More Districts!

I'm back home folks and I have punched my metaphorical ticket to the district one championships on friday. See some of you homies then.

Wow I can't believe I just said homies, let's pretend that didn't happen and get to the district preview work.

Also to whoever said they could get updates I'd love them if you are willing to post them up.

I'm going to make this post a preview for the following three districts:
District 7
District 3
District 1

I'm sorry for the limited amount of coverage, I know that's lame but I just don't have the time to put together more than this at the moment. I'm also trying to keep my posts relatively small and readable.

 If you would like me to do another district, I encourage you to comment on here and I will see what I can do time permitting. D12 should be good but it is mostly just PCL squads and D11 and D6 should provide a few sleeper picks in the AAA races and D4 and D11 should provide a lot of studs in the AA race.

But on to the glory districts.

District 7
Favorites (in no particluar order)
800m: James Smith, Billy Dougherty, Ryan Lee, Dylan Wilhoite, Tyler Palenchak, Patrick Miller, Mike Becich, Mike Mizzanti, Chris Culley, Brett Foster, Thomas Reinhardt

There are a lot of wild cards in this race for sure. The WPIAL always manages to churn out a few solid 800m guys and had the surprise state champ a year ago in Wil Bailey. I don't think this district has any legit state title hopefuls but I do believe that one or two state meet finalists will reprsent District 7. Dylan Wilhoite has got to be one of the favorites to do that. He has run some solid marks in the low 1:56s and I think he could drop to 1:54-1:55 in the coming weeks. He runs for Penn Hills who has had some pretty good guys in the past like that state champ Wil Bailey. I also really like Mike Becich. Maybe it is the NA jersey he is wearing but the guy has got some talent. Vinny Tonzo from NA was one of the big guns of the race a year ago. Should be another Penn Hills v. NA race out front. Gotta watch out for Chris Culley who ran 1:56 a year ago and made states (if he is doubling I'm not sure he will run quite as fast but we will see) and James Smith who has run in the 1:56s this year. Some wildcard will likely step up and snag the SQS but it will be tight for sure.

1600m: Jonathan Weese, Tyler Snider, Tyler Palenchak, Nate Edenfield, Luke Schott, Ethan Martin, Nathan Sloan, Thomas Reinhardt, Colin Martin, Scott Slaney, Anton Martinez

It's hard to say who is going to get the 4 auto-spots in my mind. Ethan Martin should be able to coast and win this race in my personal opinion. He is certainly the most talented guy in terms of PRs and big wins and this sport is about momentum, which he has a lot of. I do like Nathan Sloan from Hampton though, he could mix it up well here and should make states. I go back and forth on Colin. He hasn't shown quite as much promise in the 16 as his brother has but he has plenty of talent and all he needs to do is run 4:22ish and he should get 3rd, I'm not seeing a lot of depth in this race. Edenfield and Schott are two possible sleepers in this race and even Anton Martinez and Scott Slaney could do slip in there. I definitely expect Thomas Reinhardt to get to states, he should be under 4:24 and is likely a top 4 guy most days in this race.

3200m: Seamus Roddy, Patrick Quirk, Jared Pollock, Brent Kennedy, Jon Faye, Ethan Martin, Colin Martin, Brian Shields, Caleb Wakeley, Josh Zemet, Matt McGoey, Cordon Luoco

Wow! This I expect to be the race of the day without a doubt, perhaps the race of the weekend. Kennedy will be relatively fresh when he toes off with Ethan Martin in a showdown of two outstanding juniors. Both guys could push each other under 9:10 and drag a lot of guys with them. I'm a huge Kennedy fan and I think he is starting to get healthy and that is bad news for a doubling Martin, but I have seen great stuff from Martin this year and I'm picking Ethan to take down the win and a pair of golds. Kennedy may get him back come states, but I haven't decided. Both guys are straight studs.

Behind these two is the guy who often gets overlooked, Colin Martin who has been consistently solid and has dropped a lot of time throughout the year. Unlike Ethan, Colin has had more of a tendency to start slow and drop a lot of time as the season progresses. He has struggled to beat Ethan, but maybe this is the race? If both guys are doubling I'm not sure what to expect, but I'm banking on a big 1600m Pr for Colin which sets him back a bit in this race. He will still get to states in my mind just won't be up with the other two competing for victory.

