Indoor

My finals are finally done so I'm going to lay down the best indoor predictions post I can muster with not too much research being put in.

Here are some of my early thoughts.

 Tony Russell is clearly legit and one of the top guys in the mile or 3k field. He, like Norris, Shearn, Kennedy, Barchet, Aziz etc., are going to have to really be patient with the late start they are getting on indoors. Outdoors all these guys will be mixing it up for state titles no doubt. Indoors, they will all come on strong late in the season I have to imagine.

Which brings me to my next point: the 3k is stacked. I'm not sure how many of the AA/non-D1 guys will actually be competing hard this indoors but in theory the 3k could have a record setting number of qualifiers even at the very difficult 9 flat mark. Guys who I think off the top of my head who I think will be in the 8:50s if they run it:

Russell, Barchet, Aziz, Wistar, Norris, Shearn, Pondel, Ferruzzi, Emery, Wilson, Coyle, Savage, Belfatto, James, Pitone, Jaskowak, Huemmler, Coyle, Todaro, Jones, Galassi, Quinn, Macauley, Berry, Harriman, Webb, Martin, Pondel, Nissley, Groh, Williams, Ritz ... The list goes on and on. That's already 32 names! I didn't even mention guys like Brophy and the Kazanjians and Rimkis or Collins etc., etc. Admittedly not all those guys will stay healthy, run indoors, run the 3k, etc. but there are also always going to be guys who no one sees coming that break onto the scene and run crazy times.

Its hard to imagine that my boy Ferruzzi is one of the top 3 returners from states and is going to struggle to even be top 10 if the field pans out as I expected. It makes me think a lot of top guys will opt for the mile this year in order to compete for a top spot. I think this race is going to be won by an unexpected name. I wish I could give you that name, but I expect too many people at this point. Emery isn't a bad pick I think as a sleeper, but if I had to bet I'd go with Aziz. I still think Jaskowak should run it because he could be the state champ if he focuses on it. And of course you can not count out Tony Russell in this race if he is not focusing on a DMR relay (which I think he will be).

Which brings me to the mile.

The mile is interesting because you have the clear big dogs up front in Coyle and Huemmler and after that a slew of underdogs with potential. I'm liking Coyle to take down the title this year, although both guys had XC seasons that they probably were not too thrilled with and have been dying to get on the track and redeem themselves. I'd bet (and its early) that these guys push it to around 4:13 indoors which is very quick. Russell could certainly be in the mix if he runs. If it's a kickers race, however, I have a hard time imagining he can get either of these guys. They are both 1:51-1:52 types and as of right now. I'd say my projected max for Russell is 4:15ish and his best shot is in the 3k (which I don't think he will run). Certainly, however, if the pace is quick he has got a shot to use his strength to his advantage. I just hesitate to pick against Coyle's kick right now.

Ben Ritz is a sleeper pick here as well. If he can piece together an indoor season on a similar level to his outdoor track year last year he is going to really challenge for the title. He ran 4:12 in a race that benefited from a fast pace where he didn't have to do too much of the work, meaning in a fast state race that Huemmler, Coyle and Russell battle for, he could sneak in for the title. Max Norris certainly has to be in the mix here as well if he can recapture his steam from sophomore year on the track, but I don't anticipate him being a factor until outdoors. Jaskowak of course is a force here as well and certainly has to be hungry.

James Zingarini was state medalist outdoors last year and came on very strong at the end of the XC season to claim an 18th place finish. He could definitely be a factor in this race. Alec Kunzweiler may opt for the mile over the 8 to better help his team go for 4x8 gold. His kick would be valuable in a tactical mile. Andrew Stone would also be a factor in the mile. He expanded his strength this past XC season despite fighting off injury. I do see him running the 800m, however. Plus, Ryan Smathers ran 4:12 last year outdoors and if he gets back on the track to run indoors he could surprise some people. I think he may have been the best miler in the state last year, even better than Coyle, but never got the chance to prove it.

Lastly, you can't count out Vinny Todaro who had an awesome XC season and was a 4:16 miler last year. He very quietly has slipped off the radar for this track season in the craziness that was Footlocker Regionals,  but Todaro dominated XC and beat some really talented guys throughout the year. If he can find some fast meets to go to indoors to get himself in the hot heat, anything can happen.

