Devlin Done For The Season
As many of you have probably heard, Quinn Devlin has a stress fracture and will not run cross country this season. He was one of the early favorites for the state championship this fall. The blog has not been able to reach Quinn for comments at this time, but sources close to Devlin indicate that he hopes to come back strong in the winter and spring and shoot for the 2 mile championship at outdoor states. This is another tough blow to the top 10 from the preseason rankings as more and more top ranked guys are faltering early in the season. He will not be on the rankings anymore so I figured I would throw this down on here for reference.
AA Rankings
So first off let me lay down a few facts that I want to clear up before I give a brief bit of AA rankings.
First off, my rankings are different than my predictions for states. I may rank Alex Moran and Logan Steiner fairly low now because they have not proven anything but by states time my predictions would look very different. For example even the week before states I had Gil ranked lower than I would have predicted he'd finish at states (I think I predicted him to finish 3rd and had him ranked roughly 5th, not 100% on that). So when I say I have Westwood as my favorite to win states, it is not as a result of his early season racing. Shearn has done much more in the past few weeks to prove he is a top ranked runner than Westwood so he gets to move up.
One more example, right now I got Jaskowak at 2. There's no way if I was betting on the state's race I'd have Hibbs not winnning, but rankings are designed to show what you have done for me lately.
Also I will not lie to you guys, my speciality is District One and AAA guys. AA guys and AA history is not my strong suit. I know it fairly well, I know where to go to find it, but I am by no means an expert.
So that being said, my AA rankings are going to look a lot like my overall rankings (except there are no AAA and independent league guys). But that does not mean that's the order I'm picking people to finish at states. So here's the rankings but you probably already knew these.
1. Brendan Shearn
2. LJ Westwood
3. Barrett Kemp
4. Sam Williams
5. Curt Jewett
6. Ryan Smathers
7. Luke Jones
8. Nate Tallada
9. Hunter Johnston
10. Nat Fox
First off, my rankings are different than my predictions for states. I may rank Alex Moran and Logan Steiner fairly low now because they have not proven anything but by states time my predictions would look very different. For example even the week before states I had Gil ranked lower than I would have predicted he'd finish at states (I think I predicted him to finish 3rd and had him ranked roughly 5th, not 100% on that). So when I say I have Westwood as my favorite to win states, it is not as a result of his early season racing. Shearn has done much more in the past few weeks to prove he is a top ranked runner than Westwood so he gets to move up.
One more example, right now I got Jaskowak at 2. There's no way if I was betting on the state's race I'd have Hibbs not winnning, but rankings are designed to show what you have done for me lately.
Also I will not lie to you guys, my speciality is District One and AAA guys. AA guys and AA history is not my strong suit. I know it fairly well, I know where to go to find it, but I am by no means an expert.
So that being said, my AA rankings are going to look a lot like my overall rankings (except there are no AAA and independent league guys). But that does not mean that's the order I'm picking people to finish at states. So here's the rankings but you probably already knew these.
1. Brendan Shearn
2. LJ Westwood
3. Barrett Kemp
4. Sam Williams
5. Curt Jewett
6. Ryan Smathers
7. Luke Jones
8. Nate Tallada
9. Hunter Johnston
10. Nat Fox
Top Ten Teams
So I'm trying this out but I'm warning you, I'm probably going to be pretty off. I haven't followed the team game as closely as I should but I'll throw down my thoughts and feel free to throw down yours as well. The usual rules apply about contacting me and giving me the dish so let me hear you.
As the Joker says: And here ... we ... go
1. O'Hara- Savage, Bilotta, Pastore, Ostrowski
So look I'm the first one to say throw times out the window when looking at whose the best individual/team and all that good stuff but you can't overlook the fact that O'Hara traveled out of state had a boatload of guys under 16 minutes, and beat some very good teams. That proved they were a legit title contender. You can make excuses for Lebo at Pre States and all that good stuff, but you can argue O'Hara didn't have their best day either with the whole Savage sickness or whatever. Here's the bottom line, O'Hara has got 5 real solid guys who know how to work together and pack up, just like last year. Only this year I think their pack will be up higher and the other teams around them won't be as deep. PCL teams have a knack for peaking at the right time.
Only thing I can find that concerns me is that if a guy gets hurt in their top 5 they don't have much of a 6/7 that I have seen to come save the day. We will see, but definitely the #1 team.
2. Mt. Lebanon- Moran, Tellin, Tramalgini
Alright so here's the thing Mt Lebo looked very good early on, Moran was an early state title contender and they had a tight spread and all that good stuff. Since the early season, however, they have really thrown up some flags. Tellin had an off race last weekend, whatever its one bad race on a sloppy course, he'll get over it. Moran has been having a few off races and hasn't been able to pull out any big wins, but he's a very talented guy who is working hard, he should be able to piece things together at the end of the season. But those things still worry me. It's not like O'Hara who has got big wins and all their guys seem healthy and continue to move up my board rather than move down. I'm hoping that they didn't train too hard in the summer or something like that. I doubt that's the case but it is a possibility. Gunz had a stretch kind of like Moran where Gil was beating up on him, but he still came back and got 2nd at states. We will see if Lebo has the same firepower at states that Rad did.
3. North Allegheny- Steiner, Appman, Some Freshman
So you don't want to rely too much on the young guys, but NA has done it before with Gil as a third man when they got third at states a couple years back. I don't recoginize a lot of names on this team, but admittedly, they usually churn out studs I've never heard of year in and year out. Up front Steiner doesn't look amazing but think about Gil and RWB and Carlisle, he got beat by plenty of guys and he still one states. Despite completely f-ing up his toe. So I'm not too concerned. This team always, always, always has what it takes by Districts and States. Haven't seen much of NA lately so its hard to judge but based on instinct I think Lebo should be scared.
4. Henderson- Russell, the kid who used to go to HHorsham, Barchet?, Grab
Speaking of young guys, cue West Chester Henderson. So many young guys in the top 3 and top 7. Always under the radar at this time in the season, but always doing high mileage and biding their time waiting to strike. They are always a force at Districts and States and are very well coached. But again the big names from last year (Stecklair, Andrews, Collins, Barchet) are absent for one reason or another (most of them have come join me in the Centennial Conference) and still they post a very respectable finish at the meet up in New Jersey. I haven't seen enough against PA competition to move them up or down much from this spot, but just on reputation alone I expect them to run pretty solid by Districts and States. Russell is a kid to watch this year and the next couple if he keeps healthy and keeps working hard under the Kevin Kelly plan. And the guy they stole from Hatboro Horsham (I'm really sorry I just can't remember the kids name) is a nice young piece too.
5. North Penn- MacCauley, Trimble, Davis
So North Penn. Finished where at Carlisle last year? Finished where at Districts? Sure their 4-5 hasn't shown me much but I know their top three were all in the top 30 or so at Districts and the school is frickin huge, they can burn a few guys at top mileage to get a solid set of 4-5 runners. They peak at the right time and I can drop a huge load of stats on you about how awesome they have been at Districts the past few years even when people expect them to do squat (see 2010 District One Championships). And no one expected them to do squat this year. They were my pick to win Districts and I am really having a hard time letting go of that (they are still my pick to win by the way, I don't back out of things I say very easily, I'm just stubborn like that) Jacky Mac was the talk of the town in the spring. Don't forget about the kid people, he's still going to be good. Dan Davis has been solid as well, another potential state medalist wearing the baby blue.
6. Quaker Valley- Westwood, Fox
They are a AA powerhouse and have produced quality guys for quite some time now on the AA side. They are pretty big favorites to take the cake this year and get the win, winning prestates without Westwood (who better be healthy otherwise everything I am saying goes out the window). They have the favorite for the AA championship in my opinion leading them out front so that right there gives you a one or a two in team scoring (see why that previous sentene is relevant yet?) and then with something like that out front your only scoring 4 guys and that's huge. We saw it in Muhlenberg last year and this year. Having a front runner works wonders. How do they stack up against AAA teams? Eh, Pre States and RWB indicated here at 6 so that's what I'm going with.
7. LaSalle- Coyle, Stone
I'm running out of energy to type long stuff so I'm going to keep this brief. Young team that keeps getting better and better. Top guy who keeps learning to run XC. Comes from the PCL where pack running and hill running are perfected. States is hilly and LaSalle has pulled off plenty of sick states performances before (see 2nd place finish in 2008). They will be good at the right time. Depends on how deep they are to see just how good is good.
8. Great Valley- Willig, Willig (not a type-o), Wolffe
Gotta think they are better than the performance at Paul Short. Still think Prep may be peaking a tad early (heck they have done it before) and Great Valley is just appearently not as good as LaSalle (which proves me wrong because I thought they were better). I still have hope about this team (see me being stubborn above), but it is dwindling fast. Paul Short was not a good showing at all. I still believe in the Willig's moving up way higher than their last performance, but they best step their game up in the coming weeks or things will not get any prettier.
9. CR North- Emery, Wilson
When has CR North not made states? Yeah exactly. They will be back, they will be solid, and if you go to states out of District One (not trying to sound like a prick) you are pretty darn good team. Plus I think CR North is better than people give them credit for. They are a little young, but they tend to put it together at the right time like so many of the other teams on this list so I expect big things.
10. Holy Ghost Prep- Israel, Horgan, Kardish
Speaking of teams who put it together at the right time year in and year out, Holy Ghost Prep has not been one of those teams. But hey, things look like they may be different. They are still running solid at this point and the season and they are always at least in the mix come Districts but they usually fall just a bit short after much loftier early season expectations. Proceed with caution if playing them in fantasy leagues because the next couple weeks could take a turn downhill.
yeah I said top ten but this is kind of like a shout out you are doing a good job type deal for these last couple teams.
Same thing can be said about both teams. Some solid guys, no big names. District 3 has had a bunch of solid teams who haven't made huge noise, and these are the best two teams in my eyes in the District this year.
11. Governor Mifflin
12. Chambersburg
As the Joker says: And here ... we ... go
1. O'Hara- Savage, Bilotta, Pastore, Ostrowski
So look I'm the first one to say throw times out the window when looking at whose the best individual/team and all that good stuff but you can't overlook the fact that O'Hara traveled out of state had a boatload of guys under 16 minutes, and beat some very good teams. That proved they were a legit title contender. You can make excuses for Lebo at Pre States and all that good stuff, but you can argue O'Hara didn't have their best day either with the whole Savage sickness or whatever. Here's the bottom line, O'Hara has got 5 real solid guys who know how to work together and pack up, just like last year. Only this year I think their pack will be up higher and the other teams around them won't be as deep. PCL teams have a knack for peaking at the right time.
Only thing I can find that concerns me is that if a guy gets hurt in their top 5 they don't have much of a 6/7 that I have seen to come save the day. We will see, but definitely the #1 team.
2. Mt. Lebanon- Moran, Tellin, Tramalgini
Alright so here's the thing Mt Lebo looked very good early on, Moran was an early state title contender and they had a tight spread and all that good stuff. Since the early season, however, they have really thrown up some flags. Tellin had an off race last weekend, whatever its one bad race on a sloppy course, he'll get over it. Moran has been having a few off races and hasn't been able to pull out any big wins, but he's a very talented guy who is working hard, he should be able to piece things together at the end of the season. But those things still worry me. It's not like O'Hara who has got big wins and all their guys seem healthy and continue to move up my board rather than move down. I'm hoping that they didn't train too hard in the summer or something like that. I doubt that's the case but it is a possibility. Gunz had a stretch kind of like Moran where Gil was beating up on him, but he still came back and got 2nd at states. We will see if Lebo has the same firepower at states that Rad did.
3. North Allegheny- Steiner, Appman, Some Freshman
So you don't want to rely too much on the young guys, but NA has done it before with Gil as a third man when they got third at states a couple years back. I don't recoginize a lot of names on this team, but admittedly, they usually churn out studs I've never heard of year in and year out. Up front Steiner doesn't look amazing but think about Gil and RWB and Carlisle, he got beat by plenty of guys and he still one states. Despite completely f-ing up his toe. So I'm not too concerned. This team always, always, always has what it takes by Districts and States. Haven't seen much of NA lately so its hard to judge but based on instinct I think Lebo should be scared.
4. Henderson- Russell, the kid who used to go to HHorsham, Barchet?, Grab
Speaking of young guys, cue West Chester Henderson. So many young guys in the top 3 and top 7. Always under the radar at this time in the season, but always doing high mileage and biding their time waiting to strike. They are always a force at Districts and States and are very well coached. But again the big names from last year (Stecklair, Andrews, Collins, Barchet) are absent for one reason or another (most of them have come join me in the Centennial Conference) and still they post a very respectable finish at the meet up in New Jersey. I haven't seen enough against PA competition to move them up or down much from this spot, but just on reputation alone I expect them to run pretty solid by Districts and States. Russell is a kid to watch this year and the next couple if he keeps healthy and keeps working hard under the Kevin Kelly plan. And the guy they stole from Hatboro Horsham (I'm really sorry I just can't remember the kids name) is a nice young piece too.
5. North Penn- MacCauley, Trimble, Davis
So North Penn. Finished where at Carlisle last year? Finished where at Districts? Sure their 4-5 hasn't shown me much but I know their top three were all in the top 30 or so at Districts and the school is frickin huge, they can burn a few guys at top mileage to get a solid set of 4-5 runners. They peak at the right time and I can drop a huge load of stats on you about how awesome they have been at Districts the past few years even when people expect them to do squat (see 2010 District One Championships). And no one expected them to do squat this year. They were my pick to win Districts and I am really having a hard time letting go of that (they are still my pick to win by the way, I don't back out of things I say very easily, I'm just stubborn like that) Jacky Mac was the talk of the town in the spring. Don't forget about the kid people, he's still going to be good. Dan Davis has been solid as well, another potential state medalist wearing the baby blue.
6. Quaker Valley- Westwood, Fox
They are a AA powerhouse and have produced quality guys for quite some time now on the AA side. They are pretty big favorites to take the cake this year and get the win, winning prestates without Westwood (who better be healthy otherwise everything I am saying goes out the window). They have the favorite for the AA championship in my opinion leading them out front so that right there gives you a one or a two in team scoring (see why that previous sentene is relevant yet?) and then with something like that out front your only scoring 4 guys and that's huge. We saw it in Muhlenberg last year and this year. Having a front runner works wonders. How do they stack up against AAA teams? Eh, Pre States and RWB indicated here at 6 so that's what I'm going with.
7. LaSalle- Coyle, Stone
I'm running out of energy to type long stuff so I'm going to keep this brief. Young team that keeps getting better and better. Top guy who keeps learning to run XC. Comes from the PCL where pack running and hill running are perfected. States is hilly and LaSalle has pulled off plenty of sick states performances before (see 2nd place finish in 2008). They will be good at the right time. Depends on how deep they are to see just how good is good.
8. Great Valley- Willig, Willig (not a type-o), Wolffe
Gotta think they are better than the performance at Paul Short. Still think Prep may be peaking a tad early (heck they have done it before) and Great Valley is just appearently not as good as LaSalle (which proves me wrong because I thought they were better). I still have hope about this team (see me being stubborn above), but it is dwindling fast. Paul Short was not a good showing at all. I still believe in the Willig's moving up way higher than their last performance, but they best step their game up in the coming weeks or things will not get any prettier.
9. CR North- Emery, Wilson
When has CR North not made states? Yeah exactly. They will be back, they will be solid, and if you go to states out of District One (not trying to sound like a prick) you are pretty darn good team. Plus I think CR North is better than people give them credit for. They are a little young, but they tend to put it together at the right time like so many of the other teams on this list so I expect big things.
