Skip Around as Desired ... I'm on a real computer now so my thoughts should be a little bit less jumbled and a little more in depth. Well we will see anyway.
These meets are listed in the order that they are run so if I don't finish this way I will have time to before all the races are run.
District 2
The AA meet is going on right now and I haven't found results but I'll throw down a few thoughts about it. Rico Galassi should try for the 32 and the 16 at states. I'd be surprised if he won both for sure (and honestly I don't think he is the favorite in the 32 right now) but he could get two big PRs out of it. He has never really been pushed yet this year when he runs but he has still managed multiple 4:19s and a 9:10. Wow the kid has a lot of potential to drop time in the right environment. He will be battling, in the 1600m, Kieran Sutton, Matt Murray, Mark Arzie, Nathan Morgan and Dominic Huckleberry who are all seeded with 2 seconds of one another and just off the 4:31.00 SQS. Huckleberry and Murray are both just freshman. In the 32, Luke Jones, Galassi's hard nosed XC rival, will look to push him to his limits and try and get his own sub 9:20 mark. Jones is a gamer and is looking to prove himself as more than just an XC guy. His best events will likely be 5k-10k in college, but he can hammer a great 32 today if things go right. Sutton and Huckleberry will also be in the race with a chance at SQS marks.
In AAA, Jacob Fetterman, 17th place in XC this past year, is entered in the 4x8, 16, and 32 with state aspirations perhaps in all three. But he will be fought hard by Dallas's Dominic Deluca who already rocketed himself to a 9:13 for 32 at Henderson. Deluca is only running the 32 and should be able to lock up a spot to states. He will, however, have a tough challenge in the 32 from both Fetterman and Mike Brier of Scranton Prep who has run 9:32 and 4:26 this year. Brier is the favorite going into the 1600m to take gold. In the 800m, Tunkhannock's break out star Alex Nole has already run 1:54 this year and is the clear favorite in the field. Only one other runner comes in having already run under 2 minutes.
Independent League
Ok so not quite a district but still should feature some of the best action of the weekend. Sam Ritz stepped out of his older brother's shadow with a huge weekend that included a solo 4:15 and a 1:57 800m. That was a great day for him and hopefully he can carry the momentum into this championship meet. Surprisingly the Ritz boys and the GFS studs have all passed on running the 16 and the 32. GFS seems to be loading up a 4x8 squad, meanwhile both Ritz's are entered in the 800m. Lyle Wistar headlines the slow heat of the 800m and Sami Aziz is the 9th and final seed in a stacked 800m that includes Ben Ritz (1:54.41 PR), Dan Ferrariolo of Malvern Prep (1:55.8 this year), Sam Ritz (1:57.20) and 4 other guys at sub 2.
Two of those guys are from Penn Charter who also has a man seeded at 2:00.00. If they load up a 4x8 to compete with GFS and the Haverford School (which features Lucas Elek a 1:56 half miler) the race could be very fast. The 3200m has Ben Szuhaj and Billy McDevitt who are a couple solid 2 milers who are a bit under the radar. Szuhaj is a sleeper here for a fast time if McDevitt can match the work he did at Henderson where he ran 4:37.
District 10 Championships
Dan Jaskowak was on a roll last year and was one of my big sleepers for states based on his great range and XC season the year before. But now Jaskowak is an under the radar kind of runner who has yet to pop off any mark that is extremely fast. He still seems to have great range and has PRs of 9:14, 4:17 and 1:55 from a year ago. It is uncertain what he will run at his District championships and then at states, but a year ago he took down golds in the 4x8, 16 and 32. He will likely run the 16 and 32 again this season. Austin Pondel, a Footlocker Finalist, has been relatively off the map this season. He has a few solid 32s to his name so if he is healthy and ready to go, he could still slip into the mix on talent alone. Ethan Louis is also a talented 3200 man from this district and has been on the cusp of breaking out into a low 9:30s kinda guy for some time. Maybe this is his year.
Interesting look at the district 1 3200, top 3 are a reminder of XC haha
ReplyDeleteI'm interested to see how Macauley is after not running in his league meet. Emery won't be running it, he was diagnosed with Mono right after the Henderson meet and it was affecting him during Penn Relays as well. The top two returners may not be running which would be a real shame.
--ForrestCRN
Isn't Russell hurt too from the Henderson meet? Will Norris run the 1600 too? He would have a great chance to win it.
DeleteOut of curiosity, why is Norris not listed under the 1600 perf list? Isn't this perf list just a list of everyone who's qualified for any event? So for example, since Russell qualified for both the mile and 2 mile he is listed under both. If that is so, then why is Norris only listed under the 32 and not the 16? His 4:12 should have him seeded towards the top....
