Here is a little team preview for you.
AAA
The big debate will finally be settled! Remember this summer when my blog just started blowing up with O'Hara v. Henderson debate! Well that all comes to a dramatic conclusion this weekend and after Saturday we will know which team is better. There are no more excuses. Of course NA and CRN and heck LaSalle and CValley all want to break into that top 2 and they have not forgot that there are medals on the line at this meet. Ultimately I'm excited to see it all unfold and I hope you are as well.
1. O'Hara- O'Hara is a better team than they were a year ago when they were far and away the best team in the state. But they still very well may lose on Saturday. Henderson is very good. I'm holding on to my belief in O'Hara, however. James has taken the next step and is ready to run with the big boys. Pitone and Pastore are years improved off top 50 finishes last year. Savage is a title contender and Hayes and Belfatto are nice insurance legs. Plus they still are bitter from last year's state meet and that goes a long way. Take it from a guy who is feeling similar (much smaller scale of course) after today.
2. Henderson- The hot up and coming dynasty is finally developing into the dream team we talked about over the summer with Russell and Barchet leading the charge. The young guys behind them are developing well. I still have no idea what 7 will be on the line for this meet, but they have the depth that will make them dangerous regardless. The key for me is, and you guys can all criticize the crap out of me for this, but they still are young and they are still relatively unproven on the state course. Can't pull the trigger on the upset for that reason.
3. NA- NA really exceeded my expectations. I knew they would be good but I had no reason to believe they would be this tight at the front. Unfortunately, the tough state course and a young squad without a senior leader, Meehan, could make it tough for them to keep that tight pack together. I see a NA team of a few years ago, 3rd at states but the top PA team at Regionals. They may lose to CRN this weekend however, depending on the strength of CRN's 4-5 young guys.
4. CRN- If they scored XC to 3 guys these guys would be right in the hunt for the state title. Unfortunately, it's scored to 5 and CRN needs to have a step up day from their 4-5 guys to challenge for a podium spot. Those two guys are young and inexperienced on the course which could spell disaster. I see them as running solid and the top 3 pulling them along to 4th and maybe even 3rd, but enough to challenge Henderson.
5. CValley- I'm hoping they continue the trend of running well at states despite Districts being at Hershey. I think they have more than they had at Districts in the tank and I think that will help them shoot up the state rankings. Coburn has some room to improve as well which would be a nice help.
6. Mt. Lebanon- They had an off day at WPIALs for the second straight year, but I am banking on them coming back strong at states for the second straight year. They have experience on the course and have some underrated talent on the roster which should move them back up the state rankings as well.
7. LaSalle- They are rounding into top shape at the right time and finally getting healthy. However, the major risk with picking them is that they only have 5 guys. For all 5 guys to have a good day at the state course you need some luck. In predictions, I can't assume that luck is going to happen so I've dropped them a bit below where their talent alone would place them.
8. Hershey- I see big bounce back races for Demko and Hamilton which should pull the pack up a bit as well. I think they have proven a resilient team all season and should continue to at states.
9. Great Valley- I think they have run this race enough to fix some of their previous issues. Billy Wolffe will be the big runner for them at states I think.
10. West Chester East- I somehow always find myself picking against these guys and they always prove me worng. Well they have limited experience on this course and some young guys in the bunch who have done mostly flat, fast courses. But I invite them to continue to prove me wrong.
11. Lower Dauphin- I think Lower Dauphin had a great day at Districts and really impressed me, exceeding expectations. However, I think that could spell disaster this weekend if they can't repeat the magic on a very difficult course for magic. The only bright spot is Groh can definitely improve on his place.
12. Fox Chapel- See Lower Dauphin above but subtract the last part about having a guy with Groh like upside.
AA
Pottsgrove has been the favorite ever since they dominated the Pre-States meet. They return everyone from their varsity squad last year and they have the confidence after a great District meet. I still haven't given up on the Grove City bandwagon, however. Maybe it is because I used to see Pottsgrove all the time in AAA and they didn't scare me so I'm biased, or maybe it is because of Dan Jaskowak leading the charge for Grove City. I think that Jaskowak will be more valuable against teams with nice packs like Pottsgrove and Scranton Prep at the state meet than he was at the Pre State meet. I also am counting on a big race from Benka. That being said, I don't make this pick with a lot of confidence. Scranton Prep could very well knock Grove City back to 3rd. Quaker Valley is the defending state champion squad and always shows up at the state meet. Bonner has a nice pack as well and a front runner of their own who can make noise.
1. Grove City
2. Pottsgrove
3. Scranton Prep
4. Quaker Valley
5. Bonner
A
There is honestly not much I know about the A team title race, unfortunately I haven't been following it very closely. I know that the state meet will be kind of a front loaded meet and good front runners will be very valuable. I think Northeast Bradford is the clear title favorite because they have two big guns out front. The packs of teams like Masterman I don't think will have enough low sticks to beat them. Elk Lake also has a front runner. I think Saegertown has the best shot of pulling the upset card. They had a great district meet and have room to improve this weekend. It should be a pretty tight race and its going to come down to the #5 runners in a lot of situations.
1. Northeast Bradford
2. Saegertown
3. Elk Lake
4. Masterman
5. Vincentian Academy
6. Fairview
Sophomores by ForrestCRN
Here is an interesting been of analysis given to me by my friend ForrestCRN. Hope you find it interesting as well.
Since 1997 there have been 38 sophomore medalists in AAA. That’s an average of 2.53 sophomore medalists a year, and there has been two years (‘06 and ’02) with no medalists. 9 of these 38 (23%) have gone on to be state champions, and 5 of them won it there junior year and only 2 of them repeated (Coval in ’98 and ’99, and Miller in ’03-’05). Of these champions there places have been 2nd, 2nd, 4th, 1st, 25th, 24th, 10th, 20th , and 20th. The best year for this grade was in 2005 with 5 medalists (3, 15, 20, 24, and 25). Dennin (24th that year) went on to win 2 years later, when McNally (3rd) was 18th as a senior.
Being a state medalists as a sophomore definitely has its benefits since ¼ of the time they will go on to win, and never before have two sophomores medaled in the same class and both gone on to win titles (one as a junior and other as a senior). This cannot happen this year, since Quinn was the only sophomore state medalists in his class.
Last year we had two medalists, Brent Kennedy and Caleb Wakeley. Kennedy is definitely one of the top AAA guys now, while Wakeley may have been injured or sick this season. Guys who just missed medaling include Tony Russell (27th) and Ross Wilson (34th).
Looking on to this year, who are the stand out sophomores who have a shot at medaling?
Kevin James and Sam Webb are the two that come to mind that would continue the sophomore medaling trend. I’ve got James as 20th on my list, which bodes well since 2 of the 3 sophomore medalists who were 20th went on to win state titles, while Webb will have to work to crack the top 25.
Other sophomores to look for in the top 50 will be Dominic Stroh and Brad Foust from Altoona. They’d need to have a great race, but Altoona has brought out some great state finishes in the past with guys like Endress who was 14th as a SO. Eric Diestelow from WCE also has a shot of cracking the top 50. Most of the NA SO’s will be in the 40’s-60’s as well.
The sophomore discussion leads to two last questions:
Will Conner Quinn be part of the 60% or 40%? And will Kennedy be the 10th sophomore medalist turned state champion?
AAA Top 50 Individuals
Remember let me know ASAP if you want to do fantasy or not. Sorry to bug everyone a million times about this, but I just want to make sure that everyone who might be interested sees this.
1. Dan Savage
2. Brent Kennedy
3. Ross Wilson
4. Austin Pondel
5. Connor Harriman
6. Reiny Barchet
7. Tony Russell
8. Tom Coyle
9. Conner Quinn
10. Ean DiSilvio
11. Alec Kunzweiler
12. Max Norris
13. Ethan Martin
14. Evan Williams
15. Jack Macauley
16. Mac Emery
17. Brian Shields
18. Ryan Hertzog
19. Ernie Pitone
20. Kevin James
21. Chris Culley
22. Josh Zemet
23. Jon Colwell
24. Colin Abert
25. Francis Ferruzzi
26. Adam Bodine
27. Zach Brehm
28. Sam Webb
29. Bobby Rimkis
30. Aiden Demko
31. Luke Schott
32. Joey Steadman
33. Chris Pastore
34. Colin Martin
35. James Zingarini
36. Will Cather
37. Cordon Luoco
38. Ethan Louis
39. Matt McGoey
40. Nate Hamilton
41. Seamus Roddy
42. Curtis Watro
43. Jon Faye
44. Cole Nissley
45. Aaron Gebhart
46. Jacob Fetterman
47. Matt Hayes
48. Jake Brophy
49. Patrick Reilly
50. Andrew Stone
Others who were considered but just missed (no particular order):
Jeff Groh
James Martin
Harrison Schettler
Alec Lederer
Addison Monroe
Chris Kazanjian
Matt Willig
Billy Wolffe
Seamus Love
Scott Seel
Nathan Sloan
Jim Belfatto
Brendan Billotta
Jack Magee
Jordan Crawford
Sam Haugh
1. Dan Savage
2. Brent Kennedy
3. Ross Wilson
4. Austin Pondel
5. Connor Harriman
6. Reiny Barchet
7. Tony Russell
8. Tom Coyle
9. Conner Quinn
10. Ean DiSilvio
11. Alec Kunzweiler
12. Max Norris
13. Ethan Martin
14. Evan Williams
15. Jack Macauley
16. Mac Emery
17. Brian Shields
18. Ryan Hertzog
19. Ernie Pitone
20. Kevin James
21. Chris Culley
22. Josh Zemet
23. Jon Colwell
24. Colin Abert
25. Francis Ferruzzi
26. Adam Bodine
27. Zach Brehm
28. Sam Webb
29. Bobby Rimkis
30. Aiden Demko
31. Luke Schott
32. Joey Steadman
33. Chris Pastore
34. Colin Martin
35. James Zingarini
36. Will Cather
37. Cordon Luoco
38. Ethan Louis
39. Matt McGoey
40. Nate Hamilton
41. Seamus Roddy
42. Curtis Watro
43. Jon Faye
44. Cole Nissley
45. Aaron Gebhart
46. Jacob Fetterman
47. Matt Hayes
48. Jake Brophy
49. Patrick Reilly
50. Andrew Stone
Others who were considered but just missed (no particular order):
Jeff Groh
James Martin
Harrison Schettler
Alec Lederer
Addison Monroe
Chris Kazanjian
Matt Willig
Billy Wolffe
Seamus Love
Scott Seel
Nathan Sloan
Jim Belfatto
Brendan Billotta
Jack Magee
Jordan Crawford
Sam Haugh
A Individual Medalists
I gave A my best shot, hopefully these predictions aren't too horrible.
1. Sam Williams
2. Luke Jones
3. Rico Galassi
4. Ryan Smathers
5. Curt Jewett
6. Jordan Jackson
7. Ryan Archer
8. Jeremy Parsons
9. Ethan Wilson
10. Kelby Mullen
11. Jake Parsons
12. Greg Wagner
13. Griffin Molino
14. Barrett Kemp
15. Ryan McGuire
16. Michael Decker
17. Carter Smith
18. Sebastian Curtin
19. Alex Archer
20. Gary Olsen
21. Hunter Johnston
22. Bryce England
23. Brady Wilt
24. Tom Seykora
25. Brandon Murray
1. Sam Williams
2. Luke Jones
3. Rico Galassi
4. Ryan Smathers
5. Curt Jewett
6. Jordan Jackson
7. Ryan Archer
8. Jeremy Parsons
9. Ethan Wilson
10. Kelby Mullen
11. Jake Parsons
12. Greg Wagner
13. Griffin Molino
14. Barrett Kemp
15. Ryan McGuire
16. Michael Decker
17. Carter Smith
18. Sebastian Curtin
19. Alex Archer
20. Gary Olsen
21. Hunter Johnston
22. Bryce England
23. Brady Wilt
24. Tom Seykora
25. Brandon Murray
AA Top 25 Individuals
First off you want to get in on the Fantasy Draft please do so ASAP by contacting me on Facebook .... Not much of a draft right now honestly.
