Alright so I enjoy the PTXC rankings and I like seeing the opinion of a team of guys who follow the sport at least fairly closely (hard to say how closely they follow it in comparison to me, but that is besides the point). Last year when I looked at the rankings my immediate criticism (which I expressed in a post as my alter ego etrain69 last year, can't prove it because the account got deleted, but again besides the point) was that the boys over at North Penn were ranked too low. The potential, at the least in the preseason, for this team to win a state championship was clear.
This year out front can't disagree with their 1-2 punch. At Briarwood, Henderson has the chance to unseat the big dogs, but until then there is no reason to rank them higher than O'Hara. I may get some backlash from all the Henderson fans for saying that, but hey, the title is not won in the rankings. This isn't college football.
After that things get a little fuzzier. Now I am aware that I made some team rankings earlier in the summer, but honestly I have gone back on a lot of those after looking more stats over and such and a bunch of my team opinions have kind of been altered. So bare with me if it seems I am contradicting myself (because I kind of am).
Honestly don't think LaSalle deserves the 3 spot here. Yes Coyle is very good and like I have said to many people, he could have had XC gold if he raced a little bit more strategically at Hershey last fall. He should give them a score around 1 or 2 out front. However, after that they have Magee and Stone, both solid track seasons and solid XC seasons, but far from proven XC talents. They are well coached and have some nice pieces to round out their top 5, but how they managed to snag more votes than CRN is beyond me.
CRN's top 3 is superior to LaSalle's and although I don't agree with these arguments, I'm sure there are people out there that believe Mac Emery will be better than Coyle this year on the trails. After that I think it is hard to deny Wilson and Zingarini's superiority to Stone and Magee (as of right now) based on their proven ability over 5000m. CRN is very well coached in their own right, and I would be very surprised if they didn't have a 4-5 punch that was solid.
Also CRN is essentially a lock to go to states and right now LaSalle is practically a lock not to go. Unfortunate circumstances and probably shouldn't play a role in the rankings, but just thought I'd mention it.
After that I'm sorry Mt. Lebo fans, you guys probably your 3 best runners and I don't see a whole lot that points to a top 5 season this year. Definitely can't see them beating North Allegheny and I have a soft spot for Kiski this year. I feel Lebo is ranked too high as well.
As a result, that makes me feel NA is too low. They are always very good and if I'm a betting man, I'd say they will win the WPIALs this year and be top 5 in the state without even looking at their roster at all. Having seen their roster, they will be a little young, but its hard to say they don't return enough talent to compete late in the season. If they had had a better day from their youngsters last November they would have been state champs (but you could make that argument for a lot of teams, that's the way the cookie crumbles often times).
Great Valley lost their most important piece last year in Ned Willig. They have some solid pieces like the younger Willig, but I am not sure how this team ended up ranked ahead of North Penn. North Penn was the state champs last year! They return a solid group of guys from that team and their most important piece, Jack Macauley, had his best track season thus far compared to his classmates. North Penn has some solid senior leadership and Great Valley has a bunch of younger guys who may still be a year away from being talented enough to help this team compete at the top level. Great Valley has also underwhelmed on the challenging state course the past couple years. Maybe they are going to surprise me (Demetrius may come on and drop the stat hammer) but to rank Great Valley without Willig above the defending champs? Hard for me to wrap my head around.
I'm happy with Cumby and Kiski pretty much. Both I think are better than Lebo, but I think both deserve to be on this list and both are solid teams who I can't see winning a state title but could possibly sneak into the top 5 teams in the state if they have their day at the right time. Cumby especially has potential. CV hasn't won Districts in a while (I think, didn't check the stat but I don't think they have since at least like 2007, maybe not since Fuller in like 04, Idk what Manheim looked like, but again, besides the point) and they are due for a title. Kiski is still kind of young, but Kennedy doesn't run like a youngster. It won't hurt your team score at WPIALs if you have the individual champ.
I wouldn't be bold enough to call CRN, NP or any D1 team a lock for states unless they are returning 6 runners who went under 17:00 at Lehigh. Henderson does, so they're a lock.
