually safe bets to pick to medal at states.
Now here's an interesting question: how many returning medalists medal again the next year? Well there were 43 returning medalists over the past 5 years (the 33 Juniors and the 10 sophomores), but 7 of those came from this past season and we do not know how they did this year so they are thrown out leaving 36. (9 sophs and 25 jrs)
2006-1007 7/7 Juniors, 6/7 finished higher than the previous season
2007-2008 4/7 (2/2 Sophs, 2/5 Juniors), 3/7 Finished higher than the previous season
2008-2009 7/10 (3/4 Sophs, 4/6 Juniors), 3/10 Finished higher than the previous season
2009-2010 9/12 (2/3 Sophs, 7/9 Juniors), 8/12 Finished higher than the previous season
So what we can conclude from this is not much definitively. However, we can say that is highly likely that some of the 7 returners from last season will not finish as high as they did the previous season. In addition, a few of them may not even medal. Over the past 4 seasons 20/36 have improved, barely over half of the returnees. That means between Quinn, Hibbs, Steiner, Moran, Wilkinson, Kelly, and Replogle about half of them won't finish as high as they did the previous season. My money would probably be on Hibbs and Moran out of the group, last few are toss ups.
Relating some things back to track, 4 out of the last 5 state champions in the 3200m were medalists the previous fall. Burkhardt is the one exception, and he was a medalist 2 previous falls ago. Therefore, 4 out of the last 5 state champions in the 3200m were medalists their Junior cross country season, before winnining the title their senior season (the one exception here is another Unionville guy, Matt Fischer).
There have been very few true 800 guys that have ever medaled at states, its mostly just milers and 2 milers. From my own opinion the only mainly 800 guys who have medaled at states in the past 5 years are Chris Ferry and Zack Montijo. Endress was the only guy with an 800 PR under 1:52.4 at the time of getting his state medal. The only other guys with PRs even in that ball park over 800m are probably Palmisano and Crits. I may have missed another name in that mix, so I apologize about that if I did. Neither of those guys had 800 PRs that quick when they medaled. Palmisano ran 1:52 as a Junior but failed to medal as a Senior.
A runner who is a primary miler has not won states in the past 5 years. 2 out of the 5 have run very quick over 1600m, but all are mainly 2 milers. The exception is Brad Miles who ran around 4:18 and 9:15 but they don't really compare to the times of the other guys who are all under 9:05. Weller and Gil both are in the 4:12s or so in terms of PR.
Hopefully this gets you thinking about the big dance tomorrow, I'm excited and looking forward to seeing how things play out and memorizing another set of medalists.
-train
West Chester Henderson (8)- Aldrich*, Ferry, Jervis, Aldirch, Kellar**, Kellar*, Kellar, Andrews
North Penn (7)- Montijo, Miles**, Hoagland, Miles*, Bernitt*, Miles, Bernitt
Coatesville (7)- Dawson, Panulla, Dawson, Ward, Leonard, Mahoney, Rosato*
North Allegheny (7)- Jacob*, Jacob, Taylor, Gil**, Gil*, Gil, Steiner
North Hills (5)- Kush*, Silienks*, Hebda, Kush, Silienks
Altoona (5)- Endress**, Fischer, Endress*, Endress, Replogle*
Hatboro Horsham (5) - D. Hibbs, Topper, S. Hibbs**, S. Hibbs*, Quinn**
Boyertown (4)- Weller, Dennin*, Dennin, Kelly*
Perkiomen Valley (3)- Tarsnane*, Tarnsnane, Perozze
Unionville (3)- Springer, Burkhardt*, Fischer
Wissahickon (3)- Miller, Crits, Farrell
Seneca Valley (3)- Stauffer*, Cipro, Stauffer
CR North (3)- Wallace, Campbell*, Campbell
Tunkhannock (3)- Ayers**, Ayers*, Ayers
CB West (3)- Jones*, Jones, Scarpello
CB East (3)- J. Izewski*, J. Izewski, A. Izewski
West Chester East (2)- LaColla*, LaColla
Mt. Lebanon (2)- Gunzenhauser, Moran*
Lower Merion (2)- Furcht, Berman
Conestoga Valley (2)- McNally**, McNally
St. Joe's Prep (2)- O'Sullivan*, O'Sullivan
Pittsburgh Central Catholic (2)- VanKooten, Gasior
Whitehall (2)- Kacyon*, Kacyon
Parkland (2)- Stepp, Gillette
LaSalle (2)- O'Kane*, Trainer
Grove City (2)- Kildoo**, Kildoo
Dallastown (2)- Lockwood, Moyer
Meadville (2)- Ross, Steiner**
Bishop Shannahan (2)- Bodary*, Bodary
Carlisle (2)- Hurston, Pope
Strath Haven (1)- Speare
Baldwin (1)- Bishop*
Valley View (1)- Wilkinson*
Central Dauphin (1)- Schrom
O'Hara (1)- Garrity
Father Judge (1)- Kehl
Crestwood (1)- Micikas
Gateway (1)- Krystek
Dubois (1)- Plaszenski
Exeter (1)- Greth
CB South (1)- Gregor
Upper Dublin (1)- Palmisano
Holy Ghost Prep (1)- Pierce
Owen J Roberts (1)- McClimmon
Hazleton Area (1)- Guest
Red Lion (1)- Kareis
Neshaminy (1)- MacDonald
Blue Mountain (1)- Reilly
Cedar Cliff (1)- Johnston
Canon Mac (1)- Gregory
Hempfield (1)- Hull
Governor Mifflin (1)- Mohn*
Indian Valley (1)- Monroe
Gettysburg (1)- Beegle
So now that we got this massive list out of the way, just to prove the point of where most medalists have come from, I'm going to lay down some other stats about these 125 guys. For starters lets look at a Districts breakdown.
D1- 19+18+8+8+8 =61
D2- 1+0+2+1+2 =6
D3- 1+3+3+4+2 =13
D6- 0+0+1+3+2 =6
D7- 2+4+4+5+7 =22
D9- 0+0+1+0+0 =1
D10- 1+0+1+1+1 =4
D11- 1+0+3+1+1 =6
D12- 0+0+2+2+2 =6
Clearly District 1 has been slighlty inflated by the first two years (2006 and 2007 where they snagged a large majority of the medalist spots). District 7 is the next most prevelant, coming on strong the past couple years, and District 3 is also ahead of the curve. It is worth noting that the PCL did not join the PIAA until the 2008 season. Assuming they keep up their pace of 2 medalists a year they would be at a total of 10, making them the 4th highest district in terms of medalists.
Now we will check in on the classes of the individuals who recieve medals.
Freshman 0+0+0+0+0 =0
Sophomores 0+2+4+3+1 =10
Juniors 7+5+6+9+6 =33
Seniors 18+18+15+13+18 =82
This one is obvious. Experience and age and developement helps you perform well on the tough states meet course. About 2 sophomores a year meadal at the big dance, and a freshman hasn't done it since McNally. Seniors from the big districts are usually safe bets to pick to medal at states.
Now here's an interesting question: how many returning medalists medal again the next year? Well there were 43 returning medalists over the past 5 years (the 33 Juniors and the 10 sophomores), but 7 of those came from this past season and we do not know how they did this year so they are thrown out leaving 36. (9 sophs and 25 jrs)
2006-1007 7/7 Juniors, 6/7 finished higher than the previous season
2007-2008 4/7 (2/2 Sophs, 2/5 Juniors), 3/7 Finished higher than the previous season
2008-2009 7/10 (3/4 Sophs, 4/6 Juniors), 3/10 Finished higher than the previous season
2009-2010 9/12 (2/3 Sophs, 7/9 Juniors), 8/12 Finished higher than the previous season
So what we can conclude from this is not much definitively. However, we can say that is highly likely that some of the 7 returners from last season will not finish as high as they did the previous season. In addition, a few of them may not even medal. Over the past 4 seasons 20/36 have improved, barely over half of the returnees. That means between Quinn, Hibbs, Steiner, Moran, Wilkinson, Kelly, and Replogle about half of them won't finish as high as they did the previous season. My money would probably be on Hibbs and Moran out of the group, last few are toss ups.
Relating some things back to track, 4 out of the last 5 state champions in the 3200m were medalists the previous fall. Burkhardt is the one exception, and he was a medalist 2 previous falls ago. Therefore, 4 out of the last 5 state champions in the 3200m were medalists their Junior cross country season, before winnining the title their senior season (the one exception here is another Unionville guy, Matt Fischer).
There have been very few true 800 guys that have ever medaled at states, its mostly just milers and 2 milers. From my own opinion the only mainly 800 guys who have medaled at states in the past 5 years are Chris Ferry and Zack Montijo. Endress was the only guy with an 800 PR under 1:52.4 at the time of getting his state medal. The only other guys with PRs even in that ball park over 800m are probably Palmisano and Crits. I may have missed another name in that mix, so I apologize about that if I did. Neither of those guys had 800 PRs that quick when they medaled. Palmisano ran 1:52 as a Junior but failed to medal as a Senior.
A runner who is a primary miler has not won states in the past 5 years. 2 out of the 5 have run very quick over 1600m, but all are mainly 2 milers. The exception is Brad Miles who ran around 4:18 and 9:15 but they don't really compare to the times of the other guys who are all under 9:05. Weller and Gil both are in the 4:12s or so in terms of PR.
Hopefully this gets you thinking about the big dance tomorrow, I'm excited and looking forward to seeing how things play out and memorizing another set of medalists.
-train
AAA Boys State Championship Preview
So here's the deal, the folks over at penntrack made their preview unavailable to non subscribers. I'm not a huge fan of them sinking that low that they have to exclude previews, but it is there business decision and let's face it, I'd be nothing without penntrack. But here's the deal, this is a business and if penntrack isn't going to make a preview everyone can see than I will, and hopefully that will increase my business. Sorry Don, you know I love you.
Anyway, down to business. Now I have already outlined my predictions and some specifics about who I like and who I don't like so it's hard to decide exactly what things to throw down in a preview. And since I'm not a professional, nor do I really think or plan what I'm going to say before I say it, this preview will probably seem a little choppy. But basically to help you follow along, I'm just going to outline my thoughts on how I see the race playing out and what to expect and things like that.
So here we go. Just to be different from penntrack I'll go individuals first then teams. The first mile is not tough in the sense of hills, its tough in the sense of getting out hard and holding your posistion. You have to get out smart however because if you go out too fast you will pay for it in the Alohas. The way I see it, things should be fairly tight out front. Magaha will definitely get out, Steiner will be up there, Runco, Kennedy and Kutcha should all get out well. The leaders at the mile will most likely be Quinn and Hibbs, barring some type of fall or unforseen district 4 kid with a lot of balls but not enough talent doing something crazy. Jaskowak may also mix it up and sieze control early, but I feel that strategy may not suit himReally the placing at the mile doesn't matter too much as long as your not in 100th and your willing to wait a bit to make your move. I think Willig and the Great Valley guys will hang back, while the Henderson guys should all be out pretty fast again. I could definitely see Russell going out too hard and falling off or hanging on and running amazing.
There will be more names in that front pack, but I just listed the ones I see making a significant difference on the effect of the race.
After Steiner makes his move at the mile or so (he always makes a huge surge mid race), its going to be a matter of who chooses to follow. Magaha has never raced Steiner before so this should create an interesting twist in the plot. You have a lot of guys who are going to want to follow suit but I think it will all come down to Magaha's decision. I think Magaha does decide to go with him, he's confident and he's in very good shape.
Meanwhile, Willig and Norris and some other guys will probably sit back, which will definitely help them in the long run. hard to predict the behavior of the D2 and D6 guys. I expect the Altoona kids to probably go with the move, Wilkinson and maybe Burke will hang back.
Jaskowak should definitely cover the move, and probably Hibbs and Quinn will also follow suit. But this move will take a lot out of guys that aren't used to running this way. It plays right in to Steiner's hands to run like this. Everyone else is running his race.
The D7 guys have seen this kind of thing play out on numerous occassions, so they shouldn't be too phased. That should be a nice advantage to them. I think Groh may make a big move here too to keep up with Steiner. A young guy with tired legs after his big win about a week ago, probably won't fair well from making this move either.
After the hills I think Steiner will have broken a lot of spirits. I see only Quinn being able to be close, Jaskowak also in the mix, but definitely hurting. I see this as a real breakthrough race for Conner. I don't see Hibbs hanging, but if he does he will be dangerous for the win. I see Magaha dropping back decently far here, but over the last 1000m I see him coming back up.
Magaha may catch Steiner before the finish line, but Steiner has been known to have a little bit more left in the tank by this point and I think he holds off Magaha's late move, giving him the victory. Tough to imagine Magaha outkicked, but hey if I'm picking against him there has to be some situation where I think he'd lose and this is the best I can do. I see guys like Willig really cleaning up the scraps here. Norris too, definitely could have a big finish, and lastly Coyle should take advantage of anyone who went out too fast. Wilkinson may also too.
For a complete list of how I think the race will play out at the finish line, check my top 50 predictions a few posts down.
Now on to the teams. I expect a big bounce back from Mt Lebo. I think they got the wake up call and I am hoping they just didn't react well to the bad course conditions, not that they are burned out or anything like that. North Allegheny though is rounding into classic states form. They used to choke at this meet, now they are running clutch. Steiner out front helps them snag second. Hopefully Seel and Appman and company can pull through a bunch of 40s type places.
I'm worried about Henderson. They are so young out front and so inexperienced on this kind of stage with this kind of pressure. They came through at districts but states is a different animal. Great coaching and a great system, so they can easily prove me wrong, but it doesn't mean I'm not scared.
O'Hara should win unless they choke. I'm not seeing a huge day from Savage or their freshman James, but I do think the other guys will run well, especially Billotta. I think that should seal their state championship hopes. PCL teams have run this course very well and I don't see that changing for either side. LaSalle may surprise with a top 5 finish and mix it up with the other schools.
North Penn and Great Valley are both high on my list of teams I'm confident in so they could surprise but I just don't think they are as good as these other teams so as much as I like them, I don't see them really finishing higher than 5-8 ish.
Other D7 teams may surprise up in the mix and maybe there will be a Tunkhannock this year that sneaks into the top 10. I wish I had a team for you that I could point to to do this (maybe Grove City? but I don't really think so), but its definitely possible.
Hope this covers everyone's fix for a preview that they may not have gotten from penntrack.
-train
Anyway, down to business. Now I have already outlined my predictions and some specifics about who I like and who I don't like so it's hard to decide exactly what things to throw down in a preview. And since I'm not a professional, nor do I really think or plan what I'm going to say before I say it, this preview will probably seem a little choppy. But basically to help you follow along, I'm just going to outline my thoughts on how I see the race playing out and what to expect and things like that.
So here we go. Just to be different from penntrack I'll go individuals first then teams. The first mile is not tough in the sense of hills, its tough in the sense of getting out hard and holding your posistion. You have to get out smart however because if you go out too fast you will pay for it in the Alohas. The way I see it, things should be fairly tight out front. Magaha will definitely get out, Steiner will be up there, Runco, Kennedy and Kutcha should all get out well. The leaders at the mile will most likely be Quinn and Hibbs, barring some type of fall or unforseen district 4 kid with a lot of balls but not enough talent doing something crazy. Jaskowak may also mix it up and sieze control early, but I feel that strategy may not suit himReally the placing at the mile doesn't matter too much as long as your not in 100th and your willing to wait a bit to make your move. I think Willig and the Great Valley guys will hang back, while the Henderson guys should all be out pretty fast again. I could definitely see Russell going out too hard and falling off or hanging on and running amazing.
There will be more names in that front pack, but I just listed the ones I see making a significant difference on the effect of the race.
After Steiner makes his move at the mile or so (he always makes a huge surge mid race), its going to be a matter of who chooses to follow. Magaha has never raced Steiner before so this should create an interesting twist in the plot. You have a lot of guys who are going to want to follow suit but I think it will all come down to Magaha's decision. I think Magaha does decide to go with him, he's confident and he's in very good shape.
Meanwhile, Willig and Norris and some other guys will probably sit back, which will definitely help them in the long run. hard to predict the behavior of the D2 and D6 guys. I expect the Altoona kids to probably go with the move, Wilkinson and maybe Burke will hang back.
Jaskowak should definitely cover the move, and probably Hibbs and Quinn will also follow suit. But this move will take a lot out of guys that aren't used to running this way. It plays right in to Steiner's hands to run like this. Everyone else is running his race.
The D7 guys have seen this kind of thing play out on numerous occassions, so they shouldn't be too phased. That should be a nice advantage to them. I think Groh may make a big move here too to keep up with Steiner. A young guy with tired legs after his big win about a week ago, probably won't fair well from making this move either.
After the hills I think Steiner will have broken a lot of spirits. I see only Quinn being able to be close, Jaskowak also in the mix, but definitely hurting. I see this as a real breakthrough race for Conner. I don't see Hibbs hanging, but if he does he will be dangerous for the win. I see Magaha dropping back decently far here, but over the last 1000m I see him coming back up.
Magaha may catch Steiner before the finish line, but Steiner has been known to have a little bit more left in the tank by this point and I think he holds off Magaha's late move, giving him the victory. Tough to imagine Magaha outkicked, but hey if I'm picking against him there has to be some situation where I think he'd lose and this is the best I can do. I see guys like Willig really cleaning up the scraps here. Norris too, definitely could have a big finish, and lastly Coyle should take advantage of anyone who went out too fast. Wilkinson may also too.
For a complete list of how I think the race will play out at the finish line, check my top 50 predictions a few posts down.
Now on to the teams. I expect a big bounce back from Mt Lebo. I think they got the wake up call and I am hoping they just didn't react well to the bad course conditions, not that they are burned out or anything like that. North Allegheny though is rounding into classic states form. They used to choke at this meet, now they are running clutch. Steiner out front helps them snag second. Hopefully Seel and Appman and company can pull through a bunch of 40s type places.
I'm worried about Henderson. They are so young out front and so inexperienced on this kind of stage with this kind of pressure. They came through at districts but states is a different animal. Great coaching and a great system, so they can easily prove me wrong, but it doesn't mean I'm not scared.
