Alright so I enjoy the PTXC rankings and I like seeing the opinion of a team of guys who follow the sport at least fairly closely (hard to say how closely they follow it in comparison to me, but that is besides the point). Last year when I looked at the rankings my immediate criticism (which I expressed in a post as my alter ego etrain69 last year, can't prove it because the account got deleted, but again besides the point) was that the boys over at North Penn were ranked too low. The potential, at the least in the preseason, for this team to win a state championship was clear.
This year out front can't disagree with their 1-2 punch. At Briarwood, Henderson has the chance to unseat the big dogs, but until then there is no reason to rank them higher than O'Hara. I may get some backlash from all the Henderson fans for saying that, but hey, the title is not won in the rankings. This isn't college football.
After that things get a little fuzzier. Now I am aware that I made some team rankings earlier in the summer, but honestly I have gone back on a lot of those after looking more stats over and such and a bunch of my team opinions have kind of been altered. So bare with me if it seems I am contradicting myself (because I kind of am).
Honestly don't think LaSalle deserves the 3 spot here. Yes Coyle is very good and like I have said to many people, he could have had XC gold if he raced a little bit more strategically at Hershey last fall. He should give them a score around 1 or 2 out front. However, after that they have Magee and Stone, both solid track seasons and solid XC seasons, but far from proven XC talents. They are well coached and have some nice pieces to round out their top 5, but how they managed to snag more votes than CRN is beyond me.
CRN's top 3 is superior to LaSalle's and although I don't agree with these arguments, I'm sure there are people out there that believe Mac Emery will be better than Coyle this year on the trails. After that I think it is hard to deny Wilson and Zingarini's superiority to Stone and Magee (as of right now) based on their proven ability over 5000m. CRN is very well coached in their own right, and I would be very surprised if they didn't have a 4-5 punch that was solid.
Also CRN is essentially a lock to go to states and right now LaSalle is practically a lock not to go. Unfortunate circumstances and probably shouldn't play a role in the rankings, but just thought I'd mention it.
After that I'm sorry Mt. Lebo fans, you guys probably your 3 best runners and I don't see a whole lot that points to a top 5 season this year. Definitely can't see them beating North Allegheny and I have a soft spot for Kiski this year. I feel Lebo is ranked too high as well.
As a result, that makes me feel NA is too low. They are always very good and if I'm a betting man, I'd say they will win the WPIALs this year and be top 5 in the state without even looking at their roster at all. Having seen their roster, they will be a little young, but its hard to say they don't return enough talent to compete late in the season. If they had had a better day from their youngsters last November they would have been state champs (but you could make that argument for a lot of teams, that's the way the cookie crumbles often times).
Great Valley lost their most important piece last year in Ned Willig. They have some solid pieces like the younger Willig, but I am not sure how this team ended up ranked ahead of North Penn. North Penn was the state champs last year! They return a solid group of guys from that team and their most important piece, Jack Macauley, had his best track season thus far compared to his classmates. North Penn has some solid senior leadership and Great Valley has a bunch of younger guys who may still be a year away from being talented enough to help this team compete at the top level. Great Valley has also underwhelmed on the challenging state course the past couple years. Maybe they are going to surprise me (Demetrius may come on and drop the stat hammer) but to rank Great Valley without Willig above the defending champs? Hard for me to wrap my head around.
I'm happy with Cumby and Kiski pretty much. Both I think are better than Lebo, but I think both deserve to be on this list and both are solid teams who I can't see winning a state title but could possibly sneak into the top 5 teams in the state if they have their day at the right time. Cumby especially has potential. CV hasn't won Districts in a while (I think, didn't check the stat but I don't think they have since at least like 2007, maybe not since Fuller in like 04, Idk what Manheim looked like, but again, besides the point) and they are due for a title. Kiski is still kind of young, but Kennedy doesn't run like a youngster. It won't hurt your team score at WPIALs if you have the individual champ.
A and AA
So I won't pretend I have consistently or thoroughly crunched the numbers for either classification. Penntrack has a bit of a preview up so if you want more in depth stuff feel free to go there. But I'll give you my two senses on the subject right now.
A
The A race is pretty stacked out front despite being such a small group of schools. Luke Jones is definitely the favorite after a good spring and a great states race last fall, however, Ryan Smathers looks poised to take a leap towards next level XC running. The guy really got going on the track and was definitely in the same league as Huemmler and Coyle, perhaps even better than those guys (I personally see a strong argument for it). Then you throw in Rico Galassi who was just off the front group at states last year and exploded as a big name runner after his spring campaign. Those two guys have all the momentum right now and although Jones's strength is the trails, he has his hands full with these two guys.
And that isn't even counting guys like Sam Williams and Curt Jewett who also had fantastic springs. Williams has always performed well at the state course, while Jewett has struggled immensley at Hershey. If he can find the magic at the states' course this year, he could snag a state title. I feel strongly that any of the runners I just mentioned could win state gold if they have their day at the state meet. That's what makes this field so excited.