ReplyDeleteD1 is very strong this year, there's many teams returning 5 or 6. Two or three surprise teams are very possible.
O'hara is no lock over LaSalle either. Plus just like last year, O'hara is only one injury, illness or bad day away from disappointment. CRN and NP too.
When is the last time CRN didn't make states as a team? If you can find that stat for me then we can talk. If any of Henderson, North Penn and CR North I'll be incredibly stunned. As far as I'm considered there are 2 spots available basically every year.
DeleteIn the O'Hara situation I can see it because it is just one spot.
I’m not going to look for that CRN States stat as I sense you know it's a dead end. And I'm not discounting coaching and tradition, I’m just saying they’re no lock. They’ve got three top returners, after that it’s a bit of a drop off. That’s looking at last years xc, outdoor performances an last years JV.
DeleteThere's some good teams returning varsity; GV, NP, WC East, Pennsbury, Pottsgrove etc.
Come on etrain, how about it a little love? I know it's only sept 1 and CRN will respond, but only one team at Sharp looked like a lock yesterday and it wasn't them.
DeleteCR North certainly didn't look like a lock yesterday and I completely agree with you on your point, but the point is I am a man of numbers and the smart money says CRN is a lock to make states. It's still September.
DeleteBut remember this comment please and if you are correct and I am wrong I will give you your on post on here where I tell everyone that I was completely wrong and you were right because if you called this correctly you certainly deserve your own post.
And the fact that I didn't delete this post I guess is a form of showing you a little love because I deleted like everything else haha
Thanks etrain. I think I'm 0-4 on disagreeing with you, and I'm not calling this one a victory, but to be somewhat on track in early Sept is good for the ego.
DeleteJust to be clear, I'm not saying CRN can't make states, just don't think they're a lock. Henderson is the only lock to me. I expect D1 to be very strong, 250 points might be too much to get in the top 5 this year.
haha I think at this point you look like you are winning this round haha keep playing the game and that record will get a lot closer to 500 haha
DeleteHow about your thoughts on the A and AA rankings
ReplyDeleteGreat Valley has two semi decent youngsters and a 400m runner, I dont see them even going to states
ReplyDeleteThe sleeper team is Grove City. We all know about #1, but I saw some road race results and it looks like they are going to be tough.
ReplyDeletehttp://runhigh.com/2012RESULTS/R081512AB.html
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DeleteI completely agree with you Etrain, idk who did these results, but it was slopped together and poorly thought out.
ReplyDeleteIf I may ask, who is Great Valley's 400m runner?
Last year, not counting seniors, they had four kids in the 16s, one that ran 17:07 (got hurt and was out for a month and ran a 17:07 at Paul Short so definitely would have been mid 16s if he hadn't gotten injured), and to round out 6-7 they had 17:21/17:23. My boys have been working hard and I'm sure if they can stay injury free they can surprise everyone. That's all I'm saying about them, I'll let them fight their own controversy.
-RTJ
But Henderson should be first! The depth shows it!
ReplyDeleteHenderson isnt better than Ohara outside the top 2 Henderson is very good but not great. Sure they got depth but the depth your talking about is just from throwing JV runners in the D1 JV race and coming out with amazing times. Sorry dude.
DeleteThe only reason O'Haras times are so fast is because they run at a course that's even faster than Lehigh. Savage would still be ahead of Russell and Barchet, but pitone and pastore wouldn't even be in the 15:40's if they ran at lehigh instead. Lehigh is still really fast but not as fast as the one Ohara goes to. And the Henderson depth that O'Hara should really be worried about is that any runner behind Russell and barchet can have a bad day and they'll still be monsters on the course. All Ohara has that puts them a tad, and i mean a tad, like the size of an atom, over Henderson is finally having a 5th piece now. Who even knows if Nick will do that well? I expect him to improve a lot and on paper in the perfect world, O'hara wins over henderson in a 1 on 1 race. But in a race like states where O'Haras 5th guy is going to place farther and farther back because of more people. Henderson definitely has the edge.