I don't really have the expertise to explain all of my reasonings for who I have where but these are my rankings for the AA state medalists. Hope you enjoy. Still plenty more to come, looks like I got off tomorrow as well.
1. Brendan Shearn
2. Dan Jaskowak
3. Vinny Todaro
4. Liam Corcoran
5. Aaron Valerosa
6. Dominic Deluca
7. Tyler Rigby
8. Aziz Yousif
9. Shawn Wolfe
10. Kieran Sutton
11. Xaiver Savageau
12. Ian Yanusko
13. Dominic Hockenbury
14. Will McDermott
15. Jaryd Flank
16. Sean Walker
17. Tyler Stelmack
18. Dan Alexander
19. Mitchell Smith
20. Gordon Phipps
21. Calvin Conrad-Kline
22. Marshall Bruce
23. Shawn Regan
24. Roy Hadfield
25. Aaron Benka
I don't really have the expertise to explain all of my reasonings for who I have where but these are my rankings for the AA state medalists. Hope you enjoy. Still plenty more to come, looks like I got off tomorrow as well.
1. Brendan Shearn
2. Dan Jaskowak
3. Vinny Todaro
4. Liam Corcoran
5. Aaron Valerosa
6. Dominic Deluca
7. Tyler Rigby
8. Aziz Yousif
9. Shawn Wolfe
10. Kieran Sutton
11. Xaiver Savageau
12. Ian Yanusko
13. Dominic Hockenbury
14. Will McDermott
15. Jaryd Flank
16. Sean Walker
17. Tyler Stelmack
18. Dan Alexander
19. Mitchell Smith
20. Gordon Phipps
21. Calvin Conrad-Kline
22. Marshall Bruce
23. Shawn Regan
24. Roy Hadfield
25. Aaron Benka
AAA Medalists in Order
25. Francis Ferruzzi, Sr Upper Dublin (1)- Obviously a little biased here, but I do believe he is ready for a big race at the state meet. He knows how to run this state course and if not for sickness last year would have been in contention for a medal last year as well. He has something to prove after Districts and I am optimistic for his performance at states.
24. Colin Abert, So Easton (11)- A little known sophomore from District 11 has caught my eye and I am really optimistic about him at this state meet. You can usually count on a few sophomores to sneak into the medal count at the state meet, and he is one of the best in the state for his class. I watched him at District 11 and he really motored around the course. If he keeps his head and runs a smart race he will be a medalist.
23. Jon Colwell, Sr Mifflin County (6)- Colwell took a big step last week with the big District 6 win over Will Cather. District 6, historically, has had pretty good showings at the state meet, led mostly by the Altoona boys, but Colwell was an under the radar 31st last year. He proved he can run the state course well and peak at the right time, and I think that experience will carry him through to a medal.
22. Josh Zemet, Sr North Allegheny (7)- Zemet is the #1 runner on NA's team and the senior leader. This team essentially always has a state medalist, and Zemet seems the most likely candidate rather than the young kids on NA's team. Zemet ran well at pre states and WPIALs and seems to be in a good posistion to contend for a state medal, especially with team title hopes dependent on how high up their tight pack finishes.
21. Chris Culley, Sr Moon Area (7)- Culley was 18th last year in a surprise finish, carried by his big kick. Culley is rounding into top shape at just the right time as well after a big finish at WPIALs. There are always a few medalists who don't capture the same magic and finish as high as they did the year before. Culley has major potential to surprise, however, and is a nice sleeper pick for this state meet especially after his race last weekend.
20. Kevin James, So O'Hara (12)- James is the ultimate come back story at states this year and I believe he will rise to the occasion and finish as the top sophomore at the state meet. I have the O'Hara team as state champions this year, I believe they will peak at the right time for states just like they have the last two years. There is a chance James will try to redeem himself so much that he goes out too hard and falls out of the medals, however, I believe that he and his teammates can roll together at an appropriate pace and place well. This team is a focused on grabbing that state title for the PCL.
19. Ernie Pitone, Sr O'Hara (12)- Team title hopes on the line, rounding into shape very nicely after PCLs, probably took it easy at Districts (somewhat). I believe in the O'Hara boys and I think Pitone rounds into shape at the right time once again and has his best race at states.
18. Ryan Hertzog, Sr South Western (3)- Honestly, I hate to say it, but it is essentially a crap shoot to guess which District 3 guys are going to be able to run well two weeks in a row at Hershey and which guys are going to blow up. But I am betting on Hertzog for this race, I think he runs the state course very well and is better than he was last weekend at Districts. He was 37th last year.
17. Brian Shields, Sr Hampton (7)- Shields has been on a roll this season and I am a big supporter of him as we approach the state meet. As a sophomore he had a very good finish at states, but Junior year faced a few obstacles that left him out of that top group. I expect him to be back and rolling at the state meet this weekend.
16. Mac Emery, Sr Council Rock North (1)- CR North is my big sleeper team by states, in my opinion they have a shot at beating NA at the state meet, depending on how the young guys rise to the occassion for both squads. Emery is going to be a key piece for CRNorth's efforts. He has the talent to run with Ross Wilson, but he has had trouble racing in the big meets. I think he has too much talent and too much motivation to be off the medal stand at Hershey.
15. Jack Macauley, Sr North Penn (1)- Macauley ran big at last year's state meet and helped lead his team to a state championship. This year, however, he doesn't have the same motivation without any other NP boys on the starting line with him. He also doesn't have as much to prove after a big track season and a big district meet. He still is way too talented to not finish on the medal stand.
14. Evan Williams, Sr Governor Mifflin (3)- Williams is one of the those D3 guys who I think will bounce back from the District meet well. Williams ran really well at Pre States and Districts last year and I think this year Governor Mifflin is ready to peak a week later than they did in 2011. Unfortunately, only Williams will get the chance to prove it.
13. Ethan Martin, Jr Fox Chapel (7)- Martin is a guy I have went back and forth on in this race. I think he is going to be a solid racer today, and has been clutch at the past few state meets. However, I think he and the Fox Chapel boys had their biggest meet of the year last season and that is going to hold him back from a top 10 finish.
12. Max Norris, Sr Harriton (1)- Norris had an off state meet last year, but going into the meet I thought he was a sure fire top 5 finisher. This year I'm still high on him for a top finish, not quite top 5, but a lot of potential here. I hope that he is healthy enough to hang on this brutal course. If he doesn't try to push the whole way win Quinn he could be a top 5 guy for sure. He has a nice finishing kick as well.
11. Alec Kunzweiler, Sr Cumberland Valley (3)- Kunzweiler has the burden of District 3 champion on him as we approach state time, but I think he will still deliver a top finish at the meet. He has proven multiple times now he is a clutch runner and his kick is certainly one of the best in the field. I don't feel comfortable placing him higher than this purely because he is District 3 champion and there is lots of potential for him to struggle. I wouldn't be surprised if he is a Lockwood more than a Galli however.
10. Ean DiSilvio, Sr Allerdice (7)- I haven't forgotten DiSilvio's big Pre-States meet. He almost held on for the win and in a race like this, he should have a little bit more push through out. He has something to prove after WPIALs where Kennedy and Martin had his number. He is a true XC runner if I ever saw one and the mud will only help him jump spots at states.
9. Conner Quinn, Sr Hatboro Horsham (1)- Quinn is one of the guys that I have gone back and forth on most. Yes, he could end up coming back and winning the state championship, but I think something is missing here now that he doesn't have Hibbs. The mud certainly helps him against these more speed based runners, but his front running style he has adopted of late scares me for the state meet. Front runners die in the back hills historically. He could be anywhere from 1st to 20th in my mind.
8. Tom Coyle, Sr LaSalle (12)- Coyle amazes me because he was able to get top fitness back so quickly. His D12 win was impressive, after I saw it I was convinced he was going to win states. I have since applied some new logic to the race. Yes, it was impressive. Yes, he very well may win states. However, I think it is more likely Coyle will struggle without his midseason fitness and fade a bit down the stretch on the brutal state course.
7. Tony Russell, Jr Henderson (1)- Henderson fans don't jump too far down my throat for this pick. Yes, Russell was a convincing District champion last weekend. Yes, Russell has proven he can run fast on hilly courses. However, I don't think Russell is ready to be the state champion. He still has to prove himself on the specific state course which he struggled with a year ago. He has to break his every other race streak vs. Barchet. He also has said he doesn't want to sacrifice a shot at team gold for individual gold. Ask Chris Derrick what that ends up like.
6. Reiny Barchet, Jr Henderson (1)- I predicted at the beginning of the season it would be Russell at Districts, Barchet at states. I can't really back out now. Barchet is more of a true XC guy than Russell (not that Russell isn't an XC guy of course, I think he has proven he is, just speaking relatively) and will benefit from the switch to the state course. The Henderson duo is pretty sick this year, but I don't project a one-two finish. Ask North Hills, Lower Merion and North Penn if those 1-2 punches ever had the big meet at states. Heck ask Gottesfield and Williams from the same Henderson school.
5. Connor Harriman, Sr Pennsbury (1)- I think Harriman will be something like 11th going into Poop-Out hill. The guy proved his kick on the state course is pretty sweet not only at Pre-States this year, but also at the state meet last year. He has had his best races on this course the last two years and although it looks like Pennsbury is slipping a little bit, I haven't given up on Harriman.
4. Austin Pondel, Sr Corry Area (10)- Pondel ran in the brutal mud last weekend. I doubt he is going to be excited about having to use those same mud runnning muscles again this weekend coming up. I truly believe Pondel is a top 3 runner in the state counting the other divisions, but I think his hard effort last weekend may take something out of his legs for this weekend. At Footlocker, however, he is one of my early picks from PA to make it through to Nats.
3. Ross Wilson, Jr Council Rock North (1)- Wilson is on fire right now. People didn't really know about this kid for a lot of the year, but he is a legitimate state title contender. He is much less of a Lehigh beneficiary than his Henderson comrades. I think he is going to eat up the hills and really suprise some people. Might even be in first place with 400m to go.
2. Brent Kennedy, Jr Kiski Area (7)- I really like Kennedy this year, and I wanted to pick him as the state champion. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the WPIAL champion carried his momentum to the state meet and used his killer kick to grab the gold. However, surprisingly, Kennedy has lost two kickers races this year. But I am picking against him more so because I do believe Seniors are the most likely state champions. If I was giving odds, he would probably have very similar odds to the guy above him on the rankings.
1. Dan Savage, Sr O'Hara (12)- Mr. Savage may not be the sexy pick for the state champion (and honestly probably is shocking for most of you to see at the top of my list), but I really believe in O'Hara at this state meet. Savage was 4th last year at the state meet in an impressive race where he beat a lot of guys I thought he wouldn't. I think the mud benefits him and is the great equalizer for a guy who is a true XC guy at heart. Normally, I wouldn't think he has the finishing speed to win a race like this, but after seeing Conner Quinn pull through last year I have new found confidence. It isn't the safest pick, but I'll take my chances.
24. Colin Abert, So Easton (11)- A little known sophomore from District 11 has caught my eye and I am really optimistic about him at this state meet. You can usually count on a few sophomores to sneak into the medal count at the state meet, and he is one of the best in the state for his class. I watched him at District 11 and he really motored around the course. If he keeps his head and runs a smart race he will be a medalist.
