A and AA

So I won't pretend I have consistently or thoroughly crunched the numbers for either classification. Penntrack has a bit of a preview up so if you want more in depth stuff feel free to go there. But I'll give you my two senses on the subject right now.

A
The A race is pretty stacked out front despite being such a small group of schools.  Luke Jones is definitely the favorite after a good spring and a great states race last fall, however, Ryan Smathers looks poised to take a leap towards next level XC running. The guy really got going on the track and was definitely in the same league as Huemmler and Coyle, perhaps even better than those guys (I personally see a strong argument for it). Then you throw in Rico Galassi who was just off the front group at states last year and exploded as a big name runner after his spring campaign. Those two guys have all the momentum right now and although Jones's strength is the trails, he has his hands full with these two guys.

And that isn't even counting guys like Sam Williams and Curt Jewett who also had fantastic springs. Williams has always performed well at the state course, while Jewett has struggled immensley at Hershey. If he can find the magic at the states' course this year, he could snag a state title. I feel strongly that any of the runners I just mentioned could win state gold if they have their day at the state meet. That's what makes this field so excited.

Also worth noting are guys like Jordan Jackson, the Archer twins, Hunter Johnson, and Kelby Mullen who have all had their fair share of top performances in AA competition.

The big sleeper here is Barrett Kemp. I had very high hopes for Kemp last season at states, he seemed on the verge of a break out race. He may not have had quite as good of a finish to his year as projected, but considering how little competition he faces year round in district 9 AA, with the right training and race strategies this year he could really surprise and become a big name in the state. Kemp ran 15:30 for 3 miles last year, beating Jewett, Smathers and Williams in the process, at the McQuaid invite.

AA
To me AA is interesting because of the Shearn v. Jaskowak battle out front. I'd say Shearn is the front runner right now because he has won essentially every big race on PA soil he has had to run his last few times out. He looks like he is going to challenge himself all season at the big time invitationals which makes him an experienced threat for states and nationals. Cap on a sub 15 minute 5k, and the guy looks very good going into this fall. Jaskowak, however, had a killer track season where he showed he was versatile from 800m through 3200m running a 9:14 in brutal weather with a big kick. He also ran 1:55 for 800m which gives him nice finishing speed on the XC trails. I underestimated him all last season and it turned out to backfire on me. If he wasn't stuck by the curse of non medalists not winning gold last season, he may have been able to take Quinn at Hershey. He just needed a little experience at the top. At Northeast Regionals he beat Shearn and Quinn and showed his potential to be the top XC guy this fall.

But there will be other interesting names to watch in this race. The big names who I can see are guys like Vinny Todaro, a top finisher from District 3 and just off the AAA medal stand in 2011, Dominic Deluca, who was my big sleeper pick from Dallas all last season, I might have just been a year too early, and Christian Kardish who surpassed both Horgan and Israel this past track season and showed he is ready to come into his own for Holy Ghost Prep.

Then there are the returning AA boys to consider like Valerosa,  Stelmack, Alexander, Hadfield, Sauvegaeu (butchered the spelling I'm sorry bud) and Wolfe. All those guys are medalists or near medalists last year and proven XC studs.

A couple deeper sleepers would be guys like Avery Scripture, who dropped a lot of time on the track this past spring and was in the 1:55ish range, Liam Corcoran who ran some very solid 3200m runs, and Ian Yakuso who has been a solid D1 AAA XC guy for a number of years now. Will McDermott from Bonner may also be a name to note in the PCL.