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Footlocker and Nike

When it gets to be the Thanksgiving season, it is nice to have things to be thankful for. I could sit here on the laptop and blather on to you sentimentally about what I am thankful for and all that stuff but I think that most people just want me to get back to talking about PA XC. And I'm thankful that I've got fans like that out there (I got asked for my autograph the other day, it was pretty awesome, don't get that opportunity that much). But this isn't about me, this is about what everybody out there has to be thankful for. And honestly, looking down the roster of PA entries at Footlocker and NXN I think PA has quite a lot to be thankful for.

Let's start at Bowdoin Park in New York for the NXNE championships. The top 2 teams automatically qualify and the odds are that this means CBA and one other team will make it through. I've seen Henderson beat Don Bosco twice now and I think they have only gotten better since then. It's hard for me to imagine Henderson won't beat Don Bosco again. That being said, PA is at a serious disadvantage: their championship season was practically a month ago. I've seen Henderson underwhelm me slightly at this meet in the past, but I am optimistic that this is a different team.

O'Hara is interesting to me as well. Clearly, like Henderson, they are also in great shape. Belfatto running like he did at the 2 mile time trial is very encouraging because they will need 5 solid guys without the front runner(s) that Henderson has. Kevin James is a bit of an X factor here for O'Hara. They need a tight top 3 pack and a solid 5 guy spread. I am confident if they get 3rd and are reasonably close to 2nd than they will get an at large bid to nationals. They have been just as good as Henderson all season, tying them at states puts them as just as likely to place second at regionals as Henderson. They just don't have the front runner that Russell is and that is huge in a race like this. But if you look at NA in 2008 they got by very nicely with a tight pack and no front runner.

Germantown Friend's will be in attendance as well but I don't see any signs to indicate they will be able to pull of the stunner that they did a few years back and mix it up for nationals. Sami Aziz, however, has shown signs that he is in the mix for a nationals bid as an individual. Lyle Wistar has also shown that he is a top 20 type guy in this meet. Russell, I assume, will be the top PA guy across the line but Aziz and Wistar will be among the guys trying to chase down the next PA spot. If Henderson does miss out on the chance at Nats, Russell should still get through to Portland.

I expect both Henderson and O'Hara to go through taking #2 and #3 in that order. I hope they are still hungry to run hard and run fast. Both sides are still motivated and I am sure O'Hara still has quite a bitter taste in their mouth that only a trip to nationals will strip. Henderson won the big battle, but O'Hara hasn't waved the white flag. I wish NA was running in the meet, although most likely my prediction for them to finish as the top PA team would probably be proven to be a tad too bold.

At Footlocker, here are the names I picked off the entry list that I found worth noting:
Colin Abert
Brendan Shearn
Curt Jewett
Sam Williams
Cole Nissley
Brent Kennedy
Connor Harriman
Sam Webb
Austin Pondel
Jacob Fetterman
Ryan Smathers
Rico Galassi
Luke Jones
Alec Kunzweiler
Jeff Groh
Dan Jaskowak
Ross Wilson
Max Norris
James Zingarini
Ben Ritz
Sam Ritz
Aaron Valoroso
Conner Quinn

And many more


For me Jaskowak is my most likely guy to get through to Nationals. He ran great at this race last year and he is a front runner with a kick. He will benefit from a fast pace and a deep field. He won't be afraid to mix it up out front. Shearn is also a top notch guy in this field. I'm sure losing the state championship stung hardest for him out of all the 2nd place finishers there were. He ran better than I expected at this meet last year. Both guys would be the first AA guys to qualify in a while. I think Jeff Weiss was the last guy to get the spot.

Kennedy and Pondel are also in the mix. Pondel will benefit from the slew of new front runners in the race, Kennedy has been Mr. Consistent this year in the top group of every race. The Ritz bros have the benefit of peaking for this meet. This is their states, not at Hershey so they can peak differently. That makes a big difference and they will hope to use it to their advantage.

Luke Jones, Connor Harriman, Max Norris and the Northeast Bradford boys are also in the mix for a top spot. I'd say Jeff Groh and Conner Quinn are deep sleepers here as well. Ross Wilson is a name worth keeping an eye on, perhaps for next year more than anything.

Ultimately, it comes down to who is ready for track season, and who is still pissed from states. That's how you run well at a meet like this. Should be fun to watch.

13 comments:

  1. Footlocker seems very wide opened this year, there is no real dominant runner in the race from PA like Wilson was last year. I'd predict Jaskowak and Wilson go through but predicting is really all you can do. As far as NXN goes it all depends on how the 4 and 5 runners do for Henderson and O'Hara. I'll say O'Hara gets 2nd and Henderson gets 3rd, with Russell and Aziz going through automatically.

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  2. I did a bunch of research on these two races for the CRN boys as they were making a decision on FL or NXN (they decided FL). Everyone keeps talking about O'Hara and Henderson as #2 and #3 in the region as clearly ahead of Don Bosco (which I agree wtih). But we are forgetting abou Hawks TC. They were a close 3rd last year and there entire top 5 returns. Teams don't seem to show a lot of cards in the northern states and I could not figure out who they were. So don't be surprised if they compete (their top guy was 15th last year as a freshmen).

    As for FL Regionals PA has a good chance of "Winning" the race as a state. They do this every year with the top 5 finishers from each state. I think PA has 5 in the top 13, but none in the top 5.

    My next post will be my top 19 guys for regionals. I did 5 1/2 hours of research on this list for Ross Wilson and if anyone needs further explaination please ask. I enjoy explaining my picks. Hope this helps, and good luck to everyone competing.

