Same deal as before, gotta establish the qualifiers before I pick out the medalists.
In heat one I got the auto qualifiers as Russell, Zingarini, Leidal and Sloan
Sloan is going to have run a big PR to get this auto-qualifier. It's going to take 4:15ish to make it out of this heat with an auto-bid in my mind. I'm optimistic about Leidal and Sloan here. Russell and Zingarini are smart, strong runners. A fast pace only benefits them and they shouldn't struggle to get through. With Groh and Abert in this heat I'd be very surprised if this heat was not very quick in the early goings.
In heat two I have Huemmler, Moy, Coyle and Schettler getting through on the auto-bid
I see this one being a bit more of a kickers race and that means Huemmler and Coyle are licking their chops. Schettler made the final last year and I think that experience helps him get through. Huemmler and Coyle are money obviously and I'd be stunned if one of them misses out on the finals. And then Moy is the classic boom bust pick in this spot. He is a bit inexperienced but he has been on a roll as of late and has a killer kick which is quite valuable in a race like this. I worry a little bit that he isn't in the same heat as Tony, who is the perfect teammate for a guy like Moy because he is experienced smart and if you can be anywhere close by you are going to run a great time, but I'm optimistic that Moy's kick and momentum gets him to the final.
Then there will be a bunch of guys fighting hard for the at large qualifying spots. With 4 on the line, I think that first heat will be fast enough to get Groh in at least. Harriman is going to have run hard in that 4x8 for sure, his 4x8 heat is quite stacked, so I wouldn't be surprised at all if he misses finals. But I think he hangs tough and gets one of the last spots in. Someone else in this 1st heat may step up to the plate and run a huge surprise time off a fast pace, but right now I can't pick out who that will be. The last two spots are very tricky to call. Dan Jaskowak steps it up come states time but I'm not picking him to get through but not very confidently. He seemed to be running with a lot more confidence a year ago and had posted a lot faster times, but it's always hard to count out a guy with his potential. The 2nd heat has a lot more talent in my mind, someone very talented is going to be left out of the finals. Ultimately I'm going Colwell and Watro to pull this one out. I like Kardish a lot, he could certainly be the surprise of this heat, but I'm worried about the way he has been front running lately and he may pay for it in this race given all the talented kickers in the field. Watro showed great closing speed twice last weekend. 4:17 may be his ceiling, but I think that kind of mark is good enough to get him into the finals.
Now the final sets up to be on to remember. Obviously, the depth of the state has been something that has been talked to death on here, but the quality of this projected final speaks volumes about just how good the state is. In the final, I have to drop Groh out of the conversation. That 32-16 double is no joke and I can't, in good faith, pick him to dominate the double. Especially because I see him being a factor in the 32 and tired after a very hard run in the 16 the day before. Harriman is a big question mark for me here as well. He runs lead off on the 4x8 so he will be trying to complete the successful doubled Nick Rotz did a year ago. Harriman ran unreal last weekend, I didn't expect him to have such a great double, but at states doubling is even harder than it is at districts. I am leaving Harriman out of the medals as well.
I'm not sure how fast the pace will be in the early going of this 16. I think things will be fairly slow and favor the kickers, I don't see many guys making it honest early. Leidal likely learned his lesson last weekend about leading races out front. I'm projecting somewhere around 2:08-2:12 for the first 800m. Then things should get interesting. I forsee somebody making a move at 800m, likely Russell but could be someone like Sloan or Colwell or Schettler (haven't seen these guys race in person), waking up the field a bit and things will start to crank down.
The last lap will be a true kicker's race and a fantastic battle to the finish. I think this will become a three man race by 200m to go with Russell, Coyle and Huemmler coming around the turn in that order. I think Russell has improved his kick over the last few weeks, he and his coach know that is what it is going to take to win. But that being said, Coyle and Huemmler are proven 1:52-1:51 types and they might just be too quick down the stretch. Ultimately I think those two will be able to slightly pull away from Russell as the race comes to a close. It will be close, but I have Russell finishing third.
Who will take down the victory out front? Coyle the defending outdoor state champion or Huemmler the winner indoors? I think something was a little off with Coyle indoors at states. I'm not sure if it was sickness or not, but he seemed off especially after what I saw at PCLs. He would never make excuses or discredit the great running by the other guys so we will never know, but I think that wasn't a true test of his ability.
That being said, Huemmler put himself in a tough spot last outdoors. He was worried about a fast time more so than the win and that ultimately cost him when Coyle put on his kick at the finish. Huemmler will adjust accordingly for this meet.
Honestly I'm just glad we get to see this match up unlike the Willig Magaha match up that was hyped up by me a year ago. I think this race lives up to the hype with 3 guys within one second of one another. I think it comes down to a lean for the gold just like indoor states last year and this time Jack Huemmler is the guy to take down the victory by less than a tenth of a second.