23. Jon Colwell, Sr Mifflin County (6)- Colwell took a big step last week with the big District 6 win over Will Cather. District 6, historically, has had pretty good showings at the state meet, led mostly by the Altoona boys, but Colwell was an under the radar 31st last year. He proved he can run the state course well and peak at the right time, and I think that experience will carry him through to a medal.
22. Josh Zemet, Sr North Allegheny (7)- Zemet is the #1 runner on NA's team and the senior leader. This team essentially always has a state medalist, and Zemet seems the most likely candidate rather than the young kids on NA's team. Zemet ran well at pre states and WPIALs and seems to be in a good posistion to contend for a state medal, especially with team title hopes dependent on how high up their tight pack finishes.
21. Chris Culley, Sr Moon Area (7)- Culley was 18th last year in a surprise finish, carried by his big kick. Culley is rounding into top shape at just the right time as well after a big finish at WPIALs. There are always a few medalists who don't capture the same magic and finish as high as they did the year before. Culley has major potential to surprise, however, and is a nice sleeper pick for this state meet especially after his race last weekend.
20. Kevin James, So O'Hara (12)- James is the ultimate come back story at states this year and I believe he will rise to the occasion and finish as the top sophomore at the state meet. I have the O'Hara team as state champions this year, I believe they will peak at the right time for states just like they have the last two years. There is a chance James will try to redeem himself so much that he goes out too hard and falls out of the medals, however, I believe that he and his teammates can roll together at an appropriate pace and place well. This team is a focused on grabbing that state title for the PCL.
19. Ernie Pitone, Sr O'Hara (12)- Team title hopes on the line, rounding into shape very nicely after PCLs, probably took it easy at Districts (somewhat). I believe in the O'Hara boys and I think Pitone rounds into shape at the right time once again and has his best race at states.
18. Ryan Hertzog, Sr South Western (3)- Honestly, I hate to say it, but it is essentially a crap shoot to guess which District 3 guys are going to be able to run well two weeks in a row at Hershey and which guys are going to blow up. But I am betting on Hertzog for this race, I think he runs the state course very well and is better than he was last weekend at Districts. He was 37th last year.
17. Brian Shields, Sr Hampton (7)- Shields has been on a roll this season and I am a big supporter of him as we approach the state meet. As a sophomore he had a very good finish at states, but Junior year faced a few obstacles that left him out of that top group. I expect him to be back and rolling at the state meet this weekend.
16. Mac Emery, Sr Council Rock North (1)- CR North is my big sleeper team by states, in my opinion they have a shot at beating NA at the state meet, depending on how the young guys rise to the occassion for both squads. Emery is going to be a key piece for CRNorth's efforts. He has the talent to run with Ross Wilson, but he has had trouble racing in the big meets. I think he has too much talent and too much motivation to be off the medal stand at Hershey.
15. Jack Macauley, Sr North Penn (1)- Macauley ran big at last year's state meet and helped lead his team to a state championship. This year, however, he doesn't have the same motivation without any other NP boys on the starting line with him. He also doesn't have as much to prove after a big track season and a big district meet. He still is way too talented to not finish on the medal stand.
14. Evan Williams, Sr Governor Mifflin (3)- Williams is one of the those D3 guys who I think will bounce back from the District meet well. Williams ran really well at Pre States and Districts last year and I think this year Governor Mifflin is ready to peak a week later than they did in 2011. Unfortunately, only Williams will get the chance to prove it.
13. Ethan Martin, Jr Fox Chapel (7)- Martin is a guy I have went back and forth on in this race. I think he is going to be a solid racer today, and has been clutch at the past few state meets. However, I think he and the Fox Chapel boys had their biggest meet of the year last season and that is going to hold him back from a top 10 finish.
12. Max Norris, Sr Harriton (1)- Norris had an off state meet last year, but going into the meet I thought he was a sure fire top 5 finisher. This year I'm still high on him for a top finish, not quite top 5, but a lot of potential here. I hope that he is healthy enough to hang on this brutal course. If he doesn't try to push the whole way win Quinn he could be a top 5 guy for sure. He has a nice finishing kick as well.
11. Alec Kunzweiler, Sr Cumberland Valley (3)- Kunzweiler has the burden of District 3 champion on him as we approach state time, but I think he will still deliver a top finish at the meet. He has proven multiple times now he is a clutch runner and his kick is certainly one of the best in the field. I don't feel comfortable placing him higher than this purely because he is District 3 champion and there is lots of potential for him to struggle. I wouldn't be surprised if he is a Lockwood more than a Galli however.
10. Ean DiSilvio, Sr Allerdice (7)- I haven't forgotten DiSilvio's big Pre-States meet. He almost held on for the win and in a race like this, he should have a little bit more push through out. He has something to prove after WPIALs where Kennedy and Martin had his number. He is a true XC runner if I ever saw one and the mud will only help him jump spots at states.
9. Conner Quinn, Sr Hatboro Horsham (1)- Quinn is one of the guys that I have gone back and forth on most. Yes, he could end up coming back and winning the state championship, but I think something is missing here now that he doesn't have Hibbs. The mud certainly helps him against these more speed based runners, but his front running style he has adopted of late scares me for the state meet. Front runners die in the back hills historically. He could be anywhere from 1st to 20th in my mind.
8. Tom Coyle, Sr LaSalle (12)- Coyle amazes me because he was able to get top fitness back so quickly. His D12 win was impressive, after I saw it I was convinced he was going to win states. I have since applied some new logic to the race. Yes, it was impressive. Yes, he very well may win states. However, I think it is more likely Coyle will struggle without his midseason fitness and fade a bit down the stretch on the brutal state course.
7. Tony Russell, Jr Henderson (1)- Henderson fans don't jump too far down my throat for this pick. Yes, Russell was a convincing District champion last weekend. Yes, Russell has proven he can run fast on hilly courses. However, I don't think Russell is ready to be the state champion. He still has to prove himself on the specific state course which he struggled with a year ago. He has to break his every other race streak vs. Barchet. He also has said he doesn't want to sacrifice a shot at team gold for individual gold. Ask Chris Derrick what that ends up like.
6. Reiny Barchet, Jr Henderson (1)- I predicted at the beginning of the season it would be Russell at Districts, Barchet at states. I can't really back out now. Barchet is more of a true XC guy than Russell (not that Russell isn't an XC guy of course, I think he has proven he is, just speaking relatively) and will benefit from the switch to the state course. The Henderson duo is pretty sick this year, but I don't project a one-two finish. Ask North Hills, Lower Merion and North Penn if those 1-2 punches ever had the big meet at states. Heck ask Gottesfield and Williams from the same Henderson school.
5. Connor Harriman, Sr Pennsbury (1)- I think Harriman will be something like 11th going into Poop-Out hill. The guy proved his kick on the state course is pretty sweet not only at Pre-States this year, but also at the state meet last year. He has had his best races on this course the last two years and although it looks like Pennsbury is slipping a little bit, I haven't given up on Harriman.
4. Austin Pondel, Sr Corry Area (10)- Pondel ran in the brutal mud last weekend. I doubt he is going to be excited about having to use those same mud runnning muscles again this weekend coming up. I truly believe Pondel is a top 3 runner in the state counting the other divisions, but I think his hard effort last weekend may take something out of his legs for this weekend. At Footlocker, however, he is one of my early picks from PA to make it through to Nats.
3. Ross Wilson, Jr Council Rock North (1)- Wilson is on fire right now. People didn't really know about this kid for a lot of the year, but he is a legitimate state title contender. He is much less of a Lehigh beneficiary than his Henderson comrades. I think he is going to eat up the hills and really suprise some people. Might even be in first place with 400m to go.
2. Brent Kennedy, Jr Kiski Area (7)- I really like Kennedy this year, and I wanted to pick him as the state champion. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the WPIAL champion carried his momentum to the state meet and used his killer kick to grab the gold. However, surprisingly, Kennedy has lost two kickers races this year. But I am picking against him more so because I do believe Seniors are the most likely state champions. If I was giving odds, he would probably have very similar odds to the guy above him on the rankings.
1. Dan Savage, Sr O'Hara (12)- Mr. Savage may not be the sexy pick for the state champion (and honestly probably is shocking for most of you to see at the top of my list), but I really believe in O'Hara at this state meet. Savage was 4th last year at the state meet in an impressive race where he beat a lot of guys I thought he wouldn't. I think the mud benefits him and is the great equalizer for a guy who is a true XC guy at heart. Normally, I wouldn't think he has the finishing speed to win a race like this, but after seeing Conner Quinn pull through last year I have new found confidence. It isn't the safest pick, but I'll take my chances.
Top 25 AAA
A little something to whet your appetite while you wait for the predictions ... These are the Top 25 guys in AAA at states in my opinion, in no particular order .... I'll figure out exactly where I want everyone in the coming weeks. It's going to be a tough year to predict.
Alec Kunzweiler
Evan Williams
Ryan Hertzog
Colin Abert
Brent Kennedy
Ethan Martin
Ean DiSilvio
Dan Savage
Tom Coyle
Kevin James
Ernie Pitone
Brian Shields
Chris Culley
Josh Zemet
Austin Pondel
Tony Russell
Ross Wilson
Reiny Barchet
Max Norris
Conner Quinn
Connor Harriman
Jack Macauley
Mac Emery
Francis Ferruzzi
Jon Colwell
Alec Kunzweiler
Evan Williams
Ryan Hertzog
Colin Abert
Brent Kennedy
Ethan Martin
Ean DiSilvio
Dan Savage
Tom Coyle
Kevin James
Ernie Pitone
Brian Shields
Chris Culley
Josh Zemet
Austin Pondel
Tony Russell
Ross Wilson
Reiny Barchet
Max Norris
Conner Quinn
Connor Harriman
Jack Macauley
Mac Emery
Francis Ferruzzi
Jon Colwell
Some Thoughts
I'm preparing my predictions for the upcoming state meet and they should be up sometime early in the week. If you want to get in a states fantasy draft again let me know ASAP on Facebook. The draft will be online sometime later this week and I will be making the group soon.
Moving on to some things I noticed throughout the week of District action.
If you are one of those guys in District 1 who was just barely edged out for a trip to states, do not look at the A results this weekend. With the course in the conditions its projected to be in, there will probably be medalists in A who don't break 18 minutes. Just a rough projection, but if you are Tristan Marcelis or Brad Rivera that hurts right about now.
That being said I think A may have the best group out front. AA will have the best race for the title with 3 huge guns out front in Shearn, Jaskowak and Todaro, but A has probably the best top 5 out of all the classes with Jones, Galassi, Smathers, Williams and Jewett. That is quite a front group. After that, however, I'm sorry to say it is a shame that the A class was created. I'm sure those guys in that top group of A don't want to be known as A champions, they want to be known as state champions and they want their shot at guys like Shearn and Quinn and all those guys. But hey, that's the way it is and that's the way I gotta predict it.
The AA race out front will be very exciting. I'm really torn between who I want to pick to win this thing because I honestly feel any of the three I mentioned above could take Gold in the fastest time of the day. That being said, I can't pick Todaro because I do believe in that pesky District 3 course curse, and I can't bring myself to pick Jaskowak after two really hard efforts against Pondel and Kennedy (possibly the top 2 runners in AAA). Especially, when Brendan Shearn has only had a relaxed meet with good conditions where I saw him run very easily to a huge victory. Plus he is the defending state champion, and since I can't see Quinn winning again this year, I feel obligated to go Shearn. For those of you who have been reading my stuff for a while, that will probably come as a bit of a surprise considering I have been a big Jaskowak supporter over the past few months, dating back to spring track, and I picked against Shearn on multiple occassions over the past few months (he pretty much always proved me wrong admittedly). But hey, I'm adaptable.
