Brett Favre

This year was an interesting year for me on the whole. When the State Championships ended and the graduation season begins, the last of those who I ran with high school will have moved on. Everyone who is left was a freshman when I was a freshman ... in college. Maybe that was my first signal that it was time to hang it up.

The great thing about following this sport is someone new comes along every year with talent and potential to claim a state title. This year everyone from Tony Russell to Max Norris to Ethan Martin played that role. Next year's class of runners may be the best the state has ever seen, but if I wait around long enough someone new will always come along that is exciting and fun to watch that makes you want to stick around.

I've always loved blogging about this. Ever since I first took my dad's penntrack account and started posting, I knew that this was something I was passionate about. I never dreamed that a few posts on penntrack would grow into a blog that has captured over 400,000 views and won me a surprising amount of recognition and friendships. This blog has never been about money, it was never a job to me, it was fun, it was what I wanted to do and where I felt like I belonged. 

This blog has always been about more than me. I love when people say that I motivated them to be better and to prove me wrong, but that wasn't me, that was the competitiveness and determination of the athlete. My posts and my analysis are the things people can easily notice on the blog, but what you have to click and search for are the comments. The comments have always made this blog what it is. My words are more of a prompt to stir up the pot of the commentators out there. You all have made this blog special and powerful and I hope that when it is gone, you will continue to find ways to keep the discussion going and promote this sport that I have grown up with.

I haven't really seen to many HS XC or track races in person in the past 3 years since going to Muhlenberg College. It was very ironic to me that my blog didn't really get popular until I had graduated and been to school. I guess that's how artists feel when their work only becomes popular after their death. I guess that was probably a bit dramatic, but ...

It would be easy to keep going, put down the occasional post, slowly lose touch with who is out there and who is a strong runner and slowly lose quality in my posts and predictions and analysis. But I don't want to go out like that. I don't want to hang around past my prime or past my time. I don't want to be that awkwardly to old creepy guy at the meets.

If this was a job or something I was hired to do I would maybe feel differently about this all, but I think as simply a hobby, the time has come to stop being a blogger and an analyst for this level of sport.

I would love to go on and stay in the sport one day as either a coach or a writer for penntrack or dyestat or some other site, that would be a great job. But more likely I will end up as just another past runner or forum poster. I'm a math and economics double major at school. I'm doing work at Columbia this summer in Biostatistics and may go to graduate school for that. I also have taken the first actuarial exam and am considering entering that profession. 

It's odd to think that one of those careers is likely where I will be five years from now. Completely unconnected to this blog and to the high school track scene. The etrain name will likely disappear into obscurity and I'll just be back to Jarrett Felix.

But running will never leave my life. I will always be a runner, have a runner's personality, determination and work ethic. The girl I want to marry some day in the future is a runner and I would love for our children to pick up the sport because I feel it is a fantastic sport (no pressure though). My best friends are from running and my life would be so dramatically different if I had never stumbled upon penntrackxc for the first time so many years ago.

And I will likely never completely stop following the high school scene. I'll always be flipping around the results, maybe commenting somewhere anonymously or something like that. I could never stay away from this sport forever, any one who knows me at all knows that.

And maybe for that reason, you could see me again one day blogging. Maybe I won't be able to stay away. Maybe I will be another Brett Favre.

But for now, I am officially retiring from posting on this blog. It has been an amazing ride and I thank you all so much for what you have given me. This has been one of the coolest experiences of my life and I will never forget it.

Thank you so much. 

-train

And now etrain is gone and Jarrett Felix returns.

Live Updates 5/25

AA Boys- Galassi nips Shearn in the last 50m 9:12 midto 9:13 low

  1   187 Galassi, Ric  12 Holy Cross 02     9:12.48 SQS               10   
  2   372 Shearn, Bren  12 No Schuykill 11   9:13.33 SQS                8   
  3   412 Kemp, Barret  12 Oswayo Vly 09     9:19.08 SQS                6   
  4   140 Jones, Luke   12 Elk Lake 02       9:21.85 SQS                5   
  5   539 Molino, Grif  10 S Williamsprt 04  9:26.16 SQS                4   
  6   382 Williams, Sa  12 NE Bradford 04    9:27.49 SQS                3   
  7   482 Wagner, Greg  12 Riverview 07      9:35.01 SQS                2   
  8   157 Roberts, Wes  12 Freedom Area 07   9:35.17 SQS                1   

AAA Boys- Real slow first mile (4:44/45), but a pack of 11 guys or so. Wilson took the lead at 1000m to go and pushed it (5:55 through 2k). Ethan Martin closed in 60.0 (28 last 200) for the win in 9:10.74, Wilson took second, edging out Todaro (9:11 high).

  1   227 Martin, Etha  11 Fox Chapel 07     9:10.74 SQS               10  
  2   155 Wilson, Ross  11 CR North 01       9:11.97 SQS                8 
  3   738 Todaro, Vinn  12 Big Spring 03     9:12.02 SQS                6
  4   226 Martin, Coli  11 Fox Chapel 07     9:16.12 SQS                5   
  5    63 James, Kevin  10 Crdnl O'Hara 12   9:17.01 SQS                4   
  6   548 Webb, Sam     10 Pennsbury 01      9:19.75 SQS                3   
  7   334 Kennedy, Bre  11 Kiski Area 07     9:20.16 SQS                2   
  8   278 Norris, Max   12 Harriton 01       9:20.57 SQS                1 

A-C dominated boys AA, ran away with it and made it look easy.

Anchor Shawn Wolfe was able to take it fairly easy running 55/2:00 as he is in the open 800 later in the day. Not sure if Curt Jewett ran in the 4x8 after getting DQ'd in the 1600 yesterday.

  1 Annville-Cleona 03      8:03.25 SQS               10   
  2 Wyomissing 03           8:11.91 SQS                8   
  3 Trinity 03              8:12.33 SQS                6   
  4 Lakeview 10             8:12.88 SQS                5   
  5 Northeast Bradford 04   8:15.10 SQS                4   
  6 Northern Potter 09      8:15.32 SQS                3   
  7 Masterman 12            8:16.06                    2   
  8 Southern Columbia Area 04     8:16.39                    1   

Bensalem gets so much needed points for that team title taking first in the 4x800 with a time of 7:47.
Rivera- 1:57.6, French - 2:02.0, Cox-Finn 1:56.8, Francis 1:51.8

Cumberland Valley takes Second, official results up soon. John Lewis had a huge second leg for Cheltenham though, split about 1:54.

Also really like the big leg by Coburn on the third leg, he ran really well to get his squad back in it. Francis just had one heck of a motor in that wind. Nice coaching move by DT East to move Caldwell to the third leg, I really like that decision and I think it paid off. Times are not going to be fast today, wind is a big factor.
Also big anchor by Red Lion's Gatchell to get them into 5th place.

  1 Bensalem 01                  7:47.82#SQS               10   
  2 Cumberland Valley 03         7:53.51 SQS                8   
  3 Pennsbury 01                 7:54.56 SQS                6   
  4 Downingtown East 01          7:58.63 SQS                5   
  5 Red Lion 03                  7:59.40 SQS                4   
  6 Cheltenham 01                7:59.44 SQS                3   
  7 State College Area 06        7:59.64 SQS                2   
  8 Carlisle 03                  8:01.07 SQS                1   

Smathers easily wins the 1600m in 4:22 leading the whole way. Tom Seykora kicks away from the chase back for second. An amazing triple for Sam Williams who also ran in the 4x8 after the 3200. Major props for Williams' run he made a great team sacrifice in that 4x8 instead of purely pursuing individual goals. Seykora was great, he has had a great last two weeks. Smathers just dominated the field, it was too easy for him. Hill fell I believe they said which may have hurt his performance.

  1   364 Smathers, Ry  12 North East 10     4:22.69 SQS               10   
  2   129 Seykora, Tom  12 Devon Prep 01     4:29.05 SQS                8   
  3   382 Williams, Sa  12 NE Bradford 04    4:30.11 SQS                6   
  4   256 Walker, Sean  12 Lewisburg 04      4:30.29 SQS                5   
  5   297 Curtin, Seba  10 Mrcyhrst Prep 10  4:32.52                    4   
  6   372 Shearn, Bren  12 No Schuykill 11   4:34.53                    3   
  7   624 Hill, Bobby   12 Wellsboro 04      4:35.64                    2   
  8   117 Vella, Tyler  11 Danville Area 04  4:35.96                    1   

Schettler took it out hard in about 60.5 and the pack went through in 62. They caught him and Russell took the lead to try and push it but the wind hurt the pace a lot. They even split about 2:08/2:08. Russell ran gutsy, if the wind wasn't so bad he may have been able to win, but at 200 to go the kickers took over. Jaskowak is so clutch. Thats awesome for him to pull out this performance and I'm really happy for him. How about this for a fact: Kevin Moy is the top returner in the field. What a season for him and a great kick. Lastly, it was a fantastic race between Huemmler and Coyle and I'm thrilled we got to see it. Huemmler put on a big move at 200m and Coyle fought to stay around and then almost came back in the last 50 but Huemmler had just enough left to seal it at the end. Thrilling race, perhaps a little tentative from Coyle as he thought about taking the lead earlier but waited and let Huemmler jump him a bit. Both are great runners and ended great careers with this race.

  1   638 Huemmler, Ja  12 Strath Haven 01    4:16.25 SQS               10   
  2   343 Coyle, Tom    12 La Salle 12        4:16.62 SQS                8   
  3   265 Jaskowak, Da  12 Grove City 10      4:19.53 SQS                6   
  4   156 Zingarini, J  12 CR North 01        4:19.55 SQS                5   
  5   689 Moy, Kevin    11 WC Henderson 01    4:20.20 SQS                4   
  6   690 Russell, Ton  11 WC Henderson 01    4:20.59 SQS                3   
  7   385 Watro, Curti  12 Methacton 01       4:21.02 SQS                2   
  8   517 Schettler, H  12 Penn Manor 03      4:24.88                    1  

After being DQ'd in the 1600m pre-lims Curt Jewett was out for blood as he made a big move with 250 to go to take over the lead from Dan Alexander. He finished strong to get his first state title. A big kick at the end gave Smathers a silver to go along with his Gold in the 1600m earlier in the day.

  1   379 Jewett, Curt  12 NE Bradford 04      1:58.25 SQS               10   
  2   364 Smathers, Ry  12 North East 10       1:59.06 SQS                8   
  3   304 Grim, Lucas   12 Mohawk Area 07      1:59.84                    6   
  4   265 Alexander, D  12 Lower Morelnd 01    2:00.04                    5   
  5   511 Wilt, Jordan  12 Shade 05            2:00.44                    4   
  6   660 Miller, Andr  11 Wyomissing 03       2:00.83                    3   
  7    66 Goodson, Jon  11 Boiling Sprgs 03    2:01.12                    2   
  8    84 Brinkley, An  12 Catasauqua 11       2:01.55                    1   

800m was a fantastic race in AAA. Kunzweiler was leading until 120m left and from the video it seemed as though he was really close to the rail and attempted to step towards the middle of lane one with his left foot and he clipped the back of his heel with his right foot, since there was no space on the ouside (Rivera was right there). Brehm jumped over him and stormed home for the victory. Really great racing by all 3 and I don't believe a foul occured. Real shame for Kunzweiler though, who had an unbelievable career. Great doubles by Coburn and Caldwell off the 4x8 3rd legs for there teams to medal.

