Hey folks, it’s been a while. I go to the University of Delaware and we just got back to school two weeks ago, so I’ve been busy with new classes, student council, frats, and just bonding with my hall again. So that’s why I’ve been MIA on Sundays (if you even cared haha). So, let’s talk track.
There were a TON of great performances over the last few weeks, way too much to cover in one post, so I’m just going to cover MoC and do States predictions
Emma Keenan won the meet pretty easily in a 57.13. It seems as though she is stressing speed this season rather than strength. She usually the mile at least once indoors, I guess she’s confident in her strength this year coming off a good XC season.
The 800 impressed me the most with Seline Tan-Torres battling it out with frosh Olivia Sargent. Tan-Torres has been looking good all season and will carry her MoC win into States. Sargent on the other hand is doing exactly what she did during XC season. She starts okay, but comes on strong late in the season. She’s only run it twice I believe, so that’s a solid mark. Rachel Flynn not too far behind. She just won PCL’s and was about a second behind the winner at MoC. She’s ready to go. Her 2:18 is the best she’s ever run indoors, so put her on a banked track, I’d say she’ll be close to her 2:13 outdoor PR. She turns it on at States.
Veronica Eder has been on all season. Her mile win shows that she’s ready to go at States. She’ll be doing the 3k no doubt. Solid win by her. Soph Jamie Costarino .gave her a race. She’s been dropping time all season and is one big race away from a medal. If she continues her streak of dropping 3-8 seconds per race, she could land herself a medal.
Stephanie Aldrich runs one last 3k of the season to see what she can do before States. With their early season DMR, she’ll be most likely running the mile/DMR combo. Nothing really hot in this race, but that’s to be expected. Most people don’t run the 3k at MoC and States unless they’re trying to qualify at MoC.
On to States performances! These are the top 8 that I think will get in each event.
800
1. Emma Keenan- 2:08.5
2. Gina Alm- 2:11.5
3. Allie Wilson- 2:14.1
4. Seline Tan-TOrres- 2:14.6
5. Olivia Sargent- 2:15.6
6. Emma Cousins- 2:15.8
7. Devon Towell- 2:15.9
8. Rachel Flynn- 2:16.5
Mile
1. Sara Sargent-4:54.10
2. Marissa Sheva-4:54.11
3. Stephanie Aldrich-4:57.8
4. Brianna Schwartz- 4:58.5
5. Mary Malone- 5:00.2
6. Lindsley Greta- 5:02.9
7. Eliza Lukens-Day- 5:05.2
8. Rachel Flynn-5:06.2
3k
1. Courtney Smith- 9:44.1
2. Tessa Barrett- 9:48.3
3. Regan Rome- 9:58.8
4. Veronica Eder- 10:00.1
5. Tessa Ortiz- 10:05.2
6. Paige Stoner- 10:05.5
7. Brianna Schwartz- 10:08.2
8. Mady Clahane- 10:10.9
4x800
1. Great Valley- 9:18.6
2. Pennsbury- 9:19.8
3. Garnet Valley- 9:20.0
4. North Penn- 9:24.5
5. Strath Haven- 9:27.3
6. State College- 9:29.1
7 Villa Maria- 9:30.2
8. West Chester East- 9:32.8
DMR
1. Cardinal O’Hara- 12:00.1
2. West Chester Henderson: 12:08.2
3. Pennridge: 12:15.2
4. Council Rock North: 12:22.1
5. Saint Basil Academy: 12:23.7
6. Germantown Friends: 12:28.4
7. Central: 12:35.6
8. Mount Lebanon: 12:42.5
Those are my predictions. It was really hard to try to place teams, especially with ones that have athletes doubling/nice pieces, but not a total squad. I originally had Pennsbury winning the 4x800, but I am unsure of their two legs with the last name other than Sargent. I assumed they would have a 400 runner move up, but I couldn’t place them first because of my uncertainty. Since they chose the 4x800 over the DMR, I assume they are pretty sure they could win it (their chances in the DMR would have been pretty high). Great Valley had a similar issue. The 800 is pretty close to the 4x800, so Hajnik being in the open 800 made me wonder if they are doubling her, or putting another runner in her place. It’s pretty uncharacteristic of Great Valley to stack a hot relay and have one runner doubling, unless they know that runner has a chance to win States. Seeing as Hipwell is their #1 on paper, I wonder what their gameplan is. Maybe a runner on their “B” 4x800 at MoC ran fast enough so one runner could go open. Who knows. I could see Garnet Valley running away with this one just as easily as the other two teams and all four legs on Garnet Valley are fresh. The 4x800 will be a nice race to watch.
The 3k was just as hard to place. Easily the most stacked field at States. The top two were pretty easy to rank, but everything after that was tough. I literally had 6 names left for 8th place. I had to go with Clahane because of how strong she was during XC (4th place) and her dropping her 800 time down this past week. That will be another exciting race to spectate.
-RT”It’s good to be back”J
I love that you guys are starting to do a little on the girls side, but some notes about the Mile. 2 of your placers aren't running it: Malone & Schwartz. In fact, 7 of the top 15 in the state aren't running it, so it should be an interesting race. Having watched a few of the races this year, many of the top girls prefer a sit-and-kick race, even neg-splitting (it's what Sargent did twice at the Armory meets), so the race will probably develop the same way. Good chance someone medals from the 2nd heat as they have for each of the past 5 years. I'm assuming they'll run 10-10-9 from slow to fast, which would leave both Rachel Flynn and Greta Lindsley out of the fast heat.
ReplyDeleteKnowing a few people at Central, I'm sure they'll appreciate the vote of confidence for a 7th place in the DMR, but I think that time will require each of those legs to run their PR.
