State Predictions: AAA 4x800m

Oh my goodness. Your guess is as good as mine here. An incredible amount of depth and a lot of hard running is going to go down in both trials and finals to get this done and that is going to make things very fun for us but very nerve racking for the runners and even the favorites in this field.

But I suppose I have to try and predict it ... Don't judge me too harshly if these are way off because it could go a lot of different ways. Here we go.

Out of Heat 1 I see the 4 auto qualifiers as follows: CValley, Pennsbury, O'Hara and Red Lion
This heat is filled with some of my favorite sleeper pick teams and some of the best overall teams and that is going to make it very hard for even great teams like CV to make it out of these rounds in one piece. It probably will take around 7:50-52 to get an auto qualifying spot comfortably. CV is obviously the favorite and Kunzweiler will get the team into the finals. Pennsbury has a lot of very nice pieces and with 4 fresh legs they shouldn't have too much of an issue getting through to the finals on talent. O'Hara is the big sleeper here, they have a lot of under the radar talent. Red Lion has been a very strong team all this year, I like their pieces and I'm banking on them rising to the moment with a big anchor and a big relay PR to make it past day 1.

Out of Heat 2 I got Carlisle, State College, Bensalem and Cheltenham
This heat is very tricky. I don't think it is quite as talented as the first heat and Bensalem should be able to run fairly relaxed and get in to the finals to set up a Penn Relays rematch. I'm a big State College fan. All the SC guys have only this race to worry about, it means everything to them and I think that pays off. Carlisle has Brehm on the anchor and Brehm on fresh legs is scary to me. They have solid legs in front of him and Brehm should bring it home. Cheltenham is one of about 4 teams in this race that I think could take the last spot. I have seen them run great at various meets this season, they have always risen to the occasion  They haven't broken through for that low 7:50s mark, but this weekend may be the weekend.

What other 4 do I think will get in? Well I have Kiski, Williamsport Area, CB East and North Allegheny. I'm not sure how I feel about NA at this race, I really didn't think they had 7:54 in them at all. I threw them in the finals because they have proved me wrong already this year so why not again. CB East has been a solid team all year. I think they can still drop more time from last week and they will need to to get in. Williamsport is the big sleeper all year, I have to ride them all the way through to the finals. Kiski is another one of my teams that I have backed all year and I feel obligated to back them. They have much more talent than 7:56 in my mind.

Teams left out include Altoona who certainly could make it through to the finals. I worry a bit about their star power to have an anchor to bring it home, but they ran strong against State College last weekend so maybe they will surprise again. DT East is a team I really like, but Caldwell carried them last weekend. The other legs need to step up, but if they do, they could sneak into the finals. Penncrest is always a strong team, they are consistently in the mix to make finals. I, again, am skeptical of their fire power to mix it up with the other anchors in this race who are big names in a lot of cases, but if somebody steps up to become a 1:55-56 type it's a different ball game.

Now to the finals. The battle out front should be between Cumberland Valley and Bensalem, but I really think Cardinal O'Hara has the potential to be right there. If Kevin James was on this relay I would be picking O'Hara to become state champions, but without James I am a little worried about the inconsistency of some of the O'Hara legs on the relay. I also worry about Smart or Belfatto or whoever anchors matching up against Francis and Kunzweiler who are 1:51 splits at states almost without a doubt.

In the match up with Bensalem and CV, it is going to be key for Rivera to dominate on the lead off leg. As I have mentioned I'm not a huge fan of either squads order, but I assume by this point they aren't going to make any changes. Bensalem is better on paper without a doubt. CV's front 2 legs have not posted times that match up with Cox Finn and Rivera and Francis on paper are better than Coburn and Kunzweiler.

However, if Rivera only leads off in 1:55ish like he did at districts, they give CV a chance to stay in it during the opening legs. Bensalem has to keep the pace fast and try and bury CV's lead off leg in the pack. If they do that they leave a tough job for the rest of the CV boys. The big leg will be Coburn v. Cox-Finn. It is likely that Cox-Finn will be out front with probably a team like Pennsbury (if Webb can hang on at all after that 32) and Cheltenham (if they run Lewis 2nd as they have in the past) while CV will be back a bit depending on how much their first two legs step up. Coburn is going to need a 1:53ish mark to catch his squad back up. He is definitely capable of it. If CV and Bensalem give off to the anchors at the same time, I'm betting on Kunzweiler. He has a 1:50ish split in his legs without a doubt and he was unbelievably clutch a year ago. But Francis is no joke and he will be relatively fresh, hopefully fresher than Penn Relays.

Ultimately, I expect Francis to have enough of a lead that he can hold of Kunzweiler, but it should be close once again. I really like CV but I'm picking Bensalem to pull this one out because I do believe they have 3 very strong legs and I think that will be enough.

Behind these teams I like State College and O'Hara to battle it out. Both can definitely run under 7:50 in the 4x8 and both are focused on this relay and this relay alone. That is huge in my mind and they will run very well. Behind them a big leg from Brehm could get Carlisle in the mix or if Cheltenham finally breaks out they will be in the mix for sub 7:50. Pennsbury is a great team here with Sauer and Harriman to lead them. They need O'Connell to have a bit of a step up day, he has struggled a bit as of late but I know he has a huge split in him waiting to happen. Of course Webb will be the key. Just a young sophomore that double on a hot day at states is going to be brutal. He will get the baton out front with the leaders most likely given Harriman's racing this year, but can Webb hang on or will he blow up? That is the difference between a sub 7:50 effort for Pennsbury and being left off the medal stand. I worry about both Kiski and NA considering the guys they have in the 32 and in the individual events. I like Red Lion a lot as mentioned above, but I am worried they will have gone too hard in the trials to make an impact here in the finals. Williamsport is a sleeper of course, but I'm not sure if they are 7:51 good. Time will tell I suppose. CB East has nice pieces as has been mentioned. They need to have a good weekend, but they could be in the medal mix.

Ultimately it is time to post up the predictions. Here is what I got.
1. Bensalem 7:43
2. Cumberland Valley 7:44
3. O'Hara 7:48
4. State College 7:49
5. Carlisle 7:51
6. Pennsbury 7:51
7. Cheltenham 7:52
8. CB East 7:54

I think Red Lion will run around 7:52 in the trials and Williamsport should be around the same mark, maybe 7:53. NA and Kiski both can run sub 7:55 in the trials without a doubt. Probably a 7:55ish mark will be sitting at home on Day 2.