Just throwing some stuff down for people to think about on the eve of perhaps the most anticipated match up in the entire history of my blog. Henderson and O'Hara will square off in a battle to see who (at this point, which obviously won't mean much in the end) is the better team. Between just these two groups we have a total of 9 guys who have surfaced on or around the rankings in the past 12 months. Ironically, guys like Ernie Pitone and Kevin James were non factors for O'Hara at this point last year. Pitone was 52nd in the varsity race in the 18 minute range and James wasn't even on the varsity squad. Christian Ostrowski and Matt Brown were O'Hara's 4-5 guys (if you are saying who? that is the reaction I was expecting). Those guys were in great shape in September, taking 13th and 14th right behind Pastore. Henderson wants to show off their depth against O'Hara on O'Hara's "home course". Barchet and Russell and there young squad mates may not have ever seen this course before. Belmont may be a good test to see how Henderson handles the hills. It should be very exciting to see who pulls out the gold. But there is more to this meet than simply O'Hara v. Henderson. North Penn, the defending state champions, and Council Rock North, perhaps the most consistently top tier program of the decade, will be in the race and neither has received any sort of hype in the past month. Both are flying under the radar and that is probably right where they prefer to be.
Last year's top finishers from the team title conversation:
3 Savage 16:09
9 Emery 16:31
10 Macauley 16:35
11 Wilson 16:40
12 Pastore 16:43
17 Zingarini 16:51
25 Grace 17:05
On the individual side, the hope is that Conner Quinn will duck out of the Division I race that Horsham has run every year in order to face off against the state's best like Savage, Russell, Barchet, Emery, Macauley and new comer to this meet Brendan Shearn. Shearn has made himself a schedule of the best is the business this fall. He is hoping to bounce back off his flu filled opener. Meanwhile Emery is two races deep and rounding into shape as a sleeper. Savage was 4th at states and has been very good at Belmont Plateau over the years. Quinn has something to prove as defending state champion and Russell and Barchet will look to silence some of their doubters from this blog. Macauley should be a force as well off his best track season and a convincing 17th place finish last XC state meet.
Looking a little further down the sleeper list, Alec Brand from CB East should be competing in one of the races at Belmont Plateau this weekend and may get his first shot at conference rival Conner Quinn in the Division One race. Brand started out his season with a pair of convincing performances against top tier District One talent. Francis Ferruzzi from Upper Dublin and Chris Berry from CB West are a pair of sub 9:30 3200m runners who may be on the verge of a break out race. This will be Ferruzzi's 5k debut. Ryan Hertzog, one of the best XC guys you've never heard of, was in this race before he came on late in the season at the District 3 Championships. He ran 16:55 in the Division One race. If he is back, he could be a sleeper to watch.
And last but certainly not least we get a flare for the independent league dramatics. Lyle Wistar, Sami Aziz, Ben Ritz and Sam Ritz all may be in the Division II race with the boys from Great Valley (Willig, Wolffe, etc). Great Valley wants to boost their team stock with a solid showing (assuming they are back) but the individuals in this race should grab the headlines. The Ritz brothers had a strong showing for 2nd and 3rd behind Willig last year and had killer track seasons, highlighted by Ben's low 9:20s and 4:12 performances. Sam is just a sophomore but ran 4:22 as a freshman last year. Wistar has great range and opened up the season a tough second behind Russell and just ahead of Rimkis in the Henderson v. GFS 3200m dual. Aziz, who has had his fair share of Ramadan struggles, is looking to bounce back and start progressing towards a independent league title down the road. GFS as a team may also surprise with their two front runners leading the way.
Get pumped.
PS shameless plug here, the etrain stock exchange is underway right now and after this weekend's action is over people will be making their first profits/losses ... if you want to get in facebook me or something like that and we will hook you up with a "stock profile" instead of the etrade baby its etrain ... baby
It's early, but Henderson might not show the depth we're expecting to see tomorrow. Russell looks great and it wouldn't be surprising if he's right there to win it. Barchet could be in the mix too. Rimkis and Chaborek are where they should be as is expected from solid seniors.
