etrain quotes

Want to see where I was right and wrong all season? Well I was kind of curious so I went back and looked at some of my old posts and came up with some things that I thought summed up my accuracy on the season. There is no way I can say with any sort of confidence that I was dead on at any point this season. It was extremely unpredictable throughout and the wild ride ended in probably the most fitting way with a huge suprise by North Penn and Conner Quinn.

etrain's quotes: September

"First off I would like to give my sincere congrats to Mt. Lebanon on earning the top spot on Penntrack's team rankings this week. They completely deserve this honor and have had some very nice early season races.

That being said, here's my stat:

North Allegheny hasn't lost at WPIALs since 2004"

"Conner Quinn may be ranked too high at this point in the season."

etrain's quotes: October

"5. North Penn- MacCauley, Trimble, Davis
So North Penn. Finished where at Carlisle last year? Finished where at Districts? Sure their 4-5 hasn't shown me much but I know their top three were all in the top 30 or so at Districts and the school is frickin huge, they can burn a few guys at top mileage to get a solid set of 4-5 runners. They peak at the right time and I can drop a huge load of stats on you about how awesome they have been at Districts the past few years even when people expect them to do squat (see 2010 District One Championships). And no one expected them to do squat this year. They were my pick to win Districts and I am really having a hard time letting go of that (they are still my pick to win by the way, I don't back out of things I say very easily, I'm just stubborn like that) Jacky Mac was the talk of the town in the spring. Don't forget about the kid people, he's still going to be good. Dan Davis has been solid as well, another potential state medalist wearing the baby blue."

1. Cardinal O'Hara
"Only thing I can find that concerns me is that if a guy gets hurt in their top 5 they don't have much of a 6/7 that I have seen to come save the day. We will see, but definitely the #1 team."

"District 3 Championships 10/26
AAA: The top 9 runners from a season ago have graduated, leaving the race wide open for a new face to make a name for himself. That new face looks to be Connor Strynkowski at this point in the season, after a terrific track season last spring, a hot streak of solid races in the past month, including a great run at Gettysburg and a win at Mid Penns."

"Burke has also been to the big meets and has shown a lot of potential for a breakout performance at this meet. Burke was 31 seconds back from Wilkinson a year ago, this year things should be much tighter."

"I've always been a Jack MacCauley fan. I think he will be top 5 at districts."

"3. North Allegheny
I have a lot of confidence is this program, they look to be on the rise after a great day at TSTCA especially for Steiner who got a huge win and looks to really be rounding into shape. Unfortunately I just don't see how they can beat Lebo at this stage. Appman can definitely run a bit faster, maybe Bojarski too, but Lebo has the same kind of ifs and buts."

District One Sleepers
"Pete Downs (finally showing the potential I thought he would show at Viking. Trad etrain being way to early on people), Jack Huemmler (maybe I'm making too much out of DELCOs, but I hope not), Ian Yankuso (who? Exactly, they are killed sleepers for a reason people), Sam Webb (if Kevin Kelly thinks the guy is gonna have a big race, how can I not think so), and Joesph O'Such (great at Paul Short, not so much anywhere else, lucky for him, Districts is a lot like Paul Short)."

"Quinn bombed last year at Districts so let's hope this stage isn't too scary for him again."

"So I've got Drew, depending on course conditions and how the race plays out he can scare 15:20. Hibbs for second, we shall see how it ends up because he has been throwing up lots of red flags as of late, but I trust his experience and gamerness to pull it out."

"Can't sleep on Brett Kelly. He's a state medalist last year, top 10 at Districts the past two years, and oh yeah he goes to the same school that Jason Weller and Mark Dennin went to. Put away your pillows boys."

"Like I said Israel is my big sleeper this year so I'm high on him for this race." (one week early)

"etrain not picking Magaha"

"1. Brendan Shearn
2. Nate Tallada
3. Barrett Kemp
4. Sam Williams
5. Ryan Smathers
6. Curt Jewett
7. Luke Jones
8. Jared Schatz
9. Shawn Wolfe
10. Rico Golassi"

"1. Logan Steiner
2. Drew Magaha
3. Conner Quinn
4. Max Norris
5. Dan Jaskowak
6. Brent Kennedy
7. Mike Runco
8. Brett Kelly
9. Alex Moran
10. Sean Burke
11. Ned Willig
12. Tom Coyle
13. Sam Hibbs
14. Aaron Wilkinson
15. Connor Strynkowski
16. Connor Harriman
17. Korey Replogle
18. Dan Savage
19. Dylan Mountain
20. Dan Davis
21. Ean DiSilvio
22. Francis Ferruzzi
23. Jeff Groh
24. Mike Billotta
25. Jack MaCauley"

etrain quotes: November
"The other guy who reminds me of that pair of Micikas and Ayers is Dominic Deluca the sophomore from Dallas, definitely worth a flyer."

