It's Valentine's Day! So to show my love for all of you guys out there I have decided to make a Meet of Champions preview! Hope you enjoy! Also if all goes right, I will be there covering the meet so keep an eye out.
I'm making a few educated guesses here so feel free to correct me if one of my assumptions is wrong.
The first event of the day on the distance side is appropriately the Distance Medley Relay. Now the mile and the DMR are fairly close together at this meet which makes me think teams with top milers in the mile won't be running their A squad in the DMR. Some of those teams with top guys in the mile are CB East, Upper Dublin, Bensalem, North Penn, Bonner, Pennsbury, Great Valley, CRNorth and West Chester East. Throw in Strath Haven to this list because Huemmler is racing Millrose.
Great Valley and East still may opt for the DMR and then have their guys double back, but I think both teams feel confident that although their marks are not under the SQS, they will qualify for the state championship meet. I guess that depends a lot on how fast the DMR is. Also LaSalle is at Millrose going after the state record so they probably won't run any fast relays.
So who does this leave with the potential to run fast in the DMR? O'Hara, DT East, GFS, HGPrep, Penn Charter, Penncrest and Pennridge. I think O'Hara and GFS will both field very fast relays for this race. Their big guns aren't listed in any of the open races and that makes them very dangerous to drop big times at this race. Possibly a performance in the low 10:30s. Penncrest would be a sleeper pick here if they decide to stack their relay. I'm not sure they will, but that 8:11 still sticks in my mind as proving this team can take the next step. HGPrep has been going after the SQS for weeks now and coming up short, this is their lost shot at it and I wish them the best. I'm hoping to see some teams come out of nowhere and run sick DMRs in this meet, but I honestly can't guess who they would be. Maybe Penn Charter if all goes well and Szuhaj is ready to roll.
The 1 mile should be an exciting race. The big names are guys like Chris Berry, Alec Brand, Jake Brophy, Eric Diestelow, Francis Ferruzzi, Kyle Francis, Jack Macauley, Will McDermott, Max Norris, Conner Quinn, Brad Rivera, Sam Webb and James Zingarini. This group should make things pretty interesting in a tight race. I'm actually not even sure all these guys will be in the fast heat because of the depth of the field. I like Norris to take down this race, I feel like he is really running well right now. Zingarini would be my pick for 2nd in this race. He is a very solid miler and is likely just starting to come into his peak. This will be a good test to see what kind of shape early season studs Macauley, Berry and McDermott are in. Macauley I believe has been struggling with some injuries so it will be interesting to see how he finishes. My big sleeper pick for a top finish is Kyle Francis who I think has a 4:22-4:24 kind of time in his legs. I think he could really surprise this field. Brad Rivera has run a lot of 4:28-2:29 type miles. Maybe this is his race to break out. Sam Webb and Conner Quinn are more 3k guys, but both have proven they have solid speed. This should be a nice tune up for Quinn before states.
I expect this race to get an extra 10 or so guys on to the state qualifying list in the mile to add to an already lengthy list. Some of the sleeper picks to hit the SQS include Brendan Billotta from LaSalle as well as his freshman teammate Patrick Grant. Both guys ran great DMR splits last weekend and Grant is really rolling now as just a freshman. He still has the potential to drop a lot of time. The only way these guys run at states is if they hit the SQS this race. Billotta is iffy to know if he even will run at meet of champs because LaSalle wants to go for the state record in the 4x8 later that night at Millrose. Curtis Watro, Matt Willig, Adam Bodine and Trey Crump are all sleeper picks for a time around 4:32-4:35 that would put them close to the state mark.
The guy who should be most interested in this mile is Tony Russell. He has to hope there aren't too many guys who break his 4:24 mark from early in the season and knock him out of the fast heat at states. I think from a spectators stand point I am hoping for the same thing.
The 800m field should provide for an interesting race. It is a sleeper pick paradise with guys like Chandler Mattis, Dylan Butera, Armond Cox-Finn, Billy Caldwell, Graham Allen, Dave Garton, Christian Sanders and Nick Scarpato in the field. The 800m field at states is fairly wide open after the top couple spots, especially with John Lewis absent from most 800m results. He is running the 400m this weekend and that should help him choose what he wants to do at states. Christian Sanders is entered in both the 4 and the 8 so it will be interesting to see what kind of marks he can hit with that kind of schedule. Nick Scarpato is a real sleeper here, he is definitely a name to remember in this field. Then of course there are the big dogs of this field, guys like Dan Alexander, 1:56 state medalist last year, Jeffery Wiseman, Brad Rivera, and Andrew Stone. This is a bit of a state championship preview if all these guys race, although we are not sure exactly what the plan is for Stone with Millrose that night. I think if Stone is in the race he is the favorite to take it down, but Wiseman is my pick in this field on a big kick to win it. Kyle Francis would be dangerous if he wasn't doubling I have to imagine, but doubling will be tough. It should be good practice for the Bensalem boys to see what kind of doubling ability they will have by states. Rob Simmins, Avery Scripture and Conner Quinn are other names to watch in this field. It will be interesting to see what Quinn's speed is like and Simmons could play a key role in CRN's DMR. Scripture ran around 1:55-1:56 last year and may be a sleeper pick to hit the SQS and place well in this field. If you are looking for deep sleepers the two boys from CB South Pettit and Chappell would be good calls. Their 4x8 just missed the SQS earlier this year and I guess they are not going to try and hit it at this meet which leaves the door open for the individuals to break out.