Also worth noting are guys like Jordan Jackson, the Archer twins, Hunter Johnson, and Kelby Mullen who have all had their fair share of top performances in AA competition.
The big sleeper here is Barrett Kemp. I had very high hopes for Kemp last season at states, he seemed on the verge of a break out race. He may not have had quite as good of a finish to his year as projected, but considering how little competition he faces year round in district 9 AA, with the right training and race strategies this year he could really surprise and become a big name in the state. Kemp ran 15:30 for 3 miles last year, beating Jewett, Smathers and Williams in the process, at the McQuaid invite.
AA
To me AA is interesting because of the Shearn v. Jaskowak battle out front. I'd say Shearn is the front runner right now because he has won essentially every big race on PA soil he has had to run his last few times out. He looks like he is going to challenge himself all season at the big time invitationals which makes him an experienced threat for states and nationals. Cap on a sub 15 minute 5k, and the guy looks very good going into this fall. Jaskowak, however, had a killer track season where he showed he was versatile from 800m through 3200m running a 9:14 in brutal weather with a big kick. He also ran 1:55 for 800m which gives him nice finishing speed on the XC trails. I underestimated him all last season and it turned out to backfire on me. If he wasn't stuck by the curse of non medalists not winning gold last season, he may have been able to take Quinn at Hershey. He just needed a little experience at the top. At Northeast Regionals he beat Shearn and Quinn and showed his potential to be the top XC guy this fall.
But there will be other interesting names to watch in this race. The big names who I can see are guys like Vinny Todaro, a top finisher from District 3 and just off the AAA medal stand in 2011, Dominic Deluca, who was my big sleeper pick from Dallas all last season, I might have just been a year too early, and Christian Kardish who surpassed both Horgan and Israel this past track season and showed he is ready to come into his own for Holy Ghost Prep.
Then there are the returning AA boys to consider like Valerosa, Stelmack, Alexander, Hadfield, Sauvegaeu (butchered the spelling I'm sorry bud) and Wolfe. All those guys are medalists or near medalists last year and proven XC studs.
A couple deeper sleepers would be guys like Avery Scripture, who dropped a lot of time on the track this past spring and was in the 1:55ish range, Liam Corcoran who ran some very solid 3200m runs, and Ian Yakuso who has been a solid D1 AAA XC guy for a number of years now. Will McDermott from Bonner may also be a name to note in the PCL.
A
The A race is pretty stacked out front despite being such a small group of schools. Luke Jones is definitely the favorite after a good spring and a great states race last fall, however, Ryan Smathers looks poised to take a leap towards next level XC running. The guy really got going on the track and was definitely in the same league as Huemmler and Coyle, perhaps even better than those guys (I personally see a strong argument for it). Then you throw in Rico Galassi who was just off the front group at states last year and exploded as a big name runner after his spring campaign. Those two guys have all the momentum right now and although Jones's strength is the trails, he has his hands full with these two guys.
And that isn't even counting guys like Sam Williams and Curt Jewett who also had fantastic springs. Williams has always performed well at the state course, while Jewett has struggled immensley at Hershey. If he can find the magic at the states' course this year, he could snag a state title. I feel strongly that any of the runners I just mentioned could win state gold if they have their day at the state meet. That's what makes this field so excited.
Also worth noting are guys like Jordan Jackson, the Archer twins, Hunter Johnson, and Kelby Mullen who have all had their fair share of top performances in AA competition.
The big sleeper here is Barrett Kemp. I had very high hopes for Kemp last season at states, he seemed on the verge of a break out race. He may not have had quite as good of a finish to his year as projected, but considering how little competition he faces year round in district 9 AA, with the right training and race strategies this year he could really surprise and become a big name in the state. Kemp ran 15:30 for 3 miles last year, beating Jewett, Smathers and Williams in the process, at the McQuaid invite.
AA
To me AA is interesting because of the Shearn v. Jaskowak battle out front. I'd say Shearn is the front runner right now because he has won essentially every big race on PA soil he has had to run his last few times out. He looks like he is going to challenge himself all season at the big time invitationals which makes him an experienced threat for states and nationals. Cap on a sub 15 minute 5k, and the guy looks very good going into this fall. Jaskowak, however, had a killer track season where he showed he was versatile from 800m through 3200m running a 9:14 in brutal weather with a big kick. He also ran 1:55 for 800m which gives him nice finishing speed on the XC trails. I underestimated him all last season and it turned out to backfire on me. If he wasn't stuck by the curse of non medalists not winning gold last season, he may have been able to take Quinn at Hershey. He just needed a little experience at the top. At Northeast Regionals he beat Shearn and Quinn and showed his potential to be the top XC guy this fall.
But there will be other interesting names to watch in this race. The big names who I can see are guys like Vinny Todaro, a top finisher from District 3 and just off the AAA medal stand in 2011, Dominic Deluca, who was my big sleeper pick from Dallas all last season, I might have just been a year too early, and Christian Kardish who surpassed both Horgan and Israel this past track season and showed he is ready to come into his own for Holy Ghost Prep.