In AAA the race is anyone's guess who will win. But I do want to remind you that guys like Tony Russell are at a serious disadvantage in their quest for the title. The state title in AAA hasn't been won by a runner who didn't grab a state medal the year before in over a decade now. At Mazzacco not getting a medal was a huge surprise. That leaves me with a few names to consider for the title, namely Pondel and Kennedy, but I can't count out guys like Harriman, Quinn, DiSilvio and even Tom Coyle. But as of right now I am leaning towards picking a guy who is not even on the list of runners I just named. I haven't quite decided.
I will say this, in the last 6 years, the only guy to win Districts and States on consecutive weekends was Brad Miles of North Penn, who went on to win Northeast Regionals after that. The state champion hasn't been from outside the big 3 districts (1, 3, and 7) in a long time as well. You would have to go back to at least the 90s if I'm not mistaken.
As for team title races, I still feel strongly about the team medalists being O'Hara and Henderson. My leanings go O'Hara's way this weekend coming up. NA always has the potential to surprise, but I think they are a year or two away from being where they need to be, and losing Meehan will be no minor hindrance. Henderson looked very good this weekend at Lehigh, but the state course has not been friendly to them in recent years. Meanwhile, O'Hara has peaked perfectly at states the past two years. And I will tell you one thing, there is no way Kevin James isn't incredibly motivated for this weekend coming up. Hopefully, he doesn't do anything crazy.
Lastly, a few other story lines to consider. Brent Kennedy is coming off the highest finish at states by a sophomore since Vince McNally. McNally not only never won a state title, but never placed higher than he did as a sophomore at states. Kennedy will look to break that trend.
A freshman hasn't grabbed a medal at states since McNally did. Jake Brophy of CB East is looking to be the first to do in 8 years. In recent years, Freshman have struggled to even break into the top 50 at the state championships. Out of champions in the last 4 years or so, Ryan Gil is the highest freshman finisher at states, just outside the top 50.
Alec Kunzweiler is looking to break the curse on District 3 champions. Craig Miller was the last D3 state champion in 2005 when he won his third straight title.
When examining the past 10 state meets or so defending state champions have retained their crown roughly 50% of the time. There are two defending state champions in this race hoping to have the coin land on heads.
Moving on to some things I noticed throughout the week of District action.
If you are one of those guys in District 1 who was just barely edged out for a trip to states, do not look at the A results this weekend. With the course in the conditions its projected to be in, there will probably be medalists in A who don't break 18 minutes. Just a rough projection, but if you are Tristan Marcelis or Brad Rivera that hurts right about now.
That being said I think A may have the best group out front. AA will have the best race for the title with 3 huge guns out front in Shearn, Jaskowak and Todaro, but A has probably the best top 5 out of all the classes with Jones, Galassi, Smathers, Williams and Jewett. That is quite a front group. After that, however, I'm sorry to say it is a shame that the A class was created. I'm sure those guys in that top group of A don't want to be known as A champions, they want to be known as state champions and they want their shot at guys like Shearn and Quinn and all those guys. But hey, that's the way it is and that's the way I gotta predict it.
The AA race out front will be very exciting. I'm really torn between who I want to pick to win this thing because I honestly feel any of the three I mentioned above could take Gold in the fastest time of the day. That being said, I can't pick Todaro because I do believe in that pesky District 3 course curse, and I can't bring myself to pick Jaskowak after two really hard efforts against Pondel and Kennedy (possibly the top 2 runners in AAA). Especially, when Brendan Shearn has only had a relaxed meet with good conditions where I saw him run very easily to a huge victory. Plus he is the defending state champion, and since I can't see Quinn winning again this year, I feel obligated to go Shearn. For those of you who have been reading my stuff for a while, that will probably come as a bit of a surprise considering I have been a big Jaskowak supporter over the past few months, dating back to spring track, and I picked against Shearn on multiple occassions over the past few months (he pretty much always proved me wrong admittedly). But hey, I'm adaptable.
In AAA the race is anyone's guess who will win. But I do want to remind you that guys like Tony Russell are at a serious disadvantage in their quest for the title. The state title in AAA hasn't been won by a runner who didn't grab a state medal the year before in over a decade now. At Mazzacco not getting a medal was a huge surprise. That leaves me with a few names to consider for the title, namely Pondel and Kennedy, but I can't count out guys like Harriman, Quinn, DiSilvio and even Tom Coyle. But as of right now I am leaning towards picking a guy who is not even on the list of runners I just named. I haven't quite decided.
I will say this, in the last 6 years, the only guy to win Districts and States on consecutive weekends was Brad Miles of North Penn, who went on to win Northeast Regionals after that. The state champion hasn't been from outside the big 3 districts (1, 3, and 7) in a long time as well. You would have to go back to at least the 90s if I'm not mistaken.
As for team title races, I still feel strongly about the team medalists being O'Hara and Henderson. My leanings go O'Hara's way this weekend coming up. NA always has the potential to surprise, but I think they are a year or two away from being where they need to be, and losing Meehan will be no minor hindrance. Henderson looked very good this weekend at Lehigh, but the state course has not been friendly to them in recent years. Meanwhile, O'Hara has peaked perfectly at states the past two years. And I will tell you one thing, there is no way Kevin James isn't incredibly motivated for this weekend coming up. Hopefully, he doesn't do anything crazy.
Lastly, a few other story lines to consider. Brent Kennedy is coming off the highest finish at states by a sophomore since Vince McNally. McNally not only never won a state title, but never placed higher than he did as a sophomore at states. Kennedy will look to break that trend.
A freshman hasn't grabbed a medal at states since McNally did. Jake Brophy of CB East is looking to be the first to do in 8 years. In recent years, Freshman have struggled to even break into the top 50 at the state championships. Out of champions in the last 4 years or so, Ryan Gil is the highest freshman finisher at states, just outside the top 50.
Alec Kunzweiler is looking to break the curse on District 3 champions. Craig Miller was the last D3 state champion in 2005 when he won his third straight title.
When examining the past 10 state meets or so defending state champions have retained their crown roughly 50% of the time. There are two defending state champions in this race hoping to have the coin land on heads.
What Else Is New
LaSalle boys make it through! Very exciting to see, and I'm really happy that I don't have to start up a big petition to help them get there. Billotta bounces back big for LaSalle and my hat is off to him (not literally though, I have massive bed head and I'm hiding it). A big win for Coyle and I think this makes him a contender for the state championship next weekend. I'm seeing flashes of Ryan Gil. If he runs a smart race, he could take the gold. We will see how D1 plays out this weekend before I decide to stay anything bold. Unfortunately, I won't be there to see it first hand because I ended up being slotted to tutor during race time. But it should be a very exciting race to see unfold.
O'Hara boys have some serious depth, a good sign moving forward to the state meet. I am not postive, but it seems like after James the boys were kind of chilling. I assume Savage did not want to battle it out with Coyle the week before states, but I can't be certain. Savage is someone to watch out for as well come the state meet. He has potential for states gold in the right race.
Looks like NA lost Meehan, and a senior like that is killer to lose going into the state meet. Meehan was their #1 guy at the Foundation meet earlier this year. I have to imagine this makes it hard for NA to get on the medal stand at states, because I can't see them getting past Henderson or O'Hara. I stand by my prediction, however, that at Regionals NA will be PA's top team after their 3rd place finish at states. If that happens, they should get through to the NXN finals. That spread is dirty right now which is a great sign, I just worry about their youth at the state meet.
Fox Chapel delivered and Mt. Lebanon got in by the skin of their teeth. Hampton gave it a good run and I feel bad for those guys because they left it all out there on the course. Major props to them for almost pulling a dramatic upset. As for Lebo, I know they will be better at states next weekend. Lebo has struggled at the WPIAL meet a couple times in a row now, but they are still a strong team and I do believe they will bounce back. Fox Chapel though ran great, the Martins really exceeded my expectations. Two great races to lead the team out front. Kennedy is the real deal right now. He is definitely a top 3 guy at AAA in my mind, and could very easily be the state champ. It is a bit of a wide open year right now in all the divisions. Makes my job pretty tough next week.
O'Hara boys have some serious depth, a good sign moving forward to the state meet. I am not postive, but it seems like after James the boys were kind of chilling. I assume Savage did not want to battle it out with Coyle the week before states, but I can't be certain. Savage is someone to watch out for as well come the state meet. He has potential for states gold in the right race.
Looks like NA lost Meehan, and a senior like that is killer to lose going into the state meet. Meehan was their #1 guy at the Foundation meet earlier this year. I have to imagine this makes it hard for NA to get on the medal stand at states, because I can't see them getting past Henderson or O'Hara. I stand by my prediction, however, that at Regionals NA will be PA's top team after their 3rd place finish at states. If that happens, they should get through to the NXN finals. That spread is dirty right now which is a great sign, I just worry about their youth at the state meet.
Fox Chapel delivered and Mt. Lebanon got in by the skin of their teeth. Hampton gave it a good run and I feel bad for those guys because they left it all out there on the course. Major props to them for almost pulling a dramatic upset. As for Lebo, I know they will be better at states next weekend. Lebo has struggled at the WPIAL meet a couple times in a row now, but they are still a strong team and I do believe they will bounce back. Fox Chapel though ran great, the Martins really exceeded my expectations. Two great races to lead the team out front. Kennedy is the real deal right now. He is definitely a top 3 guy at AAA in my mind, and could very easily be the state champ. It is a bit of a wide open year right now in all the divisions. Makes my job pretty tough next week.
District 3 at Hershey: Gift or Curse?
First off, a big congrats to Cumberland Valley and Alec Kunzweiler. I thought this team was going to do the most damage at states, but they proved that even when they are not quite ready to peak they are still the best team in District 3. Kunzweiler proved that he is back to being one of the state title contenders and beat out high quality field. Lower Dauphin was impressive as well. Even with bad luck for Groh, the team still finished a very close 2nd in the team title race. Major props there for those 2-4 guys who stepped it up big time for LD.
But on to the real point of this ... how are these guys going to do in a little over a week when they are on the big stage at Hershey?
Historically, AAA has had some bad luck with its District Champions. Dating back to 2007 the AAA District 3 champions were as follows:
2007: Cedar Crest, Vince McNally (State Finish: Cedar Crest 15th, McNally 18th)
2008: Conrad Weiser, Kyle Hurston (State Finish: Conrad Weiser 10th, Hurston 18th)
2009: Conrad Weiser, Chuck Lockwood (State Finish: Conrad Weiser 11th, Lockwood 4th) ,
2010: Hempfield, Alex Galli (State Finish: Hempfield 19th, Galli 45th),
2011: Chambersburg, Jeff Groh (State Finish: Chambersburg 20th, Groh 142nd),
With the exception of 2009, where both the team title winners individual winners were the top runners from District 3 at states, those teams that have ran well at the Hershey district course have struggled at states. Most notably was Vince McNally, who ended up being a Foot Locker Finalist. He fell to 18th at the state meet after being one of the favorites for the title.
The last two years especially have had unfortunate results for D3 runners. Galli and Groh both finished out of the medaling spots at states, the first time in roughly a decade (maybe more, my resources don't go back that far) that the individual District 3 champion did not get a medal at states. The top finishers from D3 were 12th and 14th in each of those years and D3 racked up just 3 medalist spots out of the 50. In 2009 they had 3 of the top 16 runners and in 2008 they had 3 of the top 20.
The team effects were even more significant. Chambersburg and Hempfield came off their District Championships and struggled to compete at the state meet. Each team finished outside the 15 and finished as the 5th District 3 team at the state championships. The District Champions have placed in the top 10 just once at states in the past 5 state meets (Conrad Weiser, 10th).
