Yes I just titled a post after a Chris Brown song, but hey, this is like my 5th post that I've made recently so cut me a tiny bit of slack.
Its fun to see guys who have been good become great. But it is way more fun to see guys who sucked become great. Ever heard of Ben Furcht? Most of the state hadn't for two years while he ran low 19s and mid 17s before running 15:53 and then under 15:10 his senior year. Hong Cho was a 2 flat guy his sophomore year when suddenly the kid started lighting it up. 1:53 high as a
Junior and a crazy 1:50 open time his senior year that culminated in a state championship.
So, since its cross season, the logical next step is to wonder where the top guys now were just 2 or three years ago before they took a few quick steps and caught the top group.
Let's look at it like this.
A lot of top guys have always been good and you always heard their names. But let's take a look at the top 5 freshman at states each of the past 3 seasons in AAA just to get an idea.
2008
102 Ned Willig
144 Logan Steiner
165 Lawtin Tellin
171 Chris Muldoon
224 Alex Moran
A few interesting names in there. Tellin and Muldoon still made the rankings this year, but certainly they are not top 5 guys. The other three are household names.
2009
74 Jon Faye
100 Ean DiSilvio
107 Dan Jaskowak
142 Alex Coburn
143 Dan Savage
Another interesting set of names. Coburn and Faye have faded into relative obscurity and Jaskowak has only recently emerged as a stand out star. DiSilvio and Savage are both on the rankings.
2010
63 Reiny Barchet
86 Matt Willig
108 Jeff Groh
110 George Kelly
111 Caleb Wakeley
Interesting group, hard to say for sure where the chips will fall as it is still very early and the Sophomore's don't normally shine until the late fall when championsip season rolls around.
So like I said above, its cool to see who has always been good. Long story short
Wilson, Hibbs, Devlin, Willig, Moran, and Steiner have all been good for as long as I can remember. Shearn, Smathers, Quinn, Williams, Jewett, and Jones have all been snaging medals and mixing it up in races since this past fall.
This leaves us with a few interesting names to talk about:
Kutcha, Jaskowak, Westwood, Runco, Burke, and Davis
Yeah I suppose that's kind of a longer list than a few, but I got a little overexcited when I was looking down the list. Trust me I even cut this list down a tad. We will start with the WPIAL guys because, quite frankly the WPIAL was better last year than it has been in a while and those kids deserve some respect. Plus that covers the most guys on the list.
In 2008 Kutcha wasn't on Baldwin's top 7 guys, while Runco was the 4th man on a Pittsburgh CC squad that finished 28th. He ran just 19:03. Kutcha did, however, lead his JV squad at the TriStates JV race with an 18:11 clocking. He finished behind 9 North Allegheny JV guys.
The next year LJ Westwood found himself on a District Champion AA Quaker Valley squad running a modest 17:37 as a soph. Kutcha clocked a 17:10 as Baldwin's 5th, while Runco was no where to be found in the results.
As Juniors this trio really got off to a hot start, especially in track where Westwood and Kutcha dropped very quick times, Westwood in the 8 and Kutcha in the 3200. In XC Runco ran 16:42, Kutcha ran 16:25 and Westwood ran 16:34 and won the AA race at Districts.
As for the other names, Sean Burke he ran 17:10 at the District 2 Championships last year finishing 4th. The year before Burke ran 18:40 as a soph and finished 31st at the District Championship, way back from the tops of the field.
Jaskowak was running behind Kildoo for a while, fighting for one of the top spots in D10 but not really on the state scene. His highlight was his 50th place finish last fall.
Dan Davis was just another random North Penn piece of the puzzle his sophomore year, finishing right next to yours truly at Districts. Since then he's taken a lot of positive steps finishing in the top 30 at States last year after an up and down season to say the least.
If there's anyone else people want to know about specifically I'll be happy to do some more in depth research for you.
-train
An Interview with etrain69
So I sent these questions to etrain69 and edited his answers for length and content. Hope everyone enjoys this peak into the eccentric mind of etrain69.
Etrain11: So Mr. 69, thanks for taking the time to answer some questions from the trainstation, I know you have a pretty busy schedule.
Etrain69: thanks train, you know I would do anything for you. And I mean that as sexually as possible.
Etrain11: Alright Mr. 69, first and foremost I’d like to ask you, who are you? And if you won’t tell us why are you keeping your identity a secret?
Etrain69: Look ET, you know I’m not gonna reveal my identity, then I would lose a lot of my fan appeal. People love a good mystery, why do you think Lobster was such a popular guy (or girl, the debate is still out on that one train). But here’s the biggest reason not to drop the shadow of anonymity: you lose your ability to say whatever you want. That was your problem train you got too soft. You started to realize you were famous and you stopped telling it like it is and started trying to kiss up to all the good runners who you were sort of friends with in reality. You can’t do that, train, that’s why you gotta keep your identity a secret. Like right now I could say Dan Jaskowak is an overrated punk and it wouldn’t matter because he has no idea who I am. But I don’t think that Dan don’t worry.
Etrain11: Out of poster’s right now who post on penntrack, where do you think you rank?
Etrain69: Let’s face it, train, I’m easily the best. You don’t post anymore, 11, so I got no competition. I’ve got an extensive wealth of knowledge from before I was even in high school that most of these guys don’t even have about the runners in the game right now.
Etrain11: What is your opinion of runthrowjump?
Etrain69: Well obviously Run DMc is pretty awesome. He posts on there like all the time and he wants to be the best in the game and certainly asks plenty of questions to try to achieve that goal. He just needs to ask a few less questions and give a few more assertive answers. I’m sure you were a little timid when you first entered the scene too, 11, so he will grow into his own, but if he’s going to be the best he needs to be a cocky SOB just like me. The only thing that accepts me is his name is too long to become one of the greatest ev. Runthrowjump? Its just more of a mouthful than your d*** (edited for content) etrain. Im surprised Run DMc hasn’t caught on, I think its awesome, but RTJ can do for now.
Etrain11: Who do you think is the favorite to win states in XC?
Etrain69: Well now ET you can phone home all you want but I like to keep my picks a little closer to the vest than that. I have to ask though etrain, Quinn Devlin seems pretty low on your rankings compared to mine and some other guys, are you mad because he gave runthrowjump a shout out in a penntrack article but not you? Have you ever gotten a shout out in a penntrack article?
Etrain11: Why make an account called etrain69 right after I retire?
Etrain69: Well I thought this would be pretty obvious train, but here’s what I got. I was a young buck then, just a freshman living in PA trying to find his way around the new cross country courses, but I saw the rankings and the blog and everything and I knew this guy was a guy who had his ish together. So imagine the horror in this little boy when his role model pulls the rug out from underneath me and leaves me cold and alone lying like a drunk kid on the bathroom floor. Well I couldn’t stand seeing penntrack led by a bunch of confused, lost puppies so I stepped in. I made an account and basically just said what you would say in the same spot with a little bit of flair and cocky attitude because that’s just the way I am. I’m no troll, I love track and I want to see penntrack not fall into an abyss of uncertainty.
Etrain11: Alright last question, even though I think I already know the answer, what does WWED stand for?
Etrain69: What Would Etrain Do. It’s like What Would Jesus Do, 11, except for I put in your name instead of Jesus. Its just supposed to be funny so if anyone is pissed about take a chill pill. Its my version of the running commandments I guess.
Big thanks to etrain69 for helping us out. Hope this was enlightening.