Lastly we come to the 3k, which should provide its usual excitement as a bunch of guys will chase the SQS. The big name out front is Ross Wilson who has been on a roll this year and is the right race away from running 8:50. He will be flanked by teammate Mac Emery who ran 9:11 outdoors for a full 3200m so he can definitely hit the 9:00 SQS in this 3k at Lehigh. To help keep things quick the field has a crew of solid runners including Will McDermott and Jack Macauley who I expect will both be on the double from the mile, if this is a no scratch meet. Both could run sub 9 marks even on the double if all goes well. Chris Kazanjian has been struggling with injuries as of late, but if he is healthy he could give chase to the state mark as well. Then of course, you know the O'Hara boys will be chasing the mark. Pitone and Pastore will give it a fresh run this time and both can certainly hit the mark. I like Pitone in this race and I'm hoping he can dip under 9. They both had a tough double last week so it will be interesting to see what they have got in the tank. Chris Cummings had an agonizingly close finish at Henderson on Tuesday and now has to come back and try for it again at Lehigh. It is going to be tough to run two 3ks within a span of 5 days. If he can pull this off it will be a true testament to his guts. Matt Willig on the double, Matt Greco and Alex Balla will be the sleepers in this race. Great comeback story for Greco after that collapsed lung. Ben Szuhaj is the biggest boom bust sleeper of the group. He has been off the radar as of late, but early in the season he dropped a 9 flat 3k mark that just missed the SQS. If he is on his game he could win the whole race.
Lastly we have the 4x8 which should provide us with a few teams that hope to add their names to a less than stellar 4x8 field at states. Abington headlines the list of sleepers with possibly CB South and CR South depending on doubling. CB South and Abington need the SQS still and CR South is one of the best 4x8 squads no one is talking about with Wiseman on the anchor and an 8:12 to their name already. Other teams of note include O'Hara, CB East, Great Valley, North Penn, Upper Merion, Upper Dublin, West Chester East, Haverford, Springfield Delco, Strath Haven, Malvern Prep, DTWest, DTEast, Harriton, Penncrest, Pennridge and Upper Darby.
So yeah basically the whole field.
Malvern Prep has a fresh group running it seems and one of their legs just ran sub 2 on Tuesday night. DTWest has a fresh group as well and boasts a killer DMR mark already this year. They are a very dangerous relay squad, but Ken Leidal's injury really hurts their squad, especially in the DMR. All the more reason to load up a 4x8 this weekend. Upper Merion has a couple solid legs in Cooper and Sanders, but I'm not sure what they have beyond them. CB East and Upper Dublin both have the ability to hit the SQS mark just for fun in this race. It's hard to imagine them bailing from the DMR. You never know what's going to happen with Great Valley and WC East. They have to qualify in something, just too talented to come up short. Harriton is interesting almost purely because of Norris, but they do have a few solid legs in there as well. Upper Darby made a big effort to get to the SQS at Henderson. They didn't quite get there, but they were close enough to warrant going for it one more time.
Then you have teams like North Penn, Penncrest, DT East and Pennridge who all may push for a really fast mark at the meet. Pennridge is almost a certainity to go for a really fast time. I think that gives them the edge in this field. Penncrest is talented for sure and may put fresh legs on the track and chase down an 8:05ish mark. DTEast we also know as a state contender this year and North Penn loves the 4x8 so I'm never surprised by the times they run. O'Hara and LaSalle both could potentially put something together here, but I think they have other goals for this weekend. Same goes for Bensalem.
Hope to see this all go down in person! Should be a great meet.
Is the performance list the actual competitors in the races? Or just listing everyone who has qualified?
ReplyDeleteit is the actual entries for the meet, although i am being told now that the meet is not a no scratch meet so ppl entered in certain events may not run ... no seed times were listed .. the list is up on penntrack if ud like to take a look and at tfcaofgp.org at the bottom of the page
DeleteI'm a little surprised Russell hasn't run a recent open mile to improve on that 4:24 for seeding at states. He could have gone after a lower time at that Last Chance meet. If WCH is not running anywhere this weekend, I'm guessing there’s no concern because he may not be running the mile at states. WCH doesn't strike me as a team that would leave something like that seeding to chance.
