So I'm sure many of you are wondering, what does the fact that Lehigh is the course of this race have to do with how well everyone runs in this JF Era XC championship race? Valid question. For starters it makes my job harder. Not everyone in this race will have raced on this course, unlike Hershey. In addition the Lehigh course this past year was a mess on district day (and many believe was slightly extended), therefore the times were significantly slower, especially the first mile. So in order to try and estimate an accurate comparison for previous years I assumed the course was exactly 30 seconds slower in 2009 than 2008,7 and 6.

Speaking of times, the fact that the race is being run at Lehigh means much faster times than any other course. At Hershey there would have been zero runners under the 15 minute mark, at Carlisle probably only one or two. At Lehigh in this coming race I estimate about 8 runners will be under 15. May be less yet also I could easily see more dipping under.

Now for those of you who don't know the Lehigh course has excellent footing, wide running lanes and very few hills, most of which are long and rolling. The last 1200m or so is virtually all down hill. Usually speed orientated guys can handle the course better than true cross country guys, who would dominate track guys on a course like Hershey.

This concept of the course benefiting some runners over others leads me to my next point: who are the winners and losers of this course decision? Here's a basic list I thought of answering that very question:
Winners
Paul Springer- Easily the biggest winner having run 14:47 at Lehigh already. It is tough to imagine anyone running faster than this time. The two next fastest guys were the two just behind Paul at the 2006 District Championships.
Kyle Dawson- Very underrated runner who has the benefit of boasting one of three sub 15s on the course in the JF era.
Chris Aldrich- Chris beat Mark Dennin at the District meet at Lehigh in 2007. Dennin went on to place the highest out of any PA runners in the JF era at Footlocker Nationals, meaning he may be the favorite for this race if it was on any other course.
Trevor VanAckeren- Don't sleep on the D11 guys they run this course too. Trevor ran a 15:33 to win his Distict meet as a Junior in 2006. He never medaled at states. Tim Stepp (runner up to Trevor in '06) finished 9th at states.
Ben Furcht- Undefeated on the course his senior with two wins going away. He knows how to run the last mile of the race.
North Penn- They really are a track school to begin with, throw in the fact that Bernitt, Quintrell and even Miles have run better statistically at Districts vs. States.
A few other guys worth noting: Matt Chylak, Pierre LeCorre, Dave Dennison, Tom Mallon, Vince McNally, Upper Dublin, CR North and Henderson

Losers
Boyertown Bros- Dennin and Weller both lost at their district championships before some very convincing state championships. Both would have had a much easier time handling Springer had they raced at Hershey. Throw in Tarsnane and the Pac 10 got screwed.
Sean Ward- One of Coatesville's unsung heros finishing 12th at states but finishing much farther back at Districts. He was only 7 seconds off his district time at states.
Cam Stauffer- Really knew how to run the states course well which is a tough thing to know. His expertise paid off in an 11th place finish in 2007.
District 2 guys- Mickas and Ayers took 5th and 8th respectively on the states course in 2008. Micikas didn't even break 16 at Paul Short that season.
Joe Beveridge- Absolutely owned the states course in 2007 and 2008. Did not do the same anywhere else.
LaSalle- They are a true XC team but they have yet to have a huge performance at the Paul Short Invitational.
Others who should be unhappy: Logan Mohn, Steven Welsh, Isaac Dunkleburger, Altoona

The first mile will be coming out ASAP so keep an eye out!