O'Hara should win unless they choke. I'm not seeing a huge day from Savage or their freshman James, but I do think the other guys will run well, especially Billotta. I think that should seal their state championship hopes. PCL teams have run this course very well and I don't see that changing for either side. LaSalle may surprise with a top 5 finish and mix it up with the other schools.
North Penn and Great Valley are both high on my list of teams I'm confident in so they could surprise but I just don't think they are as good as these other teams so as much as I like them, I don't see them really finishing higher than 5-8 ish.
Other D7 teams may surprise up in the mix and maybe there will be a Tunkhannock this year that sneaks into the top 10. I wish I had a team for you that I could point to to do this (maybe Grove City? but I don't really think so), but its definitely possible.
Hope this covers everyone's fix for a preview that they may not have gotten from penntrack.
-train
State Championship Memories
With states right around the corner, I figure it wouldn't be a bad idea to drop in one the state meets of the past and all their glory and significance in PA history. Most of this will be from memory and word of mouth speculation because I wasn't at quite as many of these as I would have liked to have been. And some of these are from before I even ran track at all so you will have to pardon my gaps in memory. Anyway here's what we got.
2002
West Chester Henderson took the AAA boys title despite Greg William's collapse on the final straightaway. He managed to crawl his way across the line and finish as the team's 4th. The individual victory by Junior Ian Gottesfield got the job done out front to help Henderson defeat D1 rival CR North. Placing 5th at this meet was a young freshman by the name of Craig Miller who started to turn some heads early in his high school career. His twin brother Brad finished 11th in the race. These are two of the highest finishes by a Freshman at states in the past decade. The defending state champion in the mile (and at the time the state meet record holder) Sam Bair, finished 24th.
On the AA side, Junior Chris Spooner took down the individual title beating Ryan Blood and David Mock. Sophomore Jed Christianson was 5th in the race. Scranton Prep squeaked out the team title by 13 points over Harbor Creek.
2003
The sophomore Craig Miller surprised defending champion Ian Gottesfield by sprinting by him in the final stretch to take the victory. Gottesfield, who had led out front with teammate Greg Williams for essentially the entire season, said he was waiting for his teammate Greg to pass him and take the victory as they had agreed they would do before the race. Future state champions Ian Fitzgerald, Jeff Weiss, and Ken King took the next 3 spots in the race. Craig's brother Brad did not match his finish from the year before, the only sophomore to medal was Curtis Bixler (another future state champ) in 24th. Craig's rival all season Brain Fuller faded and finished out of medal contention. Henderson was in 10th place team scoring wise at the mile mark, but at the finish they had sealed their second straight team title, this time winning by just 12 points over North Hills. North Hills took second over Hatboro Horsham by just 1 point.
On the AA side, defending champion Chris Spooner suffered on the final straightaway, falling down, allowing rival David Mock to sprint by and take the victory. Sophomore Jake Walker took 12th place in the race. Spooner's Lewisburg team finished second by just 2 points, as Eisenhower won the title by a score of 109 to 111.
2004
Craig Miller did not fail to retain his title as a Junior as he beat Sam Luff and Amin Garnett amongst other talented foes. His brother Brad had a solid 9th place finish. Familiar names Jason Weller, Kyle Dawson and Paul Springer all took medals finishing 11th, 25th and 23rd respectively. Freshman Vince McNally took 13th place overall. This is the most recent time a AAA freshman has medaled at the state championship. The Dawson twins, who were at Downingtown West, not Coatesville, were not able to give Coatesville the lower score it needed to take down Cedar Cliff as Cedar Cliff defeated their D1 rivals 95 to 100. Miller's Manheim Township squad was 3rd.
Scranton Prep took down yet another state title as they defeated Wyomissing 122 to 146. Jeff Weiss took the gold in the fastest time of the day, 15:45. Weiss had been AAA the season before. Meanwhile Jed Christianson took a hard fought second place finish. He had been a state title contender since his sophomore campaign. Jake Walker took 6th while future state champs Isaac Dunkleburger and Lucas Zarzeczny took 8th and 9th respectively as sophomores.
2005
Craig Miller took down his third straight title, but Kieth Capecci gave him the best run for his money he had seen in a while. Capecci would go on to become a Footlocker finalist. Capecci added his name to a long list of guys who had never medaled before at a state championship, but just missed winning the big one in the fall of their senior campaign. Meanwhile Sophomore Vince McNally surprised with a 3rd place finish (once again the last sophomore to finish in the top 5 at a state championship) and Jason Weller took 4th as a Junior. Dawson and Springer were 7th and 10th respectively. Miller was out the first mile way ahead of his competitors but by mile 2 Capecci had caught back up and challenged for the lead. Miller pulled away at the finish, but it was a solid race all around. Craig did not land the team title, however, as Manheim lost by just one point to surprise champions West Chester East. 105-106. Coatesville's young squad finished off the podium, very disappointed.
Scranton Prep took home yet another title, this time beating Ellwood City. Ellwood City's hourse Jake Walker would set the tone early in the race hammering the first and second mile, Lucas Zarzeczny followed for the first mile before falling off and leaving Walker all alone out front. However, Walker paid for his big move and surprise winner Isaac Dunkleberger, the Junior from Tamaqua caught all the way up to the front pack and took the victory. Walker faded hard over the last stretch and settled for a hard fought 4th. Freshman Joe Beveridge finished 37th.
2006
Coatesville was in the midst of a truly historic season as they crushed their opponents at the state championship running away with the team title and 5 in the top 18 in a very competitive year that featured 0 sophomore medalists. Coatesville's 26 points is the lowest point total ever at a state championship. Henderson finished a solid 2nd place with 86 points. They also had 3 runners in the top 13 at the meet. Out front Dawson and VanKooten destroyed the first mile and led everyone to a very fast race. Ultimately it was Weller who upset Springer for the title in a very fast, hard fought test of guts.
On the AA Zarzeczny redeemed his failure in 2005 and destroyed the field and defending champion Isaac Dunkleberger in the process. West Middlesex took the team title by almost 50 points over Tulpehocken in a high scoring state championship race. The top 10 finishers were all seniors, leaving a pretty wide open field in 2007.
2007
Although recieving very little talk in the offseason, North Penn surprised a lot of people with a huge championship run, capped off with a very impressive state championship race to win over surprise runner up Coatesville who took a page out of the previous year's team to finish second, 17 points out of first and 3 ahead of third place North Allegheny. Meanwhile, Mark Dennin battled with Chris Aldrich and Vince McNally out front until finally he broke away, torching his two competitors over the final mile with a brutal pace throughout that broke McNally (who also was sick at the race) and Aldrich and gave Dennin a 30 second victory over future footlocker finalist, Aldrich. Stud soph Brad Miles took 10th place and helped out a pair of seniors named Zach in the championship quest.
Junior Joe Beveridge stunned the field and took the gold defeating Terrence Lee in the process. 4 out of the top 5 runners were Juniors. John Yankello took top soph honors in 12th. North East took the team title over General McClane with a commanding victory, scoring 83 points to McClane's 150+.
2008
Pre race favorites Ben Furcht and Neal Berman didn't get out well enough over the first mile and paid the price for a huge surge in the 2nd mile. Meanwhile proper pacing and added experience propelled Jimmy Tarsnane to the top of poop out hill in 1st place. Ben Furcht faded hard over the final 100m falling all the way from 3rd to 11th. Will Kellar put on a great kick to take 2nd in the race as a Junior. 4 sophomores took home medals including Reece Ayers (8th) Wade Endress (14th) Jake Kildoo (17th) and Ryan Gil (20th). On the team title race North Allegheny, huge pre race favorites and futre NXN finalists were stunned by North Penn and LaSalle as LaSalle stole second place with a tight spread and North Penn took the victory thanks to some great finishes from Juniors Brad Miles and Sam Bernitt up front in the 7th and 10th.
On the AA side Beveridge successfully defended his title by trashing the field over the final mile and taking home a commanding victory by over 20 seconds over Alfred Santana and Jim Spisak. Quaker Valley finished second in the team scoring by just two points, being defeated by Elk Lake for the Gold. Freshman Nate Tallada took 12th in the race and finished as the #3 returner for the next state championship. Stephen Welsh finished 15th as a Junior. Elk Lake won the meet despite not having a single medalist.
2009
Brad Miles sat back and waited for the right moment to strike before sprinting past Rad Gunzenhauser of Mt. Lebanon to take the state title. Gunzenhauser tossed his name into a group with Furcht and Capecci as guys who almost accomplished the feat of winning after not medaling the year before. Ryan Gil led his North Allegheny team with a 3rd place finish and very well run race. North Allegheny redeemed last year's team with a surprise runner up finish ahead of LaSalle. Henderson took the title behind 6th place finisher Will Kellar. Sickness struck a lot of top runners including Wade Endress and Jacob Kildoo. Of the 4 sophomore medalists from the previous year, only Gil placed higher in 2009 than 2008.
On the AA side York Suburban took its turn at depriving Quaker Valley of the title, as QV took 2nd yet again, despite having the 18th, 19th and 20th place finishers in the race. Stephen Welsh took home gold just edging Brett Kubiak, his district 3 rival, while Alex Beardsley finished a solid 3rd. Aaron Wilkinson (now AAA) finished 4th as a sophomore to be the top returner at the time before making the switch. The new top returner became Alex Woodrow in 6th. Nate Tallada managed 10th as a sophomore after a 12th place finish the year before. Tommy Gruschow finished 41st.
2010
Ryan Gil was the story of the state championship as he not only won individual gold but led his team to the title as well. After hobbling around all season on a broken toe Gil stunned everyone with a fantastic race and first place finish edging out Wade Endress, Zach Hebda, and Chris Campbell who were all district champions and eventual national qualifiers. North Allegheny took down the defending champions Henderson by a score of 124 to 146. O'Hara took third in 160. Sam Hibbs was the top returner in 7th, and Drew Magaha finished well outside medal contention in the 100s. Logan Steiner and Alex Moran placed 13th and 14th.
On the AA side Quaker Valley was again denied the title, finishing 3rd. Elk Lake took back the title edging out District 2 rival Holy Redeemer 102 to 116. Tom Gruschow became the 4th straight District 3 champion to win the AA state championship edging out Redeemer's AJ Lomingelli. 6 sophomores snagged medals including Smathers, Williams, Shearn, and Jewett. Nate Tallada finished a disappointing 19th, his lowest finish ever, even compared to his freshman campaign. The top 4 finishers were all seniors, Smathers and Westwood are the two top returners.
2002
West Chester Henderson took the AAA boys title despite Greg William's collapse on the final straightaway. He managed to crawl his way across the line and finish as the team's 4th. The individual victory by Junior Ian Gottesfield got the job done out front to help Henderson defeat D1 rival CR North. Placing 5th at this meet was a young freshman by the name of Craig Miller who started to turn some heads early in his high school career. His twin brother Brad finished 11th in the race. These are two of the highest finishes by a Freshman at states in the past decade. The defending state champion in the mile (and at the time the state meet record holder) Sam Bair, finished 24th.
On the AA side, Junior Chris Spooner took down the individual title beating Ryan Blood and David Mock. Sophomore Jed Christianson was 5th in the race. Scranton Prep squeaked out the team title by 13 points over Harbor Creek.
2003
The sophomore Craig Miller surprised defending champion Ian Gottesfield by sprinting by him in the final stretch to take the victory. Gottesfield, who had led out front with teammate Greg Williams for essentially the entire season, said he was waiting for his teammate Greg to pass him and take the victory as they had agreed they would do before the race. Future state champions Ian Fitzgerald, Jeff Weiss, and Ken King took the next 3 spots in the race. Craig's brother Brad did not match his finish from the year before, the only sophomore to medal was Curtis Bixler (another future state champ) in 24th. Craig's rival all season Brain Fuller faded and finished out of medal contention. Henderson was in 10th place team scoring wise at the mile mark, but at the finish they had sealed their second straight team title, this time winning by just 12 points over North Hills. North Hills took second over Hatboro Horsham by just 1 point.
On the AA side, defending champion Chris Spooner suffered on the final straightaway, falling down, allowing rival David Mock to sprint by and take the victory. Sophomore Jake Walker took 12th place in the race. Spooner's Lewisburg team finished second by just 2 points, as Eisenhower won the title by a score of 109 to 111.
2004
Craig Miller did not fail to retain his title as a Junior as he beat Sam Luff and Amin Garnett amongst other talented foes. His brother Brad had a solid 9th place finish. Familiar names Jason Weller, Kyle Dawson and Paul Springer all took medals finishing 11th, 25th and 23rd respectively. Freshman Vince McNally took 13th place overall. This is the most recent time a AAA freshman has medaled at the state championship. The Dawson twins, who were at Downingtown West, not Coatesville, were not able to give Coatesville the lower score it needed to take down Cedar Cliff as Cedar Cliff defeated their D1 rivals 95 to 100. Miller's Manheim Township squad was 3rd.
Scranton Prep took down yet another state title as they defeated Wyomissing 122 to 146. Jeff Weiss took the gold in the fastest time of the day, 15:45. Weiss had been AAA the season before. Meanwhile Jed Christianson took a hard fought second place finish. He had been a state title contender since his sophomore campaign. Jake Walker took 6th while future state champs Isaac Dunkleburger and Lucas Zarzeczny took 8th and 9th respectively as sophomores.
2005
Craig Miller took down his third straight title, but Kieth Capecci gave him the best run for his money he had seen in a while. Capecci would go on to become a Footlocker finalist. Capecci added his name to a long list of guys who had never medaled before at a state championship, but just missed winning the big one in the fall of their senior campaign. Meanwhile Sophomore Vince McNally surprised with a 3rd place finish (once again the last sophomore to finish in the top 5 at a state championship) and Jason Weller took 4th as a Junior. Dawson and Springer were 7th and 10th respectively. Miller was out the first mile way ahead of his competitors but by mile 2 Capecci had caught back up and challenged for the lead. Miller pulled away at the finish, but it was a solid race all around. Craig did not land the team title, however, as Manheim lost by just one point to surprise champions West Chester East. 105-106. Coatesville's young squad finished off the podium, very disappointed.
Scranton Prep took home yet another title, this time beating Ellwood City. Ellwood City's hourse Jake Walker would set the tone early in the race hammering the first and second mile, Lucas Zarzeczny followed for the first mile before falling off and leaving Walker all alone out front. However, Walker paid for his big move and surprise winner Isaac Dunkleberger, the Junior from Tamaqua caught all the way up to the front pack and took the victory. Walker faded hard over the last stretch and settled for a hard fought 4th. Freshman Joe Beveridge finished 37th.
2006
Coatesville was in the midst of a truly historic season as they crushed their opponents at the state championship running away with the team title and 5 in the top 18 in a very competitive year that featured 0 sophomore medalists. Coatesville's 26 points is the lowest point total ever at a state championship. Henderson finished a solid 2nd place with 86 points. They also had 3 runners in the top 13 at the meet. Out front Dawson and VanKooten destroyed the first mile and led everyone to a very fast race. Ultimately it was Weller who upset Springer for the title in a very fast, hard fought test of guts.
On the AA Zarzeczny redeemed his failure in 2005 and destroyed the field and defending champion Isaac Dunkleberger in the process. West Middlesex took the team title by almost 50 points over Tulpehocken in a high scoring state championship race. The top 10 finishers were all seniors, leaving a pretty wide open field in 2007.
2007
Although recieving very little talk in the offseason, North Penn surprised a lot of people with a huge championship run, capped off with a very impressive state championship race to win over surprise runner up Coatesville who took a page out of the previous year's team to finish second, 17 points out of first and 3 ahead of third place North Allegheny. Meanwhile, Mark Dennin battled with Chris Aldrich and Vince McNally out front until finally he broke away, torching his two competitors over the final mile with a brutal pace throughout that broke McNally (who also was sick at the race) and Aldrich and gave Dennin a 30 second victory over future footlocker finalist, Aldrich. Stud soph Brad Miles took 10th place and helped out a pair of seniors named Zach in the championship quest.
Junior Joe Beveridge stunned the field and took the gold defeating Terrence Lee in the process. 4 out of the top 5 runners were Juniors. John Yankello took top soph honors in 12th. North East took the team title over General McClane with a commanding victory, scoring 83 points to McClane's 150+.
2008
Pre race favorites Ben Furcht and Neal Berman didn't get out well enough over the first mile and paid the price for a huge surge in the 2nd mile. Meanwhile proper pacing and added experience propelled Jimmy Tarsnane to the top of poop out hill in 1st place. Ben Furcht faded hard over the final 100m falling all the way from 3rd to 11th. Will Kellar put on a great kick to take 2nd in the race as a Junior. 4 sophomores took home medals including Reece Ayers (8th) Wade Endress (14th) Jake Kildoo (17th) and Ryan Gil (20th). On the team title race North Allegheny, huge pre race favorites and futre NXN finalists were stunned by North Penn and LaSalle as LaSalle stole second place with a tight spread and North Penn took the victory thanks to some great finishes from Juniors Brad Miles and Sam Bernitt up front in the 7th and 10th.
On the AA side Beveridge successfully defended his title by trashing the field over the final mile and taking home a commanding victory by over 20 seconds over Alfred Santana and Jim Spisak. Quaker Valley finished second in the team scoring by just two points, being defeated by Elk Lake for the Gold. Freshman Nate Tallada took 12th in the race and finished as the #3 returner for the next state championship. Stephen Welsh finished 15th as a Junior. Elk Lake won the meet despite not having a single medalist.
2009
Brad Miles sat back and waited for the right moment to strike before sprinting past Rad Gunzenhauser of Mt. Lebanon to take the state title. Gunzenhauser tossed his name into a group with Furcht and Capecci as guys who almost accomplished the feat of winning after not medaling the year before. Ryan Gil led his North Allegheny team with a 3rd place finish and very well run race. North Allegheny redeemed last year's team with a surprise runner up finish ahead of LaSalle. Henderson took the title behind 6th place finisher Will Kellar. Sickness struck a lot of top runners including Wade Endress and Jacob Kildoo. Of the 4 sophomore medalists from the previous year, only Gil placed higher in 2009 than 2008.