Behind the 3 out front, Zingarini seems the most likely guy to break up the group. Zingarini reminds me of Vince Perozze. Zingarini is a very solid runner, great strength runner, no flashy 800m speed but consistently solid running and a strong kick and gusty running. Harrison Schettler has been running great for some time now as well, he can maybe break up the District One fanfest. Kevin Moy has that dangerous kick and in this kind of kickers race, he may be the most dangerous of the "non-favorites" out there. Harriman is very dangerous in terms of a kick as well. If he isn't too exhausted from the 4x8 he will really benefit from a slower pace.
Ultimately, here are my medalists. It is a little bit of D1 bias in action, but I just don't know enough about some of these guys to pick them to finish at the top. I hope they are not too offended and I hope they show me something big at the meet.
1. Huemmler 4:11
2. Coyle 4:11
3. Russell 4:12
4. Moy 4:14
5. Zingarini 4:14
6. Schettler 4:14
7. Leidal 4:16
8. Watro 4:17
Like I said, heavy D1 bias here, but those guys are great with solid kicks so I'm expecting big things. All 8 D1 guys are legit medal contenders.
Jon Colwell, dont you remember his kick from Kevin Dare? He'd definetly be a sleeper pick.
ReplyDeleteGood point actually I completely forgot about that ... May prove to be a great upset pick here
DeleteMoy for the win
ReplyDeleteEveryone got mad when I talked up Kevin Moy in the fall, and just look at where he is now.
Deleteits funny how true this is.
DeleteRussell's race this time.
ReplyDeleteHuemmler - 4:08.5
ReplyDeleteCoyle - 4:08.7
Russell - 4:11.4
Zingarini - 4:12.5
Moy - 4:15.0
Colwell - 4:15.2
Leidal -4:17.2
Jaskowak - 4:17.4
I've been pulling for Jaskowak all year, and after his states performance last year, I just can't let this slide. I think he takes 8th.
Russell takes it through the 800 in 2:06-2:07. Colwell makes a push for the lead with 500 to go, order at the 1200 (3:11) is Colwell, Coyle, Russell, Moy and Huemmler. Zingarini makes a huge move on the back straight, taking Huemmler, Coyle and Russell with him. They go through 1400 in 3:40 and with Coyle in front, followed by Huemmler. Huemmler comes up alongside Coyle on the final stretch and gets those few inches on him in the last 20-30 meters. Russell passes up Zingarini on the final stretch as well
It's got to be Coyle for the repeat.
ReplyDeleteThis is like a repeat of the indoor predictions, with it likely coming down to Coyle, Huemmler & Russell. Except that now all 3 are focused on just one race and appear healthy/peaking, which should set up for quite a battle.
ReplyDeleteRussell is the tough one to predict to win it. He’s been outkicked a fair amount in some big non-XC races and now he’s going up against possibly the two best finishers in the state. He can’t afford to let the race slow down early like the states indoor mile did as that just benefits the kickers. He can't let Huemmler be comfortable like he was at districts either. For Russell to win, he’s got to keep the pace moving. It’s really a question of how can he get to 4:10 in a way where there’s much less chance of Huemmler/Coyle having anything left.
I could see Russell getting the 4:10, but not doing it with a mad final 58 second 400. He’s a tremendous pace runner and to win this I think he has to make an aggressive mid race move like he was doing in XC. I’m talking trying to wear down the field, sitting near the lead and make a move around 600 to bring it through the 800 at 2:05 and then throw out a 61-400 starting from the 1,000 mark, to get through 1200 at 3:07 and hope he has enough left to get home in 4:10. He’s got to try something to take the kick out of the others. He's too good for the field to let get too far out so they'd have to follow close. If he can get to 4:10 with a hold-on 62/63 final lap, I’m not sure anyone could catch him down the stretch. I know it’s not the ideal way to run a state 1600, but he’s shown no signs yet of being able to fend off the big kickers in the classic mile approach of hold-position first ½-conserve 3rd lap-wild 4th lap. Fortunately for him though, I’m not the one advising him and he’s got an excellent coach and will no doubt have a good plan to give him a decent shot at victory.
Coyle has finally dropped a solid open mile in his 4:14.8-1600c PLC win. That’s still nearly 3 seconds off his PR winning 4:11 at states last year, but certainly in the ball park of what it will take to win this. I’d guess he’ll take the usual approach of hanging around fourth or so and making his late move. If he’s within striking distance with 200 to go, he’s a lock for at least 2nd.
Huemmler looked very comfortable winning Districts, like he had a bit more left. He’s had a more mild spring than last year, no insane 800/1600/3200 triple at Delco’s like last year, no 800 at districts. Doing all the work at last year’s states and getting clipped by Coyle down the stretch may give him some added motivation for revenge this year. I definitely consider him the favorite going in.
