The relays are easily my favorite event to watch at states, but naturally they are one of the hardest to predict. Who will run on which relay? How much will be saved or sacrificed for individual events? The nice thing is it is the first race of the weekend so in the qualifying heats everybody is fresh.
So who is getting through to the finals? Well in my mind out of heat 1 I see Trinity, South Williamsport, Lake View and Souther Columbia Area. Now I am far from an expert on AA 4x8s, but I know that Trinity has been very strong in this event throughout the entire time I have been following the state meet and I expect them to get through the first round. South Williamsport comes in with a seed time miles ahead of the field. I don't think they will have a big issue getting through the rounds either. Lake View was a fairly comfortable district champion who I think may have time to drop and Southern Columbia was just another fast seeded team that I saw potential in. I feel in the AA 4x8 there are fairly clear cut levels of ability.
In Heat 2 I predict Anville Celona, Lakeland, Northeast Bradford, and Wyomissing will get in. Wyomissing is a lot like Trinity because they are farily consistent AA program that turns out good 4-8 talent. Northeast Bradford, I believe, is running hot enough to get through the first round. Lakeland in my mind is an underrated team out of district 2. They have some solid guys and should get through. And Anville Celona is a heavy favorite in this race and I would be incredibly surprised if they didn't make it out of the rounds.
Taking the final four spots in the final I got Masterman, Freedom Area, Boiling Springs and Oswayo Valley. Oswayo Valley is a bit of a question mark here because it is hard to say whether Barrett Kemp will join the squad or save up for the 32. I think there is enough time for him to run both without much issue in terms of the prelims and the 32 finals. The 4x8 finals, as everyone knows, will be a tough one to run. Masterman has been an under the radar squad for some time and hopefully learned something from Keaton Naff a year ago. Boiling Springs has a great anchor which should help them get through the rounds and Freedom was the D7 champion and D7 usually performs well at states so I threw them in.
Looking ahead to the finals, doubling becomes an issue. You have guys like Sam Williams, Griffin Molino and Barrett Kemp who will have the 32 in their legs as well as Shawn Wolfe who will have tripled the day before. A lot of other relays will have had runners in the individual events including Masterman, Lakeland, Southern Columbia, Wyomissing, Boiling Springs, and Trinity.
So in this war of attrition who will come out on top?
Well Annville Celona in my mind has got the W. Wolfe and Mason (sub 49 open 4) look incredibly strong and Wolfe on the anchor in itself should be enough to get this team around the track sub 8 minutes and that may be good enough to take the victory. Behind them, things are pretty up for grabs. I think that South Williamsport has the best shot at second but having Molino double like that really worries me. I'm not positive as just a sophomore he will be able to give them a strong leg on the 4x8. I like Lakeland a lot as well, Arzie is a really strong guy to have on the anchor. But he is just a sophomore and this is a big moment for a sophomore to take on. If NE Bradford was definitely going to have an A team of Williams, Jewett, Snyder and one more then I'd be on board with this squad for 2nd, but that is far from guarenteed given what I have seen from their other entries.
Ultimately I suppose I have to make some picks here so I'll give it my best shot but don't be surprised if I'm quite wrong on the predictions here.
1. Anville Celona 7:54
2. South Williamsport 8:00
3. Lakeland 8:01
4. Wyomissing 8:02
5. Trinity 8:02
6. NE Bradford 8:04
7. Southern Columbia 8:04
8. Lakeview 8:07
No comments:
Post a Comment