However, there is a bright spot here for Cumberland Valley supporters. The team does know how to navigate the course two weeks in a row. Despite not winning a District Championship in the past 5 years, CV was the top team at states from District 3 4 out of the past 5 years. Guys like Chris Cotino, Andy Flynn, Mark Fuller, Ryan Hartzel and Alec Kunzweiler have improved relative to the rest of the District at the state championships.
But perhaps what surprises me most is that AA has not felt the same effects as the AAA compatriots. In fact over the past 5 years at states, the AA state champion has been from District 3 in 4 of the 5 years (the only exception is Shearn last fall). Beveridge won back to back years in very convincing fashion then Welsh and Kubiak took 1-2 for District 3 and Gruschow capped off the streak in 2010 with a bit of a surprise victory.
Vinny Todaro, who won this year's District 3 AA title, is one of the early favorites for the state title, along with Shearn and Jaskowak in the most competitive division out front in the state.
It should be interesting to see which trends prevail this coming weekend at Hershey.
2011: Chambersburg, Jeff Groh (State Finish: Chambersburg 20th, Groh 142nd),
With the exception of 2009, where both the team title winners individual winners were the top runners from District 3 at states, those teams that have ran well at the Hershey district course have struggled at states. Most notably was Vince McNally, who ended up being a Foot Locker Finalist. He fell to 18th at the state meet after being one of the favorites for the title.
The last two years especially have had unfortunate results for D3 runners. Galli and Groh both finished out of the medaling spots at states, the first time in roughly a decade (maybe more, my resources don't go back that far) that the individual District 3 champion did not get a medal at states. The top finishers from D3 were 12th and 14th in each of those years and D3 racked up just 3 medalist spots out of the 50. In 2009 they had 3 of the top 16 runners and in 2008 they had 3 of the top 20.
The team effects were even more significant. Chambersburg and Hempfield came off their District Championships and struggled to compete at the state meet. Each team finished outside the 15 and finished as the 5th District 3 team at the state championships. The District Champions have placed in the top 10 just once at states in the past 5 state meets (Conrad Weiser, 10th).
However, there is a bright spot here for Cumberland Valley supporters. The team does know how to navigate the course two weeks in a row. Despite not winning a District Championship in the past 5 years, CV was the top team at states from District 3 4 out of the past 5 years. Guys like Chris Cotino, Andy Flynn, Mark Fuller, Ryan Hartzel and Alec Kunzweiler have improved relative to the rest of the District at the state championships.
But perhaps what surprises me most is that AA has not felt the same effects as the AAA compatriots. In fact over the past 5 years at states, the AA state champion has been from District 3 in 4 of the 5 years (the only exception is Shearn last fall). Beveridge won back to back years in very convincing fashion then Welsh and Kubiak took 1-2 for District 3 and Gruschow capped off the streak in 2010 with a bit of a surprise victory.
Vinny Todaro, who won this year's District 3 AA title, is one of the early favorites for the state title, along with Shearn and Jaskowak in the most competitive division out front in the state.
It should be interesting to see which trends prevail this coming weekend at Hershey.
District 7 Picks AAA
I got North Allegheny taking the team title followed by Mt. Lebo and Fox Chapel stepping up to edge their way in front of Pittsburgh CC. The boys from PCC ran great this past weekend and they could definitely be heading back to states, but I think Fox Chapel has potential to improve. Both of their front runners are solid and I think their pack can run better than they did last weekend. Lebo and NA are the clear 1 and 2. NA really broke out at this race last year and I expect a big jump from McGoey if he goes for it from the start and races with Zemet in the lead pack. Having Meehan back should also help lower those times. I think Lebo may have a bit of an off weekend, they have had their fair share of struggles here and have come back strong at states. I expect Kennedy to run away with this race as well. Shields is my big sleeper I think he has a bunch of potential in the next two weekends. I hope Caleb Wakeley sneaks into states as well, but I think, unfortunately, early season set backs are hard to overcome.
1. Brent Kennedy, Kiski
2. Ean DiSilvio, Allerdice
3. Matt McGoey, North Allegheny
4. Ethan Martin, Fox Chapel
5. Brian Shields, Hampton
6. Luke Schott, Franklin Regional
7. Josh Zemet, North Allegheny
8. Jon Faye, Hempfield
9. Mike Meehan, North Allegheny
10. Scott Seel, North Allegheny
11. Chris Culley, Moon Area
12. Colin Martin, Fox Chapel
13. Seamus Love, North Allegheny
14. Seamus Roddy, Mt Lebanon
15. Tyler Rigby, South Park
16. Tyler Snider, Kiski
17. George Kelly, Baldwin
18. Anton Martinez, North Hills
19. Andy Haky, Pittsburgh Central
20. Patrick Miller, Kiski
21. Patrick Quirk, Mt. Lebanon
22. Jared Pollock, Mt. Lebanon
23. Trevor Blackwell, New Castle
24. Brandon Morreton, Norwin
25. Derek Zynn, Pine Richland
1. Brent Kennedy, Kiski
2. Ean DiSilvio, Allerdice
3. Matt McGoey, North Allegheny
4. Ethan Martin, Fox Chapel
5. Brian Shields, Hampton
6. Luke Schott, Franklin Regional
7. Josh Zemet, North Allegheny
8. Jon Faye, Hempfield
9. Mike Meehan, North Allegheny
10. Scott Seel, North Allegheny
11. Chris Culley, Moon Area
12. Colin Martin, Fox Chapel
13. Seamus Love, North Allegheny
14. Seamus Roddy, Mt Lebanon
15. Tyler Rigby, South Park
16. Tyler Snider, Kiski
17. George Kelly, Baldwin
18. Anton Martinez, North Hills
19. Andy Haky, Pittsburgh Central
20. Patrick Miller, Kiski
21. Patrick Quirk, Mt. Lebanon
22. Jared Pollock, Mt. Lebanon
23. Trevor Blackwell, New Castle
24. Brandon Morreton, Norwin
25. Derek Zynn, Pine Richland
District 3 Predictions AAA
I've got Hershey, CV, Lower Dauphin, and Central Dauphin in that order qualifying for the state championships. Everyone not on those teams that I have listed up until Sankey gets a state qualifying individual spot in my mind. I'm feeling a big day for Hershey yet again. I really respect this team a lot. They have been very consistent and their top guys run very consistent. There is not a lot of variation from this team. I feel the District Championship is much more important to them than Cumberland Valley and Lower Dauphin has too much variation with Groh being a little streaky and Nissley having struggled on this course in the past. We shall see it should be fun to watch. Any questions, comments, etc. leave them below.
1. Jeff Groh
2. Liam Corcoran
3. Evan Williams
4. Ryan Hertzog
5. Patrick Reilly
6. Nate Hamilton
7. Alec Kunzweiler
8. Harrison Schettler
9. Cole Nissley
10. Zach Brehm
11. Aiden Demko
12. Aaron Gebhart
13. Nathan Repetz
14. Aaron Lauer
15. Corbin Padgett
16. Jordan Crawford
17. Danny Klinik
18. Connor Zimmerman
19. James Wood
20. Alex Coburn
21. John Bitner
22. Caleb Gatchell
23. James Martin
24. Michael Urban
25. Ben Mueller
26. Jacob Connors
27. Dalton Trump
28. Matthew Sankey (First one to miss)
29. Sean Moyer
1. Jeff Groh
2. Liam Corcoran
3. Evan Williams
4. Ryan Hertzog
5. Patrick Reilly
6. Nate Hamilton
7. Alec Kunzweiler
8. Harrison Schettler
9. Cole Nissley
10. Zach Brehm
11. Aiden Demko
12. Aaron Gebhart
13. Nathan Repetz
14. Aaron Lauer
15. Corbin Padgett
16. Jordan Crawford
17. Danny Klinik
18. Connor Zimmerman
19. James Wood
20. Alex Coburn
21. John Bitner
22. Caleb Gatchell
23. James Martin
24. Michael Urban
25. Ben Mueller
26. Jacob Connors
27. Dalton Trump
28. Matthew Sankey (First one to miss)
29. Sean Moyer
District One Championship Picks
So as promised, here are my picks for the District Championship in District 1 AAA. I should be at the meet to watch the race unfold and hopefully, my predicts will be at least somewhat right. I have Henderson taking the team title followed by CRN in 2nd, Great Valley in 3rd, WC East in 4th and Pennsbury in 5th ... the last 3 spots with DTWest should be very tight. I've bolded the 25 individuals who I think will qualify for states as at large bids. Hopefully I didn't include any AA teams. Obviously there are some surprises here and when I have more time I can go more in depth about certain picks, but just let me know your thoughts and get excited for the postseason! District 7 hopefully is coming soon.
1.
Max Norris, Sr
Harriton
2.
Tony
Russell, Jr Henderson
3.
Conner Quinn, Sr
Hatboro Horsham
4.
Connor
Harriman, Sr Pennsbury
5.
Ross
Wilson, Jr Council Rock North
6.
Jack Macauley,
Sr North Penn
7.
Reiny
Barchet, Jr Henderson
8.
Francis Ferruzzi,
Sr Upper Dublin
9.
Mac
Emery, Sr Council Rock North
10. Jack Huemmler, Sr Strath Haven
11.
Sam
Webb, So Pennsbury
12.
Matt
Willig, Jr Great Valley
13. Chris Berry, Sr CB West
14. Adam Bodine, Sr Haverford
15. Curtis Watro, Sr Methacton
16. David Fowler, Jr Haverford
17.
Bobby
Rimkis, Sr Henderson
18.
James
Zingarini, Sr Council Rock North
19. Joey Steadman, Sr Downingtown West
20.
Eric
Diestelow, So West Chester East
21. Alec Brand, Sr CB East
22. Kyle Francis, Jr Bensalem
23. Jake Brophy, Fr CB East
24.
Billy
Wolffe, Sr Great Valley
25.
Chris
Cummings, Jr West Chester East
26. Kenny Leidal, Sr Downingtown West
27. Chris Kazanjan, Jr Penncrest
28.
Garrett
Zatlin, Jr Great Valley
29.
Sam
Haugh, Jr West Chester Henderson
30. Seamus Collins, Jr West Chester Henderson
30. Seamus Collins, Jr West Chester Henderson
31. Chris Coastes, Sr West Chester Rustin
32. Connor Linse, Sr Souderton
33. Brad Rivera, Sr Bensalem
34.
Steven
Dages, Jr West Chester East
35. Matt Kazanjan, Jr Penncrest
36. Steve Yannacone, Sr Unionville
37. Joey Logue, Jr Pennridge
38.
Eric
Stratman, Jr West Chester Henderson
39. Tristan Marcelis, Jr Wissahickon
40. Christian Sanders, Sr Upper Merion
41. Billy Caldwell, Jr Downingtown East
42. Michael Cassidy, Sr Spring Ford
43.
Anthony
Smart, Sr Garnet Valley (First to miss)
44.
Watson
Hanson, Jr Radnor
45.
Alex
Balla, Sr Quakertown
46.
Brian
Arita, So Council Rock North
47.
Alex
Sauer, So Pennsbury
Quick Thoughts
The D1 team race is going to be really exciting. DTWest is better than I expected not gonna lie. They have a legit shot if Pennsbury cotinues to head backwards. I think Pennsbury will definitely improve at districts with their back against the wall, but DTWest is coming fast. East and Great Valley look like they are in great position to make it to states as well.
Big race for Pittsburgh Central. I still think Fox Chapel is going to take down that last spot, but things are much more interesting now. Shields is one of the best runners that gets no play on here. Very solid, consistent runner. Kiski has a great top 3, Kennedy continues to run very well. It will be interesting to see who the 15 individuals are. Would love to see Wakeley bounce back, but I think early season injuries are tough to overcome.