This may be the race that Matt McGoey surprises some people. I think he could beat Colin in this race for sure and dip under 9:20. He and Zemet have a great shot at qualifying for states. As mentioned Brain Shields is a very talented runner. He should get a nice PR at districts and I think he could be a big, big sleeper at outdoor states as he continues to build confidence and momentum. Jon Faye is a nice sleeper here, he has solid marks in the past including a trip to states last year. Who knows what you will get out of the Lebo guys? But there is always talent there, maybe a sleeper sneaks in a fast time outta that school.

4x800m: NA, Seneca Valley, Kiski, Norwin, Gateway, Canon-Mac
This race seems fairly one sided in my mind. Kiski, if they put their A team on the track, should dominate this race. This team is still waiting to showcase their true talent. Basically this same crew ran 7:50 last year and I think they can go even faster this year with the pieces they have, but that won't be til states. I like Gateway's pieces a lot. Big sleeper here for a sub 8 minute mark and an outside chance at competing to qualify for the finals at states. NA is unpredictable here but with their A team they should get to states no problem. But I don't know if they will put out the A team. Norwin is solid as well, they  hung tough with Kiski last week.

District 3
Performance List: http://piaadistrict3.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/2013-TRACK-B-AAA-SEEDS1.pdf
3200m
Gosh what a toss up of guys here. Obviously out front this is a 3 man race. Groh has been fantastic since indoors but Todaro has gotta be the favorite here with his terrific 9:15 mark. Todaro is just starting to get healthy and round into top shape after a breakout XC season. I am betting on Vinny here. Jeff should take down second and Nissley should be third, but I say that with a bit less confidence. Nissley is very good but a little bit more unpredictable than Groh who is a super talent.

This still leaves 2 free spots to states even without time. The group chasing it will include Gebhardt, Martin, Savaegeau, Reilly, Bitner, Corcoran, Brehm, Coburn, Hamilton, Conrad-Kline, and Demko. Now I don't expect all those guys to run it but they are all qualifiers. I'd scratch out Brehm and Coburn at least and maybe the Hershey guys as well. For me Gebhardt has been waiting for a chance like this to break out if he can rise to the occassion. Savagaeu is very good even though I can't spell his name, I also like Conrad-Kline. But Corcoran for me is the guy here. He should get one of the 5 auto spots to states and maybe will surpise with a sub 9:30 again. That's his PR. I don't see more than 5 guys making it outta d3 in this event.

1600m
This event is a bit trickier to predict who will run than the 32. In my mind I see Kunzweiler as the only sure fire pull out of the group. Brehm is second most likely for me, I don't think it is wise for him to try the 4x8, 16 and open 8 but he without a doubt could make states in all 3. But I think Brehm is 1:52 kind of talent in the 800m if he runs it fresh at states. If he ends up fresh in that race, he would be my sleeper pick for the title. It's early, but we have yet to see his best work.

But to the actual race. I expect to see the 3200m guys back for a shot at the spot even though I am not sure Todaro would run both at states. This race is very deep with guys like Schettler, Groh, Todaro, Coburn, Sankey, Brehm, Mueller, Conrad-Kline, Nissley, and Corcoran all under the SQS. I'd love to make a bold statement here and pick a winner, but it is hard for me to say at this point because it is unclear who will be doubling where. I like Todaro if he is feeling good after the 32 to take the win, but Sankey and Mueller are sleeper picks for a big time drop and a win. If Brehm is in the race fresh he is my pick but I'm thinking he goes 4x8 before hand. Schettler is very talented as well, but I'm worried about him doubling back from the 4x8 as well so I'm not sure he can take down the gold here. If he's fresh he will compete and maybe surprise for the win.

800m
The 800m should be very exciting and the guy to watch is Alec Kunzweiler. He in my mind has been severely overlooked by this blog as of late (myself included) and has not gotten his due for running fantastically over the past few weeks. He dropped a 1:54 low in rough, rough weather recently and has perfectly executed the 4x8-8 double countless times. I was a little worried about him at the beginning of outdoors but he has come on strong since. His indoor season was fantastic considering his previous indoor season before his 1:51 was 1:57high ish and no state medals. The guy will be peaking at the right time and has to be the favorite to drop a pair of 1:51s come states. He should handle this field this weekend.