10. Holy Ghost Prep- Israel, Horgan, Kardish
Speaking of teams who put it together at the right time year in and year out, Holy Ghost Prep has not been one of those teams. But hey, things look like they may be different. They are still running solid at this point and the season and they are always at least in the mix come Districts but they usually fall just a bit short after much loftier early season expectations. Proceed with caution if playing them in fantasy leagues because the next couple weeks could take a turn downhill.
yeah I said top ten but this is kind of like a shout out you are doing a good job type deal for these last couple teams.
Same thing can be said about both teams. Some solid guys, no big names. District 3 has had a bunch of solid teams who haven't made huge noise, and these are the best two teams in my eyes in the District this year.
11. Governor Mifflin
12. Chambersburg
No New Rankings This Week
Sorry people but I will not be updating the rankings this weekend. A lot of teams didn't race because of the holiday and I also feel nothing extremely eventful happened to make me want to change the ranks much at all. Obviously Wilson and Coyle had nice races this weekend, Jaskowak continues to run well, and some other guys ran solid times but none of those performances really surprised me, it was all things I expected.
Strynkowski probably would have been the big mover, beating Luke Jones at Gettysburg and running a solid sub 16 minute 5k at an established course. I am hoping this is a good sign that Connor is moving up to where I thought he'd be in my preseason analysis.
Any other questions or comments feel free to hit me up and people who voted other please let me know who you voted for because that could help effect the rankings next weekend.
Strynkowski probably would have been the big mover, beating Luke Jones at Gettysburg and running a solid sub 16 minute 5k at an established course. I am hoping this is a good sign that Connor is moving up to where I thought he'd be in my preseason analysis.
Any other questions or comments feel free to hit me up and people who voted other please let me know who you voted for because that could help effect the rankings next weekend.
A Blast From the Past- Friday Stat
So here is my little Friday Stat for everybody, just a blast from the past to see where the PA alumns finished at Paul Short this past Friday. Hope you enjoy seeing some familiar names. Sorry in advance if I missed you, I only went down to 27 flat.
6 6 Dan Lowry, Sr 4:50 24:18 Brown University
17 17 Keith Capecci, Sr 4:51 24:42 Villanova University
33 33 Mark Dennin, Jr 5:02 24:59 Georgetown University
39 39 Alfredo Santana, Jr 4:49 25:02 La Salle University
40 40 Ben Furcht, So 4:51 25:04 Georgetown University
53 52 Pat DeSabatto, Jr 4:53 25:13 Columbia University
61 60 Eric Arnold, Sr 4:56 25:16 Haverford College
65 64 John Pickhaver, Jr 4:49 25:19 Villanova University
70 69 Rad Gunzenhauser, Fr 4:51 25:21 College of William an
75 74 Joe Beveridge, Jr 4:49 25:23 La Salle University
90 87 Chris Bodary, Sr 4:52 25:28 University of Tenness
101 97 Matt Gillette, Jr 4:58 25:32 Shippensburg Universi
113 106 Sean Keefe, So 4:57 25:36 Syracuse
115 108 Jim Spisak, Jr 4:50 25:36 Duquesne University
119 112 John Pope, So 4:51 25:37 American University
126 118 Logan Mohn, Fr 4:59 25:41 Saint Josephs Univers
137 127 Vince Perozze, So 4:55 25:43 La Salle University
149 138 Sam Bernitt, So 5:04 25:47 Lehigh University
152 141 Scott Van Kooten, 5 4:48 25:48 Duquesne University
153 142 Nick Crits, Sr 4:57 25:48 La Salle University
156 145 Tim Getz, Sr 4:50 25:49 Lock Haven University
158 147 Matt McCullough, Jr 5:02 25:50 Cornell University
170 158 Tyler Mueller, So 5:03 25:54 Lehigh University
171 159 Tyler Jones, Jr 5:02 25:54 College of William an
195 178 Cam Stauffer, Jr 5:05 26:05 Duquesne University
197 180 Dj Krystek, Jr 5:03 26:06 Bucknell University
199 182 Mike Palmisano, Jr 5:01 26:06 princeton
208 189 Evan Gomez, Fr 5:06 26:09 Duquesne University
214 192 Patrick Donnelly, Jr 26:14 Saint Josephs Univers
223 199 Adam Shrawder, Jr 5:06 26:18 Duquesne University
234 208 Reece Ayers, Fr 5:06 26:21 High Point University
241 Alex Brazinski, Jr 5:02 26:27 La Salle University
242 Ivo Milic-Strkalj 5:03 26:27 Haverford College
243 213 Mike Nemeth, Jr 5:03 26:27 Lock Haven University
244 214 Dan Dillon, Sr 5:05 26:28 Bucknell University
252 Chuck Lockwood, So 5:07 26:32 Duquesne University
253 219 Mike Vido, Sr 26:32 University of Pennsyl
256 222 Matt Groff, Fr 5:00 26:34 University of Richmon
261 226 Matthew Kacyon, Fr 4:56 26:35 Temple University
280 242 Glen Williams, Fr 5:06 26:46 Bucknell University
282 244 Scott Armstrong, Fr 5:10 26:47 Shippensburg Universi
285 247 George Dickson, Jr 5:08 26:49 University of Pennsyl
287 James Finucane, Sr 5:01 26:51 University of Pennsyl
2 2 Jason Weller, Sr 5:01 25:38 Iona College
11 11 Ian Quinlan, Sr 5:06 26:01 Susquehanna Universit
20 20 Victor Costello, So 5:17 26:10 Indiana University of
40 40 Jimmy Tarsnane, So 5:02 26:26 Iona College
72 72 Stephen Welsh, So 5:16 26:49 Elizabethtown College
90 90 Zach Hoagland, Sr 5:14 26:56 Messiah College
92 92 Brett Schwartz, Sr 5:04 26:56 Johns Hopkins Univers
4 4 Brett Kubiak, So 5:10 26:16 Gwynedd-Mercy College
7 7 Joe Kubiak, So 5:09 26:27 Gwynedd-Mercy College
8 8 Eli Weeks, Jr 5:08 26:34 Kutztown University
11 11 Dominic Camasso, Jr 5:04 26:40 Seton Hill University
17 17 Jon Bogert, Jr 5:04 26:51 Seton Hill University
19 19 Sam Stortz, Jr 5:14 26:56 Ursinus College
6 1 Chris Osullivan, So 5:00 25:42 Villanova University
16 Joe Kush 5:04 25:55
17 Juris Silenieks 5:03 25:55
20 11 Daniel Day, Jr 4:59 25:57 La Salle University
35 22 Austin Gregor, Fr 5:00 26:19 Georgetown University
42 28 Matt Finn, Jr 5:04 26:27 La Salle University
46 31 Paul Reilly, Jr 5:04 26:38 La Salle University
53 36 James Murphy, So 5:01 26:44 La Salle University
57 Thomas Trainer 5:04 26:49
6 6 Dan Lowry, Sr 4:50 24:18 Brown University
17 17 Keith Capecci, Sr 4:51 24:42 Villanova University
33 33 Mark Dennin, Jr 5:02 24:59 Georgetown University
39 39 Alfredo Santana, Jr 4:49 25:02 La Salle University
40 40 Ben Furcht, So 4:51 25:04 Georgetown University
53 52 Pat DeSabatto, Jr 4:53 25:13 Columbia University
61 60 Eric Arnold, Sr 4:56 25:16 Haverford College
65 64 John Pickhaver, Jr 4:49 25:19 Villanova University
70 69 Rad Gunzenhauser, Fr 4:51 25:21 College of William an
75 74 Joe Beveridge, Jr 4:49 25:23 La Salle University
90 87 Chris Bodary, Sr 4:52 25:28 University of Tenness
101 97 Matt Gillette, Jr 4:58 25:32 Shippensburg Universi
113 106 Sean Keefe, So 4:57 25:36 Syracuse
115 108 Jim Spisak, Jr 4:50 25:36 Duquesne University
119 112 John Pope, So 4:51 25:37 American University
126 118 Logan Mohn, Fr 4:59 25:41 Saint Josephs Univers
137 127 Vince Perozze, So 4:55 25:43 La Salle University
149 138 Sam Bernitt, So 5:04 25:47 Lehigh University
152 141 Scott Van Kooten, 5 4:48 25:48 Duquesne University
153 142 Nick Crits, Sr 4:57 25:48 La Salle University
156 145 Tim Getz, Sr 4:50 25:49 Lock Haven University
158 147 Matt McCullough, Jr 5:02 25:50 Cornell University
170 158 Tyler Mueller, So 5:03 25:54 Lehigh University
171 159 Tyler Jones, Jr 5:02 25:54 College of William an
195 178 Cam Stauffer, Jr 5:05 26:05 Duquesne University
197 180 Dj Krystek, Jr 5:03 26:06 Bucknell University
199 182 Mike Palmisano, Jr 5:01 26:06 princeton
208 189 Evan Gomez, Fr 5:06 26:09 Duquesne University
214 192 Patrick Donnelly, Jr 26:14 Saint Josephs Univers
223 199 Adam Shrawder, Jr 5:06 26:18 Duquesne University
234 208 Reece Ayers, Fr 5:06 26:21 High Point University
241 Alex Brazinski, Jr 5:02 26:27 La Salle University
242 Ivo Milic-Strkalj 5:03 26:27 Haverford College
243 213 Mike Nemeth, Jr 5:03 26:27 Lock Haven University
244 214 Dan Dillon, Sr 5:05 26:28 Bucknell University
252 Chuck Lockwood, So 5:07 26:32 Duquesne University
253 219 Mike Vido, Sr 26:32 University of Pennsyl
256 222 Matt Groff, Fr 5:00 26:34 University of Richmon
261 226 Matthew Kacyon, Fr 4:56 26:35 Temple University
280 242 Glen Williams, Fr 5:06 26:46 Bucknell University
282 244 Scott Armstrong, Fr 5:10 26:47 Shippensburg Universi
285 247 George Dickson, Jr 5:08 26:49 University of Pennsyl
287 James Finucane, Sr 5:01 26:51 University of Pennsyl
2 2 Jason Weller, Sr 5:01 25:38 Iona College
11 11 Ian Quinlan, Sr 5:06 26:01 Susquehanna Universit
20 20 Victor Costello, So 5:17 26:10 Indiana University of
40 40 Jimmy Tarsnane, So 5:02 26:26 Iona College
72 72 Stephen Welsh, So 5:16 26:49 Elizabethtown College
90 90 Zach Hoagland, Sr 5:14 26:56 Messiah College
92 92 Brett Schwartz, Sr 5:04 26:56 Johns Hopkins Univers
4 4 Brett Kubiak, So 5:10 26:16 Gwynedd-Mercy College
7 7 Joe Kubiak, So 5:09 26:27 Gwynedd-Mercy College
8 8 Eli Weeks, Jr 5:08 26:34 Kutztown University
11 11 Dominic Camasso, Jr 5:04 26:40 Seton Hill University
17 17 Jon Bogert, Jr 5:04 26:51 Seton Hill University
19 19 Sam Stortz, Jr 5:14 26:56 Ursinus College
6 1 Chris Osullivan, So 5:00 25:42 Villanova University
16 Joe Kush 5:04 25:55
17 Juris Silenieks 5:03 25:55
20 11 Daniel Day, Jr 4:59 25:57 La Salle University
35 22 Austin Gregor, Fr 5:00 26:19 Georgetown University
42 28 Matt Finn, Jr 5:04 26:27 La Salle University
46 31 Paul Reilly, Jr 5:04 26:38 La Salle University
53 36 James Murphy, So 5:01 26:44 La Salle University
57 Thomas Trainer 5:04 26:49
etrain's birthday!!
And yes I am this full of myself that I need two birthdays a year. Today is etrain11's birthday, 4 years ago the account was created and today it is still going fairly strong. I just wanted to thank everyone for making this a really special 4 years.
And since I am a giving guy, on etrain's birthday he doesn't want gifts, he wants to give gifts to people so as always I will be answering questions or just talking track with anyone who wants to. You can reach me at all the normal places. My phone is working now so you can text me if you want also.
And oh yeah when I said I don't want gifts, I'm not gonna lie I won't turn down a gift so that was kind of a lie.
If that makes sense to you, congrats.
-etrain11
And since I am a giving guy, on etrain's birthday he doesn't want gifts, he wants to give gifts to people so as always I will be answering questions or just talking track with anyone who wants to. You can reach me at all the normal places. My phone is working now so you can text me if you want also.
And oh yeah when I said I don't want gifts, I'm not gonna lie I won't turn down a gift so that was kind of a lie.
If that makes sense to you, congrats.
-etrain11
Mid Week Long Run
In running, they say one of the biggest keys to success is consistency. So, therefore, even though I don't have a meet I'm particularly excited about for this weekend, I'm going to find one and write about it in yet another addition of the Mid Week Long Run.
So here's the deal folks, this thing is wide open. Team wise I still think on the AAA side there are 5 teams that have at least a reasonable chance of winning the meet in a month. AA has proven time and time again that anything can happen, although I think Quaker Valley looks pretty darn good especially if Westwood comes back.
And on the individual side, don't even get me started. It is WIDE open. The poll that I put up for this week (which everyone is doing a great job voting on) indicates the leading candidate to win states right now is no one that I mentioned. Other has taken 25% of the vote! Hibbs and Magaha round it out but there is still at least one vote for every guy I listed on poll. This means that at the bare minimum there are 10 guys that train station thinks can win states. And that assumes everyone is voting for the same other. In theory, the poll could indicate that roughly 15 different guys are in the hunt for the win. Wow.
So what does any of this have to do with the meet I'm excited for this weekend?
Well quite frankly, it doesn't I just wanted to say how awesome and wide open I think things are right now because that is what really got me excited this weekend. Which is crazy because it is etrain's birthday today so you think that would grab more of my attention. He turns four years old.
So trying once again not to get side tracked, back to this weekend's big meet. And for this one I'm going out of state borders to the Manhattan Invite. Up front there will big names from all over, headed by new NJ Holmdel record holder Ed Cheserek. But for PA there should be plenty of big names as well.
For this next part I'd just like to point out this is all speculation. These teams may not come and some guys I don't know about may also show up and surprise.
So here we go. Henderson has been to this meet in the past and I think they will be back again. Yes, they don't have anyone currently on my top 50, but Tony Russell is a guy I definitely have my eye on and Henderson is built around young improving guys this year. They are well coached and haven't done anything to flashy, so I'm hoping they show up here and show us what they've got.
Another D1 powerhouse that is usually in the building at this meet is North Penn. Now North Penn has underwhelmed me this year so far. They were my pick early in the season for District Champions and 2nd at the State Championships, but they have fallen out of my favor as of late. Their 4 and 5 guys can take a big step forward with a quality performance at this meet this year.
MacCauley took a nice step down in Delaware this past weekend and has a chance now to prove that he has matured into a top 5 contender like so many thought he'd be last spring.
In year's past Hatboro Horsham has made the trip to New York and if they travel here again, Sam Hibbs will have plenty of motivation to try and drop a fast time. He was beat by Magaha last week and has had to listen to a bunch of guys drop him off the top of the rankings. Could be a big statement race for Hibbs.
And oh yeah his teammate Conner Quinn ain't half bad either.
