State Championship Predictions: AAA 800m

Somehow I feel like I've managed to not make the same title style for any of these predictions. Hmm. Anyway, let's get right down to business in the always compelling AAA 800m race. What do I want to do with this race? There are a lot of compelling story lines here. If this field was assembled at a post season meet where all could run fresh, we could realistically see a 1:50 or under time. At states, I'm not counting on it. But that being said I still think things will be competitive and fast.

Out of heat 1, I think our finalists will be Jeff Wiseman, Andrew Stone, Zach Brehm and Dave Garton. Wiseman with no issue here, his kick is phenomenal and the season he has had leaves no doubt in my mind that he will get through. Stone has not been as strong as he was a year ago in my mind, keeping a relatively low profile, but I think Stone is hungry for a state title and gets through. No one is talking about him at all including myself and how a guy with his credentials has been essentially forgotten from the discussion is beyond me. Brehm should get in. Normally I would doubt a sophomore's abilities to double at the state meet but I think last weekend he showed everyone how strong he was. He qualified for the finals last year as a freshman when I doubted him and I haven't forgotten. Lastly I like Garton to sneak up and surprise. Without having to swing 4x8 duties I think he will be a lot stronger and ready to sneak up and get in to the final with a capital Q next to his name.

In heat 2, I think the finalists will likely be Joe Logue, Alec Kunzweiler, Alex Nole and Steve Yannacone. This heat is softer to me than the previous heat and if a sleeper is going to come from somewhere I think it is this heat. I'm not huge on the D7 800m guys as you can tell from my predictions. I don't know why, those guys have been solid throughout the year, but the D1 guys have big race experience and great kicks. Logue and Yannacone have proven themselves. Kunzweiler has been money this year and if necessary he will run 1:52 in the prelims and make finals. Last year he ran 1:53ish and it didn't phase him for day 2. Nole is the wildcard here out of D2. He has run 1:54 and soloed a 1:55 last weekend to win extremely easily so I like his upside against some of the doubling guys like Becich, Caldwell, Jaskowak and Cox-Finn.

The at large guys in my mind will be Brad Rivera, Dylin Wilhoite, Sean Gipson, and Matt Sankey.
Its hard for me to pick just 4 guys looking down this list. Smith, Mazzanti, and Culley are all quality guys that I think will be left off the finalists list. Rivera I'm counting on slipping in, he was the indoor state champ after all. Wilhoite has won a lot of big D7 meets, now the only question is can he do it against the big names in D1. I hesitantly stick him through. Gipson ran a quality 1:55 last weekend seemingly out of nowhere. I'm hoping that's a Drew Gerberich type performance. Gerberich dropped to 1:55 out of nowhere and then 1:53 at states. Is Gipson are Gerberich that I asked about at the very beginning of the season? Sankey is strong as well and dropping the 16 should be a smart move.

Guys left out of the finals in this scenario would include Magee, Culley, Smith, Mizzanti, Jaskowak, Caldwell, Cox-Finn, Smail, Sullivan, Coburn, Hunter, Stelly and Becich. Wow. Great field of guys and will definitely be a great final.

In the final, we will see a battle between stud Alec Kunzweiler and the field. I'm a huge Kunzweiler fan and if he was running fresh he would be my pick. But I think that Kunzweiler will have to run very hard in the relay, maybe a sub 1:50 split to give his team a gold, and so when he is closing down the last 100m of this open 8, I think Jeff Wiseman will put on his kick that he has unleashed all year and surprise Kunzweiler to take down to a gold. I think Andrew Stone is a huge sleeper here. He has a lot of talent and if he is ready for this meet, which the LaSalle boys usually are, he could use his fresh legs to his advantage. Brehm is clearly a stud and he will follow Kunzweiler like a hawk in this race. If he isn't too tired from a busy weekend last weekend, he will sneak into the top group.

I'm not sure where to place Joe Logue. I thought his kick would be good enough to compete with Wiseman, but he didn't put himself up front early enough to mix it up at the finish. The nice thing is, this will be the closest thing to a Henderson Invite repeat Logue will see: a fast pace with lots of quality guys to do the work and then try to kick. Logue's best open time before his 1:51 last year was just 1:54. Rivera is the indoor state champ and has medaled in the 8 before. But likely Rivera is going to be leading this race or pushing the pace and on tired legs that could be his undoing. Yannacone was the D1 champ a year ago. I'm not sure if he is as fit as last year but he surprised me in a competitive D1 race so he could surprise me again here, but I'm not going big with him.

In a race like this, it's going to be a free for all for the final medal spots, especially considering it's going to be a free for all for the final finalists spots. My bet is that something like 5th and 10th will be within the same second or so.

Here's how I think it plays out
1. Wiseman 1:51
2. Kunzweiler 1:52
3. Logue 1:52
4. Stone 1:53
5. Brehm 1:53
6. Nole 1:53
7. Gipson 1:54
8. Yannacone 1:54
9. Rivera 1:54
10. Garton 1:54
11. Sankey 1:54
12. Wilhoite 1:55

That's it for my predictions! Leave your own and comment away, just try not to be too harsh with one another, I don't want to have to delete comments.