DeletePenntrack's course difficulty rating of Lehigh: http://PA.milesplit.com/venues/1407
DeletePenntrack's course difficulty rating of Belmont: http://PA.milesplit.com/venues/1788
Tell me again how the District 12 course is easier?
Unless you were referring to Great American rather than Belmont, in which case I'm sorry for the misunderstanding.
Deleteyeah I was talking about Great American, that's where all of their pr's are from. Haha no worry's I wasn't suggesting lehigh was comparable to O'haras district course
DeleteThat makes a lot more sense. I still lean towards O'Hara though, because in my opinion times mean nothing. What needs to be examined is each team's ability on the Parkview course, where O'Hara vastly outperformed Henderson last year.
DeleteCV doesnt put much stock in districts since they run the same course twice ,coach always has them peak at states,just look how they do vs district champ.
ReplyDeleteHenderson should not be first, it's great to run fast on Lehigh, but until they can show it on a course that's actually tough, they will be second. Last year at districts, OHara boy's times beat Henderson boy's chesmont times and they ran on a much more difficult course. As of now, Ohara is still number one in the State. Maybe Briarwood will prove me wrong, but you can't fight that point with stats because every stat says OHara tops Henderson. Depth is great... and if you really want to compare times on fast courses, compare OHara's Great American times to Henderson's districts times... (4 in the 15's, 1 16:01, and the others still sub 17).
ReplyDelete- RTJ
P.S. I still want an answer on who Great Valley's 400 runner is...
Ummmmmm, neither Russell or Barchet ran at Chesmonts. So that argument is completely invalid, cool, O'hara can beat Hendersons 3-9 guys. Even if Russell and Barchet did run that race, I doubt they'd even try because there would be no point because the Chesmont win would've been inevitable. No point to risk straining a muscle for a meet that you've practically already won.
DeleteI agree with the above ^, and they weren't actually challenged by anyone until states. Chesmonts was a cake walk against GV even without Russell and Barchet, and Everyone with the exception of Aj ran a good race at lehigh, well reiny too but we all know he wasn't able to run all of XC all the way into indoor. If you had Ohara's guys running at Lehigh instead of the Great American meet then you could easily add 10+ seconds to each runner, welllll besides Dan, I feel like he's so good he'd do well either way (is Great American even a full 5k? anyone know for a fact?). Henderson has Eric Stratman, Ricky Waltz, Alex Knapp, and Gordon Barchet who, as Etrain said a while back in a Henderson preview, could all be the next Tony Russell and have a huge break out sophomore year, (in Eric's case a great Junior year). Ohara has nothing like that, they have their 1-5 and then absolutely nothing when Henderson is deep all the way back to their 11th and 12th guys.
DeleteAnd when they were challenged for the first time at states how'd they do??
DeleteThey got 5th with their 3rd guy running 17:15! Yikes! and then their 6 and 7 going 18:03 and 18:06!
Pitone and Pastore went 16:39 and 16:51
But no Barchet and close to no state course experience
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DeleteSorry I was referring to Demetrius thier 400m runner from last year I thought he still had another year, but on that note all great valley has is two decent runners but nothing special
ReplyDeletePeople are expecting too much of Briarwood, its mid september and you're predicting a race in November. In my opinion the team that loses will have an advantage because over training is a huge factor.
ReplyDeleteJust because you win doesn't mean you're over training. Especially in the case of Henderson. I wouldn't even be surprised if their Coach Kevin Kelly wasn't focused on Briarwood or States. He's probably thinking about nationals next year and even this year. He definitely has the team for it. I know he's going to want them to win states, but his team is able to go much farther than OHara can. For this year and next year they are bringing back their top 4 and the other junior Eric Stratman may even make it into the top 5. Who knows, they may even be training to peak for regionals so they can race great there and qualify for nationals, and then next year they'll be returning 4 and maybe all top 5 with some Nationals experience so they have a chance to win it. In 2013 they'll probably have 2 sub 15:20's, 2 15:30's and a 15:40. Ohara's coach might, and I say might, over train his runners because this is the teams last chance in who knows how long to win states, they dont really have a record of being state gold contenders with the exception of this year and last year. I highly doubt he will over train them, but it's plausible. Anyone else agree or disagree with me?
