The 800m is my personal favorite event to be a part of as an 800m guy for just about all of my running career. So I love to see a good 800m race and watch guys lay it all on the line in this race. So now I lay my 800m reputation on the line going for the predictions in the 800m.
Out of Heat 1, I see Dan Alexander, James Clements, Mark Arzie and Andrew Miller getting the auto times. Alexander has fresh legs and has been a consistently top 800m guy in the AA scene for the past few years. Clements, a D1 rival out of Christopher Dock, may expend a lot of energy in the 4x8, but I think it is equally possible his team will be out of it enough to allow him to conserve. Miller and Arzie are going to be doubling and both will have likely ran fairly hard on the 4x8, but I think that they are talented enough to get through anyway. Arzie seems very strong based on what I have seen despite the fact that he just a sophomore.
Out of Heat 2, I got Ryan Smathers, Curt Jewett, Shawn Wolfe and Jordan Jackson getting through. Yeah, I'm aware that's just the top 4 seeds, but these guys are all big names on the AA scene. Jackson is the top returner in this event while Smathers is the defending state champ in the mile and has successfully qualified for the finals in both events each of the past two years. Wolfe is the top seed in this field and the heavy favorite to win this race. Jewett I suppose is the most likely guy to miss qualifying because he has rarely tried this double, but I feel Jewett can run the likely 1:58ish qualifying time with his eyes closed.
The at large spots make the event much more interesting. Colton Snyder out of NE Bradford is a returning finalist and as long as he doesn't waste too much in the 4x8 trials, he should be able to get into the finals. The same goes for Jonathan Goodson. His Big Spring team needs a big leg from him in the trials, but I think he won't have much of an issue getting through the first round as an at large qualifier. After that the question essentially becomes is anyone going to break out or are the rest of the favorites going to dominate? I'll go out on a bit of a limb and say that Jordan Wilt and Ryan Detsch step up after relatively little competition at their district meet and end up sneaking into the finals.
In the final, the race is Shawn Wolfe's to lose and I don't expect him to let it get away. He has run some very fast times with very little competition so I would hate to see what he can do if he is actually pushed this outdoor season. The only concern I have is his fairly busy schedule of two relays and the 8, while Dan Alexander and Jordan Jackson can play upset here with relatively fresh legs, focusing only on the 800m. I don't expect either of those two to take it down, but they are the guys I would look at if I wanted to call upset.
Smathers and Jewett are interesting here. Both are super talented, but both are going to be laying it all on the line in the 1600m and I'm not sure how much either will have left. Smathers has tried this double the past two years and finished 12th and 8th and in the finals. Jewett's one 16-8 double at Henderson was not incredibly successful either. I'm not sure I can bid high on either runner in this spot. The loser of the 16 out of these two has a much better shot of doing well in my mind.
The rest of the contenders will be pulling double duty off the 4x8. I really like Arzie in this race, he has done fantastic this season and I think he could be 1:56 if conditions pan out well. Snyder has had some positive momentum as of late and I'm sure having a teammate in the race is only extra motivation. James Clements had one heck of a race last weekend against Alexander and I don't expect his 4x8 squad to make finals. He could be the wild card in this race.
Here's how I see the boys crossing the line when all is said and done:
1. Wolfe 1:53
2. Alexander 1:55
3. Clements 1:56
4. Jackson 1:56
5. Arzie 1:56
6. Snyder 1:57
7. Smathers 1:57
8. Goodson 1:57
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