First off just want to straight up say that times to me mean very little in cross country. I honestly couldn't tell you the fastest marks this season or anyone's PRs on an XC course. Even year to year is tough to compare considering differences in conditions, race tactics, etc. I like at times in the sense of relative to one another at that's about it. I may be a numbers guy, but I'm all about who you beat and how you do it. Moving on ..... Team Rankings. Here we go.
1. O'Hara- Right now, clear cut top team in PA. Real solid top 6 and hopefully soon, top 7. Its still relatively early, but these guys are rolling.
2. Henderson- NA was good last weekend and Seel not finishing hurt them, but right now I just feel Henderon is a better squad. Russell and Barchet should both end up ahead of NA's top guy whoever it ends up being at season's end in my opinion. Rimkis should be solid and the other Henderson boys should hopefully round into shape. I'm not ready to hop off the bandwagon of a team with this much potential.
3. NA- clear cut top tier team. It's these three and then a drop off. NA has a killer pack, but still has to prove to me that they have the fire power up front. I feel that McGoey and Seel can take that next step and become front runners in the near future, but on that states course the young guys get eaten up. With a year of extra experience under their belt they will compete, but I think right now they are a year away. Still lots of time for that to change.
4. Pennsbury- Not a dynamic pick for the 4 spot, but a solid team with a legit state title contender in Harriman out front. Webb is looking good behind him and their pack is holding it together well. Nice bounceback race at foundation after the near loss to CRN.
5. Mt. Lebanon- I gotta apologize WPIAL, you guys haven't been getting enough love. Mt. Lebo didn't even have their best day and still came up with a solid finish at Foundation. They have a solid pack in their own right and if the pieces click they will be dangerous and hard for Pennsbury to hold off.
6. Lower Dauphin- Without Groh finishing, they still finished a respectable 5th in the race. There pack is way better than I expected behind their big guns out front. Nissley should be able to improve from his Foundation race as well.
7. West Chester East- They have a nice pack and some solid guys out front. I feel like they have a bunch of names that I don't know as well that can come on strong in the coming weeks. Kinda want to see these guys in a big meet, however. Paul Short could be interesting.
8. Cumberland Valley- I don't know if they are going to Paul Short or to Carlisle, but either way it will be a big chance to see where they are at relative to Lower Dauphin and Hershey.
9. Fox Chapel- So I'm not 100% why I completely left them off my list last week. They still haven't raced for a bit, but my increased respect for the WPIAL puts them back on the list.
10. Hershey- See Cumberland Valley above. I know that's lame but it is the only way I can go with them til Carlisle.
CRN just off the list this week.
etrain how do u think the ohara boys will fair against a team like CBA?
ReplyDeleteThey'll be shut out.
Deletenow i don't think they will be shut out, but o'hara has their hands full here, i'd be pretty surprised if it was at all close, but if it is anything close that is a great sign for them in the long run
DeleteNo Downingtown West?
ReplyDeleteChesmonts are strong this year. Henderson, WC East and probably Great Valley come in before West right now.
DeleteD-West also just lost to WCE by 21 points at Bulldog and WCE was running without their 5th man...at this point in time they cant be put in the conversation
DeleteUnionville just took 8th at Foundation. Their 2-5 have really picked it up. They're probably 4th in Chesmonts with D-West 5th.
DeleteDon't forget the Cherokee Challenge though where D-West destroyed Unionville 169 to 406. I'm thinking that Unionville will be well behind D-West.
DeleteThe Chesmont meet will be extremely competitive this year with 4 teams all having a good shot at making states (Henderson, WC East, DWest, and GV). I would not be surprised if all 4 of those teams make it to states.
DeletePenn Track ranked D-West 8th in the state this past week..
DeleteA very fair top 10 and impressive job with the rankings so far this year.
ReplyDeleteYou stayed off the Henderson hype and hung in there with O'hara as #1 from the get go. Obvious now, but not so much three weeks ago when no one knew James would make a jump, Hayes/Belfatto would be solid 5/6 men and Henderson's depth would not show up yet. O'Hara hasn't even had Smart in the mix yet.
I'm impressed with your early call on NA. They really seemed like they had little returning but once again, they're a powerhouse.
Lasalle was a definite preseason top 10, nobody can predict injuries. WCE is a suprise, a solid top 5 runners and deserving of the current ranking.
You continue to hang in there with CRN but are properly keeping them out or the top 10 until they show something.
I still don't think they make states this year but I've learned my lesson with you so I don't say it very confidently.
Carlisle will resolve any Henderson/NA questions. Short should prove that WCE is for real.
Thanks for the kind words haha this post made my day ... this weekend should definitely help clear up that gray area inbetween teams ... CV, Hershey, WCE, Great Valley and then Henderson, NA, Lower Dauphin, Mt. Lebanon ... We will see how for real O'Hara is as well ... If I was a betting man, I'd be hopping off the bandwagon of anyone who had to run the state course hard this past week but we shall see
DeleteLaSalle at Paul Short? They ran last year. Anyone know about this year?
DeleteI didn't see them on the entry list ... I think I'm gonna do post up some meet previews soon so that may help answer your questions
DeleteCV HERSHEY AT PAUL SHORT
ReplyDeleteI believe that WCE will have 2 runners in the high 15's, 3 runners in the mid to low 16's, and two in the 16:45ish range (no runners above 17 if they race how they have the potential to on Lehigh's flat/fast course).
ReplyDeleteGV will have one in the 15's, two 16 lows, two 16 mids,and two 17 lows. If their one junior isn't hurting (purposely leaving his name out) and is in the shape he could be in, they'll have a 16 mid. If not, don't mind that prediction.
DTW will have two 15 guys (I'm assuming Leidel had an off day and could have went faster than Steadman like he has all season long), two 16 mid to low guys, and then the next three will be 17 mid maybe low. I don't believe DTW has the depth to run make top five at districts this year (no offense), it's crazy deep. I believe it'll be WCH, WCE, PB, GV, and CRN. I do however believe that DTW will send 2-3 kids to States.
Again, I'd like to stress that this is if the conditions are perfect and the race is run smoothly. With that being said, I'm sure there will be off days, spiked runners, pushed runners, poor weather (supposed to rain) and/or sickness of some sort.
-RTJ
A bit ambitious with those time predictions. Last year only 2 guys broke 16:00 at Short, in good weather. WCE, GV and DTW really don't have anyone in the sub 16 class at this point in the season.
DeleteI believe he meant at Districts. At least that's what I thought. If he meant Paul Short then I agree. However his predictions seem about spot on for Districts.
DeleteHe referenced the weather forecast in that last paragraph so I thought he meant Short. Even at districts though, I'm not sure even one out of those teams gets under 16:00. Lehigh is fast but it's still tough to drop 20-30 seconds from the low-mid 16's.
DeleteLeidel will go sub 16, he's a solid runner
Deletenot much to debate about the ranking (pretty much on the spot imo). this weekend should help clear up a few thing with some of the teams. regarding D1, it will be WCH, PB. Then WCE, GV, CRN and NP will battle for the remaining 3 spots. that said, depth may play a big role for those 4 teams.
ReplyDeleteI am very ambitious with Lehigh's course. Now thinking, I was being a bit too ambitious, but we shall see. I'm going to say I think it's possible for this to happen, but more realistically districts will be the time. I do believe that this can happen Friday. We shall see. Ken Leidel had a bad race at Bulldog. He is clearly the number one runner, winning their 3200s by large amounts and breaking school records in the process. I know a 3200 isn't a 5k, but he is their top guy.
ReplyDelete-RTJ