-train
Etrain11: So Mr. 69, thanks for taking the time to answer some questions from the trainstation, I know you have a pretty busy schedule.
Etrain69: thanks train, you know I would do anything for you. And I mean that as sexually as possible.
Etrain11: Alright Mr. 69, first and foremost I’d like to ask you, who are you? And if you won’t tell us why are you keeping your identity a secret?
Etrain69: Look ET, you know I’m not gonna reveal my identity, then I would lose a lot of my fan appeal. People love a good mystery, why do you think Lobster was such a popular guy (or girl, the debate is still out on that one train). But here’s the biggest reason not to drop the shadow of anonymity: you lose your ability to say whatever you want. That was your problem train you got too soft. You started to realize you were famous and you stopped telling it like it is and started trying to kiss up to all the good runners who you were sort of friends with in reality. You can’t do that, train, that’s why you gotta keep your identity a secret. Like right now I could say Dan Jaskowak is an overrated punk and it wouldn’t matter because he has no idea who I am. But I don’t think that Dan don’t worry.
Etrain11: Out of poster’s right now who post on penntrack, where do you think you rank?
Etrain69: Let’s face it, train, I’m easily the best. You don’t post anymore, 11, so I got no competition. I’ve got an extensive wealth of knowledge from before I was even in high school that most of these guys don’t even have about the runners in the game right now.
Etrain11: What is your opinion of runthrowjump?
Etrain69: Well obviously Run DMc is pretty awesome. He posts on there like all the time and he wants to be the best in the game and certainly asks plenty of questions to try to achieve that goal. He just needs to ask a few less questions and give a few more assertive answers. I’m sure you were a little timid when you first entered the scene too, 11, so he will grow into his own, but if he’s going to be the best he needs to be a cocky SOB just like me. The only thing that accepts me is his name is too long to become one of the greatest ev. Runthrowjump? Its just more of a mouthful than your d*** (edited for content) etrain. Im surprised Run DMc hasn’t caught on, I think its awesome, but RTJ can do for now.
Etrain11: Who do you think is the favorite to win states in XC?
Etrain69: Well now ET you can phone home all you want but I like to keep my picks a little closer to the vest than that. I have to ask though etrain, Quinn Devlin seems pretty low on your rankings compared to mine and some other guys, are you mad because he gave runthrowjump a shout out in a penntrack article but not you? Have you ever gotten a shout out in a penntrack article?
Etrain11: Why make an account called etrain69 right after I retire?
Etrain69: Well I thought this would be pretty obvious train, but here’s what I got. I was a young buck then, just a freshman living in PA trying to find his way around the new cross country courses, but I saw the rankings and the blog and everything and I knew this guy was a guy who had his ish together. So imagine the horror in this little boy when his role model pulls the rug out from underneath me and leaves me cold and alone lying like a drunk kid on the bathroom floor. Well I couldn’t stand seeing penntrack led by a bunch of confused, lost puppies so I stepped in. I made an account and basically just said what you would say in the same spot with a little bit of flair and cocky attitude because that’s just the way I am. I’m no troll, I love track and I want to see penntrack not fall into an abyss of uncertainty.
Etrain11: Alright last question, even though I think I already know the answer, what does WWED stand for?
Etrain69: What Would Etrain Do. It’s like What Would Jesus Do, 11, except for I put in your name instead of Jesus. Its just supposed to be funny so if anyone is pissed about take a chill pill. Its my version of the running commandments I guess.
Big thanks to etrain69 for helping us out. Hope this was enlightening.
-train
Conner Quinn
First of all I'd just like to say I didn't realize this guy's name was spelled with an e for a very long time so I am sorry to him for spelling his name wrong all these years.
So here we go why is Conner Quinn ranked the spot he is. Well quite frankly, I think you can make an arguement Quinn is too high on my list or too low on my list, so therefore I put him in the middle of those two arguements.
Argument for a higher rank:
Quinn trains with Sam Hibbs. Quinn has raced within 5-10 seconds of Hibbs every race this season. Hibbs is the favorite for the state championship. Therefore, Quinn is a top 5 guy. Very logical arguement. He was 20th at States a year ago and ran the fastest out of all the sophomore's at states (not 100% positive on that stat but I'm pretty sure that's right). He is starting out much faster than he did last season time wise and running times fairly similar to Hibbs at this point last year and Hibbs took 7th in what I consider a deeper field than this years at the AAA level.
Pretty solid stats, pretty solid argument.
Argument for a lower rank:
Quinn trains and runs close to Sam Hibbs but he still has lost to a bunch of other runners. At Prestates he lost Connor Harriman, at Viking he lost to Max Norris, at Briarwood he ran a slower time than Dan Savage and Mike Billotta yet all those guys are fairly far behind him on the list. Now he beat Savage and Bilotta at Pre States and they were in the faster race at Briarwood with guys to chase but Quinn didn't win his race at Briarwood either. Meanwhile Brendan Shearn at 7 just one spot ahead of Quinn is undefeated this season fairly convincingly winning his two races with relative ease. Carlisle was the biggest meet of the year last year and although it clearly wasn't this year, he still won. And PTXC featured the likes of Wade Endress, Ed Schrom, and Logan Mohn a year ago so that meet was solid before as well. Shearn also ran faster on the track by a bunch (somewhere in the low 9:20s and mid to low 4:20s with a couple state medals). Quinn may be close to Hibbs, but he still has let other guys slip in between the two of them. And as I said before, I'm not extremely high on Hibbs compared to other guys. Sure I think he will win states, but that's just because I haven't found another guy who I think has the talent do it. Dustin Wilson is still not in the PIAA last time I checked so I'm out of options for guys who have proven they are legitimately better than Hibbs.
Overall, I opted more towards the second argument than the first and thus Quinn falls perhaps a little farther than he is on most's rankings.
Hey it could have been worse for the guy, after Paul Short Max Norris may also be ahead of him.
-train
So here we go why is Conner Quinn ranked the spot he is. Well quite frankly, I think you can make an arguement Quinn is too high on my list or too low on my list, so therefore I put him in the middle of those two arguements.
Argument for a higher rank:
Quinn trains with Sam Hibbs. Quinn has raced within 5-10 seconds of Hibbs every race this season. Hibbs is the favorite for the state championship. Therefore, Quinn is a top 5 guy. Very logical arguement. He was 20th at States a year ago and ran the fastest out of all the sophomore's at states (not 100% positive on that stat but I'm pretty sure that's right). He is starting out much faster than he did last season time wise and running times fairly similar to Hibbs at this point last year and Hibbs took 7th in what I consider a deeper field than this years at the AAA level.
Pretty solid stats, pretty solid argument.
Argument for a lower rank:
Quinn trains and runs close to Sam Hibbs but he still has lost to a bunch of other runners. At Prestates he lost Connor Harriman, at Viking he lost to Max Norris, at Briarwood he ran a slower time than Dan Savage and Mike Billotta yet all those guys are fairly far behind him on the list. Now he beat Savage and Bilotta at Pre States and they were in the faster race at Briarwood with guys to chase but Quinn didn't win his race at Briarwood either. Meanwhile Brendan Shearn at 7 just one spot ahead of Quinn is undefeated this season fairly convincingly winning his two races with relative ease. Carlisle was the biggest meet of the year last year and although it clearly wasn't this year, he still won. And PTXC featured the likes of Wade Endress, Ed Schrom, and Logan Mohn a year ago so that meet was solid before as well. Shearn also ran faster on the track by a bunch (somewhere in the low 9:20s and mid to low 4:20s with a couple state medals). Quinn may be close to Hibbs, but he still has let other guys slip in between the two of them. And as I said before, I'm not extremely high on Hibbs compared to other guys. Sure I think he will win states, but that's just because I haven't found another guy who I think has the talent do it. Dustin Wilson is still not in the PIAA last time I checked so I'm out of options for guys who have proven they are legitimately better than Hibbs.