ReplyDeletePerhaps they’ve decided doubling in the 3K and DMR makes more sense. Both the mile & 3K are very deep this year. I believe Russell is capable of winning either but his chances are much better in the 3k, particularly if fresh. The mile is really stacked. With Coyle,Huemmler,Harriman running so well, it should be fast and probably a very close finish. It might take a 4:15 or better to win the mile and that pace would certainly take something out of anyone coming back in the 3k. That’s a risky double, anyone could get outkicked in that mile and then be a little flat in a deep 3k race, going against guys who are fresh. There's a real chance of coming up disappointed in both.
The 3K/DMR is probably the safer play. Russell fresh in the 3k would probably be the favorite. Just about everyone is doubling in the relays. The WCH DMR with Russell and now Chaborek back in the mix would have a very legitimate shot at DMR gold, especially if LaSalle goes after the 4x800.
Just speculating, much more likely though WCH knows a lot more than me and are confident that 4:24 will get him into the fast heat of the mile.
-RJJL
I highly doubt that he will do a 3k/DMR double, that'd be close to suicide. He won't win the 3k off a kickers pace, in my mind, so he'll have to push, which means he'll be fairly spend afterwards, with minimum time to recover. On the results for the NJ Varsity classic they have the DMR and 4x8 back to back where he went 3:02 and then 1:58.9, if he did that with 30 minutes or less recovery then I could see him going like 8:35 in the 3k and coming back with a 4:20 or so anchor in the DMR.
DeleteAs for him making the fast heat of the mile he's what I got:
Huemmler, Harriman, Coyle, James, Leidal, Groh, and Aziz. Russell is next at 8th. James is the only guy I see not racing in the mile (other than Stone who I already took out).
Potential Passers:
Zingarini, Norris, and one of the Bensalem kids (i'd guess Francis, but Rivera could do it, but I put him at 4:26) who are racing each other this weekend. If Macauley is totally healthy I could potentially see him dipping under 4:24, but I doubt it. So that puts Russell at 11th, maybe 12th.
Then from the west, guys like Martin could run to try and jump into that top heat (he's 9th now and would be pushed out). But i doubt he does that. Cather i probably running in a relay, but we'll find out soon. And I don't see Smathers going 4:24, but then again the kid is a 4:12 guy...
The chances are really low that Russell gets booted out of the fast heat, I think he'll be fine. And if he is in the slow heat I think it may even benefit him. Think about it, he'll push the pace and go 4:12 or so by himself, not having to worry about any kickers behind him. That'd force Coyle and Huemmler to push a pace and not make it a kickers one where they would sit on him, and one of them may blow up, giving Russell 1st or 2nd, and not 3rd behind the two of them.
--ForrestCRN
If anyone would bother to read Tony's tweets you would see that as of now he is doing the mile and 3k double.
DeleteYep, that is what Tony said. But what does Coach K say?
DeleteAfter all, do you go for team gold in the DMR or go for individual gold?
Is Henderson for sure doing the DMR? They have a decent crew of 800 runners to make noise in the 4x8.
DeleteYou are never sure with Henderson. That is why we call them the Kremlin.
DeleteThe 3K/DMR double is not suicide, guys do it all the time. In between races there's the boy/girls 4x200 & 4x800 with all of their heats, and then the girls DMR. There's at least an hour and a half. Not perfect but it is enough to go all out in the 3K and come back with a quality DMR contribution.
DeleteNot to be mean, but I challenge you to find a guy who has pulled of the double successfully over the past few years. Maybe Jason Weller did? Maybe. And he was one of the best doublers the state has ever seen. It's doable ceratinly, but to be at top form in both races is very challenging.
DeleteHonestly, I think the debate is probably unnecessary as I expect Russell to be running mile-3k. Soloing 4:12 I have to imagine would be brutal. I'm not sure anyone in the state right now could solo a 4:12 full mile. However, if anyone can do it, it's certainly Russell. I hope he is in the fast heat, makes for a much more exciting race in my opinion.
Is Ohara running their hot dmr?
ReplyDeletehotter than Etrain's date on Valentine's day ;), and thats pretty tough to beat...
DeleteEtrain will you be my Valentine?
ReplyDeleteAlso, scratch Leidal. He stated on etrains blog that he"s out for States with a pulled hamstring. Too bad for him-hope he heals well for Outdoor.
ReplyDeleteTony is currently 6th on the list. Stone and James probably won't run the mile so that puts him 4th. Do you really think 6 or 8 new guys will run faster then 4:24.53 this weekend. He won't be solo. Huemmler and Coyle will be banging away. Huemmler has a real shot as long as it gets out fast.
