Some Thoughts

I'm preparing my predictions for the upcoming state meet and they should be up sometime early in the week. If you want to get in a states fantasy draft again let me know ASAP on Facebook. The draft will be online sometime later this week and I will be making the group soon.

Moving on to some things I noticed throughout the week of District action.

If you are one of those guys in District 1 who was just barely edged out for a trip to states, do not look at the A results this weekend. With the course in the conditions its projected to be in, there will probably be medalists in A who don't break 18 minutes. Just a rough projection, but if you are Tristan Marcelis or Brad Rivera that hurts right about now.

That being said I think A may have the best group out front. AA will have the best race for the title with 3 huge guns out front in Shearn, Jaskowak and Todaro, but A has probably the best top 5 out of all the classes with Jones, Galassi, Smathers, Williams and Jewett. That is quite a front group. After that, however, I'm sorry to say it is a shame that the A class was created. I'm sure those guys in that top group of A don't want to be known as A champions, they want to be known as state champions and they want their shot at guys like Shearn and Quinn and all those guys. But hey, that's the way it is and that's the way I gotta predict it.

The AA race out front will be very exciting. I'm really torn between who I want to pick to win this thing because I honestly feel any of the three I mentioned above could take Gold in the fastest time of the day. That being said, I can't pick Todaro because I do believe in that pesky District 3 course curse, and I can't bring myself to pick Jaskowak after two really hard efforts against Pondel and Kennedy (possibly the top 2 runners in AAA). Especially, when Brendan Shearn has only had a relaxed meet with good conditions where I saw him run very easily to a huge victory. Plus he is the defending state champion, and since I can't see Quinn winning again this year, I feel obligated to go Shearn. For those of you who have been reading my stuff for a while, that will probably come as a bit of a surprise considering I have been a big Jaskowak supporter over the past few months, dating back to spring track, and I picked against Shearn on multiple occassions over the past few months (he pretty much always proved me wrong admittedly). But hey, I'm adaptable.

In AAA the race is anyone's guess who will win. But I do want to remind you that guys like Tony Russell are at a serious disadvantage in their quest for the title. The state title in AAA hasn't been won by a runner who didn't grab a state medal the year before in over a decade now. At Mazzacco not getting a medal was a huge surprise. That leaves me with a few names to consider for the title, namely Pondel and Kennedy, but I can't count out guys like Harriman, Quinn, DiSilvio and even Tom Coyle. But as of right now I am leaning towards picking a guy who is not even on the list of runners I just named. I haven't quite decided.

I will say this, in the last 6 years, the only guy to win Districts and States on consecutive weekends was Brad Miles of North Penn, who went on to win Northeast Regionals after that. The state champion hasn't been from outside the big 3 districts (1, 3, and 7) in a long time as well. You would have to go back to at least the 90s if I'm not mistaken.

As for team title races, I still feel strongly about the team medalists being O'Hara and Henderson. My leanings go O'Hara's way this weekend coming up. NA always has the potential to surprise, but I think they are a year or two away from being where they need to be, and losing Meehan will be no minor hindrance. Henderson looked very good this weekend at Lehigh, but the state course has not been friendly to them in recent years. Meanwhile, O'Hara has peaked perfectly at states the past two years. And I will tell you one thing, there is no way Kevin James isn't incredibly motivated for this weekend coming up. Hopefully, he doesn't do anything crazy.

Lastly, a few other story lines to consider. Brent Kennedy is coming off the highest finish at states by a sophomore since Vince McNally. McNally not only never won a state title, but never placed higher than he did as a sophomore at states. Kennedy will look to break that trend.

A freshman hasn't grabbed a medal at states since McNally did. Jake Brophy of CB East is looking to be the first to do in 8 years. In recent years, Freshman have struggled to even break into the top 50 at the state championships. Out of champions in the last 4 years or so, Ryan Gil is the highest freshman finisher at states, just outside the top 50.

Alec Kunzweiler is looking to break the curse on District 3 champions. Craig Miller was the last D3 state champion in 2005 when he won his third straight title.

When examining the past 10 state meets or so defending state champions have retained their crown roughly 50% of the time. There are two defending state champions in this race hoping to have the coin land on heads.