Not what I think the field will look like but what it definitely could be
Reiny Barchet: 9:21 PR
Chris Berry: 9:23 PR
Adam Bodine: 9:26 PR
Mac Emery: 9:11 PR
Connor Harriman: 9:18 PR
Francis Ferruzzi: 9:28 PR
Chris Kazanjian: 9:32 PR
Matt Kazanjian: 9:35 PR
Ken Leidal: 9:25 PR
Jack Macauley: 9:15 PR
Max Norris: 8:25c PR (9:02)
Conner Quinn: 8:34c PR (9:12)
Tony Russell: 8:38c PR/9:16 PR
Eric Stratman: 9:33 PR
Sam Webb : 9:34 PR
Ross Wilson: 8:29c PR (9:06)
In which case the top 8 times on paper yield:
1 Norris
2 Wilson
3 Emery
4 Quinn
5 Macauley
6 Russell
7 Harriman
8 Barchet
Crazy
Question is will Russell double the mile and two? After indoor states, I don't think so and my guess is Russell goes mile and maybe a relay.
ReplyDeleteI'd like to see him try it. Last person to double district 1 gold in 16/32 was Dan Coval as a junior, but he was able to jog the 3200 (9:37 win).
DeleteHenderson will definitely go 4x8, and without Chaborek they'll need another leg. Moy has stepped up, but I still think Tony will need to run it, which is tough since it's 4 races in 2 days. They guy is strong and I still think he takes 2nd in the 1600.
--ForretCRN
P.S. How about the Rico Gallasi double of 4:19/9:10! That's amazing. I think he gets redemption in the 3200 this year over Shearn. Seems as though Jaskowak is going for the 1600 since he's been doing more speed stuff, but he jumped up late last year as well, so I guess we'll see. AA race could be almost as fast as the AAA race.
Kevin kelly is too intelligent to waist Tony in a dying 4x800 team.
DeleteWhat about that relay squad is dying? They ran quite well at states, and Moy has really come on strong recently. 16/4x8 double works out fairly well and can definently be done.
DeleteI think the Henderson team could be low 7:50s without Chaborek. It makes sense for him to be on the relay, they can medal at states, and it won't affect him that much.
--ForrestCRN
Russell in a 16/4x8 double would make sense. This years 4x8 at States looks to be another thriller and I don't see henderson's relay as dying at all. Chaborek is rumored to be good to go at this point-just add Russell, Moy, Hall, Stratman, Thompson, etc...who I believe have all split sub-2.
DeleteI still see Russell as a 3200m guy this year. Moy, Hall, Collins, Stratman, Thompson whoever else they got that they can pair with Chaborek can run a relay that is solid enough to snag a medal ... unless they are thinking state gold i'm not on board with russell in the 4x8 at this point, he is a team player and i'm sure he'd make the sacrifice but he deserves to be able to go for individual gold if the relay is just going to end up between 6th and 8th
DeleteAside from Russell, Stratman has the #6 time in the 3200, Moy has #7 in the 1600, and Collins has #10 in the 1600. Barchet has not posted a great time yet, but that will probably change.
DeleteWill Russell pick his race to maximize his teammates chance to make states? I think Russell can win either the 1600 or the 3200, but not both.
Interesting to see how Coach K ends up moving the chess pieces for Districts.
Hey etrain,
ReplyDeleteCan we get a recap of the weekend action other than Penn Relays? There were a few solid times out there. Your boy Gebhart had one of them.
The 3200 is sick deep this year. I'd be surprised if 5 of those 8 make it.
ReplyDeleteI hate to be that guy... but I'm going to anyway. EVERY YEAR people talk, including myself, about how deep the 3200 is and every year we talk about 1-2 runners breaking 9 minutes at States. More than likely that won't happen. It will be a good one though, maybe 2010-esque (but nothing too much more impressive than that. The slowest medalist was 9:14; 5 broke 9:10)? I believe that districts (1/12) or Henderson/Baldwin will be the fastest 3200 of the year. States is too tactical and HOT for enough 3200m runners to push the pace like that. Most of them don't care about the time, they just want the win and they'll position themselves to get it. At Henderson when it's at night and on a fast track I believe fast times will happen.