On the AA side York Suburban took its turn at depriving Quaker Valley of the title, as QV took 2nd yet again, despite having the 18th, 19th and 20th place finishers in the race. Stephen Welsh took home gold just edging Brett Kubiak, his district 3 rival, while Alex Beardsley finished a solid 3rd. Aaron Wilkinson (now AAA) finished 4th as a sophomore to be the top returner at the time before making the switch. The new top returner became Alex Woodrow in 6th. Nate Tallada managed 10th as a sophomore after a 12th place finish the year before. Tommy Gruschow finished 41st.
2010
Ryan Gil was the story of the state championship as he not only won individual gold but led his team to the title as well. After hobbling around all season on a broken toe Gil stunned everyone with a fantastic race and first place finish edging out Wade Endress, Zach Hebda, and Chris Campbell who were all district champions and eventual national qualifiers. North Allegheny took down the defending champions Henderson by a score of 124 to 146. O'Hara took third in 160. Sam Hibbs was the top returner in 7th, and Drew Magaha finished well outside medal contention in the 100s. Logan Steiner and Alex Moran placed 13th and 14th.
On the AA side Quaker Valley was again denied the title, finishing 3rd. Elk Lake took back the title edging out District 2 rival Holy Redeemer 102 to 116. Tom Gruschow became the 4th straight District 3 champion to win the AA state championship edging out Redeemer's AJ Lomingelli. 6 sophomores snagged medals including Smathers, Williams, Shearn, and Jewett. Nate Tallada finished a disappointing 19th, his lowest finish ever, even compared to his freshman campaign. The top 4 finishers were all seniors, Smathers and Westwood are the two top returners.
AA States Preview: Brendan Shearn
It seems like an all too common story. Runners never seem immeaditley drawn to track and field or cross country when they are in their elementary school days. We dabble in local sports, intermural soccer or baseball or basketball. But those sports all have their drawbacks. There is the battle for playing time, the politics with coach's children and all sorts of subjective behavior. But not running. Everyone lines up together and the fastest kid wins. Each person can not only race the field, but race themself, make themselves the best they can be.
That's what attracted Brendan Shearn to the sport. For him, it's about getting in a race with confidence and not letting anyone beat you, wanting it more than the guy next to you.
It is this attitude that has propelled Shearn to the front of a lot of people's prediction boards this November and has earned him a slew of PRs, gold medals, and impressive finishes. But it didn't start out with instant success and glory.
In his middle school days Shearn can specifically remember using a front running strategy, but getting outkicked at the end by guys who maybe had more natural talent and speed. And even natural, innate ability was not the only obstacle Shearn faced while running.
His freshman year at states, Shearn fell about 200m into the race and was brutally spiked. However, with blood trickling down his leg, he still perserved and not only finished the race, but outkicked a few guys on the way finishing in the top 50. Later Shearn would spend about 400m of one of his distance runs trying to avoid a bear attack. And to top it all off Brendan recently was hit by a car pulling out of a parking lot in the middle of a race. He still managed to finish first.
All these things make Jon Trueman's kid look slightly less horrifying.
So after facing all this, what kind of problems could a simple cross country race present? With the motivation of pass disappointments and big goals for this fall, Shearn ran to a huge victory at the very competitive Carlisle Invitational. It was a race that now holds a special place in his running memories.
But the story does not stop at Carlisle, and Brendan has no intention of making Carlisle the highlight of his career. He has big goals for this upcoming state meet and the footlocker regional meet. He wants to win his first state championship that he just missed outdoors in the 3200 last spring, therefore establishing himself at the front of a great AA field of Juniors. Then in New York Brendan has his sights set on booking a flight to California for the Footlocker Championships in San Diego.
Having goals is a big part of success in this sport, and Brendan is not afraid to shoot for the stars. He's put in the work over the summer with 70+ mile weeks and heavy doses of mileage and he has seen the results after his recent 3200m time drop into the 9:20s adn of course his breakout wins at PTXC and Carlisle.
Brendan looks to be at the top of his game right now and it is going to take more than a bear or a car to knock him down.
That's what attracted Brendan Shearn to the sport. For him, it's about getting in a race with confidence and not letting anyone beat you, wanting it more than the guy next to you.
It is this attitude that has propelled Shearn to the front of a lot of people's prediction boards this November and has earned him a slew of PRs, gold medals, and impressive finishes. But it didn't start out with instant success and glory.
In his middle school days Shearn can specifically remember using a front running strategy, but getting outkicked at the end by guys who maybe had more natural talent and speed. And even natural, innate ability was not the only obstacle Shearn faced while running.
His freshman year at states, Shearn fell about 200m into the race and was brutally spiked. However, with blood trickling down his leg, he still perserved and not only finished the race, but outkicked a few guys on the way finishing in the top 50. Later Shearn would spend about 400m of one of his distance runs trying to avoid a bear attack. And to top it all off Brendan recently was hit by a car pulling out of a parking lot in the middle of a race. He still managed to finish first.
All these things make Jon Trueman's kid look slightly less horrifying.
So after facing all this, what kind of problems could a simple cross country race present? With the motivation of pass disappointments and big goals for this fall, Shearn ran to a huge victory at the very competitive Carlisle Invitational. It was a race that now holds a special place in his running memories.
But the story does not stop at Carlisle, and Brendan has no intention of making Carlisle the highlight of his career. He has big goals for this upcoming state meet and the footlocker regional meet. He wants to win his first state championship that he just missed outdoors in the 3200 last spring, therefore establishing himself at the front of a great AA field of Juniors. Then in New York Brendan has his sights set on booking a flight to California for the Footlocker Championships in San Diego.
Having goals is a big part of success in this sport, and Brendan is not afraid to shoot for the stars. He's put in the work over the summer with 70+ mile weeks and heavy doses of mileage and he has seen the results after his recent 3200m time drop into the 9:20s adn of course his breakout wins at PTXC and Carlisle.
Brendan looks to be at the top of his game right now and it is going to take more than a bear or a car to knock him down.
More Matthew Berry
So last night I kinda had some other stuff going on so I had to cut things a little short with my fantasy draft analysis, but now that the draft is so close at hand (we are looking at Thursday night, still time to join the league just shoot me or Chris a facebook message), I figured I have to drop a few more names down here with my analysis. Here's some guys I'm nervous about going into the state championships:
Jeff Groh- Ran awesome at the District 3 Championships but historically District 3 Champions on the AAA side have struggled to stay on top the next week at States. It is very tough running the Hershey course two weeks in a row. Look at names like Alex Galli, Kyle Hurston, Vince McNally, they all had some struggles the next weekend. Groh's also a young guy who is in the championship mix for the first time in his career.
The Henderson guys. So yes Coach Kelly and the Henderson system always do very well at states, and always peak at the right time. However, I'm not sure I see a Will Kellar out of this mix of Henderson guys this year. Kellar finished 17th at States as a Sophomore, but he had a solid run at Hershey under his belt already and was traiining with Senior leader Chris Aldrich. Now these sophomores have the pressure of leading their team as they try to get on the podium and, although they almost all have run the states course before, they did not have a huge amount of success. I'm nervous the pressure on this big stage along with perhaps too fast of a first mile could end up really biting these Henderson guys like Russell, Haugh and Collins if you buy too high.
Sam Hibbs. I think the kid is going to go very high in drafts because he has the huge upside of being clutch and showing up and competing for the win, just like Ryan Gil a year ago. However, Hibbs has not shown any flashes of brilliance the past two weeks and its not because he is injured/recovering from injury (I think anyway) which already makes this a different situation than Gil. Also there is reason to believe Gil was saving his best for states (its the only race he ran legitimately well at all year, so I think he was holding back at Districts). For Hibbs the upside is he gets you 1st overall in an amazing day. The downside, however, is huge and arguably much more likely. That is he finishes outside the top 10 and maybe even outside the top 20 if he continues this downhill climb. I don't think its worth taking that big of a chance on a top 3-5 pick in the draft. I'm much higher on his teammate Conner Quinn, who I would definitely draft before Hibbs.
So just to round out my thoughts here I'll make a bit of lists here for a few love/hate guys just like my old Fantasy Football pal Matthew Berry.
Love
Brett Kelly- Always great on the state course
Connor Harriman- Haven't forgotten that 2nd place finish at pre states over quinn, magaha etc.
Connor Strynkowski- I can't help but feel the guy is going to bounce back in a big way
Hate (kind of a strong word, its just a form of expression people don't mean it like that)
Andrew Kutcha- Baldwin always runs well at WPIALs but they have struggled to find success on the states course (see Bishop, Cecala, Logan, Adley, Hobart ...)
The district 6 guys- Its gonna be a problem having raced on Monday rather than Saturday, it effects your training enough to slip you a couple spots
Alex Moran- hasn't had a legit big race all season, it's tough to imagine the tables turing all of a sudden
Dan Jaskowak- I think he hasn't raced anyone in too long and honestly, no offfense, I don't see how he can win this race regardless of how it plays out. Maybe I just don't know the courses well enough, but I can't see how so many people are as high as they are on him.
Some deeper sleepers
The NA pack
Kevin Tramlgini
Ryan Boccabella
Ross Wilson
Chris Muldoon
Matt Craft
Nate Kreider
Remember all my analysis is based of where other people are drafting them. Just because I love Adam Katora and I'm low on Dan Jaskowak does not mean you should be drafting them at the same time. I just think Jaskowak should be drafted lower than he is projected and Tim higher, it's pretty much that simple.
Good luck to everyone at states and in the predictions!
as always,
train
Jeff Groh- Ran awesome at the District 3 Championships but historically District 3 Champions on the AAA side have struggled to stay on top the next week at States. It is very tough running the Hershey course two weeks in a row. Look at names like Alex Galli, Kyle Hurston, Vince McNally, they all had some struggles the next weekend. Groh's also a young guy who is in the championship mix for the first time in his career.
The Henderson guys. So yes Coach Kelly and the Henderson system always do very well at states, and always peak at the right time. However, I'm not sure I see a Will Kellar out of this mix of Henderson guys this year. Kellar finished 17th at States as a Sophomore, but he had a solid run at Hershey under his belt already and was traiining with Senior leader Chris Aldrich. Now these sophomores have the pressure of leading their team as they try to get on the podium and, although they almost all have run the states course before, they did not have a huge amount of success. I'm nervous the pressure on this big stage along with perhaps too fast of a first mile could end up really biting these Henderson guys like Russell, Haugh and Collins if you buy too high.
Sam Hibbs. I think the kid is going to go very high in drafts because he has the huge upside of being clutch and showing up and competing for the win, just like Ryan Gil a year ago. However, Hibbs has not shown any flashes of brilliance the past two weeks and its not because he is injured/recovering from injury (I think anyway) which already makes this a different situation than Gil. Also there is reason to believe Gil was saving his best for states (its the only race he ran legitimately well at all year, so I think he was holding back at Districts). For Hibbs the upside is he gets you 1st overall in an amazing day. The downside, however, is huge and arguably much more likely. That is he finishes outside the top 10 and maybe even outside the top 20 if he continues this downhill climb. I don't think its worth taking that big of a chance on a top 3-5 pick in the draft. I'm much higher on his teammate Conner Quinn, who I would definitely draft before Hibbs.
So just to round out my thoughts here I'll make a bit of lists here for a few love/hate guys just like my old Fantasy Football pal Matthew Berry.
Love
Brett Kelly- Always great on the state course
Connor Harriman- Haven't forgotten that 2nd place finish at pre states over quinn, magaha etc.
Connor Strynkowski- I can't help but feel the guy is going to bounce back in a big way
Hate (kind of a strong word, its just a form of expression people don't mean it like that)
Andrew Kutcha- Baldwin always runs well at WPIALs but they have struggled to find success on the states course (see Bishop, Cecala, Logan, Adley, Hobart ...)
The district 6 guys- Its gonna be a problem having raced on Monday rather than Saturday, it effects your training enough to slip you a couple spots
Alex Moran- hasn't had a legit big race all season, it's tough to imagine the tables turing all of a sudden
Dan Jaskowak- I think he hasn't raced anyone in too long and honestly, no offfense, I don't see how he can win this race regardless of how it plays out. Maybe I just don't know the courses well enough, but I can't see how so many people are as high as they are on him.
Some deeper sleepers
The NA pack
Kevin Tramlgini
Ryan Boccabella
Ross Wilson
Chris Muldoon
Matt Craft
Nate Kreider
Remember all my analysis is based of where other people are drafting them. Just because I love Adam Katora and I'm low on Dan Jaskowak does not mean you should be drafting them at the same time. I just think Jaskowak should be drafted lower than he is projected and Tim higher, it's pretty much that simple.
Good luck to everyone at states and in the predictions!
as always,
train
Fantasy Draft and Pulling a Matthew Berry
So Chris Short had the idea of having a fantasy draft for the XC state championships with the same rules as last year (for those of you who weren't in it last year, if you join this year we will fill you in). Anyone who is interested in joining this league please facebook message me ASAP so we can schedule a draft in time. I'm going to talk to Chris soon (unless he sees this and beats me to the punch, which is possible) about making up a facebook group like last time, that worked out very well. It was a great success last year (even though I personally got my tail handed to me) and hopefully everybody will have fun again this time around if we get enough people.
Since we are having this little fantasy draft, I figured I'd go all Matthew Berry on everybody and lay down some of the best value picks I think you can get in the draft (which will instantly become overrated people probably because most people don't have a whole lot of sources for fantasy cross country but yea whatever). So here's what I got.
Top Sleepers:
Sean Burke from Abington Heights. The kid has silently been running very solid races, he has been mixing it up with a lot of top runners at both pre states and Paul Short, beat Aaron Wilkinson at the D2 championships (Wilkinson was 18th last year and it's hard to imagine he won't be around that high again), and Burke looks like he has been getting better with each passing week. Most people see him as a 20-30 place finisher, I see him as 15-10, maybe will surprise like Micikas or Ayers and finish in the top 10 like they did in 2008. He's got a lot of similarities to those two names.
The other guy who reminds me of that pair of Micikas and Ayers is Dominic Deluca the sophomore from Dallas, definitely worth a flyer.
How about this kid Adam Katora? Never heard of him? Well he had a down race at District 3s, but I think he is going to have a solid bounce back race at states, may surprise with a state medal if things go well. The last two kids who were good from Dallastown (where Katora goes) Chuck Lockwood (4th) and Tim Moyer (25th). I think Katora has similar talent to the second guy and it doesn't hurt to know he was training with the first guy at some point. Just ask Dan Jaskowak how much that helps.
I'm still on the North Penn bandwagon folks! Yeah not quite as a team but the individuals out front I like a lot. How about Jack MacCauley for a big bounce back race? Definitely could happen, not extremely confident about it, but it may happen. I'm more pumped to see what Dan Davis can do. People forget he was 29th or so a year ago. He had a much better stretch run this year than last year so states could be very interesting. Its hard to imagine North Penn without a medalist at states for the second straight year. Oh and in deeper leagues Chris Trimble isn't a bad pick, kids talented.
I've got more stuff to drop later like my guys who I feel are overrated and some more deeper sleepers for those deeper leagues, so keep watching.
Since we are having this little fantasy draft, I figured I'd go all Matthew Berry on everybody and lay down some of the best value picks I think you can get in the draft (which will instantly become overrated people probably because most people don't have a whole lot of sources for fantasy cross country but yea whatever). So here's what I got.
Top Sleepers:
Sean Burke from Abington Heights. The kid has silently been running very solid races, he has been mixing it up with a lot of top runners at both pre states and Paul Short, beat Aaron Wilkinson at the D2 championships (Wilkinson was 18th last year and it's hard to imagine he won't be around that high again), and Burke looks like he has been getting better with each passing week. Most people see him as a 20-30 place finisher, I see him as 15-10, maybe will surprise like Micikas or Ayers and finish in the top 10 like they did in 2008. He's got a lot of similarities to those two names.
The other guy who reminds me of that pair of Micikas and Ayers is Dominic Deluca the sophomore from Dallas, definitely worth a flyer.
How about this kid Adam Katora? Never heard of him? Well he had a down race at District 3s, but I think he is going to have a solid bounce back race at states, may surprise with a state medal if things go well. The last two kids who were good from Dallastown (where Katora goes) Chuck Lockwood (4th) and Tim Moyer (25th). I think Katora has similar talent to the second guy and it doesn't hurt to know he was training with the first guy at some point. Just ask Dan Jaskowak how much that helps.
I'm still on the North Penn bandwagon folks! Yeah not quite as a team but the individuals out front I like a lot. How about Jack MacCauley for a big bounce back race? Definitely could happen, not extremely confident about it, but it may happen. I'm more pumped to see what Dan Davis can do. People forget he was 29th or so a year ago. He had a much better stretch run this year than last year so states could be very interesting. Its hard to imagine North Penn without a medalist at states for the second straight year. Oh and in deeper leagues Chris Trimble isn't a bad pick, kids talented.
I've got more stuff to drop later like my guys who I feel are overrated and some more deeper sleepers for those deeper leagues, so keep watching.