Overall, I opted more towards the second argument than the first and thus Quinn falls perhaps a little farther than he is on most's rankings.
Hey it could have been worse for the guy, after Paul Short Max Norris may also be ahead of him.
-train
Mid Week Long Run
First of all I just wanted to say I really appreciate all the comments and questions. I'm working the best I can to fill you guys in on my thinking. Still on my to do list is the Conner Quinn talk and the "How'd they get here?" segment for talking about how the top guys looked in their younger days.
But for right now I wanted to continue my new trend of posting called the mid week long run and talk about the meet I'm looking forward to this weekend which is the Paul Short Invitational at Lehigh Universtiy. I myself will be there this year for the college races (not the high school ones this year as I am not reporting) and the atmosphere should, as always, be electric. Admittedly mud looks like it could be a slight issue again, yet I still expect to see fast times. The weather on race day itself seems pretty solid.
This race always features big names and fast times, plenty of guys usually smoke the 16 minute barrier and this year I see no signs that things will be different. Last year 6 guys were under 16 minutes in the Brown race and out of the AAA guys, 5 went on to grab state medals and a few more AA men went on to grab medals of their own including outdoor 3200m state champion Jon Trueman (18th last year).
Just running down the list here are some guys I currently either have on my top 50 or think easily could be on my top 50 that are signed up to run this Friday across from Goodman Stadium. Sorry if I forget someone or mix up team names in my head.
#26 Sean Burke, Abington Heights
#19 Korey Replogle, Altoona
#38 Dylan Moutain, Altoona
#1 Dustin Wilson, Chesnut Hill Academy
#4 Quinn Devlin, Downingtown West
#43 Kenny Leidel, Downingtown West
Cole Campbell, Emmaus
#6 Ned Willg, Great Valley
Matt Willig, Great Valley
# 13 Max Norris, Harriton
Jon Kays, Haverford
#42 Zach Israel, Holy Ghost Prep
Ryan Horgan, Holy Ghost Prep
#14 Tom Coyle, LaSalle
#7 Brendan Shearn, North Schuylkill
Will Cather, State College Area
#30 Jeff Seelaus, Strath Haven
#50 Ben Robinson, Tunkhannock
#49 Jake Siegel, Tunkhannock
#18 Aaron Wilkinson, Valley View
Anybody from West Chester Henderson if they show up
Quite a long list of guys who are amongst the best that I've seen. For me the favorite is obviously Wilson who has proven that he is the elite of this year's PA stand outs, but looking down the list I see a lot of potential for breakout performances time wise. Now Quinn Devlin is a big question mark because I haven't seen him race, but if he is in this race and ready to go he's a front runner who won't let Wilson get away. It could pull him to a great time. In conference rival Ned Willig has to have new found confidence after his track season and I very impressive opening race performance at Briarwood. This course plays more to his speed advantage and if he can hang around with Dustin long enough, it is very realistic to think he can outkick him for the win. Willig ran under 16 minutes on this course as a freshman.
Not too far down the list a couple of guys to watch would be the Jrs Max Norris, Tom Coyle, and Brendan Shearn. Shearn is undefeated this season at two big invitationals and I am sure he has his eyes set on competing for the win again today. Hard to say for sure where his fitness is at because he really hasn't been challenged to date. This course doesn't seem to play to his strengths comapred to guys like Willig who have got a lot more speed, but he can definitely mix it up with the top group.
Meanwhile speed is Tom Coyle and Max Norris's middle name. Coyle split 1:54 at Penn Relays and Max Norris is sub 4:20 for 1600m. Coyle has taken the next step to become a very solid XC participant in addition to his track success after his 2nd place finish at Carlisle. Norris meanwhile has been fairly silent since just missing Sam Hibbs at the Viking Invite. Should be exciting to watch these too, especially over the last 1000m.
A few deep sleepers to leave you with. Haven't been all that impressed by Replogle or Wilkinson but these two guys are proven state medalists who have mixed it up in quality fields before. Replogle looked better at Carlisle than some of his previous races this season which is a good sign. Wilkinson got rocked by a clearly much improved Luke Jones earlier this fall, so he still may be better than last season. Only time will tell.
Finally, my big super sleeper to watch in the race is Jeff Seelaus of Strath Haven. He already has a big win to his name over Mac Emery and he comes from a Strath Haven program that has had a lot of talent guys go through their system. He may have a breakout performance to prove he has taken the next step to the elite level this friday.
-train
But for right now I wanted to continue my new trend of posting called the mid week long run and talk about the meet I'm looking forward to this weekend which is the Paul Short Invitational at Lehigh Universtiy. I myself will be there this year for the college races (not the high school ones this year as I am not reporting) and the atmosphere should, as always, be electric. Admittedly mud looks like it could be a slight issue again, yet I still expect to see fast times. The weather on race day itself seems pretty solid.
This race always features big names and fast times, plenty of guys usually smoke the 16 minute barrier and this year I see no signs that things will be different. Last year 6 guys were under 16 minutes in the Brown race and out of the AAA guys, 5 went on to grab state medals and a few more AA men went on to grab medals of their own including outdoor 3200m state champion Jon Trueman (18th last year).
Just running down the list here are some guys I currently either have on my top 50 or think easily could be on my top 50 that are signed up to run this Friday across from Goodman Stadium. Sorry if I forget someone or mix up team names in my head.
#26 Sean Burke, Abington Heights
#19 Korey Replogle, Altoona
#38 Dylan Moutain, Altoona
#1 Dustin Wilson, Chesnut Hill Academy
#4 Quinn Devlin, Downingtown West
#43 Kenny Leidel, Downingtown West
Cole Campbell, Emmaus
#6 Ned Willg, Great Valley
Matt Willig, Great Valley
# 13 Max Norris, Harriton
Jon Kays, Haverford
#42 Zach Israel, Holy Ghost Prep
Ryan Horgan, Holy Ghost Prep
#14 Tom Coyle, LaSalle
#7 Brendan Shearn, North Schuylkill
Will Cather, State College Area
#30 Jeff Seelaus, Strath Haven
#50 Ben Robinson, Tunkhannock
#49 Jake Siegel, Tunkhannock
#18 Aaron Wilkinson, Valley View
Anybody from West Chester Henderson if they show up
Quite a long list of guys who are amongst the best that I've seen. For me the favorite is obviously Wilson who has proven that he is the elite of this year's PA stand outs, but looking down the list I see a lot of potential for breakout performances time wise. Now Quinn Devlin is a big question mark because I haven't seen him race, but if he is in this race and ready to go he's a front runner who won't let Wilson get away. It could pull him to a great time. In conference rival Ned Willig has to have new found confidence after his track season and I very impressive opening race performance at Briarwood. This course plays more to his speed advantage and if he can hang around with Dustin long enough, it is very realistic to think he can outkick him for the win. Willig ran under 16 minutes on this course as a freshman.