ReplyDeleteA little more on the 9:00 topic. I think the only runner that might do it is Max Norris at Henderson with his monstrous kick. His 5k All-American status and Penn Relays win stick out to me and definitely are influential. I would say Russell, but I don't think he's training for the 3200. I think he's training more 1600 and 800 which I believe are the plans for States. Even if he was in it, I don't think he would do it this year.
Kevin James, Rico Galassi, Tony Russell, Ben Ritz, Max Norris, Ross Wilson, and Brendan Shearn are the guys I believe can do it. Ritz, Galassi, Shearn, probably Russell, won't be in the State 3200 race. Galassi and Shearn will be in the same race, but I don't think by any means they will go at it from the gun and see who can hold on longer, that could prove detrimental to both of their chances at States. That leaves Wilson, Norris, and Kevin James. Wilson is the one who will probably take charge and James and Norris will sit on him until they need to make a move (probably not until the 6th lap?). Why not let him blow his energy leading? I doubt they will go through in 4:30. Probably around 4:40. But yeah, that's my short, probably scrambled, thoughts on the 3200.
If we turn our attention to the 800, I do believe this will be one for the books. Maybe, just maybe, as stacked as it was in 2010 when we had Mallon breaking the record, Lefebure in 1:51, and the next 6 all under 1:54. We have a lot of talent and with the speed/strength of this field, I think it goes out fast (53-ish) and stays fast. If Logue runs like how he did at the distance festival, he will certainly go 1:50.
P.S.- I'm waiting for Wiseman to rock a fast 800. Maybe Henderson he will make his return?
-RTJ
Max Norris isn't doing the 3200 at Henderson, why would he run 4 3000/3200's in 5 weeks?
DeleteAlso watch guys like Wyster, Aziz, Barchet, Quinn and Emery. They all have a long shot at the sub 9 and I believe all will be at Henderson (Not sure on Emery)
DeleteNever say never, but that's a real long shot at sub 9 for that group based on performance to date.
Deletefor the record, i never said that the 32 at states would be a sub 9 race (i think) unless the weather was good in some sort of way ... henderson or some type of post states race would do the trick ...
Deletei'm still thinking russell wins the 32 at states ... call it a hunch but i did the same thing with jaskowak last year despite the fact that he stayed away from the 32 for a lot of the year and that worked out fairly solid ... norris is running great, but my gut has said russell wins
Oh sorry I didn't mean to imply that you said it. I just felt the need to throw it out there that I don't believe anyone will break 9 at States.
Delete-RTJ
You're probably right about the 3200 at states. There's always a chance someone sets a fast pace and pulls the pack along, but more likely it will unfold as you've said, being tactical and the heat having an impact. The Henderson this weekend is a different story, I expect that to be very fast with many PR's and probably 3-5 guys with huge drops.
ReplyDeleteAs for Russell, I doubt he'd be in the Henderson 4x800. Henderson is deep enough to field a solid team without him.
The number of good runners in the 800, 1600 and 3200 this year is incredible. Anyone with a legit shot at gold in one of those races should probably avoid the double and focus on just one race.
- RJJL
If he isn't running at Henderson then I don't think it'll be done (didn't know a performance list was out). And you can't count his 3k's from indoor. He's had a break and that doesn't count. I get your point though, the 3k/3200 should only be run (hard) 4 times at most in a season. Seeing as he ran it at Haverford/Penn Relays, he's probably saving his last two times for Districts and States.
ReplyDelete-RTJ
Considering he just ran 8:25 at Penn Relays, Norris has a shot at 9:00 for the 3200. Considering the race is early morning, maybe it will not be too hot.
Delete