DeleteI disagree, why can't O'Hara go as far as nationals? I mean why not? And you are insane to think any coach will pass on a chance to win the state championship. Unless you are Christian Brothers or South Lake Carrol, NO ONE should be training to start peaking that late. A great team can peak and states and last to nationals. It doesn't matter if it is Henderson or O'Hara.
DeleteWell for starters only 2 teams from the north eastern region will make it to nationals. One is CBA, and the other is whoever else gets the #2 spot. I know Henderson is going to work hard for states but why focus on that. Next year they are going to have a team that could actually win Nationals, win, not just top three but have a really good shot at winning it. Peaking for Regionals is the smartest thing to do. I don't care who you are, making it to nationals is a bigger accomplishment than winning states. They don't need to peak for states in order to have a chance to win, both teams are practically equal. And there is a reason why it's called PEAKING. "a great team can peak at states and last to nationals" I call soooo much bull, I'm not saying it's a definite that that's what they're doing or if they try it that it will definitely work. But if they wanted to go to nationals this year which they should do to give them the best chance at winning next year, then that's when they'd be training to peak for.
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DeleteI wouldn't be scared of Henderson over training with coach Kelly but with O'Hara you never know, the fact is if Henderson wins Briarwood then they're a clear favorite for states, but if O'Hara wins i wouldn't discount Henderson at all.
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DeleteI am Demetrius... and I graduated last year. I also was nothing special in XC, so i wouldn't have made a difference. Track was definitely my forte running 400/800.
ReplyDeleteTo the dude that responded: O'Hara beat Henderson at States by 63. Reiny wasn't making up 63 points, but I'll be done on this subject, we shall see at Briarwood to see who's looking better and then at the important race, States.
Henderson isn't going to take States as "just another race." No offense, but they aren't that dominate at XC. Pennsbury was DOMINATE at XC and they even peaked for States. Leave it to CBA for passing on States and winning Nationals.
-RTJ
Henderson's usual number #4 guy seamus collins had a really horrible race, and then the usual number 5 guy also had a horrible race.. So pretty much, it took 2 of their top 5 to have the worst races of their lives on top of their #1 returner to miss the entire season for that to happen.
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DeleteI'm sure Coach Kelly knew his boys weren't going to win states that year it was more of an experience year for them. A 5th place finish without Barchet and a group of mostly sophomores doesn't say much to the results of this years race. The fact is the sophomore to junior jump is more drastic than the junior to senior jump as an example savage went from 84th to 4th sophomore to junior year and dropped a minute on the state course.
DeleteAmen, and to the one 2 up. I didn't make an excuse for them getting 5th. I just pointed out the simple fact that they had the most crippled team out of everyone last year. No one accounts for the sophomore to junior jump even when Dan is living proof. Henderson only had 2 guys race well out of there entire top 5 (the regular five, not the top 5 times at states for their team). That's not one person having an off day and losing the team title, that's over half of the people who are the best on the team who screwed up. I'm not saying Henderson absolutely will win, no one is saying that, but Ohara fans are getting a bit over confident because you aren't even taking into consideration of some really important facts. #1 everyone on the Henderson team has experience now, #2 the would be number one returner is back, who knows if he'll be faster than russell but that doesnt matter, #3 Henderson has much bigger goals than Ohara because they are much more talented, they are already even with them when they're on average a year behind. #4 A much better coach, anyone who says the Ohara coach is better than Hendersons is absolutely crazy. Coach Kelly is by far the best High School coach PA has right now. Look at all the amazing runners he's had. wait i'll list a couple, Aschraf Khattabi, Will Keller, Chris Ferry, Chris Aldrich, and Luke lefebure who got a scholarship into Stanford to run there, Aj Chaborek might even beat Lukes 800 record this coming track season. Now he has Reiny and Tony who both could and probably will be the best runners that team has ever had. I'm pretty sure Tony beat every sophomore record that school had for the races he ran in. Although Luke and Aj aren't really XC guys, they just prove even more that Coach Kelly knows what he's doing, he is Henderson's #1 advantage.