ReplyDeleteBut where is Hough? Injured? Collins and Stratman seem like they have a ways to go to get into top form. If Henderson has 5 - 7 has problems, O'hara has the edge on their home course.
Matt Brown was Kev James last year his name got messed up somehow.
ReplyDeleteI don't think an organization like the PIAA would allow for such a mistake.
Deletehttp://pa.milesplit.com/photos/files/2747687 Alright man, well then can you tell me who the runner all the way to the left in this picture is? Ostrowski(right) Pastoure(center) Kev James(left)
DeleteThese kind of mistakes happen all the time, I do believe it was Kevin James, its not like its a big time PIAA event.
DeleteChristian ostrowski was a senior last year and would have had a better year but he broke his back during wrestling season
ReplyDeleteDon't judge Henderson based off a two mile run. two miles and 5ks are a lot different. We'll see tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteStrictly from PA and going just off of times, I'd say...
1- Dan Savage
2- Mac Emery
3- Brendan Shearn
4- Conner Quinn
5- Tony Russell
6- Jack Macauley
7- Ben Ritz
8- Francis Ferruzzi
9- Sam Ritz
10- Earnie Pitone
Barchet, Pastore, James, Rimkis, Grace, Ross, and Zingarini all close.
-RTJ
1 - Russell
Delete2 - Macauley
3 - Emery
4 - Savage
5 - Shearn
6 - Emery
7 - Quinn
8 - Ferruzzi
9 - Barchet
10 - Zingarini
Henderson needs Collins, Stratman and/or Haugh to step it up.
I just really don't see how anyone can not have Dan Savage winning. Is it because he hasn't raced yet compared to Russell who has just run 2 mile races that have been way too hyped up, as RTJ said. Dan Savage got 4th at states last year, 4TH! That's very impressive and to add on to that this is his home course. I have Savage taking it rather easily.
DeleteUnder that thinking everyone should have Quinn winning today since he came in 1st at States.
DeleteRussell did go 16:20 in a dual meet a few days ago. He's got better track times than Savage and is an up and comer. Savage may have topped out last year. Maybe Savage does take it today on his home course but Russell should be a threat for District and State champ.
Savage, definitely. Can't pick against him. Also, as much as i love him, I'm not too high on Shearn here either. If he really had the flu, I wouldn't expect him to come back 100% this week. He's a machine, but the flu isn't something that a guy, even a guy like him, can overcome fully in such a short amount of time.
ReplyDeleteI believe Russell, Savage, Quinn, Shearn, Emery, and Macauley will break away from the field. I have Savage winning it, but not easily. It think 1-8 times will be around 15:40/16:05. The last hill deciding it all. Only reason Shearn isn't higher for me is because of the sickness. Conner Quinn... he does do well on hilly courses (cough state champ cough), but I don't think will start winning invitationals until early October. Can't wait to see these results and I hope everyone can get into the championship race!
ReplyDelete-RTJ
Shearn was pretty sick today you got that one right.
DeleteI don't know if any of you know this but I knew I had to mention it right when I got home. I was right at the line when Russell and Shearn finished and the official said Russell won. Tony turned around and told the official that he didn't win and that he saw Shearn pass him at the line. The official tried to tell Tony again but he wasn't having it, anyone else got mad respect for this kid?
DeleteI've been privileged enough to meet both of these guys and I literally am trying to decided who the nicer one is (I've decided that its not possible to figure this equation out). Being talented at what you do is great. However, being a gentleman and having class are the things that make you not just great, but outstanding and put you in that elite status. Mad props. On a similar note. I was at the top of a hill during the novice race and a kid who was in dead last coming up the hill was clearly struggling, upset, and limp-running. As the kid was running by his coach/teammate (not sure) told him to stop if it hurt him that much. The kid said no and refused until he was forced off. Now it is obviously not be the best idea to keep running when injured like that, but that shows heart and something that most kids that young don't have. I hope he recovers quickly (and also learns when to stop). I dont know who he was, but major props to the heart that kid has.
DeleteWell I guess this is the part where I throw my hands up in the air. I honestly words to describe Shearn's resiliency. This type of bounce back is unbelievable.
