Record Chase

This outdoor season is going to be one of the deepest years of talent in PA's history, that much is clear. However, call me pessimistic, but I don't see any of the state records going down this year on the distance side. Here are the marks:

800m: 1:48.86 Drew Magaha

1600m: 4:03.22 Paul Vandegrift

3200m: 8:49.84 Paul Springer

4x800m: 7:33.48 CB South

The toughest one to me is that 1600m. 4:03.22 is no joke. The closest guy by PR is probably Russell at around a 4:10 conversion. That's a massive 7 second drop he would have to make to get down to the time. The drop would be even more for someone like Coyle or Huemmler. And in order to have these guys push for this time they would need a race set up to come through in close to 2 flat. Russell's focus will likely be on the 32 rather than the 16 this year which makes a record chase even more difficult. Magaha, who ran 4:07.28, still over 4 seconds off the record, just had so much more raw closing speed than the other runners in their group and his kick was lethal. I don't see anyone coming after this record this year.

I think the 2nd biggest long shot of any of these is the 7:33. I really like both Bensalem and CV's teams on paper but the splits on CB South's record setting relay back on the day were 1:55, 1:55, 1:53, 1:49. The 1:49 is going to be tough to duplicate for anybody in the state, but on a perfect day Rivera and Kunzweiler could be close. 1:53 for each team's second leg is fairly reasonable as well I'd imagine. Coburn is running great right now and Kyle Francis was down around 1:54-1:55 on the double indoors so he has the potential for a split like that as well. But to pull two 1:55 guys out of guys running around 2 flat or slower right now is going to be tough. Not impossible by any means, Manion and Dickson made great strides over the course of outdoors, but as of right now 7:33 just seems to be a bit out of the question.

A couple weeks ago, I would have said the 800m was one of the biggest long shots, but I have come around to change my mind. It's still a huge long shot in my mind, it would be very difficult to for someone to throw down that fast of a mark. But the state has so much depth around the 1:51-1:52 mark that all it takes is a fast race and a breakout performance and the record could be gone. Don't get me wrong, I don't think it will happen and it will take some serious fortune to get it, but I could at least see a situation or two where it's possible. The main front runner is Logue at this point who just showed impressive 1500m strength that I don't think a lot of people (including me) saw coming. Kunzweiler and Coyle were both 1:51 a year ago and Stone and Rivera are both 1:52 guys. All have been making fairly positive strides and only need 1 or 2 second improvements to be at 1:50, a truly phenomenal mark. 

The 3200m is definitely most likely to go down, but even this race I have a tough time jumping on board for it's demise. If it happens it will have to happen either at Henderson or Outdoor Nationals. The weather at states is going to be far from ideal for a 3200m runner. The competition will be there, but the chance at state gold or a state medal usually throws record setting marks out of the window. I believe only once has anyone run sub 9 at the state championships. The other fast marks come from traveling around and getting in fast night meets. 8:49.84 is a pair of 4:24s in a row. Anyone who doesn't have a PR under 4:15 or so in the 1600 has virtually no shot at the record if you consider that fact. Russell and Norris are the two front runners to snag a fast mark and hopefully they can show down at Henderson. There are lots of other fast 3200m guys out there and this could be a truly legendary year in terms of sub 9:10 and sub 9 minute marks, but 8:49 is blazing fast and the top returner from a year ago ran 9:11. That means if Mac Emery drops 22 seconds he gets the record. Anyone else has to drop at least 25 to get the record. That is a mammoth drop to make in one season. Not impossible with the talent and depth in this group, but certainly going to take a well set up race.