Lastly, a team with high hopes for this season and beyond is LaSalle who is expected to be back at Manhattan once again to showcase their talent. Their front man Tom Coyle had one of his best races of the season at the Manhattan invite a year ago. He was the team's second man behind eventual state medalist Tom Trainer. This year Coyle is the best Tom in a yellow jersey and has high hopes to beat Trainer's disappointing finish from a year ago.
Just kind of a random note worth mentioning: Pitt CC Champ Ean Disilvio was at the meet last year and may be a sleeper to watch this year if he and his squad return.
For the sake of reference I'll throw down some of the top times from year's past at the Manhattan invite (remember people it's a 4k and it's no pancake)
2010
Tom Trainer 13:14.93 (17th at XC States AAA)
2009
Brad Miles 12:27.51 (1st at XC States AAA, 1st at Regionals)
Sam Bernitt 12:33.33 (2nd at D1 AAA, 20th at States AAA)
Tom Kehl 12:51.20
Tom Waterman 12:55.70
Will Kellar 12:58.31
Achraf Khattabi 13:00.46
(Joe Rosa 12:03.8)
2008
Gus McKenzie 12:52
Michael Pierce 12:58
Will Kellar 12:52 (2nd at XC States AAA)
Ivo Milic 12:55
Patrick DeSabato 12:56
Brad Miles 12:47
(Soloman Halie 12:08)
2007
Dan Lowry 12:36 (12th at Regionals)
Max Kaulbach 12:27
Chris Aldrich 12:38 (2nd at XC States, 6th at Regionals)
Jake McKenzie 12:53
Zach Montijo 12:44 (6th at XC States)
Brad Miles 12:50 (10th at XC States as a soph)
Zach Hoagland 12:53 (24th at XC States)
2006
Dan Hibbs 12:52
Max Kaulbach 12:44
Paul Sringer 12:28 (14:47 at Lehigh, 2nd at XC States, 9 at Regionals)
-train
(Craig Forys (12:10)
So here's the deal folks, this thing is wide open. Team wise I still think on the AAA side there are 5 teams that have at least a reasonable chance of winning the meet in a month. AA has proven time and time again that anything can happen, although I think Quaker Valley looks pretty darn good especially if Westwood comes back.
And on the individual side, don't even get me started. It is WIDE open. The poll that I put up for this week (which everyone is doing a great job voting on) indicates the leading candidate to win states right now is no one that I mentioned. Other has taken 25% of the vote! Hibbs and Magaha round it out but there is still at least one vote for every guy I listed on poll. This means that at the bare minimum there are 10 guys that train station thinks can win states. And that assumes everyone is voting for the same other. In theory, the poll could indicate that roughly 15 different guys are in the hunt for the win. Wow.
So what does any of this have to do with the meet I'm excited for this weekend?
Well quite frankly, it doesn't I just wanted to say how awesome and wide open I think things are right now because that is what really got me excited this weekend. Which is crazy because it is etrain's birthday today so you think that would grab more of my attention. He turns four years old.
So trying once again not to get side tracked, back to this weekend's big meet. And for this one I'm going out of state borders to the Manhattan Invite. Up front there will big names from all over, headed by new NJ Holmdel record holder Ed Cheserek. But for PA there should be plenty of big names as well.
For this next part I'd just like to point out this is all speculation. These teams may not come and some guys I don't know about may also show up and surprise.
So here we go. Henderson has been to this meet in the past and I think they will be back again. Yes, they don't have anyone currently on my top 50, but Tony Russell is a guy I definitely have my eye on and Henderson is built around young improving guys this year. They are well coached and haven't done anything to flashy, so I'm hoping they show up here and show us what they've got.
Another D1 powerhouse that is usually in the building at this meet is North Penn. Now North Penn has underwhelmed me this year so far. They were my pick early in the season for District Champions and 2nd at the State Championships, but they have fallen out of my favor as of late. Their 4 and 5 guys can take a big step forward with a quality performance at this meet this year.
MacCauley took a nice step down in Delaware this past weekend and has a chance now to prove that he has matured into a top 5 contender like so many thought he'd be last spring.
In year's past Hatboro Horsham has made the trip to New York and if they travel here again, Sam Hibbs will have plenty of motivation to try and drop a fast time. He was beat by Magaha last week and has had to listen to a bunch of guys drop him off the top of the rankings. Could be a big statement race for Hibbs.
And oh yeah his teammate Conner Quinn ain't half bad either.
Lastly, a team with high hopes for this season and beyond is LaSalle who is expected to be back at Manhattan once again to showcase their talent. Their front man Tom Coyle had one of his best races of the season at the Manhattan invite a year ago. He was the team's second man behind eventual state medalist Tom Trainer. This year Coyle is the best Tom in a yellow jersey and has high hopes to beat Trainer's disappointing finish from a year ago.
Just kind of a random note worth mentioning: Pitt CC Champ Ean Disilvio was at the meet last year and may be a sleeper to watch this year if he and his squad return.
For the sake of reference I'll throw down some of the top times from year's past at the Manhattan invite (remember people it's a 4k and it's no pancake)
2010
Tom Trainer 13:14.93 (17th at XC States AAA)
2009
Brad Miles 12:27.51 (1st at XC States AAA, 1st at Regionals)
Sam Bernitt 12:33.33 (2nd at D1 AAA, 20th at States AAA)
Tom Kehl 12:51.20
Tom Waterman 12:55.70
Will Kellar 12:58.31
Achraf Khattabi 13:00.46
(Joe Rosa 12:03.8)
2008
Gus McKenzie 12:52
Michael Pierce 12:58
Will Kellar 12:52 (2nd at XC States AAA)
Ivo Milic 12:55
Patrick DeSabato 12:56
Brad Miles 12:47
(Soloman Halie 12:08)
2007
Dan Lowry 12:36 (12th at Regionals)
Max Kaulbach 12:27
Chris Aldrich 12:38 (2nd at XC States, 6th at Regionals)
Jake McKenzie 12:53
Zach Montijo 12:44 (6th at XC States)
Brad Miles 12:50 (10th at XC States as a soph)
Zach Hoagland 12:53 (24th at XC States)
2006
Dan Hibbs 12:52
Max Kaulbach 12:44
Paul Sringer 12:28 (14:47 at Lehigh, 2nd at XC States, 9 at Regionals)
-train
(Craig Forys (12:10)
Thoughts
So my phone is broken and I picked today of all days to forget my key and be locked out of my room. Fantastic day, I know and I'm going to try my best not to brag too much. But here's the deal, when life gives you lemons, you make a blog post about some of the thoughts going through your mind.
First of all, gotta say there are a lot of questions state wide about the WPIAL guys like Moran, Kutcha, Westwood etc. Now obviously Moran and Kutcha have struggled a bit of late, I don't know if this is a product of some tough race conditions, over confidence, over training or just a product of other guys getting better. I wish I had an answer for everyone. I don't think Westwood is injured just because he didn't race at PreStates but no guarentees. He is one of the few guys who has been in my top 10-15 all season who hasn't produced a race that makes me scared and dropped him down the list. That's why he is still so high up. Very solid race at RWB, great, improving team, excellent track season, top Senior returner from AA states last year. Thsoe kind of stats help the resume, then you add on the fact that he hasn't done anything to blow it so far and he's in the top 10.
Here's the truth of the matter, more top guys have lost to seemingly no name guys than ever this season. What's this mean? Well at first I thought it meant I didn't know the true top guys. But strictly by the numbers we look at the top returners from states and the top track times and those things honestly have been pretty much tossed out the window. Especially on the west coast. We are just going to have to wait it out and see who peaks when. Still plenty of season left.
Big talk about Dan Savage recently, everybody is on his bandwagon. Didn't know he was sick at pre states, thats my mistake. Good race this weekend, but I'm more concerned with how close he was to other names and which guys he beat rather than the time. To me the time means nothing. Magaha's 16:20 is infinitely more impressive because he beat Sam Hibbs. End of story. So to the guy on penntrack who tried to throw times at us, I'm sorry but I don't want to hear about that arguement.
Savage is the #1 guy on the state's best team right now so of course he is going to get talk. Give me one more race against some PA names I recognize and I can make a decision on how I feel. Until then I'm sorry I just haven't seen enough to be swayed either way.
But here's the thing I'm wondering most of all. I've got 6 votes for other on the side of the poll here at the time I'm writing this. Who are the guy's that everyone else is picking? Kinda curious about that so comment it or facebook message it or something.
My phone, as of now, is broken so I sincerely apologize to anyone who I have not texted back. That is all.
-train
First of all, gotta say there are a lot of questions state wide about the WPIAL guys like Moran, Kutcha, Westwood etc. Now obviously Moran and Kutcha have struggled a bit of late, I don't know if this is a product of some tough race conditions, over confidence, over training or just a product of other guys getting better. I wish I had an answer for everyone. I don't think Westwood is injured just because he didn't race at PreStates but no guarentees. He is one of the few guys who has been in my top 10-15 all season who hasn't produced a race that makes me scared and dropped him down the list. That's why he is still so high up. Very solid race at RWB, great, improving team, excellent track season, top Senior returner from AA states last year. Thsoe kind of stats help the resume, then you add on the fact that he hasn't done anything to blow it so far and he's in the top 10.
Here's the truth of the matter, more top guys have lost to seemingly no name guys than ever this season. What's this mean? Well at first I thought it meant I didn't know the true top guys. But strictly by the numbers we look at the top returners from states and the top track times and those things honestly have been pretty much tossed out the window. Especially on the west coast. We are just going to have to wait it out and see who peaks when. Still plenty of season left.
Big talk about Dan Savage recently, everybody is on his bandwagon. Didn't know he was sick at pre states, thats my mistake. Good race this weekend, but I'm more concerned with how close he was to other names and which guys he beat rather than the time. To me the time means nothing. Magaha's 16:20 is infinitely more impressive because he beat Sam Hibbs. End of story. So to the guy on penntrack who tried to throw times at us, I'm sorry but I don't want to hear about that arguement.
Savage is the #1 guy on the state's best team right now so of course he is going to get talk. Give me one more race against some PA names I recognize and I can make a decision on how I feel. Until then I'm sorry I just haven't seen enough to be swayed either way.
But here's the thing I'm wondering most of all. I've got 6 votes for other on the side of the poll here at the time I'm writing this. Who are the guy's that everyone else is picking? Kinda curious about that so comment it or facebook message it or something.
My phone, as of now, is broken so I sincerely apologize to anyone who I have not texted back. That is all.
-train
Contacting Me
So I decided I'm going to go all out on this. Just for official reference, my name is Jarrett Felix so if you want to facebook friend me and hit me up on there with a message or whatever, that is fine by me. I check all the time. I have already gotten a bunch of messages and if the question is easy enough, I can respond with an answer much quicker through that method. Also it is nice to use if you don't like to post on the blog itself with private information or questions that are more specific or something like that. Also if you really want to get the updates I have a fan page where I will take suggestions on stuff, let you know when knew posts are up, etc. It's etrain11 on facebook so feel free to check that out.
I don't check my penntrack inbox that much anymore. I'm only to check results and forum posts on there if they seem interesting to me, but really most of the time I just check the blog. If you have major questions that you want me to make a post about, its probably best to post that up on the blog. I will respond to penntrack messages if that is how you prefer to go.
Lastly, I decided I'll throw my number down on here for things that can be answered short and quickly or if people want to update me on things right after races or something like that, I always have my phone on me. My number is 215-450-1099. You can remain anonymous if you really prefer that, but if I'm going to be getting texts from you I kinda would like to know who you are.
Lastly if you ever just want to talk to running feel free to message me on facebook or chat me or something like that. I'm a big fan and I love hearing from other big fans. If anyone else wants to start up their own rankings feel free, I feel like that will only make the process better and will help me learn about some guys I may not normally know.
Thanks,
trian
I don't check my penntrack inbox that much anymore. I'm only to check results and forum posts on there if they seem interesting to me, but really most of the time I just check the blog. If you have major questions that you want me to make a post about, its probably best to post that up on the blog. I will respond to penntrack messages if that is how you prefer to go.
Lastly, I decided I'll throw my number down on here for things that can be answered short and quickly or if people want to update me on things right after races or something like that, I always have my phone on me. My number is 215-450-1099. You can remain anonymous if you really prefer that, but if I'm going to be getting texts from you I kinda would like to know who you are.
Lastly if you ever just want to talk to running feel free to message me on facebook or chat me or something like that. I'm a big fan and I love hearing from other big fans. If anyone else wants to start up their own rankings feel free, I feel like that will only make the process better and will help me learn about some guys I may not normally know.
Thanks,
trian
Rankings Analysis
Same rules apply as last time, feel free to ask me why I got the guys where I do on the rankings. Here is what I have to say off the bat:
First off not afraid to say I was definitely very wrong about a few things. Surprised to see Kutcha go down like he did at Pitt CC. Didn't think the guy Hibbs would lose to would be Magaha. Scary thing watching Magaha put up XC stats like this.
A lot of guys I thought were top guys haven't really shown up so I'd say AA and AAA races are going to competitive and fairly wide open.
Dustin Wilson the only top 10 guy in the preseason who consistently gets in done. Beyond Dustin, I have no confidence in my rankings for everybody else. Things should be fun to watch.
So like I said: facebook message me, text me, call me, penntrack message me, comment on here with any questions you have in reasoning for the rankings.
Thanks,
train
First off not afraid to say I was definitely very wrong about a few things. Surprised to see Kutcha go down like he did at Pitt CC. Didn't think the guy Hibbs would lose to would be Magaha. Scary thing watching Magaha put up XC stats like this.
A lot of guys I thought were top guys haven't really shown up so I'd say AA and AAA races are going to competitive and fairly wide open.
Dustin Wilson the only top 10 guy in the preseason who consistently gets in done. Beyond Dustin, I have no confidence in my rankings for everybody else. Things should be fun to watch.
So like I said: facebook message me, text me, call me, penntrack message me, comment on here with any questions you have in reasoning for the rankings.
Thanks,
train
Top 50 Rankings 10/2
1. Dustin Wilson
2. Dan Jaskowak
3. Sam Hibbs
4. Max Norris
5. Drew Magaha
6. Quinn Devlin
7. Brendan Shearn
8. Conner Quinn
9. LJ Westwood
10. Korey Replogle
11. Aaron Wilkinson
12. Logan Steiner
13. Alex Moran
14. Sean Burke
15. Barrett Kemp
16. Tom Coyle
17. Mike Runco
18. Curt Jewett
19. Andrew Kutcha
20. Sam Williams
21. Ean DiSilvio
22. Ryan Smathers
23. Dan Savage
24. Jack MaCauley
25. Ned Willig
26. Connor Harriman
27. Luke Jones
28. Brett Kelly
29. Dan Davis
30. Zach Israel
31. Brent Kennedy
32. Mac Emery
33. Sam Ritz
34. Francis Ferruzzi
35. Joesph O’Such
36. Dylan Mountain
37. Alex Kane
38. Connor Strynkowski
39. Mike Billotta
40. Nate Kreider
41. Alec Kunzweiler
42. Tim Appman
43. Chris Pastore
44. John Ausel
45. Matt Croft
46. Adam Catora
47. Evan Williams
48. Lawtin Tellin
49. Zach Moon
50. Nate Tallada
2. Dan Jaskowak
3. Sam Hibbs
4. Max Norris
5. Drew Magaha
6. Quinn Devlin
7. Brendan Shearn
8. Conner Quinn
9. LJ Westwood
10. Korey Replogle
11. Aaron Wilkinson
12. Logan Steiner
13. Alex Moran
14. Sean Burke
15. Barrett Kemp
16. Tom Coyle
17. Mike Runco
18. Curt Jewett
19. Andrew Kutcha
20. Sam Williams
21. Ean DiSilvio
22. Ryan Smathers
23. Dan Savage
24. Jack MaCauley
25. Ned Willig
26. Connor Harriman
27. Luke Jones
28. Brett Kelly
29. Dan Davis
30. Zach Israel
31. Brent Kennedy
32. Mac Emery
33. Sam Ritz
34. Francis Ferruzzi
35. Joesph O’Such
36. Dylan Mountain
37. Alex Kane
38. Connor Strynkowski
39. Mike Billotta
40. Nate Kreider
41. Alec Kunzweiler
42. Tim Appman
43. Chris Pastore
44. John Ausel
45. Matt Croft
46. Adam Catora
47. Evan Williams
48. Lawtin Tellin
49. Zach Moon
50. Nate Tallada
Look at Me Now
Yes I just titled a post after a Chris Brown song, but hey, this is like my 5th post that I've made recently so cut me a tiny bit of slack.