Just ask Tom Coyle. He is coming back strong at PCLs for LaSalle, but O'Hara is just too good right now. Pitone is coming into his own and James is still running pretty solid as well giving them a great top 3. They have 5 solid guys out front and a good enough 6 to be back up. Last years results are clearly behind these boys and they are on a mission. It is certainly possible that LaSalle can take the other 5 spots, Billotta has had much better races than that one. I think Coyle is going to have a big stretch run to the season for those guys and he is dangerous at states.
So too is Max Norris. Huge race at Centrals. That is a big win even without Huemmler in the field. Bodine is no joke this year and Norris dropped a sick time at that race. He is going to be dangerous at Districts. Might even be my pick to win .....
Unless Conner Quinn has something to say about it. Quinn was really impressive, rounding back into form in a big way. He looks poised to make a run at a state title yet again. You can't count this guy out. Ross Wilson is also looking really good he could give a good to those other top Juniors.
Tony Russell and Reiny Barchet are going to give it a great race at Districts and I expect those boys to help keep the pace fast. I'm hoping we can see something in the 15:20s from Russell who I expect to be the better of the two boys (they are alternating right now, early in the season I picked Russell at Districts, Barchet at states so I guess I have to back it up). Henderson will win Districts no problem (sorry but it's true). The big test will be states and a shot at their own redemption.
More to come as the week goes on and I don't feel like doing work.
Stay classy.
Big race for Pittsburgh Central. I still think Fox Chapel is going to take down that last spot, but things are much more interesting now. Shields is one of the best runners that gets no play on here. Very solid, consistent runner. Kiski has a great top 3, Kennedy continues to run very well. It will be interesting to see who the 15 individuals are. Would love to see Wakeley bounce back, but I think early season injuries are tough to overcome.
Just ask Tom Coyle. He is coming back strong at PCLs for LaSalle, but O'Hara is just too good right now. Pitone is coming into his own and James is still running pretty solid as well giving them a great top 3. They have 5 solid guys out front and a good enough 6 to be back up. Last years results are clearly behind these boys and they are on a mission. It is certainly possible that LaSalle can take the other 5 spots, Billotta has had much better races than that one. I think Coyle is going to have a big stretch run to the season for those guys and he is dangerous at states.
So too is Max Norris. Huge race at Centrals. That is a big win even without Huemmler in the field. Bodine is no joke this year and Norris dropped a sick time at that race. He is going to be dangerous at Districts. Might even be my pick to win .....
Unless Conner Quinn has something to say about it. Quinn was really impressive, rounding back into form in a big way. He looks poised to make a run at a state title yet again. You can't count this guy out. Ross Wilson is also looking really good he could give a good to those other top Juniors.
Tony Russell and Reiny Barchet are going to give it a great race at Districts and I expect those boys to help keep the pace fast. I'm hoping we can see something in the 15:20s from Russell who I expect to be the better of the two boys (they are alternating right now, early in the season I picked Russell at Districts, Barchet at states so I guess I have to back it up). Henderson will win Districts no problem (sorry but it's true). The big test will be states and a shot at their own redemption.
More to come as the week goes on and I don't feel like doing work.
Stay classy.
What's Coming
I'll save you all from a huge rant I almost posted up last night about how angry I am about the PIAA stuff and how it is going to affect the state meet this year in a big way (not to mention my prediction ability will be completely thrown off ... but I mean that's not the important part here ....), and I'll tell you a bit about what I'm hoping to do in the time before states.
I want to get out a Central League and PCL Preview before the week is done. We shall see how that goes, but hopefully both will be done tomorrow.
Then the big plan is for District 3, 7 and 1 at least (hopefully also District 2, 4, 11, 6 etc.) I am going to put my entire projected state qualifying line ups up on the blog. Now some places I will be way off, but hey, I'll have some fun with it and see what goes down.
Here is where you guys get to join in on the fun. I'm going to need help deciding who to place where and what not, but mere anonymous comments on this blog are not going to cut it for me. So if you want to talk track with me, anytime I'm on facebook, I'm probably not doing serious work, so just hit me up and we can talk stats. I don't know if you noticed but I like to crunch #s ....
The main problem I face right now is that this week is going to be brutal school work wise, especially at the front part of the week when I need to be pounding out the research ...
So the other thing you guys can do is hit me up with a message on facebook and let me know what you think about the Districts (maybe even give me your own updated version of how you rank the individuals/teams in the districts). It's very possible I will mess up who is AA and who is AAA and all that crap as well so feel free to help me out with that stuff if I'm messing up somewhere along the way. I'm gonna try and bring up a list, but if anyone has one handy send it along.
Lastly, quick shout out to Corry Area. I know that more teams than these guys probably have this attitude, but since I don't know any other teams, I'll just put this out there. Major props to Corry for staying AAA even though they are a smaller school. It really shows that the runners in this state don't want to be handed a trip to states or a state medal or anything like that, they want to run fast and race the best people. Good luck to this squad at Districts.
(Hopefully no one misconstrues what I'm saying and takes offense, because ironically the better individual fields in the top 5 spots are so may be AA and A this year and not AAA but that is not a common thing ... so yeah, everyone rocks and continue to do so)
-A very not happy about homework Train
PS Kind of shameless plug, but if there is anyone out there who reads this and is interested in Muhlenberg College as a part of future down the line, let me know. I'd be happy to help out.
I want to get out a Central League and PCL Preview before the week is done. We shall see how that goes, but hopefully both will be done tomorrow.
Then the big plan is for District 3, 7 and 1 at least (hopefully also District 2, 4, 11, 6 etc.) I am going to put my entire projected state qualifying line ups up on the blog. Now some places I will be way off, but hey, I'll have some fun with it and see what goes down.
Here is where you guys get to join in on the fun. I'm going to need help deciding who to place where and what not, but mere anonymous comments on this blog are not going to cut it for me. So if you want to talk track with me, anytime I'm on facebook, I'm probably not doing serious work, so just hit me up and we can talk stats. I don't know if you noticed but I like to crunch #s ....
The main problem I face right now is that this week is going to be brutal school work wise, especially at the front part of the week when I need to be pounding out the research ...
So the other thing you guys can do is hit me up with a message on facebook and let me know what you think about the Districts (maybe even give me your own updated version of how you rank the individuals/teams in the districts). It's very possible I will mess up who is AA and who is AAA and all that crap as well so feel free to help me out with that stuff if I'm messing up somewhere along the way. I'm gonna try and bring up a list, but if anyone has one handy send it along.
Lastly, quick shout out to Corry Area. I know that more teams than these guys probably have this attitude, but since I don't know any other teams, I'll just put this out there. Major props to Corry for staying AAA even though they are a smaller school. It really shows that the runners in this state don't want to be handed a trip to states or a state medal or anything like that, they want to run fast and race the best people. Good luck to this squad at Districts.
(Hopefully no one misconstrues what I'm saying and takes offense, because ironically the better individual fields in the top 5 spots are so may be AA and A this year and not AAA but that is not a common thing ... so yeah, everyone rocks and continue to do so)
-A very not happy about homework Train
PS Kind of shameless plug, but if there is anyone out there who reads this and is interested in Muhlenberg College as a part of future down the line, let me know. I'd be happy to help out.
League Preview 10/19
Chestmont Championships 10/19
I don't know if you've heard but Henderson is pretty good this year. The team now has a pair of victories over some of New Jersey's best teams. As a result, they will have a big target on their back from teams like West Chester East, Great Valley and Downingtown West who will all look to prove they are close enough to Henderson to gain confidence they can make states in a week at Lehigh. West Chester East has been great this year and will be the team to beat for 2nd, however Great Valley has come on strong as of late and really had their breakout race at this meet a year ago. In the individual battle, Russell and Barchet should dominate the race out front. Steadman, Cummings, and Diestelow are the big names who can break up a potential Henderson sweep out front. In the next group are a bunch of sleeper picks to qualify for states as individuals as well as some solid runners like Leidal and Yannacone. It will be interesting to see what guys Henderson has coming back to full strength like Haugh who was 2nd at this meet a year ago to Ned Willig.
SOL American 10/19
The SOL American loses 3 time champion Drew Magaha and in his place steps UD's Francis Ferruzzi. Ferruzzi is undefeated in dual meets this year but showed some signs of weakness at William Tennent after some sickness. Ferruzzi will look to lead his UD team to a title as well, but Upper Merion is the team title favorites after their narrow dual meet victory over UD earlier this year. It is going to be a tight team race top to bottom. Watch out for Cooper from Upper Merion and the Marcelis brothers from Wissahickon to have break out performances. There is also a lot of potential for Williamson from UD to step up. The team needs him if they are going to win team gold.
SOL Continental 10/19
Conner Quinn, the defending state and league champion, has had a bit of a rocky start to the season, but will look to redeem himself at Lehigh. His main rival will be Jack Macauley, coming off a big performance in Delaware. Alec Brand of CB East will look to assert himself among the Districts elite as well in this field. The sleeper pick is Chris Berry who has come on strong in recent weeks and should benefit from Lehigh's fast footing. So too should Joey Logue of Pennridge, a deep sleeper in the race. Connor Linse is also a name to remember. North Penn, defending state champions, will look to hold their league title crown another year behind Macauley out front. They will need their pack to start to step it up if they are going to make a serious state run again.
SOL National 10/19
Pennsbury and CRN will dual it out yet again as CRN feels they have something big to prove, being off the rankings for a number of weeks now. The key will be if Pennsbury can bounce back after a rough NJ weekend and put their pack ahead of CRN's 4-5 guys who will look to take the next step this weekend as well. Connor Harriman and Sam Webb will face off against the big 3 from CRN that includes Mac Emery and Ross Wilson. Kyle Francis and Brad Rivera from Bensalem will mix it up with those boys as well, both coming off great William Tennent races.
I don't know if you've heard but Henderson is pretty good this year. The team now has a pair of victories over some of New Jersey's best teams. As a result, they will have a big target on their back from teams like West Chester East, Great Valley and Downingtown West who will all look to prove they are close enough to Henderson to gain confidence they can make states in a week at Lehigh. West Chester East has been great this year and will be the team to beat for 2nd, however Great Valley has come on strong as of late and really had their breakout race at this meet a year ago. In the individual battle, Russell and Barchet should dominate the race out front. Steadman, Cummings, and Diestelow are the big names who can break up a potential Henderson sweep out front. In the next group are a bunch of sleeper picks to qualify for states as individuals as well as some solid runners like Leidal and Yannacone. It will be interesting to see what guys Henderson has coming back to full strength like Haugh who was 2nd at this meet a year ago to Ned Willig.
SOL American 10/19
The SOL American loses 3 time champion Drew Magaha and in his place steps UD's Francis Ferruzzi. Ferruzzi is undefeated in dual meets this year but showed some signs of weakness at William Tennent after some sickness. Ferruzzi will look to lead his UD team to a title as well, but Upper Merion is the team title favorites after their narrow dual meet victory over UD earlier this year. It is going to be a tight team race top to bottom. Watch out for Cooper from Upper Merion and the Marcelis brothers from Wissahickon to have break out performances. There is also a lot of potential for Williamson from UD to step up. The team needs him if they are going to win team gold.
SOL Continental 10/19
Conner Quinn, the defending state and league champion, has had a bit of a rocky start to the season, but will look to redeem himself at Lehigh. His main rival will be Jack Macauley, coming off a big performance in Delaware. Alec Brand of CB East will look to assert himself among the Districts elite as well in this field. The sleeper pick is Chris Berry who has come on strong in recent weeks and should benefit from Lehigh's fast footing. So too should Joey Logue of Pennridge, a deep sleeper in the race. Connor Linse is also a name to remember. North Penn, defending state champions, will look to hold their league title crown another year behind Macauley out front. They will need their pack to start to step it up if they are going to make a serious state run again.