  1    74 Brehm, Zach   10 Carlisle 03          1:54.40 SQS               10   
  2    33 Rivera, Brad  12 Bensalem 01          1:55.73 SQS                8   
  3   535 Logue, Josep  10 Pennridge 01         1:56.37 SQS                6   
  4   349 Stone, Andre  12 La Salle 12          1:57.31 SQS                5   
  5   160 Coburn, Alex  12 Cumberlnd Vly 03     1:58.61                    4   
  6   662 Nole, Alex    12 Tunkhannock 02       1:59.08                    3   
  7   178 Caldwell, Bi  11 D-Town East 01       1:59.38                    2   
  8   515 Wilhoite, Dy  11 Penn Hills 07        2:00.16                    1   

Point update for the Team Title

Garnet Valley: 35 points (1st in Triple and 110H, and 300H and 6th in the Shotput, 7th in long jump

Bensalem: 48 points (2,5 in the 400, 1st in the 4x800 and 4x400, and 2nd in the open 800m, and second in the 200m. 

Gateway: 46 points (1st in the 100m and 4x100 and second in the 110H and Shotput, and 5th in the 200m, and 5th in the LJ) 

Seems as though Bensalen has won the team title by just two points over Gateway. Gateways top 200 runner missed finals which is real tough, but they have 3 of the 4 4x100 members returning, so they should be a great squad again next season. 

Really great competition all around today. Congratulations to all the athletes who participated today. 

I'm going to say this now and I hope people hear it, the conditions today were not fun, today was about getting a W. But PA has depth and has talent. I strongly encourage everyone to come out to the Henderson distance festival. With a loaded 800 we could definitley see a 1:50 or under.

In the mile with a rabbit out front we could see a sub 4:10.

In the 3k or 32 we could see 30+ guys break 9:20 for 3200m without a doubt in my mind. 

The state has a ton of talent this year, it is incredibly deep. If the state joins up to go after some fresh, fast times, we could see some of the best performances in state history.

Think about it.

Live Updates

Bad weather out there appearently. Windy and rainy and that will slow the distance times. If anyone has splits today or tomorrow I'd really like to have them posted up. Thanks!

Boys 4x800 Meter Relay AA
=========================================================================================
12 Advance:  Top 4 Each Heat plus Next 4 Best Times
 NFHS Record: ! 7:33.48  2009        , Central Bucks So HS, PA                 
                         Dickson, Manion, Poiesz, Mallon                   
 PIAA Record: R 7:44.44  2004        , Lewisburg HS 4                          
                         Moreau, Renner, Schoenfelder, Spooner             
NFHS Hnr Rol: # 7:52.00                                                        
                8:15.55  SQS
    School                                               Seed    Prelims                 
=========================================================================================
Heat  1 Preliminaries
  1 South Williamsport 04                             7:58.09    8:18.87Q                 
  2 Lakeview 10                                       8:09.40    8:20.69Q                 
  3 Trinity 03                                        8:07.87    8:21.99Q                 
  4 Southern Columbia Area 04                         8:09.84    8:22.76Q                 
  5 Masterman 12                                      8:14.28    8:26.53q                 
  6 Washington 07                                     8:16.99    8:31.05q                 
  7 Hickory 10                                        8:16.61    8:32.19q                 
  8 Mount Carmel Area 04                              8:14.97    8:36.35                  
  9 Windber Area 05                                   8:18.45    8:38.54                  
 10 Paul Robeson 12                                   8:26.57    8:47.38                  
 11 Avonworth 07                                      8:25.97    8:49.38                  
 12 North Schuylkill 11                               8:22.35    8:50.96                  
 13 Christopher Dock 01                               8:21.95    8:52.39                  
 14 Our Lady Of Sacred Heart 07                       8:18.64    8:58.61                  
Heat  2 Preliminaries
  1 Annville-Cleona 03                                7:53.67    8:20.25Q                 
  2 Wyomissing 03                                     8:08.62    8:22.49Q                 
  3 Lakeland 02                                       8:16.14    8:24.43Q                 
  4 Northeast Bradford 04                             8:08.00    8:24.52Q                 
  5 Northern Potter 09                                8:14.04    8:24.57q                 
  6 Freedom Area 07                                   8:13.15    8:32.58                  
  7 Boiling Springs 03                                8:15.11    8:32.95                  
  8 Riverside 07                                      8:17.13    8:36.30                  
  9 Richland 06                                       8:22.52    8:40.88                  
 10 Oswayo Valley 09                                  8:19.98    8:41.64                  
 11 Tyrone Area 06                                    8:21.36    8:44.27                  
 12 Minersville Area 11                               8:17.60    8:46.98                  
 13 Bellwood Antis 06                                 8:24.96    9:05.34                  
 14 Delaware Valley Charter 12                        8:33.27   10:31.24                  
 
Boys 4x800 Meter Relay AAA
=========================================================================================
12 Advance:  Top 4 Each Heat plus Next 4 Best Times
 NFHS Record: ! 7:33.48  2009        , Central Bucks So HS, PA                 
                         Dickson, Manion, Poiesz, Mallon                   
 PIAA Record: R 7:33.48  2009        , Central Bucks So HS 1                   
                         Dickson, Manion, Poiesz, Mallon                   
NFHS Hnr Rol: # 7:52.00                                                        
                8:02.04  SQS
    School                                               Seed    Prelims                 
=========================================================================================
Heat  1 Preliminaries
  1 Cumberland Valley 03                              7:48.52    8:03.67Q                 
  2 Red Lion 03                                       7:55.93    8:03.75Q                 
  3 Pennsbury 01                                      7:51.45    8:03.75Q                 
  4 North Allegheny 07                                7:54.29    8:05.72Q                 
  5 Cardinal O'Hara 12                                7:55.92    8:05.81q                 
  6 Downingtown East 01                               7:58.14    8:06.20q                 
  7 Hershey 03                                        7:58.74    8:07.58                  
  8 North Penn 01                                     7:58.57    8:11.11                  
  9 Altoona Area 06                                   7:54.92    8:15.40                  
 10 Governor Mifflin 03                               7:57.87    8:19.93                  
 11 Father Judge 12                                   8:00.83    8:20.14                  
 12 Manheim Central 03                                8:00.63    8:23.70                  
 13 Saint Marys Area 09                               8:13.18    8:41.22                  
 14 Whitehall 11                                      8:06.24    8:51.42                  
Heat  2 Preliminaries
  1 Bensalem 01                                       7:48.03    8:01.29QSQS              
  2 Carlisle 03                                       7:52.45    8:02.06Q                 
  3 State College Area 06                             7:52.51    8:02.99Q                 
  4 Cheltenham 01                                     7:55.15    8:03.09Q                 
  5 Williamsport Area 04                              7:55.42    8:04.09q                 
  6 Kiski Area 07                                     7:56.65    8:04.27q                 
  7 Penncrest 01                                      7:58.29    8:09.12                  
  8 Upper Darby 01                                    7:59.44    8:09.30                  
  9 Central Bucks East 01                             7:57.73    8:11.69                  
 10 Canon-McMillan 07                                 8:00.39    8:16.57                  
 11 Norwin 07                                         8:06.06    8:26.76                  
 12 Central Dauphin 03                                7:58.30    8:26.87                  
 13 Parkland 11                                       8:02.00    8:39.22                  
 14 North Pocono 02                                   8:16.50    8:49.67                  
 15 Grove City Area 10                                8:21.64    8:53.84      

Boys 1600 Meter Run AA
=========================================================================================
12 Advance:  Top 4 Each Heat plus Next 4 Best Times
 NFHS Record: ! 3:59.51  2001        Alan Webb, RestonSoLakesHS, VA            
 PIAA Record: R 4:03.22  1987        Paul Vandegrift, Arch Kennedy HS 1        
NFHS Hnr Rol: # 4:12.00                                                        
                4:31.13  SQS
    Name                    Year School                  Seed    Prelims                 
=========================================================================================
Heat  1 Preliminaries
  1   129 Seykora, Tom        12 Devon Prep 01        4:29.62    4:30.39QSQS              
  2   256 Walker, Sean        12 Lewisburg 04         4:24.14    4:30.50QSQS              
  3   117 Vella, Tyler        11 Danville Area 04     4:25.92    4:31.18Q                 
  4   624 Hill, Bobby         12 Wellsboro 04         4:27.04    4:31.97Q                 
  5   198 Hiller, Jay         12 Hughesville 04       4:29.63    4:32.23q                 
  6    23 Gusew, Jonathan     12 Avonworth 07         4:30.75    4:32.80q                 
  7    36 Bartlett, Kyle      12 Bellwd Antis 06      4:37.37    4:34.83                  
  8   491 Sweet, Nick         10 Sayre Area 04        4:25.72    4:37.88                  
  9    49 Wilt, Brady         10 Biglerville 03       4:28.86    4:38.20                  
 10   637 Dailey, Kevin       12 Wstmnt Hlltop 06     4:37.88    4:38.99                  
 11   536 Trimble, Colten     10 South Side 07        4:30.29    4:39.32                  
 12    84 Brinkley, Anthony   12 Catasauqua 11        4:34.42    4:46.06                  
 13   608 Archer, Alex        12 Vincentian 07        4:38.24    4:46.95                  
 14   213 Colson, Avery       12 Kane Area 09         4:41.49    4:48.79                  
 15   485 Gordon, Amir        10 Roxborough 12        4:48.02    4:56.64                  
 --   379 Jewett, Curt        12 NE Bradford 04       4:18.14         DQ                  
Heat  2 Preliminaries
  1   364 Smathers, Ryan      12 North East 10        4:17.13    4:29.72QSQS              
  2   297 Curtin, Sebastian   10 Mrcyhrst Prep 10     4:24.62    4:30.30QSQS              
  3   372 Shearn, Brendan     12 No Schuykill 11      4:24.22    4:30.45QSQS              
  4   549 Steely, Andrew      11 Sthr Columbia 04     4:26.00    4:30.64QSQS              
  5   382 Williams, Sam       12 NE Bradford 04       4:28.57    4:31.48q                 
  6   499 Heck, Glen          11 Schuylkll Vly 03     4:30.81    4:32.41q                 
  7   296 Reno, Kevin         12 Mercer Area 10       4:26.39    4:32.90                  
  8   554 Richards, Tyler     11 Sthrn Fulton 05      4:37.65    4:34.56                  
  9   644 England, Bryce      11 Williamsburg 06      4:37.71    4:36.60                  
 10   529 Rigby, Tyler        12 South Park 07        4:30.06    4:38.71                  
 11   234 Morgan, Nathan      10 Lakeland 02          4:28.99    4:39.30                  
 12   188 Ford, Mitchel       12 Holy Redeemer 02     4:29.80    4:40.45                  
 13   648 Loevner, Will        9 Wnchst Thrstn 07     4:31.02    4:43.40                  
 14   214 Hunt, Chris         11 Kane Area 09         4:40.01    4:48.00                  
 15   285 Rosessler, Julian   11 Masterman 12         4:45.78    4:48.84                  
 16   494 Wade, Ronald           HS of Future 12      4:54.72    4:59.66                  
 