After those three I like Schettler and Moy’s chances too. Moy is like many a junior having a terrific break out season. He’s got a 1:55-800 speed and a strong kick which should be big in this race.
If the leaders go through 1200 under 3:08, I’d pick Russell to win in 4:10/4:11. But assuming 3:10 or more at 1200, my picks are:
Huemmler - 4:11.7
Coyle - 4:13.1
Russell – 4:13.5
Schettler – 4:15.6
Moy – 4:15.8
Zingarini – 4:15.9
Leidel – 4:16.5
Harriman – 4:16.8
-RJJL
The pace isn't going to be slow. Russell knows he's the only one who could win off a 2:03 2:04 pace for the first 800. Coyle and jack just couldn't hold on to that in my mind. Hell, if its not windy I think its Russell's best bet to take it out on his own because he's the only runner in the field with the guts to do it. I hope he does, I don't want to see some crap race where someone wins in a 4:12 again when there are loads of people who can go faster.
ReplyDeleteIs it really guts? Or lack of experience
DeleteWhat do you mean by lack of experience? You know he's a state champion right? His PR's are as fast as the seniors, he ran a 4:11.5 full mile split during indoors along with a 3:02 split, solo I believe. So yes, it is guts. That's what's different about strength runners and kickers. No one would run fast if it weren't for strength runners, if it was only a field of kickers then You'd have guys like jack who cut people off to slow down the pace. (Indoor states reference) that's not guts, its a good strategy but by this point Russell has to know jack does that because he can't handle a fast pace. That's why his fastest first 800 ever was a 2:08. Bring that down to 2:04 then let's see if he can hold on. Tom Coyle is the same story, I haven't seen him race well with a fast first half mile ever. That's why I think Russell will win, he's the only one in the field who can handle a 2:04 first half and still have a chance to shave another second off for the second.
DeleteSecond lap*^
DeleteOkay, I can't let you trash Jack and Tom without saying something.
ReplyDeleteJack isn't afraid of a fast pace. Did you watch states last year? He wanted a fast pace and continued to push and then died because of how difficult it is to lead the whole race. Have you heard of his splits this year? At Lehigh one of his mile splits were about 61, 2:03, 3:15, 4:24. That's not a slow pace, especially for Lehigh. Jack wants a fast pace, he just learned from experience that it's not smart to lead that pace. What did that get him? Millrose, State Champ, and sick anchor on the DMR double. Jack has speed to him, yes, and he has developed very quickly into quite the kicker. If you're talking about cutting runners off, he accidentally cut Russell off once when they were all alone when he surged to the front and that was accidental and he didn't slow down or alter Russell's place (it was about 300 to go). The second lap was a clean cut in. Yes, they did slow the pace down, but it's States, it's tactical.
Tom is indeed a kicker, yes, but he isn't afraid of the fast pace either. Last year at Penn Relays he was moving. I don't have his splits, but I was watching from the track and he was moving. He stay up with the group and ran well. He can push from the pace, but why would he? He has 1:51/50 point speed. Leading the way would just tire him out and make him the one to get out kicked.
If Russell goes out 2:04, I can almost guarantee he will be alone by about 3-4 seconds and by the final lap he will have to work extremely hard to pull off that win. Magaha didn't even go out in 2:04 and he was a grinder. The chase pack will eat Russell up if he goes out too fast on his own. It would be in his best interest to take over with about 600-700 to go and push hard, people would have follow him if they wanted to win. Also, Russell definitely does have experience, you can' t take that away from him. Is he gutsy enough to make a bold move and try and pound it from the beginning? We will see.
I'd love to make predictions tonight, but I have an exam that I should be studying for rather than write this post. I just couldn't let Jack and Tom get torn down since I am friends with them both.
-RTJ
If Russell waits until 600 to go he's basically running Huemmler and Coyle's race and will finish 3rd if he's lucky.
DeleteIf youre backing up jack liking a fast pace, you should've used a better example instead of 2:03 and then dying and running 4:24.... whether he tried or not. Give me an example with them sticking with a fast pace. I dont mean to trash them but i'm pointing out the obvious fact that their endurance just can't handle what russell can. Everybody has pointed out that Russell's kick is poor in comparison to jack and toms, i'm just saying their endurance is poor in comparison to his.
DeleteHow about Jack in the Box's double at Indoor states? He won the mile, and then went out in 2:04 to try and catch up to Coyle. Huemmler was sick going into the state meet and still gave the effort to come up with a 4:17 on the double. Last year he ran 4:12 at the state meet running 63, 65, 64, 64. So that's extremely consistent and I give him major props for that race. The guy is a stud and I don't see him losing this race. Coyle ran 4:13.85 at Penn Relays this year (he ran 4:11.0 last year) and he didn't look great in the effort. Yes he won and had to catch the pack a bit, but in the last 150 he didn't blow Savage out of the water like I expected him too and he was straining quite a bit; I fully expected him to run away from the pack in the last 200 with ease. I don't think he's as good as he was last year, although I do believe he's got a 4:11 1600 in him, but I think Jack's got a 4:10.