Then there are the returning AA boys to consider like Valerosa, Stelmack, Alexander, Hadfield, Sauvegaeu (butchered the spelling I'm sorry bud) and Wolfe. All those guys are medalists or near medalists last year and proven XC studs.
A couple deeper sleepers would be guys like Avery Scripture, who dropped a lot of time on the track this past spring and was in the 1:55ish range, Liam Corcoran who ran some very solid 3200m runs, and Ian Yakuso who has been a solid D1 AAA XC guy for a number of years now. Will McDermott from Bonner may also be a name to note in the PCL.
etrain's Top 10 Pre Championship Season Meets
So as the season approaches, I am really excited to see how a lot of things go. So I took a little time in my brief period in between classes to construct a little top 10 list in order of when the meets occur. Here we go:
John Sharp Viking Invitational 8/31
Yeah the course is absurdly short, but it is cool to see guys running times that look really fast and it is cool to start getting excited about racing in August. It doesn't mean much who is extremely fit at this point of the season, however, it can show you who some break out stars are going to be. Scarpello, Magaha, Harriman all had stand out races at this meet in the past before they became XC household names and this year the field is projected to be quite deep. CRNorth has an excellent top 3 rolling in led by Emery who is a big name to watch this year off his 9:11. We will see how it translates to the trials. CB West's Chris Berry is another sleeper to watch in this race off his low 9:20s 3200m. Christian Kardish as well should be fun to watch as HGPrep is usually rolling pretty well in the early season. Throw in guys like Conner Quinn and Connor Harriman this race should be very fun. Deep sleeper pick will be Joey Logue from Pennridge if he can translate that track speed to the trials in any way. He did run a very solid 1600 for a guy most thought was a quarter miler early in his career.
Red White and Blue Invitational 9/8
Speaking of fast times on fast courses ... There is nothing like seeing all the big guns in the WPIAL at one time. I want to see what NA and Lebo have left and if Kiski is going to legitimately challenge for the top spot in the WPIAL. There are lots of young studs in the WPIAL roster. Wakely, Martin, some AA guys, Seel, Luoco, etc. Baldwin's guys hopefully can bounce back as well like George Kelly. The WPIAL has become the clear 2nd best district in the state and we get to see all the big names at one time at this race, which we never see in the other districts. Also Dan Jaskowak should be there to defend his title. That in itself should be enough to get tickets.
PTXC 9/8
PTXC this year is quite exciting because it is finally starting to draw top talent to the event. Endress a couple years back helped the cause a bit but a Shearn v. Quinn match up already is enough to make me interested. Its the match up many wanted a year ago at the Hershey course but never got. Shearn is a top ranked runner nationally and is facing his biggest test in his impressive career with Jaskowak looming at the state meet. Let the AA v. AAA conversation begin about who is better after the meet in September. We also may see the likes of Harrison Schettler, Sam Williams and Curt Jewett, Jeff Groh and Cole Nissley, and Alec Kunzweiler and the Cumberland Valley squad. One of these runners may step up and beat Quinn or Shearn and throw themselves into state title contender. All of these runners are on big upswings after their spring/2011 fall.
Quad XC Invitational 9/8
This is a little known meet, but it is one of my favorite races to participate in (mostly because the prizes are absurdly nice). The interesting thing about this meet is we could potentially see Henderson and LaSalle competing in the relay races. You rarely see relay races like this at the XC level and it speaks a lot to the depth of teams (cue the Henderson comments), but it certainly will show what kind of pieces each team has. LaSalle's stacked front 4 relay could win the title if Henderson spreads out their pieces. It should be a good test. GA may be back again this season which means we could see the Ritz boys and we also may see the GFS squad which features Wistar and Aziz. Both independent groups have high expectations this year. Lastly, I want to see how my UD boys do in one of their first races. Sorry, I'm biased.
Briarwood Invitational 9/15
Lots of hype around the Briarwood meet, at this very tough course, which should feature O'Hara, one of the state title favorites, at their "home course" of sorts. Also the defending state champions North Penn should be in the race again and be competing for a top spot. North Penn lost by 45 points to O'Hara last year. Also on the radar are rumors that Brendan Shearn will be making the trip for this race. He would add a nice individual touch out front with Savage, Macauley, Emery and possibly Coyle and Quinn (Horsham often times doesn't enter the championship race). That is a star studded field of guys with a lot of hardware. CR North will look to prove they can run with O'Hara out front and be state title contenders. Wilson, Zingarini and Berry (from CB West) are also factors in this race, as are the rest of O'Hara's top 5 with guys like James, Pitone, Pastore and Smart.
Pre States 9/22
Watching O'Hara on the states course should be plenty of fun. Plus we may see the defending state Champion Conner Quinn in action on a course where he has had a lot of success. Connor Harriman ran very well at this meet last year and may contend for the title. The Northeast Bradford boys headline a group of very solid AA and A guys projected to be in the race, including Ryan Smathers in his first big meet. If Lebo comes back they will be an interesting team to watch. And anytime you can see guys on the states course it is fun stuff.