DeleteCoach Kennedy has coached many more All-americans then Coach Kelly. I believe he even had a National championship 4 x 8 or 4 x Mile about 10 years ago. O'hara has a legit chance to get to NXN. I'm sure both teams will peak for States and then try to hang on until Regionals.
DeleteAlso, Tony did not break any of Chris Aldrich's sophomore records and he's not on the same planet as an xc runner as Ian Gottesfeld(4th as a soph, 1st as a junior, 2nd as a senior).
Kennedy- 30 all American certificates? And I think 2 national champions? But can we leave the coaches out on this
DeleteDude, Coach Kelly was the coach when Henderson won nationals in the DMR in 2007. Kevin kelly has been The Henderson coach for what I think is 10 or 11 years now, he has 2 back to back XC state championships under his belt from 2002 and 2003, in 2006 Henderson got 2nd to Coatesville who went on to win nationals. In 2009 Henderson won gold, in 2010, Tony and Reiny's freshman year, the team got an unexpected 2nd place. It was Reiny's freshman year and he was already 4th on the team and Tony was able to sneak into the 7th spot. I look at where Tony is now and where he is going to be in these next 2 years, and it is hard for me to understand that a sophomore who ran a 15:43 5k, a 9:31 2 mile, and a 4:18 mile was only able to sneak into 7th as a freshman, even though he was still really good then. He probably improved from the pressure of losing the #1 returner and being thrown into the #1 spot all of a sudden. Before his sophomore year you probably never heard a word of him because Reiny was so good and he was all people cared about then. Now here's something else, how long has Kennedy been the O'hara coach? I don't know how many years he's been coaching, 30 all American certificates is amazing, and he's coached a lot of amazing individuals, but in all this time he's never had a team get a state gold, last year was one of the few times he could've gotten one. I don't know if he's had any teams come close to it before that so i'd like for someone to tell me. Henderson has 3 state golds in the past 10 years, and then there's the 2006 team who would've had a gold in any year where they weren't racing the team who went on to win Nationals. They placed 2nd in 2010 also. In the past decade, from 2002 up to 2012 who else has done that?
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DeleteCRN?!
ReplyDeleteare you going to do a review of the viking invitational?
ReplyDeleteFrom that meet Pennsbury looked great, CRN looked pretty underwhelming, and Penncrest looked pretty impressive. They ran with 5 kids and got second.
ReplyDeleteHenderson didn't get first place in their relays, congrats to Dtown-West. Reiny may not be in top shape since Russell/Haugh was a team. Maybe Haugh is just in better shape, who knows. Surprising they got beat by such a large margin though.
-RTJ
Henderson won the overall team title at Immaculata. My assumption would be coach Kelly just wanted to spread the wealth as far as his pairing went and D-town west just put their1 and 2 guys together.
DeleteIf Henderson wanted the first place relay they would've put Russell and Chaborek together. No one in that field would beat a relay that consisted of a 4:18 and 4:22 miler. Coach Kelly was trying to dominate the team battle, which he did. Henderson ran a b varsity and they put five relays before Dwest's 2nd relay came through.
DeleteIt's the Immaculata Relays. No one takes it seriously, all of the top teams just took it as a workout for the top guys and put some of the younger guys in the Varsity race to give them a chance to run varsity. There is no way that you can base predictions off of this meet.
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Deleteokay okay to the guy right above me, you need to face the simple truth that there wasn't a single soul there that is even in the league of the Henderson team. Tony ran the fastest over all split out of everyone who raced that day, Sam just kept losing the leads Tony gave him (they obviously weren't taking it seriously because during his part of the race he was waving to other runners he probably hasn't seen in a while on other teams, also, I believe I saw him wink and point to a Unionville girl when he passed her. Yup, flirting while in the middle of a race is the definition of taking it seriously), they ran their fastest miler with one of there slowest milers in the top 8, then Aj with the second slowest, then Reiny with the 3rd slowest, then Seamus with the fourth slowest. It takes a 4:22 miler and a 4:30ish miler to place ahead of Russell and Haugh's team. Those 2 got 2nd at the same meet last year also. It was more of a race between themselves than a race between everyone else. Haha sorry, it's not that big of a deal for them at all.
