Team Preview

Here is a little team preview for you.

AAA
The big debate will finally be settled! Remember this summer when my blog just started blowing up with O'Hara v. Henderson debate! Well that all comes to a dramatic conclusion this weekend and after Saturday we will know which team is better. There are no more excuses. Of course NA and CRN and heck LaSalle and CValley all want to break into that top 2 and they have not forgot that there are medals on the line at this meet. Ultimately I'm excited to see it all unfold and I hope you are as well.

1. O'Hara- O'Hara is a better team than they were a year ago when they were far and away the best team in the state. But they still very well may lose on Saturday. Henderson is very good. I'm holding on to my belief in O'Hara, however. James has taken the next step and is ready to run with the big boys. Pitone and Pastore are years improved off top 50 finishes last year. Savage is a title contender and Hayes and Belfatto are nice insurance legs. Plus they still are bitter from last year's state meet and that goes a long way. Take it from a guy who is feeling similar (much smaller scale of course) after today.

2. Henderson- The hot up and coming dynasty is finally developing into the dream team we talked about over the summer with Russell and Barchet leading the charge. The young guys behind them are developing well. I still have no idea what 7 will be on the line for this meet, but they have the depth that will make them dangerous regardless. The key for me is, and you guys can all criticize the crap out of me for this, but they still are young and they are still relatively unproven on the state course. Can't pull the trigger on the upset for that reason.

3. NA- NA really exceeded my expectations. I knew they would be good but I had no reason to believe they would be this tight at the front. Unfortunately, the tough state course and a young squad without a senior leader, Meehan, could make it tough for them to keep that tight pack together. I see a NA team of a few years ago, 3rd at states but the top PA team at Regionals. They may lose to CRN this weekend however, depending on the strength of CRN's 4-5 young guys.

4. CRN- If they scored XC to 3 guys these guys would be right in the hunt for the state title. Unfortunately, it's scored to 5 and CRN needs to have a step up day from their 4-5 guys to challenge for a podium spot. Those two guys are young and inexperienced on the course which could spell disaster. I see them as running solid and the top 3 pulling them along to 4th and maybe even 3rd, but enough to challenge Henderson.

5. CValley- I'm hoping they continue the trend of running well at states despite Districts being at Hershey. I think they have more than they had at Districts in the tank and I think that will help them shoot up the state rankings. Coburn has some room to improve as well which would be a nice help.

6. Mt. Lebanon- They had an off day at WPIALs for the second straight year, but I am banking on them coming back strong at states for the second straight year. They have experience on the course and have some underrated talent on the roster which should move them back up the state rankings as well.

7. LaSalle- They are rounding into top shape at the right time and finally getting healthy. However, the major risk with picking them is that they only have 5 guys. For all 5 guys to have a good day at the state course you need some luck. In predictions, I can't assume that luck is going to happen so I've dropped them a bit below where their talent alone would place them.

8. Hershey- I see big bounce back races for Demko and Hamilton which should pull the pack up a bit as well. I think they have proven a resilient team all season and should continue to at states.

9. Great Valley- I think they have run this race enough to fix some of their previous issues. Billy Wolffe will be the big runner for them at states I think.

10. West Chester East- I somehow always find myself picking against these guys and they always prove me worng. Well they have limited experience on this course and some young guys in the bunch who have done mostly flat, fast courses. But I invite them to continue to prove me wrong.

11. Lower Dauphin- I think Lower Dauphin had a great day at Districts and really impressed me, exceeding expectations. However, I think that could spell disaster this weekend if they can't repeat the magic on a very difficult course for magic. The only bright spot is Groh can definitely improve on his place.

12. Fox Chapel- See Lower Dauphin above but subtract the last part about having a guy with Groh like upside.

AA
Pottsgrove has been the favorite ever since they dominated the Pre-States meet. They return everyone from their varsity squad last year and they have the confidence after a great District meet. I still haven't given up on the Grove City bandwagon, however. Maybe it is because I used to see Pottsgrove all the time in AAA and they didn't scare me so I'm biased, or maybe it is because of Dan Jaskowak leading the charge for Grove City. I think that Jaskowak will be more valuable against teams with nice packs like Pottsgrove and Scranton Prep at the state meet than he was at the Pre State meet. I also am counting on a big race from Benka. That being said, I don't make this pick with a lot of confidence. Scranton Prep could very well knock Grove City back to 3rd. Quaker Valley is the defending state champion squad and always shows up at the state meet. Bonner has a nice pack as well and a front runner of their own who can make noise.

1. Grove City
2. Pottsgrove
3. Scranton Prep
4. Quaker Valley
5. Bonner

A
There is honestly not much I know about the A team title race, unfortunately I haven't been following it very closely. I know that the state meet will be kind of a front loaded meet and good front runners will be very valuable. I think Northeast Bradford is the clear title favorite because they have two big guns out front. The packs of teams like Masterman I don't think will have enough low sticks to beat them. Elk Lake also has a front runner. I think Saegertown has the best shot of pulling the upset card. They had a great district meet and have room to improve this weekend. It should be a pretty tight race and its going to come down to the #5 runners in a lot of situations.

1. Northeast Bradford
2. Saegertown
3. Elk Lake
4. Masterman
5. Vincentian Academy
6. Fairview