I've got Hershey, CV, Lower Dauphin, and Central Dauphin in that order qualifying for the state championships. Everyone not on those teams that I have listed up until Sankey gets a state qualifying individual spot in my mind. I'm feeling a big day for Hershey yet again. I really respect this team a lot. They have been very consistent and their top guys run very consistent. There is not a lot of variation from this team. I feel the District Championship is much more important to them than Cumberland Valley and Lower Dauphin has too much variation with Groh being a little streaky and Nissley having struggled on this course in the past. We shall see it should be fun to watch. Any questions, comments, etc. leave them below.
1.
Jeff Groh
2.
Liam Corcoran
3.
Evan Williams
4.
Ryan Hertzog
5.
Patrick Reilly
6.
Nate Hamilton
7.
Alec Kunzweiler
8.
Harrison Schettler
9.
Cole Nissley
10.
Zach Brehm
11.
Aiden Demko
12.
Aaron Gebhart
13.
Nathan Repetz
14.
Aaron Lauer
15.
Corbin Padgett
16.
Jordan Crawford
17.
Danny Klinik
18.
Connor Zimmerman
19.
James Wood
20.
Alex Coburn
21.
John Bitner
22.
Caleb Gatchell
23.
James Martin
24.
Michael Urban
25.
Ben Mueller
26.
Jacob Connors
27.
Dalton Trump
28.
Matthew Sankey (First one to miss)
29.
Sean Moyer
corcoran is aa this yr,penn manor and gov. mifflin might battle for 4th spot
ReplyDeleteI'm so tempted to write a long post about all my disagreements (there are many) but I feel like I'd come off as being very biased towards GM/Berks County. So I'll just sit here discontentedly twiddling my thumbs.
ReplyDeletePost your list. D3 in my opinion is tough to predict right now. So many of these guys are very up and down. For example Jordan Crawford was 2nd at County's but 22nd at Mid-Penns. He could be top 5 in this race if he runs like he did 2 weeks ago, or 30th if he ran like he did last week. Many guys are similar to this, even Groh is up and down.
DeleteMy list will be posted in a couple hours. I got many different picks from Etrain
--ForrestCRN
The county race was an easy meet for some teams. The PIAA made teams run a certain number of races to be able to run at districts so a number of teams did not take the race seriously
Deletethe 4 best teams are in the mid penn the 5th runner on the berks teams above will have to run well for a chance but i have watched d3 pretty close this yr and etrain is right on
ReplyDeleteGovernor Mifflin dropped a 48-second spread at Berks Championships. Impressive enough, but keep in mind that their #1 is a serious threat to win the district, so that spread is even better than it seems. Chambersburg won with a 1:10 spread last year behind a froth runner who got 7th,, I don't think there's any indication that Mifflin's #5 isn't good enough to put them into the State meet.
ReplyDelete*Front runner
ReplyDeleteWill there be a district 2 or 11 preview?
ReplyDeleteI think we can all just agree that D3 is so close that all of the top 3 teams can win
ReplyDeleteDepends who you say the top three are, doesn't it? If you say Hershey, CV, and Mifflin, then yeah I would agree.
ReplyDeleteMifflin will not be a top three team, they will be fourth
DeleteSo you're saying that LD is not a top 3 team
DeleteI don't know what your trying to say. LD will be 3rd, Hershey and CV will be 1 and 2, while Mifflin will be 4th
DeleteHow about AA?
ReplyDelete1. Jeff Groh, Jr Lower Dauphin
ReplyDelete2. Evan Williams, Sr Gov. Mifflin
3. Liam Corcoran, Sr James Buchnan
4. Ryan Hertzog, Sr South Western
5. Nate Hamilton, Sr Hershey
6. Patrick Reilly, Jr Dallastown
7. Alec Kunzweiler, Sr Cumberland Valley
8. Harrison Schettler, Sr Penn Manor
9. Cole Nissley, Jr Lower Dauphin
10. Aaron Gebhart, So New Oxford
11. Jonathan Bitner, Sr Penn Manor
12. Zach Brehm, So Carlisle
13. Alex Coburn, Sr Cumberland Valley
14. Cabel Gatchell, Sr Red Lion
15. Aiden Demko, So Hershey
16. Jacob Connors, So Wilson
17. Nathan Repetz, Sr Cedar Cliff
18. Jared Luckanitz, So Gov. Mifflin
19. James Wood, Sr Central Dauphin
20. Xavier Sauvageau, Sr Littlestown
21. Jordan Crawford, Cedar Cliff
My bet is that Hershey steps it up and wins D3 this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if LD has a good race and takes 2nd, but I think that CV will beat them out. I think Coburn will race well to help them get into the second spot. If he and Kunzweiler get in the top 10 they have the potential to beat Hershey. For 4th place Central Dauphin has a really good pack, but I think Williams will step it up to help Gov. Mifflin beat out CD in a close race. (Yes, I only picked 13 of the 20 qualifiers out of this district. Gets fuzzy for me after about 15 and I don’t want to further embarrass myself)
--ForrestCRN
Just because you asked for it, Forrest, here's what I have to say. I won't pretend to be unbiased, because I am not. But frankly, I have a lot more faith in guys I've personally seen run and who I've seen perform well on a regular basis than I do guys who I only read about on Penntrack.