Its fun to see guys who have been good become great. But it is way more fun to see guys who sucked become great. Ever heard of Ben Furcht? Most of the state hadn't for two years while he ran low 19s and mid 17s before running 15:53 and then under 15:10 his senior year. Hong Cho was a 2 flat guy his sophomore year when suddenly the kid started lighting it up. 1:53 high as a
Junior and a crazy 1:50 open time his senior year that culminated in a state championship.
So, since its cross season, the logical next step is to wonder where the top guys now were just 2 or three years ago before they took a few quick steps and caught the top group.
Let's look at it like this.
A lot of top guys have always been good and you always heard their names. But let's take a look at the top 5 freshman at states each of the past 3 seasons in AAA just to get an idea.
2008
102 Ned Willig
144 Logan Steiner
165 Lawtin Tellin
171 Chris Muldoon
224 Alex Moran
A few interesting names in there. Tellin and Muldoon still made the rankings this year, but certainly they are not top 5 guys. The other three are household names.
2009
74 Jon Faye
100 Ean DiSilvio
107 Dan Jaskowak
142 Alex Coburn
143 Dan Savage
Another interesting set of names. Coburn and Faye have faded into relative obscurity and Jaskowak has only recently emerged as a stand out star. DiSilvio and Savage are both on the rankings.
2010
63 Reiny Barchet
86 Matt Willig
108 Jeff Groh
110 George Kelly
111 Caleb Wakeley
Interesting group, hard to say for sure where the chips will fall as it is still very early and the Sophomore's don't normally shine until the late fall when championsip season rolls around.
So like I said above, its cool to see who has always been good. Long story short
Wilson, Hibbs, Devlin, Willig, Moran, and Steiner have all been good for as long as I can remember. Shearn, Smathers, Quinn, Williams, Jewett, and Jones have all been snaging medals and mixing it up in races since this past fall.
This leaves us with a few interesting names to talk about:
Kutcha, Jaskowak, Westwood, Runco, Burke, and Davis
Yeah I suppose that's kind of a longer list than a few, but I got a little overexcited when I was looking down the list. Trust me I even cut this list down a tad. We will start with the WPIAL guys because, quite frankly the WPIAL was better last year than it has been in a while and those kids deserve some respect. Plus that covers the most guys on the list.
In 2008 Kutcha wasn't on Baldwin's top 7 guys, while Runco was the 4th man on a Pittsburgh CC squad that finished 28th. He ran just 19:03. Kutcha did, however, lead his JV squad at the TriStates JV race with an 18:11 clocking. He finished behind 9 North Allegheny JV guys.
The next year LJ Westwood found himself on a District Champion AA Quaker Valley squad running a modest 17:37 as a soph. Kutcha clocked a 17:10 as Baldwin's 5th, while Runco was no where to be found in the results.
As Juniors this trio really got off to a hot start, especially in track where Westwood and Kutcha dropped very quick times, Westwood in the 8 and Kutcha in the 3200. In XC Runco ran 16:42, Kutcha ran 16:25 and Westwood ran 16:34 and won the AA race at Districts.
As for the other names, Sean Burke he ran 17:10 at the District 2 Championships last year finishing 4th. The year before Burke ran 18:40 as a soph and finished 31st at the District Championship, way back from the tops of the field.
Jaskowak was running behind Kildoo for a while, fighting for one of the top spots in D10 but not really on the state scene. His highlight was his 50th place finish last fall.
Dan Davis was just another random North Penn piece of the puzzle his sophomore year, finishing right next to yours truly at Districts. Since then he's taken a lot of positive steps finishing in the top 30 at States last year after an up and down season to say the least.
If there's anyone else people want to know about specifically I'll be happy to do some more in depth research for you.
-train
Its fun to see guys who have been good become great. But it is way more fun to see guys who sucked become great. Ever heard of Ben Furcht? Most of the state hadn't for two years while he ran low 19s and mid 17s before running 15:53 and then under 15:10 his senior year. Hong Cho was a 2 flat guy his sophomore year when suddenly the kid started lighting it up. 1:53 high as a
Junior and a crazy 1:50 open time his senior year that culminated in a state championship.
So, since its cross season, the logical next step is to wonder where the top guys now were just 2 or three years ago before they took a few quick steps and caught the top group.
Let's look at it like this.
A lot of top guys have always been good and you always heard their names. But let's take a look at the top 5 freshman at states each of the past 3 seasons in AAA just to get an idea.
2008
102 Ned Willig
144 Logan Steiner
165 Lawtin Tellin
171 Chris Muldoon
224 Alex Moran
A few interesting names in there. Tellin and Muldoon still made the rankings this year, but certainly they are not top 5 guys. The other three are household names.
2009
74 Jon Faye
100 Ean DiSilvio
107 Dan Jaskowak
142 Alex Coburn
143 Dan Savage
Another interesting set of names. Coburn and Faye have faded into relative obscurity and Jaskowak has only recently emerged as a stand out star. DiSilvio and Savage are both on the rankings.
2010
63 Reiny Barchet
86 Matt Willig
108 Jeff Groh
110 George Kelly
111 Caleb Wakeley
Interesting group, hard to say for sure where the chips will fall as it is still very early and the Sophomore's don't normally shine until the late fall when championsip season rolls around.
So like I said above, its cool to see who has always been good. Long story short
Wilson, Hibbs, Devlin, Willig, Moran, and Steiner have all been good for as long as I can remember. Shearn, Smathers, Quinn, Williams, Jewett, and Jones have all been snaging medals and mixing it up in races since this past fall.
This leaves us with a few interesting names to talk about:
Kutcha, Jaskowak, Westwood, Runco, Burke, and Davis
Yeah I suppose that's kind of a longer list than a few, but I got a little overexcited when I was looking down the list. Trust me I even cut this list down a tad. We will start with the WPIAL guys because, quite frankly the WPIAL was better last year than it has been in a while and those kids deserve some respect. Plus that covers the most guys on the list.
In 2008 Kutcha wasn't on Baldwin's top 7 guys, while Runco was the 4th man on a Pittsburgh CC squad that finished 28th. He ran just 19:03. Kutcha did, however, lead his JV squad at the TriStates JV race with an 18:11 clocking. He finished behind 9 North Allegheny JV guys.
The next year LJ Westwood found himself on a District Champion AA Quaker Valley squad running a modest 17:37 as a soph. Kutcha clocked a 17:10 as Baldwin's 5th, while Runco was no where to be found in the results.
As Juniors this trio really got off to a hot start, especially in track where Westwood and Kutcha dropped very quick times, Westwood in the 8 and Kutcha in the 3200. In XC Runco ran 16:42, Kutcha ran 16:25 and Westwood ran 16:34 and won the AA race at Districts.
As for the other names, Sean Burke he ran 17:10 at the District 2 Championships last year finishing 4th. The year before Burke ran 18:40 as a soph and finished 31st at the District Championship, way back from the tops of the field.
Jaskowak was running behind Kildoo for a while, fighting for one of the top spots in D10 but not really on the state scene. His highlight was his 50th place finish last fall.
Dan Davis was just another random North Penn piece of the puzzle his sophomore year, finishing right next to yours truly at Districts. Since then he's taken a lot of positive steps finishing in the top 30 at States last year after an up and down season to say the least.
If there's anyone else people want to know about specifically I'll be happy to do some more in depth research for you.
-train
An Interview with etrain69
So I sent these questions to etrain69 and edited his answers for length and content. Hope everyone enjoys this peak into the eccentric mind of etrain69.
Etrain11: So Mr. 69, thanks for taking the time to answer some questions from the trainstation, I know you have a pretty busy schedule.
Etrain69: thanks train, you know I would do anything for you. And I mean that as sexually as possible.
Etrain11: Alright Mr. 69, first and foremost I’d like to ask you, who are you? And if you won’t tell us why are you keeping your identity a secret?
Etrain69: Look ET, you know I’m not gonna reveal my identity, then I would lose a lot of my fan appeal. People love a good mystery, why do you think Lobster was such a popular guy (or girl, the debate is still out on that one train). But here’s the biggest reason not to drop the shadow of anonymity: you lose your ability to say whatever you want. That was your problem train you got too soft. You started to realize you were famous and you stopped telling it like it is and started trying to kiss up to all the good runners who you were sort of friends with in reality. You can’t do that, train, that’s why you gotta keep your identity a secret. Like right now I could say Dan Jaskowak is an overrated punk and it wouldn’t matter because he has no idea who I am. But I don’t think that Dan don’t worry.
Etrain11: Out of poster’s right now who post on penntrack, where do you think you rank?
Etrain69: Let’s face it, train, I’m easily the best. You don’t post anymore, 11, so I got no competition. I’ve got an extensive wealth of knowledge from before I was even in high school that most of these guys don’t even have about the runners in the game right now.
Etrain11: What is your opinion of runthrowjump?
Etrain69: Well obviously Run DMc is pretty awesome. He posts on there like all the time and he wants to be the best in the game and certainly asks plenty of questions to try to achieve that goal. He just needs to ask a few less questions and give a few more assertive answers. I’m sure you were a little timid when you first entered the scene too, 11, so he will grow into his own, but if he’s going to be the best he needs to be a cocky SOB just like me. The only thing that accepts me is his name is too long to become one of the greatest ev. Runthrowjump? Its just more of a mouthful than your d*** (edited for content) etrain. Im surprised Run DMc hasn’t caught on, I think its awesome, but RTJ can do for now.
Etrain11: Who do you think is the favorite to win states in XC?
Etrain69: Well now ET you can phone home all you want but I like to keep my picks a little closer to the vest than that. I have to ask though etrain, Quinn Devlin seems pretty low on your rankings compared to mine and some other guys, are you mad because he gave runthrowjump a shout out in a penntrack article but not you? Have you ever gotten a shout out in a penntrack article?
Etrain11: Why make an account called etrain69 right after I retire?
Etrain69: Well I thought this would be pretty obvious train, but here’s what I got. I was a young buck then, just a freshman living in PA trying to find his way around the new cross country courses, but I saw the rankings and the blog and everything and I knew this guy was a guy who had his ish together. So imagine the horror in this little boy when his role model pulls the rug out from underneath me and leaves me cold and alone lying like a drunk kid on the bathroom floor. Well I couldn’t stand seeing penntrack led by a bunch of confused, lost puppies so I stepped in. I made an account and basically just said what you would say in the same spot with a little bit of flair and cocky attitude because that’s just the way I am. I’m no troll, I love track and I want to see penntrack not fall into an abyss of uncertainty.
Etrain11: Alright last question, even though I think I already know the answer, what does WWED stand for?
Etrain69: What Would Etrain Do. It’s like What Would Jesus Do, 11, except for I put in your name instead of Jesus. Its just supposed to be funny so if anyone is pissed about take a chill pill. Its my version of the running commandments I guess.
Big thanks to etrain69 for helping us out. Hope this was enlightening.
-train
Etrain11: So Mr. 69, thanks for taking the time to answer some questions from the trainstation, I know you have a pretty busy schedule.
Etrain69: thanks train, you know I would do anything for you. And I mean that as sexually as possible.
Etrain11: Alright Mr. 69, first and foremost I’d like to ask you, who are you? And if you won’t tell us why are you keeping your identity a secret?
Etrain69: Look ET, you know I’m not gonna reveal my identity, then I would lose a lot of my fan appeal. People love a good mystery, why do you think Lobster was such a popular guy (or girl, the debate is still out on that one train). But here’s the biggest reason not to drop the shadow of anonymity: you lose your ability to say whatever you want. That was your problem train you got too soft. You started to realize you were famous and you stopped telling it like it is and started trying to kiss up to all the good runners who you were sort of friends with in reality. You can’t do that, train, that’s why you gotta keep your identity a secret. Like right now I could say Dan Jaskowak is an overrated punk and it wouldn’t matter because he has no idea who I am. But I don’t think that Dan don’t worry.
Etrain11: Out of poster’s right now who post on penntrack, where do you think you rank?
Etrain69: Let’s face it, train, I’m easily the best. You don’t post anymore, 11, so I got no competition. I’ve got an extensive wealth of knowledge from before I was even in high school that most of these guys don’t even have about the runners in the game right now.
Etrain11: What is your opinion of runthrowjump?
Etrain69: Well obviously Run DMc is pretty awesome. He posts on there like all the time and he wants to be the best in the game and certainly asks plenty of questions to try to achieve that goal. He just needs to ask a few less questions and give a few more assertive answers. I’m sure you were a little timid when you first entered the scene too, 11, so he will grow into his own, but if he’s going to be the best he needs to be a cocky SOB just like me. The only thing that accepts me is his name is too long to become one of the greatest ev. Runthrowjump? Its just more of a mouthful than your d*** (edited for content) etrain. Im surprised Run DMc hasn’t caught on, I think its awesome, but RTJ can do for now.
Etrain11: Who do you think is the favorite to win states in XC?
Etrain69: Well now ET you can phone home all you want but I like to keep my picks a little closer to the vest than that. I have to ask though etrain, Quinn Devlin seems pretty low on your rankings compared to mine and some other guys, are you mad because he gave runthrowjump a shout out in a penntrack article but not you? Have you ever gotten a shout out in a penntrack article?
Etrain11: Why make an account called etrain69 right after I retire?
Etrain69: Well I thought this would be pretty obvious train, but here’s what I got. I was a young buck then, just a freshman living in PA trying to find his way around the new cross country courses, but I saw the rankings and the blog and everything and I knew this guy was a guy who had his ish together. So imagine the horror in this little boy when his role model pulls the rug out from underneath me and leaves me cold and alone lying like a drunk kid on the bathroom floor. Well I couldn’t stand seeing penntrack led by a bunch of confused, lost puppies so I stepped in. I made an account and basically just said what you would say in the same spot with a little bit of flair and cocky attitude because that’s just the way I am. I’m no troll, I love track and I want to see penntrack not fall into an abyss of uncertainty.
Etrain11: Alright last question, even though I think I already know the answer, what does WWED stand for?
Etrain69: What Would Etrain Do. It’s like What Would Jesus Do, 11, except for I put in your name instead of Jesus. Its just supposed to be funny so if anyone is pissed about take a chill pill. Its my version of the running commandments I guess.
Big thanks to etrain69 for helping us out. Hope this was enlightening.
