Mid-Week Long Run

It's that time of the week when its hard to see the finish line through the trees, or should I say through the cornfields at Lehigh, and you would rather be searching up Paul Short results from 5 years ago than sitting at lunch talking to your friends. Well, ok bad example, but the point is, you need something to look forward to at the end of the week and for most of us thats race time. Although I personally don't race this week, there is some interesting action slated for this coming weekend and I thought I'd give you a little etrain flavored enthusiasm for what's ahead.

The meet I want to talk about for this weekend is the Briarwood Invitational at Belmont Plateau. Some guys got a sneak preview of what to expect from that course this past weekend at the 4xXC meet which featured a bunch of names on the rise like Tom Coyle, Max Norris, Francis Ferruzzi and Andrew Stone just to name a few. This weekend a few of those guys should be back, plus lots more talent from not just PA.

Its hard to believe that it has now been 4 years since I last ran in the Briarwood Invitational JV race. Honestly, the course is fun to run, but its a huge challenge. Sophomore me was more than satisfied running 19:20ish. It starts out with a tough grass hill right from the gun, a steep down hill loop into the first mile and then of course Parachute Hill which still haunts my nightmares. This course is used for the PCL guys a lot and it has to help mentally prepare you for the states course (even if it doesn't physically prepare you, running it a week out from the big dance).

But I'm a stat guy and the fact that the last number I threw at you was one of my own relatively insignificant high school times is eating away at my insides right now. Or that may have to do with the fact that I only had three bowls of cereal at breakfast this morning, rather than the five I had yesterday. I am so college.

So lets crunch numbers. In 2008, 4 years ago when I ran the course, Chris Bodary won the championship race and took down a very impressive course record that belonged to South Moreland's Chris Dugan (roughly 9 flat two miler) from his 1996 run. His time was 15:47.

But perhaps what was more interesting was considering the names and times behind Bodary. Norht Penn of course had their first break out race and began to build up their reputation for being a cross country power. Finishing 2nd was Zach Hoagland (15:49), 4th was Brad Miles (16:06, sophomore) and 10th was Zack Montijo (16:30). Ironically, by states the three completely flip flopped (Montijo, Miles, Hoagland) and Miles and Montijo dropped under 15:30 by Districts (Hoagland was at about the same time).

Meanwhile other individuals who were behind Bodary and the course record run probably do not wish they could trade places with him in retrospect. 3rd place finisher Dan Lowry ran just 16:06 but by November was the 12th place finisher at the Footlocker Regional, barely missing a trip to nationals. And oh yeah he split 4:12 on the DMR anchor leg indoors. So he did just fine.

In 7th place was a name you also might recoginize: Joe Rosa. His freshman year campaign was started off with a modest 16:27.

But Rosa would wait to really drop the hammer until the coming years where as a Sophomore in 2008 he reset the course record by a tiny bit (15:33.1 from it's 15:47 from the previous year, p.s. tiny bit was sarcasm). Then he managed to find a way to lower it by just a little more in 2009 (15:19.2). So yeah the kid could striaght roll. Hes graduated now so I don't expect any miracles to go down this year and watch the record get dropped again, but hey I guess you never know.

So what about some other big names times in past years on the course?
2008
3rd DeSabato, Sr FCS 15:47 (Top 20 at FL Regionals)
4th Keefe, Sr CRS 15:57 (Top 10 at Districts, No State Medal)
5th Miles, Jr NP 16:08 (7th at States)
6th Ivo Milic, Sr FCS 16:14 (Indoor State Champ in the Mile)
9th Sam Bernitt, Jr NP 16:18 (10th at States)
10th Chris O'Sullivan, Jr SJP 16:20 (24th at States)
24th Tom O'Kane, Jr LaSalle 16:48 (25th at States)
2009
3rd Miles, Sr NP 15:47 (1st at States and FL Regionals so I guess he did ok)
5th O'Sullivan, Sr SJP 16:14 (18th at States)
Sam Hibbs, So Hatboro Horsham 16:50 (12th at States)
2010
1st Tom Trainer, Sr LaSalle 16:10 (17th at States, 2nd Indoor 3000m)
3rd Chris Garrity, Sr O'Hara 16:24 (22nd at States)

So now for the tough part where the real analysts make their money. What do these numbers mean?

Well for one thing it means without the Rosa's times are going to be slower. Trainer wins in 2010 with a time good enough to land Ivo 6th 2 years earlier. But hey that's how things go, great runners graduate and move on and meets adjust, people step in. I can tell you that somebody usually emerges as a sleeper from a race like this such as O'Kane, Hibbs Bernitt and Garrity did with modest times and great states finishes. Someone like that should produce down the line. And at this meet there is firepower, but necessarily from the top PA finishers. Sure Miles won after his great performance here, but look at guys like Bodary and Hoagland and Keefe under 16 minutes but not finishing at States the way they started. Meanwhile Dan Lowry and Zack Montijo were pinning their ears back at states and districts and regionals and making noise when it counted.

Overall you can't read too much into results from this point in the season but I have to think Sam Hibbs is going to either assert himself as a state title contender at a race like this. There shouldn't be too deep of a field although I have heard teams like Great Valley may show up that would definitely shake things up. Admittedly Hibbs and Quinn (17:20 on this course last year, took 20th at states) were at the Division One race, not the Championship race every year since I have followed the meet (i.e. Hatboro Horsham was) so that could definitely complicate the matter.

I'm excited to get a feel for how these returning state medalist do, the Great Valley guys (if they finally have anything close to a full team) and some of the LaSalle and O'Hara youngsters who know this course and have something to prove.

One thing is for sure if O'Hara wins big, we will probably hear about how no one picked them to win. Bummer.