I grouped these together partly because time is not quite on my side this week, but also because outdoors there is only one distance relay (I do miss the DMR) although Penn Relays will be an interesting topic in the future for this blog. After Nats we will have a better idea of what kinda teams are going to be able to get into Penn.
So let's start with the 4x8. Obviously Bensalem really stepped up to plate, but the race was perhaps a little tighter than I expected having seen the results. Rivera on the double didn't quite really take off on the field on the lead off leg, but doubling is tough. Kyle Francis had a fantastic double, the last 200m he really destroyed the field, AJ worked hard to catch back up but Francis clearly was saving up. Looking ahead for outdoors Bensalem is a clear cut favorite for the state title in the 4x8. I'm assuming LaSalle will opt for the individual races, although if LaSalle wanted to they could run a great a 4x8. Henderson and Pennsbury, the two biggest pieces of biggest competition for Bensalem likely won't be putting their absolute best team on the track.
I think Bensalem, adding in Correy to the equation and with 4 fresh legs can probably split something around 1:52-1:57-1:57-1:53 depending on much they are pushed. That could put them under 7:40 which is pretty impressive, it would put them in an elite class. If we did get to see them matched up against LaSalle we could see LaSalle around 1:52-1:52-1:55-1:58 or something like that would also could put them under 7:40 and close to the Abington and CB West marks from a few years back.
And that doesn't even include CValley who are the defending state champions. CValley ran a solid DM indoors to grab 4th but they still gotta turn things around quickly to get to sbu 7:40 ability. Kunzweiler is a great anchor, but he has to make up 3 seconds on Rivera already and Coburn has to make up a couple seconds on Francis.
AJ is really coming along well for Henderson. He went from mono to 1:55 in no time. He would be a sick 800m leg for Henderson on the DMR right now and may even become the 1200 leg depending on how he continues to develop. Now obviously this is a serious extrapolation, but he could be a 1:51 split by seasons end. IF Henderson can have 3 legs keep them in, Chaborek, Kunzweiler and Rivera would make for a sick race outdoors. I'm not sure Henderson has the pieces right now on paper to even necessarily try and run a 4x8 at states and cost Chaborek individually Their absolute A team with Russell and maybe Barchet could probably be pretty sick. There is a lot of potential for fast relays this year.
Looking down the list, Pennsbury really had a big race at states. I was really impressed by how well they bounced back from some tough races in the past couple weeks. O'Connell ran a very solid leg and Sauer bounced back very well from Millrose. Plus Harriman had a great leg, I was really surprised he could run 1:57 on the triple. And Sam Webb is a guy who runs with a lot of guts. He was working really hard to keep his team up front even though he is probably way down on his range at 800m. Pennsbury is a very solid team and I hope they go DMR at Penn, but likely individuals will rule the day for them late in the spring.
O'Hara can run a solid relay as well, but they are going to have to find a piece that isn't Savage for the anchor. Just too much to ask him to hang with those true 800m guys on the double from the 3k. That's an incredibly tough double to do and outdoors its no easier. Belfatto should develop into a nice 800m leg for them and I think he can anchor the team home to a fast time. I expect these guys to have a nice DMR at Penn as well.
State College should opt for the 4x8 outdoors as well. They ran 7:51 last year and I bet they can cut down on that as well. Cather is obviously a quality anchor, he ran a sick leg on the 4x8, around a 1:56 split for him to completely change the race on the anchor. North Penn is just always good at the 4x8. I can't believe they could run that time out of nowhere with Macauley, their best leg in my mind. Penncrest as well seems to always pull together a great 4x8. Even when Penncrest lost just about everybody from their 7:50 performance last year they dropped a sick mark in the 4x8 at states. DT East and Upper Darby will be better outdoors. They both are adjusting to being at the top. I'm a big fan of Caudwell, he is going to a factor outdoors.
