I figure since this has been the main topic of discussion for everyone trying to put together last minute entries into the contest, a little bit of a stat breakdown of how things have gone in the past won't hurt. I'm sorry AA kids but this next section is going to be exclusively AAA, it's what I know best and I know all the medalists of the last 5 years in order by pure memory so that will speed up the process a tad. First I'm just going to start off listing the medalists by school, in terms of which school is most prevelant. One * means Junior year, two means sophomore year. These are the medalists from the last 5 years:
West Chester Henderson (8)- Aldrich*, Ferry, Jervis, Aldirch, Kellar**, Kellar*, Kellar, Andrews
North Penn (7)- Montijo, Miles**, Hoagland, Miles*, Bernitt*, Miles, Bernitt
Coatesville (7)- Dawson, Panulla, Dawson, Ward, Leonard, Mahoney, Rosato*
North Allegheny (7)- Jacob*, Jacob, Taylor, Gil**, Gil*, Gil, Steiner
North Hills (5)- Kush*, Silienks*, Hebda, Kush, Silienks
Altoona (5)- Endress**, Fischer, Endress*, Endress, Replogle*
Hatboro Horsham (5) - D. Hibbs, Topper, S. Hibbs**, S. Hibbs*, Quinn**
Boyertown (4)- Weller, Dennin*, Dennin, Kelly*
Perkiomen Valley (3)- Tarsnane*, Tarnsnane, Perozze
Unionville (3)- Springer, Burkhardt*, Fischer
Wissahickon (3)- Miller, Crits, Farrell
Seneca Valley (3)- Stauffer*, Cipro, Stauffer
CR North (3)- Wallace, Campbell*, Campbell
Tunkhannock (3)- Ayers**, Ayers*, Ayers
CB West (3)- Jones*, Jones, Scarpello
CB East (3)- J. Izewski*, J. Izewski, A. Izewski
West Chester East (2)- LaColla*, LaColla
Mt. Lebanon (2)- Gunzenhauser, Moran*
Lower Merion (2)- Furcht, Berman
Conestoga Valley (2)- McNally**, McNally
St. Joe's Prep (2)- O'Sullivan*, O'Sullivan
Pittsburgh Central Catholic (2)- VanKooten, Gasior
Whitehall (2)- Kacyon*, Kacyon
Parkland (2)- Stepp, Gillette
LaSalle (2)- O'Kane*, Trainer
Grove City (2)- Kildoo**, Kildoo
Dallastown (2)- Lockwood, Moyer
Meadville (2)- Ross, Steiner**
Bishop Shannahan (2)- Bodary*, Bodary
Carlisle (2)- Hurston, Pope
Strath Haven (1)- Speare
Baldwin (1)- Bishop*
Valley View (1)- Wilkinson*
Central Dauphin (1)- Schrom
O'Hara (1)- Garrity
Father Judge (1)- Kehl
Crestwood (1)- Micikas
Gateway (1)- Krystek
Dubois (1)- Plaszenski
Exeter (1)- Greth
CB South (1)- Gregor
Upper Dublin (1)- Palmisano
Holy Ghost Prep (1)- Pierce
Owen J Roberts (1)- McClimmon
Hazleton Area (1)- Guest
Red Lion (1)- Kareis
Neshaminy (1)- MacDonald
Blue Mountain (1)- Reilly
Cedar Cliff (1)- Johnston
Canon Mac (1)- Gregory
Hempfield (1)- Hull
Governor Mifflin (1)- Mohn*
Indian Valley (1)- Monroe
Gettysburg (1)- Beegle
So now that we got this massive list out of the way, just to prove the point of where most medalists have come from, I'm going to lay down some other stats about these 125 guys. For starters lets look at a Districts breakdown.
D1- 19+18+8+8+8 =61
D2- 1+0+2+1+2 =6
D3- 1+3+3+4+2 =13
D6- 0+0+1+3+2 =6
D7- 2+4+4+5+7 =22
D9- 0+0+1+0+0 =1
D10- 1+0+1+1+1 =4
D11- 1+0+3+1+1 =6
D12- 0+0+2+2+2 =6
Clearly District 1 has been slighlty inflated by the first two years (2006 and 2007 where they snagged a large majority of the medalist spots). District 7 is the next most prevelant, coming on strong the past couple years, and District 3 is also ahead of the curve. It is worth noting that the PCL did not join the PIAA until the 2008 season. Assuming they keep up their pace of 2 medalists a year they would be at a total of 10, making them the 4th highest district in terms of medalists.
Now we will check in on the classes of the individuals who recieve medals.
Freshman 0+0+0+0+0 =0
Sophomores 0+2+4+3+1 =10
Juniors 7+5+6+9+6 =33
Seniors 18+18+15+13+18 =82
This one is obvious. Experience and age and developement helps you perform well on the tough states meet course. About 2 sophomores a year meadal at the big dance, and a freshman hasn't done it since McNally. Seniors from the big districts are usually safe bets to pick to medal at states.
Now here's an interesting question: how many returning medalists medal again the next year? Well there were 43 returning medalists over the past 5 years (the 33 Juniors and the 10 sophomores), but 7 of those came from this past season and we do not know how they did this year so they are thrown out leaving 36. (9 sophs and 25 jrs)
2006-1007 7/7 Juniors, 6/7 finished higher than the previous season
2007-2008 4/7 (2/2 Sophs, 2/5 Juniors), 3/7 Finished higher than the previous season
2008-2009 7/10 (3/4 Sophs, 4/6 Juniors), 3/10 Finished higher than the previous season
2009-2010 9/12 (2/3 Sophs, 7/9 Juniors), 8/12 Finished higher than the previous season
So what we can conclude from this is not much definitively. However, we can say that is highly likely that some of the 7 returners from last season will not finish as high as they did the previous season. In addition, a few of them may not even medal. Over the past 4 seasons 20/36 have improved, barely over half of the returnees. That means between Quinn, Hibbs, Steiner, Moran, Wilkinson, Kelly, and Replogle about half of them won't finish as high as they did the previous season. My money would probably be on Hibbs and Moran out of the group, last few are toss ups.
Relating some things back to track, 4 out of the last 5 state champions in the 3200m were medalists the previous fall. Burkhardt is the one exception, and he was a medalist 2 previous falls ago. Therefore, 4 out of the last 5 state champions in the 3200m were medalists their Junior cross country season, before winnining the title their senior season (the one exception here is another Unionville guy, Matt Fischer).
There have been very few true 800 guys that have ever medaled at states, its mostly just milers and 2 milers. From my own opinion the only mainly 800 guys who have medaled at states in the past 5 years are Chris Ferry and Zack Montijo. Endress was the only guy with an 800 PR under 1:52.4 at the time of getting his state medal. The only other guys with PRs even in that ball park over 800m are probably Palmisano and Crits. I may have missed another name in that mix, so I apologize about that if I did. Neither of those guys had 800 PRs that quick when they medaled. Palmisano ran 1:52 as a Junior but failed to medal as a Senior.
A runner who is a primary miler has not won states in the past 5 years. 2 out of the 5 have run very quick over 1600m, but all are mainly 2 milers. The exception is Brad Miles who ran around 4:18 and 9:15 but they don't really compare to the times of the other guys who are all under 9:05. Weller and Gil both are in the 4:12s or so in terms of PR.
Hopefully this gets you thinking about the big dance tomorrow, I'm excited and looking forward to seeing how things play out and memorizing another set of medalists.
-train
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