Sophomores by ForrestCRN

Here is an interesting been of analysis given to me by my friend ForrestCRN. Hope you find it interesting as well.

Since 1997 there have been 38 sophomore medalists in AAA. That’s an average of 2.53 sophomore medalists a year, and there has been two years (‘06 and ’02) with no medalists. 9 of these 38 (23%) have gone on to be state champions, and 5 of them won it there junior year and only 2 of them repeated (Coval in ’98 and ’99, and Miller in ’03-’05). Of these champions there places have been 2nd, 2nd, 4th, 1st, 25th, 24th, 10th, 20th , and 20th. The best year for this grade was in 2005 with 5 medalists (3, 15, 20, 24, and 25). Dennin (24th that year) went on to win 2 years later, when McNally (3rd) was 18th as a senior.

Being a state medalists as a sophomore definitely has its benefits since ¼ of the time they will go on to win, and never before have two sophomores medaled in the same class and both gone on to win titles (one as a junior and other as a senior). This cannot happen this year, since Quinn was the only sophomore state medalists in his class.

Last year we had two medalists, Brent Kennedy and Caleb Wakeley. Kennedy is definitely one of the top AAA guys now, while Wakeley may have been injured or sick this season. Guys who just missed medaling include Tony Russell (27th) and Ross Wilson (34th).

Looking on to this year, who are the stand out sophomores who have a shot at medaling?

Kevin James and Sam Webb are the two that come to mind that would continue the sophomore medaling trend. I’ve got James as 20th on my list, which bodes well since 2 of the 3 sophomore medalists who were 20th went on to win state titles, while Webb will have to work to crack the top 25.

Other sophomores to look for in the top 50 will be Dominic Stroh and Brad Foust from Altoona. They’d need to have a great race, but Altoona has brought out some great state finishes in the past with guys like Endress who was 14th as a SO. Eric Diestelow from WCE also has a shot of cracking the top 50. Most of the NA SO’s will be in the 40’s-60’s as well.

The sophomore discussion leads to two last questions:

Will Conner Quinn be part of the 60% or 40%? And will Kennedy be the 10th sophomore medalist turned state champion?