It's teams that have run a 4x8 and that we suspect will run the 4x8 at the states ... the DMR video, which should be up relatively soon, we are working on the upload, includes the other teams that we suspect will run the DMR ... obviously its just our opinion so feel free to share yours .... also we need a name for the show, let us know what u got cuz all we got right now is train tracks
The show looks great, I think you did a good job of sifting through all the teams and picking out the strong ones. Especially went its so crowded in the 8:13-8:20 range.
I would bet teams like Henderson and Ohara who qualify people like Russell, Barchet, or Savage end u running a 4x800 instead of DMR at states. The 4x800 isn't as strong and those two teams will have a better shot at medalling in that relay.
very fair point, unfortunately that would make things a bit less fun i feel, so we assumed everyone was running their best relay in the event they had the best chance to place well in given their legs and their races thus far this season
Don't worry, that was probably Don Rich feeling jelly that someone was able to put up a decent video without awkward 15 second pauses where they try to decide who's turn it is to talk. Good job boys
Not bad! Good analysis and a lot more detail than you would you usually get in one post. Just something I noticed, you guys use your hands a lot to try to describe things and in the end it just looks awkward. Maybe sitting down would just be easier.
Colin Myer wasn't in Penncrest's 4x800? That makes them even more impressive. Who was in it?
My question is this: What will Henderson do?
You should try and mention that in your next show. If they are running a hot DMR... how will that affect doubling? Most importantly Reiny Barchet. He should be a high medalist in the 3k... but now he has to give that up to run the DMR... but does Russell have to give up the open mile? Will Russell get a chance to earn two medals while Reiny only gets one? That seems unfair. I can't wait to see how that goes down. Maybe Reiny runs the mile... but that would be counter productive. He wouldn't medal (no offense...) and would just tire himself out for the 1200 double.
As for O'Hara... the XC boys ARE O'Hara distance now. They would make up 3 of the 4 spots on that 4x800. I assume Jimmy Boyle (1:59 open last year) would have the final spot. If James really did hit around 2:02-4 (Haven's leg was 2:03 and was in front of James the whole time so I'm not sure what his exact split was... so I gave him a range), I'd expect that 4x800 to be James, Savage, Belfatto, and Boyle. However, they will not run a hot 4x800, the 3k is entirely too close. I expect Savage, James, and Pastore to be the three running in it which leaves Pitone and Belfatto. Pitone will most likely make the mile and Belfatto hasn't run yet this season. I would say 3k since he just broke the 3200 record, but I think he will go for the 800 or mile for indoors.
-RTJ
P.S.- Great show fellas! I'm glad you sniped Springfield (Delco)!
Russell is undoubtedly running the Mile and 3k at states, he isn't making it much of a mystery. Plus, he already talked about it on twitter. And to Reiny only getting a chance to get one medal being "unfair", I dont really think it's unfair at all. It's not like Russell has a chance to only earn 2 medals, his time's put him as the undisputed favorite to win both the mile and the 3k until someone comes within 3 or 4 seconds of him in either event during the season. There is a 99% chance that they wont run the DMR at states, Kevin Kelly is too smart to waist Reiny in a 1200 when he could place 2nd to Russell in the 3k. Reiny may run the mile, but I also agree that he won't medal. Right now everything points to Russell in the Mile and 3k and Barchet in just the 3k. Henderson is probably doing the 4x800, their chance is better in that even without Chaboreck
and to add on a bit, Russell is the more talented runner of the two and his range far exceeds Reiny's, and any other distance, actually, any other runner in general in the state (distance runners have a much wider range than sprinters by default so i'm just throwing them in too). No one else besides Russell has come close to showing the ability to be the XC state champion, 3k state champion and the mile state champion (indoors and outdoors) all in the same year. This isn't saying HE WILL win both events, though I and many others believe he is the favorite for both, but it's saying that he's the only one who could do that. Why toss reiny in an event he couldn't medal in, that would make it more unfair because his chances in the 3k would be worse because of it.