-train
Conner Quinn
First of all I'd just like to say I didn't realize this guy's name was spelled with an e for a very long time so I am sorry to him for spelling his name wrong all these years.
So here we go why is Conner Quinn ranked the spot he is. Well quite frankly, I think you can make an arguement Quinn is too high on my list or too low on my list, so therefore I put him in the middle of those two arguements.
Argument for a higher rank:
Quinn trains with Sam Hibbs. Quinn has raced within 5-10 seconds of Hibbs every race this season. Hibbs is the favorite for the state championship. Therefore, Quinn is a top 5 guy. Very logical arguement. He was 20th at States a year ago and ran the fastest out of all the sophomore's at states (not 100% positive on that stat but I'm pretty sure that's right). He is starting out much faster than he did last season time wise and running times fairly similar to Hibbs at this point last year and Hibbs took 7th in what I consider a deeper field than this years at the AAA level.
Pretty solid stats, pretty solid argument.
Argument for a lower rank:
Quinn trains and runs close to Sam Hibbs but he still has lost to a bunch of other runners. At Prestates he lost Connor Harriman, at Viking he lost to Max Norris, at Briarwood he ran a slower time than Dan Savage and Mike Billotta yet all those guys are fairly far behind him on the list. Now he beat Savage and Bilotta at Pre States and they were in the faster race at Briarwood with guys to chase but Quinn didn't win his race at Briarwood either. Meanwhile Brendan Shearn at 7 just one spot ahead of Quinn is undefeated this season fairly convincingly winning his two races with relative ease. Carlisle was the biggest meet of the year last year and although it clearly wasn't this year, he still won. And PTXC featured the likes of Wade Endress, Ed Schrom, and Logan Mohn a year ago so that meet was solid before as well. Shearn also ran faster on the track by a bunch (somewhere in the low 9:20s and mid to low 4:20s with a couple state medals). Quinn may be close to Hibbs, but he still has let other guys slip in between the two of them. And as I said before, I'm not extremely high on Hibbs compared to other guys. Sure I think he will win states, but that's just because I haven't found another guy who I think has the talent do it. Dustin Wilson is still not in the PIAA last time I checked so I'm out of options for guys who have proven they are legitimately better than Hibbs.
Overall, I opted more towards the second argument than the first and thus Quinn falls perhaps a little farther than he is on most's rankings.
Hey it could have been worse for the guy, after Paul Short Max Norris may also be ahead of him.
-train
So here we go why is Conner Quinn ranked the spot he is. Well quite frankly, I think you can make an arguement Quinn is too high on my list or too low on my list, so therefore I put him in the middle of those two arguements.
Argument for a higher rank:
Quinn trains with Sam Hibbs. Quinn has raced within 5-10 seconds of Hibbs every race this season. Hibbs is the favorite for the state championship. Therefore, Quinn is a top 5 guy. Very logical arguement. He was 20th at States a year ago and ran the fastest out of all the sophomore's at states (not 100% positive on that stat but I'm pretty sure that's right). He is starting out much faster than he did last season time wise and running times fairly similar to Hibbs at this point last year and Hibbs took 7th in what I consider a deeper field than this years at the AAA level.
Pretty solid stats, pretty solid argument.
Argument for a lower rank:
Quinn trains and runs close to Sam Hibbs but he still has lost to a bunch of other runners. At Prestates he lost Connor Harriman, at Viking he lost to Max Norris, at Briarwood he ran a slower time than Dan Savage and Mike Billotta yet all those guys are fairly far behind him on the list. Now he beat Savage and Bilotta at Pre States and they were in the faster race at Briarwood with guys to chase but Quinn didn't win his race at Briarwood either. Meanwhile Brendan Shearn at 7 just one spot ahead of Quinn is undefeated this season fairly convincingly winning his two races with relative ease. Carlisle was the biggest meet of the year last year and although it clearly wasn't this year, he still won. And PTXC featured the likes of Wade Endress, Ed Schrom, and Logan Mohn a year ago so that meet was solid before as well. Shearn also ran faster on the track by a bunch (somewhere in the low 9:20s and mid to low 4:20s with a couple state medals). Quinn may be close to Hibbs, but he still has let other guys slip in between the two of them. And as I said before, I'm not extremely high on Hibbs compared to other guys. Sure I think he will win states, but that's just because I haven't found another guy who I think has the talent do it. Dustin Wilson is still not in the PIAA last time I checked so I'm out of options for guys who have proven they are legitimately better than Hibbs.
Overall, I opted more towards the second argument than the first and thus Quinn falls perhaps a little farther than he is on most's rankings.
Hey it could have been worse for the guy, after Paul Short Max Norris may also be ahead of him.
-train
Mid Week Long Run
First of all I just wanted to say I really appreciate all the comments and questions. I'm working the best I can to fill you guys in on my thinking. Still on my to do list is the Conner Quinn talk and the "How'd they get here?" segment for talking about how the top guys looked in their younger days.
But for right now I wanted to continue my new trend of posting called the mid week long run and talk about the meet I'm looking forward to this weekend which is the Paul Short Invitational at Lehigh Universtiy. I myself will be there this year for the college races (not the high school ones this year as I am not reporting) and the atmosphere should, as always, be electric. Admittedly mud looks like it could be a slight issue again, yet I still expect to see fast times. The weather on race day itself seems pretty solid.
This race always features big names and fast times, plenty of guys usually smoke the 16 minute barrier and this year I see no signs that things will be different. Last year 6 guys were under 16 minutes in the Brown race and out of the AAA guys, 5 went on to grab state medals and a few more AA men went on to grab medals of their own including outdoor 3200m state champion Jon Trueman (18th last year).
Just running down the list here are some guys I currently either have on my top 50 or think easily could be on my top 50 that are signed up to run this Friday across from Goodman Stadium. Sorry if I forget someone or mix up team names in my head.
#26 Sean Burke, Abington Heights
#19 Korey Replogle, Altoona
#38 Dylan Moutain, Altoona
#1 Dustin Wilson, Chesnut Hill Academy
#4 Quinn Devlin, Downingtown West
#43 Kenny Leidel, Downingtown West
Cole Campbell, Emmaus
#6 Ned Willg, Great Valley
Matt Willig, Great Valley
# 13 Max Norris, Harriton
Jon Kays, Haverford
#42 Zach Israel, Holy Ghost Prep
Ryan Horgan, Holy Ghost Prep
#14 Tom Coyle, LaSalle
#7 Brendan Shearn, North Schuylkill
Will Cather, State College Area
#30 Jeff Seelaus, Strath Haven
#50 Ben Robinson, Tunkhannock
#49 Jake Siegel, Tunkhannock
#18 Aaron Wilkinson, Valley View
Anybody from West Chester Henderson if they show up
Quite a long list of guys who are amongst the best that I've seen. For me the favorite is obviously Wilson who has proven that he is the elite of this year's PA stand outs, but looking down the list I see a lot of potential for breakout performances time wise. Now Quinn Devlin is a big question mark because I haven't seen him race, but if he is in this race and ready to go he's a front runner who won't let Wilson get away. It could pull him to a great time. In conference rival Ned Willig has to have new found confidence after his track season and I very impressive opening race performance at Briarwood. This course plays more to his speed advantage and if he can hang around with Dustin long enough, it is very realistic to think he can outkick him for the win. Willig ran under 16 minutes on this course as a freshman.
Not too far down the list a couple of guys to watch would be the Jrs Max Norris, Tom Coyle, and Brendan Shearn. Shearn is undefeated this season at two big invitationals and I am sure he has his eyes set on competing for the win again today. Hard to say for sure where his fitness is at because he really hasn't been challenged to date. This course doesn't seem to play to his strengths comapred to guys like Willig who have got a lot more speed, but he can definitely mix it up with the top group.
Meanwhile speed is Tom Coyle and Max Norris's middle name. Coyle split 1:54 at Penn Relays and Max Norris is sub 4:20 for 1600m. Coyle has taken the next step to become a very solid XC participant in addition to his track success after his 2nd place finish at Carlisle. Norris meanwhile has been fairly silent since just missing Sam Hibbs at the Viking Invite. Should be exciting to watch these too, especially over the last 1000m.
A few deep sleepers to leave you with. Haven't been all that impressed by Replogle or Wilkinson but these two guys are proven state medalists who have mixed it up in quality fields before. Replogle looked better at Carlisle than some of his previous races this season which is a good sign. Wilkinson got rocked by a clearly much improved Luke Jones earlier this fall, so he still may be better than last season. Only time will tell.
Finally, my big super sleeper to watch in the race is Jeff Seelaus of Strath Haven. He already has a big win to his name over Mac Emery and he comes from a Strath Haven program that has had a lot of talent guys go through their system. He may have a breakout performance to prove he has taken the next step to the elite level this friday.
-train
But for right now I wanted to continue my new trend of posting called the mid week long run and talk about the meet I'm looking forward to this weekend which is the Paul Short Invitational at Lehigh Universtiy. I myself will be there this year for the college races (not the high school ones this year as I am not reporting) and the atmosphere should, as always, be electric. Admittedly mud looks like it could be a slight issue again, yet I still expect to see fast times. The weather on race day itself seems pretty solid.
This race always features big names and fast times, plenty of guys usually smoke the 16 minute barrier and this year I see no signs that things will be different. Last year 6 guys were under 16 minutes in the Brown race and out of the AAA guys, 5 went on to grab state medals and a few more AA men went on to grab medals of their own including outdoor 3200m state champion Jon Trueman (18th last year).
Just running down the list here are some guys I currently either have on my top 50 or think easily could be on my top 50 that are signed up to run this Friday across from Goodman Stadium. Sorry if I forget someone or mix up team names in my head.
#26 Sean Burke, Abington Heights
#19 Korey Replogle, Altoona
#38 Dylan Moutain, Altoona
#1 Dustin Wilson, Chesnut Hill Academy
#4 Quinn Devlin, Downingtown West
#43 Kenny Leidel, Downingtown West
Cole Campbell, Emmaus
#6 Ned Willg, Great Valley
Matt Willig, Great Valley
# 13 Max Norris, Harriton
Jon Kays, Haverford
#42 Zach Israel, Holy Ghost Prep
Ryan Horgan, Holy Ghost Prep
#14 Tom Coyle, LaSalle
#7 Brendan Shearn, North Schuylkill
Will Cather, State College Area
#30 Jeff Seelaus, Strath Haven
#50 Ben Robinson, Tunkhannock
#49 Jake Siegel, Tunkhannock
#18 Aaron Wilkinson, Valley View
Anybody from West Chester Henderson if they show up
Quite a long list of guys who are amongst the best that I've seen. For me the favorite is obviously Wilson who has proven that he is the elite of this year's PA stand outs, but looking down the list I see a lot of potential for breakout performances time wise. Now Quinn Devlin is a big question mark because I haven't seen him race, but if he is in this race and ready to go he's a front runner who won't let Wilson get away. It could pull him to a great time. In conference rival Ned Willig has to have new found confidence after his track season and I very impressive opening race performance at Briarwood. This course plays more to his speed advantage and if he can hang around with Dustin long enough, it is very realistic to think he can outkick him for the win. Willig ran under 16 minutes on this course as a freshman.
Not too far down the list a couple of guys to watch would be the Jrs Max Norris, Tom Coyle, and Brendan Shearn. Shearn is undefeated this season at two big invitationals and I am sure he has his eyes set on competing for the win again today. Hard to say for sure where his fitness is at because he really hasn't been challenged to date. This course doesn't seem to play to his strengths comapred to guys like Willig who have got a lot more speed, but he can definitely mix it up with the top group.
Meanwhile speed is Tom Coyle and Max Norris's middle name. Coyle split 1:54 at Penn Relays and Max Norris is sub 4:20 for 1600m. Coyle has taken the next step to become a very solid XC participant in addition to his track success after his 2nd place finish at Carlisle. Norris meanwhile has been fairly silent since just missing Sam Hibbs at the Viking Invite. Should be exciting to watch these too, especially over the last 1000m.
A few deep sleepers to leave you with. Haven't been all that impressed by Replogle or Wilkinson but these two guys are proven state medalists who have mixed it up in quality fields before. Replogle looked better at Carlisle than some of his previous races this season which is a good sign. Wilkinson got rocked by a clearly much improved Luke Jones earlier this fall, so he still may be better than last season. Only time will tell.
Finally, my big super sleeper to watch in the race is Jeff Seelaus of Strath Haven. He already has a big win to his name over Mac Emery and he comes from a Strath Haven program that has had a lot of talent guys go through their system. He may have a breakout performance to prove he has taken the next step to the elite level this friday.
-train
Hibbs and Kutcha
So here's my thoughts on this little match up of man power right here. First of all I have to admit that a part of me made this move because I was getting bored with the rankings the way they were and wanted to spice things up a little bit. I did the same thing last year around this point when I moved Endress over Gil the week before Carlisle. Does that discredit the rankings a little bit, yes, of course it does. But I do have an arguement behind my reasoning (which most of you will probably not agree with, but hopefully at least respect).
So here we go. First off I want to say why Sam Hibbs is still my pick to win states in about a month. And yes he is still my pick to win even if the rankings don't reflect that. As I have said before these are right now rankings and right now my gut says Kutcha but if I was a betting man I'd bet on Hibbs for the long haul. Here's why.
For starter's Hibbs is the top returner from last year, the top returner from the 2 mile at states (98% sure anyway) and he is undefeated thus far this XC season. He comes from a great historic program and family that already has a footlocker finalist to their name and he has one of the best training partners in the state in Conner Quinn. He peaked at the right time each of the past two years and has excelled on hillier courses. He is consistent and there are no clear weaknesses in his running.
So the obvious question is now, what could possibly be wrong with the guy. My reason, as said above, you will probably be very unimpressed with, is the "wow" factor. When I saw Ben Furcht's opening season result's two years ago, I knew he was going to do something big. When I saw Tarsnane run his 3200s at Districts and States junior year, you knew he'd have a big XC season in the fall. When Ryan Gil broke free and ran 9:03 in the 3200m he was an obvious favorite for gold. I've seen a lot of performances that have made me say wow this season, however, none of them have been from Hibbs. Part of this is of course the fact that most people expect him to win and he does, but it is the way he is winning that is different. He won the prestates meet with a time slower than what it took to win the Blue race (not by much but is Sam Williams on the same level as Sam Hibbs? Not in these rankings and certainly not by most people's estimate's on penntrack). He didn't race Dustin Wilson at Briarwood (talk about a wow race) and easily won his race in a time comparable to Ned Willig's time, only Ned was doing it literally all alone (much more of a wow race for me).
So why Kutcha then? Well Kutcha has run a big wow race before (somewhere around 9:16-9:18 for the 3200m last spring) and that really launched him onto the scene. He wasn't a big name last spring like Hibbs, he hasn't had all the talk or state medals or anything like that. He is only just now experiencing and learning how to run on the big scene. He was shadowed by guys like Bobby Bishop and Matt Cecala and TJ Hobart and Dennis Logan and Paul Degregorio and the list goes on, but now he's the guy for the first time (unlike Hibbs whose been the guy since Sophomore year). So that will take time to learn the ropes. Solid race at Gateway Invite to start the season (course record I believe) finishes just behind Moran at RWB and fairly far behind Jaskowak but within striking distance. Then he just destroyed a field (a weak field but all the same) at Maymont this past weekend and looked like he was heading up while Moran and Steiner took a sharp dip the other way.