Paul Short 9/28
Assuming the weather is nice, fast times should come in bunches. It is great to see guys just fly on this course. It will be interesting to see who opts for Paul Short over Carlisle because guys like Shearn ran both last year. But we should see the Ritz's back again, maybe the Great Valley boys and the Cumberland Valley boys as well. That includes Alec Kunzweiler, potential D3 champion. The environment at this kind of meet is electric and it is a must see almost regardless of the field.
Carlisle 9/29
Carlisle in the past has produced some unbelievably deep fields. Last year they didn't quite as much and with Paul Short the same weekend it is going to be interesting to see who goes where. Guys like Tom Coyle and Kunzweiler went to both places, same with Shearn. I hope Carlisle stacks the field as North Penn and North Allegheny should both be there and they are both top teams in the state. Horsham has gone to this meet in the past as well so we could be having another Quinn v. Shearn conversation. Also Grove City has attended this meet before which could mean the ultimate showdown of Coyle, Quinn, Shearn and Jaskowak. Mark your calendars.
Salesianum Invitational 10/6
In Delaware it should be interesting to see if North Penn can begin to round into form on a hilly, state like, course. Quinn should be there as well to match up with Macauley and we may also see the Holy Ghost Prep guys like Kardish in the mix. Not my favorite of the 10 meets I listed, but still something to keep an eye on against out of state competition. We may also catch a glimpse of Brehm in XC from Carlisle.
Manhattan Invitational 10/13
I always like seeing what we have on a national level. Any PA guys who hop in this meet and run well are national qualifier contenders. The guy that comes to mind immeaditely is Coyle, but Quinn may be in this meet again, Horsham has come here in year's past. So too has North Penn, the defending state champs. It is a bit of a wild card meet as to who will actually be in attendance, but we can learn a lot about PA's national contenders on October 13th.
Battle of the Henderson Boys: Tony Russell v Reiny Barchet
Alright so I just want to throw this out there again, I feel that these comments are great, I enjoy reading everyone's opinions on the subjects at hand. However, I think the best way to stimulate conversations is through a forum rather than these comments. I think tracktalk and even penntrack may be better ways to hash out these issues. I'll read up on either of those sources over the next two weeks and feel free to link up the posts to the forums. You can comment also on here still if you disagree with me. I have no problem with that but it is a little tougher for me to moderate certain things because unfortunately during camp week at Muhlenberg this week I'm not going to have a lot of time.
That also means I probably won't do this argument great justice, but I'll give it my best shot.
I'm also a tiny bit nervous because I know Tony reads the blog, at least a little bit ...
We will start in 2010 because, unfortunately for Barchet, that is the last time both boys were on the XC course together. Barchet as a freshman was one of the key contributors on Henderson's runner up squad with a 16:05 D1 performance and finished 63rd at states. It was a very impressive performance for a freshman. At District One freshman rarely finish in the top 20 and excluding Ned Willig's freshman year where the times were absurdly fast, freshman rarely run as fast as Barchet did. These facts alone show a ton of potential down the line.
In 2010 Barchet was 29 seconds ahead of Russell at the District meet (Russell won the JV race in one of the fastest JV race times I've ever seen 16:34).
But Russell took the momentum of winning the JV race and carried it all the way through into a healthy 2011 XC season that Barchet, unfortunately couldn't match. Russell dropped a 15:43 and just missed a middle at his first big time individual states race. He was one of the top sophomores in the race and the difference between sophomore medalists and junior medalists is usually the largest class difference medal wise. If Russell didn't snag a medal in the 2012 season I'd be very surprised.
Barchet normally would scare me with an injury like that. Think Brad Miles junior year, he finished a modest 7th at states, not as I had projected early in the season, 2nd place. I even thought a healthy Miles would have won that year. After seeing his Senior season I don't think that statement is out of bounds.
That being said Barchet did something Miles didn't do until late in his senior year, he broke 9:30 in the 3200m. Barchet's 9:28, almost out of nowhere, as just a sophomore. There are not many sophomore's who can boast a time like that at such an age. He seemed to be just rounding back into top form in time for his spring season to come to an end. Barchet should be in excellent shape this fall and I imagine that 9:28 is just the start of something big.
But Russell didn't have a bad spring either dropping into the 4:18s and running 9:31 in a race that had a field that underwhelmed. The dude is clearly holding his own. He has more speed than Barchet does and thus his strength will be Lehigh more so than Barchet. Admittedly, neither guy has given me a mind blowing performance at the most important course, Hershey. Both guys were fairly underwhelming there compared to the previous week.
The knock on Henderson will always end up being the state course. I'm sorry, I know they are probably sick of hearing that by now. But hopefully those guys use my words as motivation in practice everyday. That'd be pretty cool actually if Coach Kelly quoted me in practice. I'd be honored. So yeah do that.
But ultimately, I digress. It is a close battle, but I go Barchet at Hershey and Russell at Lehigh. Barchet has a crap ton of potential and I like the 3200m guys rather than the speed guys when I'm picking XC place winners so I see Barchet pulling it out. Both will be potential top 10 guys this year in the somewhat weaker AAA states race.
