Penn Relays Predictions- Relays

Slightly out of order here, I'm hoping to do the 3k today as well but as of right now I want to get these relays done because I feel they are more important points. Ironically, right now the girls 4x800m Prelims are about to go off, and the guys 4x8s are exactly 24 hours away.

It will be interesting to see which teams can pull their way through to the Championship of America in the 4x800m. In 2010, we watched Penn Hills, LaSalle, Henderson, and Abington find a way in. In 2011, CB West, LaSalle, Abington, and Wissahickon were all participating. I may have missed a team here or there, but the numbers show, as of late PA has been represented well in the finals at this event, and I think the trend will continue. So I expect 4 teams from PA to qualify for the COA in the 4x800m.

But who?

Well my first choice is the obvious one: Pennridge. They are the defending indoor state champions, have an All-American squad indoors, and if not for a couple of teams in 2011 would be indoor state record holders. Outdoors Kohler has shown all the signs of being ready to step up and become a stud. If the other 3 can just split around what they did indoors they should soar through to the finals in low 7:50s, high 7:40s. That's a good sign to have proof like that. I am a little nervous that I haven't seen many fast times outside of Kohler so far outdoors while so many other squads on paper seem to be dropping time, but the fact of the matter is they don't have the stats on paper, they have the stats on reality. So I put them through, and expect them to be the top PA team in the prelims.

My second choice may surprise you but I'm going DT West in this one. I was on the bandwagon indoors for this team to be a sleeper pick, but I think we are passed the point of calling this team a sleeper. These guys had a 1:54, 1:56, and 1:57 leg in the OPEN 800m last weekend. Not many teams can say that (in fact I'd wager a guess that almost no other team in PA can say that for two legs thus far outdoors, certainly not three). And their 4th leg is either going to be Quinn Devlin, who has run 1:57 before and just ran 4:27 recently to bolster his credentials as being back in shape, or a 2:01 guy indoors who hopefully can raise to the occasion at Penn and dip under 2 minutes. On paper this squad is a 7:40s team waiting to happen. They have to put it together for a relay admittedly, but I see this happening tomorrow at Penn. I'm giving them low 7:50s and a trip to the COA.

My third choice was a tough one, but I have decided to go Chambersburg on this one. A 7:53 effort not too long ago shows this team is ready to roll. I like Holder, my indoor state champ pick in the 800m, and he should have people to run with this time which will only make the relay faster. They have two very solid legs, and although I usually prefer a bit more balance, this relay should still be strong. Again low 7:50s is a real possibility. They have to stay in it long enough on those 2 flatish legs to keep Rotz and Holder out of no mans land and in competition out front. I think they can do it, but that would be their downfall if it doesn't happen.

My fourth choice was fairly agonizing again. I went with Strath Haven on this one. They could easily be the top PA team. They have 4 fresh legs and Huemmler is coming off a 4:13 split while Seelaus has split 1:55 before. Those two legs alone with two 2 flat guys put you at 7:50. Huemmler is going to most likely have to do a bunch of chasing, and they will definitely need a fast split from Seelaus in the middle, if he is above 1:57 I don't see how they can quite get in the COA. Things are going to be very competitive around their spot and Huemmler may run out of room to catch the top group and qualify. However, he also has the potential to split 1:52s and land this team under 7:50. That's why I dropped them in here as my fourth team.

BUT I do think there are a few other teams I left out with realistic COA possibilities.

First off what about Penncrest? They were second indoors and they should still be strong. I stayed away from them because I haven't seen any outdoor results that make me excited to see this team go to Penn. Plenty of potential to surprise, but also way to much potential to underwhelm.

And how about CV? They have been under 8 minutes a bunch now this year and have a solid smattering of guys across the board. Their top 3 legs are all very solid with Kunzweiler, Coburn, the other guy whose name is escaping me right now who has broken 2 minutes in the open a couple times now are all very nice pieces. Kunzweiler definitely has the potential to break out at states. They would be my 5th team right now, just barely behind these other schools I listed above. Definitely don't count these guys out.

And how about Altoona? Didn't think Dylan Mountain had 1:55 speed, but apparently he does and that's a good sign considering Replogle should therefore have 1:56 ability or better. But I don't know much about the other Altoona legs. I'd have to bet this team will be mid to high 7:50s, but there is always potential if the lesser known legs drop some PRs to sneak their way into the COA.

GFS has a couple 4:19 guys and another guy right around 2 flat. They could crack 8 minutes for sure.

Lower Moreland would be a deep sleeper with their 2 guys under 2 in the open and Dan Alexander around 1:56.

Rivera is the guy to watch on Bensalem's squad. He has 1:53 ability and may be able to pull those guys to a big relay PR for the season. They ran 3:21 as a 4x4 so they have some great pieces.

CB West surprised me indoors in a big way down the stretch. If those guys can come back and do it again at Penn they will be under 8 minutes and that means they won't be far off COA most years.

Spring Ford has already run down around 8 flat more than once and Joe O'Such has been a powerful anchor leg for the relay. He has run 1:56 open in a winning effort so may be able to dip under 1:55 in a chasing posistion.

Henderson! Well how can you ever count these guys out. Well coached and competing hard year after year. Russell seems to be back in the line up and Chaborek is running very well. Maybe they will surprise here with a 7:50 mid run.

And lastly State College. I don't know who is on their relay at all if I'm being perfectly honest, but they have done what few teams on this list have: run under 8 minutes so far outdoors. Don't sleep too much on these guys because who knows if they are on the verge of breaking out in a big way at Penn.