The only other guy who I could have seen realistically usurping Hibbs for the #2 spot is Jaskowak because Willig hasn't raced enough and Devlin hasn't raced period (besides a couple dual meets I heard about). But for me, despite amazing numbers, I can't quite feel comfortable posting up Jaskowak at #2. Its so early to be running this fast with seemingly no previous accomplishments to suggest a jump like this (besides training with Jacob Kildoo for a couple seasons). So for me I need just a tiny bit more proof that the guy isn't peaking too early. Hey he's a very, very close #5 right now so obviously I think the guy is good.
Overall, Hibbs is still the favorite for states without a doubt. No one has one states after not at least medaling the year before (this is on the AAA side folks) since another Baldwin guy way back in 2001 (i think) named Dan Mazzacco. Hebda couldn't do it last year, Furcht before him and the list goes on.
Should be fun to find out.
-train
So here we go. First off I want to say why Sam Hibbs is still my pick to win states in about a month. And yes he is still my pick to win even if the rankings don't reflect that. As I have said before these are right now rankings and right now my gut says Kutcha but if I was a betting man I'd bet on Hibbs for the long haul. Here's why.
For starter's Hibbs is the top returner from last year, the top returner from the 2 mile at states (98% sure anyway) and he is undefeated thus far this XC season. He comes from a great historic program and family that already has a footlocker finalist to their name and he has one of the best training partners in the state in Conner Quinn. He peaked at the right time each of the past two years and has excelled on hillier courses. He is consistent and there are no clear weaknesses in his running.
So the obvious question is now, what could possibly be wrong with the guy. My reason, as said above, you will probably be very unimpressed with, is the "wow" factor. When I saw Ben Furcht's opening season result's two years ago, I knew he was going to do something big. When I saw Tarsnane run his 3200s at Districts and States junior year, you knew he'd have a big XC season in the fall. When Ryan Gil broke free and ran 9:03 in the 3200m he was an obvious favorite for gold. I've seen a lot of performances that have made me say wow this season, however, none of them have been from Hibbs. Part of this is of course the fact that most people expect him to win and he does, but it is the way he is winning that is different. He won the prestates meet with a time slower than what it took to win the Blue race (not by much but is Sam Williams on the same level as Sam Hibbs? Not in these rankings and certainly not by most people's estimate's on penntrack). He didn't race Dustin Wilson at Briarwood (talk about a wow race) and easily won his race in a time comparable to Ned Willig's time, only Ned was doing it literally all alone (much more of a wow race for me).
So why Kutcha then? Well Kutcha has run a big wow race before (somewhere around 9:16-9:18 for the 3200m last spring) and that really launched him onto the scene. He wasn't a big name last spring like Hibbs, he hasn't had all the talk or state medals or anything like that. He is only just now experiencing and learning how to run on the big scene. He was shadowed by guys like Bobby Bishop and Matt Cecala and TJ Hobart and Dennis Logan and Paul Degregorio and the list goes on, but now he's the guy for the first time (unlike Hibbs whose been the guy since Sophomore year). So that will take time to learn the ropes. Solid race at Gateway Invite to start the season (course record I believe) finishes just behind Moran at RWB and fairly far behind Jaskowak but within striking distance. Then he just destroyed a field (a weak field but all the same) at Maymont this past weekend and looked like he was heading up while Moran and Steiner took a sharp dip the other way.
The only other guy who I could have seen realistically usurping Hibbs for the #2 spot is Jaskowak because Willig hasn't raced enough and Devlin hasn't raced period (besides a couple dual meets I heard about). But for me, despite amazing numbers, I can't quite feel comfortable posting up Jaskowak at #2. Its so early to be running this fast with seemingly no previous accomplishments to suggest a jump like this (besides training with Jacob Kildoo for a couple seasons). So for me I need just a tiny bit more proof that the guy isn't peaking too early. Hey he's a very, very close #5 right now so obviously I think the guy is good.
Overall, Hibbs is still the favorite for states without a doubt. No one has one states after not at least medaling the year before (this is on the AAA side folks) since another Baldwin guy way back in 2001 (i think) named Dan Mazzacco. Hebda couldn't do it last year, Furcht before him and the list goes on.
Should be fun to find out.
-train
XC Top 50 Summary
Alright so yes this is later than expected to post the rankings and yes I am a little out of touch, but hey I got it up eventually (yes that is what she said). So folks here are my new rankings which kinda look very different from the old rankings but not as different as I thought they may.
I've got a lot I'd like to say about this stuff, but I don't know what specifically you want to hear about. I could sit here and ramble for a while on way I think Kutcha is so good when all you want to hear about is Tom Coyle, or tell you why Strynkowski was such a let down when you want to hear about Steiner.
So either facebook message me, text me, call me, comment on here or penntrack message me and I'll let you know in full detail. I love talking about this stuff and I want to prove I'm not that out of touch so feel free to hit me up.
-train
I've got a lot I'd like to say about this stuff, but I don't know what specifically you want to hear about. I could sit here and ramble for a while on way I think Kutcha is so good when all you want to hear about is Tom Coyle, or tell you why Strynkowski was such a let down when you want to hear about Steiner.
So either facebook message me, text me, call me, comment on here or penntrack message me and I'll let you know in full detail. I love talking about this stuff and I want to prove I'm not that out of touch so feel free to hit me up.
-train
XC Top 50 9/27
1. Dustin Wilson
2. Andrew Kutcha
3. Sam Hibbs
4. Quinn Devlin
5. Dan Jaskowak
6. Ned Willig
7. Brendan Shearn
8. Conner Quinn
9. Alex Moran
10. Logan Steiner
11. LJ Westwood
12. Connor Harriman
13. Max Norris
14. Tom Coyle
15. Drew Magaha
16. Sam Williams
17. Ryan Smathers
18. Aaron Wilkinson
19. Korey Replogle
20. Curt Jewett
21. Luke Jones
22. Brent Kennedy
23. Mike Runco
24. Dan Savage
25. Ean DiSilvio
26. Sean Burke
27. Dan Davis
28. Mac Emery
29. Jack MaCauley
30. Jeff Seelaus
31. Francis Ferruzzi
32. Lawtin Tellin
33. Alex Kane
34. Mike Billotta
35. Connor Strynkowski
36. Brett Kelly
37. Nate Kreider
38. Dylan Mountain
39. Tim Appman
40. John Ausel
41. Jeff Groh
42. Zach Israel
43. Kenny Leidel
44. Matt Croft
45. Chris Muldoon
46. Adam Catora
47. Evan Williams
48. Zach Moon
49. Jake Seigel
50. Ben Robinson
2. Andrew Kutcha
3. Sam Hibbs
4. Quinn Devlin
5. Dan Jaskowak
6. Ned Willig
7. Brendan Shearn
8. Conner Quinn
9. Alex Moran
10. Logan Steiner
11. LJ Westwood
12. Connor Harriman
13. Max Norris
14. Tom Coyle
15. Drew Magaha
16. Sam Williams
17. Ryan Smathers
18. Aaron Wilkinson
19. Korey Replogle
20. Curt Jewett
21. Luke Jones
22. Brent Kennedy
23. Mike Runco
24. Dan Savage
25. Ean DiSilvio
26. Sean Burke
27. Dan Davis
28. Mac Emery
29. Jack MaCauley
30. Jeff Seelaus
31. Francis Ferruzzi
32. Lawtin Tellin
33. Alex Kane
34. Mike Billotta
35. Connor Strynkowski
36. Brett Kelly
37. Nate Kreider
38. Dylan Mountain
39. Tim Appman
40. John Ausel
41. Jeff Groh
42. Zach Israel
43. Kenny Leidel
44. Matt Croft
45. Chris Muldoon
46. Adam Catora
47. Evan Williams
48. Zach Moon
49. Jake Seigel
50. Ben Robinson
Midweek Long Run
This weekend there will be a meet that is commonly refered to as the "pre-states" meet at Hershey's cross country course that will play host to the 2011 PIAA State Championships in just over a month. However, the true states preview race is not happening in Hershey, but instead at Carlisle High School at the biggest invitational of the season.
This race over the past few years has truly blossomed into the biggest midseason meet any team can run in. Last year the race produced an astounding amount of future state medalists and team title contenders. Out of the 25 AAA state medalists in 2010, 13 of them ran in this race. 1st place finisher Ryan Gil was a distant 4th in the race, while state runner up Wade Endress was 2nd to Martin Hehir, a future footlocker finalist from New York. The race also included top 10 finishers at States Jacob Kildoo (5th at states, 6th at this meet), Reece Ayers (6th at States, 12th at Carlisle) and Sam Hibbs (7th at States, 9th at Carlisle). And of course AA State Champion Tom Gruschow was also in the race, finishing 31st.
In the team race, Tunkhannock (6th at States, 9th at Carlisle), Mt. Lebanon (7th at States, 6th at Carlisle), Hatboro Horhsam (8th at States, 11th at Carlisle), LaSalle (10th at States, 4th at Carlisle), North Penn (2nd at District One Championships, 17th at Carlisle), Altoona (5th at States, 2nd at Carlisle), and North Allegheny (1st at both meets) were all in attendance. Wow.
This year things shouldn't be less epic. When factoring in the Challenge race and the Championship race there are a lot of guys who were in the top 50 at states a year ago who are coming out to race. Quinn Devlin is the top returner from the meet. He was 5th here a year ago but had back luck at states dropping him to 26th at the big race (3rd at Districts, just a spot behind Hibbs). Hibbs is the top returner from the State Championships and is coupled with the top sophomore from the meet Conner Quinn (20th at States, 18th at Carlisle).
Other top 5 at states hopefuls include Alex Moran and Logan Steiner who were 14th and 13th at states a year ago and 14th and 11th at this meet.
Other men returning from the top 50 last year include Korey Replogle, Matt Croft, Connor Strynkowski, Dan Davis, Jake Seigel, and Dan Jaskowak (a name you should know).
Plus guys like Lawtin Tellin, Tom Coyle, Francis Ferruzzi, Jack Macauley and Brendan Shearn are all supposedly entered this year and are ranked in my top 50.
Meanwhile North Allegheny, Mt. Lebanon, and North Penn are all teams to watch this season and all competed in this meet a year ago.
Overall this meet should be epic and it is something you definitely don't want to miss.
This race over the past few years has truly blossomed into the biggest midseason meet any team can run in. Last year the race produced an astounding amount of future state medalists and team title contenders. Out of the 25 AAA state medalists in 2010, 13 of them ran in this race. 1st place finisher Ryan Gil was a distant 4th in the race, while state runner up Wade Endress was 2nd to Martin Hehir, a future footlocker finalist from New York. The race also included top 10 finishers at States Jacob Kildoo (5th at states, 6th at this meet), Reece Ayers (6th at States, 12th at Carlisle) and Sam Hibbs (7th at States, 9th at Carlisle). And of course AA State Champion Tom Gruschow was also in the race, finishing 31st.
In the team race, Tunkhannock (6th at States, 9th at Carlisle), Mt. Lebanon (7th at States, 6th at Carlisle), Hatboro Horhsam (8th at States, 11th at Carlisle), LaSalle (10th at States, 4th at Carlisle), North Penn (2nd at District One Championships, 17th at Carlisle), Altoona (5th at States, 2nd at Carlisle), and North Allegheny (1st at both meets) were all in attendance. Wow.
This year things shouldn't be less epic. When factoring in the Challenge race and the Championship race there are a lot of guys who were in the top 50 at states a year ago who are coming out to race. Quinn Devlin is the top returner from the meet. He was 5th here a year ago but had back luck at states dropping him to 26th at the big race (3rd at Districts, just a spot behind Hibbs). Hibbs is the top returner from the State Championships and is coupled with the top sophomore from the meet Conner Quinn (20th at States, 18th at Carlisle).
Other top 5 at states hopefuls include Alex Moran and Logan Steiner who were 14th and 13th at states a year ago and 14th and 11th at this meet.
Other men returning from the top 50 last year include Korey Replogle, Matt Croft, Connor Strynkowski, Dan Davis, Jake Seigel, and Dan Jaskowak (a name you should know).
Plus guys like Lawtin Tellin, Tom Coyle, Francis Ferruzzi, Jack Macauley and Brendan Shearn are all supposedly entered this year and are ranked in my top 50.
Meanwhile North Allegheny, Mt. Lebanon, and North Penn are all teams to watch this season and all competed in this meet a year ago.
Overall this meet should be epic and it is something you definitely don't want to miss.
Friday Stat
First off I would like to give my sincere congrats to Mt. Lebanon on earning the top spot on Penntrack's team rankings this week. They completely deserve this honor and have had some very nice early season races.
That being said, here's my stat:
North Allegheny hasn't lost at WPIALs since 2004.
In 2004 when NA did last lose, they had a top five that featured three freshman and no seniors and dropped 178 points on the championship course.
Since that time they have scored under 100 points at every championship, averaged just a shade under 71 points per. Not to mention that during a three year span from 2006 to 2008 the team from Wexford scored a combined 162 points at the meet. In the past five seasons North Allegheny has been 3rd twice, 2nd once and 1st this past season at the State Championships.
In 2007 the team was a highly praised favorite for the State Championship, however they were underwhelming at the big meets like Carlisle and states. On top of that, they lost their top two runners from the previous year who were 9th and 12th at states, with sub 16 times on their resume. Needless to say people didn't expect what they saw in 2008.
NA ended up in the top 15 at Nationals behind a tight spread and guys like Chase Broussard and Eric Balaban taking a step from JV nobody to household name. If not for a string of bad luck at states the team may have been gold, but they ended up off the medal stand behind surprise team LaSalle.
So in 2009 when they lost three of their top 5 runners from a National qualifier there was not much hope for a better finish at states. Except North Allegheny managed to finish better at states. Taking 2nd with a 3rd place finish by Gil and some random runners like Cadwaller pulling through in the clutch.
But again they lost a bunch of guys from the 2009 squad so could they continue to stay on top? Well in 2010 they proved all the doubters wrong behind a Gold medal from Ryan Gil despite struggling through a broken foot all season and finishing just 4th at the District Championships behind 3 guys wearing the same jersey.
Admittedly, the past few years its been close. Baldwin has ran a couple very solid races at the WPIAL course and given NA a run for their money, but still guys like Mike Meehan come from seemingly thin air and help carry the team back to the top.
And this year its not Baldwin who NA will be competing with at the stretch run for the WPIAL title, its Mt. Lebanon. Baldwin historically always had huge performances at the WPIAL Championsips, before somewhat large let downs at states. Guys like TJ Hobart and Dave Adley had their best races of the season at Cooper's Lake. Meanwhile guys like Alex Moran have gotten smacked around a little at WPIALs. Moran was 8th there a year ago and 14th at states. Gunzenhauser was beaten by 13 seconds for the title in 2009 by Ryan Gil, who he flipped the script on the next week at states, nearly taking the title. Moran didn't make it to states in 2009 in a surprising turn of events. He missed it by just one spot.
So why should history be different this year? Is there any reason to believe someone like Vincent Tonzo will stay hidden in the middle of race results for NA when he is coming off a killer 1:55 800 performance in the spring? Is Sam Bojarski really going to continue hovering around 17 flat when he ran 4:24 on the track a few months ago?
And these two aren't even a part of the returners from the team that WON the state championship a year ago.
Good luck to everybody else.
-train
So now its time to let us know what you think. Vote for who you think will win the WPIAL this season on the poll on the side bar and feel free to drop me a comment with your opinion.
That being said, here's my stat:
North Allegheny hasn't lost at WPIALs since 2004.