And of course both will potential have state gold around their neck .....
But we have talked plenty about that.
That also means I probably won't do this argument great justice, but I'll give it my best shot.
I'm also a tiny bit nervous because I know Tony reads the blog, at least a little bit ...
We will start in 2010 because, unfortunately for Barchet, that is the last time both boys were on the XC course together. Barchet as a freshman was one of the key contributors on Henderson's runner up squad with a 16:05 D1 performance and finished 63rd at states. It was a very impressive performance for a freshman. At District One freshman rarely finish in the top 20 and excluding Ned Willig's freshman year where the times were absurdly fast, freshman rarely run as fast as Barchet did. These facts alone show a ton of potential down the line.
In 2010 Barchet was 29 seconds ahead of Russell at the District meet (Russell won the JV race in one of the fastest JV race times I've ever seen 16:34).
But Russell took the momentum of winning the JV race and carried it all the way through into a healthy 2011 XC season that Barchet, unfortunately couldn't match. Russell dropped a 15:43 and just missed a middle at his first big time individual states race. He was one of the top sophomores in the race and the difference between sophomore medalists and junior medalists is usually the largest class difference medal wise. If Russell didn't snag a medal in the 2012 season I'd be very surprised.
Barchet normally would scare me with an injury like that. Think Brad Miles junior year, he finished a modest 7th at states, not as I had projected early in the season, 2nd place. I even thought a healthy Miles would have won that year. After seeing his Senior season I don't think that statement is out of bounds.
That being said Barchet did something Miles didn't do until late in his senior year, he broke 9:30 in the 3200m. Barchet's 9:28, almost out of nowhere, as just a sophomore. There are not many sophomore's who can boast a time like that at such an age. He seemed to be just rounding back into top form in time for his spring season to come to an end. Barchet should be in excellent shape this fall and I imagine that 9:28 is just the start of something big.
But Russell didn't have a bad spring either dropping into the 4:18s and running 9:31 in a race that had a field that underwhelmed. The dude is clearly holding his own. He has more speed than Barchet does and thus his strength will be Lehigh more so than Barchet. Admittedly, neither guy has given me a mind blowing performance at the most important course, Hershey. Both guys were fairly underwhelming there compared to the previous week.
The knock on Henderson will always end up being the state course. I'm sorry, I know they are probably sick of hearing that by now. But hopefully those guys use my words as motivation in practice everyday. That'd be pretty cool actually if Coach Kelly quoted me in practice. I'd be honored. So yeah do that.
But ultimately, I digress. It is a close battle, but I go Barchet at Hershey and Russell at Lehigh. Barchet has a crap ton of potential and I like the 3200m guys rather than the speed guys when I'm picking XC place winners so I see Barchet pulling it out. Both will be potential top 10 guys this year in the somewhat weaker AAA states race.
And of course both will potential have state gold around their neck .....
But we have talked plenty about that.
The Big Question: Henderson v. O'Hara
Look its obvious now that I'm not gonna have a consistent post flow at this point in the year, but once the season starts up and there are actually races and more data to digest I imagine that the posts will begin to flow in the same way they had in the past seasons. If you don't want to believe in that I don't blame you, its been a rough month for posts.
But for now, although I don't have too much new to stay, I can at least try and fuel the fire which has been keeping this blog going. I'm going to throw out my thoughts on the O'Hara v. Henderson debate.
The only reason O'Hara isn't defending champions is depth. They didn't have a 6th man to step up and fill in when misfortune struck on course at which misfortune almost always strikes. So therefore the key in 2012 will be improving depth. The group peaked at the right time, knew how to run the states course and had plenty of talent. Those were not factors in the upset at states in 2012 and I'm sorry to say I strongly disagree with anyone who wants to argue that point.
The main reason Henderson isn't defending state champions is age. A lot of things come with age, not just wisdom and experience but also strength. I'm pretty sure Henderson is a program built on mileage and the older you get the more mileage you can handle and the more mileage you have handled in the past. That will certainly boost Henderson's young squad which still features mostly non seniors. And of course the whole "running poorly at states" thing should hopefully be thrown out the window. Henderson is well coached and they clearly have a bunch of talent. And perhaps their biggest strength is their depth ironically.
They have great depth, but if people try to tell me that their 8-14 guys could make states I'm going to upset. To make states out of District One you need a very, very solid squad. Last year 16:35 average per man got you to states. Henderson had 6 guys under 16:40 last year. I also feel like this is one of the deepest fields D1 has had in a while.
I think O'Hara has improved their depth. It looked like they had a solid amount of young guys in that 10 mile race. It doesn't mean much I know, but it is certainly a good sign. They picked up Smart and they had a freshman last year who broke 16 minutes and ran 17:24 at the states course in September so there is reason to believe their very young guys can be contributors in the 5-7 spot. That was what they were lacking last year. I'm a big Nick Smart fan. I think in the O'Hara system with training partners like he has, he can have a big season. However, he was in the 16:20s last year at Lehigh which would barely put him on the varsity squad for Henderson last year (if Chaborek had a solid day at Districts Smart probably would have been 8th on Henderson's roster).
