Never Too Soon Is It

So first of all, I just wanted to let everyone know that I facebook messaged just about every state medalist I could find and asked them if they would like to share anything about their states experience for the blog. Some stories from these responses will be coming out soon. If you would like to contribute your thoughts on states, even if I haven't contacted you or you weren't a medalist, feel free to message me and I can add your thoughts into the posts I will be making over the next week or so.

I will be breaking down the races in the near future, just giving my opinions on things and looking back at old rankings and predictions and seeing what stands out. I just want to learn a little bit more about the meet (since I was not there unfortunately) beforing going to in depth.

But now that I got that housecleaning out of the way, I want to talk about next year. Yes, this year just ended, but heck, I love talking about speculatory things, rather than pure facts so I will start off my states coverage with what this means for the future.

I'll start off with AA because quite frankly, we are picking up right where we left off. 24 out of the top 30 runners return for next cross country season, and 22 of those returners will be Seniors in 2012. The entire top 5 is back, which includes Brendan Shearn, who has been dominate this season, only losing at Paul Short.

The defending champion has to be the favorite to win the next season. However, Ryan Smathers was the top returner a year ago, coming off an excellent track season, yet he could never put it together this season and finished 5th for the second straight year.

Brendan certainly made a more significant jump than a lot of these runners, Williams and Smathers and Mullen all beat him a year ago at states. Luke Jones also made a pretty sizable jump to the front, taking 2nd place, losing by just 2 seconds, and giving hope for maybe a surprise in 2012.

The boys from Northeast Bradford are both back, and although Jewett seems to race very well all season, the state course has bested him now on 3 occasions. Sam Williams, meanwhile, has excelled on the course, and has potential to surprise people on race day.

And how about Barrett Kemp? He achieved a lot this season as well and although he didn't quite pull through at states, he was still a top 15 finisher (13th) and really made noise all season (a couple of guys had him as an upset pick to win the championship).

Heck, its hard to keep track of everyone coming back so there are going to be names left out, but I'll throw down one more: Hunter Johnston. Really made a lot of great improvements this season and at the beginning/middle of the season he really looked strong. He faded down the stretch, but with an extra season under his belt he could definitely make noise at the state championships.

Defending champs Quaker Valley lose 3 out of their top 4 while North East, Holy Redeemer, Masterman, and Canton return 3-5 out of their top 5, Canton returning all 5. Redeemer doesn't have the front runner North East has which will come in handy. District 3 champs Anville Celona return their entire top 5 including 2 state medalists. A bit off an off day for their normal #3 man really cost their team at staes.

Now on to the AAA scene, where things will certainly be a bit harder to digest. A lot of guys still return, especially out front with 3 out of the top 4 guys coming back, including defending state champion Conner Quinn. Quinn didn't get to the top the same way Shearn did, he was a pretty big upset. Now the question becomes will he be a Shawn Cavanaugh and Ian Gottesfield or a Craig Miller.

Quinn will have his handsful next year with probably my break out performer of the year Dan Jaskowak. I will say it now officially on record, this kid is legit. I didn't believe it, I wrote him off all season, but he was 2nd at the state championships over a lot of very talented runners and he will not be afraid of the big stage next year.

You can make a strong argument Jaskowak, not Quinn, will be the favorite in 2012.

Brent Kennedy's 7th place finish at states is the highest finish a sophomore has had at states since Vince McNally in 2005 (3rd). Kennedy becomes the top returner out of the WPIAL, which has produced state champion Ryan Gil and Footlocker Finalists Rad Gunzenhauser and Zach Hebda (along with Gil) over the previous two seasons. I wasn't surprised to see Kennedy up this high, he's been mixing it up with the top guys all season, and eventually things were going to click.

Now how about the PCL guys? The top two finishes by PCL individuals ever at the state championship were turned in by Tom Coyle and Dan Savage. Coyle, who had previously bested Savage twice in a row at Belmont, may have made a tactical error going to the front so early in the race. Meanwhile Savage leaves as one of states biggest surprises, running a very smart race.

This is Coyle's first real season mixing it up in XC. For Savage this also a somewhat new experience, although he was a top runner on a top team a year ago. Certainly these two have not had the previous seasons of work guys like Conner Quinn have had, which should make things interesting in a season.

Still can't count out guys like Jeff Groh and Max Norris who had big District races, but struggled at states. They have a lot of potential to make noise in 2012.

Alec Kunzweiler catapulted into the mix for state champion in a season as well, after a relatively low key season in comparison to the other guys out front, Kunzweiler stayed under the radar until finally popping his 14th place finish at the state championship. He was 9th at the District 3 Championship just over a week earlier.

This is Kunzweiler's first real cross country season where he has been this competitive after a break out track season last spring, similar to the aforementioned Coyle of LaSalle.

North Penn was the surprise state champions in 2011. Surprise probably isn't a strong enough term to describe the upset they pulled over the nationally ranked Cardinal O'Hara squad. However, North Penn got a lot of preseason talk. I said myself I thought they were underrated in the preseaon polls. I thought they would peak at the right time and I thought they would give Henderson a run for their money at Districts. But they didn't quite do that. So I jumped off the bandwagon and I got stunned at States.

But the point is, they didn't come from complete obscurity to take the title. They had three very good runners out front and they built around those guys through to 6 guys. And they returned practically their entire top 7 coming into the season. So yeah we knew they'd be good.

So Cardinal O'Hara, the best team all year besides states (when admittedly it matters most) returning 4-5 of their top 5 (I am fairly convinced Bilotta is a Senior this season and that's a type-o, but he was listed as a Junior at Distrits too so perhaps I missed a memo somewhere) is going to be very good yet again. They should be the favorites next fall for the state title.

However, North Penn will still be good, returning MacCauley and host of youngsters with valuable championship experience. Also their school is huge. They will find guys. I don't think North Penn will even be District champs in a year, but you just can't rule a team like this out at the beginning of the season.

North Allegheny loses A LOT. There young guy Seel got some valuable experience to compete tough next season, but let's be honest here, they are going to struggle to mix it up with top teams in the WPIAL, let alone the stae, on paper. But hey, they are also huge and always good, so who knows what we will be saying after track season.

The team to watch in 2012 will be the West Chester Henderson boys squad. They return their top 3 from districts (all sophomores) and their #3 from states, while they also will get back stud 2010 freshman Reiny Barchet from injury. These young sophomores will now all be experienced juniors, aging in a very good system. Russell and Haugh learned a lot this season. I didn't expect them to have a huge showing at states this year with their lack of experience, but next year they should be very dangerous.

And hey how about CR North? Emery gets sick and has a rough finish to the season but the team still pulls out a 6th place finish at states. They are another very well coached team and they return a lot of weapons including Emery and Ross Wilson and James Zingarini who had very impressive stretch runs and great finishes at states. CR North returns their entire top 5 from states.

Its kind of a similar story down the board, out of the top 10 teams, all but Holy Ghost Prep (10th) return at least 4 guys. CR North returns 5 out of their 5, O'Hara returns 4 to 5 out of their top 5, 11th place finishers Cumberland Valley return their entire top 7, LaSalle and Henderson return their top 3 etc etc. The point is the team title should be very competitve next year after a somewhat down year this season (132 points to win the title is a decent amount in my opinion).

-train