Not too far down the list a couple of guys to watch would be the Jrs Max Norris, Tom Coyle, and Brendan Shearn. Shearn is undefeated this season at two big invitationals and I am sure he has his eyes set on competing for the win again today. Hard to say for sure where his fitness is at because he really hasn't been challenged to date. This course doesn't seem to play to his strengths comapred to guys like Willig who have got a lot more speed, but he can definitely mix it up with the top group.
Meanwhile speed is Tom Coyle and Max Norris's middle name. Coyle split 1:54 at Penn Relays and Max Norris is sub 4:20 for 1600m. Coyle has taken the next step to become a very solid XC participant in addition to his track success after his 2nd place finish at Carlisle. Norris meanwhile has been fairly silent since just missing Sam Hibbs at the Viking Invite. Should be exciting to watch these too, especially over the last 1000m.
A few deep sleepers to leave you with. Haven't been all that impressed by Replogle or Wilkinson but these two guys are proven state medalists who have mixed it up in quality fields before. Replogle looked better at Carlisle than some of his previous races this season which is a good sign. Wilkinson got rocked by a clearly much improved Luke Jones earlier this fall, so he still may be better than last season. Only time will tell.
Finally, my big super sleeper to watch in the race is Jeff Seelaus of Strath Haven. He already has a big win to his name over Mac Emery and he comes from a Strath Haven program that has had a lot of talent guys go through their system. He may have a breakout performance to prove he has taken the next step to the elite level this friday.
-train
Hibbs and Kutcha
So here's my thoughts on this little match up of man power right here. First of all I have to admit that a part of me made this move because I was getting bored with the rankings the way they were and wanted to spice things up a little bit. I did the same thing last year around this point when I moved Endress over Gil the week before Carlisle. Does that discredit the rankings a little bit, yes, of course it does. But I do have an arguement behind my reasoning (which most of you will probably not agree with, but hopefully at least respect).
So here we go. First off I want to say why Sam Hibbs is still my pick to win states in about a month. And yes he is still my pick to win even if the rankings don't reflect that. As I have said before these are right now rankings and right now my gut says Kutcha but if I was a betting man I'd bet on Hibbs for the long haul. Here's why.
For starter's Hibbs is the top returner from last year, the top returner from the 2 mile at states (98% sure anyway) and he is undefeated thus far this XC season. He comes from a great historic program and family that already has a footlocker finalist to their name and he has one of the best training partners in the state in Conner Quinn. He peaked at the right time each of the past two years and has excelled on hillier courses. He is consistent and there are no clear weaknesses in his running.
So the obvious question is now, what could possibly be wrong with the guy. My reason, as said above, you will probably be very unimpressed with, is the "wow" factor. When I saw Ben Furcht's opening season result's two years ago, I knew he was going to do something big. When I saw Tarsnane run his 3200s at Districts and States junior year, you knew he'd have a big XC season in the fall. When Ryan Gil broke free and ran 9:03 in the 3200m he was an obvious favorite for gold. I've seen a lot of performances that have made me say wow this season, however, none of them have been from Hibbs. Part of this is of course the fact that most people expect him to win and he does, but it is the way he is winning that is different. He won the prestates meet with a time slower than what it took to win the Blue race (not by much but is Sam Williams on the same level as Sam Hibbs? Not in these rankings and certainly not by most people's estimate's on penntrack). He didn't race Dustin Wilson at Briarwood (talk about a wow race) and easily won his race in a time comparable to Ned Willig's time, only Ned was doing it literally all alone (much more of a wow race for me).
So why Kutcha then? Well Kutcha has run a big wow race before (somewhere around 9:16-9:18 for the 3200m last spring) and that really launched him onto the scene. He wasn't a big name last spring like Hibbs, he hasn't had all the talk or state medals or anything like that. He is only just now experiencing and learning how to run on the big scene. He was shadowed by guys like Bobby Bishop and Matt Cecala and TJ Hobart and Dennis Logan and Paul Degregorio and the list goes on, but now he's the guy for the first time (unlike Hibbs whose been the guy since Sophomore year). So that will take time to learn the ropes. Solid race at Gateway Invite to start the season (course record I believe) finishes just behind Moran at RWB and fairly far behind Jaskowak but within striking distance. Then he just destroyed a field (a weak field but all the same) at Maymont this past weekend and looked like he was heading up while Moran and Steiner took a sharp dip the other way.
The only other guy who I could have seen realistically usurping Hibbs for the #2 spot is Jaskowak because Willig hasn't raced enough and Devlin hasn't raced period (besides a couple dual meets I heard about). But for me, despite amazing numbers, I can't quite feel comfortable posting up Jaskowak at #2. Its so early to be running this fast with seemingly no previous accomplishments to suggest a jump like this (besides training with Jacob Kildoo for a couple seasons). So for me I need just a tiny bit more proof that the guy isn't peaking too early. Hey he's a very, very close #5 right now so obviously I think the guy is good.
Overall, Hibbs is still the favorite for states without a doubt. No one has one states after not at least medaling the year before (this is on the AAA side folks) since another Baldwin guy way back in 2001 (i think) named Dan Mazzacco. Hebda couldn't do it last year, Furcht before him and the list goes on.
Should be fun to find out.
-train
So here we go. First off I want to say why Sam Hibbs is still my pick to win states in about a month. And yes he is still my pick to win even if the rankings don't reflect that. As I have said before these are right now rankings and right now my gut says Kutcha but if I was a betting man I'd bet on Hibbs for the long haul. Here's why.
For starter's Hibbs is the top returner from last year, the top returner from the 2 mile at states (98% sure anyway) and he is undefeated thus far this XC season. He comes from a great historic program and family that already has a footlocker finalist to their name and he has one of the best training partners in the state in Conner Quinn. He peaked at the right time each of the past two years and has excelled on hillier courses. He is consistent and there are no clear weaknesses in his running.
So the obvious question is now, what could possibly be wrong with the guy. My reason, as said above, you will probably be very unimpressed with, is the "wow" factor. When I saw Ben Furcht's opening season result's two years ago, I knew he was going to do something big. When I saw Tarsnane run his 3200s at Districts and States junior year, you knew he'd have a big XC season in the fall. When Ryan Gil broke free and ran 9:03 in the 3200m he was an obvious favorite for gold. I've seen a lot of performances that have made me say wow this season, however, none of them have been from Hibbs. Part of this is of course the fact that most people expect him to win and he does, but it is the way he is winning that is different. He won the prestates meet with a time slower than what it took to win the Blue race (not by much but is Sam Williams on the same level as Sam Hibbs? Not in these rankings and certainly not by most people's estimate's on penntrack). He didn't race Dustin Wilson at Briarwood (talk about a wow race) and easily won his race in a time comparable to Ned Willig's time, only Ned was doing it literally all alone (much more of a wow race for me).
So why Kutcha then? Well Kutcha has run a big wow race before (somewhere around 9:16-9:18 for the 3200m last spring) and that really launched him onto the scene. He wasn't a big name last spring like Hibbs, he hasn't had all the talk or state medals or anything like that. He is only just now experiencing and learning how to run on the big scene. He was shadowed by guys like Bobby Bishop and Matt Cecala and TJ Hobart and Dennis Logan and Paul Degregorio and the list goes on, but now he's the guy for the first time (unlike Hibbs whose been the guy since Sophomore year). So that will take time to learn the ropes. Solid race at Gateway Invite to start the season (course record I believe) finishes just behind Moran at RWB and fairly far behind Jaskowak but within striking distance. Then he just destroyed a field (a weak field but all the same) at Maymont this past weekend and looked like he was heading up while Moran and Steiner took a sharp dip the other way.