Top Teams AA and AAA
AAA
1. O'Hara
2. North Allegheny
3. Mount Lebanon
4. West Chester Henderson
5. Great Valley
6. LaSalle
7. North Penn
8. Pittsburgh Central Catholic
9. Chambersburg
10. Governor Mifflin
AA
1. Quaker Valley
2. North East
3. West Middlesex
4. Holy Redeemer
5. Annville Celona
1. O'Hara
2. North Allegheny
3. Mount Lebanon
4. West Chester Henderson
5. Great Valley
6. LaSalle
7. North Penn
8. Pittsburgh Central Catholic
9. Chambersburg
10. Governor Mifflin
AA
1. Quaker Valley
2. North East
3. West Middlesex
4. Holy Redeemer
5. Annville Celona
Top 25 AA Boys Predictions
1. Brendan Shearn
2. Nate Tallada
3. Barrett Kemp
4. Sam Williams
5. Ryan Smathers
6. Curt Jewett
7. Luke Jones
8. Jared Schatz
9. Shawn Wolfe
10. Rico Golassi
11. Aaron Valerosa
12. Mark Bachman
13. Mitchell Ford
14. Nat Fox
15. Kelby Mullen
16. Dan Alexander
17. Tyler Stemack
18. Caleb Leckler
19. Roy Heidfield
20. Grant Barber
21. Jeremy Parsons
22. Hunter Johnston
23. Jack Bagamery
24. LJ Westwood
25. Andrew Steely
2. Nate Tallada
3. Barrett Kemp
4. Sam Williams
5. Ryan Smathers
6. Curt Jewett
7. Luke Jones
8. Jared Schatz
9. Shawn Wolfe
10. Rico Golassi
11. Aaron Valerosa
12. Mark Bachman
13. Mitchell Ford
14. Nat Fox
15. Kelby Mullen
16. Dan Alexander
17. Tyler Stemack
18. Caleb Leckler
19. Roy Heidfield
20. Grant Barber
21. Jeremy Parsons
22. Hunter Johnston
23. Jack Bagamery
24. LJ Westwood
25. Andrew Steely
Boys AAA Top 50 Predictions
1. Logan Steiner
2. Drew Magaha
3. Conner Quinn
4. Max Norris
5. Dan Jaskowak
6. Brent Kennedy
7. Mike Runco
8. Brett Kelly
9. Alex Moran
10. Sean Burke
11. Ned Willig
12. Tom Coyle
13. Sam Hibbs
14. Aaron Wilkinson
15. Connor Strynkowski
16. Connor Harriman
17. Korey Replogle
18. Dan Savage
19. Dylan Mountain
20. Dan Davis
21. Ean DiSilvio
22. Francis Ferruzzi
23. Jeff Groh
24. Mike Billotta
25. Jack MaCauley
26. John Felts
27. Dominic Deluca
28. Tony Russell
29. Andrew Kutcha
30. Adam Katora
31. Ryan Hertzog
32. Chris Muldoon
33. Caleb Wakeley
34. Richard Lednak
35. Evan Williams
36. Lawtin Tellin
37. Mac Emery
38. Chris Pastore
39. Austin Pondel
40. Tim Appman
41. Ethan Martin
42. Alex Kunzweiler
43. Harrison Schettler
44. Vinny Todaro
45. Scott Seel
46. Cordon Luoco
47. Alex Kane
48. John Ausel
49. Sam Haugh
50. Matt Wilig
2. Drew Magaha
3. Conner Quinn
4. Max Norris
5. Dan Jaskowak
6. Brent Kennedy
7. Mike Runco
8. Brett Kelly
9. Alex Moran
10. Sean Burke
11. Ned Willig
12. Tom Coyle
13. Sam Hibbs
14. Aaron Wilkinson
15. Connor Strynkowski
16. Connor Harriman
17. Korey Replogle
18. Dan Savage
19. Dylan Mountain
20. Dan Davis
21. Ean DiSilvio
22. Francis Ferruzzi
23. Jeff Groh
24. Mike Billotta
25. Jack MaCauley
26. John Felts
27. Dominic Deluca
28. Tony Russell
29. Andrew Kutcha
30. Adam Katora
31. Ryan Hertzog
32. Chris Muldoon
33. Caleb Wakeley
34. Richard Lednak
35. Evan Williams
36. Lawtin Tellin
37. Mac Emery
38. Chris Pastore
39. Austin Pondel
40. Tim Appman
41. Ethan Martin
42. Alex Kunzweiler
43. Harrison Schettler
44. Vinny Todaro
45. Scott Seel
46. Cordon Luoco
47. Alex Kane
48. John Ausel
49. Sam Haugh
50. Matt Wilig
etrain not picking Magaha
Yes, I am aware that I just refered to myself in the third person which is kinda toolish, but hopefully it doesn't discourage anyone from reading the post.
As the title suggests, I will not be picking Drew Magaha to win the state championship in my official predictions (which will go up one I've seen the D6 Championship results just to make sure that Mountain hasn't gotten injured or that Patrick Reade hasn't secretly taken steroids and become a boss or something like that). So since I have not picked Magaha, the clear favorite in my opinion, and the choice of many to win thus far in my talks and reading, warrants some explanation. So let's begin.
First off let me say a few things about Drew that can not be denied:
1. In the past month no one has touched him. He has dominated every field he has faced in very fast times. Districts wasn't even close.
2. If I was in a fantasy draft, he'd have to be my #1 pick. I have a lot of reasons to think he won't win, but the upside that he has is huge.
3. He ran a 4:07 1600 as a Junior with a huge negative split for the last 400m. He is extremely talented.
4. He can run hills, he had a solid finish at the Pre States meet and he rocked the Salesianum Invite which is no cake walk.
BUT, I am not picking Drew to win states this Saturday. Which begs the question, why?
Well for starters: history. What Drew did last spring season was re-write the history books, so I'm not saying he can't do it again, but an individual who has never before medaled at a cross country state championship has not won states in about a decade (Dan Mazzacco, Baldwin in either 01 or 02 I can't remember). Mazzacco easily could have been a medalist his Junior year considering he was a top finisher at the District 7 championships the week before states and established cross country name.
Since Dan there have been a boat load of guys who have been close to accomplishing the feat (Keith Cappecci, Ben Furcht, Rad Gunzenhauser, Charles Lockwood, Bud Plaszenski, Neal Berman, Zach Hebda, Greg Karies, etc.) but none of them have actually pulled it out. In fact the past couple years the state champions have been big names that are amongst the top returners from the previous season. Miller, Miller, Miller, Weller, Dennin, Tarsnane, Miles and Gil all finished in the top 10 the year before they won the state championship. Magaha finished 127th last season at states and 81st as a sophomore. There is a certain level of experience that I feel is required to run on the big stage, in a big race and have the confidence to know how to win. I'm not sure if Drew has that experience based on his previous finishes at states.
It's undeniable Drew is the favorite, most District One Champions are, but in Cross Country, unlike track, upsets aren't just more frequent, they have become increasingly likely. In the past 5 years the "favorite" going into the state championships has won just once (Brad Miles). In addition the District One Champion has one just once since Ian Gottesfield did in the early turn of the century (same guy, Brad Miles). Guys like Furcht and Hebda have gone on to prove they were the best runner in their year in PA by making Footlockers, however, they don't have any state gold to show off.
One of my other big questions about Drew is his attitude. Drew is obviously a fierce track competitor, he runs hard and he runs gutsy, how else could he unleash the kicks that he has on the field. However, Drew does have a tendency to sometimes mentally fall out of races (indoor states in the mile and the 8, the outdoor 800) which isn't too big of a deal, but there is evidence to suggest the mindset is there.
But it's more than just the occasional lack of being able to double that concerns me about Magaha's attitude. First of all, Magaha does not put in the mileage that the other top guys do. There is reason to suspect based on his recent interviews that he has been down in the 30s for the past few weeks, looking to ride his peak to states. He hasn't even been pushed in a race since Salesianum and has raced in the best conditions out of any of the top guys in the past few weeks. At states, I don't expect the weather to be nice.
Lastly, Magaha himself has said this season his not all his main focus. He has confessed he is a track guy and is just using this season to "show college coaches he can do it".
So after almost a month of not being pushed and racing quite all out at flatter courses, being at low mileage, and having the mental attitude about cross country he has had, I don't think Magaha will have the same edge that the other top runners will have coming into the race. If Magaha comes in expecting things to be easy on the Hershey course and doesn't have his day, he will be vulnerable and he may lose.
These historically tendencies and Drew's recent interviews, races, and training cycle are enough for me to hop onto another bandwagon for the championship meet. Could Drew win? Oh, definitely, it wouldn't be much of a surprise, but, in my opinion, the same can be said for him losing.
That's what makes the state championships so interesting I suppose.
As the expression goes, It's kind of like a box of chocolates. You never know who is going to have the race of their life and pull out the victory.
Or something like that.
-train
As the title suggests, I will not be picking Drew Magaha to win the state championship in my official predictions (which will go up one I've seen the D6 Championship results just to make sure that Mountain hasn't gotten injured or that Patrick Reade hasn't secretly taken steroids and become a boss or something like that). So since I have not picked Magaha, the clear favorite in my opinion, and the choice of many to win thus far in my talks and reading, warrants some explanation. So let's begin.
First off let me say a few things about Drew that can not be denied:
1. In the past month no one has touched him. He has dominated every field he has faced in very fast times. Districts wasn't even close.
2. If I was in a fantasy draft, he'd have to be my #1 pick. I have a lot of reasons to think he won't win, but the upside that he has is huge.
3. He ran a 4:07 1600 as a Junior with a huge negative split for the last 400m. He is extremely talented.
4. He can run hills, he had a solid finish at the Pre States meet and he rocked the Salesianum Invite which is no cake walk.
BUT, I am not picking Drew to win states this Saturday. Which begs the question, why?
Well for starters: history. What Drew did last spring season was re-write the history books, so I'm not saying he can't do it again, but an individual who has never before medaled at a cross country state championship has not won states in about a decade (Dan Mazzacco, Baldwin in either 01 or 02 I can't remember). Mazzacco easily could have been a medalist his Junior year considering he was a top finisher at the District 7 championships the week before states and established cross country name.
Since Dan there have been a boat load of guys who have been close to accomplishing the feat (Keith Cappecci, Ben Furcht, Rad Gunzenhauser, Charles Lockwood, Bud Plaszenski, Neal Berman, Zach Hebda, Greg Karies, etc.) but none of them have actually pulled it out. In fact the past couple years the state champions have been big names that are amongst the top returners from the previous season. Miller, Miller, Miller, Weller, Dennin, Tarsnane, Miles and Gil all finished in the top 10 the year before they won the state championship. Magaha finished 127th last season at states and 81st as a sophomore. There is a certain level of experience that I feel is required to run on the big stage, in a big race and have the confidence to know how to win. I'm not sure if Drew has that experience based on his previous finishes at states.
It's undeniable Drew is the favorite, most District One Champions are, but in Cross Country, unlike track, upsets aren't just more frequent, they have become increasingly likely. In the past 5 years the "favorite" going into the state championships has won just once (Brad Miles). In addition the District One Champion has one just once since Ian Gottesfield did in the early turn of the century (same guy, Brad Miles). Guys like Furcht and Hebda have gone on to prove they were the best runner in their year in PA by making Footlockers, however, they don't have any state gold to show off.
One of my other big questions about Drew is his attitude. Drew is obviously a fierce track competitor, he runs hard and he runs gutsy, how else could he unleash the kicks that he has on the field. However, Drew does have a tendency to sometimes mentally fall out of races (indoor states in the mile and the 8, the outdoor 800) which isn't too big of a deal, but there is evidence to suggest the mindset is there.
But it's more than just the occasional lack of being able to double that concerns me about Magaha's attitude. First of all, Magaha does not put in the mileage that the other top guys do. There is reason to suspect based on his recent interviews that he has been down in the 30s for the past few weeks, looking to ride his peak to states. He hasn't even been pushed in a race since Salesianum and has raced in the best conditions out of any of the top guys in the past few weeks. At states, I don't expect the weather to be nice.
Lastly, Magaha himself has said this season his not all his main focus. He has confessed he is a track guy and is just using this season to "show college coaches he can do it".
So after almost a month of not being pushed and racing quite all out at flatter courses, being at low mileage, and having the mental attitude about cross country he has had, I don't think Magaha will have the same edge that the other top runners will have coming into the race. If Magaha comes in expecting things to be easy on the Hershey course and doesn't have his day, he will be vulnerable and he may lose.
These historically tendencies and Drew's recent interviews, races, and training cycle are enough for me to hop onto another bandwagon for the championship meet. Could Drew win? Oh, definitely, it wouldn't be much of a surprise, but, in my opinion, the same can be said for him losing.
That's what makes the state championships so interesting I suppose.
As the expression goes, It's kind of like a box of chocolates. You never know who is going to have the race of their life and pull out the victory.
Or something like that.
-train
Prediction Contest
As you may or may not have heard, this past weekend, I competed in a snow covered Conference Championship meet about 2 hours from my dorm. This, naturally means two things. 1st, I ran a very slow time even though I think I finished 17 places higher than the previous year (about a 20% increase), went painfully numb in various place I care not to discuss publicly, and finished wet and cold and miserable. And no that's not what she said.
But the 2nd fact was much more painful/depressing/upsetting to me. I was away from a computer for two days and I failed to update my loyal blog followers (appearently I'm to 3 now which is very exciting) on the district championships results that had been coming in from the weekend.
Well folks, I'm back and hopefully will not be facing the piles of school work I faced this past week, which means I can dedicate myself to covering the upcoming state championships like nobody's business.
First though, while I have everyone's attention, I want to say a few things about the district one championships from this past weekend. First off major props to Magaha, he looks unbeatable after that performance ... but I suppose we will get to that later in the week. Also huge congrats to Ned Willig and Great Valley. They really redeemed themselves from a rough patch earlier in the season and look like a legit top 5 contender at the state championships. Also quick shout out to my summer training partner Francis Ferrruzzi, great race kid.
Finally, just wanted to give a hearty congrats to a couple guys who I have watched grow up in the past few years, training hard, but just missing states this past Friday, Jon Hartsough and Sam Brooks. You guys both had fantastic seasons and should be proud of the strides you've made over the past years, even if it didn't quite work out as you might have hoped, keep your heads up.
But this post is not about shout outs or pretending like I'm friends with a bunch of good runners or kissing up to people and name dropping or anything like that, as much as I would like to keep bringing up people like my possible future training partner from CR North who ran a nice 16:44 this Friday, but serious I'm done. Moving on.
At some point later this week I will be posting my state predictions including: The top 5-10 teams (not exactly sure how deep I can go here, definitely can go through 6 or so, after that I'm fuzzy), my top 50 AAA boys (going to be a bit of a tough one here with a lot of names, but I'll give it a shot) and my top 25 AA boys (again this will probably look very rough, especially at the end, but just work with me). Hopefully each of these will come with some in depth analysis and be up by around Wednesday this week so people can check them out. Keep your fingers crossed.
Now, some of you are probably looking up at the title of this post and wondering when the heck is this kid going to stop bragging that he is a boss because he ran through snow and knows Francis Ferruzzi and tell us what the heck this Prediction Contest is. Well, this is the part of the post where your questions are answered.
For this upcoming state meet I challenge you all out there to correctly name more of the 25 state medalists in either AA or AAA boys. Order does not matter, I'm only looking for names. You can list up to 25 names, and as little as one name if you really want to (although I am fairly confident you will not beat with just one name, not to sound like the dude, but I mean my roommate from Vermont can probably get 10-12 just from living with me and listening to me blabber all day).
All you have to do is post a list of your 25 state medalists (chose just AA or just AAA for each entry. You can enter once for each, but keep the lists seperate because they will be scored seperately). Like I said all I need are the 25 names and your name. If you get the guy who finished 25th it is the same value as getting the guy who finished 1st.
Lists can be posted either as a comment on the blog, as a facebook message to me, as a post on penntrack as long as you address the post to me and post up a link to the blog (yay advertising), as a penntrack message to me, or as a text message to me.
Hopefully we can have some fun with this and in a week hopefully I won't be crying that all of my readers know the state better than I do. Game on gentlemen.
-train
But the 2nd fact was much more painful/depressing/upsetting to me. I was away from a computer for two days and I failed to update my loyal blog followers (appearently I'm to 3 now which is very exciting) on the district championships results that had been coming in from the weekend.
Well folks, I'm back and hopefully will not be facing the piles of school work I faced this past week, which means I can dedicate myself to covering the upcoming state championships like nobody's business.
First though, while I have everyone's attention, I want to say a few things about the district one championships from this past weekend. First off major props to Magaha, he looks unbeatable after that performance ... but I suppose we will get to that later in the week. Also huge congrats to Ned Willig and Great Valley. They really redeemed themselves from a rough patch earlier in the season and look like a legit top 5 contender at the state championships. Also quick shout out to my summer training partner Francis Ferrruzzi, great race kid.
Finally, just wanted to give a hearty congrats to a couple guys who I have watched grow up in the past few years, training hard, but just missing states this past Friday, Jon Hartsough and Sam Brooks. You guys both had fantastic seasons and should be proud of the strides you've made over the past years, even if it didn't quite work out as you might have hoped, keep your heads up.
But this post is not about shout outs or pretending like I'm friends with a bunch of good runners or kissing up to people and name dropping or anything like that, as much as I would like to keep bringing up people like my possible future training partner from CR North who ran a nice 16:44 this Friday, but serious I'm done. Moving on.
At some point later this week I will be posting my state predictions including: The top 5-10 teams (not exactly sure how deep I can go here, definitely can go through 6 or so, after that I'm fuzzy), my top 50 AAA boys (going to be a bit of a tough one here with a lot of names, but I'll give it a shot) and my top 25 AA boys (again this will probably look very rough, especially at the end, but just work with me). Hopefully each of these will come with some in depth analysis and be up by around Wednesday this week so people can check them out. Keep your fingers crossed.
Now, some of you are probably looking up at the title of this post and wondering when the heck is this kid going to stop bragging that he is a boss because he ran through snow and knows Francis Ferruzzi and tell us what the heck this Prediction Contest is. Well, this is the part of the post where your questions are answered.
For this upcoming state meet I challenge you all out there to correctly name more of the 25 state medalists in either AA or AAA boys. Order does not matter, I'm only looking for names. You can list up to 25 names, and as little as one name if you really want to (although I am fairly confident you will not beat with just one name, not to sound like the dude, but I mean my roommate from Vermont can probably get 10-12 just from living with me and listening to me blabber all day).
All you have to do is post a list of your 25 state medalists (chose just AA or just AAA for each entry. You can enter once for each, but keep the lists seperate because they will be scored seperately). Like I said all I need are the 25 names and your name. If you get the guy who finished 25th it is the same value as getting the guy who finished 1st.
Lists can be posted either as a comment on the blog, as a facebook message to me, as a post on penntrack as long as you address the post to me and post up a link to the blog (yay advertising), as a penntrack message to me, or as a text message to me.
Hopefully we can have some fun with this and in a week hopefully I won't be crying that all of my readers know the state better than I do. Game on gentlemen.