SOL National 10/19
Pennsbury and CRN will dual it out yet again as CRN feels they have something big to prove, being off the rankings for a number of weeks now. The key will be if Pennsbury can bounce back after a rough NJ weekend and put their pack ahead of CRN's 4-5 guys who will look to take the next step this weekend as well. Connor Harriman and Sam Webb will face off against the big 3 from CRN that includes Mac Emery and Ross Wilson. Kyle Francis and Brad Rivera from Bensalem will mix it up with those boys as well, both coming off great William Tennent races.
League Meet Preview 10/18
Pioneer Athletic Conference Championships 10/18
Pottsgrove, one of the top ranked teams in AA this season, looks to start their championship season off on the right foot as Ian Yanusko looks to grab double gold in the individual and team races after he came one spot away last season. Yanusko will be challenged by Avery Scripture, last year's 3rd place finisher, who had an impressive track season running in the 1:55-56 range for 800m and in the low 4:20s for the 1600m. Also in the mix for team and individual titles should be Curtis Watro from Methacton who placed well at the Foundation meet earlier this season. Watch out also for Dave Garton and Sean Hodgins from Perkiomen Valley.
Bicentennial League Championships 10/18
Holy Ghost Prep looks to prove they are a AA title threat this year, led by Christian Kardish. Kardish, coming off a 4:18 1600m last spring, will have to deal with experienced XC vets Tom Seykora and 2011 AA state medalist Dan Alexander. These three should headline the field at Districts next weekend.
Tri-States Coaches Association Championships 10/18
North Allegheny looks to take back the title they surrender last year to Mt. Lebanon in Slippery Rock, PA. The team title race at TSTCA should be a good indicator of who will make it to states from the WPIAL. Behind the big guns of NA and Mt. Lebanon, Fox Chapel, Kiski, Hampton, Pine Richland, Pittsburgh CC and more are all vying to try and take down the final two spots in a tight WPIAL this season. Kiski, who had a big league meet last weekend, is looking to carry the momentum this weekend, led by title favorite Brent Kennedy. The Junior will be challenged by fellow junior Ethan Martin, who will be the low stick for Fox Chapel. Caleb Wakeley, a state medalist a year ago, will look to bounce back out front, as will returning medalist Chris Culley from Moon. Zemet and Meehan will be the senior leaders for NA's pack, which could place as much as 5 guys in the top 10 spots at the meet. Roddy will lead Mt. Lebo's pack, followed by top returners Quirk and Westover. Brian Shields of Hampton is another name to remember as a possible surprise out front, a top 3 finish is a very realistic possibility if he races well. Also don't count out Luke Schott and Jon Faye who finished the spots just behind Brent Kennedy this past week. The Archer twins should be in the mix as well. Also watch out for Aziz Yousif as a sleeper pick in the race. I think this will be a big race for NA's young guys as McGoey, Seel and Love will be counted on to mix it up with the top guys in the field this weekend. My early bet is somewhere around 48 points for NA is this loaded field.
Pottsgrove, one of the top ranked teams in AA this season, looks to start their championship season off on the right foot as Ian Yanusko looks to grab double gold in the individual and team races after he came one spot away last season. Yanusko will be challenged by Avery Scripture, last year's 3rd place finisher, who had an impressive track season running in the 1:55-56 range for 800m and in the low 4:20s for the 1600m. Also in the mix for team and individual titles should be Curtis Watro from Methacton who placed well at the Foundation meet earlier this season. Watch out also for Dave Garton and Sean Hodgins from Perkiomen Valley.
Bicentennial League Championships 10/18
Holy Ghost Prep looks to prove they are a AA title threat this year, led by Christian Kardish. Kardish, coming off a 4:18 1600m last spring, will have to deal with experienced XC vets Tom Seykora and 2011 AA state medalist Dan Alexander. These three should headline the field at Districts next weekend.
Tri-States Coaches Association Championships 10/18
North Allegheny looks to take back the title they surrender last year to Mt. Lebanon in Slippery Rock, PA. The team title race at TSTCA should be a good indicator of who will make it to states from the WPIAL. Behind the big guns of NA and Mt. Lebanon, Fox Chapel, Kiski, Hampton, Pine Richland, Pittsburgh CC and more are all vying to try and take down the final two spots in a tight WPIAL this season. Kiski, who had a big league meet last weekend, is looking to carry the momentum this weekend, led by title favorite Brent Kennedy. The Junior will be challenged by fellow junior Ethan Martin, who will be the low stick for Fox Chapel. Caleb Wakeley, a state medalist a year ago, will look to bounce back out front, as will returning medalist Chris Culley from Moon. Zemet and Meehan will be the senior leaders for NA's pack, which could place as much as 5 guys in the top 10 spots at the meet. Roddy will lead Mt. Lebo's pack, followed by top returners Quirk and Westover. Brian Shields of Hampton is another name to remember as a possible surprise out front, a top 3 finish is a very realistic possibility if he races well. Also don't count out Luke Schott and Jon Faye who finished the spots just behind Brent Kennedy this past week. The Archer twins should be in the mix as well. Also watch out for Aziz Yousif as a sleeper pick in the race. I think this will be a big race for NA's young guys as McGoey, Seel and Love will be counted on to mix it up with the top guys in the field this weekend. My early bet is somewhere around 48 points for NA is this loaded field.
League Previews 10/17 Meets
Berks County Championships 10/17
Evan Williams (1st) and Connor Mertz (10th) are the only top 10 returner from last year's meet. Williams has established himself as one of the top runners in the state, however, he will need some help from his Governor Mifflin teammates if they are going to keep the team title in their locker room for another year. Andrew Lesko is the squad's #2 returner and will play a big role in the team's title quest.
Ed Narkiewicz All League Meet 10/17
Dominic Deluca, who dominated the headlines early in the season, has faded back into obscurity but will look to prove himself down the stretch as championship season begins. His Dallas teammates will look to him for leadership as they try to take down Holy Redeemer, who returns a slew of AA medal contenders, lead by Mitchell Ford. Jacob Fetterman of Hazelton is the sleeper pick here as he has strung together a series of nice races to start this season.
Evan Williams (1st) and Connor Mertz (10th) are the only top 10 returner from last year's meet. Williams has established himself as one of the top runners in the state, however, he will need some help from his Governor Mifflin teammates if they are going to keep the team title in their locker room for another year. Andrew Lesko is the squad's #2 returner and will play a big role in the team's title quest.
Ed Narkiewicz All League Meet 10/17
Dominic Deluca, who dominated the headlines early in the season, has faded back into obscurity but will look to prove himself down the stretch as championship season begins. His Dallas teammates will look to him for leadership as they try to take down Holy Redeemer, who returns a slew of AA medal contenders, lead by Mitchell Ford. Jacob Fetterman of Hazelton is the sleeper pick here as he has strung together a series of nice races to start this season.
League Previews 10/16 Meets
Lebanon Lancaster League 10/16
Harrison Schettler is the top returner for the race and is coming off a great track season where he was sub 4:20 in the mile. I haven't seen much results from him on the trials this year, but if he is healthy he is a title contender. Single A stud Shawn Wolfe will be the main competition for Schettler, hopefully pulling along his teammate Mark Bachman who was also a top runner in AA last season. Annville Celona returns their entire top 7 from last season including a bunch of young studs and a slew of Seniors. As a A team competing with some AAA squads, it will be interesting to see where they finish.
Lehigh Valley Conference 10/16
Colin Abert headlines the field at Bethlehem Muncipal as the sophomore performed admirably at Paul Short, mixing it up with a slew of solid runners. Abert was 3rd at last year's meet, but is the top returner from the race. Alec Lederer and Trevor Bergen are two other top returners as is Shawn Regan, one of the top finishers in the AA state meet in 2011. Parkland will look to take back the title at this meet, returning their top 3 runners from a year ago.
Moutain Athletic Conference 10/16
The Mifflin County boys will look to put their stamp on this race for the 2nd season. Jon Colwell and Addison Monroe took the top two spots last season and both return looking to take down those spots yet again. Colwell was 31st at the AAA state meet last season and is one of the best runners flying under the radar right now. Monroe is a nice state meet sleeper as well.
YAIAA Championships 10/16
Ryan Hertzog headlines the field as the top returner and a top 40 finisher at the state meet last year, however, he will face up and coming stud Pat Reilly from Dallastown who had a breakout race at the Carlisle Invitational. Red Lion returns most of their top runners from last year's meet, and although they lost Matt Croft, they do have the potential to take home the team title.
Harrison Schettler is the top returner for the race and is coming off a great track season where he was sub 4:20 in the mile. I haven't seen much results from him on the trials this year, but if he is healthy he is a title contender. Single A stud Shawn Wolfe will be the main competition for Schettler, hopefully pulling along his teammate Mark Bachman who was also a top runner in AA last season. Annville Celona returns their entire top 7 from last season including a bunch of young studs and a slew of Seniors. As a A team competing with some AAA squads, it will be interesting to see where they finish.
Lehigh Valley Conference 10/16
Colin Abert headlines the field at Bethlehem Muncipal as the sophomore performed admirably at Paul Short, mixing it up with a slew of solid runners. Abert was 3rd at last year's meet, but is the top returner from the race. Alec Lederer and Trevor Bergen are two other top returners as is Shawn Regan, one of the top finishers in the AA state meet in 2011. Parkland will look to take back the title at this meet, returning their top 3 runners from a year ago.
Moutain Athletic Conference 10/16
The Mifflin County boys will look to put their stamp on this race for the 2nd season. Jon Colwell and Addison Monroe took the top two spots last season and both return looking to take down those spots yet again. Colwell was 31st at the AAA state meet last season and is one of the best runners flying under the radar right now. Monroe is a nice state meet sleeper as well.
YAIAA Championships 10/16
Ryan Hertzog headlines the field as the top returner and a top 40 finisher at the state meet last year, however, he will face up and coming stud Pat Reilly from Dallastown who had a breakout race at the Carlisle Invitational. Red Lion returns most of their top runners from last year's meet, and although they lost Matt Croft, they do have the potential to take home the team title.
XC Rankings 10/14
So once again some interesting performances, hard to say anything dramatic really happened. Russell was definitely most impressive that I saw in the results, interesting stuff from Mid-Penns and congrats to Hershey, the most consistent squad in District 3. They have earned a lot of respect and hopefully I'm going to learn their whole top 3-5 guys names by Tuesday. I'm trying hard not to crucify guys like Ean DiSilvio. He is a very good runner and has had a string of very impressive races. It pains me to drop him as much as I have. The kid is going to bounce back.