Boys 1600 Meter Run AAA
=========================================================================================
12 Advance:  Top 4 Each Heat plus Next 4 Best Times
 NFHS Record: ! 3:59.51  2001        Alan Webb, RestonSoLakesHS, VA            
 PIAA Record: R 4:07.32  2011        Drew Magaha, Upper Moreland HS 1          
NFHS Hnr Rol: # 4:12.00                                                        
                4:24.22  SQS
    Name                    Year School                  Seed    Prelims                 
=========================================================================================
Heat  1 Preliminaries
  1   690 Russell, Tony       11 WC Henderson 01      4:14.75    4:23.17QSQS              
  2   541 Harriman, Connor    12 Pennsbury 01         4:16.75    4:23.19QSQS              
  3   156 Zingarini, James    12 CR North 01          4:15.23    4:23.61QSQS              
  4   233 Martin, James       12 Garden Spot 03       4:23.62    4:23.62QSQS              
  5   184 Leidal, Kenny       12 D-Town West 01       4:18.97    4:24.13qSQS              
  6   207 Abert, Colin        10 Easton Area 11       4:21.87    4:25.54                  
  7   366 Groh, Jeff          11 Lower Dauphin 03     4:16.90    4:28.42                  
  8   271 Sloan, Nathan       11 Hampton 07           4:19.42    4:28.67                  
  9   339 Snider, Tyler       12 Kiski Area 07        4:20.54    4:29.13                  
 10   364 Sauvageau, Xavier   12 Littlestown 03       4:20.95    4:30.79                  
 11   285 Birk, Andrew        12 Hempfield 03         4:23.92    4:30.86                  
 12   601 Brier, Mike         12 Scranton Prep 02     4:28.83    4:33.14                  
 13   577 Lauer, Aaron        11 Red Land 03          4:21.66    4:35.11                  
 14   219 Patterson, Mike        Father Judge 12      4:28.32    4:37.04                  
Heat  2 Preliminaries
  1   343 Coyle, Tom          12 La Salle 12          4:18.31    4:20.13QSQS              
  2   385 Watro, Curtis       12 Methacton 01         4:17.29    4:20.13QSQS              
  3   689 Moy, Kevin          11 WC Henderson 01      4:16.01    4:20.68QSQS              
  4   638 Huemmler, Jack      12 Strath Haven 01      4:13.68    4:21.71QSQS              
  5   265 Jaskowak, Daniel    12 Grove City 10        4:26.91    4:21.91qSQS              
  6   517 Schettler, Harriso  12 Penn Manor 03        4:15.31    4:22.06qSQS              
  7    47 Yousif, Aziz        12 Bradford Area 09     4:39.20    4:24.57q                 
  8   686 Mueller, Ben        12 Warwick 03           4:21.12    4:26.15                  
  9   565 Wathen, John        12 Pleasant Vly 11      4:26.27    4:27.83                  
 10   304 Kardish, Christian  11 Holy Ghost 01        4:20.29    4:29.95                  
 11   367 Nissley, Cole       11 Lower Dauphin 03     4:21.41    4:30.36                  
 12   551 Reinhart, Thomas    12 Pine-Richland 07     4:22.52    4:31.31                  
 13   388 Colwell, Jon        11 Mifflin Cnty 06      4:19.57    4:35.34                  
 14   242 Palenchak, Tyler    12 Gateway 07           4:23.36    4:41.12                  
 15   711 McGarvey, Liam      10 Williamsport 04      4:38.58    4:53.03                  

Indoors v outdoors

Indoor state champs last 5 years
Wilson, Willig, Hardy
Gil, Endress, Endress
Gunzenhauser, Mallon, Lefebure
Micikas, Ivo, Mallon
Izewski, Kaulbach, Rhodes

Out of those 15 men just one took home the outdoor state title in the event they won indoors (Mallon) bad news for Huemmler Norris and Rivera?

You decide

State Championship Predictions: AAA 800m

Somehow I feel like I've managed to not make the same title style for any of these predictions. Hmm. Anyway, let's get right down to business in the always compelling AAA 800m race. What do I want to do with this race? There are a lot of compelling story lines here. If this field was assembled at a post season meet where all could run fresh, we could realistically see a 1:50 or under time. At states, I'm not counting on it. But that being said I still think things will be competitive and fast.

Out of heat 1, I think our finalists will be Jeff Wiseman, Andrew Stone, Zach Brehm and Dave Garton. Wiseman with no issue here, his kick is phenomenal and the season he has had leaves no doubt in my mind that he will get through. Stone has not been as strong as he was a year ago in my mind, keeping a relatively low profile, but I think Stone is hungry for a state title and gets through. No one is talking about him at all including myself and how a guy with his credentials has been essentially forgotten from the discussion is beyond me. Brehm should get in. Normally I would doubt a sophomore's abilities to double at the state meet but I think last weekend he showed everyone how strong he was. He qualified for the finals last year as a freshman when I doubted him and I haven't forgotten. Lastly I like Garton to sneak up and surprise. Without having to swing 4x8 duties I think he will be a lot stronger and ready to sneak up and get in to the final with a capital Q next to his name.

In heat 2, I think the finalists will likely be Joe Logue, Alec Kunzweiler, Alex Nole and Steve Yannacone. This heat is softer to me than the previous heat and if a sleeper is going to come from somewhere I think it is this heat. I'm not huge on the D7 800m guys as you can tell from my predictions. I don't know why, those guys have been solid throughout the year, but the D1 guys have big race experience and great kicks. Logue and Yannacone have proven themselves. Kunzweiler has been money this year and if necessary he will run 1:52 in the prelims and make finals. Last year he ran 1:53ish and it didn't phase him for day 2. Nole is the wildcard here out of D2. He has run 1:54 and soloed a 1:55 last weekend to win extremely easily so I like his upside against some of the doubling guys like Becich, Caldwell, Jaskowak and Cox-Finn.

The at large guys in my mind will be Brad Rivera, Dylin Wilhoite, Sean Gipson, and Matt Sankey.
Its hard for me to pick just 4 guys looking down this list. Smith, Mazzanti, and Culley are all quality guys that I think will be left off the finalists list. Rivera I'm counting on slipping in, he was the indoor state champ after all. Wilhoite has won a lot of big D7 meets, now the only question is can he do it against the big names in D1. I hesitantly stick him through. Gipson ran a quality 1:55 last weekend seemingly out of nowhere. I'm hoping that's a Drew Gerberich type performance. Gerberich dropped to 1:55 out of nowhere and then 1:53 at states. Is Gipson are Gerberich that I asked about at the very beginning of the season? Sankey is strong as well and dropping the 16 should be a smart move.

Guys left out of the finals in this scenario would include Magee, Culley, Smith, Mizzanti, Jaskowak, Caldwell, Cox-Finn, Smail, Sullivan, Coburn, Hunter, Stelly and Becich. Wow. Great field of guys and will definitely be a great final.

In the final, we will see a battle between stud Alec Kunzweiler and the field. I'm a huge Kunzweiler fan and if he was running fresh he would be my pick. But I think that Kunzweiler will have to run very hard in the relay, maybe a sub 1:50 split to give his team a gold, and so when he is closing down the last 100m of this open 8, I think Jeff Wiseman will put on his kick that he has unleashed all year and surprise Kunzweiler to take down to a gold. I think Andrew Stone is a huge sleeper here. He has a lot of talent and if he is ready for this meet, which the LaSalle boys usually are, he could use his fresh legs to his advantage. Brehm is clearly a stud and he will follow Kunzweiler like a hawk in this race. If he isn't too tired from a busy weekend last weekend, he will sneak into the top group.

I'm not sure where to place Joe Logue. I thought his kick would be good enough to compete with Wiseman, but he didn't put himself up front early enough to mix it up at the finish. The nice thing is, this will be the closest thing to a Henderson Invite repeat Logue will see: a fast pace with lots of quality guys to do the work and then try to kick. Logue's best open time before his 1:51 last year was just 1:54. Rivera is the indoor state champ and has medaled in the 8 before. But likely Rivera is going to be leading this race or pushing the pace and on tired legs that could be his undoing. Yannacone was the D1 champ a year ago. I'm not sure if he is as fit as last year but he surprised me in a competitive D1 race so he could surprise me again here, but I'm not going big with him.

In a race like this, it's going to be a free for all for the final medal spots, especially considering it's going to be a free for all for the final finalists spots. My bet is that something like 5th and 10th will be within the same second or so.

Here's how I think it plays out
1. Wiseman 1:51
2. Kunzweiler 1:52
3. Logue 1:52
4. Stone 1:53
5. Brehm 1:53
6. Nole 1:53
7. Gipson 1:54
8. Yannacone 1:54
9. Rivera 1:54
10. Garton 1:54
11. Sankey 1:54
12. Wilhoite 1:55

That's it for my predictions! Leave your own and comment away, just try not to be too harsh with one another, I don't want to have to delete comments.

State Championships: AA 800m Predictions

The 800m is my personal favorite event to be a part of as an 800m guy for just about all of my running career. So I love to see a good 800m race and watch guys lay it all on the line in this race. So now I lay my 800m reputation on the line going for the predictions in the 800m.

Out of Heat 1, I see Dan Alexander, James Clements, Mark Arzie and Andrew Miller getting the auto times. Alexander has fresh legs and has been a consistently top 800m guy in the AA scene for the past few years. Clements, a D1 rival out of Christopher Dock, may expend a lot of energy in the 4x8, but I think it is equally possible his team will be out of it enough to allow him to conserve. Miller and Arzie are going to be doubling and both will have likely ran fairly hard on the 4x8, but I think that they are talented enough to get through anyway. Arzie seems very strong based on what I have seen despite the fact that he just a sophomore.

Out of Heat 2, I got Ryan Smathers, Curt Jewett, Shawn Wolfe and Jordan Jackson getting through. Yeah, I'm aware that's just the top 4 seeds, but these guys are all big names on the AA scene. Jackson is the top returner in this event while Smathers is the defending state champ in the mile and has successfully qualified for the finals in both events each of the past two years. Wolfe is the top seed in this field and the heavy favorite to win this race. Jewett I suppose is the most likely guy to miss qualifying because he has rarely tried this double, but I feel Jewett can run the likely 1:58ish qualifying time with his eyes closed.

The at large spots make the event much more interesting. Colton Snyder out of NE Bradford is a returning finalist and as long as he doesn't waste too much in the 4x8 trials, he should be able to get into the finals. The same goes for Jonathan Goodson. His Big Spring team needs a big leg from him in the trials, but I think he won't have much of an issue getting through the first round as an at large qualifier. After that the question essentially becomes is anyone going to break out or are the rest of the favorites going to dominate? I'll go out on a bit of a limb and say that Jordan Wilt and Ryan Detsch step up after relatively little competition at their district meet and end up sneaking into the finals.

