State Championship Predictions: AAA 3200m

The AAA boys 3200m is a race that I am really excited to see results for. In my opinion the race is incredibly up for grabs although Norris has to be the favorite for his big time performances in the past. At districts, I definitely wouldn't say Norris looked comfortable, but I also don't think he went into that race trying to do anything more than get the state qualifying time.

I thought about how so many people really focus their energy on saving for the state championships and I decided to do a little check back at the state champions the last few years in the 32. Last year it was Sam Hibbs who dominated the district one championship and ran a then PR mark. Before him Glenn Burkhardt did essentially the same thing dominating the D1 championship. Neither of those guys felt the need to save anything and won their races by convincing margins. Before Burkhardt you had Fischer, who was second at D1 and outkicked by his teammate Burkhardt, but the two pushed the pace the whole way. Tarsnane won before then, he ran hard at districts while Furcht saved himself for states, but Tarsnane still won both. Dennin won the year before that winning both the district one title and the state title with PR marks back to back weeks.

So really in my opinion the whole saving yourself thing is overrated. The cream rises to the top. So, therefore, in my mind everyone is on even footing this week whether they saved up or not. So does that mean I should go Ross Wilson for state champion?

Sorry man, I can't go that bold. I can't believe this guy has dominated as much as he had racing 32 after 32. He looked the most comfortable out of any guy I saw in the D1 race if I'm being perfectly honest. But my head says all those hard 32s back to back to back to back to back will finally add up. Doesn't mean he can't jump up and snag a medal, but I don't think he will win.

I go back and forth on who I will pick to win this race. There are a lot of guys that I think could, here is my list: Norris, Wilson, Kennedy, Martin, Todaro and James. If anyone else one, I'd be surprised, although it certainly could happen considering the quality of this field.

In order to pick between this group I had to consider how the race itself would play out. I don't anticipate things being incredibly fast from the gun, but I do hope that some combination of Groh, Wilson, James, Quinn and whichever other front runners are out there keep this thing honest. I can't help but compare this race in many ways to the 3200m I saw back in 2009 at Shippensburg. Ben Furcht, Bobby Micikas and Jimmy Tarsnane were the top 3 in the race. Micikas had won Penn Relays and Indoor states by outkicking the field that included Ben Furcht who was runner up both times. Furcht didn't have the wheels to win in a kicker's race so he hammered the whole way on the second mile to try and suck the kick out of Micikas. It worked and Micikas just didn't have it that day, but Tarsnane did. He surprised Furcht with about a 60 second last lap and took a surprise gold despite a gutsy run by Ben.

For some reason I equate Norris to Micikas. Norris is a bit more accomplished in both XC and the 1600 so it isn't a completely reasonable comparison but it's the one I jump to when trying to pick this state championship winner. It might be stupid of me, but I'm picking against Norris in this one.

As mentioned above I have my doubts about Wilson as well, so leaving him out of the conversation that leaves James, Todaro, Kennedy and Martin in my possible winner's circle. Man, this is a tough one. I am a huge fan of James but I pick against him as well here. He is only a sophomore and he will have more chances at this event. This event is usually dominated by Seniors and it takes a truly special soph and a fairly week field to see something other than a senior victory. So I'm not going with James this year for the W.

Now I go back and forth with these 3 guys. Every time I visualize the race I see a new guy who would finish first out of the three of them. Kennedy and Martin have been so close every time that they have raced it's hard to imagine anything different. Martin is fresher now than he was when he beat Kennedy a week ago, but Kennedy has been gaining momentum all year since his injury. But so too has Vinny Todaro who dropped a huge 4:13 1600m a week ago to prove he has one of the top kicks in this field behind Norris. I suspect that this race will be one of the best the state has ever seen, not just in terms of depth, but in terms of competition for the win. So many guys have the potential, but only one guy can wear the gold around his neck.

Ultimately, it is hard to say this with any form of certainty, but I'm taking Vinny Todaro to take the gold medal in this race. I'm a huge fan of Martin and Kennedy here so if one of those two wins I'll regret not going with my gut. And as for Norris, I think if the race is run 10 times he would probably win about 7 and if I was give 5 bucks to bet on anybody it would be Max. Sometimes you just get a feeling and you got to jump on it and that's what I'm doing today.

But this race is far from just being about gold. The race for the other medal spots should be equally compelling. Adam Bodine has made big strides in the past couple weeks and dropped a 9:17 PR. Maybe he has taken the next step to grab a state medal. Sam Webb always sticks his nose in it as does Jeff Groh but both guys will be pulling double duty over the course of the weekend. NA has 3 guys in the race and Matt McGoey is my big sleeper pick here, but again, having the 4x8 to worry about complicates the odds that he has a breakout race. Dominic Deluca is a sub 9:20 man who has proven he can run fast in a talented field. Dan Savage is a very talented 3200m man who was one  of the top finishers indoors in a very competitive 3k and can not be overlooked in this field despite the breakout of his younger teammate. Savage is just as likely as any to surprise for a top 5 finish. Will McDermott has a lot of momentum in his favor coming off a couple of close battles with Kevin James. Reiny Barchet is one of only two guys in the field who have run under 9:10 for 3200m this year. Clearly, he deserves a bit of respect. He also seems to alternate his big races, which means he is due for a big one here at states. And Conner Quinn is one of the few guys in this field who has a state championship. Not to mention the fact that he has an old teammate who has stepped up and won this race before. If anyone knows how to step it up in the post season it is Quinn. Plus you have to throw in Colin Martin into the equation. He is always close behind Ethan and Ethan is one of the top guys in this field.

Not to mention Ean Disilvio of Allerdice and Austin Pondel, the footlocker finalist are in this field seeded way down the list!

This race is incredibly deep and there are legitimately over 20 guys with realistic medal chances. But there can be only 8.

This was easily the toughest event for me to pick and if I predicted in 10 times we would have 10 very different predictions by me. Even now I go back and forth on every posistion for 1st to 21st. But ultimately I have to put something down and here is what I am going with. The times are if the weather is reasonable, I can't imagine the pace won't be fast.

1. Todaro 9:04
2. Norris 9:06
3. Martin 9:07
4. Kennedy 9:09
5. Martin 9:12
6. Wilson 9:13
7. James 9:13
8. Quinn 9:15
9. Savage 9:18
10. McGuoy 9:19
11. Groh 9:21
12. Barchet 9:21
13. McDermott 9:22
14. Deluca 9:23
15. Webb 9:25
16. Stratman 9:25
17. Bodine 9:26
18. Zemet 9:26
19. Pitone 9:28
20. Conrad-Kline 9:28

Man I still have some question marks about where to put some of these guys and I can't even list all the guys who can do damage. These are my picks, but man it's a toss up in a lot of places. Let me know what you think and predict away!