Specifics-3000m

Well folks it may be my birthday today, but that does not mean I'm taking the day off. It appeared from my recent research that some people want to know my thoughts more specifically about the events this indoor season. So let's see what I can do.

Purely by best outdoor 3200m PR these are the top returners:
1. Dustin Wilson 9:02
2. Andrew Kuchta 9:16
3. Quinn Devlin 9:20
4. Sam Hibbs 9:22
5. Brendan Shearn 9:23
6. Connor Strynkowski 9:24
7. Logan Steiner 9:24
8. Ned Willig 9:28
9. Jeff Groh 9:30
10. Barrett Kemp 9:33

Also for the 3200m/3000m, XC season is definitely a good indicator of how fast you can run. For as long as I can remember the state champion in the 3200m went on to run under 9:20 in the 3200m if they stayed healthy. So here is a reminder of my top 10 rankings for the end of the XC season:

1. Dustin Wilson
2. Conner Quinn
3. Dan Jaskowak
4. Drew Magaha
5. Brendan Shearn
6. Logan Steiner
7. Brett Kelly
8. Luke Jones
9. Dan Savage
10. Tom Coyle

And also an important factor worth noting, not all the best guys outdoor are fit indoors, so here are the top 10 returning 3k times from an indoor season ago.

1. Dustin Wilson 8:52
2. Aaron Wilkinson 8:57
3. Logan Steiner 8:58
4. Ned Willig 9:00
5. Brett Kelly 9:01
6. Conner Quinn 9:03
7. Sami Aziz 9:04
8. Owen Glatts 9:05
9. Brian Shields 9:05
10. George Kelly 9:06

There's a boatload of returners in the 9:05-9:10 range which will make this very interesting.

So here's what I got for you preview wise folks.

Dustin Wilson is definitely the class of the field just as he was the class of the state a year. Running Footlocker will certainly hinder his training, but enough to put him down enough pegs to lose against what I see as his competition.

However, if Willig or Magaha were to move up and run the 3k fresh I think either of them could beat Wilson head to head. Wilson has more strength but if the race is at all tactical the kickers could take home the gold. That being said, I'm assuming Willig is going DMR, maybe the mile too, but definitely not the 3k, and if Magaha chooses to try a double (and I think there's not much of a point to not doubling back) he will go mile-8.

Conner Quinn is the defending state champ and has a nice 9:03 on his resume from a year ago, so its hard to count the guy out of being in the mix out front.

Aaron Wilkinson is the top returner from indoor states. Yes, you heard me right. Not a big name, but he is a very talented runner and was ready to go indoors a season ago. Hopefully he is ready to match that this year.

The AA guys and the guys like Jaskowak are tough to predict because quite frankly, I don't think a lot of them will have indoor seasons. Its just what I think. That being said, the talent is there to really make something happen.

Brett Kelly had one of the best last three races in the state in XC and he is always good indoors. Maybe too good indoors so that his outdoors suffers, but very good indoors. Kelly doesn't have a team and relays to weigh him down this season so if he chooses to go for the 3k I wouldn't be suprised if he runs in the 8:40s.

And now we get to the trickiest part of the program, the current Jrs and where they fall in to place in the whole 3k scene. Quinn, as mentioned before, should be very good. MacCauley is going to be in the mix as well as far as I see it. Outside chance he is like Sam Bernitt a year ago and snags all state and runs in the 8:50-8:40 range. Savage of course is talented as well. O'Hara does a lot of work with relays, and they have a good team, so Savage may be hindered by that. Ultimately though, it seems like he will make it to states and compete with the guys for a medal.

I really like Max Norris for this indoor season, I'm high on him after a great XC season with the exception of one (admittedly, the most important) race at states. Norris has got great speed of a 4:19 mile and if he choses to move up to the 3k and stay away from Willig and Magaha, he could do some damage. Really Norris could damage in either race.

Harriman, Ferruzzi, Coyle (think he will run the mile if anything), Kunzweiler (another 800-mile type), Emery could all be factors in this race as well.

And believe it or not I haven't touched on half the talent pool in the state. Out west Steiner and Kuchta are the class of the field, but Kennedy and Runco could both surprise with very fast times. Heck, George Kelly is a top 10 returner, what's to say he won't be under 9 minutes and surprise some people. I think Runco will probably opt for the mile, but he proved he's a force this past XC season, so it wouldn't surprise me if he dropped a fast 3k.

Plus we got the pair of Altoona guys who can mix it up indoors. They both skipped out on Footlockers to get a head start on training and Altoona has a pretty good resume of running fast indoors (see Endress, Wade or Gehret, Brady or the DMR in general).

And yes I'm sure some people are misssing from the list of names here but cmon people there's only so much I can do.

Finally, I figured its only right to do some rankings, I'm going to make only a top 10 list and yes some very good, talented runners will be left off. I'm only going to put runners who I think will focus on the 3k on this list so guys like Runco, Norris, Willig, Magaha are all out for right now. Also left off the guys who I don't think are running indoors like Shearn, Jaskowak, Strynkowski, etc. Therefore, here's what I got:

1. Wilson
2. Steiner
3. Kelly
4. Quinn
5. Hibbs
6. Wilkinson
7. Kuchta
8. MacCauley
9. Savage
10. Mountain

worth noting: Devlin? not sure if he's running indoors yet, so just opted to leave him off. Definitely think the kid can compete for the win/well earned second if Wilson is in prime time, if he's healthy, but that's kind of a big if.