The only other guy who I could have seen realistically usurping Hibbs for the #2 spot is Jaskowak because Willig hasn't raced enough and Devlin hasn't raced period (besides a couple dual meets I heard about). But for me, despite amazing numbers, I can't quite feel comfortable posting up Jaskowak at #2. Its so early to be running this fast with seemingly no previous accomplishments to suggest a jump like this (besides training with Jacob Kildoo for a couple seasons). So for me I need just a tiny bit more proof that the guy isn't peaking too early. Hey he's a very, very close #5 right now so obviously I think the guy is good.
Overall, Hibbs is still the favorite for states without a doubt. No one has one states after not at least medaling the year before (this is on the AAA side folks) since another Baldwin guy way back in 2001 (i think) named Dan Mazzacco. Hebda couldn't do it last year, Furcht before him and the list goes on.
Should be fun to find out.
-train
XC Top 50 Summary
Alright so yes this is later than expected to post the rankings and yes I am a little out of touch, but hey I got it up eventually (yes that is what she said). So folks here are my new rankings which kinda look very different from the old rankings but not as different as I thought they may.
I've got a lot I'd like to say about this stuff, but I don't know what specifically you want to hear about. I could sit here and ramble for a while on way I think Kutcha is so good when all you want to hear about is Tom Coyle, or tell you why Strynkowski was such a let down when you want to hear about Steiner.
So either facebook message me, text me, call me, comment on here or penntrack message me and I'll let you know in full detail. I love talking about this stuff and I want to prove I'm not that out of touch so feel free to hit me up.
-train
I've got a lot I'd like to say about this stuff, but I don't know what specifically you want to hear about. I could sit here and ramble for a while on way I think Kutcha is so good when all you want to hear about is Tom Coyle, or tell you why Strynkowski was such a let down when you want to hear about Steiner.
So either facebook message me, text me, call me, comment on here or penntrack message me and I'll let you know in full detail. I love talking about this stuff and I want to prove I'm not that out of touch so feel free to hit me up.
-train
XC Top 50 9/27
1. Dustin Wilson
2. Andrew Kutcha
3. Sam Hibbs
4. Quinn Devlin
5. Dan Jaskowak
6. Ned Willig
7. Brendan Shearn
8. Conner Quinn
9. Alex Moran
10. Logan Steiner
11. LJ Westwood
12. Connor Harriman
13. Max Norris
14. Tom Coyle
15. Drew Magaha
16. Sam Williams
17. Ryan Smathers
18. Aaron Wilkinson
19. Korey Replogle
20. Curt Jewett
21. Luke Jones
22. Brent Kennedy
23. Mike Runco
24. Dan Savage
25. Ean DiSilvio
26. Sean Burke
27. Dan Davis
28. Mac Emery
29. Jack MaCauley
30. Jeff Seelaus
31. Francis Ferruzzi
32. Lawtin Tellin
33. Alex Kane
34. Mike Billotta
35. Connor Strynkowski
36. Brett Kelly
37. Nate Kreider
38. Dylan Mountain
39. Tim Appman
40. John Ausel
41. Jeff Groh
42. Zach Israel
43. Kenny Leidel
44. Matt Croft
45. Chris Muldoon
46. Adam Catora
47. Evan Williams
48. Zach Moon
49. Jake Seigel
50. Ben Robinson
2. Andrew Kutcha
3. Sam Hibbs
4. Quinn Devlin
5. Dan Jaskowak
6. Ned Willig
7. Brendan Shearn
8. Conner Quinn
9. Alex Moran
10. Logan Steiner
11. LJ Westwood
12. Connor Harriman
13. Max Norris
14. Tom Coyle
15. Drew Magaha
16. Sam Williams
17. Ryan Smathers
18. Aaron Wilkinson
19. Korey Replogle
20. Curt Jewett
21. Luke Jones
22. Brent Kennedy
23. Mike Runco
24. Dan Savage
25. Ean DiSilvio
26. Sean Burke
27. Dan Davis
28. Mac Emery
29. Jack MaCauley
30. Jeff Seelaus
31. Francis Ferruzzi
32. Lawtin Tellin
33. Alex Kane
34. Mike Billotta
35. Connor Strynkowski
36. Brett Kelly
37. Nate Kreider
38. Dylan Mountain
39. Tim Appman
40. John Ausel
41. Jeff Groh
42. Zach Israel
43. Kenny Leidel
44. Matt Croft
45. Chris Muldoon
46. Adam Catora
47. Evan Williams
48. Zach Moon
49. Jake Seigel
50. Ben Robinson
Midweek Long Run
This weekend there will be a meet that is commonly refered to as the "pre-states" meet at Hershey's cross country course that will play host to the 2011 PIAA State Championships in just over a month. However, the true states preview race is not happening in Hershey, but instead at Carlisle High School at the biggest invitational of the season.
This race over the past few years has truly blossomed into the biggest midseason meet any team can run in. Last year the race produced an astounding amount of future state medalists and team title contenders. Out of the 25 AAA state medalists in 2010, 13 of them ran in this race. 1st place finisher Ryan Gil was a distant 4th in the race, while state runner up Wade Endress was 2nd to Martin Hehir, a future footlocker finalist from New York. The race also included top 10 finishers at States Jacob Kildoo (5th at states, 6th at this meet), Reece Ayers (6th at States, 12th at Carlisle) and Sam Hibbs (7th at States, 9th at Carlisle). And of course AA State Champion Tom Gruschow was also in the race, finishing 31st.
In the team race, Tunkhannock (6th at States, 9th at Carlisle), Mt. Lebanon (7th at States, 6th at Carlisle), Hatboro Horhsam (8th at States, 11th at Carlisle), LaSalle (10th at States, 4th at Carlisle), North Penn (2nd at District One Championships, 17th at Carlisle), Altoona (5th at States, 2nd at Carlisle), and North Allegheny (1st at both meets) were all in attendance. Wow.
This year things shouldn't be less epic. When factoring in the Challenge race and the Championship race there are a lot of guys who were in the top 50 at states a year ago who are coming out to race. Quinn Devlin is the top returner from the meet. He was 5th here a year ago but had back luck at states dropping him to 26th at the big race (3rd at Districts, just a spot behind Hibbs). Hibbs is the top returner from the State Championships and is coupled with the top sophomore from the meet Conner Quinn (20th at States, 18th at Carlisle).
Other top 5 at states hopefuls include Alex Moran and Logan Steiner who were 14th and 13th at states a year ago and 14th and 11th at this meet.
Other men returning from the top 50 last year include Korey Replogle, Matt Croft, Connor Strynkowski, Dan Davis, Jake Seigel, and Dan Jaskowak (a name you should know).
Plus guys like Lawtin Tellin, Tom Coyle, Francis Ferruzzi, Jack Macauley and Brendan Shearn are all supposedly entered this year and are ranked in my top 50.
Meanwhile North Allegheny, Mt. Lebanon, and North Penn are all teams to watch this season and all competed in this meet a year ago.
Overall this meet should be epic and it is something you definitely don't want to miss.