Brehm is the name to watch down the line. Just a sophomore, Brehm is very talented at 800m, I expect him to be #2 here. Like I said, he could surprise if fresh at states. A guy who is doubling at states always has a shot at blowing up and if that happens to someone like Alec then Brehm can certainly step in and steal a win.

Caleb Gatchell is certainly a name worth noting in this race. We will see how he handles the double from the 4x8, but I think he has enough time to show off his talents in this race and surprise some people. Coburn is also a talent here if he doesn't run the 16 and instead goes 800 he will compete here. Again, I only see 5 guys qualifying for states out of this event.

4x800m
The 4x8 at District 3 is always one of the biggest surprises for me. Cedar Crest, McCaskey, Chambersburg and CV are just some of the teams over the past few years that have dropped huge times at this meet. CV should be able to cruise to victory. They are clearly the best team in this field. But behind them the race is very interesting. Carlisle has Brehm anchoring and some solid pieces all around. Then Red Lion has Caleb Gatchell and a few other underrated guys fighting to prove themselves. Penn Manor, led by the 4:18 man Schettler, have a slew of sub 2 guys that shouldn't be overlooked as well. I really like this Penn Manor team and have been talking them up for a bit on here.

But there is also Central Dauphin and new surprise Cedar Crest who dropped an 8 flat mark already this year. Hershey was an XC surprise this year and could be a 4x8 surprise at this meet with some talented guys on the roster. This race could be historic in terms of depth and sub 8 teams. I can't wait to see how this unfolds with the slew of talent across the board in this event, all the teams are separated by only a few seconds here or there.

I just hope CV stays out of trouble and doesn't get hit and fall or drop the baton or anything in this competitive race. I still think they gotta consider changing up the order to work Coburn into the 2nd spot for states.

District One
This meet will be tough to predict who runs what but I'll give it my best shot.
4x800
Here are my predictions for the 12 teams that will make finals:
Bensalem, Pennsbury, Cheltenham, Pennridge, CB East, CB South, DT East, Perk Valley, North Penn, Penncrest, Upper Darby, Downingtown West

Close: West Chester East, Upper Dublin, Abington, Radnor?, Penn Wood? (will they run hot?)

I predict that Henderson, Methacton, CRN, DTWest, Upper Merion, Strath Haven and Great Valley among others will not put their A team on the track in the event.

Plenty of room for changing here however. I feel that if every single team in D1 put their best possible relay on the track we could have roughly 24 teams under the SQS. It's just not fair. To make finals it is going to take close to 8 flat it seems. Now things could get a little easier if teams like Pennsbury and Pennridge who I have making it in pull out their top guns in favor of individuals. But teams like Henderson and Methacton could easily complicate matters by throwing their A team in. Abington is another team that could jump in the mix as a sleeper pick.

Pennsbury is just so difficult to call here. They have individual potential for sure. I really like their relay as well. Webb and Harriman gotta be thinking 32 or maybe 16 and either of those events are tough to qualify for with a hard 4x8 thrown in there. Very tough to guess where they will be.

In the finals, I see Bensalem running away with this one, they should be able to coast a bit to a win which will help. But Pennridge could surprise if Logue is going all out and chasing when he gets the baton. Pennsbury is a solid team, but I think Cheltenham is also very dangerous with Jon Lewis on the squad. Ultimately all these teams are solid, somewhere around 7:55ish potential, but it will be a matter of who rises to the occassion and breaks free. Very few teams have more than one stud on their roster for this relay which complicates things. I like DT East here as a sleeper, I'm a Caldwell fan and I think this team has been growing well throughout the season.

My 8 teams headed to states (I do believe it will be 8 in all the distance events) in no particular order:
Bensalem, Pennsbury, Pennridge, Penncrest, DT East, CB East, CB South, Upper Darby

1600m
Here are my predicted 12 finalists:
Huemmler, Francis, Zingarini, Stratman, Kardish, Scarpato, Pearlman, Leidal, Harriman, Ferruzzi, Hanson, Hare

It's tricky to predict this event because it's hard to guess who is running the 4x8 and who is not and then on top of that who is pulling out of the race. I think Russell, Wilson, Logue, Webb, Moy and Rivera among others are pulling out of this event which leave things quite wide open. Again things are tricky because I am trying to guess quite a lot of factors here, but this is a very tentative guess.