In 2004 when NA did last lose, they had a top five that featured three freshman and no seniors and dropped 178 points on the championship course.
Since that time they have scored under 100 points at every championship, averaged just a shade under 71 points per. Not to mention that during a three year span from 2006 to 2008 the team from Wexford scored a combined 162 points at the meet. In the past five seasons North Allegheny has been 3rd twice, 2nd once and 1st this past season at the State Championships.
In 2007 the team was a highly praised favorite for the State Championship, however they were underwhelming at the big meets like Carlisle and states. On top of that, they lost their top two runners from the previous year who were 9th and 12th at states, with sub 16 times on their resume. Needless to say people didn't expect what they saw in 2008.
NA ended up in the top 15 at Nationals behind a tight spread and guys like Chase Broussard and Eric Balaban taking a step from JV nobody to household name. If not for a string of bad luck at states the team may have been gold, but they ended up off the medal stand behind surprise team LaSalle.
So in 2009 when they lost three of their top 5 runners from a National qualifier there was not much hope for a better finish at states. Except North Allegheny managed to finish better at states. Taking 2nd with a 3rd place finish by Gil and some random runners like Cadwaller pulling through in the clutch.
But again they lost a bunch of guys from the 2009 squad so could they continue to stay on top? Well in 2010 they proved all the doubters wrong behind a Gold medal from Ryan Gil despite struggling through a broken foot all season and finishing just 4th at the District Championships behind 3 guys wearing the same jersey.
Admittedly, the past few years its been close. Baldwin has ran a couple very solid races at the WPIAL course and given NA a run for their money, but still guys like Mike Meehan come from seemingly thin air and help carry the team back to the top.
And this year its not Baldwin who NA will be competing with at the stretch run for the WPIAL title, its Mt. Lebanon. Baldwin historically always had huge performances at the WPIAL Championsips, before somewhat large let downs at states. Guys like TJ Hobart and Dave Adley had their best races of the season at Cooper's Lake. Meanwhile guys like Alex Moran have gotten smacked around a little at WPIALs. Moran was 8th there a year ago and 14th at states. Gunzenhauser was beaten by 13 seconds for the title in 2009 by Ryan Gil, who he flipped the script on the next week at states, nearly taking the title. Moran didn't make it to states in 2009 in a surprising turn of events. He missed it by just one spot.
So why should history be different this year? Is there any reason to believe someone like Vincent Tonzo will stay hidden in the middle of race results for NA when he is coming off a killer 1:55 800 performance in the spring? Is Sam Bojarski really going to continue hovering around 17 flat when he ran 4:24 on the track a few months ago?
And these two aren't even a part of the returners from the team that WON the state championship a year ago.
Good luck to everybody else.
-train
So now its time to let us know what you think. Vote for who you think will win the WPIAL this season on the poll on the side bar and feel free to drop me a comment with your opinion.
Mid-Week Long Run
It's that time of the week when its hard to see the finish line through the trees, or should I say through the cornfields at Lehigh, and you would rather be searching up Paul Short results from 5 years ago than sitting at lunch talking to your friends. Well, ok bad example, but the point is, you need something to look forward to at the end of the week and for most of us thats race time. Although I personally don't race this week, there is some interesting action slated for this coming weekend and I thought I'd give you a little etrain flavored enthusiasm for what's ahead.
The meet I want to talk about for this weekend is the Briarwood Invitational at Belmont Plateau. Some guys got a sneak preview of what to expect from that course this past weekend at the 4xXC meet which featured a bunch of names on the rise like Tom Coyle, Max Norris, Francis Ferruzzi and Andrew Stone just to name a few. This weekend a few of those guys should be back, plus lots more talent from not just PA.
Its hard to believe that it has now been 4 years since I last ran in the Briarwood Invitational JV race. Honestly, the course is fun to run, but its a huge challenge. Sophomore me was more than satisfied running 19:20ish. It starts out with a tough grass hill right from the gun, a steep down hill loop into the first mile and then of course Parachute Hill which still haunts my nightmares. This course is used for the PCL guys a lot and it has to help mentally prepare you for the states course (even if it doesn't physically prepare you, running it a week out from the big dance).
But I'm a stat guy and the fact that the last number I threw at you was one of my own relatively insignificant high school times is eating away at my insides right now. Or that may have to do with the fact that I only had three bowls of cereal at breakfast this morning, rather than the five I had yesterday. I am so college.
So lets crunch numbers. In 2008, 4 years ago when I ran the course, Chris Bodary won the championship race and took down a very impressive course record that belonged to South Moreland's Chris Dugan (roughly 9 flat two miler) from his 1996 run. His time was 15:47.
But perhaps what was more interesting was considering the names and times behind Bodary. Norht Penn of course had their first break out race and began to build up their reputation for being a cross country power. Finishing 2nd was Zach Hoagland (15:49), 4th was Brad Miles (16:06, sophomore) and 10th was Zack Montijo (16:30). Ironically, by states the three completely flip flopped (Montijo, Miles, Hoagland) and Miles and Montijo dropped under 15:30 by Districts (Hoagland was at about the same time).
Meanwhile other individuals who were behind Bodary and the course record run probably do not wish they could trade places with him in retrospect. 3rd place finisher Dan Lowry ran just 16:06 but by November was the 12th place finisher at the Footlocker Regional, barely missing a trip to nationals. And oh yeah he split 4:12 on the DMR anchor leg indoors. So he did just fine.
In 7th place was a name you also might recoginize: Joe Rosa. His freshman year campaign was started off with a modest 16:27.
But Rosa would wait to really drop the hammer until the coming years where as a Sophomore in 2008 he reset the course record by a tiny bit (15:33.1 from it's 15:47 from the previous year, p.s. tiny bit was sarcasm). Then he managed to find a way to lower it by just a little more in 2009 (15:19.2). So yeah the kid could striaght roll. Hes graduated now so I don't expect any miracles to go down this year and watch the record get dropped again, but hey I guess you never know.
So what about some other big names times in past years on the course?
2008
3rd DeSabato, Sr FCS 15:47 (Top 20 at FL Regionals)
4th Keefe, Sr CRS 15:57 (Top 10 at Districts, No State Medal)
5th Miles, Jr NP 16:08 (7th at States)
6th Ivo Milic, Sr FCS 16:14 (Indoor State Champ in the Mile)
9th Sam Bernitt, Jr NP 16:18 (10th at States)
10th Chris O'Sullivan, Jr SJP 16:20 (24th at States)
24th Tom O'Kane, Jr LaSalle 16:48 (25th at States)
2009
3rd Miles, Sr NP 15:47 (1st at States and FL Regionals so I guess he did ok)
5th O'Sullivan, Sr SJP 16:14 (18th at States)
Sam Hibbs, So Hatboro Horsham 16:50 (12th at States)
2010
1st Tom Trainer, Sr LaSalle 16:10 (17th at States, 2nd Indoor 3000m)
3rd Chris Garrity, Sr O'Hara 16:24 (22nd at States)
So now for the tough part where the real analysts make their money. What do these numbers mean?
Well for one thing it means without the Rosa's times are going to be slower. Trainer wins in 2010 with a time good enough to land Ivo 6th 2 years earlier. But hey that's how things go, great runners graduate and move on and meets adjust, people step in. I can tell you that somebody usually emerges as a sleeper from a race like this such as O'Kane, Hibbs Bernitt and Garrity did with modest times and great states finishes. Someone like that should produce down the line. And at this meet there is firepower, but necessarily from the top PA finishers. Sure Miles won after his great performance here, but look at guys like Bodary and Hoagland and Keefe under 16 minutes but not finishing at States the way they started. Meanwhile Dan Lowry and Zack Montijo were pinning their ears back at states and districts and regionals and making noise when it counted.
Overall you can't read too much into results from this point in the season but I have to think Sam Hibbs is going to either assert himself as a state title contender at a race like this. There shouldn't be too deep of a field although I have heard teams like Great Valley may show up that would definitely shake things up. Admittedly Hibbs and Quinn (17:20 on this course last year, took 20th at states) were at the Division One race, not the Championship race every year since I have followed the meet (i.e. Hatboro Horsham was) so that could definitely complicate the matter.
I'm excited to get a feel for how these returning state medalist do, the Great Valley guys (if they finally have anything close to a full team) and some of the LaSalle and O'Hara youngsters who know this course and have something to prove.
One thing is for sure if O'Hara wins big, we will probably hear about how no one picked them to win. Bummer.
The meet I want to talk about for this weekend is the Briarwood Invitational at Belmont Plateau. Some guys got a sneak preview of what to expect from that course this past weekend at the 4xXC meet which featured a bunch of names on the rise like Tom Coyle, Max Norris, Francis Ferruzzi and Andrew Stone just to name a few. This weekend a few of those guys should be back, plus lots more talent from not just PA.
Its hard to believe that it has now been 4 years since I last ran in the Briarwood Invitational JV race. Honestly, the course is fun to run, but its a huge challenge. Sophomore me was more than satisfied running 19:20ish. It starts out with a tough grass hill right from the gun, a steep down hill loop into the first mile and then of course Parachute Hill which still haunts my nightmares. This course is used for the PCL guys a lot and it has to help mentally prepare you for the states course (even if it doesn't physically prepare you, running it a week out from the big dance).
But I'm a stat guy and the fact that the last number I threw at you was one of my own relatively insignificant high school times is eating away at my insides right now. Or that may have to do with the fact that I only had three bowls of cereal at breakfast this morning, rather than the five I had yesterday. I am so college.
So lets crunch numbers. In 2008, 4 years ago when I ran the course, Chris Bodary won the championship race and took down a very impressive course record that belonged to South Moreland's Chris Dugan (roughly 9 flat two miler) from his 1996 run. His time was 15:47.
But perhaps what was more interesting was considering the names and times behind Bodary. Norht Penn of course had their first break out race and began to build up their reputation for being a cross country power. Finishing 2nd was Zach Hoagland (15:49), 4th was Brad Miles (16:06, sophomore) and 10th was Zack Montijo (16:30). Ironically, by states the three completely flip flopped (Montijo, Miles, Hoagland) and Miles and Montijo dropped under 15:30 by Districts (Hoagland was at about the same time).
Meanwhile other individuals who were behind Bodary and the course record run probably do not wish they could trade places with him in retrospect. 3rd place finisher Dan Lowry ran just 16:06 but by November was the 12th place finisher at the Footlocker Regional, barely missing a trip to nationals. And oh yeah he split 4:12 on the DMR anchor leg indoors. So he did just fine.
In 7th place was a name you also might recoginize: Joe Rosa. His freshman year campaign was started off with a modest 16:27.
But Rosa would wait to really drop the hammer until the coming years where as a Sophomore in 2008 he reset the course record by a tiny bit (15:33.1 from it's 15:47 from the previous year, p.s. tiny bit was sarcasm). Then he managed to find a way to lower it by just a little more in 2009 (15:19.2). So yeah the kid could striaght roll. Hes graduated now so I don't expect any miracles to go down this year and watch the record get dropped again, but hey I guess you never know.
So what about some other big names times in past years on the course?
2008
3rd DeSabato, Sr FCS 15:47 (Top 20 at FL Regionals)
4th Keefe, Sr CRS 15:57 (Top 10 at Districts, No State Medal)
5th Miles, Jr NP 16:08 (7th at States)
6th Ivo Milic, Sr FCS 16:14 (Indoor State Champ in the Mile)
9th Sam Bernitt, Jr NP 16:18 (10th at States)
10th Chris O'Sullivan, Jr SJP 16:20 (24th at States)
24th Tom O'Kane, Jr LaSalle 16:48 (25th at States)
2009
3rd Miles, Sr NP 15:47 (1st at States and FL Regionals so I guess he did ok)
5th O'Sullivan, Sr SJP 16:14 (18th at States)
Sam Hibbs, So Hatboro Horsham 16:50 (12th at States)
2010
1st Tom Trainer, Sr LaSalle 16:10 (17th at States, 2nd Indoor 3000m)
3rd Chris Garrity, Sr O'Hara 16:24 (22nd at States)
So now for the tough part where the real analysts make their money. What do these numbers mean?
Well for one thing it means without the Rosa's times are going to be slower. Trainer wins in 2010 with a time good enough to land Ivo 6th 2 years earlier. But hey that's how things go, great runners graduate and move on and meets adjust, people step in. I can tell you that somebody usually emerges as a sleeper from a race like this such as O'Kane, Hibbs Bernitt and Garrity did with modest times and great states finishes. Someone like that should produce down the line. And at this meet there is firepower, but necessarily from the top PA finishers. Sure Miles won after his great performance here, but look at guys like Bodary and Hoagland and Keefe under 16 minutes but not finishing at States the way they started. Meanwhile Dan Lowry and Zack Montijo were pinning their ears back at states and districts and regionals and making noise when it counted.
Overall you can't read too much into results from this point in the season but I have to think Sam Hibbs is going to either assert himself as a state title contender at a race like this. There shouldn't be too deep of a field although I have heard teams like Great Valley may show up that would definitely shake things up. Admittedly Hibbs and Quinn (17:20 on this course last year, took 20th at states) were at the Division One race, not the Championship race every year since I have followed the meet (i.e. Hatboro Horsham was) so that could definitely complicate the matter.
I'm excited to get a feel for how these returning state medalist do, the Great Valley guys (if they finally have anything close to a full team) and some of the LaSalle and O'Hara youngsters who know this course and have something to prove.
One thing is for sure if O'Hara wins big, we will probably hear about how no one picked them to win. Bummer.
Analysis
So here is my opinion in brief on the last month or so of PA cross country. First off, glad to see somebody like Sam Hibbs win a big invitational, might be his first win of the season. Its important to win races like this if you are going to go on to be a state champion. Mac Emery looks like hes going to be pretty good out of CR North and Magaha is actually in good shape in September so watch out. Moran is obviously good but Andrew Kutchta is the guy to watch out of the WPIAL. 9:16 in track last spring seemingly out of nowhere, looks like he is continuing that momentum. Looks like Bobby Bishop will be a no show this year. Dan Davis is the guy to watch early in North Penn camp, MacCauley doesn't look too sharp right now but he didn't look sharp early last season either. Lastly the young guys are making some big noise whether it is Smathers and Groh disappointing in their debuts, or Shearn and Jaskowak with big wins. Jaskowak really ran awesome ,but ill reserve judgement on his season until I see a little more. He was the biggest mover in the rankings this week.