-train
District One Preview
So I was thinking about and I decided I could either go all out on this and really deliver for my fans or I could basically cop out and study for math stat test tomorrow and count my money that I have officially made. Well folks it was almost the first one when I just posted up a list of projected places, but I mean cmon, I'm etrain, I gotta committ, especially to the thing I probably know best, District One running.
So here we go, were looking at an intereting team battle here for starters. Not saying that I'm not on the Henderson winning bandwagon, because I am, but honestly I wouldn't be surprised to see North Penn swing the upset. Davis can definitely run better than he did at leagues, and this team on the whole exploded at this meet a year ago. Henderson is deeper through 5, much deeper through 5, than any other team is, but North Penn can definitely mix it up. Great Valley also a great team, especially if the Willig's stay hot at this meet and the team doesn't do what they did last time they were at Lehigh. No offense.
CR North consistently makes states, so very hard for me to pick against them, especially after a solid leagues race. Not extremely deep on the guys side team wise, but I've always like HGPrep this season and Israel is on my sleepers list this season. So those are my 5 teams. Pennsbury is the big surprise to mix it up in here, Haverford doesn't seem to have the fire power out front but maybe they will surprise me. Pennsbury has a huge sleeper in their freshman Webb, and Harriman has the potentail to be a top 10 guy which is always nice to have out front.
On to the individuals. Its tough not to pick Magaha, its his kind of course, he's running great, he's been hot at the right time, and oh yeah he can run 4:07 in the mile. So I've got Drew, depending on course conditions and how the race plays out he can scare 15:20. Hibbs for second, we shall see how it ends up because he has been throwing up lots of red flags as of late, but I trust his experience and gamerness to pull it out. Max Norris for District Champion? Nah I'm not that bold, but that kid has been running smart and fast, could be dangerous if Hibbs isn't the Hibbs we thought he was. Quinn obviously had a great race last week, and really only Magaha is hotter than him at this point. Yeah that could have sent the wrong impression, but don't read too much into it boys. Quinn bombed last year at Districts so let's hope this stage isn't too scary for him again.
Willig is a great kid and a great guy who I always have thought has the potential to run out of his mind this XC season. But I also was convinced he'd scare 9 minutes in the two mile rather than flipping it on me and running 1:51 three times. So here's the thing, that combined with the memory of Paul Short still fresh in my head just scares me too much to go higher than 5, but Ned please run fast so I can start bragging that I have met you. That is all.
Jacky Mac is looking way too much like he did last year coming into this meet when he surprised everybody and took home 11th and led North Penn to second place. No reason to think things are different at this point. Can't sleep on Brett Kelly. He's a state medalist last year, top 10 at Districts the past two years, and oh yeah he goes to the same school that Jason Weller and Mark Dennin went to. Put away your pillows boys.
Like I said Israel is my big sleeper this year so I'm high on him for this race. Harriman certainly has shown flashes of brilliance, lets hope lightening strikes again for the youngster. (I suppose he's a Jr so he's not that young but I'm in college now so you guys are all youngsters.) Russell is easy, how can a Henderson guy not be in the top 10? That's like saying Oprah won't be in the top 10 for richest women in the world.
At 11, perhaps a homer pick but I'm a huge Francis Ferruzzi fan, he's not just my neighbor but he also is a 9:36 two miler who will appreciate the chance to run in a race where his two choices are Drew Magaha (15:50) and Sam Brooks (16:50). Go get em kid.
About to skip around now a little bit (no offense to the next couple guys but I think its kinda obvious why I have a Henderson, North Penn and CR North guy in my top 15) here's the sleeper picks you want to remember on race day.
Pete Downs (finally showing the potential I thought he would show at Viking. Trad etrain being way to early on people), Jack Huemmler (maybe I'm making too much out of DELCOs, but I hope not), Ian Yankuso (who? Exactly, they are killed sleepers for a reason people), Sam Webb (if Kevin Kelly thinks the guy is gonna have a big race, how can I not think so), and Joesph O'Such (great at Paul Short, not so much anywhere else, lucky for him, Districts is a lot like Paul Short).
So there you go gents, hope you enjoy this little preview and good luck to all the D1 guys.
-train
So here we go, were looking at an intereting team battle here for starters. Not saying that I'm not on the Henderson winning bandwagon, because I am, but honestly I wouldn't be surprised to see North Penn swing the upset. Davis can definitely run better than he did at leagues, and this team on the whole exploded at this meet a year ago. Henderson is deeper through 5, much deeper through 5, than any other team is, but North Penn can definitely mix it up. Great Valley also a great team, especially if the Willig's stay hot at this meet and the team doesn't do what they did last time they were at Lehigh. No offense.
CR North consistently makes states, so very hard for me to pick against them, especially after a solid leagues race. Not extremely deep on the guys side team wise, but I've always like HGPrep this season and Israel is on my sleepers list this season. So those are my 5 teams. Pennsbury is the big surprise to mix it up in here, Haverford doesn't seem to have the fire power out front but maybe they will surprise me. Pennsbury has a huge sleeper in their freshman Webb, and Harriman has the potentail to be a top 10 guy which is always nice to have out front.
On to the individuals. Its tough not to pick Magaha, its his kind of course, he's running great, he's been hot at the right time, and oh yeah he can run 4:07 in the mile. So I've got Drew, depending on course conditions and how the race plays out he can scare 15:20. Hibbs for second, we shall see how it ends up because he has been throwing up lots of red flags as of late, but I trust his experience and gamerness to pull it out. Max Norris for District Champion? Nah I'm not that bold, but that kid has been running smart and fast, could be dangerous if Hibbs isn't the Hibbs we thought he was. Quinn obviously had a great race last week, and really only Magaha is hotter than him at this point. Yeah that could have sent the wrong impression, but don't read too much into it boys. Quinn bombed last year at Districts so let's hope this stage isn't too scary for him again.
Willig is a great kid and a great guy who I always have thought has the potential to run out of his mind this XC season. But I also was convinced he'd scare 9 minutes in the two mile rather than flipping it on me and running 1:51 three times. So here's the thing, that combined with the memory of Paul Short still fresh in my head just scares me too much to go higher than 5, but Ned please run fast so I can start bragging that I have met you. That is all.
Jacky Mac is looking way too much like he did last year coming into this meet when he surprised everybody and took home 11th and led North Penn to second place. No reason to think things are different at this point. Can't sleep on Brett Kelly. He's a state medalist last year, top 10 at Districts the past two years, and oh yeah he goes to the same school that Jason Weller and Mark Dennin went to. Put away your pillows boys.
Like I said Israel is my big sleeper this year so I'm high on him for this race. Harriman certainly has shown flashes of brilliance, lets hope lightening strikes again for the youngster. (I suppose he's a Jr so he's not that young but I'm in college now so you guys are all youngsters.) Russell is easy, how can a Henderson guy not be in the top 10? That's like saying Oprah won't be in the top 10 for richest women in the world.
At 11, perhaps a homer pick but I'm a huge Francis Ferruzzi fan, he's not just my neighbor but he also is a 9:36 two miler who will appreciate the chance to run in a race where his two choices are Drew Magaha (15:50) and Sam Brooks (16:50). Go get em kid.
About to skip around now a little bit (no offense to the next couple guys but I think its kinda obvious why I have a Henderson, North Penn and CR North guy in my top 15) here's the sleeper picks you want to remember on race day.
Pete Downs (finally showing the potential I thought he would show at Viking. Trad etrain being way to early on people), Jack Huemmler (maybe I'm making too much out of DELCOs, but I hope not), Ian Yankuso (who? Exactly, they are killed sleepers for a reason people), Sam Webb (if Kevin Kelly thinks the guy is gonna have a big race, how can I not think so), and Joesph O'Such (great at Paul Short, not so much anywhere else, lucky for him, Districts is a lot like Paul Short).
So there you go gents, hope you enjoy this little preview and good luck to all the D1 guys.
-train
Thanks
I logged on to my blog account yesterday, checking the money values at the top, still just a few dollars away from the $100 I needed to get my first adsense check. This morning, I woke up and I was there. It's pretty crazy to think that this month has taken the blog to a whole new level. I have always loved high school track, and I have never been able to stay away from the game. Talking to runners, reading up on results. Its hard to stay touch in while I'm away at college, but my readers and fans have really made me feel like I haven't quite lost my step yet. This is an extremely proud moment for me, to have made money just from writing about track, just from putting my passion out there for everyone else to see.
So now I sit here, listening to Up Up and Away by Kid Cudi, preparing to move on to Foster the People next, and pondering the new district results and the big race for Groh (finally pulled through and showed that potential I talked about a couple weeks back, now if only I could get Kutcha to do that). It's who I am, it's what I have become, and to some people it is all they know me as. I've talked to so many people online who I have never actually met in person, learned so many names with no face that I can put to them. It's been a crazy experience, over 4 years in the making, from my first penntrack posts until now.
I have to thank some people in particular if I'm really going to do this properly. First of all I'd like to thank my parents. They have always been great supporters of letting me do whatever I wanted to do sports wise and have encouraged me to do what makes me happy and believe in my ideas. Without them,this blog would never have been started. Another huge, huge thanks to my brother Luke. He started this blog, set me up with Adsense and really helped me get the technology going on this thing. Without him etrain would have died out a long time ago, but now the legend is perhaps bigger than ever.
And of course the fans, everyone has been so supportive of me and asked great questions and contributed positively to discussion. Some guys in particular like the UD guys back home, Todd and Francis and even guys like Evan Mao who stay up on reading everything. The Muhlenberg guys, half of whom have no idea what any of this stuff is about like Will and Kenny and Bobby and Charlie and Andy and Luke and many more, but still read and click and ask me about how things are going.
And so many more great people, this is really a team effort, and the last month has just really humbled me.
Good luck to everyone as championship season winds down.
Stay classy
-train
So now I sit here, listening to Up Up and Away by Kid Cudi, preparing to move on to Foster the People next, and pondering the new district results and the big race for Groh (finally pulled through and showed that potential I talked about a couple weeks back, now if only I could get Kutcha to do that). It's who I am, it's what I have become, and to some people it is all they know me as. I've talked to so many people online who I have never actually met in person, learned so many names with no face that I can put to them. It's been a crazy experience, over 4 years in the making, from my first penntrack posts until now.
I have to thank some people in particular if I'm really going to do this properly. First of all I'd like to thank my parents. They have always been great supporters of letting me do whatever I wanted to do sports wise and have encouraged me to do what makes me happy and believe in my ideas. Without them,this blog would never have been started. Another huge, huge thanks to my brother Luke. He started this blog, set me up with Adsense and really helped me get the technology going on this thing. Without him etrain would have died out a long time ago, but now the legend is perhaps bigger than ever.
And of course the fans, everyone has been so supportive of me and asked great questions and contributed positively to discussion. Some guys in particular like the UD guys back home, Todd and Francis and even guys like Evan Mao who stay up on reading everything. The Muhlenberg guys, half of whom have no idea what any of this stuff is about like Will and Kenny and Bobby and Charlie and Andy and Luke and many more, but still read and click and ask me about how things are going.
And so many more great people, this is really a team effort, and the last month has just really humbled me.
Good luck to everyone as championship season winds down.
Stay classy
-train
District One Predictions
Here's my predictions for districts, teamwise I have Henderson, North Penn, Great Valley, CR North, HGP in that order. Ignore the times and places other than the ones on the far side, those are from everyone's league meets so they aren't really extremely relevant to the predictions, but they helped shape my ideas. Enjoy.
1. 2 2 Drew Magaha, Sr 15:50 5:06 Upper Moreland Boys
2. 3 3 Sam Hibbs, Sr 15:53 5:07 Hatboro-Horsham
3. 1 Norris, Max 13 Harriton 16:24.34 1
4. 1 1 Conner Quinn, Jr 15:47 5:05 Hatboro-Horsham
5. 1 1 Ned Willig Sr Great Valley 15:58 5:09
6. 4 4 Jack Macauley, Jr 15:58 5:09 North Penn High Schoo
7. 1 1 Brett Kelly, Sr 16:06 5:12 Boyertown
8. Zach Israel HGP 15:48
9. 5 5 Connor Harriman, Jr 16:00 5:10 Pennsbury, Boys
10. Tony Russell
11. 9 9 Francis Ferruzzi, Jr 16:21 5:16 Upper Dublin
12. Sam Haugh So West Chester Henderson 16:17
13. 7 7 Dan Davis, Sr 16:10 5:13 NorthHigh
14. Mac Emery
15. Charlie Grab
16. 2 Downs, Peter 12 Harriton 16:24.74 2
17. Chris Trimble
18. 11 11 Alex Kane, Sr 16:25 5:18 Cb East - M
19. 3 Huemmler, Jack 13 Strath Haven 16:36.19
20. 2 2 Ian Yanusko, Jr 16:26 5:18 Pottsgrove
21. 3 3 Matt Willig So Great Valley 16:33 5:20
22. 16 16 Kenny Leidal Jr Downingtown West 16:53 5:26
23. Ryan Horgan
24. 5 5 Joe O'Such, Sr 16:45 5:24 Spring-Ford
25. 10 10 Ross Wilson, So 16:23 5:17 Council Rock
26. 4 4 Aj Chaborek Jr West Chester Henderson 16:35 5:21
27. 12 12 Connor Linse, Jr 16:31 5:20 Souderton Men
28. 20 20 Sam Webb, Fr 16:52 5:26 Pennsbury,
29. 6 6 Garrett Zatlin So Great Valley 16:38 5:22
30. 8 8 Mike Salach Sr West Chester Henderson 16:45 5:24
31. 4 Smart, Anthony 13 Garnet Valley 16:39.88 4
32. 5 Smart, Nick 14 Garnet Valley 16:40.35
33. 7 Miller, Pat 12 Penncrest 16:43.05 7 34. 15 15 James Zingarini, Jr 16:38 5:22 Council Rock
35. 13 13 Chris Berry, Jr 16:35 5:21 Cbwest-M
36. 14 14 Alex Predhome, Sr 16:37 5:21 Cbwest-M
37. 21 21 Sam Brooks, Sr 16:54 5:27 Wissahickon
38. 24 24 Alec Brand, Jr 16:56 5:28 Cb East - M
39. 5 5 Joey Steadman Jr Downingtown West 16:36 5:21
40. 4 4 Chris Mullin, Sr 16:44 5:24 Phoenixville
41. Christian Kardish HGP 16:27
42. 8 Kays, Jon 12 Haverford 16:44.17 8
43. 26 26 Steve Williamson, So 16:59 5:29 Upper Dublin
44. 17 17 Matt Molloy, So 16:42 5:23 North Penn High Schoo
45. 6 6 Sean Hodgins, Jr 16:49 5:25 Perkiomen Valley
46. 6 Mogavero, Jeff 12 Haverford 16:41.07 6
47. 7 7 Jesse Magolon, Sr 16:54 5:27 Spring-Ford
48. 16 16 Stephen Chappell, Sr 16:41 5:23 Cb South-M
49. 3 3 Avery Scripture, Jr 16:28 5:18 Upper Perkiomen
50. 17 17 Jack McDonald Sr West Chester East 16:58 5:28
51. 7 7 Seamus Collins So West Chester Henderson 16:43 5:23
52. 10 10 Billy Wolffe Jr Great Valley 16:49 5:25
53. 15 15 Steve Yannacone Jr Unionville 16:52 5:26
54. 27 27 Brad Rivera, Jr 17:00 5:29 Bensalem Hs
55. 22 22 Joe Logue, So 16:55 5:27 Pennridge Boys
56. 23 23 Ryan Grace, So 16:55 5:27 North Penn High Schoo
57. 18 18 Kyle Francis, So 16:45 5:24 Bensalem Hs
58. 19 19 John Simila, Sr 16:47 5:25 William Tennent
59. 9 O'Donnell, Brian 12 Garnet Valley 16:44.95 9 60. Vincent Flood
1. 2 2 Drew Magaha, Sr 15:50 5:06 Upper Moreland Boys
2. 3 3 Sam Hibbs, Sr 15:53 5:07 Hatboro-Horsham
3. 1 Norris, Max 13 Harriton 16:24.34 1
4. 1 1 Conner Quinn, Jr 15:47 5:05 Hatboro-Horsham
5. 1 1 Ned Willig Sr Great Valley 15:58 5:09
6. 4 4 Jack Macauley, Jr 15:58 5:09 North Penn High Schoo
7. 1 1 Brett Kelly, Sr 16:06 5:12 Boyertown
8. Zach Israel HGP 15:48
9. 5 5 Connor Harriman, Jr 16:00 5:10 Pennsbury, Boys
10. Tony Russell
11. 9 9 Francis Ferruzzi, Jr 16:21 5:16 Upper Dublin
12. Sam Haugh So West Chester Henderson 16:17
13. 7 7 Dan Davis, Sr 16:10 5:13 NorthHigh
14. Mac Emery
15. Charlie Grab
16. 2 Downs, Peter 12 Harriton 16:24.74 2
17. Chris Trimble
18. 11 11 Alex Kane, Sr 16:25 5:18 Cb East - M
19. 3 Huemmler, Jack 13 Strath Haven 16:36.19
20. 2 2 Ian Yanusko, Jr 16:26 5:18 Pottsgrove
21. 3 3 Matt Willig So Great Valley 16:33 5:20
22. 16 16 Kenny Leidal Jr Downingtown West 16:53 5:26
23. Ryan Horgan
24. 5 5 Joe O'Such, Sr 16:45 5:24 Spring-Ford
25. 10 10 Ross Wilson, So 16:23 5:17 Council Rock
26. 4 4 Aj Chaborek Jr West Chester Henderson 16:35 5:21
27. 12 12 Connor Linse, Jr 16:31 5:20 Souderton Men
28. 20 20 Sam Webb, Fr 16:52 5:26 Pennsbury,
29. 6 6 Garrett Zatlin So Great Valley 16:38 5:22
30. 8 8 Mike Salach Sr West Chester Henderson 16:45 5:24
31. 4 Smart, Anthony 13 Garnet Valley 16:39.88 4
32. 5 Smart, Nick 14 Garnet Valley 16:40.35
33. 7 Miller, Pat 12 Penncrest 16:43.05 7 34. 15 15 James Zingarini, Jr 16:38 5:22 Council Rock
35. 13 13 Chris Berry, Jr 16:35 5:21 Cbwest-M
36. 14 14 Alex Predhome, Sr 16:37 5:21 Cbwest-M
37. 21 21 Sam Brooks, Sr 16:54 5:27 Wissahickon
38. 24 24 Alec Brand, Jr 16:56 5:28 Cb East - M
39. 5 5 Joey Steadman Jr Downingtown West 16:36 5:21
40. 4 4 Chris Mullin, Sr 16:44 5:24 Phoenixville
41. Christian Kardish HGP 16:27
42. 8 Kays, Jon 12 Haverford 16:44.17 8
43. 26 26 Steve Williamson, So 16:59 5:29 Upper Dublin
44. 17 17 Matt Molloy, So 16:42 5:23 North Penn High Schoo
45. 6 6 Sean Hodgins, Jr 16:49 5:25 Perkiomen Valley
46. 6 Mogavero, Jeff 12 Haverford 16:41.07 6
47. 7 7 Jesse Magolon, Sr 16:54 5:27 Spring-Ford
48. 16 16 Stephen Chappell, Sr 16:41 5:23 Cb South-M
49. 3 3 Avery Scripture, Jr 16:28 5:18 Upper Perkiomen
50. 17 17 Jack McDonald Sr West Chester East 16:58 5:28
51. 7 7 Seamus Collins So West Chester Henderson 16:43 5:23
52. 10 10 Billy Wolffe Jr Great Valley 16:49 5:25
53. 15 15 Steve Yannacone Jr Unionville 16:52 5:26
54. 27 27 Brad Rivera, Jr 17:00 5:29 Bensalem Hs
55. 22 22 Joe Logue, So 16:55 5:27 Pennridge Boys
56. 23 23 Ryan Grace, So 16:55 5:27 North Penn High Schoo
57. 18 18 Kyle Francis, So 16:45 5:24 Bensalem Hs
58. 19 19 John Simila, Sr 16:47 5:25 William Tennent
59. 9 O'Donnell, Brian 12 Garnet Valley 16:44.95 9 60. Vincent Flood
State Qualifiers
This will be a running list of guys who off the top of my head I think will qualify for states, I will post updated ones after races are completed as to has actually qualified. They will helpfully be in sync with the previews that I post. Obviously my predictions do not account for every single qualifying spot so I do think other guys beyond the ones I post will make it through, however, I can not say them with complete confidence so I have left them off the lists. Only the teams/individuals with numbers before them have a projected finishing place. The other names I just have making states although I have not listed where exactly I predict they will finish in the race.
