Penn Relays!

So I'm trying to get back on track to post everyday. No guarantees.

Needless to say, I'm excited to hop online and see the official Penn entries and start planning out the early parts of predictions and analysis.

On Friday at 9:20, the first heat of the 4x8 trials will kick off and it will feature Penn Hills from PA to mix it up with other top teams from out of state. Penn Hills is an interesting team who has success before at 4x8 in the Penn Relays, making the COA two years ago in 2010 with Rumble and Anderson. Squirees was absent from the results this past weekend which worries me because he is a key #2 leg behind Will Baily. Baily should have one of the fastest splits of the weekend for PA if he runs to his potential after crushing a 1:55 solo effort this past weekend. He has split 1:53 before and I wouldn't be surprised if he back down around there at Penn. Penn Hills ran about 7:51 last year and 7:45 or so the year before that, both at the state championships so they are not easily overlooked here.

In the second heat PA will have much more representation as Strath Haven, Penncrest, Henderson, GFS and Lower Moreland all will be taking on the best from out of state. I thought Henderson could have gotten into the DMR on time, but appearently not as they will battle to prove themselves in a nice heat of PA talent. Out front Haven has to be a favorite coming off their huge DMR run, but I'm worried about their two legs that aren't Seelaus and Huemmler. The big duo have PRs that are both at 1:55 or faster and definitely have the ability to pull the team into the low 7:50s, but I can't see much more than that. Huemmler has the mile later that night to think about and if his team is out of it, that may play on his mind. That being said, he could go off for a 1:52 split like Cho and Lefebure have in years past and pull his team to the COA. For Penncrest, the heartbreak of indoors is over and their squad will be back with a vengeance. They have 4 fairly even splits which I think may help. If one guy has a breakout day (Emmanuel seems most likely, but Miller is no slouch) they could surprise in the upper 7:40s. Most likely, however, I see them in the mid 7:50s and battling their way to try and sneak into the COA. Henderson is interesting because it looks like there will be no Tony Russell who seems to have been injured, which kind of ruined their DMR shot. But AJ has proven he is a very capable 800m runner after a 1:55 split down in VA. The Penn Relays website last year said he split 1:53 on their DMR, so maybe magic is going to happen again for him and his team of unknowns in the 4x8. GFS has some solid legs like Aziz and Wistar. They may surprise here, but I think they'd be hard pressed to break 8 minutes. Wistar is on the only guy I could see on their squad running well under 2 minutes. Lastly, Lower Moreland should mix it up. If they lead off Dan Alexander, their 1:56 leg indoors, they'd be in the race from the gun. I know they also have a 2 flatish guy from outdoors so far so they have some talent and will be a AA force, but I can't really see them going anywhere below like 8:05 if I'm being perfectly honest.

In the first large schools heat, Pennridge, PA's super squad will take center stage, with Cumberland Valley, Altoona, Bensalem, Spring Ford and Chambersburg all also in the heat. These are a lot of really compelling teams. Starting of course with the reigning state champs Pennridge, who have Austin Kohler out front, dropping a 1:54 PR this past weekend. He definitely has 1:53 ability in him. Joey Logue already has been in the 1:55ish realm indoors in 2012 so if he is healthy and ready to roll that gives this team two very powerful back legs. And remember, although we haven't seen much from their front legs this outdoor season, indoors they were very capable, running around 1:58-1:57 splits. IF everyone is healthy they are lock for the COA. BUT proceed with caution because besides Kohler, there haven't been a whole lot of great signs in recent invites that all of 4 of these boys are where they were indoors. As for the other squads, Cumberland Valley has been the talk of the town recently after their dropped baton win. Now I didn't see the race so I don't know if 6 seconds is really an accurate estimate for how much time they can drop, but undeniably they can drop time. Kunzweiler had a big weekend last time weekend and dropped a 1:55 split. They had another guy double back under 2 minutes in the open. Both good signs. I'd guestimate they are going to run 7:53ish and maybe sneak into COA, but it's hard to say for sure. Chambersburg has Ryun Holder, who I'm a big supporter of, and they have Nick Rotz who is an unsung indoor state medalist in the mile. Plus they beat CV indoors. Haven't seen much from this squad outdoors, but Holder is a 1:52 split waiting to happen. Altoona surprised me this past weekend. I didn't think Mountain had the speed to be in the 1:55 range. That's a good sign. Replogle should also have 1:56ish ability that would mean in theory. So there is potential for Altoona to spring an upset in this race. The boys from Bensalem have had some solid 4x8s and 4x4s recently and if Rivera can return to 1:53 shape like last year outdoors, they could scare the 8 minute barrier as well. Then of course there is Spring Ford with Joe O'Such to watch out for. He's been hot as of late, coming off a 1:56 from scratch. He is used to anchoring on the big stage, last year he was Spring Fords anchor at Districts when they pulled off a top finish.

