Burdette Bros

So Magaha didn't look like Drew and Haneef Hardy gave up on the 800 a little faster than I expected, a 2:01 followed by a quick trip to the 200 at Burdette, but hey the kid will be good we will see. Magaha. Well. I don't know what happened exactly to him, maybe sickness, but if he can solo 1:54 flat track in flats than at the Armory he should be 1:51. Maybe he left himself too much ground and than gave up and didn't put in the furious kick? Well who knows but that's enough about him and enough about that meet, we are talking Burdette now friends!

So first we will talk about that pesky 800 where I saw Mike Palmisano, Paul Reilly, Alex Sheltzer and Hong Cho win the past 4. I was at all of those races and one thing I can say is that none of the winning times were under 1:58 but all those guys ended up being 1:54 or better by the time all was said and done. I like Horgan a lot this year, obviously 3:09 on that DMR in December is great BUT he just ran hard in that DMR and we will see if he has enough left to beat this field.

If Damiani stays fresh for the 8 and doesn't run the mile, he's a sleeper here. He ran 1:55 very quietly a year ago outdoors and he is a talented runner. Jake DeLehman ran a 1:57 at the meet of champions race a year ago and looked like a sleeper at states last year, but he didn't pull through. Sam Brooks has been hot and the SOL american league has quite a nice record of medals at this meet. W, W, 3rd and 4th, W. Perhaps a little biased here but Brooks is my pick to win in sleeper fashion.
1. Brooks 1:59.5
2. Horgan 1:59.8
3. DeLehman 2:00.8
4. Damiani 2:01.9
5. Willis 2:02.9

On to the mile now with Nico Metzler front running the field. He ran a nice 800 the other night and its hard to imagine him not coming back and running strong again. Field doesn't look deep enough to make a record push, but it should give some runners a chance to show case their talent. DeLehman and Damiani are both entered in this race as well, but something tells me they will bail and just go 800. But we will see about that. A couple guys with fast new 3k prs also are in the field in Ernie Pitone and Will McDermott. A 9:07 is no joke for 3k, so I like Pitone as a sleeper here. Pete Downs isn't a bad Xc guy, we will see how that translates over. Here's my picks:
1. Metzler 4:36.7
2. Pitone 4:37.8
3. Kardish 4:38.8
4. McDermott 4:39.4
5. Mullin 4:40.9

To the 3k. #Stacked. Yeah we are talking debuts at the 3k for Kelly, Willig and Wilson, all guys who were on my early watch list to mix it up for a 3k title. Now technically speaking Willig is the returning champion, but I think Wilson and Willig both remember Dillon Farrell running them down after they controlled a big lead for most of the 2nd half of the race. Only a Farrell disqualification kept him from being a surprise two time champion.

Brett Kelly is a front runner and he goes hard from the gun often, so is he next in the line to be run down in the final straightaway? Willig I think is in the best shape out of the group right now and I think if he runs smart (and the kid is going to Brown so ...) he will take down the victory. I got Brett Kelly surprising for second and Dustin Wilson not quite being back yet. He's a great runner don't get me wrong, but to expect him to beat two top runners who are in great racing shape when Wilson hasn't run this kinda pace in a while is tough.

Hey in theory I could even see Wilson at 4th or 5th, this field is very deep. I like Max Norris a lot. I haven't seen him race yet either, which worries me a bit, but he has at least not been XC training and racing into December.

And wait there's more! Francis Ferruzzi who hung tough with Kelly in the mile last time and ran 9:17 first week back after regionals, Zach Israel who has been hot although he has raced a lot and in longer races like the anchor of the DMR and the mile a week ago at the association meet so tired legs may be a factor. I like Israel as the season goes, not on board for this specific race. Than there is Billotta who looks to keep the O'Hara 3k gold streak alive with a win here at Burdette, state champion Dan Davis from a strong North Penn squad and Chris Berry who is an up and coming CB West runner who ran a 9:24 victory 3k early in the season.

This top 5 is easily the toughest to pick for me, but here's what I got.
1. Willig 8:55
2. Kelly 8:58
3. Wilson 8:59
4. Norris 9:10
5. Billotta 9:12

Now I'll talk briefly about the relays but this will be mostly speculation. First off it looks like Hibbs and Quinn are making their long awaited debut in the DMR, which may also feature A teams from North Penn, Strath Haven and Cardinal O'Hara. Haven't seen Savage yet this season, he's not on the entries, so maybe he will be running the DMR maybe he's hurt. We will see. I think North Penn and Strath Haven will go hot again, the Haven has kinda danced this dance before the last two weeks but with spikes on I am sure they want to get the states monkey off their back. I can't see Horsham winning in their first races back. We will see, they have a chance to prove me wrong, but I like the state champs North Penn to come out fast. If the 12 legs keep it moving, say Hibbs goes out hard through 800, Trimble could run very fast with fresh spiked legs. MacCauley also very talented on the anchor leg. Can't underestimate Strath Haven, they have potential to be under 10:50, they are clearly looking to hit that mark, I've got 1. North Penn 2. Strath Haven 3. Hatboro.

As for the 4x800, I have a sinking feeling it's going to be slow. I think North Penn will not run that hot which opens the door for CB South and Penncrest to take it down. I've learned in the past not to underestimate the squad from CB South, we will see if they surprise again with a fast time here at Burdette, but I'm not sure how much depth they have at 800. Dickson will have to get back to the shape he was in when he ran 1:56 or so last year. I think Penncrest has got a shot to make noise but I think they will take second behind CB South. Beyond that it is tough to predict but I suppose O'Hara and North Penn sneak in their for the next two spots although this race shouldnt be anything too fast.

-train