Already Qualified
D8: Allerdice, Lapp, Weirzchowski, Bruce
D3: Anville Celona, Lancaster Mennonite
3 Xavier Sauvageau, Jr 4:58 10:30 17:02 5:29 Littlestown
5 4 John Clark, Sr 5:08 10:53 17:25 5:37 Boiling Springs
6 5 Jonathan Goodson, So 5:09 10:54 17:26 5:37 Boiling Springs
7 6 Nick Poole, Jr 5:03 10:54 17:29 5:38 Delone Catholic
8 Brady Wilt, Fr 5:03 10:54 17:31 5:39 Biglerville
10 8 Sam Bohn, Sr 5:09 10:53 17:38 5:41 Boiling Springs
11 9 David Welsh, So 5:18 11:07 17:39 5:41 Kutztown
12 10 Connor Mertz, So 5:09 11:00 17:41 5:42 Kutztown
13 11 Ben Grove, Sr 11:05 17:42 5:42 Boiling Springs
14 12 James Vadas, Sr 5:11 10:59 17:46 5:44 York Catholic
15 13 Kyle Shinn, Fr 5:08 11:06 17:47 5:44 Wyomissing Area
Chambersburg, Governor Mifflin, Cumberland Valley, Red Lion, Lower Dauphin
2 2 Ryan Hertzog, Jr 4:57 10:23 16:34 5:21 South Western
3 3 John Felts, Sr 4:56 10:22 16:36 5:21 Red Land
5 5 Vinny Todaro, Jr 4:54 10:26 16:37 5:21 Big Spring
6 6 Connor Strynkowski, Sr 4:52 10:25 16:38 5:22 Palmyra
8 8 Luke Miller, Sr 4:56 10:31 16:39 5:22 Daniel Boone
10 10 John Ausel, Sr 4:55 10:25 16:41 5:23 Solanco
11 11 Adam Katora, Sr 4:54 10:26 16:45 5:24 Dallastown Area
12 12 Harrison Schettler, Jr 4:58 10:24 16:53 5:27 Penn Manor
13 Kyle Klaboe, Sr 5:14 10:42 16:55 5:27 Central Dauphin East
14 13 Corbin Padgett, Jr 5:08 10:36 16:57 5:28 Carlisle
18 17 Tyler Sensenig, Sr 5:04 10:44 17:05 5:30 Ephrata
19 18 Liam Corcoran, Jr 4:57 10:30 17:05 5:31 James Buchanan
20 19 Nate Kreider, Sr 4:53 10:35 17:06 5:31 Elizabethtown
21 20 Joey Warner, Sr 5:05 10:39 17:07 5:31 Manheim Township
22 21 Nathan Repetz, Jr 5:10 10:49 17:07 5:31 Cedar Cliff
23 22 Bryce Ebersole, Sr 5:04 10:45 17:07 5:31 Cedar Crest
24 23 Ben Mueller, Jr 5:05 10:39 17:08 5:31 Warwick
25 Kevin Chambers, Sr 10:43 17:08 5:32 West York Area
26 24 Jordan Crawford, Jr 5:05 10:45 17:09 5:32 Cedar Cliff
27 25 Connor Zimmerman, Jr 5:00 10:33 17:09 5:32 Manheim Township
28 26 Nate Hamilton, Jr 5:06 10:46 17:11 5:32 Hershey
29 27 Jonathan Bitner, Jr 10:58 17:13 5:33 Penn Manor
32 30 Matthew Sankey, Jr 5:03 10:49 17:18 5:35 Daniel Boone
35 33 David Peterson, Sr 5:06 10:48 17:20 5:35 Conrad Weiser
37 35 Daniel Neiswender, So 5:02 10:47 17:21 5:36 Cedar Crest
D2: Dallas
3 1 1 Sean Burke, Sr 5:08 16:35 5:21 Abington Heights
698 2 2 Aaron Wilkinson, Sr 5:09 16:45 5:24 Valley View
661 4 4 Jake Siegel, Sr 5:06 17:02 5:29 Tunkhannock Area
608 6 6 Mike Brier, Jr 5:12 17:21 5:36 Scranton Prep
261 8 8 Jacob Fetterman, Jr 5:13 17:23 5:36 Hazleton Area
Holy Reedemer, Blue Ridge
208 1 1 Luke Jones, Jr 5:02 16:45 5:24 Elk Lake
290 2 2 Rico Galassi, Jr 5:01 17:05 5:31 Holy Cross
394 7 7 Jacob Bevan, Sr 5:18 18:01 5:49 Lake-Lehman
173 8 8 Brandon Murray, Jr 5:24 18:07 5:50 Dunmore
281 11 11 Antonio Hastie, Sr 5:29 18:12 5:52 Holy Cross
169 12 12 Todd Davenport, Sr 5:24 18:12 5:52 Dunmore
432 13 13 Mike Petcavage, So 18:14 5:53 Mid Valley
400 14 14 Kieran Sutton, Jr 5:17 18:16 5:53 Lake-Lehman
416 15 15 Mark Arzie, Fr 5:25 18:21 5:55 Lakeland
426 17 17 Jason Sansky, Sr 5:39 18:22 5:55 Mid Valley
411 19 19 Paul Szustakowski, Sr 5:44 18:34 5:59 Lakeland
D11: Parkland, Nazareth
1 1 Cole Campbell, Sr 5:22 17:00 5:29 Emmaus
2 2 Nathaniel Palmer, Sr 5:22 17:04 5:30 Freedom
4 4 Jaryd Flank, Jr 5:22 17:07 5:31 Wilson Area
5 5 Colin Abert, Fr 5:25 17:12 5:33 Easton Area
6 6 Alec Lederer, Jr 5:23 17:19 5:35 Northampton
7 7 Jason Graybill, Sr 5:26 17:21 5:36 Emmaus
8 8 Mark Pfaeffle, Sr 5:28 17:23 5:36 Stroudsburg
10 10 Tyler Laubach, Sr 5:22 17:24 5:37 Northampton
11 11 Wade White, Jr 5:26 17:33 5:39 Bangor
12 12 Matt Koch, Jr 5:24 17:36 5:40 Stroudsburg
Notre Dame Green Pond, Allentown CC
1 1 Brendan Shearn, 3 5:03 16:33 5:20 North Schuylkill
2 2 Tyler Stelmack, 3 5:08 17:02 5:29 Northwestern Lehigh 2
3 3 Brett Gubitosi, 4 5:19 17:34 5:40 Notre Dame (East Stro
4 4 Kyle Gonoude, 1 5:27 17:40 5:42 Salisbury Township
5 5 Doug Wells, 4 5:23 17:41 5:42 Mahanoy Area
7 7 Tony Brinkley, 3 5:28 17:55 5:47 Catasauqua
8 8 Kyler Burke, 4 5:27 17:56 5:47 Pine Grove Area
10 10 John Donchez, 2 5:34 18:00 5:48 Bethlehem Catholic
14 14 Joey Duffy, 3 5:40 18:24 5:56 Northwestern Lehigh 2
16 16 Garrett Collins, 3 5:37 18:28 5:57 Salisbury Township
17 17 Jameson Packer, 4 5:36 18:29 5:58 Saucon Valley
Predicted Qualifiers
D2: AAA- 1. Dallas, AA- 1. Holy Reedmer, 2. Holy Cross
AAA- 1. Burke, 2. Wilkinson, Robinson, Siegel, AA- 1. Jones
D3: AAA- 1. Chambersburg, 2. Lower Dauphin, 3. Manheim Township, 4. Governor Mifflin, 5. Cumberland Valley, AA- 1. Anville Celona, 2. Oley Valley
AAA- 1. Connor Strynkowski, 2. Felts, 3. Katora, Ausel, Kreider, Croft, Todaro AA- 1. Schatz
D4: AA- 1. Canton 2. Sullivan County, AA- 1. Jewett, 2. Williams
AAA- 1. Shamokin
D11: AA- 1. Notre Dame HS Green P 2. Northwestern Lehigh, 1. Shearn 2. Regan
AAA- 1. Nazareth 2. Parkland, 1. Palmer, 2. Pfaelffle 3. Campbell 4. Laubach
D7: AAA- 1. Mt. Lebanon 2. North Allegheny 3. Kiski Area 4. Pitt Central Catholic, 4. Kennedy, 5. Kutcha, Wakeley, Kelly, Boccabella, Faye, Urso, Martin, Baily
AA- 1. Quaker Valley, Bagamery
D1: AAA- 1. Henderson 2. North Penn 3. Great Valley 4. CR North 5. Holy Ghost Prep, 1. Magaha 2. Hibbs
D12: AAA- 1. O'Hara 2. LaSalle, Glatts, Muldoon, Flanagan
D6: AAA- 1. Altoona, Monroe
D10: AA- 1. North East, 2. West Middlesex, 3. General McClane, 2. Johnston 3. Tallada AAA- 1. Grove City, 2. Pondel
Already Qualified
D8: Allerdice, Lapp, Weirzchowski, Bruce
D3: Anville Celona, Lancaster Mennonite
3 Xavier Sauvageau, Jr 4:58 10:30 17:02 5:29 Littlestown
5 4 John Clark, Sr 5:08 10:53 17:25 5:37 Boiling Springs
6 5 Jonathan Goodson, So 5:09 10:54 17:26 5:37 Boiling Springs
7 6 Nick Poole, Jr 5:03 10:54 17:29 5:38 Delone Catholic
8 Brady Wilt, Fr 5:03 10:54 17:31 5:39 Biglerville
10 8 Sam Bohn, Sr 5:09 10:53 17:38 5:41 Boiling Springs
11 9 David Welsh, So 5:18 11:07 17:39 5:41 Kutztown
12 10 Connor Mertz, So 5:09 11:00 17:41 5:42 Kutztown
13 11 Ben Grove, Sr 11:05 17:42 5:42 Boiling Springs
14 12 James Vadas, Sr 5:11 10:59 17:46 5:44 York Catholic
15 13 Kyle Shinn, Fr 5:08 11:06 17:47 5:44 Wyomissing Area
Chambersburg, Governor Mifflin, Cumberland Valley, Red Lion, Lower Dauphin
2 2 Ryan Hertzog, Jr 4:57 10:23 16:34 5:21 South Western
3 3 John Felts, Sr 4:56 10:22 16:36 5:21 Red Land
5 5 Vinny Todaro, Jr 4:54 10:26 16:37 5:21 Big Spring
6 6 Connor Strynkowski, Sr 4:52 10:25 16:38 5:22 Palmyra
8 8 Luke Miller, Sr 4:56 10:31 16:39 5:22 Daniel Boone
10 10 John Ausel, Sr 4:55 10:25 16:41 5:23 Solanco
11 11 Adam Katora, Sr 4:54 10:26 16:45 5:24 Dallastown Area
12 12 Harrison Schettler, Jr 4:58 10:24 16:53 5:27 Penn Manor
13 Kyle Klaboe, Sr 5:14 10:42 16:55 5:27 Central Dauphin East
14 13 Corbin Padgett, Jr 5:08 10:36 16:57 5:28 Carlisle
18 17 Tyler Sensenig, Sr 5:04 10:44 17:05 5:30 Ephrata
19 18 Liam Corcoran, Jr 4:57 10:30 17:05 5:31 James Buchanan
20 19 Nate Kreider, Sr 4:53 10:35 17:06 5:31 Elizabethtown
21 20 Joey Warner, Sr 5:05 10:39 17:07 5:31 Manheim Township
22 21 Nathan Repetz, Jr 5:10 10:49 17:07 5:31 Cedar Cliff
23 22 Bryce Ebersole, Sr 5:04 10:45 17:07 5:31 Cedar Crest
24 23 Ben Mueller, Jr 5:05 10:39 17:08 5:31 Warwick
25 Kevin Chambers, Sr 10:43 17:08 5:32 West York Area
26 24 Jordan Crawford, Jr 5:05 10:45 17:09 5:32 Cedar Cliff
27 25 Connor Zimmerman, Jr 5:00 10:33 17:09 5:32 Manheim Township
28 26 Nate Hamilton, Jr 5:06 10:46 17:11 5:32 Hershey
29 27 Jonathan Bitner, Jr 10:58 17:13 5:33 Penn Manor
32 30 Matthew Sankey, Jr 5:03 10:49 17:18 5:35 Daniel Boone
35 33 David Peterson, Sr 5:06 10:48 17:20 5:35 Conrad Weiser
37 35 Daniel Neiswender, So 5:02 10:47 17:21 5:36 Cedar Crest
D2: Dallas
3 1 1 Sean Burke, Sr 5:08 16:35 5:21 Abington Heights
698 2 2 Aaron Wilkinson, Sr 5:09 16:45 5:24 Valley View
661 4 4 Jake Siegel, Sr 5:06 17:02 5:29 Tunkhannock Area
608 6 6 Mike Brier, Jr 5:12 17:21 5:36 Scranton Prep
261 8 8 Jacob Fetterman, Jr 5:13 17:23 5:36 Hazleton Area
Holy Reedemer, Blue Ridge
208 1 1 Luke Jones, Jr 5:02 16:45 5:24 Elk Lake
290 2 2 Rico Galassi, Jr 5:01 17:05 5:31 Holy Cross
394 7 7 Jacob Bevan, Sr 5:18 18:01 5:49 Lake-Lehman
173 8 8 Brandon Murray, Jr 5:24 18:07 5:50 Dunmore
281 11 11 Antonio Hastie, Sr 5:29 18:12 5:52 Holy Cross
169 12 12 Todd Davenport, Sr 5:24 18:12 5:52 Dunmore
432 13 13 Mike Petcavage, So 18:14 5:53 Mid Valley
400 14 14 Kieran Sutton, Jr 5:17 18:16 5:53 Lake-Lehman
416 15 15 Mark Arzie, Fr 5:25 18:21 5:55 Lakeland
426 17 17 Jason Sansky, Sr 5:39 18:22 5:55 Mid Valley
411 19 19 Paul Szustakowski, Sr 5:44 18:34 5:59 Lakeland
D11: Parkland, Nazareth
1 1 Cole Campbell, Sr 5:22 17:00 5:29 Emmaus
2 2 Nathaniel Palmer, Sr 5:22 17:04 5:30 Freedom
4 4 Jaryd Flank, Jr 5:22 17:07 5:31 Wilson Area
5 5 Colin Abert, Fr 5:25 17:12 5:33 Easton Area
6 6 Alec Lederer, Jr 5:23 17:19 5:35 Northampton
7 7 Jason Graybill, Sr 5:26 17:21 5:36 Emmaus
8 8 Mark Pfaeffle, Sr 5:28 17:23 5:36 Stroudsburg
10 10 Tyler Laubach, Sr 5:22 17:24 5:37 Northampton
11 11 Wade White, Jr 5:26 17:33 5:39 Bangor
12 12 Matt Koch, Jr 5:24 17:36 5:40 Stroudsburg
Notre Dame Green Pond, Allentown CC
1 1 Brendan Shearn, 3 5:03 16:33 5:20 North Schuylkill
2 2 Tyler Stelmack, 3 5:08 17:02 5:29 Northwestern Lehigh 2
3 3 Brett Gubitosi, 4 5:19 17:34 5:40 Notre Dame (East Stro
4 4 Kyle Gonoude, 1 5:27 17:40 5:42 Salisbury Township
5 5 Doug Wells, 4 5:23 17:41 5:42 Mahanoy Area
7 7 Tony Brinkley, 3 5:28 17:55 5:47 Catasauqua
8 8 Kyler Burke, 4 5:27 17:56 5:47 Pine Grove Area
10 10 John Donchez, 2 5:34 18:00 5:48 Bethlehem Catholic
14 14 Joey Duffy, 3 5:40 18:24 5:56 Northwestern Lehigh 2
16 16 Garrett Collins, 3 5:37 18:28 5:57 Salisbury Township
17 17 Jameson Packer, 4 5:36 18:29 5:58 Saucon Valley
Predicted Qualifiers
D2: AAA- 1. Dallas, AA- 1. Holy Reedmer, 2. Holy Cross
AAA- 1. Burke, 2. Wilkinson, Robinson, Siegel, AA- 1. Jones
D3: AAA- 1. Chambersburg, 2. Lower Dauphin, 3. Manheim Township, 4. Governor Mifflin, 5. Cumberland Valley, AA- 1. Anville Celona, 2. Oley Valley
AAA- 1. Connor Strynkowski, 2. Felts, 3. Katora, Ausel, Kreider, Croft, Todaro AA- 1. Schatz
D4: AA- 1. Canton 2. Sullivan County, AA- 1. Jewett, 2. Williams
AAA- 1. Shamokin
D11: AA- 1. Notre Dame HS Green P 2. Northwestern Lehigh, 1. Shearn 2. Regan
AAA- 1. Nazareth 2. Parkland, 1. Palmer, 2. Pfaelffle 3. Campbell 4. Laubach
D7: AAA- 1. Mt. Lebanon 2. North Allegheny 3. Kiski Area 4. Pitt Central Catholic, 4. Kennedy, 5. Kutcha, Wakeley, Kelly, Boccabella, Faye, Urso, Martin, Baily
AA- 1. Quaker Valley, Bagamery
D1: AAA- 1. Henderson 2. North Penn 3. Great Valley 4. CR North 5. Holy Ghost Prep, 1. Magaha 2. Hibbs
D12: AAA- 1. O'Hara 2. LaSalle, Glatts, Muldoon, Flanagan
D6: AAA- 1. Altoona, Monroe
D10: AA- 1. North East, 2. West Middlesex, 3. General McClane, 2. Johnston 3. Tallada AAA- 1. Grove City, 2. Pondel
District Previews
District 8 Championships 10/22
AAA: Ean DiSilvio and Allerdice are the defending champions at this meet, and coming off a breakout season thus far in 2010, DiSilvio looks to lead his team back to states and defend his title. Rarely ever has District 8 had a huge impact on the state's scene, but this year DiSilvio and his teammates look to change that. Senior Barrett Adams and Sophomore Nathan Meyers are two other top returners. Allerdice returns their entire 6 varsity runners from last year's state meet where they finished 21st.