This race over the past few years has truly blossomed into the biggest midseason meet any team can run in. Last year the race produced an astounding amount of future state medalists and team title contenders. Out of the 25 AAA state medalists in 2010, 13 of them ran in this race. 1st place finisher Ryan Gil was a distant 4th in the race, while state runner up Wade Endress was 2nd to Martin Hehir, a future footlocker finalist from New York. The race also included top 10 finishers at States Jacob Kildoo (5th at states, 6th at this meet), Reece Ayers (6th at States, 12th at Carlisle) and Sam Hibbs (7th at States, 9th at Carlisle). And of course AA State Champion Tom Gruschow was also in the race, finishing 31st.
In the team race, Tunkhannock (6th at States, 9th at Carlisle), Mt. Lebanon (7th at States, 6th at Carlisle), Hatboro Horhsam (8th at States, 11th at Carlisle), LaSalle (10th at States, 4th at Carlisle), North Penn (2nd at District One Championships, 17th at Carlisle), Altoona (5th at States, 2nd at Carlisle), and North Allegheny (1st at both meets) were all in attendance. Wow.
This year things shouldn't be less epic. When factoring in the Challenge race and the Championship race there are a lot of guys who were in the top 50 at states a year ago who are coming out to race. Quinn Devlin is the top returner from the meet. He was 5th here a year ago but had back luck at states dropping him to 26th at the big race (3rd at Districts, just a spot behind Hibbs). Hibbs is the top returner from the State Championships and is coupled with the top sophomore from the meet Conner Quinn (20th at States, 18th at Carlisle).
Other top 5 at states hopefuls include Alex Moran and Logan Steiner who were 14th and 13th at states a year ago and 14th and 11th at this meet.
Other men returning from the top 50 last year include Korey Replogle, Matt Croft, Connor Strynkowski, Dan Davis, Jake Seigel, and Dan Jaskowak (a name you should know).
Plus guys like Lawtin Tellin, Tom Coyle, Francis Ferruzzi, Jack Macauley and Brendan Shearn are all supposedly entered this year and are ranked in my top 50.
Meanwhile North Allegheny, Mt. Lebanon, and North Penn are all teams to watch this season and all competed in this meet a year ago.
Overall this meet should be epic and it is something you definitely don't want to miss.
Friday Stat
First off I would like to give my sincere congrats to Mt. Lebanon on earning the top spot on Penntrack's team rankings this week. They completely deserve this honor and have had some very nice early season races.
That being said, here's my stat:
North Allegheny hasn't lost at WPIALs since 2004.
In 2004 when NA did last lose, they had a top five that featured three freshman and no seniors and dropped 178 points on the championship course.
Since that time they have scored under 100 points at every championship, averaged just a shade under 71 points per. Not to mention that during a three year span from 2006 to 2008 the team from Wexford scored a combined 162 points at the meet. In the past five seasons North Allegheny has been 3rd twice, 2nd once and 1st this past season at the State Championships.
In 2007 the team was a highly praised favorite for the State Championship, however they were underwhelming at the big meets like Carlisle and states. On top of that, they lost their top two runners from the previous year who were 9th and 12th at states, with sub 16 times on their resume. Needless to say people didn't expect what they saw in 2008.
NA ended up in the top 15 at Nationals behind a tight spread and guys like Chase Broussard and Eric Balaban taking a step from JV nobody to household name. If not for a string of bad luck at states the team may have been gold, but they ended up off the medal stand behind surprise team LaSalle.
So in 2009 when they lost three of their top 5 runners from a National qualifier there was not much hope for a better finish at states. Except North Allegheny managed to finish better at states. Taking 2nd with a 3rd place finish by Gil and some random runners like Cadwaller pulling through in the clutch.
But again they lost a bunch of guys from the 2009 squad so could they continue to stay on top? Well in 2010 they proved all the doubters wrong behind a Gold medal from Ryan Gil despite struggling through a broken foot all season and finishing just 4th at the District Championships behind 3 guys wearing the same jersey.
Admittedly, the past few years its been close. Baldwin has ran a couple very solid races at the WPIAL course and given NA a run for their money, but still guys like Mike Meehan come from seemingly thin air and help carry the team back to the top.
And this year its not Baldwin who NA will be competing with at the stretch run for the WPIAL title, its Mt. Lebanon. Baldwin historically always had huge performances at the WPIAL Championsips, before somewhat large let downs at states. Guys like TJ Hobart and Dave Adley had their best races of the season at Cooper's Lake. Meanwhile guys like Alex Moran have gotten smacked around a little at WPIALs. Moran was 8th there a year ago and 14th at states. Gunzenhauser was beaten by 13 seconds for the title in 2009 by Ryan Gil, who he flipped the script on the next week at states, nearly taking the title. Moran didn't make it to states in 2009 in a surprising turn of events. He missed it by just one spot.
So why should history be different this year? Is there any reason to believe someone like Vincent Tonzo will stay hidden in the middle of race results for NA when he is coming off a killer 1:55 800 performance in the spring? Is Sam Bojarski really going to continue hovering around 17 flat when he ran 4:24 on the track a few months ago?
And these two aren't even a part of the returners from the team that WON the state championship a year ago.
Good luck to everybody else.
-train
So now its time to let us know what you think. Vote for who you think will win the WPIAL this season on the poll on the side bar and feel free to drop me a comment with your opinion.
That being said, here's my stat:
North Allegheny hasn't lost at WPIALs since 2004.
In 2004 when NA did last lose, they had a top five that featured three freshman and no seniors and dropped 178 points on the championship course.
Since that time they have scored under 100 points at every championship, averaged just a shade under 71 points per. Not to mention that during a three year span from 2006 to 2008 the team from Wexford scored a combined 162 points at the meet. In the past five seasons North Allegheny has been 3rd twice, 2nd once and 1st this past season at the State Championships.
In 2007 the team was a highly praised favorite for the State Championship, however they were underwhelming at the big meets like Carlisle and states. On top of that, they lost their top two runners from the previous year who were 9th and 12th at states, with sub 16 times on their resume. Needless to say people didn't expect what they saw in 2008.
NA ended up in the top 15 at Nationals behind a tight spread and guys like Chase Broussard and Eric Balaban taking a step from JV nobody to household name. If not for a string of bad luck at states the team may have been gold, but they ended up off the medal stand behind surprise team LaSalle.
So in 2009 when they lost three of their top 5 runners from a National qualifier there was not much hope for a better finish at states. Except North Allegheny managed to finish better at states. Taking 2nd with a 3rd place finish by Gil and some random runners like Cadwaller pulling through in the clutch.
But again they lost a bunch of guys from the 2009 squad so could they continue to stay on top? Well in 2010 they proved all the doubters wrong behind a Gold medal from Ryan Gil despite struggling through a broken foot all season and finishing just 4th at the District Championships behind 3 guys wearing the same jersey.
Admittedly, the past few years its been close. Baldwin has ran a couple very solid races at the WPIAL course and given NA a run for their money, but still guys like Mike Meehan come from seemingly thin air and help carry the team back to the top.
And this year its not Baldwin who NA will be competing with at the stretch run for the WPIAL title, its Mt. Lebanon. Baldwin historically always had huge performances at the WPIAL Championsips, before somewhat large let downs at states. Guys like TJ Hobart and Dave Adley had their best races of the season at Cooper's Lake. Meanwhile guys like Alex Moran have gotten smacked around a little at WPIALs. Moran was 8th there a year ago and 14th at states. Gunzenhauser was beaten by 13 seconds for the title in 2009 by Ryan Gil, who he flipped the script on the next week at states, nearly taking the title. Moran didn't make it to states in 2009 in a surprising turn of events. He missed it by just one spot.