Deletetony russell won
ReplyDeleteHell of a race. Really good. Ohara wins in dominating fashion. 36 pts for the win. Henderson takes an easy 2nd. 3rd goes to CRN. Nice rebound for them. Hereford, Chaminade, Salesianum all in front of Great Valley who was 7th overall (PA4th). North Penn 8th overall (PA5th). LaSalle finishes in 9th. Smart has an off day however hes just returning from an injury so I'm not worried about him. Once they get Coyle back they're back up there. In the mean time Magee and Billota did what they could to get the team by. The most amazing part of the race is the dramatic finish between Shearn and Russell. Russell in lead and Shearn unleashes kick to basically tie at the line. It actually took me an hour or 2 to figure out who won. Shearn takes the win even though the results said Russell (i could be wrong on that. the results paper that is). Both finish at 15:41. Wow. Ross Wilson with an impressive 3rd in 16 flat. Connor Quinn takes the super easy win for D1. Nothing too special there.
ReplyDeleteSome things to note:
1) Kevin James, Pitone, Savage. In that order.
2) Emery in 9th to teammate Wilson's 3rd.
3) CRN, GV, NP, Pennsbury, and WCE as well, will put on an outstanding show at districts to see who takes that 2nd spot. It will be interesting which team doesnt make it to states since Henderson will most likely take D1 title.
Overall a great day and a fun place to be!
Very impressive win by O'hara. It looks like Kevin James absolutely destroyed his previous official Belmont PR.
DeleteThe Henderson hype didn't pan out. Russell is the real deal and Barchet is getting there. Where is Haugh, is he injured? Where was Rimkis? Did they only run 6 or did someone drop out? Bad day for Chaborek but that Henderson depth was supposed to take care of those things. They've got some work to do.
They barely won JV A too. They beat Ohara 57-58 and Ohara went 1-2 in the race. Matt Hayes and Jim Belfatto from Ohara ran really close to Pastore from the looks of the times.
DeleteHenderson didn't run Sam Haugh, there #2 runner last year. No clue why, also Bobby Rimkis finished 13th overall, third for henderson but was dq'd for something. Thats why the score was a landslide win, henderson would have had something like 60 points if rimkis didnt get dq'ed. Who knows with Haugh in.
ReplyDeleteHe got DQed for elbowing Pastore from Ohara in the face at the finish line and Pastore still won. The score would have been 37 72 if he wasn't DQed so it didn't have much of an impact.
DeleteHaugh is injured indefinitely atm
DeleteInadvertent elbow? or was there something going on with the two during the race?
DeleteRimkis is a tall dude, Pastore's face is at rimkis' elbow level. I have no clue what happened or if it was on purpose. but don't blow that up because he may not have meant to do it. And what's up with savage? why did he lose to 2 of his own guys?
DeleteUsually you won't get dq'd, particularly in a big event, unless there was perceived intent.
DeleteOhhhh they were throwing elbows?
Deletehttp://cdn.chud.com/8/8c/8c6ddd8f_this-is-gonna-be-good.gif
@JG, That is exactly what I was thinking. You have a narrow chute for the finishers to go threw and you're complaining about elbows. This is XC, you should see what happens when people aren't watching.
DeleteI was at the line, Pastore was closing on him fast and when Rimkis saw he was Ohara he tried all he could to beat him. There was a lot of contact and I guess an elbow got thrown in there. Rimkis is extremely tall but not that tall Pastore got to his shoulders so the elbow ha to have come up, if he even did it. It sounds a little suspicious that he could get DQed for something like that. Anyone think it was right or wrong to DQ him?
DeleteIf that's the way it went down then a DQ was uncalled for. Fortunately it didn't impact the outcome, other than Rimkis probably not getting a medal he earned.