^^ and RJJL has been on point all year, he probably won the fantasy draft that etrain did too when he picked Russell to win it.
Saying Russell is the undisputed favorite is wrong, the indoor state 3k is entirely tactical and it's been shown that Russell has no kick, I say he goes 3rd in mile 4th in 3k.
In the 3k I think it is hard to argue that Russell is the favorite. If you poll all the guys on here I'd bet 90% would say Russell is the favorite (spoiler alert, Russell is our #1 in the 3k) ... in the mile I think there is much more room for debate even though that room is slowly shrinking
in other news, we are trying to come up with ways to improve the show, one of the ways we were thinking was maybe doing some skype interviews with runners for the next show or two to give people insight into one goes on in the mind of the readers, thoughts? any other good ideas?
if anyone is willing to interview or there is anyone you want us to interview let us know either on here or on facebook in a PM or something and we will do our best to make it happen
Given the 3-4 hours between the mile and the 3000, I could see Russell doubling up (or doubling the mile and the DMR). Since there is less than one hour between the 3000 and the DMR, I don't see him doing that double
How is Russell making it obvious that he is running the mile/3k double? If it's something he said on Twitter maybe, but just by his racing he isn't making it obvious.
Keep in mind that 4:14.9 was a split. Splits are faster than opens. At this point in the season he is the top miler though... and 3k. Henderson is running the DMR again though before the season is over... Idk why they would do that if they aren't planning on running it at States. Why not just run a 4x8?
DMR and individual events coming soon
ReplyDeleteJust to confirm, is this rankings just of teams who've already ran 4x8?
ReplyDeleteIt's teams that have run a 4x8 and that we suspect will run the 4x8 at the states ... the DMR video, which should be up relatively soon, we are working on the upload, includes the other teams that we suspect will run the DMR ... obviously its just our opinion so feel free to share yours .... also we need a name for the show, let us know what u got cuz all we got right now is train tracks
DeleteThe show looks great, I think you did a good job of sifting through all the teams and picking out the strong ones. Especially went its so crowded in the 8:13-8:20 range.
DeletePenncrest ran 4 Sophomores at Kevin Dare. Coach Brown has it going again.
ReplyDeleteI would bet teams like Henderson and Ohara who qualify people like Russell, Barchet, or Savage end u running a 4x800 instead of DMR at states. The 4x800 isn't as strong and those two teams will have a better shot at medalling in that relay.
ReplyDeletevery fair point, unfortunately that would make things a bit less fun i feel, so we assumed everyone was running their best relay in the event they had the best chance to place well in given their legs and their races thus far this season
DeleteBesides belfatto none of Oharas Xc guys are gunna even be on their 4x8 Im thinking cause they have some solid legs
Deleteetrainstation
ReplyDeleteterrible train
ReplyDelete:(
Delete--ForrestCRN
Don't worry, that was probably Don Rich feeling jelly that someone was able to put up a decent video without awkward 15 second pauses where they try to decide who's turn it is to talk. Good job boys
DeleteNot bad! Good analysis and a lot more detail than you would you usually get in one post. Just something I noticed, you guys use your hands a lot to try to describe things and in the end it just looks awkward. Maybe sitting down would just be easier.
ReplyDeleteColin Myer wasn't in Penncrest's 4x800? That makes them even more impressive. Who was in it?
ReplyDeleteMy question is this: What will Henderson do?
You should try and mention that in your next show. If they are running a hot DMR... how will that affect doubling? Most importantly Reiny Barchet. He should be a high medalist in the 3k... but now he has to give that up to run the DMR... but does Russell have to give up the open mile? Will Russell get a chance to earn two medals while Reiny only gets one? That seems unfair. I can't wait to see how that goes down. Maybe Reiny runs the mile... but that would be counter productive. He wouldn't medal (no offense...) and would just tire himself out for the 1200 double.