ReplyDeleteIf WCEast is running their "A" team in the DMR, Diestelow might have to anchor it on the mile leg. I doubt he'll be running the open mile.
ReplyDeleteThis implies that WCEast has more than 1 team to run-don't think that's the case.
DeleteAny results from State College?
ReplyDeleteRussell is in 7th on my list of who I think will run it and I don't think they will kick him out. Remember: they don't adjust times, so Russell still loses to the people that ran 4:24 on a banked track. Even if a bunch of people do (like Norris, Rivera, etc) I don't believe they will even run the mile so he will be fine. Also, keep in mind that Chaborek isn't qualified for anything at States, meaning a he will be in a relay, probably a DMR. Even without Barchet/Russell, Henderson can throw down a fast DMR with Chaborek leading off or anchoring. Chaborek, Rimkis, Moy, and Hall (400 leg) could make a solid DMR.
ReplyDeleteKevin James will probably do both the mile and DMR... why not? He ran 4:22 and 8:54 on a flat track... there's no reason he can't run even faster on a banked track with a significantly longer break. I don't believe he will win either (even if fresh), but I do believe he could medal in both. Dan Savage is another story. He doesn't have that mile speed, but does have the 3k speed and experience to take home gold (especially if Russell is doubling).
I really hope WCE makes it. They've been so close all season long, same for my boys at GV.
Unfortunate turn for DTWest. Leidel was major in all of their relays. I still believe their other legs can step up and get them in good position. The DMR is out for them though, 4x800 is the only logical option.
-RTJ
RTJ what do you mean they don't adjust times? For the sake of seeding Russell's time and all other flat track marks will be converted to banked track marks on the performance list. Look at last years and the year before and so on if you don't buy it. Otherwise there is no advantage to running on a flat track unless you are on the edge of an SQS.
DeleteAlso I agree that Henderson could run a solid DMR. It somewhat depends on what the other teams do I guess. If Pennsbury and LaSalle both pick the DM at states then Henderson and Bensalem are co-favorites for the state title in my mind, even without Russell and Barchet which is saying something. Bensalem I would expect to win but a completely fresh Henderson 4x8 would give them problems. They could Pennsbury too honestly. Pennsbury won't have a fresh team either (at least 1 guy doubling if not 2). Henderson will have a fresh Chaborek, Moy, Thompson, Miller, maybe more guys I don't know of? Collins is likely in the 3k at this point but Henderson has 4 2 flat or better guys on the roster for sure at this point that aren't qualified in anything else.
DeleteMeanwhile in the DMR you could have a field with some combination of LaSalle, Pennsbury, CV, Bensalem, O'Hara, GFS, Strath Haven, CRN, DTW (?) and Bonner who would all be sub 10:40 and give problems to Henderson
For me personally when you take Russell out of the equation the 4x8 is the easy choice, but I see the other side of the argument I suppose.
I'm not sure what to make of O'Hara at all. They may just go crazy and let all their qualified individuals run their races and see who they have left to piece together a relay. After what they did at PCLs they could have a DMR that would compete for a state title and definitely make Penn Relays. However, I think it is unlikely that we will see them opt for a fresh DMR.
I'm guessing something like Pastore, Belfatto, Biche and Boyle in the 4x8 with Belfatto on the double. If Pastore qualifies individually in the 3k then maybe throw Smart on the relay.
James doubles mile-3k in this case, Savage just the mile, Pitone takes his pick of 3k or mile or both (assuming he qualifies in the 3k this weekend) and Pastore the 3k.
A lot of speculation certainly.
So many exciting questions still left unanswered! I'm looking forward to it.
woops meant to say savage just the 3k, thats a type-o
DeleteYou think Savage will go for the mile over the 3k? Also, O'Hara's guys were so close in those 4x800s that It may not affect them as long as Belfatto and Boyle are in it. Even off the double they can get around 1:57-1:58.
ReplyDeleteI see your point about the 4x8. I couldn't remember the Henderson 4x8 splits so I didn't want to say 4x8. Also, LaSalle scares me for that 4x8. If they get that state record I'd like to think they go DMR at States, but if they are that low under the second best in the State, they may just run to win and run at Natonals to get the DMR State record.
Pennsbury is an interesting case. Sam Webb has not qualified for the 3k, only the mile, which he is running this weekend. I assume he is trying to lower his seed time, but I could be wrong. I think of him like Ross Wilson- more of a 3k guy, but maybe he will use that strength to pull off the mile, 4x8/DMR double.
My bad on the conversion thing. I thought about Jack Macauley being in the slow heat last year, but then I looked it up and saw he got his time on a banked track and a lot of the State got theirs on flat.
-RTJ
O'Hara-10:28. By themselves.
ReplyDelete