No Natalie Deacon of Henderson in the 800?
ReplyDeletePennridge girls should medal(gold maybe) in the DMR.
ReplyDeleteI agree that the 4x8 will be an interesting race to watch. I think it will be close. I'm extremely impressed with West Chester East's team, they came completely out of no where and mixed things up. They do have Devon Towell doubling but I expect a good race from them. Great valley is extremely strong and extremely fast and they will have a great race. Should be interestingI'm looking forward to seeing the results.
ReplyDeleteEast came out of nowhere to run 9:37 at MOC. It looked like the same 4 runners, Devon Towell actually ran 2nd or 3rd leg and made up a lot of ground. The rest of their runners looked like underclassmen not sure who they are but they held their own against some really good runners. I think they have a shot at medals because I think Towell is the only one running more than 1 event. Anybody know for sure?
DeleteWCE has Anja Kochendoerfer running the open 400 as well.
DeleteThey still have 2 fresh runners and Towell- who hates to lose. Plus theres plenty of time between the 400 and 4x800. If you look at indoor results they rarely raced anyone in the open 800 besides Towell so nobody really knows who they have and what to expect. Total mystery team and I like their chance at medals.
DeleteEast? Towell is really good and that's about it for them. If only the East teams ran half as well as they constantly post about how well they run...you know the rest.
DeleteNobody from east posts. Only cummings does and he doesnt talk about his team
DeleteAnd how do you know this to be a fact? Are you the "posting police"? Ridiculous claim, person from WCEast. Carry on.
Delete12:00 might be a bit of a stretch for OHara in the DMR. They are a great team though, I give them that. Germantown Friends 6th in DMR? Way faster than that. And where is CB East in the DMR? They should easily medal. Regarding the 4x800, it will take sub 9:15 to win the 4x8...it is loaded. It will be a close race and probably one of the best to watch all day.
ReplyDeleteSchwartz and Malone are not running the mile. It will be a great duel in that race though. Whenever you get Sheva and Sargent out there together you know it will be fun. What about Trucilla and Deacon in the 800? They both have PA top times, but you don't even have them medaling
Huge mistake on my part. I made a list of who I thought would be in the mile but when I cross checked I never scratched them out. For the mile, take out Malone )/Schwartz and put in Jamie Costarino in 7th and Kelsey Potts in 8th. Malone/Schwartz both would have done much better in the mile than in the 3k. I don't even think Malone will place in the 3k. It's generally not a good idea to run the 3k too many times a season, especially not the meet before States.
ReplyDelete3k...
Courtney Smith
Tessa Barrett
Regan Rome
Veronica Eder
Brianna Schwartz
Tessa Ortiz
Paige Stoner
Mady Clahane
Pennridge has a great DMR squad, but I didn't place them winning for two reasons. 1. O'Hara is going in completely fresh and their anchor has been dropping time like crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if she was around 5:02 for the anchor. The rest of the legs are looking good as well, but I didn't mean 12:00, I meant 12:05. 2. WCH has already run 12:13 and I believe Deacon will go off on the 1200 leg. I didn't have her getting a medal in the 800 because she hasn't been looking like herself recently, but I believe she'll come back for the 1200 leg with a vengeance and run a killer leg. I believe the only leg (besides anchor) that will close any gaps will be Pennridge's 400 leg. By the time Aldrich/Sheva get the baton I think WCH will have about a 9 second lead. Aldrich also isn't a sit and kicker, she takes the pace out so Sheva will have to push it to catch up and then try and take her the last lap which I don't think will happen. I gave them third though and a fast time.
GTF will have their anchor off the double from the mile. I have her PRing in the mile, so I don't think she'll get another PR that day which is why they are 6th. CB east won't have Eder unless she's doubling from the 3k... either way she won't be that effective. Their 1200 leg Hawley is also doubling... so I can't see them being effective. I doubt they will even run an "A" squad.
States isn't always about top PA times (usually though). The reason I don't have Trucilla on there is because she ran her 2:16 out in Ohio where it's a 300 meter, banked track I believe. On that track for her to be in a top medal contention I'd want around 2:14 or so. Oliver Philogene ran fast on that track and much slower come States when it was only 200 meters. Deacon as I said earlier hasn't really looked like herself. This time last year she was about a second faster on a flat track. I don't think she'll medal in the 800, but I do think that'll piss her off and she'll drop around a 3:37 1200 leg.
The 4x800 will be a fast race. GV has a squad that looks like all four legs will be under 2:20. Maybe a couple 2:15's. Pennsbury has the Sargent sisters, but after that... who knows? I assume Sara will be anchor and Olivia will be second leg, but as for the other two girls, I'm unsure of. Garnet Valley has a solid group, I expect a huge split from Katie Keyser, a 2:14 soph. I think this race comes down to the line ups. Whoever can create the best line up will win. Like Pennsbury wouldn't go out and put both Sargents up front and let their weaker legs run out in no man's land where they would get swallowed up by the chase pack. It should be interesting to see who is placed where.
-RTJ
Who is on O'Hara's team? Another case of the "best team nobody ever heard of."? Still think 12:05 may be overly ambitious but bully for them if they can pull it off. Aldrich has dropped sub-5 mile the past few times she ran and I have a feeling Sheva may be tripling at States doing 2 relays.
DeleteOharas team is grace Mancini Allison sharkey marrissa cicconie and Amy kelly
DeleteWhy isn't Schwartz running the Mile at States? I watched her 4:57 at TSTCA, and it looked like she was cruising. I really think she could have been right there in the mix if she had decided to run it again.
ReplyDelete