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DeleteSam is hot, I wish he would see me during a race
DeleteUm excuse me, im his gf so back off please and thank you
DeleteD-west ran their 1 and 2 guys and Henderson ran their 1 and 8, 2 and 7 ect..
ReplyDeleteD-west then changed it up and paired guys of different ability levels together. They also swept 1-5 in the JV race.
DeleteWhat happened to Henderson's JV?! oh wait they ran the varsity race..
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DeleteHenderson's JV didn't do anything that impressive in the Varsity race though (except for maybe Waltz and Moy).
DeleteHaugh is one of the worst milers on Henderson's Varsity. Immaculata is a mile loop relay. Russell is #1 with a 4:18, Chaborek #2 4:22, Barchet #3 4:26, Collins #4 4:27, Rimkis #5 4:29, Stratman #6 4:29, Knapp #7 4:37, Haugh #8 4:41.
DeleteTell me that doesnt set up their 1-8,2-7, 3-6, 4-5, lineup perfectly.
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DeleteBoth Henderson and D-West ran Immaculata as a workout. Henderson looked really dominate showing off their depth once again. However, Leidal and Steadman from West have the ability to be State medalist this fall so there win should not be that surprising
ReplyDeleteAs far as I'm concerned, the races so far this weekend speak more about the strength of Pennsbury, Penncrest and Ken Leidal and Joey Steadman than the deficiencies of Henderson or CRN but I will say this (and then you will see my full opinion at the end of the weekend) CRN showed some serious weakness this weekend and Pennsbury looked very good, gave them a nice wake up call that I am sure they will respond to. Meanwhile, a couple guys from Henderson who were both in the top 50 couldn't beat two guys from DT West who barely even made states last year? They lost by 20 seconds.
ReplyDeleteIts still August I know, but last year Henderson took the top 4 spots at the same meet and had three relays under 20 minutes.
Just something to keep in mind. It's not earth shattering news or something, I'm just taking note of it.
I'm excited for Briarwood.
Liedal had a bad race at Districts last year and didn't even make states. But yesterday it was also 90 degrees and all of the times were considerably slower than last year but Liedal and Steadman still dominated.
DeletePeople are over estimating the seriousness of this race. It's not a 5k, its summer, and Henderson isn't going to delay training to rest for a meet. D-west has something to prove but Henderson could care less what happens.
DeleteWill the great Etrain make an appearance at briarwood?!?
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ReplyDeleteHenderson put their 1/8 2/7 guys together? So you're saying Haugh is their 8th guy? Weird. I could have sworn he was their number 2 guy last year and with Reiny back he's their number three. Henderson just keeps up with the excuses...
ReplyDeleteWe should seriously stop with this Henderson/everyone else debate, it's getting old. Having confidence is great... to an extent.
Anyway, I have always favored girls XC over boys... so Marissa Sheva is looking great. She ran the #4 all time on the course. She can dig down deep and use her 2:14/sub 60 speed to her advantage. Her mile at States was awesome, the last lap was almost the perfect race. Out-kicked by none other than Sara Sargent whose kick is lethal.
-RTJ
I think they mean 8th fastest miler....not xc runner. but yeah pretty awesome race between her and steinke. Will be interesting to see how they do.
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ReplyDeleteHow about an etrain roadtrip to the western part of the state? It would be a celebrity appearance.
ReplyDeleteI don't know how you could say O'Hara does not have depth. They had three freshman run under 17:30min on the Belmont course. And two Sophomores that ran under 18:00min too. Out of those five, only one was on Varsity. And they have just gained Nick Smart who is a sub 17:00.
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