State Predictions: 4x800m

4x800m
There should be two heats of the 4x800m, the first of 12, the second of 11. I also listed the names who I think will be on the relay for each team, although these are not official, just projections.
Projected 1st Heat:
1 Archbishop Wood 8:16.64B
2 Haverford 8:19.34 (Kim)
3 Phoenixville 8:18.50B (Timmons)
4 Chambersburg NS (Holder)
5 CR South NS (Doyle, Garfield)
6 Cumberland Valley NS (Flynn, Hartzel)
7 Easton Area NS (England)
8 Hempfield NS (Groff)
9 Hershey NS (Bekelja, DeWille)
10 North Penn NS (Trimble)
11 Penn Hills NS (Caitlin, Bailey, Squires)
12 Upper Darby NS

Projected 2nd Heat:
1 Abington 7:45.93B (Watson, Smith, Moran, Taylor)
2 CB West 8:01.63 (McGarvey, Bee, Manley)
3 LaSalle 8:04.21 (Muggler, Stone, Stone, Coyle)
4 Penncrest 8:03.24B (Robert, Cassey)
5 Lower Moreland 8:06.10B (Duda)
6 Spring Ford 8:10.72B
7 Pennridge 8:12.19B (Reed, Olindo)
8 Friend’s Central 8:12.78B (Sheltzer, Segall)
9 Holy Ghost Prep 8:13.04B (Horgan)
10 Downingtown East 8:16.14B
11 Strath Haven 8:18.61 (Collins?, Seelaus)

The first heat is made up of a lot of teams very close to the standard that didn’t quite hit it, but should still feature some fast times. A lot of these teams have very capable runners who will be on the double from earlier races which will play a factor. For example, Penn Hills has the pieces to run very quick but I don’t see them doubling very well, especially after last year’s DMR performance. CR South could mix it up with four fresh legs, Hershey returns everyone from a 7:51 last year outdoors as well but they have to key legs on the double. I think Haverford will most likely take down the heat, with Hershey, Cumberland Valley and CR South in the mix. If Penn Hills runs to their potential they will surprise and maybe take a state medal.

The second heat should of course be very quick even with Abington’s legs all doubling back. Assuming Abington is running at full strength (i.e. every member of their A team) it is their race to lose. However, I am picking CB West for the upset here in what should be a very fast race around 7:50 for both squads, maybe a shade under for CB West. I don’t like to pick against Moran on the anchor, but I think a completely fresh set of runners for CB West will clinch the victory. In the chase pack I think LaSalle will take third in a time around 7:55-7:57, they will be in contention until the anchor leg where I do not think they have a stand out runner. Lower Moreland I am picking for fourth in a bit of an upset but I think Penncrest will take 5th, both teams around 8:04, Lower Moreland closer to 8:00. I think Pennridge should run fast here as well, I don’t think they are that far off of Penncrest when Penncrest has runners doubling and Pennridge is fresh. I could see them beating Penncrest, but right now I have them a step off at 8:05 or so. I think the other teams do not have the fresh runners to run as fast as they did in qualifying although I think Friend’s Central and Strath Haven have good runners, I think the tired legs will stop both squads from placing highly. I have Strath Haven still running decent enough to medal in 7th. I’ll take a teams out of the slow heat (I’ll say Haverford 8th) for the final medal position.