DeleteThe performance list is a list of entries but since you are allowed to scratch it essentially just becomes a list of qualifiers because it does it hurt to enter a guy in everything just in case. Norris is focusing purely on the 32. A bit sad for me personally but gives him a great shot at a state title in the 32.
ReplyDeleteI'm with you. After the indoor and Penn Relays 3000, everyone knows what Norris can do in the 3200. He really dropped to another level and to me it was almost out of nowhere, he wasn't on many peoples radar for those type of performance. He's the overwhelming favorite in the 3200 no matter who runs it.
DeleteBut that 4:12 1600 at Henderson was really intriguing. Just like how he followed Russell at indoor states, he simply shadowed Jewett and then unleashed a strong last 400 or so and won uncontested in the last 200. I think he could get under 4:10 in the right race so I’d prefer to see him in the 1600 at states mixing it up with Huemmler, Coyle and whoever else, just to see what he can do. But I understand the focus soley on the 3200, it’s better odds for him for state gold.
-RJJL
Can't wait to see your previews for Districts 1, 3 and 7. especially district 3. District 3 is also a scratch meet, which makes things interesting as people can be entered in over 4 things.
ReplyDeleteLooking at the D3 performance list a few things jumped out at me. First off I had no idea there were no trials. 3200 is the last even on Friday night.
Deletehttp://piaadistrict3.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/TRK-2012-2013-TIME-SCHEDULE2.pdf
4x8 at 9:40
1600 at 12:40
800 at 2:50
So the triple is possible for a guy like Kunzweiler, but I don’t see why he’d triple before states. CV will be able to comfortably win the 4x8. I don’t think they need to be faster than 7:55, but watch out with Brehm on the anchor of that young Carlisle team. I think they got 7:55 potential this week and low 7:50 potential at states, it’s a young group, so it’ll be great experience for them next year when they should be a 7:46 squad (calling it now)… no pressure :p… sorry I got off track (puns!). Anyway, I think if Kunzweiler was looking to go for the triple it’s quite possible, he’s got time, and I think if he runs a 1:56 split into a 4:20 he should be fine that with rest to run the SQS of 1:57.32, but I see him dropping the 1600. I’ll be interested to see what Coburn does though. He’s a great relay runner, but has ran some really solid open times this season, at states I think he only runs the 4x8, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran the 1600 at districts.
Brehm will definitely be doubling which should make that open 800 interesting. I think one of the Penn Manor guys will dip under the SQS along with Gatchell, and Sankey. Should be a fast race overall though especially with no trials, unless most of them come off the 1600. Don't see Brehm beating Kunzweiler this year however. Brehm will have to split pretty fast to get his team into states in that 4x8 unlike Kunzweiler and Kunzweiler is just too strong and more experienced right now. Should be a good race though, 1:55 low or 1:54 to win it.
3200: Should be interesting to see how this plays out. 5 guys are right around the SQS starting with the sophomore Gebhart who was 28th at XC AAA states. I’d love to see him hit the time, and I think he will. I think Todaro wins pretty easily with a 9:22ish, Nissley in second. I bet Groh just goes for the 1600, maybe one other guy hits the SQS as well if the pace starts out fast enough or one of them drops a really fast last 800.
1600: Most of these guys will be doubling back off of the 3200, but I expect to see Todaro win this event as well. He’s quite strong despite the injury, and I’ll be interested to see what he runs at states, most likely the 3200. He is very similar to Norris in that he is a strong, fast runner, but that injury hurt his base, which I think will affect him at the state meet more than the district meet. My bet is that Groh goes fresh for this meet, unless he’s like Harriman/Jaskowak last season where they changed last minute to a 3200 guy. It did work out well for both of them, but I think he’s trying to grab a state medal and that’ll be easier in the 1600 this season due to the depth of the 32. I would say 6 guys get the SQS. Maybe Nissley doubles back, but I don’t see the benefit in doing so for him. Look for Ben Mueller and Harrison Schettler to mix it up. Both didn’t finish well at XC and Mueller has recently dropped a lot of time, I think they’ll be back for some redemption this time around.
--ForrestCRN
The CV boys also run 3/4 LEGS 4X4,they run 4 events every meet
DeleteAnother team to keep your eye on in the 4x800 is Red Lion. They swept the open 800 at their county meet going 1:55, 1:59, 1:59. I think they have the potential to run in the 7:54-55 range as well. Something to watch for in the open 800 too, if Kunzweiler and Brehm are coming off the double, Gatchell or Sankey could sneak into one of the top two spots.