In the final, the race is Shawn Wolfe's to lose and I don't expect him to let it get away. He has run some very fast times with very little competition so I would hate to see what he can do if he is actually pushed this outdoor season. The only concern I have is his fairly busy schedule of two relays and the 8, while Dan Alexander and Jordan Jackson can play upset here with relatively fresh legs, focusing only on the 800m. I don't expect either of those two to take it down, but they are the guys I would look at if I wanted to call upset.

Smathers and Jewett are interesting here. Both are super talented, but both are going to be laying it all on the line in the 1600m and I'm not sure how much either will have left. Smathers has tried this double the past two years and finished 12th and 8th and in the finals. Jewett's one 16-8 double at Henderson was not incredibly successful either. I'm not sure I can bid high on either runner in this spot. The loser of the 16 out of these two has a much better shot of doing well in my mind.

The rest of the contenders will be pulling double duty off the 4x8. I really like Arzie in this race, he has done fantastic this season and I think he could be 1:56 if conditions pan out well. Snyder has had some positive momentum as of late and I'm sure having a teammate in the race is only extra motivation. James Clements had one heck of a race last weekend against Alexander and I don't expect his 4x8 squad to make finals. He could be the wild card in this race.

Here's how I see the boys crossing the line when all is said and done:
1. Wolfe 1:53
2. Alexander 1:55
3. Clements 1:56
4. Jackson 1:56
5. Arzie 1:56
6. Snyder 1:57
7. Smathers 1:57
8. Goodson 1:57

State Predictions: AAA 4x800m

Oh my goodness. Your guess is as good as mine here. An incredible amount of depth and a lot of hard running is going to go down in both trials and finals to get this done and that is going to make things very fun for us but very nerve racking for the runners and even the favorites in this field.

But I suppose I have to try and predict it ... Don't judge me too harshly if these are way off because it could go a lot of different ways. Here we go.

Out of Heat 1 I see the 4 auto qualifiers as follows: CValley, Pennsbury, O'Hara and Red Lion
This heat is filled with some of my favorite sleeper pick teams and some of the best overall teams and that is going to make it very hard for even great teams like CV to make it out of these rounds in one piece. It probably will take around 7:50-52 to get an auto qualifying spot comfortably. CV is obviously the favorite and Kunzweiler will get the team into the finals. Pennsbury has a lot of very nice pieces and with 4 fresh legs they shouldn't have too much of an issue getting through to the finals on talent. O'Hara is the big sleeper here, they have a lot of under the radar talent. Red Lion has been a very strong team all this year, I like their pieces and I'm banking on them rising to the moment with a big anchor and a big relay PR to make it past day 1.

Out of Heat 2 I got Carlisle, State College, Bensalem and Cheltenham
This heat is very tricky. I don't think it is quite as talented as the first heat and Bensalem should be able to run fairly relaxed and get in to the finals to set up a Penn Relays rematch. I'm a big State College fan. All the SC guys have only this race to worry about, it means everything to them and I think that pays off. Carlisle has Brehm on the anchor and Brehm on fresh legs is scary to me. They have solid legs in front of him and Brehm should bring it home. Cheltenham is one of about 4 teams in this race that I think could take the last spot. I have seen them run great at various meets this season, they have always risen to the occasion  They haven't broken through for that low 7:50s mark, but this weekend may be the weekend.

What other 4 do I think will get in? Well I have Kiski, Williamsport Area, CB East and North Allegheny. I'm not sure how I feel about NA at this race, I really didn't think they had 7:54 in them at all. I threw them in the finals because they have proved me wrong already this year so why not again. CB East has been a solid team all year. I think they can still drop more time from last week and they will need to to get in. Williamsport is the big sleeper all year, I have to ride them all the way through to the finals. Kiski is another one of my teams that I have backed all year and I feel obligated to back them. They have much more talent than 7:56 in my mind.

Teams left out include Altoona who certainly could make it through to the finals. I worry a bit about their star power to have an anchor to bring it home, but they ran strong against State College last weekend so maybe they will surprise again. DT East is a team I really like, but Caldwell carried them last weekend. The other legs need to step up, but if they do, they could sneak into the finals. Penncrest is always a strong team, they are consistently in the mix to make finals. I, again, am skeptical of their fire power to mix it up with the other anchors in this race who are big names in a lot of cases, but if somebody steps up to become a 1:55-56 type it's a different ball game.

Now to the finals. The battle out front should be between Cumberland Valley and Bensalem, but I really think Cardinal O'Hara has the potential to be right there. If Kevin James was on this relay I would be picking O'Hara to become state champions, but without James I am a little worried about the inconsistency of some of the O'Hara legs on the relay. I also worry about Smart or Belfatto or whoever anchors matching up against Francis and Kunzweiler who are 1:51 splits at states almost without a doubt.

In the match up with Bensalem and CV, it is going to be key for Rivera to dominate on the lead off leg. As I have mentioned I'm not a huge fan of either squads order, but I assume by this point they aren't going to make any changes. Bensalem is better on paper without a doubt. CV's front 2 legs have not posted times that match up with Cox Finn and Rivera and Francis on paper are better than Coburn and Kunzweiler.

However, if Rivera only leads off in 1:55ish like he did at districts, they give CV a chance to stay in it during the opening legs. Bensalem has to keep the pace fast and try and bury CV's lead off leg in the pack. If they do that they leave a tough job for the rest of the CV boys. The big leg will be Coburn v. Cox-Finn. It is likely that Cox-Finn will be out front with probably a team like Pennsbury (if Webb can hang on at all after that 32) and Cheltenham (if they run Lewis 2nd as they have in the past) while CV will be back a bit depending on how much their first two legs step up. Coburn is going to need a 1:53ish mark to catch his squad back up. He is definitely capable of it. If CV and Bensalem give off to the anchors at the same time, I'm betting on Kunzweiler. He has a 1:50ish split in his legs without a doubt and he was unbelievably clutch a year ago. But Francis is no joke and he will be relatively fresh, hopefully fresher than Penn Relays.

Ultimately, I expect Francis to have enough of a lead that he can hold of Kunzweiler, but it should be close once again. I really like CV but I'm picking Bensalem to pull this one out because I do believe they have 3 very strong legs and I think that will be enough.

Behind these teams I like State College and O'Hara to battle it out. Both can definitely run under 7:50 in the 4x8 and both are focused on this relay and this relay alone. That is huge in my mind and they will run very well. Behind them a big leg from Brehm could get Carlisle in the mix or if Cheltenham finally breaks out they will be in the mix for sub 7:50. Pennsbury is a great team here with Sauer and Harriman to lead them. They need O'Connell to have a bit of a step up day, he has struggled a bit as of late but I know he has a huge split in him waiting to happen. Of course Webb will be the key. Just a young sophomore that double on a hot day at states is going to be brutal. He will get the baton out front with the leaders most likely given Harriman's racing this year, but can Webb hang on or will he blow up? That is the difference between a sub 7:50 effort for Pennsbury and being left off the medal stand. I worry about both Kiski and NA considering the guys they have in the 32 and in the individual events. I like Red Lion a lot as mentioned above, but I am worried they will have gone too hard in the trials to make an impact here in the finals. Williamsport is a sleeper of course, but I'm not sure if they are 7:51 good. Time will tell I suppose. CB East has nice pieces as has been mentioned. They need to have a good weekend, but they could be in the medal mix.

Ultimately it is time to post up the predictions. Here is what I got.
1. Bensalem 7:43
2. Cumberland Valley 7:44
3. O'Hara 7:48
4. State College 7:49
5. Carlisle 7:51
6. Pennsbury 7:51
7. Cheltenham 7:52
8. CB East 7:54

I think Red Lion will run around 7:52 in the trials and Williamsport should be around the same mark, maybe 7:53. NA and Kiski both can run sub 7:55 in the trials without a doubt. Probably a 7:55ish mark will be sitting at home on Day 2.

State Championship Predictions: AA 4x800m

The relays are easily my favorite event to watch at states, but naturally they are one of the hardest to predict. Who will run on which relay? How much will be saved or sacrificed for individual events? The nice thing is it is the first race of the weekend so in the qualifying heats everybody is fresh.

So who is getting through to the finals? Well in my mind out of heat 1 I see Trinity, South Williamsport, Lake View and Souther Columbia Area. Now I am far from an expert on AA 4x8s, but I know that Trinity has been very strong in this event throughout the entire time I have been following the state meet and I expect them to get through the first round. South Williamsport comes in with a seed time miles ahead of the field. I don't think they will have a big issue getting through the rounds either. Lake View was a fairly comfortable district champion who I think may have time to drop and Southern Columbia was just another fast seeded team that I saw potential in. I feel in the AA 4x8 there are fairly clear cut levels of ability.

In Heat 2 I predict Anville Celona, Lakeland, Northeast Bradford, and Wyomissing will get in. Wyomissing is a lot like Trinity because they are farily consistent AA program that turns out good 4-8 talent. Northeast Bradford, I believe, is running hot enough to get through the first round. Lakeland in my mind is an underrated team out of district 2. They have some solid guys and should get through. And Anville Celona is a heavy favorite in this race and I would be incredibly surprised if they didn't make it out of the rounds.

Taking the final four spots in the final I got Masterman, Freedom Area, Boiling Springs and Oswayo Valley. Oswayo Valley is a bit of  a question mark here because it is hard to say whether Barrett Kemp will join the squad or save up for the 32. I think there is enough time for him to run both without much issue in terms of the prelims and the 32 finals. The 4x8 finals, as everyone knows, will be a tough one to run. Masterman has been an under the radar squad for some time and hopefully learned something from Keaton Naff a year ago. Boiling Springs has a great anchor which should help them get through the rounds and Freedom was the D7 champion and D7 usually performs well at states so I threw them in.

Looking ahead to the finals, doubling becomes an issue. You have guys like Sam Williams, Griffin Molino and Barrett Kemp who will have the 32 in their legs as well as Shawn Wolfe who will have tripled the day before. A lot of other relays will have had runners in the individual events including Masterman, Lakeland, Southern Columbia, Wyomissing, Boiling Springs, and Trinity.

So in this war of attrition who will come out on top?

Well Annville Celona in my mind has got the W. Wolfe and Mason (sub 49 open 4) look incredibly strong and Wolfe on the anchor in itself should be enough to get this team around the track sub 8 minutes and that may be good enough to take the victory. Behind them, things are pretty up for grabs. I think that South Williamsport has the best shot at second but having Molino double like that really worries me. I'm not positive as just a sophomore he will be able to give them a strong leg on the 4x8. I like Lakeland a lot as well, Arzie is a really strong guy to have on the anchor. But he is just a sophomore and this is a big moment for a sophomore to take on. If NE Bradford was definitely going to have an A team of Williams, Jewett, Snyder and one more then I'd be on board with this squad for 2nd, but that is far from guarenteed given what I have seen from their other entries.

Ultimately I suppose I have to make some picks here so I'll give it my best shot but don't be surprised if I'm quite wrong on the predictions here.