Distrct 2 Championships 10/26
AAA: Reece Ayers, the District 2 superstar, has finally graduated, opening the door for a new competitor to take the gold. Ayers' departure from Tunkhannock has really hit the team hard this season. The defending champions have struggled, and it looks like Dallas is ready to overrun them and seize the title this season. Deluca beat Robinson and Seigel at their league championships. Dallas was 2nd last year and returns 3 of their top 5. Meanwhile, individually, Sean Burke and Aaron Wilkinson have snuck their way into the top 25 of the ET rankings and are both poised to take their first District Championship. Wilkinson is the top returner and ran to an 18th place finish at last years state championship. He is often under the radar and has mixed it up with some of the top runners throughout the season including the Paul Short Invitational. Burke has also been to the big meets and has shown a lot of potential for a breakout performance at this meet. Burke was 31 seconds back from Wilkinson a year ago, this year things should be much tighter.
AA: Luke Jones won the championship a year ago as a sophomore over the eventual AA runner up AJ Lomongelli. Jones returns with a very solid set of performances under his belt which have earned him a top 10 ET ranking on the AA side. Jones, now a Junior leads a group of underclassmen who are seeking the individual crown, the top 5 returners from last year's meet are all Juniors this season. Holy Redeemer, always a team to watch, is the defending champions, and although they only return 4 of last year's 7, and 2 of last year's 5, the team still looks poised to return to the state championships. Holy Cross returns a lot from last years 3rd place finish, including a host of talent seniors, but Elk Lake has historically been a power house and surely will not fold easily at this championship meet, especially if Jones brings home a second straight gold out front.
District 3 Championships 10/26
AAA: The top 9 runners from a season ago have graduated, leaving the race wide open for a new face to make a name for himself. That new face looks to be Connor Strynkowski at this point in the season, after a terrific track season last spring, a hot streak of solid races in the past month, including a great run at Gettysburg and a win at Mid Penns. The other top guys from Mid Penns, John Felts, Jeff Groh, and Cole Nissley will also be in the mix for the title at Hershey. Groh and Nissley, both sophomores, have looked much sharper as of late and are starting to show some of the potential they did last season. John Ausel has to be a sleeper in the race, he's the top returner from a year ago. In addition, Adam Katora should not be left out of the Gold medal conversation after a very successful XC season thus far. Evan Williams, Alec Kunzweiler, and Nate Kreider all have also made a splash on the rankings this season, and will be names to remember on race day. In the team battle, it will be another close battle. Hempfield surprised a year ago, but this year the race seems to be between Chambersburg, Lower Dauphin and Governor Mifflin. Lower Dauphin with two strong front runners, Chambersburg and Governor Mifflin with talent packs of runners. Cumberland Valley is also always in the conversation as a team to make states and last year's 5th place finishers Manheim Township also look like they should be heading back to the big dance in November.
AA: The District 3 Champion has went on to win states for 4 straight years now and they look to hold this streak again in 2011. Out front Gruschow and Noll have graduated leaving a race between the talent Anville Celona juniors and Lancaster Mennonite's Jared Schatz. Schatz had a great run at the Lebanon Lancaster League championships and looks poised to ride that momentum into the district championships and take down the gold. The boys from Anville will be racing for more than just individual glory, as they are the defending district champions scoring just 34 points a year ago. They are the favorites this season to defend their title with possible surprises coming from Oley Valley to try and snag the second spot to states.
District 11 Championships 10/27
AA: Brendan Shearn is the name to watch as he is a huge favorite over the rest of the field. He starts his quest to be AA state champ.
AAA: Nate Palmer won his league meet which has to give him confidence going into this race. The Nazareth boys are also feeling good off their championship. As the defending champs Nazareth has to be the favorite to win again this season, but just like last year it should be tight for the first 2 spots to states. Cole Campbell, Tyler Laubach and others will also mix it up for the title in a relatively open field, especially compared to the AA side.
District 12 Championships 10/27
AAA: O'Hara and their squad look to continue their undefeated season and defend their District title, fresh off their convincing PCL win less than a week ago. To turn in two tough efforts on the Belmont course so close to each other will be a challenge, but hopefully one that doesn't take too much out of the legs of these competitors by states. O'Hara should be able to win comfortably, but out front Coyle and Savage should rematch once again in another tight race. LaSalle hopes to take the second team spot, but Chris Muldoon and his squad will also challenge for a trip to states.
District 4 Championships 10/27
AA: Curt Jewett and Sam Williams lead the defending champs Northeast Bradford in a quest to return to states both as individuals and as a team. Jewett is the top returner and has beat Williams at most races this season, but Williams has beat Jewett on the Hershey course their last two meetings. May not be a factor for this District race, but is something to consider come states.
District 7 Championships 10/27
See Gigagantor
AA: LJ Westwood and Nat Fox will look to lead Quaker Valley back to states. Quaker Valley flat out dominated the race a year ago, and has just about all their pieces back to do it again. Westwood is the defending champion, but his shaky midseason results may leave room for upset from Bagamery or Fox.
District 1 Championships 10/28
(Coming Soon)
District 10 Championships 10/29
(Coming Soon)
District 6 Championships 10/29
(Coming Soon)
District 9 Championships 10/29
(Coming Soon)
AAA: Ean DiSilvio and Allerdice are the defending champions at this meet, and coming off a breakout season thus far in 2010, DiSilvio looks to lead his team back to states and defend his title. Rarely ever has District 8 had a huge impact on the state's scene, but this year DiSilvio and his teammates look to change that. Senior Barrett Adams and Sophomore Nathan Meyers are two other top returners. Allerdice returns their entire 6 varsity runners from last year's state meet where they finished 21st.
Distrct 2 Championships 10/26
AAA: Reece Ayers, the District 2 superstar, has finally graduated, opening the door for a new competitor to take the gold. Ayers' departure from Tunkhannock has really hit the team hard this season. The defending champions have struggled, and it looks like Dallas is ready to overrun them and seize the title this season. Deluca beat Robinson and Seigel at their league championships. Dallas was 2nd last year and returns 3 of their top 5. Meanwhile, individually, Sean Burke and Aaron Wilkinson have snuck their way into the top 25 of the ET rankings and are both poised to take their first District Championship. Wilkinson is the top returner and ran to an 18th place finish at last years state championship. He is often under the radar and has mixed it up with some of the top runners throughout the season including the Paul Short Invitational. Burke has also been to the big meets and has shown a lot of potential for a breakout performance at this meet. Burke was 31 seconds back from Wilkinson a year ago, this year things should be much tighter.
AA: Luke Jones won the championship a year ago as a sophomore over the eventual AA runner up AJ Lomongelli. Jones returns with a very solid set of performances under his belt which have earned him a top 10 ET ranking on the AA side. Jones, now a Junior leads a group of underclassmen who are seeking the individual crown, the top 5 returners from last year's meet are all Juniors this season. Holy Redeemer, always a team to watch, is the defending champions, and although they only return 4 of last year's 7, and 2 of last year's 5, the team still looks poised to return to the state championships. Holy Cross returns a lot from last years 3rd place finish, including a host of talent seniors, but Elk Lake has historically been a power house and surely will not fold easily at this championship meet, especially if Jones brings home a second straight gold out front.
District 3 Championships 10/26
AAA: The top 9 runners from a season ago have graduated, leaving the race wide open for a new face to make a name for himself. That new face looks to be Connor Strynkowski at this point in the season, after a terrific track season last spring, a hot streak of solid races in the past month, including a great run at Gettysburg and a win at Mid Penns. The other top guys from Mid Penns, John Felts, Jeff Groh, and Cole Nissley will also be in the mix for the title at Hershey. Groh and Nissley, both sophomores, have looked much sharper as of late and are starting to show some of the potential they did last season. John Ausel has to be a sleeper in the race, he's the top returner from a year ago. In addition, Adam Katora should not be left out of the Gold medal conversation after a very successful XC season thus far. Evan Williams, Alec Kunzweiler, and Nate Kreider all have also made a splash on the rankings this season, and will be names to remember on race day. In the team battle, it will be another close battle. Hempfield surprised a year ago, but this year the race seems to be between Chambersburg, Lower Dauphin and Governor Mifflin. Lower Dauphin with two strong front runners, Chambersburg and Governor Mifflin with talent packs of runners. Cumberland Valley is also always in the conversation as a team to make states and last year's 5th place finishers Manheim Township also look like they should be heading back to the big dance in November.
AA: The District 3 Champion has went on to win states for 4 straight years now and they look to hold this streak again in 2011. Out front Gruschow and Noll have graduated leaving a race between the talent Anville Celona juniors and Lancaster Mennonite's Jared Schatz. Schatz had a great run at the Lebanon Lancaster League championships and looks poised to ride that momentum into the district championships and take down the gold. The boys from Anville will be racing for more than just individual glory, as they are the defending district champions scoring just 34 points a year ago. They are the favorites this season to defend their title with possible surprises coming from Oley Valley to try and snag the second spot to states.
District 11 Championships 10/27
AA: Brendan Shearn is the name to watch as he is a huge favorite over the rest of the field. He starts his quest to be AA state champ.
AAA: Nate Palmer won his league meet which has to give him confidence going into this race. The Nazareth boys are also feeling good off their championship. As the defending champs Nazareth has to be the favorite to win again this season, but just like last year it should be tight for the first 2 spots to states. Cole Campbell, Tyler Laubach and others will also mix it up for the title in a relatively open field, especially compared to the AA side.
District 12 Championships 10/27
AAA: O'Hara and their squad look to continue their undefeated season and defend their District title, fresh off their convincing PCL win less than a week ago. To turn in two tough efforts on the Belmont course so close to each other will be a challenge, but hopefully one that doesn't take too much out of the legs of these competitors by states. O'Hara should be able to win comfortably, but out front Coyle and Savage should rematch once again in another tight race. LaSalle hopes to take the second team spot, but Chris Muldoon and his squad will also challenge for a trip to states.
District 4 Championships 10/27
AA: Curt Jewett and Sam Williams lead the defending champs Northeast Bradford in a quest to return to states both as individuals and as a team. Jewett is the top returner and has beat Williams at most races this season, but Williams has beat Jewett on the Hershey course their last two meetings. May not be a factor for this District race, but is something to consider come states.
District 7 Championships 10/27
See Gigagantor
AA: LJ Westwood and Nat Fox will look to lead Quaker Valley back to states. Quaker Valley flat out dominated the race a year ago, and has just about all their pieces back to do it again. Westwood is the defending champion, but his shaky midseason results may leave room for upset from Bagamery or Fox.
District 1 Championships 10/28
(Coming Soon)
District 10 Championships 10/29
(Coming Soon)
District 6 Championships 10/29
(Coming Soon)
District 9 Championships 10/29
(Coming Soon)
Top Team Rankings
1. O'Hara
At this point all I can say is Duh. They have to choke to lose at states.
2. Mt. Lebanon
Very nice step in the right direction, great pack running (perhaps saving a little bit for the big meet next weekend), Moran may not be a state title contender at this point, but he is still a great #1, and the pack made a big statement at TSTCA
3. North Allegheny
I have a lot of confidence is this program, they look to be on the rise after a great day at TSTCA especially for Steiner who got a huge win and looks to really be rounding into shape. Unfortunately I just don't see how they can beat Lebo at this stage. Appman can definitely run a bit faster, maybe Bojarski too, but Lebo has the same kind of ifs and buts.
4. WCHenderson
Showed a bit of weakness, Barchet won't be back, Russell was out, Grab didn't run too well. Not a problem against Great Valley, probably won't be a problem against the rest of the D1 teams, but hey, if those problems linger with a young team at the big dance, there will be trouble. On the bright side they still had 5 guys run very well even though half of them no one has ever heard of.
5. North Penn
I could see them taking Districts. Don't think they will, but I could see it. Obviously I've been on their bandwagon for so long that most of my readers are sick of hearing about it, but I think the program works. Trimble looked great at Suburbans and I've always been a Jack MacCauley fan. I think he will be top 5 at districts.
6. Great Valley
Gosh, its tough to put them this high, but they gave Henderson a bit of a run for their money, the Willigs look like they are rounding into shape at the right time, some other runners like Zatlin have made solid improvements, and Lehigh, in theory, favors their strength which means they could surprise some people. Also the other teams around them just weren't doing it for me this weekend.
7. LaSalle
I like Coyle, I like the program, but the pack was just too far back at PCLs, Muldoon and company almost surprised them at the finish. I liked better what I saw at Manhattan, but obviously you can never count this team out.
8. CR North
Continued to do what was expected, well done kids, not much more that I can say.
9. Kiski Area
Without Lednak they looked much, much worse. With him they would have been third almost without a doubt. If he's healthy, this team will make noise this weekend, if not their 4-5 will kill them.
10. Holy Ghost Prep
Yes I am trying to not be biased toward District One but I honestly think these guys look good. Israel out front looks like the real deal, Horgan is no slouch, and Lehigh is usually kind to this squad.
Others worth mentioning:
Chambersburg, Lower Dauphin, Governor Mifflin, Altoona, Central Catholic, Pennsbury, Quaker Valley
At this point all I can say is Duh. They have to choke to lose at states.
2. Mt. Lebanon
Very nice step in the right direction, great pack running (perhaps saving a little bit for the big meet next weekend), Moran may not be a state title contender at this point, but he is still a great #1, and the pack made a big statement at TSTCA
3. North Allegheny
I have a lot of confidence is this program, they look to be on the rise after a great day at TSTCA especially for Steiner who got a huge win and looks to really be rounding into shape. Unfortunately I just don't see how they can beat Lebo at this stage. Appman can definitely run a bit faster, maybe Bojarski too, but Lebo has the same kind of ifs and buts.
4. WCHenderson
Showed a bit of weakness, Barchet won't be back, Russell was out, Grab didn't run too well. Not a problem against Great Valley, probably won't be a problem against the rest of the D1 teams, but hey, if those problems linger with a young team at the big dance, there will be trouble. On the bright side they still had 5 guys run very well even though half of them no one has ever heard of.
5. North Penn
I could see them taking Districts. Don't think they will, but I could see it. Obviously I've been on their bandwagon for so long that most of my readers are sick of hearing about it, but I think the program works. Trimble looked great at Suburbans and I've always been a Jack MacCauley fan. I think he will be top 5 at districts.
6. Great Valley
Gosh, its tough to put them this high, but they gave Henderson a bit of a run for their money, the Willigs look like they are rounding into shape at the right time, some other runners like Zatlin have made solid improvements, and Lehigh, in theory, favors their strength which means they could surprise some people. Also the other teams around them just weren't doing it for me this weekend.
7. LaSalle
I like Coyle, I like the program, but the pack was just too far back at PCLs, Muldoon and company almost surprised them at the finish. I liked better what I saw at Manhattan, but obviously you can never count this team out.
8. CR North
Continued to do what was expected, well done kids, not much more that I can say.
9. Kiski Area
Without Lednak they looked much, much worse. With him they would have been third almost without a doubt. If he's healthy, this team will make noise this weekend, if not their 4-5 will kill them.
10. Holy Ghost Prep
Yes I am trying to not be biased toward District One but I honestly think these guys look good. Israel out front looks like the real deal, Horgan is no slouch, and Lehigh is usually kind to this squad.
