Sorry for the lack of preview here folks I've been sick for the last few days to the point where I couldn't get out of bed. I'm still sick but I can get out of bed so I guess that is good enough health to go blog.
First off looking at these 4x8s I was surprised to see GFS run the 4x8 over the DMR. They would have been able to get in on time, their 10:21 or whatever they ran in Virginia was faster than both Pennsbury and Henderson unless I am mistaken. Their 4x8 squad could potential surprise with a fast time, but they are made up of a couple 2 mile guys in Wistar and Aziz so it will be interesting to see how they run in a speed relay such as this. Cheltenham and Upper Merion are also in the first heat. I can' t see either of these teams running all that fast but they both have great anchors in John Lewis and Christian Sanders. In the Penn environment with people to chase one of these guys could drop into the 1:53-1:52 range for an outdoor season best. Sam Ellison split a 1:52 on our squad way back when. In the other small school heat you always have to keep Penncrest in mind. They are consistently solid in the 4x8. However, I don't think they have shown enough fire power to get through to the COA.
I'm super excited to watch Bensalem face off with CValley in the first large school heat. Right now I'm riding the CV bandwagon, I think Bensalem is going to peak at the right time like they did indoors, but their focus is clearly states (not that CVs isn't). CV has run a boat load of 4x8s as of late and their guys are rolling with confidence. I think if Bensalem is ready to go both teams will make it through to the COA, however, CV is my pick for the most likely team to qualify. CB East, as has been mentioned, is a great sleeper pick here. I don't see them having enough fire power to run 7:50 and get to the finals but they could drop a nice 7:55. I'll be interested to see Caldwell's split as well for DT East.
In the final heat, Pennsbury is listed as a school competing? Odd and I think not accurate, but if Penn has changed their rules, it will be interesting to see how Pennsbury runs the 4x8. They have some nice pieces and of course could sneak into the championship with a low 7:50s mark. I think it is more likely they are running the DM, however, and this is just a type-o. State College is in this heat and they have the potential to really roll. They have a lot of nice pieces but I think they are a year away. They will go up this year, gain some valuable experience and maybe get close this year, but next year will be their big year. I could be really wrong here and I hope I am but I think these guys will have their big race this year at outdoor states. St. Joe's is an interesting team, I don't think they are going to run anything mind-boggling, but maybe down around 8 flat.
Should be fun.
Ultimately I got
CV
Bensalem
SC
Penncrest
CB East
DT East
for my top 6, after that who knows ...
Actually, Pennsbury is running the 4x8, not the DMR
ReplyDeleteYup, Harriman is running the Open Mile now and they're running the 4x8 instead of the DMR, interesting choice by them, since I thought Harriman could drop a lot of time in the 1200 (he was like 3:11ish at Nats).
ReplyDelete--ForrestCRN
what time usually gets you to coa
ReplyDeletewhat time in the past gets you to coa
ReplyDeleteI know this is the 4x800 preview, but I missed commenting DMR….sorry. The weather looks to be perfect so there’s a great chance of some impressive DMR times tomorrow. Predicting those times is tough because it’s difficult to gauge where everybody is at this point of the season. That said, it’s fun to do it anyway so here are my predictions.
ReplyDeleteCouncil Rock and Strath Haven – I’m really not sure what most of their runners have been up to, but in a fast race with good weather, both teams could get under 10:20, though I give the edge to Haven based on Huemmler’s recent 4:12 at the Warrior.
Either of O’hara, LaSalle or Henderson could win it if everyone is on and someone drops a big PR. But my best guess in reverse order is:
Ohara – I’ve underestimated these guys many times already, so what’s one more, right? I never saw that 10:13 DMR coming from them but I’m not sure they can go much better. If they’re all in top shape now the best I can predict out of them is 10:09, which ain’t too shabby. More likely, I’m thinking 10:11-12ish, but hope I’m proved wrong again.
LaSalle – Another tough one to predict. Coyle/Stone are getting back to top form as shown with recent impressive open 800 times, but still a bit off of their PR’s. Coyle still hasn’t dropped a big 1600 yet, though that’s not to say he won’t here. With everyone clicking I could see a 10:07-08 out of LaSalle. If Coyle is back in 4:11 state champ shape, with his kick and if chasing down a victory, 10:05 is not out of the question.
Henderson – These guys are fresh off the Warrior meet last week, so it’s a little easier to see what shape they’re in. Losing Chaborek hurts them, however because this is Henderson, they always seem to have another guy and Moy has stepped up big time. Assuming the lineup is Barchet, Hall, Moy & Russell, I think these guys can go 10:05. Barchet should be a solid leadoff, towards the front pack. Hall is a quality 400 leg, Moy is riding a wave of PR’s and confidence. Then Russell on the anchor is as good as any of the contenders not named Cheserek and he seems to be at his best in relays when chasing down leaders, so this race might set up nicely for him.
Great weather and great competition. Assuming the last leg doesn’t go overly tactical, there should be some impressive times and hopefully an exciting finish with a PA DMR champion.
-RJJL
O'Hara could go 10:05 too.
Deletei wanna say getting into the COA usually takes like 7:52ish sometimes over sometimes under but on average 7:52-54 i'd say
ReplyDeleteGalassi-9:10 for 3200.
ReplyDelete