1. Anville Celona 7:54
2. South Williamsport 8:00
3. Lakeland 8:01
4. Wyomissing 8:02
5. Trinity 8:02
6. NE Bradford 8:04
7. Southern Columbia 8:04
8. Lakeview 8:07

States Predictions: AAA 1600m

Same deal as before, gotta establish the qualifiers before I pick out the medalists.

In heat one I got the auto qualifiers as Russell, Zingarini, Leidal and Sloan
Sloan is going to have run a big PR to get this auto-qualifier. It's going to take 4:15ish to make it out of this heat with an auto-bid in my mind. I'm optimistic about Leidal and Sloan here. Russell and Zingarini are smart, strong runners. A fast pace only benefits them and they shouldn't struggle to get through. With Groh and Abert in this heat I'd be very surprised if this heat was not very quick in the early goings.

In heat two I have Huemmler, Moy, Coyle and Schettler getting through on the auto-bid
I see this one being a bit more of a kickers race and that means Huemmler and Coyle are licking their chops. Schettler made the final last year and I think that experience helps him get through. Huemmler and Coyle are money obviously and I'd be stunned if one of them misses out on the finals. And then Moy is the classic boom bust pick in this spot. He is a bit inexperienced but he has been on a roll as of late and has a killer kick which is quite valuable in a race like this. I worry a little bit that he isn't in the same heat as Tony, who is the perfect teammate for a guy like Moy because he is experienced smart and if you can be anywhere close by you are going to run a great time, but I'm optimistic that Moy's kick and momentum gets him to the final.

Then there will be a bunch of guys fighting hard for the at large qualifying spots. With 4 on the line, I think that first heat will be fast enough to get Groh in at least. Harriman is going to have run hard in that 4x8 for sure, his 4x8 heat is quite stacked, so I wouldn't be surprised at all if he misses finals. But I think he hangs tough and gets one of the last spots in. Someone else in this 1st heat may step up to the plate and run a huge surprise time off a fast pace, but right now I can't pick out who that will be. The last two spots are very tricky to call. Dan Jaskowak steps it up come states time but I'm not picking him to get through but not very confidently. He seemed to be running with a lot more confidence a year ago and had posted a lot faster times, but it's always hard to count out a guy with his potential. The 2nd heat has a lot more talent in my mind, someone very talented is going to be left out of the finals. Ultimately I'm going Colwell and Watro to pull this one out. I like Kardish a lot, he could certainly be the surprise of this heat, but I'm worried about the way he has been front running lately and he may pay for it in this race given all the talented kickers in the field. Watro showed great closing speed twice last weekend. 4:17 may be his ceiling, but I think that kind of mark is good enough to get him into the finals.

Now the final sets up to be on to remember. Obviously, the depth of the state has been something that has been talked to death on here, but the quality of this projected final speaks volumes about just how good the state is. In the final, I have to drop Groh out of the conversation. That 32-16 double is no joke and I can't, in good faith, pick him to dominate the double. Especially because I see him being a factor in the 32 and tired after a very hard run in the 16 the day before. Harriman is a big question mark for me here as well. He runs lead off on the 4x8 so he will be trying to complete the successful doubled Nick Rotz did a year ago. Harriman ran unreal last weekend, I didn't expect him to have such a great double, but at states doubling is even harder than it is at districts. I am leaving Harriman out of the medals as well.

I'm not sure how fast the pace will be in the early going of this 16. I think things will be fairly slow and favor the kickers, I don't see many guys making it honest early. Leidal likely learned his lesson last weekend about leading races out front. I'm projecting somewhere around 2:08-2:12 for the first 800m. Then things should get interesting. I forsee somebody making a move at 800m, likely Russell but could be someone like Sloan or Colwell or Schettler (haven't seen these guys race in person), waking up the field a bit and things will start to crank down.

The last lap will be a true kicker's race and a fantastic battle to the finish. I think this will become a three man race by 200m to go with Russell, Coyle and Huemmler coming around the turn in that order. I think Russell has improved his kick over the last few weeks, he and his coach know that is what it is going to take to win. But that being said, Coyle and Huemmler are proven 1:52-1:51 types and they might just be too quick down the stretch. Ultimately I think those two will be able to slightly pull away from Russell as the race comes to a close. It will be close, but I have Russell finishing third.

Who will take down the victory out front? Coyle the defending outdoor state champion or Huemmler the winner indoors? I think something was a little off with Coyle indoors at states. I'm not sure if it was sickness or not, but he seemed off especially after what I saw at PCLs. He would never make excuses or discredit the great running by the other guys so we will never know, but I think that wasn't a true test of his ability.

That being said, Huemmler put himself in a tough spot last outdoors. He was worried about a fast time more so than the win and that ultimately cost him when Coyle put on his kick at the finish. Huemmler will adjust accordingly for this meet.

Honestly I'm just glad we get to see this match up unlike the Willig Magaha match up that was hyped up by me a year ago. I think this race lives up to the hype with 3 guys within one second of one another. I think it comes down to a lean for the gold just like indoor states last year and this time Jack Huemmler is the guy to take down the victory by less than a tenth of a second.

Behind the 3 out front, Zingarini seems the most likely guy to break up the group. Zingarini reminds me of Vince Perozze. Zingarini is a very solid runner, great strength runner, no flashy 800m speed but consistently solid running and a strong kick and gusty running. Harrison Schettler has been running great for some time now as well, he can maybe break up the District One fanfest. Kevin Moy has that dangerous kick and in this kind of kickers race, he may be the most dangerous of the "non-favorites" out there. Harriman is very dangerous in terms of a kick as well. If he isn't too exhausted from the 4x8 he will really benefit from a slower pace.

Ultimately, here are my medalists. It is a little bit of D1 bias in action, but I just don't know enough about some of these guys to pick them to finish at the top. I hope they are not too offended and I hope they show me something big at the meet.

1. Huemmler 4:11
2. Coyle 4:11
3. Russell 4:12
4. Moy 4:14
5. Zingarini 4:14
6. Schettler 4:14
7. Leidal 4:16
8. Watro 4:17

Like I said, heavy D1 bias here, but those guys are great with solid kicks so I'm expecting big things. All 8 D1 guys are legit medal contenders.

States Predictions: AA 1600m

I was waiting to previews for the non 3200m distance events because I wanted to see how the heats lined up. In my mind that plays a big factor in those 6-12 placing spots because running a hard trial heat the day before can wear on you, especially if you are doing a lot of doubling or tripling in the heat.

So in the AA 1600m, I've looked over the heat sheets and I've got some speculation on who will get through the first day.
In heat one I see Curt Jewett, Sean Walker, Bobby Hill and Tom Seykora taking the 4 auto spots. I'm probably a little biased on Seykora because I watched him run last weekend, but he looked very in control in that race and I'm banking on a big day for him. Hill has run 4:19 this year, he was off at districts but I see him bouncing back. Walker and Jewett were studs at the D4 meet and I believe they are talented enough to get through. My only worry for Jewett (and Williams later on) is if they try to go for the 4x8 they are going to be worn fairly thin.

In heat two I got Smathers, Shearn, Reno and Rigby getting the auto qualifying spots. Shearn and Smathers are talented guys who have made the finals the past two years without issue while Reno and Rigby are talented guys out of D7. Rigby had a killer indoors and I'm hoping he will return to form at the outdoor state meet.

That leaves 4 qualifying spots up for grabs. If Williams is not running the 4x8 (which I speculate that he and Jewett will not run) he should be one of the 4 qualifiers. With him I expect Brady Wilt, Sebastin Curtin and Andrew Steely to get through. District 4 has so many talented guys it is hard to pick which ones will rise to the occassion and which will not, but clearly the D4 guys were in a competitive race a week ago with a guy out front to pull them along so the potential to drop time is a bit less than some of the other guys in other districts.

Now in the finals, I think Jewett and Smathers are clearly the top guys in this field. Williams and Shearn will be fairly tired after the 32 and Hill is the only other guy under 4:20 this year outdoors. After the top 2 medal spots, I think things are fairly up for grabs.

If the race is like last year's Smathers and Jewett will push from the gun and see how fast they can go. Jewett has already had good experience going out hard at Henderson and Penn Relays and has proven he can run very fast times. Smathers, however, is the defending state champion. Smathers did get outkicked by Martin a bit earlier this year, but Jewett strikes me more as a strength kicker than speed kicker. If these guys both are going for it from the gun, it will be a matter of who holds on better, but if one decides to settle in and work off the other, they will be able to win. That being said, that's easier said than done. If you let things get tactical I think a big move from Jewett at around 800m could win the race, but Smathers I believe would win if things stay slow until 1200.

Ultimately, I think this race is fast and these guys run gutsy, and I think Curt Jewett hangs on for the upset victory over Smathers. I see those guys as a clear cut 1-2. Behind them I'm going big on Tyler Rigby out of District 7. I am hoping to see a return to his form indoors, I like what I saw from him there. Then I have to expect Bobby Hill to step up and return to form.

After this I think Reno will hold on against Williams and Shearn. Both of those guys are going to be so tired after running all out in the 32 with chances to win and definitely end up top 3. Williams doubled better than Shearn a year ago, but in the oppressive heat it could have gone either way. I think Shearn does a better job bouncing back this year in cooler weather, but I can't go too bold on him because he will have to work hard to beat Galassi. He has a better chance of doing well in the 16 if he loses the 32 (which as mentioned earlier I don't think will happen).

Here is how I ultimately see the 1600 finishing up:
1. Jewett 4:14
2. Smathers 4:15
3. Rigby 4:20
4. Hill 4:21
5. Reno 4:23
6. Shearn 4:24
7. Williams 4:24
8. Walker 4:25

Times are fairly speculative here, there is potential for those to be blown out of the water.

State Championship Predictions: AAA 3200m

The AAA boys 3200m is a race that I am really excited to see results for. In my opinion the race is incredibly up for grabs although Norris has to be the favorite for his big time performances in the past. At districts, I definitely wouldn't say Norris looked comfortable, but I also don't think he went into that race trying to do anything more than get the state qualifying time.

I thought about how so many people really focus their energy on saving for the state championships and I decided to do a little check back at the state champions the last few years in the 32. Last year it was Sam Hibbs who dominated the district one championship and ran a then PR mark. Before him Glenn Burkhardt did essentially the same thing dominating the D1 championship. Neither of those guys felt the need to save anything and won their races by convincing margins. Before Burkhardt you had Fischer, who was second at D1 and outkicked by his teammate Burkhardt, but the two pushed the pace the whole way. Tarsnane won before then, he ran hard at districts while Furcht saved himself for states, but Tarsnane still won both. Dennin won the year before that winning both the district one title and the state title with PR marks back to back weeks.

So really in my opinion the whole saving yourself thing is overrated. The cream rises to the top. So, therefore, in my mind everyone is on even footing this week whether they saved up or not. So does that mean I should go Ross Wilson for state champion?

Sorry man, I can't go that bold. I can't believe this guy has dominated as much as he had racing 32 after 32. He looked the most comfortable out of any guy I saw in the D1 race if I'm being perfectly honest. But my head says all those hard 32s back to back to back to back to back will finally add up. Doesn't mean he can't jump up and snag a medal, but I don't think he will win.