DeleteAny runner could have been DQed for that, if Pasotre was taller then I would bet he would be DQed. In the end it doesn't really matter its just a invite not anything important
DeleteHe ran faster at briarwood than he did lastyear his teammates just had really good races
ReplyDeleteNot everyone has great races every time. Emery wasn't great today either. He was sick last year and almost ran the same time and Zingarini (CRN) was 16 seconds slower. Probably working hard and it wasn't their day. Overall a great race. Props to Shearn and Russell for a great battle and good sportsmanship. 2 seconds off of Dustin Wilsons time from last year is impressive, even if he was training to peak later and cruised at the end. Race was much faster than last year in terms of people under 17 (8 more) and the top 10 was a 40 second spread vs. 1 minute. Overall averages for the top teams were much better as well.
DeleteThis is very impressive from O'Hara, but remember how much further ahead they were from NP last year at this meet. (48 to 93), but the spread was impressive by O'Hara this year. Good opening meet for Ferruzzi as well.
In the other Divisions Berry didn't look great, but Brand had another really solid race, as did Quinn. Wish he would have been in the championship race.
NA was also very good, results aren't up yet, but seemed like they ran as a solid pack once again. It'll be interesting to see how the young guys hold up as the season goes on.
-- ForrestCRN
I still don't understand how Russell matched Shearn at this race. I just never expected him to be able to hang with Shearn in a 5k. Russell had the speed last year, now he has the ability to crush kids on hills. I mean, you would be lying if you told me you expected Shearn WITH Russell, emphasis on the Russell, to put a 20 second lead on the rest of the field to finish in the 4th and 5th fastest times ever on that course. The only thing that was putting shearn back in my prediction was his recent run in with the flu, but Russell just ran a PR on this super hilly course. I'm really surprised by that.
ReplyDeleteRussell looked real good in the early meets. He obviously worked hard over the summer. He's got a 4:18 mile and 9:30 two mile but XC is probably is niche. He just showed he's gotten to the next level and he's now clearly a threat to win any race.
DeleteAlso just another note, if Coyle had won (he didn't race) to give La Salle optimal points, they would have scored 165 points. Putting them far behind O'Hara and Henderson, and pretty far behind CRN.
ReplyDelete-- ForrestCRN
They were also missing their 5th man and Andrew Stone, who got 3rd at states in the 800 and who ran 16:28 at Belmont last year (which would have gotten 13th today), has been hurt and is just starting to run again from what I heard from the people I have talked to. So it looks like the are quite banged up and may not factor in the team race at states
DeleteI'm really surprised by today's meet. O'hara was totally dominant, and without their new guy Nick Smart running well. That was quite a statement they made today.
ReplyDeleteFor Henderson, if Haugh was there, if Rimkis doesn't get DQ'd, if Chaborek was on, if Collins was in top form......they still get their butt kicked.
I've got to hand it to Etrain, yet again! He didn't fall for the hype.
O'Hara was a history of coming out strong then fading and Henderson is known for late season runs, if you expected Henderson to beat O'Hara on their home course in September then you're insane. Yeah if Henderson won then something crazy would have happened, but O'Hara winning was and should be expected. This really is quite irrelevant to state predictions.
DeleteI did expect Henderson to win, (hopefully I'm not too insane). There had even been some rumblings of them making a run at national champs. Looking at p.r.'s in track & xc it was/is believable. After today, not even close.
DeleteO'hara was much better than I gave them credit for. Home course or not, they won big, as in it wasn't even close.
I still beleive Henderson will be there at States, but they're way back right now. The fact is, Collins, Stratman, Chaborek are far behind O'hara's 3-6. And without Haugh, somebody needs to really step up. So far, Knapp is running very well, but he's not what was expected from Haugh yet.
Keep in mind Henderson has been known to peak at the right time better than anyone and Haugh will most likely be back for the postseason so I would not read too much into September in order to predict what will happen come November.Even though O'hara gave one of the most impressive performances in recent memory of anyone IMO
Deleteohara's 4 and 2 guys absolutely killed it. Savage definitely under performed. Yeah he ran a faster time than last year but that's expected of everyone, but i'm super surprised with James and Pitone. On the Henderson Side, Russell just leaped up to top 3 at states in my list, possibly better? I can't wait to see him beat kennedy's 15 pr at Lehigh, It may even be a battle between the juniors for states by season's end. It's doubtful, but possible. Alex Knapp did quite well for a sophomore in his first XC season. Reiny definitely had a bad day, again, but the kid is going to be good. O'hara has the early season edge though.