In the finals I have to think Huemmler will destroy the field if he is healthy but I haven't seen much of him lately so there are no guarentees that will be the case. If he is not at 100% and Ken Leidal is running a fresh race and no 4x8 the guy may be quite the sleeper pick in this race. Harriman too with fresh legs is dangerous. Zingarini has had a bit of a rough patch but he has the talent to win this race, he has yet to win the big win in his career, maybe this is his time. A lot of guys with potential to break out. Francis I think will be too tired to really compete hard up front but he should get into states. Kardish is a big sleeper here as well. He has run some great times over the years and he could be 4:16ish this meet. Pearlman, the sophomore, is a sleeper here as well for a roughly 4:20 flat time. Curtis Watro, if fresh, could get in the finals and compete well. Also gotta look for the WCE guys if they are fresh: Crump and Diestelow.

My 8 guys headed to states (very tricky here with all the doubling in place) again no particular order:
Huemmler, Francis, Zingarini, Leidal, Kadish, Stratman, Pearlman, Harriman

800m
Here are my predicted 12 finalists:
Wiseman, Logue, Moy, Caldwell, Rivera, Garton, Hunter, Yannacone, Sanders, Lewis, Huemmler, Holm

There are lots of guys in this race who could surprise and jump inside my top 12, but these are my tentative picks here. In the finals, I like Wiseman to run away from this field and dominate. If Sanders and Huemmler too are healthy they could both be in the mix for the title. Joe Logue, if he does not run the 4x8 all out, will challenge for the win as well. I would love to see Rivera, Logue, Wiseman and Sanders all reunite as the top 4 guys from indoor states could push each other to something impressive. I think it will be Wiseman who takes down the victory out of this group this time around, but Logue should give him all he can handle. Rivera will have to be doubling but I expect him to round out the top 3 despite the tough double that he will almost certainly have. Moy is very dangerous if he is not running the 4x8. He has been a roll as of late. Christian Hunter and Steve Yannacone are the big sleepers of this group. Both almost definitely will be fresh and both have run solid marks with potential to drop. Yannacone is the defending champ which you can't forget.

Ultimately this race should take mid 1:55s to make states at least and I think, assuming all parties are healthy the top 8 are:
Wiseman, Logue, Moy, Rivera, Sanders, Huemmler, Hunter, Caldwell

3200m
Well by this point of writing I am quite perplexed about who is running where but here is what I think.
A fresh Norris, Russell, Barchet and Wilson will control this race, but Conner Quinn should also be up in the mix. If Pennsbury really goes 4x8 I can't imagine seeing Harriman and maybe Webb but they have another guy they could sub for Webb and let him run this race.

Norris should put things on cruise control, knowing next week is the big week, but the pack won't let him just jog along. There are a lot of talented guys in this race that will need to keep it honest so they can take their shot at getting to states. Here is the group I expect to be in the mix (assuming Macauley and Emery scratch from injury/sickness)
Russell, Wilson, Barchet, Webb, Quinn, Bodine, Collins, Berry, Kazanjian, Cummings, Norris, Kazanjian and maybe Brophy

Ultimately only 8 guys can make it to states and I expect that group to be:
Russell, Wilson, Barchet, Quinn, Bodine, Norris, Berry, Webb/Kazanjian (depending on whether Webb runs this race or the 4x8)

It's hard to say who will win, but I think most of the top guys are looking past this weekend so I don't expect it to be a furious race for the win. More than likely Norris will kick his way to victory but Wilson and Quinn may beat out Barchet and Russell if they are saving up for states. Not sure what the status of Russell is because of those rumors about his heatlh but I gotta imagine the kid is fine at this point and he should be good to go in this race. I like Bodine in this race, he has been consistently solid in the 32 all year. Berry and Kazanjian are nice sleepers here. Both need to pop off that big race and this weekend could be the perfect opportunity.