    --ForrestCRN

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  3. 1.Edward Cheserak NJ- Probably going to break the course record 1st last year
    2. Jonathan Green MA – Easy second he’s extremely talented 7th last year
    3. Will Betrand MD—Will lead the 3-6 group of guys
    4. Scott Carpenter MA – Great kick and should finish top 5
    5. Shawn Wilson NJ – Had a really solid year so far. Times lead him towards top 7 finish
    6. Brandon Shearn PA – I think he’s going to go for it, and it’s a good course for him
    7. Brent Kennedy PA—He’s really gutsy and I see him kicking his way to this place from like 15th with 800 to go
    8. Trevor Crawley RI – He’s got no kick at all and will be with Betrand and fall to this spot
    9. Luke Jones – He’s a very smart runner, he’ll take it out “easy” in the first mile around 20 to 25 and work his way up. Most guys will go out too hard and die like Galassi and Pondel
    10. Paul Hogan, MA – Been running solid, 30 seconds behind Green puts him top 10. (been 25 to 30 seconds behind Green at 3 different meets)
    11. Austin Pondel – I think if he can run with Kennedy again he’ll be in good shape to make it.
    12. Kyle Kroon – Too young to make it in, almost no SO does. He is very good, going to be top 5 next year. He’ll be top 7 most of this race but fade late.
    13. Vince Ciattei, MD – Very solid runner been running strong all year.
    14. Connor Harriman—He’ll kick his way here much like Campbell did. He may even get the 10th spot behind Jones, but I think he’ll be too far back to do so.
    15. Ross Wilson – He's got a shot at the 10th spot as well if he puts himself in position for it.
    16. Owen Gonser—20th last year and has had a solid XC season this time around.
    17. Nicholas Costello – Sat out this weekend, could be fresh or injured, I’m unsure. If he’s training to peak here he could be very dangerous (5th returner)
    18. Ben Ritz been training for this all year, just don't see him as a top caliber XC runner.
    19. Dan Jaskowak – He’ll fade to this spot. I think he’s one of the best guys in the state, but Grove City runners have never had good days at FL. I believe this trend continues. He did run well last year, but so did Kildoo. If he breaks this trend he'll be right behind Shearn.
    20. Rico Galassi – I see him going out hard like he did at states and dying a bit after the 2nd mile. He did hang on at states, but FL is different.


    One thing I believe in is trends when it comes to XC. Some teams run well and others do not. You may call this bias, but guys like Ross and James mot likely will run well at this meet. Why? Coach Marrington is the only coach to send more than 1 runner to FL Nationals. He has sent 3 since 1999. He knows how to get his guys ready for these later meets. Mostly by high milage that pay it's dividends. Runners for Grove City have not come through at these meets. I hope Jaskowak breaks this trend though.

    Another question is how do these guys race. A lot of guys in other states like MA had MIAA All-States last weekend. They will be holding their peak vs. PA and MD guys who had states 2 weekends ago and are trying to re-peak. Some guys benefit from diffent systems. But I think the top 2 guys will be far ahead. with 3-7 as a pack and 8-15 in a 10 to 15 second spead of tight racing and spot changing. Any guy in the top 20 could make it if they have the right day, FL is very tough to predict.

    --ForrestCRN

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  4. Just an update on Hawks TC. They are Bishop Hendricken High School from Warwick, RI. They won the state meet with a 4 second spead 1-5 going 3-7. (winner was 15:52 2nd was 16:05). And they wet on to win the XC New England Championships with 85 points. They scored 112 last year and went on to get 4th at NXNER with 134 points. Porter had a bad day at NEC (New England's) and was 3rd man, but he's been top guy all year. He was 15th last year, he could be in the top 5 if he has a great day. If you guys don't think they're a threat to Henderson and O'Hara you're crazy. They got a great pack that's really tight and they run smart, plus they were on the course last year wit top 5 and 7th man returning.

    --ForrestCRN

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  5. Why can't the teams run under their school name?

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  6. There are two nationals, Nike and Foot Locker. If only two make it from each, why doesn't O'Hara and Henderson split up? Henderson could take on CBA and Don Bosco at Nike Cross Northeast and O'Hara could enter Foot Locker Northeast Regionals (with CRN according to the site) and try to make it. Foot locker (Cali) national's course appears to be much easier than Nike's (Oregon)also, judging by the times run on both of them.

    -RTJ

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    Replies
    1. Footlocker is for individuals there are no team scores at footlocker

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    2. CRN says they are going as a team since 4 members of the team are going. Teams don't get scored at FL. The States that compete in FL regionals compete against each other though.

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    3. Thanks for the clarification. I was wondering why no one bothered to do that.

      -RTJ

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  7. The oh so brillant Penn Track guys (Writer Don Rich) posted this about NXNE Regionals. I put mine underneath. He's got at least 20 years of experience if not more. I've got 2.

    1 CHRISTIAN BROTHERS 30 3 4 6 8 9
    2 Cardinal Ohara (12) 94 2 5 20 31 36
    3 W Chester Henderson 100 1 17 23 29 30
    4 DON BOSCO 108 10 11 15 22 50
    5 BishopHendricken 139 14 19 25 39 42

    My Picks
    1. CBA 37 3 6 7 10 11
    2. WCH 92 1 5 23 30 33
    3. Hawks TC 94 8 12 15 25 34
    4. C O’Hara 97 4 6 20 32 35
    5. Don Bosco 130 9 13 16 24 53

    --ForrestCRN

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    Replies
    1. looks like don rich knows what he's talking about

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    2. team score was close excluding CBA's less than steler preformance but on the individual side he was way off.

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    3. Yeah, Hawks TC ran terribly, not sure why. But obviously not as good as I thought they were. But I was right about Do Bosco not being close to O'Hara and Henderson.

      --ForrestCRN

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