Deletejust like to point out once again, that o'hara has literally no history of peaking at the wrong time, that's kind of an absurd rumor at this point ... o'hara had a great states race, 4 guys in the top 50, Savage and Bilotta and Pitone all had their best races at states ... the year before they pulled out a 3rd place finish few saw coming .. yeah they didn't come away with the win last year but they didn't choke, north penn rose to the occassion .... anyone who drops that line in favor of henderson is kidding themselves, last year at states henderson didn't have their best race so please stop insulting o'hara they know what they are doing ... tony russell is legit
DeleteMaybe people shouldn't hype up there own teams before meets and have the discussions non-biased. Cause hyping up your own team doesn't do any good..
ReplyDeleteCan you please explain what you mean when you say "O'Hara was a history of coming out strong then fading" .. a history?
ReplyDeleteO'Hara had a time split of 32 seconds...! On a tough course, too. They look very impressive. Dan Savage had a good race, he barely lost to his teammates and ran a better time than he did last year. Kevin James looks to be stepping up and through the weeks we will see how he progresses. The jump from freshman to sophomore year is huge, so I expect huge things from Kevin James.
ReplyDeleteHenderson had a good run. I wouldn't say Reiny choked, Idk why people are saying that. He placed 10th in a respectable field. Appears as though Rimkis seriously stepped it up. From the look of the times and past times, Henderson ran as expected really, which is great. The only surprise to me was Russell... holy crap. The surprise wasn't him being in second and almost winning... it was him running a 15:41 and barely losing to Shearn? That's insane. In my opinion, Russell wins districts easily with potentially a sub 15 time. I knew he would be good this year, but PRing this early in the season on a hard course? Wow.
-RTJ
I totally agree with predicting Russell potentiall goes sub 15 at districts. The way he is running right now is just incredible. He is the quintessence of hardwork(Not trying to sound like too much of a fan).
DeleteAlso, Etrain, what are your reactions to the order of PA team finishers after O'Hara and Henderson? Any surprises or disappointments?
Going sub 15 is extremely difficult, maybe as a senior he could get close, but even then I doubt it. Look at top finishers out of district 1 the past few years, and none of them got close. Campbell might have had a shot if he had went at the mile, but he held back until the alst 800 to make his move. Miles didn't do it as state champion. In 2008 Ben Furcht was 15:08, but back then the course was faster. If you look at times past 2008 everything gets slower, not sure if they made it a bit longer or what. Henderson great Chris Aldrich was 15:02. But if those types of runners aren't breaking 15, neither is Russell
DeleteMaking statements that are far high than the runners calibar are just ridiculous. Just like everyone saying that O'Hara and Henderson can be National or regional champs. CBA has 5 guys under 9:20 in the 2 mile, they're ridiculous.
These "expectations" aren't helping these high school runners. Tone down the language a bit. Yes, Tony Russell is a great runner and seems to be coming into his own. I wouldn't be surprised by 15:20's from the kid though.
--ForrestCRN
I doubt that Tony will run sub 15 at Lehigh. He has the ability, but that is probably not the priority. I'm sure he has more to prove at the State meet then the District meet. Aldrich ran 15:58 at Belmont as a Junior and 15:19 at Districts.
DeleteO'Hara looked great. They will give CBA a run at Regionals. They definitely looked like a top 10 team in the US.
O'Hara has moved up to #6 in the US on XC Nation.
DeleteYou guys are nuts, Tony is not going sub 15 at Lehigh. The only time that was even done was pre 2009 when the course was likely measured too short.
ReplyDeleteTony has a lot of talent but he may not even match that performance with Shearn. Even if he does, the conversion is maybe 20 seconds so he could go maybe sub 15:20.
Guys, I said POTENTIALLY, don't kill me. He's a talented runner and ran fast on Belmonts hilly course. To just show exactly how fast, he would have won the Viking Inv by 4 seconds... a course where PRs are dropped because of it's ease (and I've heard shortness, too). The kid is legit and definitely has the potential to do it.
ReplyDelete-RTJ