State Predictions: AA 3200m

Hoping to do one of these for all the events. AA stuff is far from my specialty but I'll give it a shot because the races should be sick. None perhaps more so than the 3200m at Ship which will feature some of the most talented AA boys of all time and is highlighted by the two big guns Rico Galassi and Brendan Shearn who have run 9:10 and 9:04 respectively and have qualifying times under 9:20. No disrespect meant to Sam Williams who has been phenomenal this year as well as the other members of this field, I anticipate the winner of this race to be one of these two men.

Both of these boys have ran great this season and both finished 1-2 a year ago in another dramatic race to the finish. Each man has a state title in XC as well. Galassi is going all in for the 32 for the second straight year. He has dropped the 16 to focus on the 32 and be as fresh as possible against Brendan. Galassi has shown that he has the potential to still drop time as he has soloed some of his best efforts of the year, dominating fields and still running fast times. He also has proven he has solid speed, running under 4:20 on multiple occasions for 1600. Meanwhile Shearn is running the 16 and the 32 as he has the past 2 years at the state championship and the 16 has yet to effect his performance as he was 2nd and 1st the last two years. Shearn has big race experience and two state titles and has proven he can close well have a fast pace. One thing Brendan has certainly never lacked is heart and he will lay it all on the line to try and defend his title.

I picked Galassi to win last year and I may have been a year to early on my call, but I'm going with Shearn for the W this year even still. For me Shearn has constantly proved me wrong this year with a big run at indoor states after recovering from injury, a sub 8:30 at Penn and then a 9:04 victory at Henderson. I see this one being quite close, but I see Shearn, ultimately, coming out on top for the second straight year.

After the big two there is still plenty of talent in this group. Sam Williams, who comes in with a 9:12 PR, is my pick for third. Sam is a strong runner and I fully expect him to stick his nose in this race throughout. He is easily the most likely candidate to disrupt the big Shearn v. Galassi duel.

These are kind of the big 3 names in this group but also in the mix out front should be a pack that includes Luke Jones, Barrett Kemp, Griffin Molino, Aaron Valoroso, Ryan Archer and Kieran Sutton. Jones is an established XC stud who dominates the trails and shows up at states. Barrett Kemp had a bit of a down year last track season but has come back with a vengenance and quietly has run some very solid 32s under 9:30. Valoroso was a big story with a few low 9:20s marks but was off a bit at districts. I expect him to bounce back this weekend. Ryan Archer was an indoor state qualifier and is a defending medalist who should stick his nose in it. Griffin Molino is the youngster of the group. Just a sophomore he has gradually dropped time and stuck his nose in it with Sam Williams last weekend and came away with a big PR of 9:26. I like this kid, he is young, but not afraid of the moment. Sometimes being young and blissfully unaware is a great gift on the big stage.

There are a lot of other guys who's names I don't know as well who could definitely step up in the big moment. Jeremy Parsons from Maplewood is a nice sleeper. Any district 2 guys could sneak up in there and grab a medal and the District 7 guys are definitely underrated just because I don't really recognize names.

Ultimately when the dust clears here is how I see the medal positions being filled. I expect a bit of a tactical performance in the heat with a very fast last mile so who knows how close the times will be but here is what I got.

1. Shearn 9:09
2. Galassi 9:11
3. Williams 9:21
4. Molino 9:24
5. Kemp 9:26
6. Valoroso 9:29
7. Jones 9:32
8. Archer 9:38

Haupt, Sutton, McGuire, and Parsons stand out as names that could surprise. Leave your predictions below and let me know what you think!