Alright so I just want to throw this out there again, I feel that these comments are great, I enjoy reading everyone's opinions on the subjects at hand. However, I think the best way to stimulate conversations is through a forum rather than these comments. I think tracktalk and even penntrack may be better ways to hash out these issues. I'll read up on either of those sources over the next two weeks and feel free to link up the posts to the forums. You can comment also on here still if you disagree with me. I have no problem with that but it is a little tougher for me to moderate certain things because unfortunately during camp week at Muhlenberg this week I'm not going to have a lot of time.
That also means I probably won't do this argument great justice, but I'll give it my best shot.
I'm also a tiny bit nervous because I know Tony reads the blog, at least a little bit ...
We will start in 2010 because, unfortunately for Barchet, that is the last time both boys were on the XC course together. Barchet as a freshman was one of the key contributors on Henderson's runner up squad with a 16:05 D1 performance and finished 63rd at states. It was a very impressive performance for a freshman. At District One freshman rarely finish in the top 20 and excluding Ned Willig's freshman year where the times were absurdly fast, freshman rarely run as fast as Barchet did. These facts alone show a ton of potential down the line.
In 2010 Barchet was 29 seconds ahead of Russell at the District meet (Russell won the JV race in one of the fastest JV race times I've ever seen 16:34).
But Russell took the momentum of winning the JV race and carried it all the way through into a healthy 2011 XC season that Barchet, unfortunately couldn't match. Russell dropped a 15:43 and just missed a middle at his first big time individual states race. He was one of the top sophomores in the race and the difference between sophomore medalists and junior medalists is usually the largest class difference medal wise. If Russell didn't snag a medal in the 2012 season I'd be very surprised.
Barchet normally would scare me with an injury like that. Think Brad Miles junior year, he finished a modest 7th at states, not as I had projected early in the season, 2nd place. I even thought a healthy Miles would have won that year. After seeing his Senior season I don't think that statement is out of bounds.
That being said Barchet did something Miles didn't do until late in his senior year, he broke 9:30 in the 3200m. Barchet's 9:28, almost out of nowhere, as just a sophomore. There are not many sophomore's who can boast a time like that at such an age. He seemed to be just rounding back into top form in time for his spring season to come to an end. Barchet should be in excellent shape this fall and I imagine that 9:28 is just the start of something big.
But Russell didn't have a bad spring either dropping into the 4:18s and running 9:31 in a race that had a field that underwhelmed. The dude is clearly holding his own. He has more speed than Barchet does and thus his strength will be Lehigh more so than Barchet. Admittedly, neither guy has given me a mind blowing performance at the most important course, Hershey. Both guys were fairly underwhelming there compared to the previous week.
The knock on Henderson will always end up being the state course. I'm sorry, I know they are probably sick of hearing that by now. But hopefully those guys use my words as motivation in practice everyday. That'd be pretty cool actually if Coach Kelly quoted me in practice. I'd be honored. So yeah do that.
But ultimately, I digress. It is a close battle, but I go Barchet at Hershey and Russell at Lehigh. Barchet has a crap ton of potential and I like the 3200m guys rather than the speed guys when I'm picking XC place winners so I see Barchet pulling it out. Both will be potential top 10 guys this year in the somewhat weaker AAA states race.
And of course both will potential have state gold around their neck .....
But we have talked plenty about that.
This blog is a great place for xc fans to get some good insight from etrain on a topic, and then post our opinions. It’s informative and fun.
ReplyDeleteHenderson runners probably shouldn’t read this stuff and if they do, at least refrain from responding to comments, no matter how justified they might be. They have no need to defend or explain themselves. And the last thing they need is to start believing their own press. Stay confident, stay focused, stay humble and let the results do the talking. That team has the potential to be one of the best ever in PA.
Etrain, how about you rank the top ten XC races you are looking forward to this year? Also I was thinking when the year gets going you start doing a runner of the week? Let me know what you think.
ReplyDeleteBoth very good ideas ^^^
DeleteYou never know when a high schooler is going to break out. Russell and Barchet are both sure to be good, but other Henderson runners could end up being the top man.
ReplyDeleteChaborek has 1:54/4:22/9:40 track times. He finished xc strong with a 16:35 at Chesmonts to help hold off Great Valley last year. That time normally equates to low 16's at the fast Lehigh course, but he had an off day at Districts.
Last years District JV winner Stratman could be up there too if he keeps improving.
Also, Barchet has a brother who put up some impressive times as a Freshman and may just break out this year.
The team has a ton of talent and a lot of potential.
Not trying to be mean, but I think I've heard that information conveyed in like 40 other comments. Let's talk about something else pleaseeee
ReplyDeleteHow about A and AA state previews
ReplyDeleteno one cares
DeleteHow about who has a chance to be this years surprise at States? All the talk is Henderson and O'Hara, but as North Penn showed last year, that's why they run the race. Nobody saw N Penn coming to take last years title.
ReplyDeleteI think a team like CR North could compete with O'Hara or Henderson. With a very strong top 3 in Ross Wilson, Mac Emery, and Zingarini that are all improving and running better, they can be very good if they can develop a 4 and 5 runner.
DeleteAlso I think a team like North Allegheny could surprise some people this year, now I am not talking about them winning states but they may be able to sneak in for a top 3 or top 5, because this team always seems to develop young stars.
I also think Kiski can have a really solid team this year too, with Brent Kennedy running very well and a solid 2-5 they can surprise at states too.
This year "North Penn" might very well be North Penn, they have Jack Macauley up front and runners like Grace, Molloy, and Hill that are able to match other good teams packs.
CRN could be a potential sleeper, NA always finds a way to be competitive each year, Kiski could surprise as well. I had NP up in the standings however, I didn't see Hill (#2/#3 runner) in the current roster so that would be a big blow to the defending champs
DeleteI think CRN would be considered one of the top 5 teams and could possibly medal (this team reminds me of NP last year). Kiski can be a sleeper as well. I rated NP high but I didn't see Hill in the current roster. That would a big blow to NP repeating as champ if their potential #2 runner is out.
DeleteChances of either Barchet or Russell competing for individual gold?
ReplyDeleteNot at all this year, but next year it's going to be those 2 vs. Brent Kennedy from Kiski (my personal prediction)
Delete