O'Hara ran the pre-states meet this past year, usually a big no no in my book, but it clearly paid off. Besides James who ran 17:24 as mentioned above, their remaining 6 members of their top 7 dropped 213 seconds from Hershey to the state meet. So a total plus minus of 193 seconds when you count in James. Compare that to Mt. Lebanon, the 2nd place pre states team. 113 points through the 6 guys that ran varsity at both meets. O'Hara took advantage of the hilly courses and their hilly schedule which includes Belmont Plateau. PCL teams have always performed well at the state meet because of this schedule, LaSalle in the past few years has had crazy spreads and beat NA the year they made nationals and of course O'Hara the past two years has done very well as well.
Unfortunately we won't see much of Henderson's cards until later in the season. Their first real race was October 1st in New Jersey. They didn't run against PA competition until championship season.
On the track, I'll be honest, Henderson really dominated. Pitone had a good year, he has come on strong and the other O'Hara returners had solid years. I was pretty impressed with Savage's 3200m at States in brutal weather which is the small exception. Henderson meanwhile had guys showing serious improvements highlighted by Russell and Barchet but also including AJ Chaborek and Rimkis.
But O'Hara had a similar spring in 2011 and they came back better than ever in XC. So good sign for Henderson but not necessarily a bad sign for O'Hara.
So let's get to down to business here. Before the season starts, I'm going to give you my pick right now. In dual meet scoring here is how I see Henderson and O'Hara placing against one another at the end of the season. A lot can (and will) change in my thinking, but just so that my opinion is out there, here it goes.
24-31 O'Hara over Henderson
But I'm just one man. Comment away with your thoughts.
But for now, although I don't have too much new to stay, I can at least try and fuel the fire which has been keeping this blog going. I'm going to throw out my thoughts on the O'Hara v. Henderson debate.
The only reason O'Hara isn't defending champions is depth. They didn't have a 6th man to step up and fill in when misfortune struck on course at which misfortune almost always strikes. So therefore the key in 2012 will be improving depth. The group peaked at the right time, knew how to run the states course and had plenty of talent. Those were not factors in the upset at states in 2012 and I'm sorry to say I strongly disagree with anyone who wants to argue that point.
The main reason Henderson isn't defending state champions is age. A lot of things come with age, not just wisdom and experience but also strength. I'm pretty sure Henderson is a program built on mileage and the older you get the more mileage you can handle and the more mileage you have handled in the past. That will certainly boost Henderson's young squad which still features mostly non seniors. And of course the whole "running poorly at states" thing should hopefully be thrown out the window. Henderson is well coached and they clearly have a bunch of talent. And perhaps their biggest strength is their depth ironically.
They have great depth, but if people try to tell me that their 8-14 guys could make states I'm going to upset. To make states out of District One you need a very, very solid squad. Last year 16:35 average per man got you to states. Henderson had 6 guys under 16:40 last year. I also feel like this is one of the deepest fields D1 has had in a while.
I think O'Hara has improved their depth. It looked like they had a solid amount of young guys in that 10 mile race. It doesn't mean much I know, but it is certainly a good sign. They picked up Smart and they had a freshman last year who broke 16 minutes and ran 17:24 at the states course in September so there is reason to believe their very young guys can be contributors in the 5-7 spot. That was what they were lacking last year. I'm a big Nick Smart fan. I think in the O'Hara system with training partners like he has, he can have a big season. However, he was in the 16:20s last year at Lehigh which would barely put him on the varsity squad for Henderson last year (if Chaborek had a solid day at Districts Smart probably would have been 8th on Henderson's roster).
O'Hara ran the pre-states meet this past year, usually a big no no in my book, but it clearly paid off. Besides James who ran 17:24 as mentioned above, their remaining 6 members of their top 7 dropped 213 seconds from Hershey to the state meet. So a total plus minus of 193 seconds when you count in James. Compare that to Mt. Lebanon, the 2nd place pre states team. 113 points through the 6 guys that ran varsity at both meets. O'Hara took advantage of the hilly courses and their hilly schedule which includes Belmont Plateau. PCL teams have always performed well at the state meet because of this schedule, LaSalle in the past few years has had crazy spreads and beat NA the year they made nationals and of course O'Hara the past two years has done very well as well.
Unfortunately we won't see much of Henderson's cards until later in the season. Their first real race was October 1st in New Jersey. They didn't run against PA competition until championship season.
On the track, I'll be honest, Henderson really dominated. Pitone had a good year, he has come on strong and the other O'Hara returners had solid years. I was pretty impressed with Savage's 3200m at States in brutal weather which is the small exception. Henderson meanwhile had guys showing serious improvements highlighted by Russell and Barchet but also including AJ Chaborek and Rimkis.
But O'Hara had a similar spring in 2011 and they came back better than ever in XC. So good sign for Henderson but not necessarily a bad sign for O'Hara.