I go back and forth on who I will pick to win this race. There are a lot of guys that I think could, here is my list: Norris, Wilson, Kennedy, Martin, Todaro and James. If anyone else one, I'd be surprised, although it certainly could happen considering the quality of this field.

In order to pick between this group I had to consider how the race itself would play out. I don't anticipate things being incredibly fast from the gun, but I do hope that some combination of Groh, Wilson, James, Quinn and whichever other front runners are out there keep this thing honest. I can't help but compare this race in many ways to the 3200m I saw back in 2009 at Shippensburg. Ben Furcht, Bobby Micikas and Jimmy Tarsnane were the top 3 in the race. Micikas had won Penn Relays and Indoor states by outkicking the field that included Ben Furcht who was runner up both times. Furcht didn't have the wheels to win in a kicker's race so he hammered the whole way on the second mile to try and suck the kick out of Micikas. It worked and Micikas just didn't have it that day, but Tarsnane did. He surprised Furcht with about a 60 second last lap and took a surprise gold despite a gutsy run by Ben.

For some reason I equate Norris to Micikas. Norris is a bit more accomplished in both XC and the 1600 so it isn't a completely reasonable comparison but it's the one I jump to when trying to pick this state championship winner. It might be stupid of me, but I'm picking against Norris in this one.

As mentioned above I have my doubts about Wilson as well, so leaving him out of the conversation that leaves James, Todaro, Kennedy and Martin in my possible winner's circle. Man, this is a tough one. I am a huge fan of James but I pick against him as well here. He is only a sophomore and he will have more chances at this event. This event is usually dominated by Seniors and it takes a truly special soph and a fairly week field to see something other than a senior victory. So I'm not going with James this year for the W.

Now I go back and forth with these 3 guys. Every time I visualize the race I see a new guy who would finish first out of the three of them. Kennedy and Martin have been so close every time that they have raced it's hard to imagine anything different. Martin is fresher now than he was when he beat Kennedy a week ago, but Kennedy has been gaining momentum all year since his injury. But so too has Vinny Todaro who dropped a huge 4:13 1600m a week ago to prove he has one of the top kicks in this field behind Norris. I suspect that this race will be one of the best the state has ever seen, not just in terms of depth, but in terms of competition for the win. So many guys have the potential, but only one guy can wear the gold around his neck.

Ultimately, it is hard to say this with any form of certainty, but I'm taking Vinny Todaro to take the gold medal in this race. I'm a huge fan of Martin and Kennedy here so if one of those two wins I'll regret not going with my gut. And as for Norris, I think if the race is run 10 times he would probably win about 7 and if I was give 5 bucks to bet on anybody it would be Max. Sometimes you just get a feeling and you got to jump on it and that's what I'm doing today.

But this race is far from just being about gold. The race for the other medal spots should be equally compelling. Adam Bodine has made big strides in the past couple weeks and dropped a 9:17 PR. Maybe he has taken the next step to grab a state medal. Sam Webb always sticks his nose in it as does Jeff Groh but both guys will be pulling double duty over the course of the weekend. NA has 3 guys in the race and Matt McGoey is my big sleeper pick here, but again, having the 4x8 to worry about complicates the odds that he has a breakout race. Dominic Deluca is a sub 9:20 man who has proven he can run fast in a talented field. Dan Savage is a very talented 3200m man who was one  of the top finishers indoors in a very competitive 3k and can not be overlooked in this field despite the breakout of his younger teammate. Savage is just as likely as any to surprise for a top 5 finish. Will McDermott has a lot of momentum in his favor coming off a couple of close battles with Kevin James. Reiny Barchet is one of only two guys in the field who have run under 9:10 for 3200m this year. Clearly, he deserves a bit of respect. He also seems to alternate his big races, which means he is due for a big one here at states. And Conner Quinn is one of the few guys in this field who has a state championship. Not to mention the fact that he has an old teammate who has stepped up and won this race before. If anyone knows how to step it up in the post season it is Quinn. Plus you have to throw in Colin Martin into the equation. He is always close behind Ethan and Ethan is one of the top guys in this field.

Not to mention Ean Disilvio of Allerdice and Austin Pondel, the footlocker finalist are in this field seeded way down the list!

This race is incredibly deep and there are legitimately over 20 guys with realistic medal chances. But there can be only 8.

This was easily the toughest event for me to pick and if I predicted in 10 times we would have 10 very different predictions by me. Even now I go back and forth on every posistion for 1st to 21st. But ultimately I have to put something down and here is what I am going with. The times are if the weather is reasonable, I can't imagine the pace won't be fast.

1. Todaro 9:04
2. Norris 9:06
3. Martin 9:07
4. Kennedy 9:09
5. Martin 9:12
6. Wilson 9:13
7. James 9:13
8. Quinn 9:15
9. Savage 9:18
10. McGuoy 9:19
11. Groh 9:21
12. Barchet 9:21
13. McDermott 9:22
14. Deluca 9:23
15. Webb 9:25
16. Stratman 9:25
17. Bodine 9:26
18. Zemet 9:26
19. Pitone 9:28
20. Conrad-Kline 9:28

Man I still have some question marks about where to put some of these guys and I can't even list all the guys who can do damage. These are my picks, but man it's a toss up in a lot of places. Let me know what you think and predict away!

State Predictions: AA 3200m

Hoping to do one of these for all the events. AA stuff is far from my specialty but I'll give it a shot because the races should be sick. None perhaps more so than the 3200m at Ship which will feature some of the most talented AA boys of all time and is highlighted by the two big guns Rico Galassi and Brendan Shearn who have run 9:10 and 9:04 respectively and have qualifying times under 9:20. No disrespect meant to Sam Williams who has been phenomenal this year as well as the other members of this field, I anticipate the winner of this race to be one of these two men.

Both of these boys have ran great this season and both finished 1-2 a year ago in another dramatic race to the finish. Each man has a state title in XC as well. Galassi is going all in for the 32 for the second straight year. He has dropped the 16 to focus on the 32 and be as fresh as possible against Brendan. Galassi has shown that he has the potential to still drop time as he has soloed some of his best efforts of the year, dominating fields and still running fast times. He also has proven he has solid speed, running under 4:20 on multiple occasions for 1600. Meanwhile Shearn is running the 16 and the 32 as he has the past 2 years at the state championship and the 16 has yet to effect his performance as he was 2nd and 1st the last two years. Shearn has big race experience and two state titles and has proven he can close well have a fast pace. One thing Brendan has certainly never lacked is heart and he will lay it all on the line to try and defend his title.

I picked Galassi to win last year and I may have been a year to early on my call, but I'm going with Shearn for the W this year even still. For me Shearn has constantly proved me wrong this year with a big run at indoor states after recovering from injury, a sub 8:30 at Penn and then a 9:04 victory at Henderson. I see this one being quite close, but I see Shearn, ultimately, coming out on top for the second straight year.

After the big two there is still plenty of talent in this group. Sam Williams, who comes in with a 9:12 PR, is my pick for third. Sam is a strong runner and I fully expect him to stick his nose in this race throughout. He is easily the most likely candidate to disrupt the big Shearn v. Galassi duel.

These are kind of the big 3 names in this group but also in the mix out front should be a pack that includes Luke Jones, Barrett Kemp, Griffin Molino, Aaron Valoroso, Ryan Archer and Kieran Sutton. Jones is an established XC stud who dominates the trails and shows up at states. Barrett Kemp had a bit of a down year last track season but has come back with a vengenance and quietly has run some very solid 32s under 9:30. Valoroso was a big story with a few low 9:20s marks but was off a bit at districts. I expect him to bounce back this weekend. Ryan Archer was an indoor state qualifier and is a defending medalist who should stick his nose in it. Griffin Molino is the youngster of the group. Just a sophomore he has gradually dropped time and stuck his nose in it with Sam Williams last weekend and came away with a big PR of 9:26. I like this kid, he is young, but not afraid of the moment. Sometimes being young and blissfully unaware is a great gift on the big stage.

There are a lot of other guys who's names I don't know as well who could definitely step up in the big moment. Jeremy Parsons from Maplewood is a nice sleeper. Any district 2 guys could sneak up in there and grab a medal and the District 7 guys are definitely underrated just because I don't really recognize names.

Ultimately when the dust clears here is how I see the medal positions being filled. I expect a bit of a tactical performance in the heat with a very fast last mile so who knows how close the times will be but here is what I got.

1. Shearn 9:09
2. Galassi 9:11
3. Williams 9:21
4. Molino 9:24
5. Kemp 9:26
6. Valoroso 9:29
7. Jones 9:32
8. Archer 9:38

Haupt, Sutton, McGuire, and Parsons stand out as names that could surprise. Leave your predictions below and let me know what you think!

Quick Recap

I'm pumped to have a big state preview as we get closer to game day but for now I'm just going to give a little recap of my thoughts on all the district action.

District 1
The 4x8 was very entertaining. Major props to North Penn who dropped a sub 8 relay without Macauley and I think Johnston was also in a boot. This school just knows how to churn out relays and they did it without their best guys this weekend. That's impressive. Bensalem dominated and they look great. Besides Bensalem and maybe Pennsbury (even though Webb had an amazing double this weekend I still worry about how effective he will be at states trying that), I'm not too sold on any of these 4x8s grabbing medals at states. Cheltenham would be the only team that I could see sneaking in their with a good day.

In the 1600m, we are seeing the beginnings of something big with Kevin Moy. He ran 4:16.0 for 4th in a very talented field and has made strong improvements from week to week for some time now. His kick is very dangerous and he could definitely surprise some people next week. Huemmler and Russell looked very comfortable, both guys have room to drop. Great race by Harriman on the double. He was having a bit of a rough patch for a few weeks but he come big when it counted in both the 4x8 where he had a very solid lead off split and now the 16. Curtis Watro is also running very well, dropping a 4:17 PR is huge.

Tom Seykora is AA sleeper in the 16 he looked very in control.

In the 800m Rivera kept it fast, but Wiseman was just too strong and he looks very good so far. He has no relay duties either which is huge. Logue needs to be more agressive if he is going to finish high at states. He kinda waited a bit too long it seemed, but he may have been saving until next week. There is potential here given his kick. Cox-Finn runs 1:55! Sick sign for the Bensalem 4x8. Nice to see Yannacone back in the mix. I was wrong about his strength at this point and I am very happy to be wrong. Props to the other Upper Merion man, Austin Cooper who had an impressive weekend but unfortunately will not move on to states.

In the 3200m, I think Norris and maybe Barchet were holding back for next weekend, but they both looked at least a little uncomfortable. But hey, if you running low 9:20s pace you are going to be uncomfortable. Wilson continues to go strong, but this marks his 4th straight hard effort over 3200m, can he hold on for one more race? He shows no signs of slowing down right now. Adam Bodine had a huge day, but he has been an under the radar talent all year. He had this in him for some time. Nice races by Chris Berry and Chris Coates. My heart goes out for all those guys who hit the time but didn't get in.  I obviously have a close attachment to that with Francis falling victim.

