Hibbs and Kutcha

So here's my thoughts on this little match up of man power right here. First of all I have to admit that a part of me made this move because I was getting bored with the rankings the way they were and wanted to spice things up a little bit. I did the same thing last year around this point when I moved Endress over Gil the week before Carlisle. Does that discredit the rankings a little bit, yes, of course it does. But I do have an arguement behind my reasoning (which most of you will probably not agree with, but hopefully at least respect).

So here we go. First off I want to say why Sam Hibbs is still my pick to win states in about a month. And yes he is still my pick to win even if the rankings don't reflect that. As I have said before these are right now rankings and right now my gut says Kutcha but if I was a betting man I'd bet on Hibbs for the long haul. Here's why.

For starter's Hibbs is the top returner from last year, the top returner from the 2 mile at states (98% sure anyway) and he is undefeated thus far this XC season. He comes from a great historic program and family that already has a footlocker finalist to their name and he has one of the best training partners in the state in Conner Quinn. He peaked at the right time each of the past two years and has excelled on hillier courses. He is consistent and there are no clear weaknesses in his running.

So the obvious question is now, what could possibly be wrong with the guy. My reason, as said above, you will probably be very unimpressed with, is the "wow" factor. When I saw Ben Furcht's opening season result's two years ago, I knew he was going to do something big. When I saw Tarsnane run his 3200s at Districts and States junior year, you knew he'd have a big XC season in the fall. When Ryan Gil broke free and ran 9:03 in the 3200m he was an obvious favorite for gold. I've seen a lot of performances that have made me say wow this season, however, none of them have been from Hibbs. Part of this is of course the fact that most people expect him to win and he does, but it is the way he is winning that is different. He won the prestates meet with a time slower than what it took to win the Blue race (not by much but is Sam Williams on the same level as Sam Hibbs? Not in these rankings and certainly not by most people's estimate's on penntrack). He didn't race Dustin Wilson at Briarwood (talk about a wow race) and easily won his race in a time comparable to Ned Willig's time, only Ned was doing it literally all alone (much more of a wow race for me).

So why Kutcha then? Well Kutcha has run a big wow race before (somewhere around 9:16-9:18 for the 3200m last spring) and that really launched him onto the scene. He wasn't a big name last spring like Hibbs, he hasn't had all the talk or state medals or anything like that. He is only just now experiencing and learning how to run on the big scene. He was shadowed by guys like Bobby Bishop and Matt Cecala and TJ Hobart and Dennis Logan and Paul Degregorio and the list goes on, but now he's the guy for the first time (unlike Hibbs whose been the guy since Sophomore year). So that will take time to learn the ropes. Solid race at Gateway Invite to start the season (course record I believe) finishes just behind Moran at RWB and fairly far behind Jaskowak but within striking distance. Then he just destroyed a field (a weak field but all the same) at Maymont this past weekend and looked like he was heading up while Moran and Steiner took a sharp dip the other way.

The only other guy who I could have seen realistically usurping Hibbs for the #2 spot is Jaskowak because Willig hasn't raced enough and Devlin hasn't raced period (besides a couple dual meets I heard about). But for me, despite amazing numbers, I can't quite feel comfortable posting up Jaskowak at #2. Its so early to be running this fast with seemingly no previous accomplishments to suggest a jump like this (besides training with Jacob Kildoo for a couple seasons). So for me I need just a tiny bit more proof that the guy isn't peaking too early. Hey he's a very, very close #5 right now so obviously I think the guy is good.

Overall, Hibbs is still the favorite for states without a doubt. No one has one states after not at least medaling the year before (this is on the AAA side folks) since another Baldwin guy way back in 2001 (i think) named Dan Mazzacco. Hebda couldn't do it last year, Furcht before him and the list goes on.

Should be fun to find out.

-train