So why should history be different this year? Is there any reason to believe someone like Vincent Tonzo will stay hidden in the middle of race results for NA when he is coming off a killer 1:55 800 performance in the spring? Is Sam Bojarski really going to continue hovering around 17 flat when he ran 4:24 on the track a few months ago?
And these two aren't even a part of the returners from the team that WON the state championship a year ago.
Good luck to everybody else.
-train
So now its time to let us know what you think. Vote for who you think will win the WPIAL this season on the poll on the side bar and feel free to drop me a comment with your opinion.
Mid-Week Long Run
It's that time of the week when its hard to see the finish line through the trees, or should I say through the cornfields at Lehigh, and you would rather be searching up Paul Short results from 5 years ago than sitting at lunch talking to your friends. Well, ok bad example, but the point is, you need something to look forward to at the end of the week and for most of us thats race time. Although I personally don't race this week, there is some interesting action slated for this coming weekend and I thought I'd give you a little etrain flavored enthusiasm for what's ahead.
The meet I want to talk about for this weekend is the Briarwood Invitational at Belmont Plateau. Some guys got a sneak preview of what to expect from that course this past weekend at the 4xXC meet which featured a bunch of names on the rise like Tom Coyle, Max Norris, Francis Ferruzzi and Andrew Stone just to name a few. This weekend a few of those guys should be back, plus lots more talent from not just PA.
Its hard to believe that it has now been 4 years since I last ran in the Briarwood Invitational JV race. Honestly, the course is fun to run, but its a huge challenge. Sophomore me was more than satisfied running 19:20ish. It starts out with a tough grass hill right from the gun, a steep down hill loop into the first mile and then of course Parachute Hill which still haunts my nightmares. This course is used for the PCL guys a lot and it has to help mentally prepare you for the states course (even if it doesn't physically prepare you, running it a week out from the big dance).
But I'm a stat guy and the fact that the last number I threw at you was one of my own relatively insignificant high school times is eating away at my insides right now. Or that may have to do with the fact that I only had three bowls of cereal at breakfast this morning, rather than the five I had yesterday. I am so college.
So lets crunch numbers. In 2008, 4 years ago when I ran the course, Chris Bodary won the championship race and took down a very impressive course record that belonged to South Moreland's Chris Dugan (roughly 9 flat two miler) from his 1996 run. His time was 15:47.
But perhaps what was more interesting was considering the names and times behind Bodary. Norht Penn of course had their first break out race and began to build up their reputation for being a cross country power. Finishing 2nd was Zach Hoagland (15:49), 4th was Brad Miles (16:06, sophomore) and 10th was Zack Montijo (16:30). Ironically, by states the three completely flip flopped (Montijo, Miles, Hoagland) and Miles and Montijo dropped under 15:30 by Districts (Hoagland was at about the same time).
Meanwhile other individuals who were behind Bodary and the course record run probably do not wish they could trade places with him in retrospect. 3rd place finisher Dan Lowry ran just 16:06 but by November was the 12th place finisher at the Footlocker Regional, barely missing a trip to nationals. And oh yeah he split 4:12 on the DMR anchor leg indoors. So he did just fine.
In 7th place was a name you also might recoginize: Joe Rosa. His freshman year campaign was started off with a modest 16:27.
But Rosa would wait to really drop the hammer until the coming years where as a Sophomore in 2008 he reset the course record by a tiny bit (15:33.1 from it's 15:47 from the previous year, p.s. tiny bit was sarcasm). Then he managed to find a way to lower it by just a little more in 2009 (15:19.2). So yeah the kid could striaght roll. Hes graduated now so I don't expect any miracles to go down this year and watch the record get dropped again, but hey I guess you never know.
So what about some other big names times in past years on the course?
2008
3rd DeSabato, Sr FCS 15:47 (Top 20 at FL Regionals)
4th Keefe, Sr CRS 15:57 (Top 10 at Districts, No State Medal)
5th Miles, Jr NP 16:08 (7th at States)
6th Ivo Milic, Sr FCS 16:14 (Indoor State Champ in the Mile)
9th Sam Bernitt, Jr NP 16:18 (10th at States)
10th Chris O'Sullivan, Jr SJP 16:20 (24th at States)
24th Tom O'Kane, Jr LaSalle 16:48 (25th at States)
2009
3rd Miles, Sr NP 15:47 (1st at States and FL Regionals so I guess he did ok)
5th O'Sullivan, Sr SJP 16:14 (18th at States)
Sam Hibbs, So Hatboro Horsham 16:50 (12th at States)
2010
1st Tom Trainer, Sr LaSalle 16:10 (17th at States, 2nd Indoor 3000m)
3rd Chris Garrity, Sr O'Hara 16:24 (22nd at States)
So now for the tough part where the real analysts make their money. What do these numbers mean?
Well for one thing it means without the Rosa's times are going to be slower. Trainer wins in 2010 with a time good enough to land Ivo 6th 2 years earlier. But hey that's how things go, great runners graduate and move on and meets adjust, people step in. I can tell you that somebody usually emerges as a sleeper from a race like this such as O'Kane, Hibbs Bernitt and Garrity did with modest times and great states finishes. Someone like that should produce down the line. And at this meet there is firepower, but necessarily from the top PA finishers. Sure Miles won after his great performance here, but look at guys like Bodary and Hoagland and Keefe under 16 minutes but not finishing at States the way they started. Meanwhile Dan Lowry and Zack Montijo were pinning their ears back at states and districts and regionals and making noise when it counted.
Overall you can't read too much into results from this point in the season but I have to think Sam Hibbs is going to either assert himself as a state title contender at a race like this. There shouldn't be too deep of a field although I have heard teams like Great Valley may show up that would definitely shake things up. Admittedly Hibbs and Quinn (17:20 on this course last year, took 20th at states) were at the Division One race, not the Championship race every year since I have followed the meet (i.e. Hatboro Horsham was) so that could definitely complicate the matter.
I'm excited to get a feel for how these returning state medalist do, the Great Valley guys (if they finally have anything close to a full team) and some of the LaSalle and O'Hara youngsters who know this course and have something to prove.
One thing is for sure if O'Hara wins big, we will probably hear about how no one picked them to win. Bummer.
The meet I want to talk about for this weekend is the Briarwood Invitational at Belmont Plateau. Some guys got a sneak preview of what to expect from that course this past weekend at the 4xXC meet which featured a bunch of names on the rise like Tom Coyle, Max Norris, Francis Ferruzzi and Andrew Stone just to name a few. This weekend a few of those guys should be back, plus lots more talent from not just PA.
Its hard to believe that it has now been 4 years since I last ran in the Briarwood Invitational JV race. Honestly, the course is fun to run, but its a huge challenge. Sophomore me was more than satisfied running 19:20ish. It starts out with a tough grass hill right from the gun, a steep down hill loop into the first mile and then of course Parachute Hill which still haunts my nightmares. This course is used for the PCL guys a lot and it has to help mentally prepare you for the states course (even if it doesn't physically prepare you, running it a week out from the big dance).
But I'm a stat guy and the fact that the last number I threw at you was one of my own relatively insignificant high school times is eating away at my insides right now. Or that may have to do with the fact that I only had three bowls of cereal at breakfast this morning, rather than the five I had yesterday. I am so college.
So lets crunch numbers. In 2008, 4 years ago when I ran the course, Chris Bodary won the championship race and took down a very impressive course record that belonged to South Moreland's Chris Dugan (roughly 9 flat two miler) from his 1996 run. His time was 15:47.