District 2
Rico Galassi ran surprisingly hard in that 32, but so did Shearn so I guess it's no big deal. I hope he throws his hat in the 16 as well, the kid is a real talent. District 2 has a lot of solid AA guys so keep an eye on all of them next week. In AAA, Alex Nole looks great, he should be able to drop into the 1:53s at states. Fetterman ran a great race to get in over 3200m, major props to him for a big PR.

District 3
Link to Results: http://piaadistrict3.org/2012-2013-district-3-mt-bank-track-field-championship-results/
How about Zach Brehm this weekend? He really worked hard for his squad this weekend running a sick 9:18, running hard on a 7:52, apparently running a 4:13ish before the DQ and then dropping a 1:55. Wow. Hope he isn't too tired to perform well at states next year, he's just a sophomore.

Vinny Todaro looks fantastic. He won the 32 relatively easily, but really showed off his stuff running 4:13 in the 1600m. Todaro looks great and next weekend should be someone to watch.

Props to District 3 who looked like a real powerhouse district this year. 9 guys hit the SQS in the 16 not including Brehm who was DQd. Groh ran very nice on the double as did Nissley. Good weekend for Nissley. The 4x8 featured 7 teams at 8 flat or faster. D3 can do damage in the 4x8.

Nice PRs for guys like Calvin-Conrad Kline (9:26), Aaron Lauer (4:21), and Harrison Schettler (4:15). Gotta like what Schettler has been doing. Alec Kunzweiler's 1:51 is killer. The kid is an easy favorite in the 800m and in a fresh 800m at season's end in good conditions the guy could be under 1:50.

In AA, Anville Celona looks sick. Killer 4x8 and big time anchor in Wolfe (1:54.39). Plus they had a sub 49 man in the open 400.

District 4
Curt Jewett had a nice very nice double gold in the 8 and 16. Curious to see if he will try the double at states. Might be fun to watch. Bobby Hill ran 4:27 and was 5th at the meet. That's some depth for D4 AA. They had 7 guys in the 16 under the SQS.

Watch out for Herb Steeley. He has been running solid all year and dropped into the 1:56s for the first time when he dominated the field at districts in AAA.

Sam Williams wasn't blessed with the opportunity to coast in the 32 this weekend as Griffin Molino continues to run like a stud. Wow a nice 9:26 for him. Williams, of course, was money himself running 9:24, he can roll. But this 32 took a bit out of him, he ran 4:28 for 6th in the 16 final. We will see if he tries both at states, he was a medalist in both a year ago.

Aaron Valoroso and Bobby Hill both sleeper picks to drop time at states.

How about the 4x8s? South Williamsport with Griffin Molino surprises with a 7:58 and Northeast Bradford runs 8:08, they can drop time. It will be interesting to see how the 32-4x8 double factors in to these teams championship hopes. Williamsport Area in AAA has been my sleeper pick all year. They dropped a solo 7:55 in the relay this weekend which is very exciting for them. Should be a dangerous team with competition.

District 6
The State College boys looked great in the relay, that's where they have to focus up this year because they can do some damage. Surprise 1:55 from Sean Gipson of Bellefonte for a big win. Jon Colwell looks good, we will see if he has the raw speed to compete at 1600m at states. He had a pair of nice wins. Altoona 7:54? Wow, didn't know they had that in them! Fantastic run for those boys who are suddenly in contention for a state medal.

District 7
Props to Ethan Martin for making me look good as he took down double gold and beat out his big rival Brent Kennedy. Colin Martin continues to improve after dropping time in the 16. I'd like to see them all focus up on the 32 for states as a trio and drop the 16, but if Ethan wants to try it I won't knock him. I was pleasantly surprised to see NA win that 4x8. Didn't see that coming, but they ran fantastic to grab the W. I still think there is a lot of potential for Kiski. Great job by Nate Sloan in that 1600m to break 4:20. Chris Culley should be dangerous on fresh legs, he ran 1:56 on the double. The D7 800m guys are starting to come into their own. Smith looks real good and props to JG for calling Smail's big day.

District 8
DiSilvio is the only distance man to watch out of this group. 3200m is probs his best bet at competing with the state's best.

District 9
Watch out for Barrett Kemp in the 3200m at states. He could really surprise. Aziz Yousif is no slouch either.

District 10
Interesting to see Jaskowak drop the 3200m. It's not a bad move all things considered, so I'm excited to see if he can return to 4:17/1:55 form with ideal competition at states. Good to see Pondel back, but still a lot of question marks about what kind of shape he is in.

Smathers rolled this weekend. He looks the sharpest he has looked in some time and he will have his hands full with Curt Jewett. If Jewett does not run the 4x8, Smathers and Jewett may push each other to something very impressive. I can't wait because both of these guys are not afraid of a fast pace.

District 11
Shearn and Galassi soloed under 9:20! That race is going to epic.

District 11 doesn't have many sleepers in my mind, but Parkland's 4x8 could be a deep sleeper and Colin Abert may surprise and sneak into the 1600m finals after his 4:21. Those would be the guys I'd keep tabs on for next weekend.

District 12
O'Hara is putting their chips in the 4x8. I like it. They could be the surprise team in the mix out front with Bensalem and CValley. James continues to roll, but McDermott also continues to look great. He ran 9:22ish and 4:20 this weekend and has to be feeling confident in his abilities. He is a legit medal threat and heck Kevin James is a threat to take down the state title.

As I mentioned earlier in a comment, thrilled to see Magee and Sullivan qualify in that open 8. Great exclamation point to their season, they have been great relay guys this year.

Stone and Coyle could just kind of coast this weekend. Both have to be in the state title talks but neither guy really has a crazy impressive mark to boast this season, but both guys show up in the championship season. Will the rest help or hurt come states? We will find out!

More Districts!

I'm back home folks and I have punched my metaphorical ticket to the district one championships on friday. See some of you homies then.

Wow I can't believe I just said homies, let's pretend that didn't happen and get to the district preview work.

Also to whoever said they could get updates I'd love them if you are willing to post them up.

I'm going to make this post a preview for the following three districts:
District 7
District 3
District 1

I'm sorry for the limited amount of coverage, I know that's lame but I just don't have the time to put together more than this at the moment. I'm also trying to keep my posts relatively small and readable.

 If you would like me to do another district, I encourage you to comment on here and I will see what I can do time permitting. D12 should be good but it is mostly just PCL squads and D11 and D6 should provide a few sleeper picks in the AAA races and D4 and D11 should provide a lot of studs in the AA race.

But on to the glory districts.

District 7
Favorites (in no particluar order)
800m: James Smith, Billy Dougherty, Ryan Lee, Dylan Wilhoite, Tyler Palenchak, Patrick Miller, Mike Becich, Mike Mizzanti, Chris Culley, Brett Foster, Thomas Reinhardt

There are a lot of wild cards in this race for sure. The WPIAL always manages to churn out a few solid 800m guys and had the surprise state champ a year ago in Wil Bailey. I don't think this district has any legit state title hopefuls but I do believe that one or two state meet finalists will reprsent District 7. Dylan Wilhoite has got to be one of the favorites to do that. He has run some solid marks in the low 1:56s and I think he could drop to 1:54-1:55 in the coming weeks. He runs for Penn Hills who has had some pretty good guys in the past like that state champ Wil Bailey. I also really like Mike Becich. Maybe it is the NA jersey he is wearing but the guy has got some talent. Vinny Tonzo from NA was one of the big guns of the race a year ago. Should be another Penn Hills v. NA race out front. Gotta watch out for Chris Culley who ran 1:56 a year ago and made states (if he is doubling I'm not sure he will run quite as fast but we will see) and James Smith who has run in the 1:56s this year. Some wildcard will likely step up and snag the SQS but it will be tight for sure.

1600m: Jonathan Weese, Tyler Snider, Tyler Palenchak, Nate Edenfield, Luke Schott, Ethan Martin, Nathan Sloan, Thomas Reinhardt, Colin Martin, Scott Slaney, Anton Martinez

It's hard to say who is going to get the 4 auto-spots in my mind. Ethan Martin should be able to coast and win this race in my personal opinion. He is certainly the most talented guy in terms of PRs and big wins and this sport is about momentum, which he has a lot of. I do like Nathan Sloan from Hampton though, he could mix it up well here and should make states. I go back and forth on Colin. He hasn't shown quite as much promise in the 16 as his brother has but he has plenty of talent and all he needs to do is run 4:22ish and he should get 3rd, I'm not seeing a lot of depth in this race. Edenfield and Schott are two possible sleepers in this race and even Anton Martinez and Scott Slaney could do slip in there. I definitely expect Thomas Reinhardt to get to states, he should be under 4:24 and is likely a top 4 guy most days in this race.

3200m: Seamus Roddy, Patrick Quirk, Jared Pollock, Brent Kennedy, Jon Faye, Ethan Martin, Colin Martin, Brian Shields, Caleb Wakeley, Josh Zemet, Matt McGoey, Cordon Luoco

Wow! This I expect to be the race of the day without a doubt, perhaps the race of the weekend. Kennedy will be relatively fresh when he toes off with Ethan Martin in a showdown of two outstanding juniors. Both guys could push each other under 9:10 and drag a lot of guys with them. I'm a huge Kennedy fan and I think he is starting to get healthy and that is bad news for a doubling Martin, but I have seen great stuff from Martin this year and I'm picking Ethan to take down the win and a pair of golds. Kennedy may get him back come states, but I haven't decided. Both guys are straight studs.

Behind these two is the guy who often gets overlooked, Colin Martin who has been consistently solid and has dropped a lot of time throughout the year. Unlike Ethan, Colin has had more of a tendency to start slow and drop a lot of time as the season progresses. He has struggled to beat Ethan, but maybe this is the race? If both guys are doubling I'm not sure what to expect, but I'm banking on a big 1600m Pr for Colin which sets him back a bit in this race. He will still get to states in my mind just won't be up with the other two competing for victory.

This may be the race that Matt McGoey surprises some people. I think he could beat Colin in this race for sure and dip under 9:20. He and Zemet have a great shot at qualifying for states. As mentioned Brain Shields is a very talented runner. He should get a nice PR at districts and I think he could be a big, big sleeper at outdoor states as he continues to build confidence and momentum. Jon Faye is a nice sleeper here, he has solid marks in the past including a trip to states last year. Who knows what you will get out of the Lebo guys? But there is always talent there, maybe a sleeper sneaks in a fast time outta that school.

4x800m: NA, Seneca Valley, Kiski, Norwin, Gateway, Canon-Mac
This race seems fairly one sided in my mind. Kiski, if they put their A team on the track, should dominate this race. This team is still waiting to showcase their true talent. Basically this same crew ran 7:50 last year and I think they can go even faster this year with the pieces they have, but that won't be til states. I like Gateway's pieces a lot. Big sleeper here for a sub 8 minute mark and an outside chance at competing to qualify for the finals at states. NA is unpredictable here but with their A team they should get to states no problem. But I don't know if they will put out the A team. Norwin is solid as well, they  hung tough with Kiski last week.