XC Top 50- 9/11
1. Dustin Wilson
2. Sam Hibbs
3. Quinn Devlin
4. Alex Moran
5. Logan Steiner
6. Andrew Kutchta
7. Daniel Jaskowak
8. Ned Willig
9. Brendan Shearn
10. Connor Stynkowski
11. Brett Kelly
12. Aaron Wilkinson
13. LJ Westwood
14. Max Norris
15. Connor Quinn
16. Mac Emery
17. Drew Magaha
18. John Ausel
19. Jeff Seelaus
20. Jack MacCauly
21. Ryan Smathers
22. Brent Kennedy
23. Dan Davis
24. Connor Harriman
25. Ean Disilvio
26. Korey Replogle
27. Sami Aziz
28. Dylan Mountian
29. Matthew Croft
30. Mike Runco
31. Jeff Groh
32. Luke Jones
33. Chris Muldoon
34. Sam Williams
35. Nate Kreider
36. Francis Ferruzzi
37. Curt Jewett
38. Jake Seigel
39. Tom Coyle
40. Zach Moon
41. Owen Glatts
42. Dan Savage
43. Alex Kane
44. Lawtin Tillin
45. Mike Billotta
46. Sean Burke
47. Tim Flanagan
48. Kenny Leidel
49. Tim Appman
50. Nate Palmer
2. Sam Hibbs
3. Quinn Devlin
4. Alex Moran
5. Logan Steiner
6. Andrew Kutchta
7. Daniel Jaskowak
8. Ned Willig
9. Brendan Shearn
10. Connor Stynkowski
11. Brett Kelly
12. Aaron Wilkinson
13. LJ Westwood
14. Max Norris
15. Connor Quinn
16. Mac Emery
17. Drew Magaha
18. John Ausel
19. Jeff Seelaus
20. Jack MacCauly
21. Ryan Smathers
22. Brent Kennedy
23. Dan Davis
24. Connor Harriman
25. Ean Disilvio
26. Korey Replogle
27. Sami Aziz
28. Dylan Mountian
29. Matthew Croft
30. Mike Runco
31. Jeff Groh
32. Luke Jones
33. Chris Muldoon
34. Sam Williams
35. Nate Kreider
36. Francis Ferruzzi
37. Curt Jewett
38. Jake Seigel
39. Tom Coyle
40. Zach Moon
41. Owen Glatts
42. Dan Savage
43. Alex Kane
44. Lawtin Tillin
45. Mike Billotta
46. Sean Burke
47. Tim Flanagan
48. Kenny Leidel
49. Tim Appman
50. Nate Palmer
Guts
Like I said previously part of the appeal of cross country is the intense team spirit, however, what also makes cross country great is watching gutsy performances. I personally believe it takes much more guts to run 5000m of hills and grassy, rocky stretches rather than pounding out 800m on the track. And this is coming from an 800 guy. So real quick I thought I'd talk about some of the gutsiest runners I have seen in cross country and then you can post up some of your own. I'll take all of the nominees and put them in a poll that we can vote on to determine the "Gutsiest runner" of PA XC. So here's what I got.
Mark Dennin- The 2007 State Champion upset Chris Aldrich and Vince McNally by hammering the pace for all 5000m of the race at Hershey. He ended up winning by one of the largest margins in recent years and carried the wave of momentum into fantastic performances at the Mid States meet, the Northeast Regional (2nd), and the Footlocker Championships (13th I believe). That final race, Footlocker, he mixed it up with the likes of German Fernandez, Luke Puskedra, Mike Fout, Chris Derrick, Rob Finnerty, and Donn Cabral.
Ben Furcht- Ben may not have had the build of a typical distance runner, but he put in the mileage and dropped time like a rock. Around 19 minutes as a freshman and nearly sub 15 as a senior, Furcht dropped serious time moving up from in the 50s at states to 11th. He could have even been higher, but after being boxed for a full mile he spent too much in the second mile surging for the lead and went from 3rd to 11th in the final 400m. Furcht also made the trip to Footlocker's Championships.
Jason Weller- Weller ended up being slammed by Paul Springer at Lehigh just a week before states despite unleashing a 14:54. Although most people were picking against him, Weller ran a brutal pace at the state course and managed to drop Springer and win the state championship. It was the clutchest performance I had seen .... up until he topped it in the 3200m again against Springer.
Dustin Wilson- Hasn't had quite the chance to showcase his stuff the way the other guys might have, but Wilson works very hard to put in enough mileage to reach a high level in the 5000m and it has helped be one of the top independent league runners ever since he first stepped on the scene.
Jim Spisak- Spisak took out the pace through the mile in just about every race he was in, some of them being extremely stacked fields like the Carlisle invite. He ran his race and wasn't afraid to shoot for the moon and merely land amongst the stars.
I've given you some of mine now give me some of yours and hopefully we can put together a cool, fun poll.
Mark Dennin- The 2007 State Champion upset Chris Aldrich and Vince McNally by hammering the pace for all 5000m of the race at Hershey. He ended up winning by one of the largest margins in recent years and carried the wave of momentum into fantastic performances at the Mid States meet, the Northeast Regional (2nd), and the Footlocker Championships (13th I believe). That final race, Footlocker, he mixed it up with the likes of German Fernandez, Luke Puskedra, Mike Fout, Chris Derrick, Rob Finnerty, and Donn Cabral.
Ben Furcht- Ben may not have had the build of a typical distance runner, but he put in the mileage and dropped time like a rock. Around 19 minutes as a freshman and nearly sub 15 as a senior, Furcht dropped serious time moving up from in the 50s at states to 11th. He could have even been higher, but after being boxed for a full mile he spent too much in the second mile surging for the lead and went from 3rd to 11th in the final 400m. Furcht also made the trip to Footlocker's Championships.
Jason Weller- Weller ended up being slammed by Paul Springer at Lehigh just a week before states despite unleashing a 14:54. Although most people were picking against him, Weller ran a brutal pace at the state course and managed to drop Springer and win the state championship. It was the clutchest performance I had seen .... up until he topped it in the 3200m again against Springer.
Dustin Wilson- Hasn't had quite the chance to showcase his stuff the way the other guys might have, but Wilson works very hard to put in enough mileage to reach a high level in the 5000m and it has helped be one of the top independent league runners ever since he first stepped on the scene.
Jim Spisak- Spisak took out the pace through the mile in just about every race he was in, some of them being extremely stacked fields like the Carlisle invite. He ran his race and wasn't afraid to shoot for the moon and merely land amongst the stars.
I've given you some of mine now give me some of yours and hopefully we can put together a cool, fun poll.
Cross Country Season
I have always loved track more than XC. I am the opposite of Ben Furcht's penntrack account bio (xc>track. Like Ricky Bobby, I prefer going fast. If I had things my way my friends will tell you that I would rather run all my works and even some long runs on the track that out on the roads or the fields. I'd rather go head to head in a battle of raw 400 speed than toil away for 5,000m at Belmont Plateau. But I would never give up cross country season to have another season of track. Why? Well, coss country has an element that track can not ever hope to match. Cross country is truly a team sport, bringing runners together to win and lose as a united force. The courses are different from week to week so in most cases, times are out the window. You run for the six other guys going to battle with you every week to try to place as high as possible as a team. In my four years of track I never felt any real bond with my fellow sprinters and jumpers and throwers, but I'd take a bullet for the guys who toed the line with me in the fall.
Perhaps a tad over dramatic, I doubt I would take a bullet for Ian McGrath, but I think you can see my point.
In 2009, I had the privelge of being chosen as a captain for the Upper Dublin cross country team. What made this honor so special was the simple fact that I was elected not by my coach, but by my teammates, whose respect I appreciate beyond words. However, the task that faced myself and fellow captains Ryan Desch and Ian McGrath (he was close enough to a captain to be counted as one) was not easy. Our team had just lost the greatest runner in school history (Mike Palmisano), two of the gutsiest runners I have ever seen (Paul Reilly and Sam Stortz), and two rare talents in Matt Lorenzo and Pat Reilly. We returned only our 7th runner from the 2008 5th place state championship team. Needless to say we were on the sharp decline.
But this didn't mean we didn't set our sights on big goals. We wanted to prove to everyone that Upper Dublin was still a name to be reckoned with. However, we didn't do much in the early races to show it. We got slammed by North Penn, and rocked at Carlisle by pretty much everyone. But we were growing. Newbies Pete Schartel and Francis Ferruzzi were showcasing some talent, and a solid 1-5 pack gave us hope for a league title.
Every day in practice, we warmed up together. We joked around, made fun of everyone's little differences. No one was spared the sharp axe of comic taunting. I was a nerd, Francis was 6 years old, Desch was the dude, Ian was even more of the dude, Charlie was a devil worshipper, Mitch's hips didn't lie, and Todd was a mass murderer with multiple dead hookers in his closet. But in workouts we were all business. Everyone had something to bring to the table to help the cause. Some of us could take the pace in a difficult workout and grind it out up front to help everyone hit the pace. Others had speed to help kick it at the end. And still others just had experience and the wise advice that came with it. Overall, from June to October we toiled in blazing heat, pouring rain, and thunderstorms that scared even the likes of Tanzer. In that time we shared a rare combination of body fluids: blood, sweat, tears (although I think I was probably the only one who cried when none of my favorite runners accepted my friend request), and, in McGrath's case anyway, vomit out on the roads and trails of Upper Dublin.
So when our moment finally came to reach our goals and make a name for ourselves, naturally we had a story book ending? The little engine that could won the league championships and lived happily ever after? Unfortunately, no. With great love also comes great loss. At Lehigh that day Upper Dublin lost to Wissahickon by just 4 little points. In the final 200m straightaway our team lost approximately 10 points between our scoring five. It was heartbreaking, easily the saddest moment of my high school career. To feel like I had let down those other guys with whom I had sacrificed all that time with friends and family. With whom I had woken up at 8 am to go run brutal hill workouts. With whom I had shared so many laughs at the IHOP by the movie theatre after those same workouts. Needless to say it felt good to go back into the cornfields after the race and just break things.
But running has a way of surprising you. Nothing is guarenteed as we knew all too well from our League Championships. The next weekend at the District Championships we went out with one goal: to leave satisfied with our season. We still had a chance to show District One Upper Dublin was no joke. We were still fit and in the best shape of our lives. So we ran hard. During the first 200m I found myself leading a group of my teammates in the lead pack with guys like Brad Miles, Sam Bernitt and Tom Mallon. Nick Scarpello ran by with some type of war cry. It was a new day. We had a chance to do something. But then by the mile marker I heard a 5:15 mile split. Yuck. The muddy mess that was Lehigh had clearly slowed things a little. As I passed two miles I knew my time had to be slow. I could see no one else from the team. But this was it. This was the end of my season. I couldn't let those guys wearing the UD jersey down. So I ran like people were chasing me to the finish. The time wasn't a PR but I felt I had at least given it my all. I walked into a group of teammates with disappointed faces and legs covered in mud and sweat. I thought although our team didn't accomplish our goals, we still never gave in to the pain, and ran the best we could.
But nothing in running is ever guarenteed. It turns out everyone was historically slow that day. So slow in fact that the Upper Dublin team finished 10th at Districts. In my mind a very respectable finish for a team that seemingly returned no one running in the fastest district in the state. What made it even more impressive to me was that we finished that high without a single individual qualifying for states. We ran as a true pack, a true team, and that's what led us to victory.
I have a lot of great running memories like breaking 2 and running at the Penn Relays and indoor state championships, but none of those memories are as special to me as what we accomplished that day at Lehigh. The picture of the seven of us, mud splattered and fatigued standing arms around one another, sits on my dresser now and will sit on my college dresser for the second straight fall. It is a constant reminder of the bond of hard work, determination and friendship I shared with my entire 2009 team. Yes even you Andrew Zeng. That is what cross country has that makes it so special.
It may not seem like a big deal, but to us, it justified everything we had done for 4 years.
Good luck this season gentleman.
etrain
Perhaps a tad over dramatic, I doubt I would take a bullet for Ian McGrath, but I think you can see my point.
In 2009, I had the privelge of being chosen as a captain for the Upper Dublin cross country team. What made this honor so special was the simple fact that I was elected not by my coach, but by my teammates, whose respect I appreciate beyond words. However, the task that faced myself and fellow captains Ryan Desch and Ian McGrath (he was close enough to a captain to be counted as one) was not easy. Our team had just lost the greatest runner in school history (Mike Palmisano), two of the gutsiest runners I have ever seen (Paul Reilly and Sam Stortz), and two rare talents in Matt Lorenzo and Pat Reilly. We returned only our 7th runner from the 2008 5th place state championship team. Needless to say we were on the sharp decline.
But this didn't mean we didn't set our sights on big goals. We wanted to prove to everyone that Upper Dublin was still a name to be reckoned with. However, we didn't do much in the early races to show it. We got slammed by North Penn, and rocked at Carlisle by pretty much everyone. But we were growing. Newbies Pete Schartel and Francis Ferruzzi were showcasing some talent, and a solid 1-5 pack gave us hope for a league title.
Every day in practice, we warmed up together. We joked around, made fun of everyone's little differences. No one was spared the sharp axe of comic taunting. I was a nerd, Francis was 6 years old, Desch was the dude, Ian was even more of the dude, Charlie was a devil worshipper, Mitch's hips didn't lie, and Todd was a mass murderer with multiple dead hookers in his closet. But in workouts we were all business. Everyone had something to bring to the table to help the cause. Some of us could take the pace in a difficult workout and grind it out up front to help everyone hit the pace. Others had speed to help kick it at the end. And still others just had experience and the wise advice that came with it. Overall, from June to October we toiled in blazing heat, pouring rain, and thunderstorms that scared even the likes of Tanzer. In that time we shared a rare combination of body fluids: blood, sweat, tears (although I think I was probably the only one who cried when none of my favorite runners accepted my friend request), and, in McGrath's case anyway, vomit out on the roads and trails of Upper Dublin.
So when our moment finally came to reach our goals and make a name for ourselves, naturally we had a story book ending? The little engine that could won the league championships and lived happily ever after? Unfortunately, no. With great love also comes great loss. At Lehigh that day Upper Dublin lost to Wissahickon by just 4 little points. In the final 200m straightaway our team lost approximately 10 points between our scoring five. It was heartbreaking, easily the saddest moment of my high school career. To feel like I had let down those other guys with whom I had sacrificed all that time with friends and family. With whom I had woken up at 8 am to go run brutal hill workouts. With whom I had shared so many laughs at the IHOP by the movie theatre after those same workouts. Needless to say it felt good to go back into the cornfields after the race and just break things.
But running has a way of surprising you. Nothing is guarenteed as we knew all too well from our League Championships. The next weekend at the District Championships we went out with one goal: to leave satisfied with our season. We still had a chance to show District One Upper Dublin was no joke. We were still fit and in the best shape of our lives. So we ran hard. During the first 200m I found myself leading a group of my teammates in the lead pack with guys like Brad Miles, Sam Bernitt and Tom Mallon. Nick Scarpello ran by with some type of war cry. It was a new day. We had a chance to do something. But then by the mile marker I heard a 5:15 mile split. Yuck. The muddy mess that was Lehigh had clearly slowed things a little. As I passed two miles I knew my time had to be slow. I could see no one else from the team. But this was it. This was the end of my season. I couldn't let those guys wearing the UD jersey down. So I ran like people were chasing me to the finish. The time wasn't a PR but I felt I had at least given it my all. I walked into a group of teammates with disappointed faces and legs covered in mud and sweat. I thought although our team didn't accomplish our goals, we still never gave in to the pain, and ran the best we could.
But nothing in running is ever guarenteed. It turns out everyone was historically slow that day. So slow in fact that the Upper Dublin team finished 10th at Districts. In my mind a very respectable finish for a team that seemingly returned no one running in the fastest district in the state. What made it even more impressive to me was that we finished that high without a single individual qualifying for states. We ran as a true pack, a true team, and that's what led us to victory.
I have a lot of great running memories like breaking 2 and running at the Penn Relays and indoor state championships, but none of those memories are as special to me as what we accomplished that day at Lehigh. The picture of the seven of us, mud splattered and fatigued standing arms around one another, sits on my dresser now and will sit on my college dresser for the second straight fall. It is a constant reminder of the bond of hard work, determination and friendship I shared with my entire 2009 team. Yes even you Andrew Zeng. That is what cross country has that makes it so special.
It may not seem like a big deal, but to us, it justified everything we had done for 4 years.
Good luck this season gentleman.
etrain
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