So let's get to down to business here. Before the season starts, I'm going to give you my pick right now. In dual meet scoring here is how I see Henderson and O'Hara placing against one another at the end of the season. A lot can (and will) change in my thinking, but just so that my opinion is out there, here it goes.
24-31 O'Hara over Henderson
But I'm just one man. Comment away with your thoughts.
Bill Gallagher 10 Miler
Brutally hot weather combined with about 7.5 miles on the sand doesn't really make a 10 miler all that appealing. However, some PA alumni and some of PA's up and coming talent ran in the 10 miler at Sea Isle City, where I stayed the weekend. Just figured I'd let you know how everyone did. Some early thoughts from me are that the O'Hara boys are working hard. 10 miles in that weather is no joke. Pitone and Pastore ran the whole way together and finished in the two spots ahead of me. Savage ran a good race up front. Dawson and McCandless are both Olympic Trials caliber athletes as a point of reference. McCandless ran very fast at both a half marathon and a full marathon, Dawson is best at the 10k, he's sub 30. Both are PA alumni. So here are those PA times: After about 30 I'm not sure if I missed any PA alumni or not so feel free to comment!
1. Tyler McCandless, Northampton Alum 54:38
2. Kyle Dawon, Coatseville Alum 54:54
4. John Pickhaver, St. Joe's Prep Alum 56:00
5. Dan Day, Landsdale Catholic Alum 56:42
6. Nick Scarpello, CB West Alum 56:52
9. Mike Garrity, O'Hara Alum 59:21
11. Phil Celona, Ryan Alum 59:23
14. James Murphy, St. Joe's Prep Alum 61:09
*18. Dan Savage, Cardinal O'Hara Senior 61:49
20. Dave Moyer, Boyertown Alum 62:08
22. Austin Gregor, CB South Alum 62:05
23. Terrance Murphy, St. Joe's Prep Alum 62:31
*28. Jadon Sargeant, St. Joe's Prep Senior 64:22
29. Steve Hand, Haverford Alum 64:24
*31. Ernie Pitone, O'Hara Senior 64:32
*32. Chris Pastore, O'Hara Senior 64:34
33. Jarrett Felix, Upper Dublin Alum 65:19
34. Mike Ciavarelli, Bonner Alum 65:11
36. Quadree Counsel, Bonner Alum 65:59
*38. Drew Pastore, O'Hara Sophomore 66:51
*53. Jim Belfatto, O'Hara Junior 69:37
Also worth noting on the O'Hara squad Jimmy Boyle and Nick Smart worked together to run 76:01 and 75:48 respectively. LaSalle's Jack Magee was just behind in 76:09.
Obviously its hard to know who was all out racing like me and who was just tempoing or trying to get in a good work out like a lot of these guys probably were. I think it is clear that O'Hara was doing some classic pack running as you could see a bunch of their guys grouped at different points in the race. Clearly they have a few youngsters like Drew Pastore ready to step up. We know they have a squad out front, it just comes down to who is going to sneak up to make sure they have 5 guys who have a big day at states. No sign of Kevin James in my brief scan. Hopefully he is healthy.
1. Tyler McCandless, Northampton Alum 54:38
2. Kyle Dawon, Coatseville Alum 54:54
4. John Pickhaver, St. Joe's Prep Alum 56:00
5. Dan Day, Landsdale Catholic Alum 56:42
6. Nick Scarpello, CB West Alum 56:52
9. Mike Garrity, O'Hara Alum 59:21
11. Phil Celona, Ryan Alum 59:23
14. James Murphy, St. Joe's Prep Alum 61:09
*18. Dan Savage, Cardinal O'Hara Senior 61:49
20. Dave Moyer, Boyertown Alum 62:08
22. Austin Gregor, CB South Alum 62:05
23. Terrance Murphy, St. Joe's Prep Alum 62:31
*28. Jadon Sargeant, St. Joe's Prep Senior 64:22
29. Steve Hand, Haverford Alum 64:24
*31. Ernie Pitone, O'Hara Senior 64:32
*32. Chris Pastore, O'Hara Senior 64:34
33. Jarrett Felix, Upper Dublin Alum 65:19
34. Mike Ciavarelli, Bonner Alum 65:11
36. Quadree Counsel, Bonner Alum 65:59
*38. Drew Pastore, O'Hara Sophomore 66:51
*53. Jim Belfatto, O'Hara Junior 69:37
Also worth noting on the O'Hara squad Jimmy Boyle and Nick Smart worked together to run 76:01 and 75:48 respectively. LaSalle's Jack Magee was just behind in 76:09.
Obviously its hard to know who was all out racing like me and who was just tempoing or trying to get in a good work out like a lot of these guys probably were. I think it is clear that O'Hara was doing some classic pack running as you could see a bunch of their guys grouped at different points in the race. Clearly they have a few youngsters like Drew Pastore ready to step up. We know they have a squad out front, it just comes down to who is going to sneak up to make sure they have 5 guys who have a big day at states. No sign of Kevin James in my brief scan. Hopefully he is healthy.