As for O'Hara... the XC boys ARE O'Hara distance now. They would make up 3 of the 4 spots on that 4x800. I assume Jimmy Boyle (1:59 open last year) would have the final spot. If James really did hit around 2:02-4 (Haven's leg was 2:03 and was in front of James the whole time so I'm not sure what his exact split was... so I gave him a range), I'd expect that 4x800 to be James, Savage, Belfatto, and Boyle. However, they will not run a hot 4x800, the 3k is entirely too close. I expect Savage, James, and Pastore to be the three running in it which leaves Pitone and Belfatto. Pitone will most likely make the mile and Belfatto hasn't run yet this season. I would say 3k since he just broke the 3200 record, but I think he will go for the 800 or mile for indoors.
-RTJ
P.S.- Great show fellas! I'm glad you sniped Springfield (Delco)!
Get RJJL to answer RTJ questions about what WCH will do. He seees to get them right every time, he might actually be the WCH coach.
DeleteRussell is undoubtedly running the Mile and 3k at states, he isn't making it much of a mystery. Plus, he already talked about it on twitter. And to Reiny only getting a chance to get one medal being "unfair", I dont really think it's unfair at all. It's not like Russell has a chance to only earn 2 medals, his time's put him as the undisputed favorite to win both the mile and the 3k until someone comes within 3 or 4 seconds of him in either event during the season. There is a 99% chance that they wont run the DMR at states, Kevin Kelly is too smart to waist Reiny in a 1200 when he could place 2nd to Russell in the 3k. Reiny may run the mile, but I also agree that he won't medal. Right now everything points to Russell in the Mile and 3k and Barchet in just the 3k. Henderson is probably doing the 4x800, their chance is better in that even without Chaboreck
Deleteand to add on a bit, Russell is the more talented runner of the two and his range far exceeds Reiny's, and any other distance, actually, any other runner in general in the state (distance runners have a much wider range than sprinters by default so i'm just throwing them in too). No one else besides Russell has come close to showing the ability to be the XC state champion, 3k state champion and the mile state champion (indoors and outdoors) all in the same year. This isn't saying HE WILL win both events, though I and many others believe he is the favorite for both, but it's saying that he's the only one who could do that. Why toss reiny in an event he couldn't medal in, that would make it more unfair because his chances in the 3k would be worse because of it.
Delete^^ and RJJL has been on point all year, he probably won the fantasy draft that etrain did too when he picked Russell to win it.
penncrest had 4 sophomores run in the 4x800 at kevin dare
DeleteSaying Russell is the undisputed favorite is wrong, the indoor state 3k is entirely tactical and it's been shown that Russell has no kick, I say he goes 3rd in mile 4th in 3k.
DeleteIn the 3k I think it is hard to argue that Russell is the favorite. If you poll all the guys on here I'd bet 90% would say Russell is the favorite (spoiler alert, Russell is our #1 in the 3k) ... in the mile I think there is much more room for debate even though that room is slowly shrinking
Deletein other news, we are trying to come up with ways to improve the show, one of the ways we were thinking was maybe doing some skype interviews with runners for the next show or two to give people insight into one goes on in the mind of the readers, thoughts? any other good ideas?
if anyone is willing to interview or there is anyone you want us to interview let us know either on here or on facebook in a PM or something and we will do our best to make it happen
Given the 3-4 hours between the mile and the 3000, I could see Russell doubling up (or doubling the mile and the DMR). Since there is less than one hour between the 3000 and the DMR, I don't see him doing that double
DeleteInterviewing would actually be pretty sick
DeleteIt's one thing to be the favorite but the "undisputed favorite" it totally different. He's good but he's definitely beatable especially on a double.
DeleteHow is Russell making it obvious that he is running the mile/3k double? If it's something he said on Twitter maybe, but just by his racing he isn't making it obvious.
ReplyDeleteKeep in mind that 4:14.9 was a split. Splits are faster than opens. At this point in the season he is the top miler though... and 3k. Henderson is running the DMR again though before the season is over... Idk why they would do that if they aren't planning on running it at States. Why not just run a 4x8?
-RTJ