As for the DMR, killer 1200m leg by Mac Emery. A man close to my heart now because of his running form similar to my own. Emery ran a very nice 3:09 leg with a gutsy move in the middle of the race. That was clutch and that is what set up the rest of the race. Rob Simmons was on the verge of a breakout to begin with and he really came up big with a 1:56. And Zingarini is solid.
Huemmler is a very tough guy, he fought hard and almost got his team a W. Coyle was pretty vulnerable on that anchor leg. To look at both of those guy and know they have been sick is pretty impressive to see what Huemmler did. Butera is a solid leg, hopefully he can develop as an individual, because Huemmler's individuals should trump the 4x8 outdoors.
GFS was a solid, but I think I underestimated the effects of the double on their mile legs. Wistar and Aziz are probably more 3200 guys than anything it seems. They may be able to sneak into Penn depending on how the season ends up.
Looking down the list that was a clutch race from Bonner. Nice double by McDermott but big stepping up by the middle legs and Sullivan. Those were the no name guys coming in and they stepped up to carry the team to their finish. I was impressed by DTWest hanging tough with Leidal out of the line up. That team healthy and fresh would have had a chance at being right with the teams in first.
Overall I think there are a lot of great 4x8s potentially outdoors, but it will just be a matter of which teams chose to put their pieces together for it.
Interesting results from the collegiate level. Ned Willig wins HEPS last week in the 1K and leads off the DMR tonight for a 2:54 ish performance
ReplyDeleteNed ran 2:54!? Good for him! How do you know?
ReplyDeleteLaSalle should have a 1:50/1:51/1:54/1:57 if fresh by the seasons end. They have a sick 4x800 set up. Not in that order of course. At the Penn Relays they should run a fast DMR. Each of the legs will have adequate competition and should allow Coyle to have someone to run with. I could see a 3:02/50/1:55/4:11. Coyle had a huge split last year (4:12 I think) and stone ran a 3:05 so assume they get a bit better and Magee could drop another 1:55 or close to it, they could go sub 10. I believe a lot in LaSalle.
What is Kyle Francis' PR in the 800? I've been hearing he could go 1:53-1:54 but what is his PR?
-RTJ
Ned running the 2:54 could bring up a new conversation. Are there any current former PA runners in college now who could feasibly break 4 in the next few years? It would be very interesting to see if anyone can do it.
ReplyDeleteNed ran a 2:53-2:54 lead off leg in the DMR at the Alex Wilson Invite at Notre Dame. The races were crazy fast. Brown ran 9:33 for the DMR and was in the bottom half of results. You can see the race videos on Flotrack. Brown is in the first heat with Penn State (who ran 9:26).
ReplyDeleteFrancis split 1:54 to anchor their 4x8 indoors on the double from the mile. Closed in like 27.
I was conservative with the splits for both relays. It is hard to project everyone to run massive PRs on the same day for a relay. It is really hard to have everyone click on the same day. Plus depending on how the races play out how easy will it be for Stone to run 1:52 or Magee to run a 1:55 if he is leading off and in traffic rather than being perfectly rabitted? I guess only time will tell. It will be nice to see LaSalle run those splits. That is about 9:58 or 10 flat with decimals which would be a PA state record.
As for the sub guys out of PA, I'm not sure how many the state has every had (Vandegrift, Miller and Bair are the only names I know off hand). Willig has the best shot out of anyone still in college that I know of (Owen Dawson who has graduated just missed going sub 4). Other guys who aren't completely out of sub 4 talk would be guys like Vanackeren and Crits, but this is realistically their last chance because it is rarely run outdoors and they didn't quite get down fast enough.
Magaha certainly has the most talent, if he can stay healthy, he could definitely break in sometime in the next 3-4 years. He and Willig could conceivably do it in the same race in the IVY league. Endress, another guy who has had injury problems, can do it as well. PSU has got a lot of talented guys in the middle distances to train with.
Luke Lefebure ran 1:49.1 on Stanford's 9:28 DMR on Friday night. That's going to be a great race on Friday with all of those teams in the same race.
ReplyDelete