XC State Medalists: What Lies Ahead on the Track

I'm off from school, figure I'll do a fun post.

As you guys may or may not remember me saying last year, the XC AAA State Champion has become a lock to break 9:20 in the spring. Conner Quinn dipped under the last year and kept the trend alive and this year one can argue Tony Russell has already broke the barrier at his postseason time trial. That being said, I think Russell will be a factor to break 9:20 again and contend for the 2 mile title (Weller, Dennin and Tarsnane won the XC and two mile crowns in the same year, Gil won the XC and indoor 3k title).

That's just one trend I picked up. I was also interested as to how many of the state XC medalists come away with state medals in one of the track seasons.
In 2011 for AAA we had:
13 individual medalists + an additional 3 guys who only recieved relay medals. Ironically none of those 16 guys were named Drew Magaha, Brett Kelly, or Conner Quinn, who make up half of the top 6 finishers.
In 2010 for AAA we had:
16 individual medalists + an additional 3 guys who only recieved relay medals. The top 5 in this year were all individual medalists and between the top two finishers we had the 800m, mile and 3000m state champs indoors (Gil and Endress).
In 2009 for AAA we had (last one I swear):
14 individual medalists + an additional 2 guys who only recieved relay medals.

Over those same three years we had a number of runners crack the 9:20 or 4:17 mark in the 3200m and 1600m respectively.
2009: 16
2010: 10
2011: 10

The 3200m at states was especially fast in 2009 and most likely produced the extra people under 9:20.

So we are talking a solid 10 guys or so from the medaling pool should be under 9:20 or 4:17 this year and we also expect about 14 guys to leave the state championships in track with another medal.

Which brings us to the logical question: Which guys will they be?

Now I don't want to step on anybody's toes here but I do think it is only fair to share my opinion, so please no one take offense.

The following guys already have PRs under 9:20 or 4:17 from this year's medalists:
Russell, Macauley, Harriman, Coyle, Quinn = 5

It is only reasonable to expect these 5 guys to perform at this level around next year, although it is by no means guarenteed. I will assume that one slips up and injuries or misfortune strikes and only 4 of them hit the mark. These leaves us with 6 to pick from out of the remaining medalists. My expectations at this point are:
Norris, Martin, Kennedy, Barchet, Stone and then Zingarini

Kunzweiler certainly could do it in the right mile race and Pondel has potential in the 2 mile this spring but those are just my gut picks.

As for the medalists here are the 14 guys I expect to grab medals:
Russell, Kennedy, Norris, Martin, Macauley, Harriman, Coyle, Zingarini, Barchet, Kunzweiler, Stone, and Pondel.

This one also could have a lot of variation. I think Savage and possibly Kevin James grab a relay medal as well (DMR indoors). Colin Martin may be a sleeper. He killed it down the stretch indoors. And of course all the guys from outside the big 3 districts (1, 3, 7) are hit or miss based on the competition they get in smaller meets throughout the season.

Emery and Ferruzzi took the same spots that Todaro and Russell took last year so watch out for them going forward although they didn't quite get medal spots.