State Predictions: Mile

It’s my favorite time of the year, when the performance lists are out and we know who is running what at the state championships. I was going to try and predict all the events on the girls and boys sides this year, but then I realized how truly little I know about those subjects. Therefore, I decided to stick to what I know best, the men’s distance events, and give more in depth predictive analysis. Here we go.

Mile
The mile will be the first distance event of the day, and things should get off to a fast start. With 18 entries in the race I expect two heats, the first of 9 the second of 9. That will slightly affect the way I see the race unfolding and my predictions.

Projected First Heat Entries:
1 Kennedy, Kiski Area 4:29.70B
2 Segall, Friend’s Central 4:30.89
3 Groh, Lower Dauphin 4:30.30B
4 Trueman, Springfield Montco 4:31.10
5 Horgan, Holy Ghost Prep 4:30.56B
6 Scarpato, Springfield Delco 4:31.56B
7 Waterman, Germantown Friends School 4:32.32
8 Seelaus, Strath Haven 4:31.90B
9 Waddington, CB South 4:32.91
Projected Second Heat Entries:
1 McClafferty, Conrad Weiser 4:20.82
2 Campbell, Council Rock North 4:21.43
3 Endress, Altoona 4:20.93B
4 Schrom, Central Dauphin 4:21.55B
5 Magaha, Upper Moreland 4:24.10
6 Barnhill, Downingtown West 4:24.74B
7 Gregor, CB South 4:26.80
8 Moran, Mt. Lebanon 4:26.37B
9 Libbi, West Chester East 4:29.11

I think the first heat will be won in a time too slow to medal unfortunately. I see too much talent in the second heat and I don’t think it will go out that slow. I expect Horgan and possibly Trueman to lead early, Waterman should be in the mix for the win in the heat. There are a couple young guns in this heat who may have a break out performance as well.

In the fast heat the guys everyone is talking about are the three up front: McClafferty, Campbell and Endress, all with PRs of 4:15.00 or lower for 1600m. I expect that with another race coming later in the day for him Endress will not be eager to take the pace, however I see Campbell, McClafferty and Schrom keeping this thing fast from the gun. Moran should be up in that mix as well. Barnhill and Magaha should hang back at the start and work their way up the pack picking people off. Magaha, however, is fairly unpredictable in his race strategy. A lot of people are talking about Libbi as a sleeper pick in the race, I like him, however I don’t see him making a huge impact at the meet. I have Endress in a very close race taking Campbell at the line with McClafferty just a step behind the two for third. Endress in about 4:16ish, Campbell the same, McClafferty very low 4:17. Then I think Moran will take fourth in about 4:19 or so, holding off a late charge from Barnhill for 5th and Schrom for 6th both in about 4:20. Schrom has the potential for a big race here just like last year when he won the slow heat, but I like Moran as my sleeper pick for this race as long as he doesn’t go out too hard. If Magaha keeps a steady head and races smart he could beat all of these guys in this pack but I see him saving too much and going by a fading Gregor and Libbi for 7th. I see Gregor and Libbi fighting it out for the final medal spot in somewhere around 4:23. Either could take it, but I’ll go Libbi by a nose because I like the fact that he has had some big, confidence building, wins this season.