The individual events are just stacked this year with guys like Harriman and Macauley also in the mix for medals (both more 3k guys than milers in my mind). Steve Yannacone could be a factor (I see him the 8) and then somebody like Brent Kennedy can not be overlooked. He could definitely mix it up in this field. He never got a chance to show his true ability during the track season because he was always doubling or in races that went out slow. He will be an interesting one to watch because I am honestly not sure what his limits are.

In the 800m we have a bunch of interesting names. Jeff Wiseman jumps out after this past weekends work and nipped Brad Rivera for the victory. Honestly, every time these two face of head to head it seems like Wiseman finds a way to just barely beat him out. Wiseman showed some seriously potential as a sophomore last spring in the 8. Rivera himself has been competing at the top level for a long time and will certainly compete for a top spot in the meet. He was 9th, just off the medal stand, last year. He also just missed qualifying for states in XC. I'm sure the guy is hungry for a title.

Joey Logue, now shifting his focus to individual events, is a major factor. He has killer foot speed and has the top PR among all returns for this year. He is going to be tough to beat and is my early pick for the title. He will have to deal with District 1 Champ Steve Yannacone who had a solid XC season in his own right after running low 1:54s last year and Andrew Stone who has been running killer 800m teams since his freshman year and had a break out XC season to follow up his break out track season last year. Plus there is Alec Kunzweiler who followed up a dirty 1:51 split last spring with a 2nd place finish in the open 800m at states. He may be thinking double gold in the 8-4x8 this year.

Other factors will be guys like Zach Brehm who put on a great performance in XC after a 1:55 flat track campaign as a freshman. I don't know how much indoor track they do out in Carlisle but hopefully we get to see his wheels. Dan Alexander has a state medal from last year and shouldn't be overlooked. Dave Garton ran 1:55 last year for Perk Valley as just a sophomore and could mix it up with the other top guys for a medal. Ken Leidal from DTWest had a solid XC season and dropped into the low 1:56s in the open 8 last year.

Of course the last name to remember is AJ Chaborek, who I suppose can't really be called a sleeper at this point, but is definitely a name that can take down the title. He has a solid kick and watched his team turn heads all fall, saving up to go get after it this season.

All the individual events are straight stacked this year.

However, that makes me question how the relays will unfold. In the DMR the two front runners are Henderson and LaSalle for sure. LaSalle made a lot of big strides and hopefully will choose the DMR over the 4x8 this time around. Henderson has great depth and has two big guns in Russell and Chaborek. Most of their squad we don't even know about as they weren't big factors on the teams very deep XC squad. Both teams will have to double guys and that may play a role in who takes the Gold.

Don't count out the O'Hara boys from this title conversation. They always have a solid relay or two indoors and with Belfatto taking the next step at the end of the fall he could be a great relay 1200m leg. They ran an under appreciated 4x8 last spring in my mind and return some key legs from that squad to go with emerging guys like James and a stud like Savage. Savage already dropped a 4:30 flat this year. They can afford to drop individual goals and go for the relay gold because none of their guys are really favorites for the title at this stage in the game.

Then you have the GFS boys led by Wistar and Aziz who, if they change around their individual schedules, would be two key pieces for a run at the title. GFS is consistently in the mix for the DMR at states and should not be overlooked this year, especially when they return guys like Wistar and Aziz.

Other sleepers would be squads like Great Valley, returning some members of their 4x8 and state champ DMR group including young Willig and Wolffe, Council Rock North with big guns Emery and Zingarini, North Allegheny's squad which is always tough to beat year in and year out, and Kiski Area led by stud anchor Brent Kennedy. Haverford Township may also be a factor in the race with Fowler and Bodine on the roster.

The 4x8 is a little more difficult to pick. CV and Bensalem both have great squads coming back this year and jump to mind as the two favorites. Maybe DTWest and DTEast will develop into contenders as well going forward. Each has a bit of a way to go, but got off to a nice start. I like CVs squad this year, but they have struggled to peice it all together for indoors in the same way they do for outdoors. Bensalem has some nice pieces and if they focus on the 4x8 they can take gold. The problem will be balancing busy schedules that also include individual goals and a 4x4 that can mix it up for the win. Pennridge may be a sleeper for the title, depending on how much they return behind Logue.

I know better than to doubt North Penn in the 4x8. They may develop a solid relay there as well. State College is also among my sleeper picks if they can continue the success they had outdoors last spring. Strath Haven may also be a sleeper pick with Butera and Huemmler as nice starting pieces.

Hope this satisfied your needs and doesn't get spammed too badly.