1. Austin Pondel, Sr Corry Area (10 AAA)
2. Vinny Todaro, Sr Big Spring (3 AA)
3. Brent Kennedy, Jr Kiski Area (7 AAA)
4. Dan Jaskowak, Sr Grove City (10 AA)
5. Tony Russell, Jr West Chester Henderson (1 AAA)
6. Rico Galassi, Sr Holy Cross (2 A)
7. Connor Harriman, Sr Pennsbury (1 AAA)
8. Ryan Smathers, Sr North East (10 A)
9. Brendan Shearn, Sr North Schyukill (11 AA)
10. Dan Savage, Sr O'Hara (12 AAA)
11. Jack Macauley, Sr North Penn (1 AAA)
12. Curt Jewett, Sr Northeast Bradford (4 A)
13. Kevin James, So O'Hara (12 AAA)
14. Ethan Martin, Jr Fox Chapel (7 AAA)
15. Sami Aziz, Sr Germantown Friend's (Independent)
16. Sam Williams, Sr Northeast Bradford (4 A)
17. Dominic Deluca, Jr Dallas (2 AA)
18. Mac Emery, Sr Council Rock North (1 AAA)
19. Lyle Wistar, Sr Germantown Friend's School (Independent)
20. Reiny Barchet, Jr West Chester Henderson (1 AAA)
21. Ean DiSilvio, Sr Allerdice (8 AAA)
22. Ben Ritz, Sr Germantown Academy (Independent)
23. Luke Jones, Sr Elk Lake (2 A)
24. Sam Ritz, So Germantown Academy (Independent)
25. Evan Williams, Sr Governor Mifflin (3 AAA)
26. Ernie Pitone, Sr O'Hara (12 AAA)
27. Ross Wilson, Jr Council Rock North (1 AAA)
28. Sam Webb, So Pennsbury (1 AAA)
29. Liam Corcoran, Sr James Buchanan (3 AAA)
30. Mike Meehan, Sr North Allegheny (7 AAA)
31. Aaron Valeroso, Sr Towanda (4 AA)
32. Matt McGoey, So North Allegheny (7 AAA)
33. Chris Berry, Sr CB West (1 AAA)
34. Francis Ferruzzi, Sr Upper Dublin (1 AAA)
35. Jeff Groh, Jr Lower Dauphin (3 AAA)
36. Ryan Archer, Sr Vincentian Academy (7 A)
37. Shawn Wolfe, Sr Anville Celona (3 A)
38. Josh Zemet, Sr North Allegheny (7 AAA)
39. Jack Huemmler, Sr Strath Haven (1 AAA)
40. Adam Bodine, Sr Haverford (1 AAA)
41. Dave Fowler, Jr Haverford (1 AAA)
42. Nate Hamilton, Sr Hershey (3 AAA)
43. Brian Shields, Sr Hampton (7 AAA)
44. Alec Brand, Sr CB East (1 AAA)
45. Cole Nissley, Jr Lower Dauphin (3 AAA)
46. Chris Pastore, Sr O'Hara (12 AAA)
47. Seamus Roddy, Sr Mt. Lebanon (7 AAA)
48. Max Norris, Sr Harriton (1 AA)
49. Bobby Rimkis, Sr West Chester Henderson (1 AAA)
50. Conner Quinn, Sr Hatboro Horsham (1 AAA)
Just Missing
Will Cather (I know literally #51 this week as always, he just misses)
Jordan Jackson
Seamus Love
Patrick Reilly
Colin Abert
Aziz Yousif
Cordon Luoco
Alec Kunzweiler
Brad Rivera
Zach Brehm
1. Austin Pondel, Sr Corry Area (10 AAA)
2. Vinny Todaro, Sr Big Spring (3 AA)
3. Brent Kennedy, Jr Kiski Area (7 AAA)
4. Dan Jaskowak, Sr Grove City (10 AA)
5. Tony Russell, Jr West Chester Henderson (1 AAA)
6. Rico Galassi, Sr Holy Cross (2 A)
7. Connor Harriman, Sr Pennsbury (1 AAA)
8. Ryan Smathers, Sr North East (10 A)
9. Brendan Shearn, Sr North Schyukill (11 AA)
10. Dan Savage, Sr O'Hara (12 AAA)
11. Jack Macauley, Sr North Penn (1 AAA)
12. Curt Jewett, Sr Northeast Bradford (4 A)
13. Kevin James, So O'Hara (12 AAA)
14. Ethan Martin, Jr Fox Chapel (7 AAA)
15. Sami Aziz, Sr Germantown Friend's (Independent)
16. Sam Williams, Sr Northeast Bradford (4 A)
17. Dominic Deluca, Jr Dallas (2 AA)
18. Mac Emery, Sr Council Rock North (1 AAA)
19. Lyle Wistar, Sr Germantown Friend's School (Independent)
20. Reiny Barchet, Jr West Chester Henderson (1 AAA)
21. Ean DiSilvio, Sr Allerdice (8 AAA)
22. Ben Ritz, Sr Germantown Academy (Independent)
23. Luke Jones, Sr Elk Lake (2 A)
24. Sam Ritz, So Germantown Academy (Independent)
25. Evan Williams, Sr Governor Mifflin (3 AAA)
26. Ernie Pitone, Sr O'Hara (12 AAA)
27. Ross Wilson, Jr Council Rock North (1 AAA)
28. Sam Webb, So Pennsbury (1 AAA)
29. Liam Corcoran, Sr James Buchanan (3 AAA)
30. Mike Meehan, Sr North Allegheny (7 AAA)
31. Aaron Valeroso, Sr Towanda (4 AA)
32. Matt McGoey, So North Allegheny (7 AAA)
33. Chris Berry, Sr CB West (1 AAA)
34. Francis Ferruzzi, Sr Upper Dublin (1 AAA)
35. Jeff Groh, Jr Lower Dauphin (3 AAA)
36. Ryan Archer, Sr Vincentian Academy (7 A)
37. Shawn Wolfe, Sr Anville Celona (3 A)
38. Josh Zemet, Sr North Allegheny (7 AAA)
39. Jack Huemmler, Sr Strath Haven (1 AAA)
40. Adam Bodine, Sr Haverford (1 AAA)
41. Dave Fowler, Jr Haverford (1 AAA)
42. Nate Hamilton, Sr Hershey (3 AAA)
43. Brian Shields, Sr Hampton (7 AAA)
44. Alec Brand, Sr CB East (1 AAA)
45. Cole Nissley, Jr Lower Dauphin (3 AAA)
46. Chris Pastore, Sr O'Hara (12 AAA)
47. Seamus Roddy, Sr Mt. Lebanon (7 AAA)
48. Max Norris, Sr Harriton (1 AA)
49. Bobby Rimkis, Sr West Chester Henderson (1 AAA)
50. Conner Quinn, Sr Hatboro Horsham (1 AAA)
Just Missing
Will Cather (I know literally #51 this week as always, he just misses)
Jordan Jackson
Seamus Love
Patrick Reilly
Colin Abert
Aziz Yousif
Cordon Luoco
Alec Kunzweiler
Brad Rivera
Zach Brehm
Team Rankings
Some interesting things to look at for this weekend, starting and ending with ... gosh I have no idea what to do after #3. Yeah its a hard job but that's why I make the big bucks (for those of you keeping score at home that would be $0). But here is what I got for my fans out there:
1. O'Hara- I have nothing bad to say at all honestly. They are a team on a mission after last year's let down. They should be very competitive this year with a great top 3 (hopefully becoming a great top 4 with Pastore's recent improvement). Belfatto is a nice #5 and they don't have the drop off they did last year after him. Going to be a tough team to beat.
2. North Allegheny- I went there this week, I'm on the Wexford bandwagon. Look, I don't think they will beat Henderson at states but I do think this team is on the rise with the kind of spread they had again, even without their top guy Zemet. The sophomores are rounding into sick shape, McGoey, Seel and Love should all be very dangerous. Through in Luoco and you have 4 very talented youngsters. And oh yeah, those 4 may end up being their 3-6 when it counts. I anticipate 3rd at states as I have mentioned, but my bold call right now is that this team is heading to nationals after they beat O'Hara at Nike Regionals.
3. Henderson- Off weekend hurts them in the rankings again, but I haven't forgotten Carlisle. They were very dominate there and their two front runners are hard to underestimate in the big meets like states where they are extremely important. I think they will get a good chance to show off their dominance at D1 as most of their competition seems to be crumbling under injuries/high expectations.
4. Um .... LaSalle- Here is the deal folks, I feel like no one really is fully deserving of the #4 spot at this point of the season, but LaSalle to me seems most deserving. With everyone back this weekend they showed a nice pack, not a front running pack, but a nice pack. After Briarwood I actually was more confident in their team than I was over the summer. However, I wasn't sure when Stone, Coyle and Greco would be back to their old self. That moment doesn't seem far around the corner. Good luck taking the top 5 individual qualifying spots, however.
5. Mt. Lebanon- They are the 5th best team I can see right now. Good pack, solid front runners, they are the 2nd best team in arguably the 2nd best district so they deserve a top spot on the list. Nice race this weekend, nothing jaw dropping, but solid.
6. Pennsbury- Everyone is allowed an off day for sure, esepcially on a brutal course in a state you have never raced in before. Harriman is still money out front and Webb is a real solid #2 guy. However, there are some holes after that and the pieces have to stay strong for the final stretch in a tough division.
7. West Chester East- Bump them up to 4 if the injuries rumors aren't true. They are the only team that has been consistent and showed solid depth so far this year. They aren't nearly on the level of the top teams, but they can beat anyone above them on this middle list if they are healthy.
8. Cumberland Valley- Kunzweiler had an off day, but Coburn stepped up. They've got some nice weapons here and they just need to stay consistent and keep a strong pack led by good front runners.
9. Hershey- Good pack, haven't seen enough for me to make up my mind about how good they are yet. I just don't know the names on their squad well enough yet. But I know they have shown up when it counts in the big meets and that puts them here.
10. Lower Dauphin- Good 1-2 punch, solid depth at times. They earn this spot just barely over CRN. North still needs to show me what they got against other stud teams IMO. But I heard Pennsbury made some shirts that should help them get motivated.
1. O'Hara- I have nothing bad to say at all honestly. They are a team on a mission after last year's let down. They should be very competitive this year with a great top 3 (hopefully becoming a great top 4 with Pastore's recent improvement). Belfatto is a nice #5 and they don't have the drop off they did last year after him. Going to be a tough team to beat.
2. North Allegheny- I went there this week, I'm on the Wexford bandwagon. Look, I don't think they will beat Henderson at states but I do think this team is on the rise with the kind of spread they had again, even without their top guy Zemet. The sophomores are rounding into sick shape, McGoey, Seel and Love should all be very dangerous. Through in Luoco and you have 4 very talented youngsters. And oh yeah, those 4 may end up being their 3-6 when it counts. I anticipate 3rd at states as I have mentioned, but my bold call right now is that this team is heading to nationals after they beat O'Hara at Nike Regionals.
3. Henderson- Off weekend hurts them in the rankings again, but I haven't forgotten Carlisle. They were very dominate there and their two front runners are hard to underestimate in the big meets like states where they are extremely important. I think they will get a good chance to show off their dominance at D1 as most of their competition seems to be crumbling under injuries/high expectations.
4. Um .... LaSalle- Here is the deal folks, I feel like no one really is fully deserving of the #4 spot at this point of the season, but LaSalle to me seems most deserving. With everyone back this weekend they showed a nice pack, not a front running pack, but a nice pack. After Briarwood I actually was more confident in their team than I was over the summer. However, I wasn't sure when Stone, Coyle and Greco would be back to their old self. That moment doesn't seem far around the corner. Good luck taking the top 5 individual qualifying spots, however.
5. Mt. Lebanon- They are the 5th best team I can see right now. Good pack, solid front runners, they are the 2nd best team in arguably the 2nd best district so they deserve a top spot on the list. Nice race this weekend, nothing jaw dropping, but solid.
6. Pennsbury- Everyone is allowed an off day for sure, esepcially on a brutal course in a state you have never raced in before. Harriman is still money out front and Webb is a real solid #2 guy. However, there are some holes after that and the pieces have to stay strong for the final stretch in a tough division.
7. West Chester East- Bump them up to 4 if the injuries rumors aren't true. They are the only team that has been consistent and showed solid depth so far this year. They aren't nearly on the level of the top teams, but they can beat anyone above them on this middle list if they are healthy.
8. Cumberland Valley- Kunzweiler had an off day, but Coburn stepped up. They've got some nice weapons here and they just need to stay consistent and keep a strong pack led by good front runners.
9. Hershey- Good pack, haven't seen enough for me to make up my mind about how good they are yet. I just don't know the names on their squad well enough yet. But I know they have shown up when it counts in the big meets and that puts them here.
10. Lower Dauphin- Good 1-2 punch, solid depth at times. They earn this spot just barely over CRN. North still needs to show me what they got against other stud teams IMO. But I heard Pennsbury made some shirts that should help them get motivated.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)