DeleteDistrict 1 isn't a scratch meet. Come the day of districts, what you're entered in you have to run. You can jog it if you like, but you must run it or else you're scratched from the entire meet. Just clarification. This list is just people that are listed in everything and then the coach and runner will make the decision by Wednesday or Thursday probably.
ReplyDelete-RTJ
Do you know if they re-post the list after people are taken out of events? or do we just have to wait to see the day of the meet?
Delete--ForrestCRN
People aren't taken out of there events. They just don't declare. It's kind of an educated guessing game. Some things will depend on who runs 4 x 8 and then tries to double back.
Delete4 x 8(Kind of weak by District 1 standards)
*=top 8 Teams making the finals are listed:
Bensalem*
Pennsbury*(depending on what Webb and Harriman do)
Pennridge*(Depending on what Logue does)
Cheltenham*
CBE*
CBS*
CRN(Were Wilson and Zingarini on that 7:58 team)
DTE*
WCH
North Penn
Upper Darby*
Unionville
WCE
After Bensalem, it's a big drop. Remember, it's 2 long weekends. In Logue's case, if you run 4 x 8, open 8 and 4 x 4, he has to spend the whole day hanging out at Coatesville. That can leave a mark next week if he wants to win the 800. Bensalem wins in 7:48. 8th is 8:01.
800-A little easier up top. It's always murky at the back end depending on who runs the 4 x 8.
Wiseman*
Logue*
Caldwell*
Garton*
Rivera*
Hunter*
Yannacone
Sanders*
Lewis
Holm*
Sjoreen
Mercado
1:51.85 for Wiseman for the win. 8th=1:56.22. 10th-1:57.03
1600-Now things get interesting. Who runs just the 3200? Who runs the 1600 just in case the 3200 doesn't go there way? Who focuses on the 4 x 8? Historically, if you run the 1600 trials as a backup in case the 3200 doesn't go well, you run poorly in both races.
Huemmler*
Russell*
Francis*
Zingarini*
Harriman*
Leidel*
Kardish
Scarpelo*
Watro
Hare
Moy*
Fowler
Huemmler kicks away as the first 6 seperate themselves in the last 300-Leidel and Scarpato hang on for 7th and 8th. 4:16.01-1st-6th 4:17.11 8th-4:10.03 10th-4:21.55
3200m-This is going on the assumption that Russell, Harriman and Leidel are running the 1600.
Wilson*
Barchet*
Webb*
Quinn*
Macauley*
Collins*
Norris*
Stratman*
Just out Bodine. This will go out conservative-4:42 at the mile. 15 guys should be there. Someone will inject a little pace with 2-3 laps to go. That will probably be Wilson and/or Barchet. The top 6 will seperate with MaCauley, Collins and Bodine fighting for the last 2 spots. 1st=9:15.55, 6th=9:16.33, 8th=9:23.44, 9th=9:23.48.
Weather looks ideal for this race-56, 4 mph winds.
Should be a great weekend for distance running.
You make an interesting point on the 1600/3200 double, not many do it because it usually doesn't go well. Stratman probably won't be in the 3200, isn't there a 3 teammate limit? WCH has 7 qualified but it will probably be Russell, Barchet and Collins. Stratman, Knapp and Moy will probably be in the 1600. Leidal may be needed on the DTW 4x800, which should be very good. If so, I'm not sure where that leaves him for individual events but I believe he is qualified for 800, 1600 and 3200 so he's got plenty of choices. Russell is interesting, I'd prefer to see him focus on one event. Someone posted earlier that McCauley is hurt, but that might just be a rumor. These should be some tight races with the favorites breaking away in the last 300 and probably a surprise or two.
DeleteThe CRN 4x8 was wilson, zingarini, simmons, emery. Only simmons will be in the relay with Davish, Dupree, and Abrohms.
DeleteRTJ - where does it state that D1 Districts is not a scratch meet? I've read the D1 rules published at district-1.net and all they talk about is if you do not run an event in the State Meet for which you qualified ...
DeletePondel is entered in 4x8, 16, & 32. Who knows if he'll do all, but Etrain made a good point. If Pondel is confident to step to the line, his talent will take him to something good
ReplyDeleteDistrict 1 distance doubling looks kind of rough. The 4x800 and 1600 or 800 are doable but anything else doesn't have a lot of time in between events. 3200 and 1600 could be done, but that's a tough double any day.
ReplyDelete