Others worth mentioning:
Chambersburg, Lower Dauphin, Governor Mifflin, Altoona, Central Catholic, Pennsbury, Quaker Valley
XC Rankings 10/23
Tough to get this list down to just 50 guys, a lot of great performances from this past week/weekend but only 50 spots I can give out. If you're name isn't on this list it doesn't mean I don't know who you are, or that I don't think you are a potential top 50 guy at states, it just means I had to make a choice and I picked somebody else off gut instinct. A lot of guys I really like to make great strides in the coming weeks, but only time will tell. Here's what I got:
1. Dustin Wilson
2. Drew Magaha
3. Logan Steiner
4. Dan Jaskowak
5. Sam Hibbs
6. Bredan Shearn
7. Conner Quinn
8. Max Norris
9. Dylan Mountain
10. Aaron Wilkinson
11. Alex Moran
12. Brent Kennedy
13. Connor Strynkowski
14. Mike Runco
15. Ned Willig
16. Barrett Kemp
17. Tom Coyle
18. Sean Burke
19. Korey Replogle
20. Jack MacCauley
21. Dan Savage
22. Curt Jewett
23. Connor Harriman
24. Sam Williams
25. Andrew Kutcha
26. Ryan Smathers
27. Luke Jones
28. Ean DiSilivio
29. Brett Kelly
30. Zach Israel
31. Mac Emery
32. Dan Davis
33. Luke Schott
34. LJ Westwood
35. Sam Haugh
36. Francis Ferruzzi
37. Ethan Martin
38. Caleb Wakeley
39. Jeff Groh
40. Chris Trimble
41. Adam Katora
42. John Felts
43. Jack Huemmler
44. Jared Schatz
45. Tony Russell
46. Charlie Grab
47. Mike Billotta
48. Harrison Schettler
49. Pete Downs
50. Chris Pastore
1. Dustin Wilson
2. Drew Magaha
3. Logan Steiner
4. Dan Jaskowak
5. Sam Hibbs
6. Bredan Shearn
7. Conner Quinn
8. Max Norris
9. Dylan Mountain
10. Aaron Wilkinson
11. Alex Moran
12. Brent Kennedy
13. Connor Strynkowski
14. Mike Runco
15. Ned Willig
16. Barrett Kemp
17. Tom Coyle
18. Sean Burke
19. Korey Replogle
20. Jack MacCauley
21. Dan Savage
22. Curt Jewett
23. Connor Harriman
24. Sam Williams
25. Andrew Kutcha
26. Ryan Smathers
27. Luke Jones
28. Ean DiSilivio
29. Brett Kelly
30. Zach Israel
31. Mac Emery
32. Dan Davis
33. Luke Schott
34. LJ Westwood
35. Sam Haugh
36. Francis Ferruzzi
37. Ethan Martin
38. Caleb Wakeley
39. Jeff Groh
40. Chris Trimble
41. Adam Katora
42. John Felts
43. Jack Huemmler
44. Jared Schatz
45. Tony Russell
46. Charlie Grab
47. Mike Billotta
48. Harrison Schettler
49. Pete Downs
50. Chris Pastore
WPIAL AAA Preview
This week's WPIAL District 7 Championship Preview is comes courtesy of one of etrain's special western correspondents: Gigantor. Hope you enjoy.
District 7(WPIAL) Preview
AAA: After graduating the top four finishers from last year, and seven of the top 10, the boys WPIAL race will be open for new up and comers. The top returners from last year are: Logan Steiner (5th, 15:54), Bobby Bishop(6th, 16:02), Alex Moran (8th, 16:07), and Andrew Kuchta (11th, 16:25, [9:16 in Track]). While these four were expected to dominate the competition this year, they have not. Bishop is MIA, while Moran and Kuchta haven’t run up to expectations since the Red, White and Blue Invitational at beginning of the season (Where they were 2nd and 3rd respectively). Steiner hadn’t been ‘on’ either, running poorly at Carlisle, and Boardman, before laying down a strong move only 1k in to the race at the Tri-State meet this past week at a sloppy Coopers Lake and holding on for the victory. In addition to the top returners from last year, two more guys have forced themselves into the picture for the WPIAL crown: Mike Runco (Central Catholic), and Brent Kennedy (Kiski Area). Kennedy, only a sophomore, ditched soccer (which he played last year and his brother, Ryan, for all four years) to concentrate solely on XC, after a 4:26 freshman 1600m. The results have been phenomenal as Brent placed 2nd to Kuchta at the brutal Gateway invitational (beating third place Ethan Martin by nearly a minute), 6th at the RWB Invite in 15:51, winning the Westmoreland County Championships, and placing 3rd at recent TSTCA meet. The sophomore has clearly made himself one a major contender heading into this week. The other newcomer vying for the crown is Central Catholic senior, Mike Runco. After running only four races in track- a WPIAL Qualifier qualifying time, the WPIAL Qualifier 1600m, the WPIAL Championships 1600m (3rd, 4:25), and the State Championships Prelims (4:24)- Runco ran a 15:57 PR at the RWB invitational, good for 8th place. He followed tat up with an impressive third at Carlsisle (16:10), a runner-up at the Central Catholic Invitational Mudfest (16:39), and 5th at the almost-as-bad-as-Central TSTCA meet.
Predictions:
The race will undoubtedly be another great race at the front, and a good bit depends on how the race unfolds. Steiner can throw in some great surges, especially at Coopers Lake, if he does this(and he has every time he has raced at Coopers for NA), Moran, Runco, and Kennedy will have a decision to make- whether or not to go with Steiner. One thing is for sure, they cannot let him build as big of a gap as he did at the TSTCA meet. Both Moran and Kennedy both have great leg speed, and Steiner has a great kick as well. If the race comes down to a kick any of the three could win. But most of the time in XC its not who’s the fastest and if Runco is fresher after the snaking last kilometer, he has a great shot as well (remember Runco and Grade-School teammate Ean DiSilvio ran away from Moran late at the Central Catholic Invite- though rumor has it Moran fell around 2 miles). The whether is not to be ignored either. After the TSTCA meet, the Coopers Lake course is in extremely poor conditions. Whether or not the course will recover in time is up in the air. Another possibility is moving he course a couple of meters to the left or right (and adjusting other parts of the course), as they did in 2006. The condition of the course could be a factor as Moran’s great rhythm and cadence is hurt by the slipping and sliding, he hasn’t run well on the mud yet this year (Remember Lucas Zarzeczny’s Coach saying “You can’t run a Ferrari in the mud”, while is applies a bit to Moran as well). A sloppy course would seem to favor both Runco and Steiner, while hurting Moran(even Coach A. admits it in his post- TSTCA interview). Also stacked against Moran is Lebo’s disappointing races at Coopers Lake. Two years ago, Rad Gunzenhauser beat Ryan Gil in every race besides two- both at Coopers Lake. And last year Moran was 8th at the WPIAL Championships before placing 14th at State’s right behing WPIAL 5th place finisher, Logan Steiner, and beating Bobby Bishop and Bobby Gasior, 6th and 7th at the WPIAL meet. Unlike Moran, Steiner has run well at Coopers Lake. Of the newcomers, Runco was 24th at the WPIAL Championships last season (his only health WPIAL meet), while Brent Kennedy has never run a WPIAL Championship at XC. With all of this in mind, my predictions:
1. Kennedy
2. Runco
3. Steiner
4. Moran
5. Wakeley
In many ways, the top 4, especially the top three will be very close, too hard to tell, so my predictions do not mean much. My choice to include Wakeley in the top 5 is as follows- he was 8th at TSTCA’s in his first invite all season. He should get some improvement just by racing again.
Others to Watch: E. Martin (Fox Chapel), Schott (Franklin Regional), Faye (Hempfield), Tellin (Mt. Lebo), Tramaglini (Mt. Lebo), Culley (Moon), Kuchta (Baldwin), Haky (Central Catholic), T. Appman (North Allegheny), Boccabella (Norwin)
Team Race:
NA v. Lebo
After winning how many straight WPIAL Championships (six?), the defending State champions, NA, are again in the mix for the WPIAL Team Championship. NA has won every team Championships at Coopers Lake despite being challenged many times, most recently by Baldwin. This year, however, Mount Lebanon is the favorite. Lebo only beat NA by 14 at the TSTCA meet this past week, so the team title is still up in the air. Lebo had a very strong pack (2-6) that ran together until after the half-way point, before breaking up. Rumors are swirling that Lebo may have held back the slightest bit(as you will see later, this is not that uncommon at this meet). NA can exspect some improvement as well from Tyler Nicotra, who normally NA’s #3, but was their 5 at TSTCA’s. Tyler got out very poorly and had trouble moving up. NA will surely want to continue their streak, while Lebo needs to capitize on a rare chance to beat NA at Coopers.
Battle for the 3rd and 4th
Always one of the most dramatic parts of the WPIAL Championship is who will take the last spots to the State meet. While many teams fighting for the last two spots, Central catholic, Kiski Area, Pine-Richland, Fox Chapel, and Hampton are the teams most likely to take the coveted last two spots. All of these teams were very close at the TSTCA meet (all teams were between Central’s 252 and Fox Chapel’s 317), so it appears to be very close. Upon further inspection, many teams had key runners missing (due to illness, injury, or just resting it is unknown). Fox Chapel was missing their 2nd runner, Collin Martin, while Kiski was missing their 2nd (Richard Lednak), and Central Catholic their 3rd (Brian Bollens). It is also important to note that Pine-Richland’s 6th runner at TSTCA was Tom Reinhart, who had run 16:40’s before his injury (it was his first race back). I believe that this will separate Kiski, Central Catholic, Fox Chapel, and maybe Pine Richland from Hampton, but the team finish will still be close. With Lednak in Kiski figures to lose around 100 points, dropping them to around 210, while Central will lose roughly 75 with the addition of Bollens, dropping them to 175. Fox Chapel will also lose roughly 75 points, dropping them to 240. Pine-Richland presumable drop is unquantifiable, but could be important as well. This would leave Central in the third spot and Kiski 4th, with Fox Chapel close behind them. Of course, this assumes the three missing runners will be healthy by next week- without them each team (but especially Kiski), would suffer a nearly fatal blow. Kiski’s problem is their lack of a 5th man, so if they can get one to step up they could turn some heads. Central Catholic, meanwhile, holds down their 4 and 5 spots with two freshmen, Jeff Van Kooten and Pat Curley. Having two freshmen scoring could prove to be an issue. Both Central Catholic and Fox Chapel have strong 1-2-3 punches with weaker 4-5’s while Hampton an Pine-Richland have great packs. With all of this it is prediction time:
1. Mount Lebanon
2. North Allegheny
3. Central Catholic
4. Kiski Area
5. Fox Chapel
As said before the predictions for 3rd, 4th and 5th have assume those teams runners will return next week. If one of them does not, or isnt health when they do, their team will most likely suffer.
-Gigantor
District 7(WPIAL) Preview
AAA: After graduating the top four finishers from last year, and seven of the top 10, the boys WPIAL race will be open for new up and comers. The top returners from last year are: Logan Steiner (5th, 15:54), Bobby Bishop(6th, 16:02), Alex Moran (8th, 16:07), and Andrew Kuchta (11th, 16:25, [9:16 in Track]). While these four were expected to dominate the competition this year, they have not. Bishop is MIA, while Moran and Kuchta haven’t run up to expectations since the Red, White and Blue Invitational at beginning of the season (Where they were 2nd and 3rd respectively). Steiner hadn’t been ‘on’ either, running poorly at Carlisle, and Boardman, before laying down a strong move only 1k in to the race at the Tri-State meet this past week at a sloppy Coopers Lake and holding on for the victory. In addition to the top returners from last year, two more guys have forced themselves into the picture for the WPIAL crown: Mike Runco (Central Catholic), and Brent Kennedy (Kiski Area). Kennedy, only a sophomore, ditched soccer (which he played last year and his brother, Ryan, for all four years) to concentrate solely on XC, after a 4:26 freshman 1600m. The results have been phenomenal as Brent placed 2nd to Kuchta at the brutal Gateway invitational (beating third place Ethan Martin by nearly a minute), 6th at the RWB Invite in 15:51, winning the Westmoreland County Championships, and placing 3rd at recent TSTCA meet. The sophomore has clearly made himself one a major contender heading into this week. The other newcomer vying for the crown is Central Catholic senior, Mike Runco. After running only four races in track- a WPIAL Qualifier qualifying time, the WPIAL Qualifier 1600m, the WPIAL Championships 1600m (3rd, 4:25), and the State Championships Prelims (4:24)- Runco ran a 15:57 PR at the RWB invitational, good for 8th place. He followed tat up with an impressive third at Carlsisle (16:10), a runner-up at the Central Catholic Invitational Mudfest (16:39), and 5th at the almost-as-bad-as-Central TSTCA meet.
Predictions:
The race will undoubtedly be another great race at the front, and a good bit depends on how the race unfolds. Steiner can throw in some great surges, especially at Coopers Lake, if he does this(and he has every time he has raced at Coopers for NA), Moran, Runco, and Kennedy will have a decision to make- whether or not to go with Steiner. One thing is for sure, they cannot let him build as big of a gap as he did at the TSTCA meet. Both Moran and Kennedy both have great leg speed, and Steiner has a great kick as well. If the race comes down to a kick any of the three could win. But most of the time in XC its not who’s the fastest and if Runco is fresher after the snaking last kilometer, he has a great shot as well (remember Runco and Grade-School teammate Ean DiSilvio ran away from Moran late at the Central Catholic Invite- though rumor has it Moran fell around 2 miles). The whether is not to be ignored either. After the TSTCA meet, the Coopers Lake course is in extremely poor conditions. Whether or not the course will recover in time is up in the air. Another possibility is moving he course a couple of meters to the left or right (and adjusting other parts of the course), as they did in 2006. The condition of the course could be a factor as Moran’s great rhythm and cadence is hurt by the slipping and sliding, he hasn’t run well on the mud yet this year (Remember Lucas Zarzeczny’s Coach saying “You can’t run a Ferrari in the mud”, while is applies a bit to Moran as well). A sloppy course would seem to favor both Runco and Steiner, while hurting Moran(even Coach A. admits it in his post- TSTCA interview). Also stacked against Moran is Lebo’s disappointing races at Coopers Lake. Two years ago, Rad Gunzenhauser beat Ryan Gil in every race besides two- both at Coopers Lake. And last year Moran was 8th at the WPIAL Championships before placing 14th at State’s right behing WPIAL 5th place finisher, Logan Steiner, and beating Bobby Bishop and Bobby Gasior, 6th and 7th at the WPIAL meet. Unlike Moran, Steiner has run well at Coopers Lake. Of the newcomers, Runco was 24th at the WPIAL Championships last season (his only health WPIAL meet), while Brent Kennedy has never run a WPIAL Championship at XC. With all of this in mind, my predictions:
1. Kennedy
2. Runco
3. Steiner
4. Moran
5. Wakeley
In many ways, the top 4, especially the top three will be very close, too hard to tell, so my predictions do not mean much. My choice to include Wakeley in the top 5 is as follows- he was 8th at TSTCA’s in his first invite all season. He should get some improvement just by racing again.
Others to Watch: E. Martin (Fox Chapel), Schott (Franklin Regional), Faye (Hempfield), Tellin (Mt. Lebo), Tramaglini (Mt. Lebo), Culley (Moon), Kuchta (Baldwin), Haky (Central Catholic), T. Appman (North Allegheny), Boccabella (Norwin)
Team Race:
NA v. Lebo
After winning how many straight WPIAL Championships (six?), the defending State champions, NA, are again in the mix for the WPIAL Team Championship. NA has won every team Championships at Coopers Lake despite being challenged many times, most recently by Baldwin. This year, however, Mount Lebanon is the favorite. Lebo only beat NA by 14 at the TSTCA meet this past week, so the team title is still up in the air. Lebo had a very strong pack (2-6) that ran together until after the half-way point, before breaking up. Rumors are swirling that Lebo may have held back the slightest bit(as you will see later, this is not that uncommon at this meet). NA can exspect some improvement as well from Tyler Nicotra, who normally NA’s #3, but was their 5 at TSTCA’s. Tyler got out very poorly and had trouble moving up. NA will surely want to continue their streak, while Lebo needs to capitize on a rare chance to beat NA at Coopers.
Battle for the 3rd and 4th
Always one of the most dramatic parts of the WPIAL Championship is who will take the last spots to the State meet. While many teams fighting for the last two spots, Central catholic, Kiski Area, Pine-Richland, Fox Chapel, and Hampton are the teams most likely to take the coveted last two spots. All of these teams were very close at the TSTCA meet (all teams were between Central’s 252 and Fox Chapel’s 317), so it appears to be very close. Upon further inspection, many teams had key runners missing (due to illness, injury, or just resting it is unknown). Fox Chapel was missing their 2nd runner, Collin Martin, while Kiski was missing their 2nd (Richard Lednak), and Central Catholic their 3rd (Brian Bollens). It is also important to note that Pine-Richland’s 6th runner at TSTCA was Tom Reinhart, who had run 16:40’s before his injury (it was his first race back). I believe that this will separate Kiski, Central Catholic, Fox Chapel, and maybe Pine Richland from Hampton, but the team finish will still be close. With Lednak in Kiski figures to lose around 100 points, dropping them to around 210, while Central will lose roughly 75 with the addition of Bollens, dropping them to 175. Fox Chapel will also lose roughly 75 points, dropping them to 240. Pine-Richland presumable drop is unquantifiable, but could be important as well. This would leave Central in the third spot and Kiski 4th, with Fox Chapel close behind them. Of course, this assumes the three missing runners will be healthy by next week- without them each team (but especially Kiski), would suffer a nearly fatal blow. Kiski’s problem is their lack of a 5th man, so if they can get one to step up they could turn some heads. Central Catholic, meanwhile, holds down their 4 and 5 spots with two freshmen, Jeff Van Kooten and Pat Curley. Having two freshmen scoring could prove to be an issue. Both Central Catholic and Fox Chapel have strong 1-2-3 punches with weaker 4-5’s while Hampton an Pine-Richland have great packs. With all of this it is prediction time:
1. Mount Lebanon
2. North Allegheny
3. Central Catholic
4. Kiski Area
5. Fox Chapel
As said before the predictions for 3rd, 4th and 5th have assume those teams runners will return next week. If one of them does not, or isnt health when they do, their team will most likely suffer.
-Gigantor
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