More Matthew Berry

So last night I kinda had some other stuff going on so I had to cut things a little short with my fantasy draft analysis, but now that the draft is so close at hand (we are looking at Thursday night, still time to join the league just shoot me or Chris a facebook message), I figured I have to drop a few more names down here with my analysis. Here's some guys I'm nervous about going into the state championships:

Jeff Groh- Ran awesome at the District 3 Championships but historically District 3 Champions on the AAA side have struggled to stay on top the next week at States. It is very tough running the Hershey course two weeks in a row. Look at names like Alex Galli, Kyle Hurston, Vince McNally, they all had some struggles the next weekend. Groh's also a young guy who is in the championship mix for the first time in his career.

The Henderson guys. So yes Coach Kelly and the Henderson system always do very well at states, and always peak at the right time. However, I'm not sure I see a Will Kellar out of this mix of Henderson guys this year. Kellar finished 17th at States as a Sophomore, but he had a solid run at Hershey under his belt already and was traiining with Senior leader Chris Aldrich. Now these sophomores have the pressure of leading their team as they try to get on the podium and, although they almost all have run the states course before, they did not have a huge amount of success. I'm nervous the pressure on this big stage along with perhaps too fast of a first mile could end up really biting these Henderson guys like Russell, Haugh and Collins if you buy too high.

Sam Hibbs. I think the kid is going to go very high in drafts because he has the huge upside of being clutch and showing up and competing for the win, just like Ryan Gil a year ago. However, Hibbs has not shown any flashes of brilliance the past two weeks and its not because he is injured/recovering from injury (I think anyway) which already makes this a different situation than Gil. Also there is reason to believe Gil was saving his best for states (its the only race he ran legitimately well at all year, so I think he was holding back at Districts). For Hibbs the upside is he gets you 1st overall in an amazing day. The downside, however, is huge and arguably much more likely. That is he finishes outside the top 10 and maybe even outside the top 20 if he continues this downhill climb. I don't think its worth taking that big of a chance on a top 3-5 pick in the draft. I'm much higher on his teammate Conner Quinn, who I would definitely draft before Hibbs.

So just to round out my thoughts here I'll make a bit of lists here for a few love/hate guys just like my old Fantasy Football pal Matthew Berry.

Love
Brett Kelly- Always great on the state course
Connor Harriman- Haven't forgotten that 2nd place finish at pre states over quinn, magaha etc.
Connor Strynkowski- I can't help but feel the guy is going to bounce back in a big way

Hate (kind of a strong word, its just a form of expression people don't mean it like that)
Andrew Kutcha- Baldwin always runs well at WPIALs but they have struggled to find success on the states course (see Bishop, Cecala, Logan, Adley, Hobart ...)
The district 6 guys- Its gonna be a problem having raced on Monday rather than Saturday, it effects your training enough to slip you a couple spots
Alex Moran- hasn't had a legit big race all season, it's tough to imagine the tables turing all of a sudden
Dan Jaskowak- I think he hasn't raced anyone in too long and honestly, no offfense, I don't see how he can win this race regardless of how it plays out. Maybe I just don't know the courses well enough, but I can't see how so many people are as high as they are on him.

Some deeper sleepers
The NA pack
Kevin Tramlgini
Ryan Boccabella
Ross Wilson
Chris Muldoon
Matt Craft
Nate Kreider


Remember all my analysis is based of where other people are drafting them. Just because I love Adam Katora and I'm low on Dan Jaskowak does not mean you should be drafting them at the same time. I just think Jaskowak should be drafted lower than he is projected and Tim higher, it's pretty much that simple.

Good luck to everyone at states and in the predictions!

as always,
train