And last but not least, CB West, State College, and DT West will all toe the line in the final heat to try and mix it up for a top spot. CB West really surprised me at the end of indoors last year, but I haven't seen anything from their guys outdoors that makes my jaw drop. I'm a big Metzler fan, but the other guys haven't given me anything to make me believe this isn't an 8 flatish team. State College was already under 8 minutes despite the fact that I have no idea who anyone on their relay is. I'd just be interested to see if they can repeat their feat and learn who is splitting what on this up and coming squad. Lastly DT West, a team that was definitely on my sleeper radar indoors, as Leidal coming off a 4:23ish 1600 and Jenkins an open 1:57 race to lead the back end of their team. Devlin is back and I'm not sure if he is going to be able to make this relay, but the thought of him being back and hungry for a spot, should make those 2 flat guys work a bit harder. They could definitely sneak their way into the COA or at least find a way to run in the 7:55s and be pretty happy with their effort.

Look at all these PA guys with the potential for impressive splits in these 4 races:
Baily
Squirees
Kohler
Logue
Chaborek
Huemmler
Seelaus
Miller
Emmanuel
Wistar
Aziz
Alexander
Mountain
Replogle
Rivera
O'Such
Metzler
Jenkins
Leidal

And who knows who else will step up?

Anybody who gets any of their splits, be sure to let me know.

In the DMR the absence of top teams like Haven, Henderson, Holy Ghost and Altoona is certainly noticeable, but North Penn, O'Hara, Great Valley and LaSalle will all be teams to watch in the event. The talk in this race will revolve around Ed Cheserek taking on the national champion XC squad from CBA, but the PA guys should hold their own. North Penn obviously took a great step this past weekend hanging tough with O'Hara. Trimble on the 12 leg has serious potential to run with the race leaders and have a big day. Macauley has always been a tough runner as well and indoors did basically all the work to get to the podium as mile individual medalist. Here the team has 4 fresh legs unlike indoor states in the 4x8 and should run another solid time. Great Valley was the state champion indoors! People seem to be forgetting. But the GV squad, despite a solid sub 2 and 49 open performance from McCary and a PR from Willig at 1600m, has fallen of the radar without stud 12/16 leg Ned Willig. Wolffe hasn't shown signs that as anchor he can hold his own with a field of guys who will be in the 4 teens and Willig hasn't raced at all. It will be interesting to see if they opt to stick with Ned on the lead of leg, as the team may be out front in the early stages, but in the back two legs they really could get chewed up and spit out. One of the teams that could do the chewing would be LaSalle. Andrew Stone ran 4:19 this past weekend and has split 1:55 already outdoors. He is in 3:05-3:07 shape it seems at this point on this stage. That leg puts this team in the top pack, Magee is on the verge of a breakout race, and then Coyle has the ability to bring it home in 4:13ish if he runs smart. Lastly, O'Hara will most likely fly under the radar, but they ran a very nice time of 10:22 recently and Billotta ran a lot faster than I expected on the 1200 leg. They are essentially running this fast with 2 milers on either end of the DMR and a 400 runner who I think is very talent and an apparent up and comer in the 8. In theory if they have their day and run sub 10:20 that could give them a top 5 finish in years past, but assuming GV has 4 healthy legs on the line, its hard not to predict O'Hara will be the last PA team across the line, even if they do throw down a 10:18.


Quick side note, congrats to Brendan Shearn who managed to get into the Penn Relays 3k and will be alongside Hibbs and Wilson representing PA.