Delete1. Evan Williams
2. Patrick Reilly
3. Alec Kunzweiler
4. Ryan Hertzog
5. Jeff Groh
6. Harrison Schettler
7. Nate Hamilton
8. Zach Brehm
9. Aidan Demko
10. Matt Sankey
11.Nathan Repetz
12. Cole Nissley
13. Corbin Padgett
14. Aaron Gebhart
15. Alex Coburn
16. James Martin
17. Connor Zimmerman
18. Jordan Crawford
19. Sean Moyer
20. John Bitner
21. James Wood
22. Dalton Trump
23. Andrew Lesko
24. Caleb Gatchell
25. Ben Mueller
26. Danny Klink
27. Michael Urban
28. Jesse Mills
29. Xavier Sauvageau
I would put school names with the runners but I am tired and lazy. As far as schools go, however, I have:
1. Cumberland Valley
2. Hershey
3. Governor Mifflin
4. Lower Dauphin
You may all now begin to yell at me. Thank you and goodnight.
I'm just happy you admit being biased and acknowledge what school you are from. It is very nice to see people owning their picks.
DeleteOk well I got the first team right an the first four individuals just BARELY out of order. I'll take it. I had high hopes for Andrew Lesko but it just didn't happen, apparently he was sick, and I think that really hurt Mifflin's chances in the team race.
Delete1.Jeff Groh, Jr Lower Dauphin
ReplyDelete2.Evan Williams, Sr Gov. Mifflin
3.Nate Hamilton, Sr Hershey
4.Ryan Hertzog, Sr South Western
5.Alec Kunzweiler, Sr Cumberland Valley
6.Patrick Reilly, Jr Dallastown
7.Jordan Crawford, Sr Cedar Cliff
8.Zach Brehm, So Carlisle
9.Harrison Schettler, Sr Penn Manor
10.Jonathan Bitner, Sr Penn Manor
11.Aaron Gebhart, So New Oxford
12.Caleb Gatchell, Sr Red Lion
13.Corbin Padgett, Sr Carlisle
14.Aiden Demko, So Hershey
15.James Wood, Sr Central Dauphin
16.Alex Coburn, Sr Cumberland Valley
17.Nathan Repetz, Cedar Cliff
18.Jacob Connors, So Wilson
19.Xavier Sauvageau, Sr Littlestown
20.Jared Luckanitz, So Gov. Mifflin
Just so you guys know, Liam Corcoran isn't AAA but he'll probably get 2nd in AA to Vinny Todaro. And as for teams I think Hershey, LD, and CV has there spots locked which leaves Gov. Mifflin, Red Lion, Penn Manor, Central Dauphin and Carlisle fighting for the last spot. In all fairness though I do run for one of the teams who are fighting for the last spot and I personally don't think it will happen and it will probably be CD or Gov. Mifflin. I do have a soft spot for Carlisle though, they have (in my oppinion) the second best 1-2 in this district next to the LD boys, but if they can just get their next three guys to step it up by about 10 seconds I think they should be able to upset and get the last spot.
Nate Hamilton of Hershey has a good shot at winning it all. He will be right there just as we was in Mid Penn race with Vinny Todaro and Liam Cocoran.
ReplyDeleter u gonna do top 10 teams after this champ week? I'd like to see what you think after that
ReplyDeleteI thought Xaiver was AA this year (and last year) ... also I will try and post top 10 teams and top 25 predictions for each class before states .. then ideally top 50 for AAA
ReplyDeleteKunzweiler ran away from the field winning with a cushion. Groh fell back again.
ReplyDeleteTeam
CV 1st - 3 points over LD
LD 2nd
Hershey 3rd
Hempfield 4th
What happened with Groh? Did he fall? Or just fade big time that last mile? I hope the kid can keep it together at states.
ReplyDelete--ForrestKCRN
He faded. He tried to chase Kunzweiler up the hills and gave it too much
ReplyDeleteKunzweiler led from about halfway through the race to the finish
ReplyDeleteGroh was fighting for third with 600m to go and he died. He made a mistake, give him a break, his team made states so there is still plenty of time for him to prove himself there because there is no doubt he is a sleeper for a state medal.
ReplyDeleteAlso big shoutout to Alec Kunzweiler. I don't know about everyone else but I was definently not expecting him to win, top ten for sure but not a victory. Awesome for him though! Good job Alec that was a ballsy race!
DeleteJust curious, could anyone tell me how tough the course is and what the conditions were like?
ReplyDeleteD3 is held at the same course as the state meet. So the course is very difficult. I went to watch the D11 race today and the conditions there were really good, ground was solid. Hasn't been much rainfall in PA this week so I'd guess ground conditions were pretty good, but I could be wrong.
DeleteAs for D11 nice job to Shearn who had an easy victory on a very curvy course. Congrats to all the competitors there today, it was fun to watch.
--ForrestKCRN
The conditions were muddy in some parts but it got torn up a little by the end of the day. AA boys was the 5th race of the day and AAA boys was the 6th so there was a lot of runners that tore up the course before those races
ReplyDelete