The Mile

Consider by some the glamor event of high school distance running because of its rich history and the powerful pursuit of the sub 4 minute mile, the mile is interesting event to follow as the years go by. 2 milers can move down and excel or 800m runners can move up and challenge themselves on an endurance level. It is a good mix and a good comparing point amongst runners.

Therefore, let us examine the results of the mile at indoor states over the past few years and see how these have compared to outdoors. First the last 6 years at indoor states results posted for you to see (medalists only):
1 Springer, Paul Unionville 4:12.61
2 Weller, Jason Boyertown 4:15.14
3 Zarzeczny, Lucas Avonworth/Northg 4:16.32
4 Alderich, Chris Henderson 4:19.59
5 Bryan, Isaac Pennridge 4:20.18
6 Buck, Ed Cardinal O'Hara 4:21.37
7 Hobart, TJ Baldwin 4:22.37
8 McNally, Vince Conestoga Valley 4:22.83

1 Kaulbach, Max Germantown Frien 4:15.80 10
2 Crits, Nick Wissahickon 4:17.47 8
3 Mallon, Sean Archbishop Ryan 4:18.66 6
4 McNally, Vince Conestoga Valley 4:19.31 5
5 Finucane, James Mercersburg Acad 4:20.58 4
6 Ortiz, Isaac Germantown Frien 4:24.65 3
7 Steller, Sean Unionville 4:27.00 2
8 Milic-Strkalj, Ivo Friends' Central 4:27.09 1

1 Milic-Strkalj, Ivo Friends' Central 4:21.19
2 McCullough, Matthew Malvern Prep 4:21.46
3 Chylak, Matthew Holy Ghost Prep 4:22.37
4 Horning, Dustin Elizabethtown Ar 4:22.65
5 Furcht, Ben Lower Merion 4:23.45
6 Perozze, Vince Perkiomen Valley 4:23.89
7 Eubanks, David Chambersburg 4:24.73
8 Tarsnane, Jimmy Perkiomen Valley 4:24.85

1 Mallon, Tom 12 Central Buck 4:16.21
2 Kehl, Tom 12 Father Judge 4:16.68
3 Endress, Wade 11 Altoona Area 4:18.37
4 Scarpello, Nick 12 Central Buck 4:18.87
5 Gil, Ryan 11 North Allegh 4:19.18
6 Perozze, Vince 12 Perkiomen Va 4:20.10
7 O'Kane, Tom 12 LaSalle Coll 4:20.23
8 O'Sullivan, Chris 12 Saint Joseph 4:21.64

1 Endress, Wade Altoona Area 4:20.90 4:13.34 10
2 Mcclafferty, Nate Conrad Weiser 4:20.12 4:15.24 8
3 Campbell, Chris CR North 4:20.73 4:18.30 6
4 Schrom, Ed Central Dauphin 4:20.85 4:19.10 5
5 Magaha, Drew Upper Moreland 4:23.40 4:19.51 4
6 Gregor, Austin CB South 4:26.10 4:20.44 3
7 Moran, Alex Mount Lebanon 4:26.37 4:21.50 2
8 Libbi, Nick WC East 4:28.41 4:23.28 1

1 Willig, Ned Great Valley 4:15.66
2 Coyle, Tom LaSalle College 4:16.42
3 Huemmler, Jack Strath Haven 4:16.50
4 Steiner, Logan North Allegh 4:20.76
5 Jaskowak, Daniel Grove City 4:22.82
6 Moran, Alex Mount Lebanon 4:23.15
7 Macauley, Jack North Penn 4:23.22
8 Rotz, Nick Chambersburg 4:23.45

Now looking down these results it is interesting to first note the most obvious feature: the champions. For starters Springer, Kaulbach, and Mallon all went on to focus on other events outdoors. Endress was hurt and Ivo was an independent league runner. None of these individuals finished with the fastest mile time of the season outdoors and none of them claimed a state championship at 1600m at outdoor states.

Next let us look at those who did win state championships outdoors. The 1600m champions of the past five years outdoors are widely represented indoors. McNally was 8th before his win, Crits 2nd, Palmisano and Kellar didn't race and Magaha was 5th. Weller won the 3200m (2nd), Mallon the 800m (1st), and Tarsnane the 3200m (8th). So many medalists have went on to have more success than the champions.

In fact, technically speaking (discounting 1500s) Kaulbach, Endress, and Mallon failed to run faster than they did in the mile at indoor states. Also able to boast that statistic is Zarzeczny, Buck, Sean Mallon, McCullough, Eubanks, Scarpello (sort of, if you discount the dual meet), O'Kane, and Libbi (I think but I'd have to double check the 1600m to mile conversion). So needless to say the indoor state medalists are not all huge successes outdoors.

Things vary here and are far from certain. There are also cases of those like TJ Hobart who followed up his 7th indoors with a 4:16 performance outdoors in a breakout race. Chylak also dropped from low 4:20s to 4:16, Horning into the 4:15s, Perozze into the 4:14s and then the 4:12s the next year, Kehl into the 4:09 range, O'Sullivan to 4:15, McClafferty to 4:11, Schrom to 4:14, Moran to 4:13.

And oh yeah, Magaha from 4:19 to 4:07.

Interesting to note also that about half the time, the winner in the next year did not medal in the previous. Kaubalch, Mallon, and Willig all can claim that in the past six years and Ivo was a few tenths away from joining them in a bit of a down year. Springer won the year before he repeated with a meet record in 2007.

So what to make of this next year's bunch? Well it looks fairly certain that at least one or two of these guys will take the leap from under the radar to stud. And it also, unfortunately, seems certain that one of them will fail to hit the same time they did indoors come outdoors. Ned Willig will have a hard time repeating as champion come outdoors, as none of the previous six winners have done so.

In terms of a percentage out of the indoor medalists, the one's who finished spring track with a PR under 4:18 for 1600m is 75% or 30/40. Meaning we can estimate that 6 of these guys will finish the season under 4:18. 4 already are technically (Huemmler, Coyle, Moran and Willig) so there would have to be two additional to fit the average.

One other fact worth considering, of this group only 20/40 (i.e. 50%) competed in the finals of the AAA 1600m outdoors. And 7 of those 20 came from last year, meaning that before then just 13 of 32 fit the bill.

Likely, Willig will be back to run the 16 (assuming all goes well with his health, I think he is hurt right now?) and Huemmler and Coyle will have to choose between the 4x8 and individual glory once again. Meanwhile Steiner, Jaskowak and Macauley both have excellent 3200m credentials and may opt to race there in a less competitive setting.

Also although there are 8 runners who have medaled that were not a part of the PIAA outdoors (none since 2009 when Ivo and McCullough took one-two however) there has not been a single AA medalist in the mile indoors over the past 6 years.

But remember folks I can throw all the stats at you I want, but it doesn't mean anything once the feet hit the track. Let's see what you got gents.

-train