Delete--ForrestCRN
As for Russell I think he tries to go too early and Zingarini catches him for 3rd in a 4:13 low effort.
Correct me if I'm wrong but simple math tells us that 63,65,64,64 all add up to a total time of 4:16...not 4:12....that is of course you were referring to the 4:17 you mentioned. Then in that case I apologize. So, I don't know how you got those splits but they're not right.
Delete*of course if
DeleteLooks like a typo, he probably closed with a 60 and that would add up to 4:12.
Deleteyeah, that's what I meant, sorry about that.
DeleteAnd indoors in January running 4:24 all alone and having the guts to go out in 2:04 (as a test for the state meet) as RTJ said isn't dying, it's quite impressive. Jack knows how to race and race smart. I don't think Russell is ready to beat him or Coyle.
--ForrestCRN
It is states. I think Russel, after what happened in indoor, will not take the lead. He will stick with the pack until the third lap, when everyone's hurting. Then start pushing at about 600 to go.
ReplyDeletewhether russell took the lead or not at indoor states he would've lost, just at a slower time. The first 800 meters was terribly slow. I think he'll feel the first lap out and if it isnt fast enough to make the other guys hurt then I believe he'll take it and crush the pace.
DeleteI'm definitely going Huemmler on this one over Coyle and Russell. For those who weren't at districts this past weekend, Jack looked incredibly relaxed and in control the entire race. He glanced back at Tony with 100 meters to go and basically shrugged him off. He has a ton left in the tank.
ReplyDeleteIt looked like some of what he had left was barfed into a trash can afterwards.
DeleteI am witness to this too. Yeah he was fast in the end but his head was hanging back and he looked like he was putting a huge effort out, every time Jack switched gears to go faster Russell did too, he just needs to get around him. Which is easier said than done.
DeleteIf we could all refer to him as 'Jack in the box' it would really make him happy, trust me.
ReplyDeleteThat example was him dying, but it was also at Lehigh where he had a massive lead and had no one to chase or run with so he was chillen. He was just testing out how fast he could take it out without him dying too much. a 4:24 in early Jan is a fantastic time. If he could do that then, imagine what he could do now.
ReplyDeleteI'd love to see a mile where Huemmler, Russell, and Coyle were going at it like Kehl/Kellar.
I do admit Russell can run a fast pace. I don't think he will get the chance to actually run a pace that will go that fast until the distance festival where there's a rabbit.
-RTJ
Russell beat Coyle indoors if I remember correctly ... Coyle is strong but he has done little to prove he is clearly better than Russell ... I am aware that I too picked Coyle but let's give russell some credit here he has strength and good speed 302 1200 speed indoors
ReplyDeleteRussell was 2nd in 4:19, Coyle 3rd in 4:20. I never said Coyle was going to beat Russell or vice versa... I was just saying Coyle is capable of a fast pace along with Huemmler.
ReplyDelete-RTJ
I'm not really qualified to comment outside of Russell, Coyle and Jack in the box, but I think etrain's got the right order between these three. I think jack has learned that leading the whole way is too much of a burden, ultimately forcing Russell to take out the race (starting somewhere in the first 150 meters of the second lap). Jack will pass Russell with 300-350 to go, leaving just him and Coyle. I think Coyle will be attached to jack's hip until there's around 150 left. Coyle will then pass Jack briefly, but Jack in the box will retake the lead with 50-60 to go, and will hold on to be state champ.
ReplyDelete-nevaH
Times for the top 3:
ReplyDelete1) Jack in the box 4:09
2) Coyle 4:09.5
3) Russell 4:11
Reasoning: I explained how I believe the race will play out above, but I selected my times a little quicker than etrain did for a few reasons. The first lap will be fast no matter who leads, I think this is something we can almost all agree on. Jack in the box and Coyle can and have out-kicked Russell. Russell therefore must not only keep the pace honest, but killer. If he can maintain this kind of pace (I don't think he can) he will win. Russell therefore has something to lose if the pace slows, which is why I think he'll keep it very quick. The third lap to me is a toss up, if Russell hangs on to such a pace...this race could be faster than my times indicate, but i think near the end of the third he starts losing steam, causing him to get overtaken by Jack near the start of the fourth. I think the slowdown in pace at the end of the third into the fourth lap is why it wont be lower than 4:09. Jack in the box will come out firing on the fourth lap, with Coyle right on his hip (Worked for Coyle in the past). You know what I think will happen after this(above), but this is my reasoning for the times I have chosen (slightly quicker than Etrain).
-nevaH