District 3
Performance List: http://piaadistrict3.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/2013-TRACK-B-AAA-SEEDS1.pdf
3200m
Gosh what a toss up of guys here. Obviously out front this is a 3 man race. Groh has been fantastic since indoors but Todaro has gotta be the favorite here with his terrific 9:15 mark. Todaro is just starting to get healthy and round into top shape after a breakout XC season. I am betting on Vinny here. Jeff should take down second and Nissley should be third, but I say that with a bit less confidence. Nissley is very good but a little bit more unpredictable than Groh who is a super talent.

This still leaves 2 free spots to states even without time. The group chasing it will include Gebhardt, Martin, Savaegeau, Reilly, Bitner, Corcoran, Brehm, Coburn, Hamilton, Conrad-Kline, and Demko. Now I don't expect all those guys to run it but they are all qualifiers. I'd scratch out Brehm and Coburn at least and maybe the Hershey guys as well. For me Gebhardt has been waiting for a chance like this to break out if he can rise to the occassion. Savagaeu is very good even though I can't spell his name, I also like Conrad-Kline. But Corcoran for me is the guy here. He should get one of the 5 auto spots to states and maybe will surpise with a sub 9:30 again. That's his PR. I don't see more than 5 guys making it outta d3 in this event.

1600m
This event is a bit trickier to predict who will run than the 32. In my mind I see Kunzweiler as the only sure fire pull out of the group. Brehm is second most likely for me, I don't think it is wise for him to try the 4x8, 16 and open 8 but he without a doubt could make states in all 3. But I think Brehm is 1:52 kind of talent in the 800m if he runs it fresh at states. If he ends up fresh in that race, he would be my sleeper pick for the title. It's early, but we have yet to see his best work.

But to the actual race. I expect to see the 3200m guys back for a shot at the spot even though I am not sure Todaro would run both at states. This race is very deep with guys like Schettler, Groh, Todaro, Coburn, Sankey, Brehm, Mueller, Conrad-Kline, Nissley, and Corcoran all under the SQS. I'd love to make a bold statement here and pick a winner, but it is hard for me to say at this point because it is unclear who will be doubling where. I like Todaro if he is feeling good after the 32 to take the win, but Sankey and Mueller are sleeper picks for a big time drop and a win. If Brehm is in the race fresh he is my pick but I'm thinking he goes 4x8 before hand. Schettler is very talented as well, but I'm worried about him doubling back from the 4x8 as well so I'm not sure he can take down the gold here. If he's fresh he will compete and maybe surprise for the win.

800m
The 800m should be very exciting and the guy to watch is Alec Kunzweiler. He in my mind has been severely overlooked by this blog as of late (myself included) and has not gotten his due for running fantastically over the past few weeks. He dropped a 1:54 low in rough, rough weather recently and has perfectly executed the 4x8-8 double countless times. I was a little worried about him at the beginning of outdoors but he has come on strong since. His indoor season was fantastic considering his previous indoor season before his 1:51 was 1:57high ish and no state medals. The guy will be peaking at the right time and has to be the favorite to drop a pair of 1:51s come states. He should handle this field this weekend.

Brehm is the name to watch down the line. Just a sophomore, Brehm is very talented at 800m, I expect him to be #2 here. Like I said, he could surprise if fresh at states. A guy who is doubling at states always has a shot at blowing up and if that happens to someone like Alec then Brehm can certainly step in and steal a win.

Caleb Gatchell is certainly a name worth noting in this race. We will see how he handles the double from the 4x8, but I think he has enough time to show off his talents in this race and surprise some people. Coburn is also a talent here if he doesn't run the 16 and instead goes 800 he will compete here. Again, I only see 5 guys qualifying for states out of this event.

4x800m
The 4x8 at District 3 is always one of the biggest surprises for me. Cedar Crest, McCaskey, Chambersburg and CV are just some of the teams over the past few years that have dropped huge times at this meet. CV should be able to cruise to victory. They are clearly the best team in this field. But behind them the race is very interesting. Carlisle has Brehm anchoring and some solid pieces all around. Then Red Lion has Caleb Gatchell and a few other underrated guys fighting to prove themselves. Penn Manor, led by the 4:18 man Schettler, have a slew of sub 2 guys that shouldn't be overlooked as well. I really like this Penn Manor team and have been talking them up for a bit on here.

But there is also Central Dauphin and new surprise Cedar Crest who dropped an 8 flat mark already this year. Hershey was an XC surprise this year and could be a 4x8 surprise at this meet with some talented guys on the roster. This race could be historic in terms of depth and sub 8 teams. I can't wait to see how this unfolds with the slew of talent across the board in this event, all the teams are separated by only a few seconds here or there.

I just hope CV stays out of trouble and doesn't get hit and fall or drop the baton or anything in this competitive race. I still think they gotta consider changing up the order to work Coburn into the 2nd spot for states.

District One
This meet will be tough to predict who runs what but I'll give it my best shot.
4x800
Here are my predictions for the 12 teams that will make finals:
Bensalem, Pennsbury, Cheltenham, Pennridge, CB East, CB South, DT East, Perk Valley, North Penn, Penncrest, Upper Darby, Downingtown West

Close: West Chester East, Upper Dublin, Abington, Radnor?, Penn Wood? (will they run hot?)

I predict that Henderson, Methacton, CRN, DTWest, Upper Merion, Strath Haven and Great Valley among others will not put their A team on the track in the event.

Plenty of room for changing here however. I feel that if every single team in D1 put their best possible relay on the track we could have roughly 24 teams under the SQS. It's just not fair. To make finals it is going to take close to 8 flat it seems. Now things could get a little easier if teams like Pennsbury and Pennridge who I have making it in pull out their top guns in favor of individuals. But teams like Henderson and Methacton could easily complicate matters by throwing their A team in. Abington is another team that could jump in the mix as a sleeper pick.

Pennsbury is just so difficult to call here. They have individual potential for sure. I really like their relay as well. Webb and Harriman gotta be thinking 32 or maybe 16 and either of those events are tough to qualify for with a hard 4x8 thrown in there. Very tough to guess where they will be.

In the finals, I see Bensalem running away with this one, they should be able to coast a bit to a win which will help. But Pennridge could surprise if Logue is going all out and chasing when he gets the baton. Pennsbury is a solid team, but I think Cheltenham is also very dangerous with Jon Lewis on the squad. Ultimately all these teams are solid, somewhere around 7:55ish potential, but it will be a matter of who rises to the occassion and breaks free. Very few teams have more than one stud on their roster for this relay which complicates things. I like DT East here as a sleeper, I'm a Caldwell fan and I think this team has been growing well throughout the season.

My 8 teams headed to states (I do believe it will be 8 in all the distance events) in no particular order:
Bensalem, Pennsbury, Pennridge, Penncrest, DT East, CB East, CB South, Upper Darby

1600m
Here are my predicted 12 finalists:
Huemmler, Francis, Zingarini, Stratman, Kardish, Scarpato, Pearlman, Leidal, Harriman, Ferruzzi, Hanson, Hare

It's tricky to predict this event because it's hard to guess who is running the 4x8 and who is not and then on top of that who is pulling out of the race. I think Russell, Wilson, Logue, Webb, Moy and Rivera among others are pulling out of this event which leave things quite wide open. Again things are tricky because I am trying to guess quite a lot of factors here, but this is a very tentative guess.

In the finals I have to think Huemmler will destroy the field if he is healthy but I haven't seen much of him lately so there are no guarentees that will be the case. If he is not at 100% and Ken Leidal is running a fresh race and no 4x8 the guy may be quite the sleeper pick in this race. Harriman too with fresh legs is dangerous. Zingarini has had a bit of a rough patch but he has the talent to win this race, he has yet to win the big win in his career, maybe this is his time. A lot of guys with potential to break out. Francis I think will be too tired to really compete hard up front but he should get into states. Kardish is a big sleeper here as well. He has run some great times over the years and he could be 4:16ish this meet. Pearlman, the sophomore, is a sleeper here as well for a roughly 4:20 flat time. Curtis Watro, if fresh, could get in the finals and compete well. Also gotta look for the WCE guys if they are fresh: Crump and Diestelow.

My 8 guys headed to states (very tricky here with all the doubling in place) again no particular order:
Huemmler, Francis, Zingarini, Leidal, Kadish, Stratman, Pearlman, Harriman

800m
Here are my predicted 12 finalists:
Wiseman, Logue, Moy, Caldwell, Rivera, Garton, Hunter, Yannacone, Sanders, Lewis, Huemmler, Holm

There are lots of guys in this race who could surprise and jump inside my top 12, but these are my tentative picks here. In the finals, I like Wiseman to run away from this field and dominate. If Sanders and Huemmler too are healthy they could both be in the mix for the title. Joe Logue, if he does not run the 4x8 all out, will challenge for the win as well. I would love to see Rivera, Logue, Wiseman and Sanders all reunite as the top 4 guys from indoor states could push each other to something impressive. I think it will be Wiseman who takes down the victory out of this group this time around, but Logue should give him all he can handle. Rivera will have to be doubling but I expect him to round out the top 3 despite the tough double that he will almost certainly have. Moy is very dangerous if he is not running the 4x8. He has been a roll as of late. Christian Hunter and Steve Yannacone are the big sleepers of this group. Both almost definitely will be fresh and both have run solid marks with potential to drop. Yannacone is the defending champ which you can't forget.

Ultimately this race should take mid 1:55s to make states at least and I think, assuming all parties are healthy the top 8 are:
Wiseman, Logue, Moy, Rivera, Sanders, Huemmler, Hunter, Caldwell

3200m
Well by this point of writing I am quite perplexed about who is running where but here is what I think.
A fresh Norris, Russell, Barchet and Wilson will control this race, but Conner Quinn should also be up in the mix. If Pennsbury really goes 4x8 I can't imagine seeing Harriman and maybe Webb but they have another guy they could sub for Webb and let him run this race.

Norris should put things on cruise control, knowing next week is the big week, but the pack won't let him just jog along. There are a lot of talented guys in this race that will need to keep it honest so they can take their shot at getting to states. Here is the group I expect to be in the mix (assuming Macauley and Emery scratch from injury/sickness)
Russell, Wilson, Barchet, Webb, Quinn, Bodine, Collins, Berry, Kazanjian, Cummings, Norris, Kazanjian and maybe Brophy

Ultimately only 8 guys can make it to states and I expect that group to be:
Russell, Wilson, Barchet, Quinn, Bodine, Norris, Berry, Webb/Kazanjian (depending on whether Webb runs this race or the 4x8)

It's hard to say who will win, but I think most of the top guys are looking past this weekend so I don't expect it to be a furious race for the win. More than likely Norris will kick his way to victory but Wilson and Quinn may beat out Barchet and Russell if they are saving up for states. Not sure what the status of Russell is because of those rumors about his heatlh but I gotta imagine the kid is fine at this point and he should be good to go in this race. I like Bodine in this race, he has been consistently solid in the 32 all year. Berry and Kazanjian are nice sleepers here. Both need to pop off that big race and this weekend could be the perfect opportunity.