Olympic Fever
If you have been at home at all during the past week you have probably watched some crazy random Olympic events like archery or white water canoeing or handball, but all that I really am pumped for is the great sport of track and field (besides the occasional basketball, volleyball and swimming, I mean I am a sports fan). But I know most of my readers are high schoolers so I figured I'll spin this a little high schooley. Here are some of the high school marks of the future distance Olympians.
Nick Symmonds: 1:53 for 800m, 4:20 for 1600m, he was also a state champion at 3200m and the 4x4. In college he really took off when he dropped times of 1:45.83 and 3:40.91 for 1500m. He went to a D3 school because he didn't get D1 scholarships.
Matt Centrowitz: 8:41 for 2 miles (negative split), 4:04.09 1600m, Centrowitz still had NCAA eligibility when he medaled at the 2011 world championships in the 1500m.
Andrew Wheating: 3:54 for 1500m, 14:55 indoor 5000m, he made the Olympics at 800m as a college sophomore.
Duane Solomon: 1:49.79 for 800m, he was the 2003 CA State Champion at this event. His 1:43.44 is the third best Season Best of the competitors in the Olympics this year. His NCAA PR was a 1:45.69.
Galen Rupp: 4:01.8 for the mile, 8:03 for 3k and 13:37 for 5k. He also ran 29:09 for 10k. He had set high school records in the 2k, 3k and 5k.
Matt Tegenkamp: 15:26 XC 5k, 8:57 for 3200m and 4:11 for 1600m, he went on to run at Wisconsin where he lowered his 5k PR to 13:30.
Evan Jager: 8:47 for 2 miles, 4:05.68 for the mile in the same meet. He was a part of a 7:40.02 4x800m and had a 1:51 open PR. Jager didn't start running the steeple until this season. He is doing alright so far.
Don Cabral: 14:32 for 5k on the track, 8:56 for 2 Miles, 4:09 for the Mile and he also finished 8th at Footlocker Nationals for Cross Country
Dathan Ritzenhein: 4:05 for 1600m, 8:41 for 3200m as a HS Junior, and 13:44.70 for 5k, just missing the HS record (Rupp would break the mark in the years to come). He won back to back Footlocker Championships including a course record time of 14:29 as a HS Junior.
Lopez Lomong: He helped his team New York squad win XC and Track state titles but his career really blossomed in College at Northern Arizona where he was the indoor 3000m National Champion as well as the outdoor 1500m National Champion.
Leonel Manzano: Manzano ran 1:50, 4:06 and 9:07 at his Texas High School.
PS Thanks to everyone for helping me to 150,000 career views on the blog! It is a cool achievement and this experience has been a great one. Hopefully the 2012-2013 season brings even better results!
Nick Symmonds: 1:53 for 800m, 4:20 for 1600m, he was also a state champion at 3200m and the 4x4. In college he really took off when he dropped times of 1:45.83 and 3:40.91 for 1500m. He went to a D3 school because he didn't get D1 scholarships.
Matt Centrowitz: 8:41 for 2 miles (negative split), 4:04.09 1600m, Centrowitz still had NCAA eligibility when he medaled at the 2011 world championships in the 1500m.
Andrew Wheating: 3:54 for 1500m, 14:55 indoor 5000m, he made the Olympics at 800m as a college sophomore.
Duane Solomon: 1:49.79 for 800m, he was the 2003 CA State Champion at this event. His 1:43.44 is the third best Season Best of the competitors in the Olympics this year. His NCAA PR was a 1:45.69.
Galen Rupp: 4:01.8 for the mile, 8:03 for 3k and 13:37 for 5k. He also ran 29:09 for 10k. He had set high school records in the 2k, 3k and 5k.
Matt Tegenkamp: 15:26 XC 5k, 8:57 for 3200m and 4:11 for 1600m, he went on to run at Wisconsin where he lowered his 5k PR to 13:30.
Evan Jager: 8:47 for 2 miles, 4:05.68 for the mile in the same meet. He was a part of a 7:40.02 4x800m and had a 1:51 open PR. Jager didn't start running the steeple until this season. He is doing alright so far.
Don Cabral: 14:32 for 5k on the track, 8:56 for 2 Miles, 4:09 for the Mile and he also finished 8th at Footlocker Nationals for Cross Country
Dathan Ritzenhein: 4:05 for 1600m, 8:41 for 3200m as a HS Junior, and 13:44.70 for 5k, just missing the HS record (Rupp would break the mark in the years to come). He won back to back Footlocker Championships including a course record time of 14:29 as a HS Junior.
Lopez Lomong: He helped his team New York squad win XC and Track state titles but his career really blossomed in College at Northern Arizona where he was the indoor 3000m National Champion as well as the outdoor 1500m National Champion.
Leonel Manzano: Manzano ran 1:50, 4:06 and 9:07 at his Texas High School.
PS Thanks to everyone for helping me to 150,000 career views on the blog! It is a cool achievement and this experience has been a great one. Hopefully the 2012-2013 season brings even better results!
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