"I'm still on the North Penn bandwagon folks! Yeah not quite as a team but the individuals out front I like a lot. How about Jack MacCauley for a big bounce back race? Definitely could happen, not extremely confident about it, but it may happen. I'm more pumped to see what Dan Davis can do. People forget he was 29th or so a year ago. He had a much better stretch run this year than last year so states could be very interesting. Its hard to imagine North Penn without a medalist at states for the second straight year. Oh and in deeper leagues Chris Trimble isn't a bad pick, kids talented."

"Some deeper sleepers
The NA pack
Kevin Tramlgini
Ryan Boccabella
Ross Wilson
Chris Muldoon
Matt Craft
Nate Kreider"

"Hate (kind of a strong word, its just a form of expression people don't mean it like that)
Andrew Kutcha- Baldwin always runs well at WPIALs but they have struggled to find success on the states course (see Bishop, Cecala, Logan, Adley, Hobart ...)
The district 6 guys- Its gonna be a problem having raced on Monday rather than Saturday, it effects your training enough to slip you a couple spots
Alex Moran- hasn't had a legit big race all season, it's tough to imagine the tables turing all of a sudden
Dan Jaskowak- I think he hasn't raced anyone in too long and honestly, no offfense, I don't see how he can win this race regardless of how it plays out. Maybe I just don't know the courses well enough, but I can't see how so many people are as high as they are on him."

"Love
Brett Kelly- Always great on the state course
Connor Harriman- Haven't forgotten that 2nd place finish at pre states over quinn, magaha etc.
Connor Strynkowski- I can't help but feel the guy is going to bounce back in a big way"

"Here's some guys I'm nervous about going into the state championships:

Jeff Groh- Ran awesome at the District 3 Championships but historically District 3 Champions on the AAA side have struggled to stay on top the next week at States. It is very tough running the Hershey course two weeks in a row. Look at names like Alex Galli, Kyle Hurston, Vince McNally, they all had some struggles the next weekend. Groh's also a young guy who is in the championship mix for the first time in his career.

The Henderson guys. So yes Coach Kelly and the Henderson system always do very well at states, and always peak at the right time. However, I'm not sure I see a Will Kellar out of this mix of Henderson guys this year. Kellar finished 17th at States as a Sophomore, but he had a solid run at Hershey under his belt already and was traiining with Senior leader Chris Aldrich. Now these sophomores have the pressure of leading their team as they try to get on the podium and, although they almost all have run the states course before, they did not have a huge amount of success. I'm nervous the pressure on this big stage along with perhaps too fast of a first mile could end up really biting these Henderson guys like Russell, Haugh and Collins if you buy too high.

Sam Hibbs. I think the kid is going to go very high in drafts because he has the huge upside of being clutch and showing up and competing for the win, just like Ryan Gil a year ago. However, Hibbs has not shown any flashes of brilliance the past two weeks and its not because he is injured/recovering from injury (I think anyway) which already makes this a different situation than Gil. Also there is reason to believe Gil was saving his best for states (its the only race he ran legitimately well at all year, so I think he was holding back at Districts). For Hibbs the upside is he gets you 1st overall in an amazing day. The downside, however, is huge and arguably much more likely. That is he finishes outside the top 10 and maybe even outside the top 20 if he continues this downhill climb. I don't think its worth taking that big of a chance on a top 3-5 pick in the draft. I'm much higher on his teammate Conner Quinn, who i would definitely draft before Hibbs"

"North Penn and Great Valley are both high on my list of teams I'm confident in so they could surprise but I just don't think they are as good as these other teams so as much as I like them, I don't see them really finishing higher than 5-8 ish"

"I'm worried about Henderson. They are so young out front and so inexperienced on this kind of stage with this kind of pressure. They came through at districts but states is a different animal. Great coaching and a great system, so they can easily prove me wrong, but it doesn't mean I'm not scared"

"I'm not seeing a huge day from Savage or their freshman James, but I do think the other guys will run well, especially Billotta. I think that should seal their state championship hopes."

Believe it or not I said all of that, you can go back and it look it up. Not too bad but definitely some huge blemishes on the resume. That's why its fun to play the game I suppose.