But perhaps what was more interesting was considering the names and times behind Bodary. Norht Penn of course had their first break out race and began to build up their reputation for being a cross country power. Finishing 2nd was Zach Hoagland (15:49), 4th was Brad Miles (16:06, sophomore) and 10th was Zack Montijo (16:30). Ironically, by states the three completely flip flopped (Montijo, Miles, Hoagland) and Miles and Montijo dropped under 15:30 by Districts (Hoagland was at about the same time).
Meanwhile other individuals who were behind Bodary and the course record run probably do not wish they could trade places with him in retrospect. 3rd place finisher Dan Lowry ran just 16:06 but by November was the 12th place finisher at the Footlocker Regional, barely missing a trip to nationals. And oh yeah he split 4:12 on the DMR anchor leg indoors. So he did just fine.
In 7th place was a name you also might recoginize: Joe Rosa. His freshman year campaign was started off with a modest 16:27.
But Rosa would wait to really drop the hammer until the coming years where as a Sophomore in 2008 he reset the course record by a tiny bit (15:33.1 from it's 15:47 from the previous year, p.s. tiny bit was sarcasm). Then he managed to find a way to lower it by just a little more in 2009 (15:19.2). So yeah the kid could striaght roll. Hes graduated now so I don't expect any miracles to go down this year and watch the record get dropped again, but hey I guess you never know.
So what about some other big names times in past years on the course?
2008
3rd DeSabato, Sr FCS 15:47 (Top 20 at FL Regionals)
4th Keefe, Sr CRS 15:57 (Top 10 at Districts, No State Medal)
5th Miles, Jr NP 16:08 (7th at States)
6th Ivo Milic, Sr FCS 16:14 (Indoor State Champ in the Mile)
9th Sam Bernitt, Jr NP 16:18 (10th at States)
10th Chris O'Sullivan, Jr SJP 16:20 (24th at States)
24th Tom O'Kane, Jr LaSalle 16:48 (25th at States)
2009
3rd Miles, Sr NP 15:47 (1st at States and FL Regionals so I guess he did ok)
5th O'Sullivan, Sr SJP 16:14 (18th at States)
Sam Hibbs, So Hatboro Horsham 16:50 (12th at States)
2010
1st Tom Trainer, Sr LaSalle 16:10 (17th at States, 2nd Indoor 3000m)
3rd Chris Garrity, Sr O'Hara 16:24 (22nd at States)
So now for the tough part where the real analysts make their money. What do these numbers mean?
Well for one thing it means without the Rosa's times are going to be slower. Trainer wins in 2010 with a time good enough to land Ivo 6th 2 years earlier. But hey that's how things go, great runners graduate and move on and meets adjust, people step in. I can tell you that somebody usually emerges as a sleeper from a race like this such as O'Kane, Hibbs Bernitt and Garrity did with modest times and great states finishes. Someone like that should produce down the line. And at this meet there is firepower, but necessarily from the top PA finishers. Sure Miles won after his great performance here, but look at guys like Bodary and Hoagland and Keefe under 16 minutes but not finishing at States the way they started. Meanwhile Dan Lowry and Zack Montijo were pinning their ears back at states and districts and regionals and making noise when it counted.
Overall you can't read too much into results from this point in the season but I have to think Sam Hibbs is going to either assert himself as a state title contender at a race like this. There shouldn't be too deep of a field although I have heard teams like Great Valley may show up that would definitely shake things up. Admittedly Hibbs and Quinn (17:20 on this course last year, took 20th at states) were at the Division One race, not the Championship race every year since I have followed the meet (i.e. Hatboro Horsham was) so that could definitely complicate the matter.
I'm excited to get a feel for how these returning state medalist do, the Great Valley guys (if they finally have anything close to a full team) and some of the LaSalle and O'Hara youngsters who know this course and have something to prove.
One thing is for sure if O'Hara wins big, we will probably hear about how no one picked them to win. Bummer.
Analysis
So here is my opinion in brief on the last month or so of PA cross country. First off, glad to see somebody like Sam Hibbs win a big invitational, might be his first win of the season. Its important to win races like this if you are going to go on to be a state champion. Mac Emery looks like hes going to be pretty good out of CR North and Magaha is actually in good shape in September so watch out. Moran is obviously good but Andrew Kutchta is the guy to watch out of the WPIAL. 9:16 in track last spring seemingly out of nowhere, looks like he is continuing that momentum. Looks like Bobby Bishop will be a no show this year. Dan Davis is the guy to watch early in North Penn camp, MacCauley doesn't look too sharp right now but he didn't look sharp early last season either. Lastly the young guys are making some big noise whether it is Smathers and Groh disappointing in their debuts, or Shearn and Jaskowak with big wins. Jaskowak really ran awesome ,but ill reserve judgement on his season until I see a little more. He was the biggest mover in the rankings this week.
XC Top 50- 9/11
1. Dustin Wilson
2. Sam Hibbs
3. Quinn Devlin
4. Alex Moran
5. Logan Steiner
6. Andrew Kutchta
7. Daniel Jaskowak
8. Ned Willig
9. Brendan Shearn
10. Connor Stynkowski
11. Brett Kelly
12. Aaron Wilkinson
13. LJ Westwood
14. Max Norris
15. Connor Quinn
16. Mac Emery
17. Drew Magaha
18. John Ausel
19. Jeff Seelaus
20. Jack MacCauly
21. Ryan Smathers
22. Brent Kennedy
23. Dan Davis
24. Connor Harriman
25. Ean Disilvio
26. Korey Replogle
27. Sami Aziz
28. Dylan Mountian
29. Matthew Croft
30. Mike Runco
31. Jeff Groh
32. Luke Jones
33. Chris Muldoon
34. Sam Williams
35. Nate Kreider
36. Francis Ferruzzi
37. Curt Jewett
38. Jake Seigel
39. Tom Coyle
40. Zach Moon
41. Owen Glatts
42. Dan Savage
43. Alex Kane
44. Lawtin Tillin
45. Mike Billotta
46. Sean Burke
47. Tim Flanagan
48. Kenny Leidel
49. Tim Appman
50. Nate Palmer
2. Sam Hibbs
3. Quinn Devlin
4. Alex Moran
5. Logan Steiner
6. Andrew Kutchta
7. Daniel Jaskowak
8. Ned Willig
9. Brendan Shearn
10. Connor Stynkowski
11. Brett Kelly
12. Aaron Wilkinson
13. LJ Westwood
14. Max Norris
15. Connor Quinn
16. Mac Emery
17. Drew Magaha
18. John Ausel
19. Jeff Seelaus
20. Jack MacCauly
21. Ryan Smathers
22. Brent Kennedy
23. Dan Davis
24. Connor Harriman
25. Ean Disilvio
26. Korey Replogle
27. Sami Aziz
28. Dylan Mountian
29. Matthew Croft
30. Mike Runco
31. Jeff Groh
32. Luke Jones
33. Chris Muldoon
34. Sam Williams
35. Nate Kreider
36. Francis Ferruzzi
37. Curt Jewett
38. Jake Seigel
39. Tom Coyle
40. Zach Moon
41. Owen Glatts
42. Dan Savage
43. Alex Kane
44. Lawtin Tillin
45. Mike Billotta
46. Sean Burke
47. Tim Flanagan
48. Kenny Leidel
49. Tim Appman
50. Nate Palmer
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