The DMR: What a Hot Mess

Now look, calling a high school track even a hot mess seems like a bit of an over exaggeration at this point to the average reader out there. But goodness, it's the only way I can think to define it. Trying to deduce who is going to run what is harder than trying to guess what order North Allegheny's top 5 were going to finish in during a given XC meet. Probably harder even than trying to out kick Drew Magaha while your carrying Haneef Hardy on your back. But I digress.

A quick scan of the DMR list shows that we have 12 teams who have already hit the SQS and two more that are well under the 11 minute mark. Meanwhile, Cumberland Valley and State College are gearing up to drop a sick DMR mark in a matter of weeks and the TSTCA meets have been more inconsistent than me during this past cross country season. Sorry enough with the comparisons. Usually by this time of year we are wondering if the state is going to have to add 4 or 6 teams to make the field a reasonable size. Couple that with the fact that 4x8 has just 3 teams that have run sub 8:10 in the 4x8 over the course of the entire year. And two of those three teams were wearing Cardinal O'Hara jerseys. In the past two weeks the teams that I ranked as top 2 in the state in the 4x8 have both run crazy fast DMRs with potential to even drop more time. Yikes.

So what does this mean going forward? Which teams will ultimately end up picking this DMR race while others opt for the 4x8? Remember last year when we had a stacked DMR race in the making? Well everyone bolted as an overcorrection to go try and take down the 4x8 state title. And ultimately all those teams came up short of the big dogs of the 4x8 Pennridge and Penncrest. Hopefully, the same thing doesn't happen this year, but I can't help but imagine it will.

We will get a good luck at what LaSalle is thinking after this weekend coming up. They get to race PA #1 Pennsbury at the Armory in the 4x8. Pennsbury too may be tempted to jump ship to the 4x8 so this will be an interesting moment for them.

Now it's still early, but I guess we should talk logistics  Who do I think will end up on the starting line for states in the DMR?

I'll work from the bottom up. Let's look first at teams like Great Valley and West Chester East. All the pieces are there for those teams to make a DMR push. Both are much more DMR built than 4x8 built in my mind and at MoC I expect these two teams to drop into the range it takes to make states and punch their ticket. Count those two squads in. Next we have UD and CBE who just punched their tickets last night. Both of these teams have been DMR all the way and I don't expect things to change now. Count those boys in as well.

Then things get a tad more interesting. We move the GFS and O'Hara boys next. I expect to see GFS line up a DMR at the state championships, they have for the past forever anyway. I don't remember the last time a state championship DMR did not feature the boys from GFS. However, I don't anticipate this relay to make a ton of noise. I'm banking on Aziz and Wistar in the 3k which may toss both of them out of the DMR. If they do run both, they are going to have some work to do on real tired legs. As for O'Hara, the 4x8 seems to be all but confirmed for their future. With the field as weak as it as and they guys they have who can qualify for the 3k, the DMR just seems unlikely. They probably will stack a 4xMile and DMR at Nationals a couple weeks after and we should see some dirty marks there, but I don't expect it at states.

Strath Haven is an interesting squad with Butera and Huemmler both mile qualifiers who might get the ok to go for the double (Huemmler definitely, Butera ?). That makes their DMR a bit more shaky. All that being said, I think that they are much better off in the DMR than the 4x8 (which I believe they have yet to qualify for but likely will). Even on the double I'd be afraid of Huemmler on the anchor.

Bonner, CRN and DTWest are the next few teams here to consider. Bonner I think is a definite to compete for the DMR. The only question is whether they will be a top DMR squad or not and that depends on Will McDermott and his decision to double in the 3k or not. The 3k DMR is all but impossible and leaves Bonner somewhat out of it if he goes for it. But either way I expect them to toe the line. CRN has usually been a DMR team as well. The problem will stem from guys like Ross Wilson who is likely to qualify in the 3k any day now. He takes out a valuable piece of their DMR. But they have no shot at competing in the 4x8 in my opinion so I expect CRN to be back on the line for the DMR once more. DTWest is a bit trickier. They definitely have the pieces to run a nice 4x8 for the second straight year. Leidal is going to compete in the open mile it seems and a 4x8 double may be easier on him, especially considering the field they are racing against. They haven't qualified yet, but my gut says DTWest will be a 4x8 squad at states. No way to know for sure, but they can compete for a top 5 spot in either race.

That gives us in the DMR now:
WCEast
Great Valley
GFS
UD
CBE
Strath Haven
CRN
Bonner

8 teams thus far. And now we come to the big dogs. LaSalle, Pennsbury, Henderson, and Bensalem. I'll start by throwing this out there: I'd be stunned to see Henderson stack their relay, whatever they choose. That being said, I think they opt for the DMR. It's just the kind of team they have been over the years. The only way I can see them choosing 4x8 is if they are making a legit push for a team title and Chaborek can lead this team to some points.

Which leaves LaSalle, Pennsbury and Bensalem. Goodness. This is tricky because my gut right now says everybody is going 4x8. Bensalem has pushed the DMR this week, but I feel like they are just waiting to drop a big bomb on the rest of the state with their 4x8 and 4x4 teams. Both those squads are really dangerous. But heck, maybe I am misreading these guys. They ran a great DMR and that kind of race would not be hard to duplicate for them at all. Sacrifices a bit of their 4x4 wheels but they could come out with state gold in the DM. All the same I'm calling 4x8 for them in the end. Just my gut again.

Then you have Pennsbury. Great team for the DMR with all the different pieces they can sub in, but they ran 8 flat in the 4x8 which is easily PA #1. I think they go to the armory this weekend and if they beat LaSalle it's 4x8 for sure. If they get rocked a little bit than they end up in the DMR. Personally, I see Pennsbury's pieces being better suited for a solid DMR run and that's where I believe they end up.

Lastly, there is LaSalle. The big dogs of the DMR and one of PA's two bright hopes for a Penn Relays DMR title once again. They have two killer 12 and mile legs and are built for a great DMR. That being said, I think this team ends up in the 4x8 once again. Coyle and Stone have big individual event goals and Billotta and Magee proved they won't be weak links on a 4x8 relay which may be under 7:50 this weekend. I expect LaSalle in the 4x8 competing for state gold.

This now gives us the following 10 teams:
WCEast
Great Valley
GFS
UD
CBE
Strath Haven
CRN
Bonner
Henderson
Pennsbury

To finish off my projected field I think State College and Kiski we hit the SQS and choose to run the DMR at states as well. CV I expect to see lined up in the 4x8.

Should be fun to see who goes where and who jumps up and surprises to grab a ticket to states. Certainly, its going to be a hot mess.

-train