States Predictions: AA 1600m

I was waiting to previews for the non 3200m distance events because I wanted to see how the heats lined up. In my mind that plays a big factor in those 6-12 placing spots because running a hard trial heat the day before can wear on you, especially if you are doing a lot of doubling or tripling in the heat.

So in the AA 1600m, I've looked over the heat sheets and I've got some speculation on who will get through the first day.
In heat one I see Curt Jewett, Sean Walker, Bobby Hill and Tom Seykora taking the 4 auto spots. I'm probably a little biased on Seykora because I watched him run last weekend, but he looked very in control in that race and I'm banking on a big day for him. Hill has run 4:19 this year, he was off at districts but I see him bouncing back. Walker and Jewett were studs at the D4 meet and I believe they are talented enough to get through. My only worry for Jewett (and Williams later on) is if they try to go for the 4x8 they are going to be worn fairly thin.

In heat two I got Smathers, Shearn, Reno and Rigby getting the auto qualifying spots. Shearn and Smathers are talented guys who have made the finals the past two years without issue while Reno and Rigby are talented guys out of D7. Rigby had a killer indoors and I'm hoping he will return to form at the outdoor state meet.

That leaves 4 qualifying spots up for grabs. If Williams is not running the 4x8 (which I speculate that he and Jewett will not run) he should be one of the 4 qualifiers. With him I expect Brady Wilt, Sebastin Curtin and Andrew Steely to get through. District 4 has so many talented guys it is hard to pick which ones will rise to the occassion and which will not, but clearly the D4 guys were in a competitive race a week ago with a guy out front to pull them along so the potential to drop time is a bit less than some of the other guys in other districts.

Now in the finals, I think Jewett and Smathers are clearly the top guys in this field. Williams and Shearn will be fairly tired after the 32 and Hill is the only other guy under 4:20 this year outdoors. After the top 2 medal spots, I think things are fairly up for grabs.

If the race is like last year's Smathers and Jewett will push from the gun and see how fast they can go. Jewett has already had good experience going out hard at Henderson and Penn Relays and has proven he can run very fast times. Smathers, however, is the defending state champion. Smathers did get outkicked by Martin a bit earlier this year, but Jewett strikes me more as a strength kicker than speed kicker. If these guys both are going for it from the gun, it will be a matter of who holds on better, but if one decides to settle in and work off the other, they will be able to win. That being said, that's easier said than done. If you let things get tactical I think a big move from Jewett at around 800m could win the race, but Smathers I believe would win if things stay slow until 1200.

Ultimately, I think this race is fast and these guys run gutsy, and I think Curt Jewett hangs on for the upset victory over Smathers. I see those guys as a clear cut 1-2. Behind them I'm going big on Tyler Rigby out of District 7. I am hoping to see a return to his form indoors, I like what I saw from him there. Then I have to expect Bobby Hill to step up and return to form.

After this I think Reno will hold on against Williams and Shearn. Both of those guys are going to be so tired after running all out in the 32 with chances to win and definitely end up top 3. Williams doubled better than Shearn a year ago, but in the oppressive heat it could have gone either way. I think Shearn does a better job bouncing back this year in cooler weather, but I can't go too bold on him because he will have to work hard to beat Galassi. He has a better chance of doing well in the 16 if he loses the 32 (which as mentioned earlier I don't think will happen).

Here is how I ultimately see the 1600 finishing up:
1. Jewett 4:14
2. Smathers 4:15
3. Rigby 4:20
4. Hill 4:21
5. Reno 4:23
6. Shearn 4:24
7. Williams 4:24
8. Walker 4:25

Times are fairly speculative here, there is potential for those to be blown out of the water.